Appendix F

Probability

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Appendix F Probability
What You Should Learn
1 Determine the probability that an event will occur. 2 Use counting principles to determine the probability that an event will occur.

Why You Should Learn It

Counting methods can be used to determine probabilities of real-life events. For instance, in Exercise 44 on page F8, you can determine the probability of having a winning lottery ticket.

The Probability of an Event

The probability of an event is a number from 0 to 1 that indicates the likelihood that the event will occur. An event that is certain to occur has a probability of 1. An event that cannot occur has a probability of 0. An event that is equally likely 1 to occur or not occur has a probability of 2 or 0.5.
Probability of 0: Event cannot occur. Probability of 0.5: Event is equally likely to occur or not occur. Probability of 1: Event is certain to occur.

1 Determine the probability that an event will occur.

0.5

The Probability of an Event

Consider a sample space S that is composed of a finite number of outcomes, each of which is equally likely to occur. A subset E of the sample space is an event. The probability that an outcome E will occur is P Number of outcomes in event . Number of outcomes in sample space

Example 1 Finding the Probability of an Event

a. You select a card from a standard deck of 52 cards. The probability that the card is an ace is P Number of aces in the deck Number of cards in the deck 4 52 1 . 13

b. On a multiple-choice test, you know that the answer to a question is not (a) or (d), but you are not sure about (b), (c), and (e). If you guess, the probability that you are wrong is P Number of wrong answers Number of possible answers 2 . 3

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Appendix F

Probability

Example 2 Conducting a Poll

The Centers for Disease Control surveyed 11,631 high school students. The students were asked whether they considered themselves to be a good weight, underweight, or overweight. The results are shown in Figure F.1.

Female
Good weight 3082 Overweight 1776 Good weight 4389

Male

Underweight 366

Overweight 961

Underweight 1057

Figure F.1

a. You choose a female at random from those surveyed. The probability that she said she was underweight is P Number of females who answered underweight Number of females in survey 3082 366 5224 0.07. b. You choose a person who answered underweight from those surveyed. The probability that the person is female is P Number of females who answered underweight Number in survey who answered underweight 366 366 1057 366 366 1776

366 1423 0.26.

Polls such as the one described in Example 2 are often used to make inferences about a population that is larger than the sample. For instance, from Example 2, you might infer that 7% of all high school girls consider themselves to be underweight. When you make such an inference, it is important that those surveyed are representative of the entire population.

Appendix F

Probability

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Example 3 Using Area to Find Probability

You have just stepped into the tub to take a shower when one of your contact lenses falls out. (You have not yet turned on the water.) Assuming the lens is equally likely to land anywhere on the bottom of the tub, what is the probability that it lands in the drain? Use the dimensions shown in Figure F.2.

Drain
} 2 in.

26 in.

50 in. Figure F.2

Solution Because the area of the tub bottom is 26 50 1300

Area of tub width length

square inches and the area of the drain is 12

Area of drain r2

square inches, the probability that the lens lands in the drain is P 1300 0.0024.

Example 4 The Probability of Inheriting Certain Genes

Common parakeets have genes that can produce any one of four feather colors. Green: Blue: Yellow: White: BBCC, BBCc, BbCC, BbCc BBcc, Bbcc bbCC, bbCc bbcc

BC

Bc

bC

bc

BC BBCC BBCc BbCC BbCc Bc BBCc BBcc bC BbCC BbCc bc BbCc Figure F.3 Bbcc BbCc bbCC bbCc Bbcc bbCc bbcc

Use the Punnett square shown in Figure F.3 to find the probability that an offspring of two green parents (both with BbCc feather genes) will be yellow. Note that each parent passes along a B or b gene and a C or c gene. Solution The probability that an offspring will be yellow is P Number of yellow possibilities Number of possibilities 3 . 16

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Appendix F

Probability

2 Use counting principles to determine the probability that an event will occur.

Using Counting Methods to Find Probabilities

In the following examples, you will see how the basic counting principles are used to determine the probability that an event will occur.

Example 5 The Probability of a Royal Flush

Standard 52-Card Deck
A K Q J A K Q J A K Q A K

Five cards are dealt at random from a standard deck of 52 playing cards (see Figure F.4). What is the probability that the cards are 10-J-Q-K-A of the same suit? Solution The number of possible five-card hands from a deck of 52 cards is 2,598,960. Because only four of these five-card hands are 52C5 10-J-Q-K-A of the same suit, the probability that the hand contains these cards is P 4 2,598,960 1 . 649,740

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2

J 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2

Q J 10 9 8

5 4 3 2
7 6

Example 6 Conducting a Survey

A survey was conducted of 500 adults who had worn Halloween costumes. Each person was asked how he or she acquired a Halloween costume: created it, rented it, bought it, or borrowed it. The results are shown in Figure F.5. What is the probability that the first four people who were polled all created their costumes? Solution To answer this question, you need to use the formula for the number of combinations twice. First, find the number of ways to choose four people from the 360 who created their own costumes.
360C4

Figure F.4

Created 360

Borrowed 20 Rented 60

360 4

359 3

358 357 2 1

688,235,310

Bought 60 Figure F.5

Next, find the number of ways to choose four people from the 500 who were surveyed.
500C4

500 4

499 3

498 497 2 1

2,573,031,125

The probability that all of the first four people surveyed created their own costumes is the ratio of these two numbers. P Number of ways to choose 4 from 360 Number of ways to choose 4 from 500 688,235,310 2,573,031,125 0.267

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Probability

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Appendix F Exercises
Review Concepts, Skills, and Problem Solving
Keep mathematically in shape by doing these exercises before the problems of this section. Properties and Definitions In Exercises 1 6, complete the property of logarithms. 1. 2. 3. 4. log a1 log a a log a a x log a uv u 5. log a v 6. log a un Rewriting Expressions In Exercises 710, use the properties of logarithms to expand the expression as a sum, difference, or multiple of logarithms. 7. log2 x2y 8. log5 x x2 1 Graphs and Models 11. Sales Annual sales y of a product x years after it is introduced are approximated by y 1 10,000 . 4e x 3 9. ln 7 x 3 10. ln u u 2 2
2

(a) Use a graphing calculator to graph the equation. (b) Use the graph in part (a) to approximate the time when annual sales are y 5000 units. (c) Use the graph in part (a) to estimate the maximum level of annual sales. 12. Investment An investment is made in an account that pays 5.5% interest, compounded continuously. What is the effective yield of this investment?

Explaining Concepts
Sample Space In Exercises 14, determine the number of outcomes in the sample space for the experiment. 1. One letter from the alphabet is chosen. 2. A six-sided die is tossed twice and the sum is recorded. 3. Two county supervisors are selected from five supervisors, A, B, C, D, and E, to study a recycling plan. 4. A salesperson makes product presentations in three homes per day. In each home there may be a sale (denote by Y) or there may be no sale (denote by N). 7. A basketball tournament between two teams consists of three games. For each game, your team may win (denote by W) or lose (denote by L). 8. Two students are randomly selected from four students, A, B, C, and D.

In Exercises 9 and 10, you are given the probability that an event will occur. Find the probability that the event will not occur. 9. p 0.35 10. p 0.80

Sample Space In Exercises 5 8, list the outcomes in the sample space for the experiment. 5. A taste tester must taste and rank three brands of yogurt, A, B, and C, according to preference. 6. A coin and a die are tossed.

In Exercises 11 and 12, you are given the probability that an event will not occur. Find the probability that the event will occur. 11. p 0.82 12. p 1.00

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Appendix F

Probability Family Incomes In Exercises 2730, use the circle graph, which shows the percent of families in the United States that earned incomes in each given dollar range for the year 2000. Answer the question for a family selected at random from the population. (Source: U.S. Census Bureau)
Under $15,000 9.5% $15,000$24,999 11.5% $25,000$34,999 12.0% $35,000$49,999 15.9% $100,000 and over 17.0% $75,000$99,999 12.6%

Coin Tossing In Exercises 1316, a coin is tossed three times. Find the probability of the specified event. Use the sample space S HHH, HHT, HTH, HT T, THH, THT, T TH, T T T .

See Example 1. 13. 14. 15. 16. The event of getting exactly two heads The event of getting a tail on the second toss The event of getting at least one head The event of getting no more than two heads

Playing Cards In Exercises 1720, a card is drawn from a standard deck of 52 playing cards. Find the probability of drawing the indicated card. 17. A red card 19. A face card 18. A queen 20. A black face card

$50,000$74,999 21.5%

Tossing a Die In Exercises 2124, a six-sided die is tossed. Find the probability of the specified event. 21. 22. 23. 24. The number is a 5. The number is a 7. The number is no more than 5. The number is at least 1.

United States Blood Types In Exercises 25 and 26, use the circle graph, which shows the percent of people in the United States with each blood type. See Example 2. (Source: American Red Cross)
Type B+ 9% Type AB 1% Type AB+ 3% Type A 6%

Type A+ 34% Type B 2% Type O 7%

Type O+ 38%

25. A person is selected at random from the United States population. What is the probability that the person does not have blood type B ? 26. What is the probability that a person selected at random from the United States population does have blood type B ? How is this probability related to the probability found in Exercise 25?

27. What is the probability that the family earned at least $100,000? 28. What is the probability that the family earned less than $15,000? 29. What is the probability that the family earned less than $50,000? 30. What is the probability that the family earned at least $25,000? 31. Multiple-Choice Test A student takes a multiplechoice test in which there are five choices for each question. Find the probability that the first question is answered correctly given the following conditions. (a) The student has no idea of the answer and guesses at random. (b) The student can eliminate two of the choices and guesses from the remaining choices. (c) The student knows the answer. 32. Multiple-Choice Test A student takes a multiplechoice test in which there are four choices for each question. Find the probability that the first question is answered correctly given the following conditions. (a) The student has no idea of the answer and guesses at random. (b) The student can eliminate two of the choices and guesses from the remaining choices. (c) The student knows the answer. 33. Class Election Three people are running for class president. It is estimated that the probability that candidate A will win is 0.5 and the probability that candidate B will win is 0.3. What is the probability that either candidate A or candidate B will win?

Appendix F
Your friends arrival time (in minutes past 5:00 P.M.)

Probability

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30 15

Geometry In Exercises 35 38, the specified probability is the ratio of two areas. See Example 3. 35. Meteorites The largest meteorite in the United States was found in the Willamette Valley of Oregon in 1902. Earth contains 57,510,000 square miles of land and 139,440,000 square miles of water. What is the probability that a meteorite that hits the Earth will fall onto land? What is the probability that a meteorite that hits the Earth will fall into water? 36. Game A child uses a spring-loaded device to shoot a marble into the square box shown in the figure. The base of the box is horizontal and the marble has an equal likelihood of coming to rest at any point in the box. In parts (a)(d), find the probability that the marble comes to rest in the specified region. (a) The red center (b) The blue ring (c) The purple border (d) Not in the yellow ring

Yo u

Yo u ar rf riv rie ef nd irs ar t riv es fir st

34. Winning an Election Jones, Smith, and Thomas are candidates for public office. It is estimated that Jones and Smith have about the same probability of winning, and Thomas is believed to be twice as likely to win as either of the others. Find the probability of each candidate winning the election.

60 45

You meet You meet You don't meet

15

30

45

60

Your arrival time (in minutes past 5:00 P.M.)

Figure for 37

38. Estimating A coin of diameter d is dropped onto a paper that contains a grid of squares d units on a side (see figure). (a) Find the probability that the coin covers a vertex of one of the squares in the grid. (b) Repeat the experiment 100 times and use the results to approximate .

d d

2 2 2 2 2

24 in

In Exercises 39 and 40, complete the Punnett square and answer the questions. See Example 4. 39. Girl or Boy? The genes that determine the genders of humans are denoted by XX (female) and XY (male). (See figure on next page.) (a) What is the probability that a newborn will be a girl? a boy?

24 in.

37. Meeting Time You and a friend agree to meet at a favorite restaurant between 5:00 and 6:00 P.M. The one who arrives first will wait 15 minutes for the other, after which the first person will leave (see figure). What is the probability that the two of you actually meet, assuming that your arrival times are random within the hour?

(b) Explain why it is equally likely that a newborn baby will be a boy or a girl.

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Appendix F
Female X X Male ? X

Probability
A B ? o ? ? ? o ?

44. Lottery You buy a lottery ticket inscribed with a five-digit number. On the designated day, five digits (from 0 to 9, inclusive) are randomly selected. What is the probability that you have a winning ticket?

? Figure for 40

Figure for 39

40. Blood Types There are four basic human blood types: A (AA or Ao), B (BB or Bo), AB (AB), and O (oo). (a) What is the blood type of each parent in the figure? (b) What is the probability that their offspring will have blood type A? B? AB? O?

In Exercises 4150, some of the sample spaces are large. Therefore, you should use the counting principles discussed in Section 11.5. See Examples 5 and 6. 41. Game Show On a game show, you are given five digits to arrange in the proper order to form the price of a car. If you arrange them correctly, you win the car. Find the probability of winning if you know the correct position of only one digit and must guess the positions of the other digits. 42. Game Show On a game show, you are given four digits to arrange in the proper order to form the price of a grandfather clock. What is the probability of winning if (a) you guess the position of each digit? (b) you know the first digit, but must guess the remaining three? 43. Shelving Books A parent instructs a young child to place a five-volume set of books on a bookshelf. Find the probability that the books are in the correct order if the child places them at random.

45. Preparing for a Test An instructor gives her class a list of 10 study problems, from which she will select eight to be answered on an exam. You know how to solve eight of the problems. What is the probability that you will be able to answer all eight questions on the exam correctly? 46. Committee Selection A committee of three students is to be selected from a group of three girls and five boys. Find the probability that the committee is composed entirely of girls. 47. Defective Units A shipment of 10 food processors to a certain store contains two defective units. You purchase two of these food processors as birthday gifts for friends. Determine the probability that you get both defective units. 48. Defective Units A shipment of 12 compact disc players contains two defective units. A husband and wife buy three of these compact disc players to give to their children as Christmas gifts. (a) What is the probability that none of the three units is defective? (b) What is the probability that at least one of the units is defective? 49. Card Selection Five cards are selected from a standard deck of 52 cards. Find the probability that all hearts are selected. 50. Card Selection Five cards are selected from a standard deck of 52 cards. Find the probability that two aces and three queens are selected.

Explaining Concepts
51. The probability of an event must be a real number in what interval? Is the interval open or closed? 52. The probability of an event is 3. What is 4 the probability that the event does not occur? Explain. 53. What is the sum of the probabilities of all the occurrences of outcomes in a sample space? Explain. The weather forecast indicates that the probability of rain is 40%. Explain what this means.

54.