UTAH CLIMATE UPDATE, ISSUE 35

SEPTEMBER, 2011

Utah Climate Update

September Feature

Four-Corners High
High pressure over the fourWyoming. One variation of the corners region, combined with North American ridge is formation is monsoonal ow from the Pacic, formation of a full-edged anticyclone dominated Utahs weather for the a bona de high pressure system. month of August. In last months This happens when isobars close and newsletter we discussed the a fully anticyclonic (clockwise) ow mechanisms underlying the Southwest develops. Monsoon and its critical importance This is precisely what developed to the region. This month its worth this past month over the Four Corners spending some time on the largerregion. Combined with a strong scale atmospheric circulation pattern monsoonal ow, the pattern produces that directs this moisture as it ows a readily visible signature in the into the regions afternoon southwest. satellite and radar A semiimagesa ring of permanent convection, roughly feature to the centered over the region is the Four Corners and North American covering large sub-tropical portions of ridge. This Arizona, Utah, tongue of high Wyoming, pressure migrates Colorado and New northward with Mexico. Also the onset of high evident in the summer, signature is a Figure 1. Circulation around high pressure is anticyclonic, or clockwise. channeling the notable absence of moist monsoonal ow well into convective activity near the center of Arizona, Utah, Colorado and New the High. Its likely this consistent Mexico. Just how far north this ridge pattern arises from the competing decides to venture determines to large inuences of the tendency of warm extent the amount and location of surface air to rise vs. the tendency of convective rainfall various locations air within a high pressure system to receive. If the ridge stays south, the sink. Further from the center of the monsoonal ow is cut off and high, the thermally driven convection summertime rain is suppressed. wins. But underneath the highest Further north, stretching toward the pressure, subsidence dominates. Four Corners, and the monsoonal ow is drawn deep into Utah and

THIS MONTH...
9.1
SEPTEMBER FEATURE

Four-Corners High 9.2

SEPTEMBER FEATURE

First Freeze 9.3

AUGUST REVIEW

A look back at Aug precipitation precipitation temperatures Vegetation Drought Response Index 9.4
CLIMATE NOTES

National and global notes of interest Record low Arctic Ice Texas Drought 9.5

BACK PAGE

Ongoing at the Utah Climate Center Arid China Africa Research A New Grant

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UTAH CLIMATE UPDATE, ISSUE 35

SEPTEMBER, 2011

High Pressure

low- level moisture

Figure 2. Drawing on Pacific monsoonal moisture, the Four-Corners High produces a ring of afternoon thunderstorms across Arizona, Utah, Wyoming, Colorado and New Mexico. Also evident in this signature is suppressed convection at the center of the high pressure system, where sinking air (subsidence) is strongest.

September Feature

First Freeze?
Just when can you expect that rst freeze this year? Or any year? From nally killing off the tomatoes and the grasshoppers to reminding us its time to get a new windshield scraper for the coming winter, rst freeze dates dened as the rst day in which the daily minimum temperature drops below 32 degrees F are of little more than casual interest to most of us. But for the agricultural community rst (and last) freeze dates of the season can have a critical impact on operational decisions. Consequently, at the request of the Utah Agricultural Experiment Station (UAES), housed at Utah State University, the Utah Climate Center recently undertook development of a new method for location-specic rst-freeze date forecasting. Taking a climatological, rather than meteorological, approach, the effort is underway. In this rst effort, a pilot project, the forecasts have been made for six location in Cache County. The UAES owns and operates several research farms throughout Cache Valley. With the wet weather this spring, crops are about 30 days behind normal in the valley. Decisions need to be made

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UTAH CLIMATE UPDATE, ISSUE 35

SEPTEMBER, 2011

concerning when to harvest cornspecically, relation) between surface temperatures of the station whether to chop it for silage or to hold out for a high and of the operational forecast model (NOAAs CFS). moisture corn harvest. To produce the forecast, the predicted September UCCs approach to the question involves analysis of mean temperature over northern Utah is "plugged in historical data, combined with the National Oceanic to" to the regression functions of one station. The and Atmospheric Administrations (NOAA) Climate output, then, is the predicted date of rst fall freeze Forecast system, or CFS a climate model using for that particular station. The results are depicted in gridded data. The UAES Fig. 3 below. Broadly, they tell October 6 locations are tailor us most locations in October 5 ( 5 days) made for the pilot Cache Valley can ( 5 days) study, in that each expect a rst freeze location is close this year in the rst to week of October. October 2 meteorological This is tied to the fact ( 5 days) observing that the CFS October 3 stations September ( 5 days) (specically, the temperature data comes forecast October 4 from nearby remains slightly ( 5 days) COOP warmer than normal, stations). according to NOAA. Empirical analysis of Further, there is a the historical data, 67% probability that going back 30 years to the rst freeze will 1981, shows that, at occur within 5 days of some locations, the rst the highest day of fall freeze (and probability date (the October 1 last spring freeze) is a dates shown in the ( 5 days) function of monthly gure), and a 95% surface temperature. probability that it will That is, there appears occur within 9 days of to be a signicant the given date. (In correlation between Figure 3. First freeze predictions for various locations around Cache Valley. This is a trial run, statistical lingo, thats with planned expansion to the entire state. Septembers mean daily a 1-sigma uncertainty minimum temperatures of 5 days and a 2and when the rst freeze occurs. Using this sigma uncertainty of 9 days.) relationship, UCCs Dr. Simon Wang built a model Eventually the results will be translated to (specically, a regression model) relating historical gridded data for the state and the region freeze dates and September mean temperatures for assuming, that is, the method proves accurate. various stations over a 30-year timespan. He then constructed a regression function (a mathematical

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UTAH CLIMATE UPDATE, ISSUE 35

SEPTEMBER, 2011

Looking back at August

Precipitation
Percent of 30-year mean
0 5 10 25 50 75 90 100 110 125 150 200 300 400 600

30 days (August)

60 days

90 days

180 days

Precipitation across Utah in August was down considerably, compared to May and June. Climatologically, most of the state is now well below normal for the month. Still, owing to the wet spring, parts of of the state are closer to normal at the 3-month and 6-month timeframes.

Temperature
Departure from 30-year mean (F)
-10 -10 -5 -8 -8 -4 -6 -6 -3 -4 -4 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 0 0 2 2 1 4 4 2 6 6 3 8 8 4 10 10 5 30 days 90 days 365 days

30 days (August)

90 days

365 days

August temperatures across Utah were substantially above normal in contrast to July, which saw essentially seasonal temperatures. High pressure centered over the Four Corners brought sinking and warming air, with Utahs southeast and southwest bearing the brunt of the warmth. Still, the imprint of a cool spring and cold winter remain at the 3-month and 12month timescales.

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UTAH CLIMATE UPDATE, ISSUE 35

SEPTEMBER, 2011

Looking back at August

Vegetation Drought Response Index
The Veg DRI is a hybrid drought index intended to help better assess drought from the standpoint of agriculture. This product combines climate-based drought index data (e.g., the Palmer Drought Severity Index and the Standardized Precipitation Index); vegetation conditions (based on satellite observations); and biophysical parameters (e.g., land cover, soil type, ecology, elevation). Spatial resolution of the Veg DRI is about 1 km, and is updated at 2-week intervals during the growing seasons.

August 22, 2011

Vegetation Condition
Extreme Drought Severe Drought Moderate Drought Pre-Drought Near Normal Unusually Moist Very Moist Extremely Moist Out of Season Water

Source: National Drought Mitigation Center

The National Drought Mitigation Center produces VegDRI in collaboration with the US Geological Survey's (USGS) Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS), and the High Plains Regional Climate Center (HPRCC), with sponsorship from the US Department of Agriculture's (USDA) Risk Management Agency (RMA).

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UTAH CLIMATE UPDATE, ISSUE 35

SEPTEMBER, 2011

Climate Notes
Global
Polar ice cap From the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), Arctic sea ice has nearly tied the record minimum extent in area for the month of August. And
Arctic Sea Ice Extent

from the University of Washingtons PIOMAS group, Arctic sea ice volume is at a record low.
Arctic Sea Ice Volume

National
Texas Drought At the end of July, the U.S. state of Texas had experienced its driest AugustJuly (12month) period on record. As of August 23rd, close to 100 percent of the state was experiencing some level of drought and 78 percent fell into the exceptional category, the highest drought category as determined by the U.S. Drought Monitor. The agriculture industry has been exceptionally hard hit. According to a media report updated on August 17th, from November 2010 to August 1st, 2011, Texas suffered an estimated $5.2 billion U.S. dollars in crop and livestock losses, surpassing the previous annual record loss of $4.1 billion U.S. dollars in 2006. The losses this year are expected to grow as the drought shows no signs of abating. Additionally, wildre danger was great across the arid region. A 30-acre blaze in the central Texas town of Leander destroyed 15 homes. One particularly vivid graphic, created by Texas state climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon, illustrates the historical relationship between temperature and rainfall. Shown below, we see (not surprisingly) that warmer summers are drier. But striking in the data is just how far 2011 resides outside the historical envelope.
88 2011 Jun-Aug Ave. Temperature (F)

Texas Summers

definitely not normal

1934 1980 1998 2010

the normal

83

78 Drought Intensity
Abnormally Dry Moderate Severe Extreme Exceptional

14

Jun-Aug Total Rainfall (inches)

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UTAH CLIMATE UPDATE, ISSUE 35

SEPTEMBER, 2011

From the Director

Come September, its time to think of Autumn. The dropping angle of the midday sun and the rst crisp mornings since early July. Here in Cache Valley, we even dipped into the 40s this morning a welcome relief from the heat of last week. And September means the start of another semester here on the USU campus. Taking a deep breath Arid China... Completing a hat trick of Asian travel this summer (including Mongolia and Nepal), I attended a conference in Yangling, Shaanxi, China this past month, regarding the efcient use of agricultural water in arid regions. This visit complements a previous visit to China and research we here at the UCC have undertaken in the region. Africa Research ... Just to make sure we touch as many continents as possible in this months newsletter, Id like to announce the publication of UCCs most recent piece of research, Observed change in Sahel rainfall, circulations, African easterly waves, and Atlantic hurricanes since 1979, in press in the International Journal of Geophysics. In this paper we examine the recent increase in the Sahel rainfall. The rainfall that has been observed to be increasing over the Sahel is accounted for by enhancements in both the jet stream. This increase signals an increased potential for the occurrence of ash oods along the northern Sahel. In addition, the analysis suggests that the change reveals a link to increased activity of intense hurricanes in the North Atlantic. A new grant Researchers here at the Utah Climate Center have recently been awarded a grant from the Bureau of Reclamation to study climate modeling in the Colorado River Basin. Specically, the study is entitled Effective Assessments for Climate Uncertainties in Dynamical Downscaling over the Colorado Regions. (Say that three times in a row!) Follow us on Twitter ... Between newsletters, be sure to follow us on Twitter (utclimatecenter).

UTAH CLIMATE CENTER

The Utah Climate Center is located on the Utah State University campus in Logan, UT.
Utah Climate Center Utah State University 4825 Old Main Hill Logan, UT 84322-4825 Telephone: 435-797-2190

Staff Staff

dr. robert gillies director dr. randy martin associate director marty booth staff meteorologist jobie carlisle technician dr. shih-yu (simon) wang assistant professor, PSC research associate, UCC dr. robert davies education / research associate Martin Schroeder staff meteorologist

Photo Credits
banner: Autumn in Zion National Park, courtesy of David Bostock (www.dbphotography.net) front page: Dixie National Forest in Autumn, courtesy of David C. Schultz (www.westlight.net) back page: Autumn in Zion National Park, courtesy of David Bostock (www.dbphotography.net))

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