The Social Science and challenges of implementing a strategy for 'Early Warnings' The Social Science and challenges

of implementing a strategy for 'Early Warnings' I expect you have heard of crowd dynamics within a sporting area stadium or in a busy train station but now think about a 5million person City being panicked into action not knowing where to go, what to do, how to do it We have considerable work to do in conjunction with setting up the science and hardware to enable a comprehensive early warning system we must prepare the people, the message receivers. And this include the Administration This briefing presentation will quickly review : the types of warning; how the warnings can assist us; which are the most threatening; which we should prioritize; how we should develop a strategy to react; how we address the challenge to prepare society to receive warnings; what technology can we install to provide warnings; what technology we can use to deliver the warning messages.

We have five different types of warning to consider. 1. Real time early warning; when the event has actually started but has yet to arrive at your location 2. Early Warning; when the event is known that it will happen imminently 3. Early Warning Forecast that the event will happen with consequence in the future. 4. Reliable prediction of an imminent event without precise timings. 5. Prediction of an event which may or may not happen. Why do I categorize warnings? I categorize so that we can identify and initiate or activate the Urgency that either society or

The Social Science and challenges of implementing a strategy for 'Early Warnings' administrations or critical infrastructure needs to receive and act upon the warning. Its down to time scales of the event happening & down to the urgency in which a sector within society must react either to mitigate, minimize, prepare for or to avoid the event. So lets review in what circumstance each type of warning can be of assistance to us. They all have a critical importance if we are to build resilience into our communities and if we are to minimize not only potentially Natural Hazard Disasters but also manmade disasters from within industry or by us changing our environment. You will note that these categories merge and mingle & simply offer a time line of potential event. I do not suggest that all sectors will prioritize a reaction in the same order. 1. Real Time Early Warnings I suggest are those in progress with imminent destructive power i.e. Tsunami, volcano, cyclone, wild fire, flash flood, glacier breakout, landslide and of coarse earthquake. When these events activate, we will want to know scale and countdown to impact. We will want to know the procedure to protect ourselves and minimize the effects upon critical infrastructure. Can we provide real time early warnings for all of these? Yes we can now. But more on that later. 2. Early Warnings refer to events beginning to happen, identified through a buildup of activity with a degree of uncertainty of how or to what scale it will affect you, such as an approaching cyclone, a developing flood, a remote bush fire, a volcano rumbling. These events should already be prepared for, practiced within society and should not come as a surprise. 3. Early Warning Forecast provides warning of longer term events i.e. the beginning of the hurricane/ cyclone season, the tornado season, a dormant but live volcano known to periodically activate, and of course Climate Change, and active seismic faultlines. These events have been accepted as threats to

The Social Science and challenges of implementing a strategy for 'Early Warnings' society and require administrations and society to build into their lives prepared contingency plans and mitigation strategies. 4. Reliable Prediction is using relatively new and developing science which has an increasing degree of reliability i.e. the threat of a local landslide, the potential of an earthquake. Yes this is possible and we have experienced considerable success rates recently through a variety of science, but I warn you, if we continue to ignore this developing and ever increasing reliable science, then we potentially leave many thousands in unnecessary risk. I ask we dont only think of science to provide these reliable predictions, nature itself offers some signs; we simply need to understand how to interpret. The type of events included within this category must not only be within a contingency plan but also within a society preparedness program. 5. Prediction is a little more uncertain, coming from a variety of sources, not only science. We should not ignore them, but we should keep them in context and certainly build them into any contingency review plan So which are most threatening? o It is either scale, surprise or extended period that creates the bigger threats to communities. o The size of flood or Earthquake or Tsunami o The lack of warning of the earthquake or landslide or tornado o The duration of flooding or a of storm or of a drought In the short term is has always been the Earthquake that causes biggest devastation not only to infrastructure but to the population also. The less frequent Tsunami can equally cause high casualties but over a larger area. #

The Social Science and challenges of implementing a strategy for 'Early Warnings' Prioritization o This must address the lack of early warnings for the potential instant devastating events such as Earthquakes and Tsunamis and Tornados, Flash Floods, Landslides. However this does not mean that the safe build programs are omitted, withdrawn or scaled down or that DR Education is cut back and even not initiated. All approaches to creating a resilient community must complement each other and need to work in parallel with full collaboration how we should develop a strategy to react to an early warning at administration level; o realization and perception of risk is a priority. Fact find of the Risk and of the options to mitigate. This may require integrating a variety of systems within one, not in competition but to enhance and maximize the potential of providing early warnings how we address the challenge to prepare society to receive warnings; o short , medium and long term approaches are needed. Training and dialogue are key factors, developing a culture within society of acceptance to participate, to take ownership o There will be different preparations for each sector of society, domestic to security to office to industry to critical infrastructure to administration o It is needing a totally different approach to how communities drill and exercise each year to anything considered or achieved to date. o As a policy If communities drilled for two days per year on random occasions, then when a reliable prediction was received, administrations could activate a drill, to prepare the community. No panic. Then when the actual event

The Social Science and challenges of implementing a strategy for 'Early Warnings' commenced the real time early warning system would simply alert them to the fact providing intelligent information enabling communities and individuals to take the best course of action. Again with No panic. Presently during the past two years reliable prediction systems have forecast and been correct within five days of actual occurrence; consequently: Emergency services would remain on standby with all drills for upto five days, as a matter of course or until the event, critical infrastructure can prepare, release pressure from dams, ensure maintenance materials are cleared, cancel leave, dispatch satellite groups, strengthen borders and secure facilities, military to go on alert, mothballed logistics prepared, hospitals will be aware to avoid critical operations etc, schools can take advantage to include the students in preparations. The question is does society have the will, the need, the enthusiasm to participate? Can we build a truly resilient culture within society? Or put another way, can society afford not to prepare what cost is the life of a dearest. We hear the critique that industry can not afford down days of production and service but. Can Industry and commerce afford not to participate? The consequences are staggering both in $cost and to society as a whole. 1billion for only 25,000 injured and 33 dead! Not taking into account damage to infrastructure and critical services.

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what technology can we install to provide warnings; o Ideally it requires a system that can integrate a wide range of early warning alarms, this save duplication, saves cost, is more easily managed and allows for secondary event warnings during crisis. Devices need to state of the art, easily compatible and controlled centrally and remotely if a

The Social Science and challenges of implementing a strategy for 'Early Warnings' national or regional net work is to be set up. SOLUZION Systems offers all requirements what technology do we need to use to deliver the warning messages. o Communications systems must be robust, supported even if without direct power. The system must be capable of being received by all people whether in their homes, cars, offices and industry. Or indeed walking in the street. SOLUZION Systems offers all requirements.
Discussion note by Garry de la Pomerai presented in Bangkok July 2011