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Dehydrating Conflict Author(s): Sandra L. Postel and Aaron T. Wolf Source: Foreign Policy, No. 126 (Sep. - Oct., 2001), pp. 60-67 Published by: Washingtonpost.Newsweek Interactive, LLC Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/3183260 Accessed: 01/10/2010 18:58
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DEHYDRAT

wentto waroverwater? the Remember lasttimetwonations not, Probably since hit as it was4,500years ago.Buttoday, demands water thelimits afinite of for on than And within are supply, conflicts spreading nations. more 50 countries unless move water toward they disputes mght five continents soonbespiraling that the on to quickly strike agreements howto share rivers flow across boundaries.By Sandra L. Postel and Aaron T. Wolf international
around wars alk water reverberates of
the globe these days. UnitedNations Kofi Secretary-General Annansaidlast for that March "fierce competition fresh watermaywell becomea sourceof conflictandwars of in thefuture," a recent and report theU.S.National Councilconcludesthat the likelihoodof Intelligence the will conflict increase interstate during next15 years water." the of "ascountries against limits available press and as thesewarnings alarmist, hisSomedismiss tory seems to be on their side. The only recorded incidentof an outrightwar over water was 4,500 years ago betweentwo Mesopotamiancity-states, LagashandUmma,in the regionwe now call southern Iraq. Conversely,between the years 805 and 1984, countries signedmorethan3,600 water-related treaties,many showing great creativityin dealing with this critical resource. An analysis of 1,831 events over the last 50 water-related international years reveals that two thirds of these encounters were of a cooperativenature.Nations agreed,for example, to implementjoint scientificor technologicalwork and signed 157 watertreaties.
Sandra L. Postel directs the Global WaterPolicy Project in Amherst, Massachusetts. She is also a senior fellow with WorldwatchInstitute and a visiting senior lecturerin environmentalstudiesat Mount Holyoke College.Aaron T Wolf is an associate professor of geography at Oregon State University's Department of Geosciences, and director of the TransboundaryFreshwaterDispute Database project.
60
FOREIGN POLICY

Others argue, however,that when it comes to water the past will not be a reliableguide to the future.A renewablebut not infiniteresource,fresh scarce:The amount water is becomingincreasingly to available the worldtoday is almostthe sameas it tradedblows,evenas was whenthe Mesopotamians increased. since1950, has demand steadily Just global the renewable supplyperpersonhasfallen58 percent as world populationhas swelledfrom2.5 billionto unlikeoil andmostotherstrate6 billion.Moreover, in freshwaterhasno substitute mostof gic resources, for its uses.It is essential growingfood, manufacturAndwhile humanhealth. inggoods,andsafeguarding over thatcooperation waterhas been historysuggests the norm, it has not been the rule. One fourth of the interactions water-related during lasthalfcentury of the werehostile.Although vastmajority thesehostilities involved no more than verbal antagonism, rival countries went beyond name-callingon 37 recordedoccasionsand firedshots, blew up a dam, or undertooksome otherformof militaryaction. Lost amidstthis perennialdebateover whether therewill be waterwars has beena seriouseffortto how and why tensionsdevelop, understand precisely cause-and-effect the simplistic equationthat beyond whetheror not lead to wars. First, water shortages nations y between warfare causes waterscarcity outright r causesenoughviolence in the yearsahead,it already socialandpolit- v, to withinnations threaten andconflict z and S And as recenteventsin the Balkans ical stability. o civil Africa sub-Saharan demonstrated, today's conflicts

and havea nastyhabitof spilling overborders becomwars.Second,waterdisinternational ingtomorrow's not putesbetweencountries, thoughtypically leading to wardirectly, fueled have decades regional of tensions, thwarted economicdevelopment, riskedprovokand ing largerconflictsbeforeeventuallygiving way to withwaterwarsbegsmore The cooperation. obsession Whataretheearly important questions: signsandlikely locations water-related of andwhatcangovdisputes, ernments international and agentsdo to preventthe of violenceand politicalinstability? eruption

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in dles.Andthereis intensifying friction the lowerportions of the IndusRiver, wherePakistan's and Punjab Sindprovinces havebeenfeudingoverwaterfor sevturned eralyears.ThispastApril,protestsin Karachi violent as demonstrators "Giveus water" shouting clashedwith police. These incidentsshould not be dismissedas isolated and unrelated.Water stress is spreadingas increase[seemap on page62]. By2015, populations 3 billion people--40 percentof the projectnearly ed world population-are expectedto live in counI ,

. '6;.'?. - ;1.,..I- .1'? _. I .;, ?-'-? '?- -??'.; ? ??.-M-:--'r I ? :"--..:;.:? ?_ '? . .:- I-M."....?. .:.,_ ?.1-:;',-!.---, ;N,`ap.1 ---",.',.', - gf '.?-....?? :7.,.-,..wl,_.?:7,".:'. .,t:?i?-:??r,.,.",.?,,?.,??,,?. ..-- A'%?1 ?'- -"?? ,?.,. ...:.. :.1 --- _;??:?- :...". . ' .....?,.-*?'?.--'??:'?"."'? ;....-.,1;-...:.. .-?..?.....?...?,''....' q!-?? ..*.?..;?"?.:, ?-'.'?", ,INQ;: Z?.,_ j, ?_ ?.V '.'?.;::.' -_ ..._?__',. ?!"-: -"??.?": -.-. -.1 r?.Y? :? ?::?'-?,?; ...' " .._''?. .'..... ," ;'..'.,:.i. : "?"I?1?,.. ...'"".., ._..'..'.i... ...'": _._.'i%?:-:M__ _:'?;`!`'?' .,:-.,i",?-.",???-.,,?---w'..--,*.?"-...:.. ,-." ??'..:-r- ?;`-- '.... --''". .... .??m ?,.:.,., ...'?' ":," "! ?'_' ?::?..'?' ..,.?:'.I...

INTERNAL

STRESS

in On July6, 2000, thousandsof farmers the Yellow Riverbasinof eastern Chinaclashedwith policeover a government runofffrom a local plan to recapture reservoir cities, industries,and other users.The for farmershad long relied on that runoff to irrigate theircrops,and a bad droughthad madethe supply U) more criticalthan ever.The incidenttook place in Shandong,the last provincethroughwhich the Yellow Riverrunsbeforereaching sea. The location the is noteworthy because geography water-related the of tensionsis beginning show a pattern: to Disputesare in withincountries the downstream erupting regions of overtapped riverbasins.China's YellowRiverhas beenrunning in its lowerreaches andoff since on dry in 1972, andthe dryspellshavelengthened markedly recentyears, includinga record226 days in 1997. waterdisputes seemto be brewing between c Likewise, Thailand's northern and southern regions as mainriversupply, ChaoPhraya, the dwinBangkok's
z 0

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tries that find it difficultor impossibleto mobilize enough water to satisfy the food, industrial,and domestic needs of their citizens. This scarcitywill translate into heightened competition for water states betweencitiesandfarms,betweenneighboring and provinces,and at times betweennations. The largest and most combustible imbalance between population and available water supplies will be in Asia, where crop production depends heavily on irrigation.Asia today has roughly 60 percentof the world'speople but only 36 percentof the world's renewable fresh water. China, India, Iran,and Pakistanareamongthe countrieswherea significantshare of the irrigatedland is now jeopscarceriverwater, ardizedby groundwater depletion, a fertility-sapping of salts in the soil, or buildup some combination of these factors. Groundwater depletion alone places 10 to 20 percent of grain productionin both China and Indiaat risk. Water tables are fallingsteadilyin the North ChinaPlain,
SEPTEMBER

OCTOBER

2001

61

Dehydrating Conflict

which yields more than half of China'swheat and nearly one third of its corn, as well as in northwest India'sPunjab,another major breadbasket. waterand see As farmerslose accessto irrigation their livelihoods deteriorate, they may not only resort to violent protest but migrateacross borders and to restiveand alreadyovercrowdedcities. Such has been the case in Pakistan,where falling agriculturaloutputhas prompteda massiveruralmigration to largeurbancenters,leadingto renewedoutbreaks of ethnic violence. will Internal waterstresses also shiftinternational alliancesand add to the burdenof humanipolitical tarian crises. Countriescommonly adapt to water stressby importingmore of theirfood, providedthey have the foreign exchange to do so. It takes about 1,000 cubicmetersof waterto grow one ton of grain. By importingwheat and otherstaples,water-stressed countries allocatemoreof theirscarcefreshwater can which generatefar moreecoto cities and industries, does. Israel,for nomic valueper literthan agriculture has done very nicely with this approach. example, Currentlywater-stressedcountries in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East accountfor 26 percentof global grainimports.As an additionalbillionpeople are countriesover the next 15 added to water-stressed years and as more countriesjoin the ranks of food importers, demand for international grain will

increase.A good portion of that increasemay come from China,India,and Pakistan-all currently grain but self-sufficient, unlikelyto remainso for reasons of water and land scarcity.Their governmentswill inevitablyform strongerallianceswith the nations from which they choose to import food. For those nationswithoutsufficient foreignexchangeto turnto Africa,higher notablythose in sub-Saharan imports, worldgrainpriceswill likelymeangreater hungerand more calls for humanitarian aid. tensionshas Finally,a new cause of water-related surfacedin just the last few years-the transferof water system ownership and/or managementfrom public authoritiesto privatemultinationalcorporais tions. Drivingprivatization a confluenceof forces: the mounting costs and political liabilities of providing urban water services, increasedpressureon MonetaryFund governmentsfrom the International (IMF)and the WorldBankto reducewater subsidies and public-sectordebt, and the growing power of private corporationsseeking to profit from the sale of water and relatedservices.Especiallywhere privatization takes place in the presence of poverty and inequality,which is to say in most of the developing world, it can lead to civil protestand violence. Recent events in Cochabamba, Bolivia's third theserisks.Followingthe prilargestcity,underscore vatizationof Cochabamba's watersystem,whichhad

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been plagued by corruption and mismanagement, water rates skyrocketed-resulting in water bills for some residentsequal to a quarter or more of their income. Months of civil unrestculminatedin April 2000, when the La Paz government sent soldiers into Cochabamba, where some 30,000 protesters had amassed in the centralplaza. Several days of violence ensued, leaving one person dead and more than a hundred injured. The conflict abated only when the water system returned to public control. Cochabamba is an extreme but not

isolatedcase. Activistsin Colombiaand

South Africa likewise have opposed the privatization of waterand othermunicipal services.Meanwhile, IMFloan agree-

Euphrates rivers and other regions of water dispute is not that worsening scarcity will lead inevitably to water wars. It is rather that unilateral actions to construct a dam or riverdiversion in the absence of a treaty or institutionalmechanismthat safeguards the interestsof other countriesin the basin is highly destabilizing to a region, often spurringdecades of hostility beforecooperation is pursued. In other words, the red flag for water-related tension between countries is not water stress per se (as is the case within countries),

'

but rather a unilateral attempt to

develop an international river,usually by a regional power. In theJordan River basin, for example, violence broke out in the mid-1960s over an "all-Arab" plan to divert the river's headwaters (itself a preemptive move to thwart Israel's intention to siphon water from the Sea of Galilee).Israeland Syria sporadically exchanged fire between March 1965 and July 1966. Water-related tensions in the basin persisted for decades and only recently have begun to dissipate. A similar sequence of events transpired in the Nile basin, which is shared by 10 countries-of which Egypt is last in line. In the late 1950s, hostilities broke out between Egypt and Sudan over Egypt's planned construction of the Aswan High Dam. The signing of a treaty between the two countries in 1959 defused tensions before the dam was built. But no water-sharing agreement exists between Egypt and Ethiopia, where some 85 percent of the Nile's flow originates, and a war of words has raged these two between nations for decades. Along with civil war and such verbal threats have likely
SEPTEMBER I OCTOBER

U
me (cubic

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ercapita)

mentswith at least half a dozen countries last year called for some degree of water system privatization. The number of urban dwellers worldwide is projected to nearly double-to 5 billion-by 2025. Unless governments and lenders strengthen municipal water agencies and steer private-sector involvement toward equity as well as efficiency and toward social justice as well as shareholder profit, more violence like that in Cochabamba may be forthcoming. DAM UNILATERALISTS Some 261 of the world's rivers are shared by two or more countries. These international watersheds account for about 60 percent of the world's freshwater supply and are home to approximately 40 percent of the world's people. Despite the absence to date of full-scalewater wars, unresolved tensions over water have per.. sistently irritated relations, fueled other hostilities, and 2 occasionally led to military action that risked provokinga larger conflict. Yet, the overarching Slessonto draw from the basins of the Jordan, the ::poverty, Nile, and the Tigris and

Annua ater

Methodsyeais Note arid ofesti at s

(Washington: Resources countries. Source: Resources'2000-2001 World 2000) World Institute,

ximate between app comlparison

2001

63

Dehydrating Conflict

The water unprecedented ofcurrent stress degree more situations within both is creating zero-sum and between countries.

planned or under constructionthat may hurt other countries and where there is no mechanism for resolving resulting disputes? The accompanying map [see page 65] shows the location of 17 such basins, along with the four in which serious unresolved water disputes already exist or are being negotiated. These basins at risk encompass 51 nations on five continents in just about every climatic zone. Eight of the basins are in Africa, primarily in the south, while six are in Asia, mostly in the southeast. Few are on the radar screens of water-and-securityanalysts. Consider,for example, the Salween River,which rises in southern China, then flows into Myanmar (Burma) and Thailand. Each of these nations plans to construct dams and development projects along the Salween,and no two sets of plans are compatible. China, has moreover, not lately beenwarm in Bangladesh, orderto channelmore riverwater to to notions of water sharing.It was one of just three the port of Calcutta.This diversionleft Bangladesh countriesthat voted againsta 1997 U.N. convention less with significantly water for irrigationduringthe that established basicguidelines principles the and for rivers.Add in other destabilizing dry season.A 20-yearperiodof intermittent hostility use of international and instability ensued,includingincreased migration factorsin the Salweenbasin-including the statusof of desperateBangladeshis acrossthe borderto India. Tibet,indigenousresistancemovements,opium proThese conflicts share a common trajectory: uni- duction, and a burgeoning urban population in lateralconstructionof a big dam or other develop- Bangkok-and the familiar conflict trajectory mentproject,leadingto a protracted periodof region- emerges.Without a treaty in place, or even regular and al insecurity hostility, typicallyfollowedby a long dialogue between the nations about their respective A and arduousprocessof disputeresolution. two-year plans,thereis littleinstitutional capacityto bufferthe of conflict and cooperation within interna- inevitableshock as constructionbegins. study at tionalriverbasinsby researchers OregonStateUniConsider,too, the Okavango, the fourth largest versityfound that the likelihoodof conflictincreases riverin southernAfrica.Itswatershedspansportions significantlywhenever two factors come into play. of Angola, Botswana, Namibia, and Zimbabwe, The firstis that some largeor rapidchangeoccursin and its vast delta in northern Botswana offers a the basin'sphysicalsetting(typically construction world-renownedwildlife habitat-the "jewelof the the In Namibia revived of a dam, riverdiversion,or irrigationscheme)or in Kalahari." 1996, drought-prone the its politicalsetting,especially breakupof a nation colonial plans to divertOkavangowater to its capithat results in new international rivers. Secondly, tal city of Windhoek. Angola and especially existing institutionsare unableto absorb and effec- Botswanaobjectto the schemebecauseof its potentively manage that change-i.e., when there is no tial harm to the people and ecosystemsthat depend treaty spelling out each nation's rights and respon- on the Okavango's flow for their existence. The sibilities with regard to the shared river nor any main institutionthat can help managethe disputeis implicit agreements or cooperative arrangements. the fledgling Okavango Commission, formed in Even the existence of technicalworking groups can 1994 to coordinate plans in the basin. The comto issues, mission has recentlyreceivedrenewedsupportfrom providesomecapability managecontentious as they have in the Middle East. the SouthernAfrica Development Community,the Looking ahead, then, which river basins are U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, and other agencies, ripe for the onset of tensions or conflict over the but the water dispute continues to simmer. Several river basins are at risk of future disnext 10 years? Where are dams or diversions
POLICY

inhibitedEthiopia'swater development,leavingthe Horn of Africa more vulnerable to drought and famine. Meanwhile Egypt, the regional power, has continued to pursue large-scaleriver basin schemes unilaterally.As in the case of the Jordan, only in recent years have the Nile nations begun to work cooperativelytoward a solution. Similarscenarioshave unfolded in a numberof other river basins. India unilaterallyconstructeda barrage during the 1960s and early 1970s on the Ganges River at Farakka, near the border with

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FOREIGN

putesmore becauseof rapidchangesin theirpolitical settings than any specific dam or development scheme. The breakup of the Soviet Union resulted in several new international river basins almost institutionalcapacovernight,and, not surprisingly, for managing water disputes in them is weak. ity The watershed of Central Asia's Aral Sea, for instance,spannedfive Sovietrepublicsthat are now independentcountries. Tensions among the young nations quickly arose both over how to share the Amu Darya and SyrDarya, the two riversthat feed the Aral Sea, as well as how to ameliorate the human and environmentaltragedy caused by the sea's dramatic shrinking-a result of 40 years of riverdiversionsmastermindedby Moscow to grow cotton in the CentralAsian deserts.With assistance from international agencies, these young governments have taken tentative steps toward trying to resolve their water dilemmas. Other recentlyinternationalized basins are only to establishchannelsof cooperation.The beginning Kura-Araks riversystem,for example,runs through the politicallyvolatile Caucasus,includingthe newly independent countries of Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan.The riversystem is the source of drinking water for large portions of these nations, but millions of tons of untreatedsewage and industrial

waste regularlypush the level of water pollution to 10 to 100 times internationalstandards.On top of the pollution problems, some forecasts project severewater shortageswithin 10 years.These water strains exacerbate, and are exacerbated by, relations over other contentious issues in the region, notably those of Nagorno-Karabakhand the proposed pipelineto transportCaspiancrudeoil across the region to Turkey. REDUCING WATER PRESSURE

Historysupportsthe hopefulnotion that freshwater may foster cooperation more often than conflict in the yearsahead.Watersharinghas regularly brought even hostile neighboring states together. But the unprecedented degreeof currentwater stressis creating more zero-sum situations-in which one party's gain is perceived as another's loss-both within and betweencountries.The challengeto governmentsand international bodiesis to recognizethe new geographyand causes of water-related conflict and to embracethree guiding principlesas they act to promote water security. of First,effortsto increasethe productivity water use-output per unit of water-are key to defusing tensions as water stress worsens. Measuressuch as

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Dehydrating Conflict

drip irrigation (a highly efficient technique that delivers water directlyto the roots of crops), shifts in cropping patterns, recycling and reusing wastehouseholdappliances enable water,and water-thrifty cities and farming regions to do more with less water. Since agricultureaccounts for two thirds of water use worldwide, and 80 to 90 percentin many developingcountries,increasingthe productivityof critical.Several waterwater is particularly irrigation short urban areas, including greater Los Angeles and Beijing,are investingin conservationimprovements on nearby farms in exchange for the water those investments save. The farmers stay in production,the city obtainsadditionalwater suppliesat a reasonable cost, and cooperation replaces competition. Moreover,where water conservation and productivityimprovementseliminatethe need for a new dam or river diversion, or allow a big project to be scaled down in size, they also addressa major sourceof tension and conflict.As the costs of desalination decrease, the desalting of contaminated aquifersand of seawater may generate new drinking water supplies and thereby ease tensions in water-scarceregions as well. Second, stronger policies are needed in most countriesto regulategroundwateruse, to price irrigation and urban water in ways that encourage thriftiness insteadof waste, and to protectriversand lakes from degradation. Greater assistance to governments from international agencies in carrying out these policy and management reforms could help lessen the likelihood of future water conflicts. Letting globalization loose in the form of poorly regulated privatization of water services or unconstrained private funding of dam constructionwill likely cause more problems than it solves. In this regard, the 2000 report of the independentWorld Commission on Dams, which establishes recommendations for more socially responsibleplanning and assessment of dams, is an important step forward. Among other things, the report calls for an processthat includesall those open decision-making affected by a proposed dam; a thorough examination of the full range of alternativesto determineif a dam is reallythe best choice;negotiationswith and adequatecompensationfor those adverselyaffected by dam construction; and, where international riversare concerned,regional cooperation and col66
FOREIGN POLICY

laboration.While some governmentshave publicly endorsedthe commission's others recommendations, for instance-have disavowed them. -India, Third, governmentsand internationalorganizationsmustact earlyand constructively. Someof the most tense water disputes of the 20th century simmered for decades before the rival parties resolved theirdifferences. Afterthreedecadesof tensionin the basin, Israel and Jordan included a waterJordan sharingprovision in the peace treaty they signed in 1994. Tensionsamong the Nile basin countries are finally easing, thanks in part to unofficialdialogues among scientistsand technicalspecialiststhat have been held since the early 1990s and more recentlyto a ministerial-level "Nile BasinInitiative"facilitated the United Nations and the World Bank. India by and Bangladeshended a 20-year dispute in 1996 with the signing of a treaty that sets out specific termsfor sharingthe dry-seasonflow of the Ganges. The prevailing ad hoc pattern-implementing agreements, sometimes decades after a crisis emerges-is not only risky and inefficient, but in many cases preventable.The key is establishing a processof cooperationearlyin the trajectorybefore serious hostilities erupt that make it difficult for nations to sit around a negotiating table together. The Indus basin offers a good example. After their independence in 1947, India and Pakistan nearly

of loose Letting globalization intheform poorly ofwater or regulated privatization services unconwill of construction strained private fundingdam cause problems itsolves. than likely more
went to war overthe watersof the Indus,whichwere awkwardly divided by the new political borders. World Bank PresidentEugene Black used his good offices to mediatethe dispute,a long but ultimately successfuleffort that culminatedin the 1960 Indus WatersTreaty. Strong institutions make a difference.Treaties that provide for effective monitoring and enforcement are often remarkablyresilient, holding even when the signatoriesare engaged in hostilities over non-waterissues. The IndusWatersTreatysurvived two wars between the signatoriesand allowed each

to pursue its agriculturaland economic plans without riskingthe ire of the other.Long-termprograms of joint fact-finding, technical cooperation, and other initiatives that establish a climate of cooperation among countriescan pave the way for resolving disputes when they do arise. The U.S. State Department, other donor countries, and a number of U.N. agencieshave establisheda Global Alliance for WaterSecurityaimed at coordinatingassistance in priority regions, which may help countries get ahead of the crisis curve. Most of humanity's long historywith watermanhas focused on developingways to capture agement

and deliverwater in ever greaterquantitiesto people, industries, and farms. We have more or less mastered the technologies that enable us to bend natureto our will. This success,however,has not created a water-secureworld. Together,more effective technologies,policies, and internationalinstitutions can help preventand resolvewater disputes.But the stresses on rivers and water supplies are now so great and so widespread that we cannot wait for these measuresto graduallyevolve. We must implement them before long periods of verbal threats, hostilities, environmentaldegradation,and human sufferingengulf more regions of the globe. I[H

Want to Know More? of see For an overviewof globalwaterstressand the sustainability irrigated agriculture, SandraPostel's Pillar of Sand: Can the IrrigationMiracle Last? (New York:W.W.Norton, 1999), as well as many Institute.Also see Postel's"GrowingMore Food WaterManagement publicationsof the International with Less Water"(Scientific 2001). For coverageof a wide rangeof water topics American,February Resources(Washand data, see PeterGleick'sThe World'sWater:TheBiennialReporton Freshwater ington: Island Press, 1998 and 2000) and the Web sites of the PacificInstitutefor Studiesin Development, Environment,and Securityand the WorldResourcesInstitute'senvironmentalinformation portal. An excellent new source on technologies and measuresto conserve water is Amy Vickers's Handbook of Water Use and Conservation (Amherst:WaterPlowPress, 2001). There is good recent literatureon both the dangersand promises of sharedriversystems. Arun Elhancefocuseson developingcountriesin Hydropoliticsin the ThirdWorld:Conflictand Cooperation in International River Basins (Washington:U.S. Institute of Peace Press, 1999). The Middle East is covered extensively in Asit Biswas's, ed., International Waters of the Middle East: From Euphrates-Tigristo Nile (Oxford: Oxford UniversityPress, 1994) and Hussein Amery and Aaron Wolf's, eds., Water in the Middle East: A Geography of Peace (Austin:Universityof Texas Press, 2000). For a diplomat'sperspectiveof the processfrom armedconflictto unofficialdialogueto peace KluwerAcademicPubnegotiations,see MuntherHaddadin'sDiplomacy on theJordan (Dordrecht: An editedvolume of classicpaperson water disputesat variousscalesis Wolf's, lishers,forthcoming). ed., Conflict Prevention and Resolution in WaterSystems (Cheltenham:EdwardElgar,2001). Waters: Basinsat Risk" (Water Wolf, ShiraYoffe,and Mark Giordano's"International Identifying Policy, forthcoming)gives detailson the Oregon StateUniversity(OSu)study on indicatorsof water conflict and basins at risk. Relatedarticlesand primaryinformationrelatedto conflict and cooperation over internationalwaters can be found at osu's Transboundary FreshwaterDispute Database
project Web site.

Formoreinformation dams,see the reportof the WorldCommission Dams,Dams and Develon on A New Frameworkfor Decision-Making(London:Earthscan, 2000) and the Web site of the opment: International RiversNetwork. An interestinginterviewwith Oscar Olivera,who led the protestover water system,appearedin Multinational Monitor (June2000). privatizationof Cochabamba's DFor links to relevantWeb sites, as well as a comprehensiveindex of related FOREIGN POLICY articles, access www.foreignpolicy.com.
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