Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Ao
Precio
US$/TM
1850.000
558.550
1550.000
550.620
-300.000
-7.930
-19.355
2987.000
485.810
1437.000
-64.810
48.108
2895.000
487.520
-92.000
1.710
-3.178
3100.000
488.540
205.000
1.020
6.613
3099.000
468.010
-1.000
-20.530
-0.032
2949.000
506.000
-150.000
37.990
-5.086
2830.000
491.620
-119.000
-14.380
-4.205
2514.000
406.420
-316.000
-85.200
-12.570
2711.000
559.200
197.000
152.780
7.267
4800.000
630.960
2089.000
71.760
43.521
5020.000
773.960
220.000
143.000
4.382
5500.000
624.130
480.000
-149.830
8.727
5380.000
528.420
-120.000
-95.710
-2.230
6144.000
502.240
764.000
-26.180
12.435
6338.200
454.220
194.200
-48.020
3.064
6433.500
476.000
95.300
21.780
1.481
6600.000
452.610
166.500
-23.390
2.523
6850.000
515.660
250.000
63.050
3.650
7000.000
818.070
150.000
302.410
2.143
7250.000
956.320
250.000
138.250
3.448
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Variacin
Variacin del
de la
precio DP US$/tn
demanda D
DD
(%)
D
Demanda
(TMF)*10^
3
DP
DD
= Nc + b
P
D
(*)
DD
DD
DP
DD
*
+ b
= c
P
D
D
D
Ao
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
DP
(%
P
DD
(%)
D
DP
P
DD
D
DD
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-1.44
-19.35
27.87
374.61
-13.34
48.11
-641.80
2314.42
0.35
-3.18
-1.11
10.10
0.21
6.61
1.38
43.73
-4.39
-0.03
0.14
0.00
7.51
-5.09
-38.19
25.87
-2.93
-4.20
12.30
17.68
-20.96
-12.57
263.50
158.00
27.32
7.27
198.53
52.80
11.37
43.52
494.97
1894.06
18.48
4.38
80.97
19.21
-24.01
8.73
-209.51
76.17
-18.11
-2.23
40.40
4.98
-5.21
12.43
-64.82
154.63
-10.57
3.06
-32.39
9.39
4.58
1.48
6.78
2.19
-5.17
2.52
-13.04
6.36
12.23
3.65
44.62
13.32
36.97
2.14
79.21
4.59
2005
14.46
3.45
49.85
11.89
SUMA
27.3364
100.7058
299.6845
5194.0034
De ( * ) se
tiene
27.3364402
21 * c + b *
100.7057915
299.68454
100.705791 * c + b *
5194.003387
Entonces (*):
b
c
=
=
0.0358
1.130
1.13
0.04
Entonces (a):
P / P = ||
(D/D)||
Asumimos la serie estadstica de precios para calcular la demanda futura del Pb,
para lo cual consideramos la siguiente formulacin:
( ** )
(D / D)(t) = d( t) + e (t)2
AO
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
SUMA
DD
(%)
D
0
-19.35
48.11
-3.18
6.61
-0.03
-5.09
-4.20
-12.57
7.27
43.52
4.38
8.73
-2.23
12.43
3.06
1.48
2.52
3.65
2.14
3.45
100.7058
-10
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0.0000
DD
* t
D
2
100
81
64
49
36
25
16
9
4
1
0
1
4
9
16
25
36
49
64
81
100
770.0000
0.00
174.19
-384.87
22.25
-39.68
0.16
20.35
12.61
25.14
-7.27
0.00
4.38
17.45
-6.69
49.74
15.32
8.89
17.66
29.20
19.29
34.48
12.6057
De ( ** ) se tiene:
100.705791 =
21 * d + e *
0.0000
770 =
0.0000 * d + e *
770.0000
D / D =
e
d
=
=
1.0000
4.796
4.80
1.00
*t
DD/D
t
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Futura
15.7955
16.7955
17.7955
18.7955
19.7955
20.7955
21.7955
22.7955
23.7955
24.7955
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
P ACTUAL
DP/P
(%)
71.76
-10.70
-10.74
10.77
11.18
-11.61
11.37
1.70
1.73
1.77
1.80
1.84
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
13145.57
16010.71
19660.43
24338.73
30373.65
631.49
619.42
607.37
619.41
631.90
2263.0708
2865.1436
3649.7235
4678.3011
6034.9142
11.62
-12.06
-12.05
12.04
12.50
1.87
1.91
1.95
1.98
2.02
Variacin
Ao
OFERTA
(TMF)
Precio
US$/tn
OFERTA
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
5,395
5,496
5,430
5,592
5,532
5,392
5,172
4,929
5,074
5,183
5,597
5,758
6,044
6,082
6,144
6,338
6,434
6,641
6,825
7,260
7,609
558.55
550.62
485.81
487.52
488.54
468.01
506.00
491.62
406.42
559.20
630.96
773.96
624.13
528.42
502.24
454.22
476.00
452.61
515.66
818.07
956.32
100
-65
161
-59
-141
-220
-243
145
109
414
161
286
37
62
194
95
208
184
435
349
DD
DP US$/tn
-7.93
-64.81
1.71
1.02
-20.53
37.99
-14.38
-85.20
152.78
71.76
143.00
-149.83
-95.71
-26.18
-48.02
21.78
-23.39
63.05
302.41
138.25
DO/O ( % )
1.83
-1.20
2.88
-1.07
-2.61
-4.26
-4.93
2.86
2.11
7.40
2.80
4.73
0.61
1.02
3.06
1.48
3.12
2.70
5.99
5
DP
DO
= Nc + b
P
O
(*)
DO
DP DO
DO
P * O = c O + b O
DO
DP DO
DO
P * O = c O + b O
Ao
DP
(%
P
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
0.00
-1.44
-13.34
0.35
0.21
-4.39
7.51
-2.93
-20.96
27.32
11.37
18.48
-24.01
-18.11
-5.21
-10.57
4.58
-5.17
12.23
36.97
14.46
SUMA
27.3364
DO
O
(% )
0.00
1.83
-1.20
2.88
-1.07
-2.61
-4.26
-4.93
2.86
2.11
7.40
2.80
4.73
0.61
1.02
3.06
1.48
3.12
51.00
60.00
0.12
DP DO
*
P
O
0.00
-2.63
16.03
1.01
-0.22
11.44
-31.96
14.42
-60.03
57.56
84.12
51.72
-113.55
-11.14
-5.29
-32.39
6.78
-16.15
623.58
2217.98
1.79
130.9635 2813.0650
DO
0.00
3.34
1.44
8.32
1.15
6.80
18.12
24.29
8.20
4.44
54.71
7.84
22.37
0.38
1.03
9.39
2.19
9.76
2601.00
3600.00
0.02
6384.8002
De ( * ) se
tiene
27.3364402 =
21 * c + b *
130.9634517
2813.06498 =
130.963452 * c + b *
6384.800152
Entonces:
P / P = ||
b
c
=
=
0.4746
-1.658
-1.66
0.47
(O/O)||
Asumimos la serie estadstica de precios para calcular la Oferta futura del Pb, para lo cual
consideramos la siguiente formulacin:
O/O = d + (e) (t)
(O /O) = dN + e t
( ** )
(O / D)(t) = d( t) + e (t)2
AO
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
SUMA
(% )
0
1.82654218
-1.2019461
2.884479536
-1.0727907
-2.60847309
-4.25717877
-4.92837723
2.863674885
2.106847254
7.39668757
2.799437334
4.730154528
0.614969745
1.015625
3.063961377
1.481308774
3.124529438
51
60
0.124
130.9635
-10
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0.0000
DO
O
100
81
64
49
36
25
16
9
4
1
0
1
4
9
16
25
36
49
64
81
100
770.0000
* t
0
-16.4388796
9.615568765
-20.1913568
6.436744211
13.04236543
17.02871507
14.78513168
-5.72734977
-2.10684725
0
2.799437334
9.460309057
1.844909234
4.0625
15.31980689
8.887852646
21.87170607
408
540
1.24
1029.9306
De ( ** ) se tiene:
130.963452 =
21 * d + e *
0.0000
770 =
0.0000 * d + e *
770.0000
e
d
=
=
1.0000
6.236
D / D =
6.24
1.00
*t
DO/O
t
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Futura
15.7955
16.7955
17.7955
18.7955
19.7955
20.7955
21.7955
22.7955
23.7955
24.7955
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
OFERTA
ACTUAL
(MILES TM)
PRECIO
ACTUAL
( US$/ TM )
5597.10
6481.19
7569.74
8916.81
10592.78
12689.67
630.96
594.12
556.61
594.40
637.56
588.23
414.000
884.0907
1088.5493
1347.0741
1675.9610
2096.8943
DP/P
71.76
-36.84
-37.51
37.78
43.17
-49.33
(%)
11.37
1.70
1.73
1.77
1.80
1.84
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
15328.55
18669.49
22925.29
28380.49
35417.57
636.54
581.25
528.00
578.88
637.40
48.30
-55.29
-53.25
50.87
58.52
2638.8820
3340.9365
4255.8057
5455.1914
7037.0871
1.87
1.91
1.95
1.98
2.02
DEMANDA
OFERTA
AO
DEMANDA
ACTUAL (MILES
TM)
PRECIO
ACTUAL
( US$/ TM )
OFERTA
ACTUAL
(MILES TM)
PRECIO ACTUAL
( US$/ TM )
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
4800.00
5558.18
6491.71
7646.94
9084.23
10882.50
13145.57
16010.71
19660.43
24338.73
30373.65
630.96
620.26
609.52
620.30
631.48
619.87
631.49
619.42
607.37
619.41
631.90
5597.10
6481.19
7569.74
8916.81
10592.78
12689.67
15328.55
18669.49
22925.29
28380.49
35417.57
630.96
594.12
556.61
594.40
637.56
588.23
636.54
581.25
528.00
578.88
637.40
SUMA
147992.65
172568.68
622.2412494
595.8845192
609.063
AOS Vs TONELAJE
3028608.0
3447535.1
3956859.6
4743361.1
5736483.1
6745704.6
8301237.5
9917413.0
11941165.0
15075570.6
19193194.1
92087131.6
DEMANDA x
PRECIO
DD
(%)
D
DP
P
(% )
-1.440
-13.341
0.351
0.209
-4.387
7.508
-2.925
-20.964
27.321
11.373
18.476
-24.006
-18.112
-5.213
-10.572
4.576
-5.168
12.227
36.966
14.456
on de la Demanda
da historica.
Resultado
DD
* t
D
del mineral
RECIO DEL Pb
D/ D
(%)
43.521
15.796
16.796
17.796
18.796
19.796
DP/P
Corregido
(%)
11.373
-1.695
-1.731
1.767
1.803
-1.839
20.796
21.796
22.796
23.796
24.796
1.874
-1.910
-1.946
1.982
2.017
CONOCIDO
DP
P
(% )
-1.44
-13.34
0.35
0.21
-4.39
7.51
-2.93
-20.96
27.32
11.37
18.48
-24.01
-18.11
-5.21
-10.57
4.58
-5.17
12.23
36.97
14
on de la Oferta
Resultado
el mineral
RECIO DEL Pb
O/O
(%)
7.397
15.796
16.796
17.796
18.796
19.796
DP/P
Corregido
(%)
11.37
-5.84
-6.31
6.79
7.26
-7.74
20.796
21.796
22.796
23.796
24.796
8.21
-8.69
-9.16
9.64
10.11
RTA Y LA DEMANDA
OFERTA x
PRECIO
3531546.22
3850614.92
4213424.61
5300112.68
6753550.12
7464502.74
9757194.38
10851588.9
12104582.6
16428766.2
22575121.4
102831004.8
PRECIO Pb
Promedio ($)
630.96
606.19
581.04
606.35
634.75
602.84
634.21
598.87
564.64
597.59
634.86