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Finance Minister, Mr. Pranab Mukherjees speech on the Union Budget was a continuation of his last years policy of improving the fiscal health without disturbing the growth momentum of the economy. Accordingly he expects the GDP to clock a growth of 9% while the fiscal deficit is expected to be reigned in at 4.6%. Despite strong headwinds on the fiscal front, the FM has not implemented the widely anticipated hike in basic excise duty to raise resources. While the thrust of the budget has been to continue with infrastructure and agriculture lead growth, a slew of measures like lowering market borrowings, continued divestments, allowing foreign nationals to invest directly in domestic mutual funds, status quo on the excise duty structure, efforts to deepen the corporate bond market through augmenting FII investments limits and reduction in the corporation tax surcharge should give Corporate India a much needed fillip. However the big concern in light of the rising crude prices and spiraling food inflation is the allocation to subsidies which we believe are very conservative and should be much higher than those estimated.
Budget Summary
(Rs. in Crore) Revenue Receipts Net Tax Revenue Non tax Revenue Capital Receipts Recoveries of receipts Other Reciepts (Disinvestments) Debt Reciepts Draw Down Balance of Cash Total Receipts Non Plan Expenditure Non Plan Revenue Interest Payments Non Plan Capital Plan Expenditure Plan Revenue Plan Capital Total Expenditure GDP Nominal Gross Fiscal Deficit Fiscal deficit as a % of GDP Revenue Deficit Revenue deficit as a % of GDP Primary Deficit Primary deficit as a % of GDP 2008-09 2009-10 540,259 572,810 443,319 456,535 96,940 116,275 291,101 453,063 6,139 8,613 566 24,581 284,396 419,869 52,596 (1,386) 883,956 1,024,487 608,721 559,024 192,204 49,697 275,235 234,774 40,461 883,956 721,096 657,925 213,093 63,171 303,391 253,884 49,507 1,024,487 2010-11BE 2010-11RE 2011-12BE % Change 682,212 783,833 789,893 15.8% 534,094 563,685 664,458 24.4% 148,118 220,148 125,435 -15.3% 426,537 447,743 447,836 5.0% 5,129 9,001 15,020 192.8% 40,000 22,744 40,000 0.0% 381,408 415,998 392,816 3.0% (15,000) 20,000 1,108,749 1,216,576 1,257,729 13.4% 735,657 643,599 248,664 92,058 373,092 315,125 57,967 1,108,749 821,552 726,749 240,757 94,803 395,024 326,928 68,096 1,216,576 816,182 733,558 267,986 82,624 441,547 363,604 77,943 1,257,729 10.9% 14.0% 7.8% -10.2% 18.3% 15.4% 34.5% 13.4% 29.5% 8.2% -16.4% 11.1% -14.2% 9.1% -15.8%
5,574,449 6,164,178 336,992 418,482 6.0% 6.8% 253,539 338,999 4.5% 5.5% 144,788 205,389 2.6% 3.3%
6,934,700 7,877,947 8,980,860 381,408 400,998 412,817 5.5% 5.1% 4.6% 276,512 269,844 307,269 4.0% 3.4% 3.4% 132,744 160,241 144,831 1.9% 2.0% 1.6%
* Change is calculated from budgeted estimates of 2010-11 Mon 28th Feb, 2011 Union Budget 2011-12
Trimming of estimates on the fiscal deficit front should send a strong positive signal to the international investors resulting in increased flows.
Mon 28th Feb, 2011
Subsidies
2008-09 2009-10 2010-11BE 2010-11RE 2011-12BE Food Fertilizers Petroleum Interest and Others Subsidies as a %of GDP (RHS)
Introduction of new resource mobilization avenues; though still capital market based
The Indian Mutual Fund Industry can now directly raise equity funds from foreign nationals who comply with the KYC norms. In our opinion this is a big positive as a new class of investors would provide valuable resources for mobilization of funds. In addition to this the FII limit on investments in domestic corporate bonds with residual maturity of over 5 years has been enhanced to US$ 40 bn from the current US$ 25 bn. Further FIIs can also invest in 3 year lock-in bonds floated by infra SPV firms with an added flavor to trade in the same (FII to FII). Besides providing valuable resources for growth, this will also get the debt market going and help deepen the same. Divestment proceeds have been pegged at Rs 40,000 crore and should not disrupt the market.
Focus on infrastructure, rural development and agriculture continuous to be at the core of UPAs agenda for growth
The allocation to the infrastructure sector has been increased by 23.3% to Rs 2,14,000 crore (accounting for 48.5% (+250 bps) of the plan expenditure) over last year. Rural Development and agriculture has always been at the centre of the UPA governments agenda. In accordance with this, it has provided Rs 74,100 crore (+12%) for Rural developments, besides providing Rs 40,000 crore to NREGA, Rs 58,000 crore for the rural infrastructure programmes of Bharat Nirman and Rs 10,000 crore to the Indira Awas Yojna. For agricultural development, the government plans to strengthen the infrastructure to remove production and distribution bottlenecks. The total allocation under the ongoing RKVY is being increased from Rs 6,755 crore in 2010-11 to Rs 7,860 crore in 2011-12. All the above will not only spur growth but also provide increased employment at the grass root level thereby fuelling consumptions.
Against wide market anticipation of an increase in the basic excise duty, the FM chose to maintain the basic excise duty rate at 10%. This should help maintain the strong growth rate of consumption. The surcharge on corporation tax has also been reduced to 5% from 7.5% thereby lowering the effective taxation rate by 0.8% While the MAT has been marginally increased to 18.5% from 18%, it is revenue neutral to the exchequer given the reduction in the surcharge. The Corporate tax collections have been estimated to grow at 19.5% to Rs 3,59,990 crore over the previous budget estimates
Old Slab
Upto Rs1,60,000 Rs 1,60,001-Rs 5,00,000 Rs5,00,001-Rs 8,00,000 Above Rs. 8,00,000
New Slab
Upto Rs 1,80,000 Rs1,80,001-Rs 5,00,000 Rs 5,00,001-Rs 8,00,000 Above Rs 8,00,000
Saving (Rs.)
2,000 4,000 6,000
Added benefits include relaxation in the age of Senior citizens to 60 years from 65 years and an additional new category of Very Senior Citizen with an enhanced exemption limit of Rs 5,00,000 Exemption limit for senior citizens has also been increased from Rs 2,40,000 to Rs 2,50,000.
Mon 28th Feb, 2011
Sector Summary
Sector
Automobiles Healthcare Banking / Financial Services Real Estate Infrastructure Power Metals & Mining FMCG
Budget Impact
Positive Marginally Positive Positive Positive Positive Marginally Positive Mixed Positive
Key Highlights
No hike in excise duties & increase in planned allocation Slight increase in duties Re-capitalization of PSU banks & Release of licenses to NBFC & private players Increased focus on Affordable Housing segment Increased plan allocation for infrastructure development & rise in disbursements Increase of plan allocation with more focus on renewable energy Abolition of import duty; Increase in Export & Ad valorem Duty No hike in excise duty & setup of Mega Food Parks Change in duty structure and reduction in duty of critical raw material
Cement
Mixed
Automobiles
Item Budget Measures Budget Impact Companies Impacted
JNNURM
Positive
Hybrid Vehicles
Positive
M&M
Auto AncillariesBatteries
Full exemption of duty on batteries in the replacement market Concessional excise duty of 10% on vehicles based on this technology
Positive
Positive
Healthcare
Item Budget Measures
Increased from Rs 22,300 crore to Rs 26,760 crore 5% on all services provided by private AC hospitals with more than 25 beds.
Budget Impact
Companies Impacted
Fund Allocation
Positive
All companies
Service Tax
Neutral
All companies
Excise Duty
Increment from 4% to 5%
All companies
Positive
All companies
Budget Measures
Marginally lower from Rs 3.45 Lac crore to Rs 3.43 Lac crore Allocation of Rs 6,000 crore to attain minimum 8% Tier-I capital by FY2011 Guidelines to be released by RBI to NBFC & Private sector players Allocation increased by 27% to Rs 4,75,000 crore Sanctioning of Rs. 5,000 crore Allocation raised by 12.5% to Rs. 18,000 crore DDT on debt schemes enhanced to 30%+ surcharge (w.e.f June 1, 2011)
Budget Impact
Neutral
Companies Impacted
All Banks
Re-capitalization
Syndicate Bank, Dena Bank, UCO Bank, etc Reliance Capital, IFCI, IDFC, L&T, REC All Banks All Banks All Banks
Banking License
Positive
Agriculture credit Take out Financing Scheme Rural Infrastructure Development Fund
Debt Schemes
Negative
Real Estate
Item Budget Measures
1% interest rate subvention scheme extended and limit enhanced to Rs 25 lacs
Budget Impact
Companies Impacted
Allocation for urban development Enhanced Housing Loan limit for dwelling units under Priority Sector Lending
Mon 28th Feb, 2011
Positive
All companies
Positive
All companies
Infrastructure
Item
Plan for infrastructure development Bharat Nirman
Budget Measures
Provision of Rs 214,000 crore (48.5% of total plan allocations) Allocation of Rs 58,000 crore Increased allocation by 9% to Rs 24,190 crore To touch Rs 25,000 crore from Rs 20,000 crore Retained additional Rs 20,000 deduction available for investment u/s 80CCF. Issue of tax free Infra bonds worth Rs 30,000 crore Allocation of Rs 74,100 crore FII limit for investment in corporate bond issued by Infra Companies has been raised to $ 40 bn
Budget Impact
Positive Positive
Companies Impacted
All Companies All Companies IRB Infra, Gayatri Project, Gammon, KNR Constructions, Jkumar Infra, etc All Companies
Road Transportation
Positive
IIFCL disbursements
Positive
Infrastructure Bonds
Positive
All Companies
Positive Positive
Power
Item Budget Measures Budget Impact Companies Impacted
T&D companies like Voltamp, BBL, Kalpataru, Jyoti Structures, Crompton Greaves
RGGVY
Positive
Concessional basic excise duty of 2.5 % on capital goods for the expansion of existing UMPPs
Positive
BHEL, Siemens
Solar power
Reduction of custom duty on solar lanterns from 10 % to 5% . Reduction of basic customs duty to nil on a few more inputs used in the manufacture of solar modules/ cells.
Selectively Positive
Metals / Mining
Item
Budget Measures
Budget Impact
Companies Impacted
Custom Duty
Abolition of import duty on stainless steel scrap & cut in the duty on Ferro nickel
Iron Ore- 15% in case of lumps & 5% in case of fines; 20% ad valorem
Negative
Sesa Goa
Pellets- Exempted from export duty to encourage value addition process for fines
Positive
FMCG
Item
Excise Duty
Budget Measures
Excise duty retained at 10% To set up 15 additional parks Exempted from Excise Duty
Budget Impact
Positive
Companies Impacted
All FMCG companies Food processing companies HUL, P&G, Nirma
Positive
Crude palm
Positive
Tobacco products
No hike in excise duty Rs 300 crore allocation to increase plantation by 60,000 hectares Excise Duty reduced from 10% to 1%
Positive
Positive
Positive
P&G
Cement
Item Budget Measures Budget Impact Companies Impacted
Composite rates having an ad valorem and specific component to replace existing duty structure
Negative
All companies
Raw Materials
Reduction in basic custom duty to 2.5% on two critical raw materials petcoke and gypsum
Positive
All companies
Miscellaneous
Item / Sector Budget Measures No extension of STPI scheme; levy of MAT at 18.5% Excise duty of 1% being imposed on branded jewellery & articles of precious metals 5% Service tax on Hotel accommodation in excess of declared tariff of Rs. 1,000 / day Reduction in concessional custom duty on textile intermediaries and raw silk Capital investment in fertilizer production to be classified as Infra sub sector Budget Impact Sectors & Companies Impacted All IT Companies
IT/ITES
Negative
Negative
Hotels
Neutral
Textiles
Positive
Fertilizer
Positive
Miscellaneous
Item / Sector Budget Measures Budget Impact Sectors & Companies Impacted
Aviation
Service Tax Hike1. Economy Class- by Rs. 50 for domestic flights & Rs. 250 on international journeys; 2. Higher Class- 10% on domestic journeys
Negative
Shipping
Exemption from Import Duty for spares and capital goods required or ship repair units extended to import by ship owners. Plan allocation increased by 24% to Rs. 52,057 crore
Positive
Education
Positive
Appendix
Excise duty maintained at 10% , signaling no partial roll back of fiscal stimulus Constitution Amendment Bill to roll out GST will be introduced in the current session of Parliament. Optional levy on branded garments or made-ups converted into a mandatory levy at a unified rate of 10 per cent. Reduction in custom duties on agricultural machinery, micro irrigation equipment, raw silk, textile intermediates and inputs for chemicals, ferro-alloys and paper and on certain specified inputs for the manufacture of certain technical fibre and yarn. Excise duties lowered on parts of ink-jet and laserjet printers, sanitary napkins and baby and adult diapers etc.
Rate of tax on services retained to 10% to pave the way forward for GST . New services like hotel accommodation (in excess of Rs 1,000 per day) , services provided by life insurance companies, air conditioned restaurants serving liquor, health check up/ treatment added to service tax.
Receipts
(Rs. in Crore) Total Receipts Revenue Receipt Tax revenue (Gross) Corporation tax Income tax Other taxes and Duties Customs Union Excise Duties Service Tax Taxes of the Union Less: Share of State, UT Less: Transfer to NCCF Tax Revenue for Central (Net) Non Tax Revenue Interest Receipts Dividends and Profits Other non-tax Capital Receipt Debt Receipts Mark et Borrowings Other short, medium & long term loan External Debt Others Non Debt Receipts Recoveries of loan and Advances Others Draw Down Balance of Cash 2008-09 883,956 540,259 605,298 213,395 106,046 14,936 99,879 108,613 60,941 1,488 160,179 1,800 443,319 96,940 20,717 38,607 37,616 291,101 284,396 233,630 99,596 11,015 (59,845) 6,705 6,139 566 52,596 2009-10 1,024,487 572,810 624,527 244,725 132,315 506 83,324 103,622 58,422 1,614 164,832 3,160 456,535 116,275 21,756 50,248 44,271 453,063 419,869 398,424 (9,769) 11,038 20,176 33,194 8,613 24,581 (1,386) 2010-11BE 1,108,749 682,212 746,651 301,331 128,066 603 115,000 132,000 68,000 1,651 208,997 3,560 534,094 148,118 19,253 51,309 77,556 426,537 381,408 345,010 22,464 13,934 45,129 5,129 40,000 2010-11RE 1,216,576 783,833 786,888 296,377 149,066 557 131,800 137,778 69,400 1910 219303 3900 563,685 220,148 19727.5 48726.5 151694 447,743 415,998 335414 10000 22264 48320 31,745 9001 22744 (15,000) 2011-12BE % Change 1,257,729 13.4% 789,893 15.8% 932,441 24.9% 359,990 19.5% 172,026 34.3% 635 5.4% 151,700 31.9% 164,116 24.3% 82,000 20.6% 1973.4 19.5% 263458 26.1% 4525 27.1% 664,458 24.4% 125,435 -15.3% 19578 1.7% 42624 -16.9% 63233 -18.5% 447,836 5.0% 392,816 3.0% 343000 -0.6% 15000 14500 -35.5% 20316 55,020 21.9% 15020 192.8% 40000 0.0% 20,000
* Change is calculated from budgeted estimates of 2010-11 Mon 28th Feb, 2011 Union Budget 2011-12
Expenditure
(Rs. in Crore) Total Expenditure Non Plan Expenditure Revenue Expenditure Int. Payment and Debt Servicing Defence Subsidies Others Capital Expenditure Loan and Advances to State, UT Defence Others Plan Expenditure Revenue Expenditure State Plan Central Plan Capital expenditure State Plan Central Plan 2008-09 883,956 608,721 559,024 192,204 73,305 129,708 163,807 49,697 86 40,918 8,693 275,235 234,774 68,274 166,500 40,461 8,801 31,660 2009-10 1,024,487 721,096 657,925 213,093 90,669 141,351 212,812 63,171 83 51,112 11,976 303,391 253,884 75,082 178,802 49,507 9,408 40,099 2010-11BE 1,108,749 735,657 643,599 248,664 87,344 116,224 191,367 92,058 89 60,000 31,969 373,092 315,125 84,244 230,881 57,967 8,248 49,719 2010-11RE 1,216,576 821,552 726,749 240,757 90,748 164,153 231,091 94,803 85 60,833 33,885 395,024 326,928 84,894 242,034 68,096 11,518 56,578 2011-12BE % Change 1,257,729 13.4% 816,182 10.9% 733,558 14.0% 267,986 7.8% 95,216 9.0% 143,570 23.5% 226,786 18.5% 82,624 -10.2% 85 -4.2% 69,199 15.3% 13,340 -58.3% 441,547 18.3% 363,604 15.4% 95,317 13.1% 268,287 16.2% 77,943 34.5% 10,709 29.8% 67,234 35.2%
Ratios
Rs. Crore GDP Nominal Gross Fiscal Deficit Fiscal deficit as a % of GDP Revenue Deficit Revenue deficit as a % of GDP Primary Deficit Primary deficit as a % of GDP 2008-09 5,574,449 336,992 6.05% 253,539 4.55% 144,788 2.60% 2009-10 6,164,178 418,482 6.79% 338,999 5.50% 205,389 3.33% 2010-11BE 6,934,700 381,408 5.50% 276,512 3.99% 132,744 1.91% 2010-11RE 7,877,947 400,998 5.09% 269,844 3.43% 160,241 2.03% 2011-12BE % Change 8,980,860 29.5% 412,816.50 8.2% 4.60% -16.4% 307,269 11.1% 3.42% -14.2% 144,831 9.1% -15.8% 1.61%
932441
2009-10
Plan Expenditure
Plan Expenditure
441547 373092 275235 303391 395024
500000 450000 400000 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0
Rs. in Crore
2009-10
2010-11RE
2011-12BE
1000000 800000
608721 600000 400000 200000 0 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11BE RE - Int Payment & Debt Servicing RE- Subsidies CE- Loan and Advances to State, UT CE- Others Revenue Expenditure (RE) 2010-11RE 2011-12BE RE- Defence RE Others CE- Defence Capital Expenditure (CE)
Interest payments
Interest Payments
300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11BE 2010-11RE 2011-12BE 3.1% 3.0% 3.1% 2.9% 2.7% 2.5% Rs. in Crore 3.4% 3.5% 3.6% 3.7% 3.5% 3.3%
Int. Payment and Debt Servicing (LHS) Interest Payment as a %of GDP (RHS)
Mon 28th Feb, 2011
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