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Ngn lu ti chnh
Khi nim ngn lu t do (FCF Free Cash Flow):
Ngn lu t do l dng tin cui cng ch thuc v
nhng ngi c quyn li trong d n (ch s hu v
ch n).
Ngn lu t do ca d n = Ngn lu ca ch s hu +
Ngn lu ca ch n.
D n c thm nh v mt ti chnh c da trn
vic c lng v nh gi ngn lu t do.
Cc phng php lp ngn lu: Trc tip v Gin tip
Ng Thanh Tr
Cc bc c lng ngn lu t do ca d n
1. Ngn lu hot ng vo
2. Ngn lu hot ng ra
Mt s quy c
1 - Ngn lu vo ca d n
Doanh thu:
Biu doanh thu c thit lp da trn c s d bo gi v sn lng
Doanh thu gp = Gi * Sn lng
Doanh thu rng = Doanh thu gp Cc khon gim tr (Chit khu hng
bn/Hng bn b tr li) Thu VAT (hay thu doanh thu)
Thu t thanh l:
Thanh l ti sn: Xy ra vo nm thanh l ti sn, cui i d n.
D kin gi tr thanh l:
+ i vi ti sn l nh xng, my mc, thit b: Thng thng
bng vi gi tr cn li (c tnh n yu t lm pht)
Gi tr cn li = Nguyn gi Khu hao tch ly
+ i vi t ai: t ai l ti sn khng tnh khu hao. Gi tr thanh
l ca t khng bao gm yu t tng gi t trn th trng gi tr thanh
l cui cng bng vi gi tr u t ban u.
Ng Thanh Tr
1 - Ngn lu vo (tt)
Mt s ngn lu vo khc:
Hon thu
Thay i khon phi thu
Tr cp (nu c)
Vn nhn ti tr (trn quan im nhn u
t)
Ng Thanh Tr
2 - Ngn lu ra ca d n
Chi ph u t
Chi ph hot ng
Chi ph c hi
Np thu (Lu Thm nh v mt ti chnh, thu TNDN l ngn lu
ra ca DA v ch u t nhng l ngn lu vo ca Chnh ph.
Nhng xt trn quan im c nn kinh t, thu ch l khon chuyn giao)
Mt s ngn lu ra khc:
Thay i khon phi tr
Thay i qu tin mt
2.1 - Chi ph u t ca d n
Cng tc thit k k thut chi tit ca d n l c s c
tnh chi ph u t.
u t ban u
Ngn lu ra hng nm trong thi gian xy dng
Li vay trong thi gian xy dng:
- Khng tnh vo CP u t ban u (trn quan im ca d
n hay tng u t)
- Cc khon thc tr li vay trong thi gian xy dng c tch
hp trong lch tr n.
u t thay th v u t mi
Ngn lu ra hng nm trong thi gian hot ng
Ng Thanh Tr
2.3 - Chi ph c hi
CPCH cho vic s dng mt ngun lc trong DA l li ch ln nht b
b qua khi khng s dng ngun lc ny vo mt hot ng khc.
VD1: d n trng u phng 1 trang tri vn trc kia trng thuc l,
CPCH c a vo ngn lu ra ca d n chnh l thu nhp t cy thuc l.
VD2: t ai
- t ai cng l CPCH ca DA. Ngay khi DA c chnh quyn cp t min
ph, chi ph v t vn phi c tnh trong tng chi ph u t ca DA theo
gi th trng t ai trong khu vc.
- CPCH ca t cng c th c a vo trong ngn lu ra ca DA theo mc
gi thu t hng nm. Khi , chi ph ban u ca t hay gi tr thanh l
t khng c a vo bin dng ngn lu ca DA na.
- Khng bao gi k li/l v t nh khan thu/chi i vi khon u t v
t nu nh khng c s ci thin/tn ph trc tip i vi t ai gy ra bi
DA.
Ng Thanh Tr
Chi ph u t
u t ban u (1996-99)
Thay th my mc thit b
Khu hao
Cng trnh xy dng vi u t ban u 13,8 triu USD, khu hao trong 20
nm:
Nm 1
Nm 2
X1 = Y0
X2 = Y1
1 = 1
2 = 1 + 1
(4) u t mi
I0
I1
I2
Y1 = I0
Y1 = X1 1 + I1
Y2 = X2 2 + I2
K hiu:
Xt = TSC rng u k trong nm t
Yt = TSC rng cui k trong nm t
It = u t mi trong nm t
t = khu hao trong nm t
t = khu hao ly tch tnh n ht nm t
Ng Thanh Tr
1998
1999
2000
2018
2019
22
23
9506
33116
35261
4196
1970
1889
1889
2226
289
1889
3778
40015
40303
u t mi
23610
4034
330
33116
35261
33702
1970
1682
Nm
TSC rng u k
Ng Thanh Tr
N vay
Cc hnh thc tr n gc ph bin
Tr ht mt ln vo thi im o hn
Tr u hng nm t nm th nht sau khi rt vn hay sau thi gian n
hn
Tng gi tr n gc v li c tr u hng nm
Tr li:
Tnh trn d n u k: Li vay = Li sut * D n u k
Lu :
Nu vic tr li v vn gc c thc hin hng thng hay bn nin th lp
lch tr n theo hng thng hay bn nin ri sau cng gp li theo nm
c c lch tr n hng nm.
Quy c l dng php cng n gin thay v tnh chit khu mc d v
mt kinh t ti chnh th cng n gin l khng chnh xc do sai s l nh.
Khi DA c nhiu khon vay khc nhau, lp lch tr n cho tng khon vay
ri sau cng li c c mt lch tr n hp nht.
Ng Thanh Tr
Lch tr n
Nm 0
Nm 1
Nm 2
D n u k
X1 = Y0
X2 = Y1
N gii ngn
L0
L1
L2
Tr li vay
R1
R2
Tr n gc
Tr li v n gc
R1 + 1
R2 + 2
Y0 = L0
Y1 = X1 + L1 1
Y2 = X2 + L2 2
D n cui k
K hiu
Phng trnh cn bn:
Xt = d n u k nm t
Xt = Yt-1
Yt = d n cui k nm t
Yi = Xt + Lt t
Lt = n gii ngn trong nm t D n cui k lc o hn = 0
Rt v t ph thuc vo cc iu
Rt = tr li vay trong nm t
khon c th ca hp ng vay n
t = tr n gc trong nm t Ng Thanh Tr
N vay
Mnh gi: 25.000 (nghn USD)
Li sut: 8,5%, tr bn nin vo 1/6 v 1/12 hng nm.
K hn: 7 nm (t 1/6/1998 n 1/6/2005)
Thi gian gii ngn: 1 nm (t 1/6/1998 n 1/6/1999)
1/6/98
1/9/98
1/12/98
1/3/99
Gii ngn
7.500
7.500
7.500
2.500
Thi gian n hn: 0,5 nm (t 1/6/1999 n 1/12/1999)
S ln tr n gc
= (K hn vay Thi gian gii ngn Thi gian n hn) * S
ln tr n gc trong nm
= (7 1 0,5)*2 = 11 ln (t 1/6/2000 n 1/6/2005)
Gi tr thanh ton n vn bn nin
= Mnh gi/S ln tr n gc
= 25.000/11 = 2.273 (nghn USD)
Ng Thanh Tr
10
Li vay tr vo 1/12/98:
Li vay tr vo 1/6/99:
Li vay tr vo 1/12/00:
Li vay tr hng nm
Lch tr n
1998
1999
2000
2004
2005
22.500
25.000
6.818
2.273
22.500
2.500
Tr li vay
478
2.072
2.028
483
97
Tr n gc
4.545
4.545
2.273
478
2.072
6.574
5.028
2.369
22.500
25.000
20,455
2.273
Nm
D n u k
Gii ngn
Tr li & n gc
D n
Ng Thanh Tr
11
2000
2001
2018
2019
22
23
Nm
Cng sut cam kt
('000 m3/ngy)
100
100
100
100
100
95%
100%
100%
100%
100%
306
366
365
365
91
29070
36600
36500
36500
9100
Sn lng nc bn/nm
Doanh thu gp
Thu doanh thu
Doanh thu rng
=
=
=
=
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
5814
7320
7300
7300
1820
58
73
73
73
18
5756
7247
7227
7227
1802
1999
Nm
Ha cht
Nng lng
2000
2018
2019
22
23
138
173
173
43
1196
1506
1502
374
Lao ng
42
52
52
13
Bo tr v chi ph khc
35
44
44
11
Cng
1410
1775
1771
441
Ph qun l v bo tr
288
362
361
90
Lng nc sn xut
= Lng nc bn ra * H s (110%)
Chi ph ca mt nhp lng = Lng nc sn xut * H s chi ph ca
nhp lng
Ph qun l v bo tr
= Doanh thu rng * H s (5%)
Ng Thanh Tr
12
Bo co thu nhp
Phng trnh cn bn:
Li nhun gp = Doanh thu rng Chi ph hot ng (hay
gi vn hng bn)
Li nhun trc li vay v thu (EBIT) = Li nhun gp
Ph qun l Khu hao
Li nhun trc thu (EBT) = EBIT Li vay
Thu thu nhp doanh nghip = EBT * Thu sut
Li nhun rng = EBT Thu thu nhp DN
Li nhun gi li = Li nhun rng C tc
Li nhun gi li ly tch nm nay = Li nhun gi li ly
tch nm trc + Li nhun gi li nm nay
Ng Thanh Tr
Bo co thu nhp
n v: '000 USD
Nm
Doanh thu t bn nc
1999
2000
2003
2018
2019
22
23
5814
7320
7300
7300
1820
58
73
73
73
18
5756
7247
7227
7227
1802
1410
1775
1771
1771
441
4346
5471
5456
5456
1360
288
362
361
361
90
1889
1889
1899
2226
289
2869
982
- Chi ph hot ng
Li nhun gp
- Ph qun l v bo tr
- Khu hao
Li nhun trc li vay v thu
2169
3220
3196
- Chi ph li vay
2072
2028
869
2169
1192
2326
2869
982
116
287
98
2169
1192
2210
2582
883
- Thu li nhun
Li nhun sau thu
Ng Thanh Tr
13
Ngn lu ti chnh
n v: '000 USD
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2018
2019
22
23
Ngn lu h/ vo =
Doanh thu rng
5756
7247
7227
1802
Chi ph hot ng
1410
1775
1771
441
288
362
361
90
1698
2138
2132
532
Nm
Ph qun l v bo tr
Tng chi ph
Thu li nhun
287
98
Ngn lu h/ ra
1698
2138
2419
630
4058
5109
4808
1172
4034
330
4808
1172
4808
1172
Ngn lu h/ rng
Chi ph u t
1560
7946
23610
Ngn lu t do d n
-1560
-7946
Ngn lu ch n
Ngn lu ch s hu
-1560
-7946
-23610
24
4779
-22022
-428
6574
-1588
452
-1795
Ng Thanh Tr
Biu ngn lu t do ca DA
10,000
5,000
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
(5,000)
(10,000)
(15,000)
(20,000)
(25,000)
Ng Thanh Tr
14
Biu ngn lu ca ch s hu
6,000
4,000
2,000
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
(2,000)
(4,000)
(6,000)
(8,000)
Ng Thanh Tr
Chi tr li vay
Chi tr n gc
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Ng Thanh Tr
15
Lp bo co ngn lu
1. Bng doanh thu Ngn lu vo ca DA
2. Bng Chi u t v Bng Lch khu hao
3. Bng chi ph hot ng
4. Bng bo co thu nhp ( tnh Thu TNDN)
(2) + (3) + (4): Ngn lu ra ca DA
5. Bng Lch tr n Ngn lu n vay (trn quan im ca
DA)
Ngn lu rng ca DA = Ngn lu vo - Ngn lu ra
Ngn lu n vay (trn quan im ca DA) = Gii ngn n Tr
vn li vay v vn gc
Ngn lu ch s hu = Ngn lu ca d n + Ngn lu n vay
Ng Thanh Tr
16