Professional Documents
Culture Documents
20012006
2003
GOULD
1
2
Louis Li
20
2004
2005
2009 85
20
Buffett
Buffet
1930
1990
1996
1998 1
1997
10
19%
19731974
1998
//
Long-Short
LongShort
100%
20012002
2003
50
1819
2003
50
1990
2008 2009
1996 72
86
86
valet park 45
engage lifeisolated
6000
40
50
20
20
100
45
2000
23
2010 3
1733 1758
1959
45
40
20
1819
beta
20
2007 5 13
GOULD
60
100
lollapalooza
LOLLAPALOOZA
lollapalooza
100
lollapalooza
100
1997 12 29
1%3%
77
70
400
77
Louis LiLL
2004
25
IBM
2000
GEIGO
1803 1500
2.9 1867
720
2.5 2006
16700
320
320
lollapalooza
13 23
2004
175000
1994 10 6
2001 2006
30 www.berkshirehathaway.com
1998
9
2001 2006
80.1%
2003
80
2001 2006
1.
2.
2001 2006
3%
13%
13%
3%
1.
2001 2006
2. 15 20
15 20
1999 11 22
20
2001 2006
90%
GO GO
GO
CEO
2001 2006
20
2001 2006
CEO
100%
25%
CORT
CORT CEO
2001 2006
10%
5000
2001 2006
72
40
2001 2006
&1964
2001 2006
10 100 400
98%
500
2001 2006
2% 98%
Beta
15
2001 2006
12%
12%
10
1
2001 2006
1.
2.
100
2001 2006
20 20
2001 2006
2001 2006
2001 4 20 30
600 600
2000 11 15%
50 60
6%
2001 4
2001 5
1973-1974
1982
2001 2006
0.625%
2002
35% 40%
2004 5
700
2001 2006
2001 2006
Serpico Effects
1970 1973
2001 2006
2%
3% 4%
vs
1%
2001 2006
2001 2006
2002
1995 8 15
25
20
2001 2006
EBITDA
EBITDA
IBM 10%
2000 9% 6%
2001 2006
CEO
Mayo Clinic
Cravath
90 90
30 60
60
2001 2006
88
2001 2006
2001 2006
GAAP
2001 2006
2001 2006
O. J.
2001 2006
25%
2001 2006
2000 4
2001 2006
100
100
140
14
16
2001 2006
Teledyne
30
100
1963 1990 Teledyne
20.4% 8%
1972 1984
90% Teledyne
2001 2006
18611947
2001 2006
2001 2006
2001 2006
18%
1%
2001 2006
62
20
1999 2000
2000
2001 2006
25 1990
2005
25
25
500 6.8
1990
2001 2006
500
20
80
1986 6 13
1.
2.
20
1.
2.
3.
60
X
X
180
1986
1986
2006 1986
1.
2.
1995 5 5
1994
1994 4 14
1623-16621601-1665
C. F.
10
20
90%
Social
Proof
ABC
AT&T
AT&T
CBS
CBS
27
42
42
15%
40%
60%
20 4%
NCR
20% 80%
20% 80%
195
1 100 2 3
17%
17%
10%
17% 17%
17%
17%
50% 70%
70%
1000
20 20
IBM
IBM
20 30
600
600
20 30
IBM IBM
IBM
IBM 60
19571969
40
56
40 6% 40
6%
18%
1942-
1932-1994
30 15%
35% 13.3%
15% 35%
1 5% 1 5% 3 5 %
.75%15%-15%35%=9.75%
3.5%
30 3.5%
10% 30 35%
8.3% 35%
6.5%
200
1% 3%
1%
1950
50 60 70
IBM
GoizuetaKeough
1973 1974
90%
GEIGO
100
20 30
2006
12
3 2005
1LBO
1
2
900
450
1994
12
12
12
1996 4 19
30
19
Nat Myhrvold
Value Line
25 40
100 200
100
StevePinker
Noam Chomsky
lollapalooza
Milgram
lollapalooza
ABCD
ABCD
B. F. B.
F.Skinner
20 20 10
lollapalooza
lollapalooza
lollapalooza
James
Cook
AB
2% 2%
98%
10
USAir
Capital Cities
50
1962
1965
100
1938-
12 50
14
25
20
30 900
10% 11%
15
15
Bonanza Effects
10
15%
15%
CEO
14
X
SkaddenArpsJoe Flom
A
B
CEO
CEO CEO
CEO
CEO
CEO
20
1960
24
20
Dawkins
Robert CialdiniB. F.
70
10
1996
1
2
2006 3
1996
2005
1. 1992 2 2 Bray
2. 1994 10 6
3. 1995 4 24
2005
81 10
1.
2.
15
15
Ed Rothschild
Diogenes
John L. Lewis
20
Jacob Viner
pastern
Influence
Robert Cialdini
A 2010 3 12 2000
10
E. O. E. O.Wilson
/
/
lollapalooza
95%
Xerox Corporation
19091971
B. F.
1
2
3
John
HenryPatterson
Horace
Westinghouse
95%
95%
95%
Kidder Peabody
Enron
1000
40
/
/
/
1
2
3
/
/
Fred Buffett
/
/
/
12
3
12
John Keynes
12
categorical imperative
300
/
/
/
/
/
/
E.O.
18
1
2
3
road rage
/
CEO
1
2
500
500
19181992
1/6
1/6 50% 3
PhoeniciansAztecs
PunicWars 264
146
CEO
CBS
William Samuel Paley19011990
CBS CBS
90 90
90
40
18
95%
95%
50%
0% 50%
50%
90%
19541999
2005 CEO
12
12
1
2
50
300
10 10
1000 300
100
1
2
12
1930
BARBAR-
300
Belridge 115
1500
173000
3700
540
12
3
1 0
Judith Rich
Harris
1
2
19042000
Northwest Bell
1000
65000
Acute
StressDepression
Pavlovian Conditioning
20 20
12
3
4
12
12
3
12
20
90%
1
2
B.F.
RosettaStone
lollapalooza
snapping
1
2
20
28
FDA
Double Blind
1959
A+B
A
A+B
81 50
15
1
2
3
2000
The Nuture Assumption
67
2006
67
12
1
2
3
4 [1]
5
6
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11.610.4 (11.6
X 0.89) 10.7 (13.5 X 0.80)
56 (10.4+10.7+
11.1+11.5+11.9)
16% 16%
7% 26.1 (24.4 X 1.07)
7%
12%()521.4 (26.1/(12%-7%))
(Present value) 295
(521.4 X 0.57)
8. (Growth rate): 5 .
9. (Cash flow in year 6):
6 (Terminal Value)
11. (Terminal Value)
12. (Discount factor as of year 5)
= (9)/(10)
13.
5
1. .
.
.2002 10
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
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20 1.2 20 0.24
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15
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60 40
1981
12
17
2007
19 20
10 20
2008 8
200
1920 1929
20 30
-------
30
50 1
10
50
10
20 50
100
50
----
1973 0.11
35
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14
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39
35
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H&R
H&R
122
122
com/investor/home. aspwww.finance.yahoo.com
MSN.com
SEC
8Q
10K
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Bloomberg.com
MSN
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700
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200
1 275
225
1 500
525
975
2007 1 1 2007 12 31
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1.2
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300
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61% 51%
14% 21%
17%
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20% 20%
10
11
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59%
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5
28%83% 5
89%780%
30%
30%50%
100%
10
72%
13
10 000
3 000
7 000
2 100
000
700
3 200
29%
49%
78%
30%
25%
59%
14
10 000
3 000
7 000
2 100
1 000
700
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XYZ 100
10 10
100
10 10
100 XYZ 10
10
100
100 10
10
10 10
100
100
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10
100
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6
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10 000
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AAA
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1500
525
35%
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19
2100
1000
700
3200
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1275
225
1500
525
975
100
20 1 000 50
20% 5%
21%
31%
7%
3%
20%
10%
10%~20%
20
1 000
100 10
10
10 10
2008
295
2007
268
2006
237
2005
217
2004
206
2003
195
2002
165
2001
160
2000
148
1999
130
1998
142
2008
250
2007
045
2006
389
2005
605
2004
639
2003
503
2002
335
2001
177
2000
668
1999
835
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524
4=
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//
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54.7 10 2008
9.7
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2.
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10
51
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10
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10
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10 3.67
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10
10
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20% 28%
36% 23% 19% 5%
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3149
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4341
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31.49
2.19 43.41
9.37
1000 100
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50
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0.70 0.46
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6.36 34 2007
54 344
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9.35% 2007
3.96 2.57
6.5 2007 3.96
60 40
2007 6.5
54
830 540.065830
2007
726-855
830
54
1998 1.28
2007 3.31
10.15 2008 32%
49%
1972 2500 2007
8200
328%
55
1987 6.50
0.70 0.46
10%
10.7%
10% 1987 10
10%
1987 10%
2007 4.35 2.82
2007
66% 43%
2007 45-64
64
12.11%
12.11%
12.11%
12.11%
640
56
10
20 80 6.50
0.46 7%
2007 2.57
6.50 2.57
39.9% 21
2.2% 2007
12%$2.57$21=12%
39.9%
58
58
360
20 1000
500 2%
2% 500 20
740 8%
500 20 2300
40
()
4208
2220 1380
33517
2260 5535
5919
133
258
12005
13225
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11955
AAA
:
accounts receivable
accumulated depreciation :
amortization
asset
balance sheet)
bond
book value
capital expenditure
cash flow
common stock
(competitive
advantage)
current asset
current liabilities
current radio
depreciation
EBITDA
financial statement
goodwill
gross margin
gross profit
income statement
5~10
intangible assets
interest expense
inventory
leverage
liabilities
long-term debt
mediocre business
net income
operating expenses
operating profit
outstanding shares
preferred stock
prepaid expense
retained earnings
return on equity
revenues
SGA
SGA
shareholders equity
undervalued company