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Louis Li

20012006




2003

GOULD

1
2

Louis Li

20

2004

2005

2009 85

20

Buffett
Buffet

1930

1990

1996

1998 1

1997
10

19%

19731974

1998

//

Long-Short
LongShort
100%


20012002

2003

2004 2009 36%


1998 1 29%12
20

50

1819

2003

50

1990

2008 2009

1996 72
86

86

valet park 45

engage lifeisolated

6000

40

50
20

20


100

45

2000


23

2010 3

1733 1758

1959

45

40

20

1819

beta

20
2007 5 13
GOULD

60

100

lollapalooza

LOLLAPALOOZA


lollapalooza

100
lollapalooza

100

1997 12 29

1%3%


77

70
400
77

Louis LiLL
2004

25

IBM

2000

GEIGO


1803 1500
2.9 1867
720
2.5 2006
16700

320

320

lollapalooza

13 23

2004

175000

1994 10 6

2001 2006

30 www.berkshirehathaway.com

1998
9

2001 2006

80.1%

2003

80

2001 2006

1.

2.

2001 2006

3%

13%

13%
3%

1.

2001 2006

2. 15 20
15 20

1999 11 22

20

2001 2006

90%

GO GO
GO

CEO

2001 2006

20

2001 2006

CEO
100%

25%

CORT
CORT CEO

2001 2006

10%

5000

2001 2006

72

40

2001 2006

&1964

2001 2006

10 100 400

98%

500

2001 2006

2% 98%

Beta

15

2001 2006

12%
12%

10
1

2001 2006

1.
2.

100

2001 2006

20 20

2001 2006

2001 2006

2001 4 20 30
600 600

2000 11 15%

50 60

6%

2001 4

2001 5

1973-1974
1982

2001 2006

0.625%

2002
35% 40%

2004 5

700

2001 2006

2001 2006

Serpico Effects
1970 1973

2001 2006

2%
3% 4%

vs

1%

2001 2006

600 Diversified Retailing

2001 2006

2002

1995 8 15


25

20

2001 2006

EBITDA

EBITDA

IBM 10%
2000 9% 6%

2001 2006

CEO
Mayo Clinic
Cravath

90 90

30 60
60

2001 2006

88

2001 2006

2001 2006

GAAP


2001 2006

2001 2006

O. J.

2001 2006

25%

2001 2006

2000 4

2001 2006

100

100

140

14

16
2001 2006

Teledyne
30

100
1963 1990 Teledyne
20.4% 8%
1972 1984
90% Teledyne

2001 2006

18611947

2001 2006

2001 2006

2001 2006

18%

1%


2001 2006

62

20

1999 2000

2000
2001 2006

25 1990

2005
25
25
500 6.8

1990

2001 2006


500

20
80

1986 6 13

1.
2.

20

1.
2.
3.

60

X
X

180

1986

1986

2006 1986
1.
2.

1995 5 5
1994

1994 4 14

1623-16621601-1665

C. F.

10

20

90%

Social
Proof

ABC

AT&T

AT&T

CBS

CBS

27

42
42

15%
40%

60%

20 4%

NCR

20% 80%

20% 80%
195

1 100 2 3

17%
17%

10%
17% 17%

17%

17%

50% 70%
70%

1000

20 20

IBM
IBM

20 30
600

600
20 30

IBM IBM

IBM
IBM 60

19571969

40

56

40 6% 40
6%
18%

1942-
1932-1994

30 15%
35% 13.3%

15% 35%
1 5% 1 5% 3 5 %
.75%15%-15%35%=9.75%
3.5%
30 3.5%

10% 30 35%
8.3% 35%
6.5%

200

1% 3%
1%

1950
50 60 70
IBM

GoizuetaKeough

1973 1974 1932


40 50 1994

1973 1974

90%
GEIGO
100

20 30

2006
12

3 2005

1LBO

Fixed Income Arbitrage

1
2

900
450

1994
12
12

12

1996 4 19


30

19

Nat Myhrvold

Value Line

25 40
100 200

100

StevePinker

Noam Chomsky

lollapalooza
Milgram

lollapalooza

ABCD

ABCD

B. F. B.
F.Skinner

20 20 10

lollapalooza
lollapalooza

lollapalooza

James
Cook

AB

2% 2%

98%

10

USAir

Capital Cities

50


1962
1965

100

1938-
12 50

14

25

20

30 900


10% 11%

15
15
Bonanza Effects

10

15%

15%

CEO

14
X

SkaddenArpsJoe Flom

A
B

CEO

CEO CEO

CEO

CEO

CEO

20

1960

24

20

Dawkins

Robert CialdiniB. F.

70
10

1996

1
2

2006 3

1996

2005

1. 1992 2 2 Bray

2. 1994 10 6

3. 1995 4 24

2005
81 10
1.
2.

15

15

Ed Rothschild

Diogenes

John L. Lewis

20

Jacob Viner

pastern

Influence
Robert Cialdini

A 2010 3 12 2000

10


E. O. E. O.Wilson


/
/

lollapalooza


95%

Xerox Corporation
19091971

B. F.

1
2
3

John
HenryPatterson

Horace

Westinghouse

95%
95%

95%

Kidder Peabody

Enron

1000

40

/
/

/
1
2
3
/
/

Fred Buffett

/
/

/
12
3

12

John Keynes

12

categorical imperative

300

/
/

/
/

/
/

E.O.
18
1
2
3

road rage

/
CEO

1
2

500

500

19181992

1/6

1/6 50% 3

PhoeniciansAztecs

PunicWars 264
146

CEO
CBS
William Samuel Paley19011990
CBS CBS

90 90

90
40

18

95%
95%

50%
0% 50%
50%


90%

19541999
2005 CEO
12

12

1
2

50

300

10 10

1000 300
100

1
2

12

1930

BARBAR-

300
Belridge 115
1500

173000

3700
540

12
3

1 0

Judith Rich
Harris

1
2

19351964 Catherine Susan Genovese

19042000
Northwest Bell

1000
65000

Acute
StressDepression

Pavlovian Conditioning
20 20

12
3
4

12


12
3

12


20

Ignacy Jan Paderewski18601941

Two drops, twice a day, r.ear r.ear


rear

90%
1
2

B.F.

RosettaStone

lollapalooza

snapping

1
2

20

28

FDA
Double Blind

1959

A+B
A
A+B

81 50
15

1
2
3

2000
The Nuture Assumption

67

2006

67

12

1
2
3
4 [1]

5
6

[]

p=
P
n
CFt () t
r

[]

[]
[1]

,,,
,
,
,,(DCF)

,
,
,:
a.,;
b.,,
,:
, DCF ;
, DCF ,
()
,
a.,,
(CAPM),
,
,

b.,
,,
,
c.,/
,
,
,,,
,,
,,
,

[]

11.610.4 (11.6
X 0.89) 10.7 (13.5 X 0.80)
56 (10.4+10.7+
11.1+11.5+11.9)

16% 16%
7% 26.1 (24.4 X 1.07)
7%
12%()521.4 (26.1/(12%-7%))
(Present value) 295
(521.4 X 0.57)

351 (55.6 + 295.9)

5 (Project 5 years Cash flows)


1. (Prior year cash flow):
2. (Growth rate):
3. (Cash flow):
= (n-1) X (1+0.16) n = 1,2, 7, 5
4. (Discount factor): =
1/(1+0.12)^n, n = 1, 2, 7, 5
5. (Present value):
= (3) X (4)
6.

(Terminal Value/Residual Value):


5
7. (Cash flow in year 5):

8. (Growth rate): 5 .
9. (Cash flow in year 6):

10. (Required rate of return minus growth rate):

6 (Terminal Value)
11. (Terminal Value)
12. (Discount factor as of year 5)
= (9)/(10)
13.
5

1. .
.
.2002 10

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38
39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

1 20
1 0.2 1.20
20 1.2 20 0.24

10 6.19
201.238
1 123
1.238 ?
5 1.238
5 24.76 1 24

20 80 6.5
0.70 0.46
15

6.5 10.7
15

9.35 2007
3.96 2.57
6.5 2007 3.96
60 40

2007 3.96 2.57


6.5 60
3.960.065.2007 45-64

1981
12

17

2007

19 20

10 20


2008 8

200

1920 1929

20 30
-------

30


50 1

10
50
10

20 50

100

50

----

1973 0.11
35
14 0.11
14

50 1976 0.16
39
35
1020
12460% 14

H&R

H&R

122
122

MSN.comhttp//money central. msn.

com/investor/home. aspwww.finance.yahoo.com
MSN.com

SEC

8Q
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Bloomberg.com
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1.
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10

2.
30%
3.

4.

5.

15%
6.

7.
20%
8. 10
10 10

10 000
3 000
7 000
2 100
1 000
700
3 200
200
1 275
225
1 500
525
975

2007 1 1 2007 12 31

10 000
3 000
7 000

1.2
1.2

10 000
3 000
7 000


1 000
200
700 500

10

10 000
3 000
7 000

7 000 10 000 70%

1 000 700
300

60% 73%
61% 51%

14% 21%
17%
20%
79%

33%

40%
40%
20% 20%

10

11

10 000
3 000
7 000

2 100
1 000
700
3 200

12

10 000
3 000
7 000

2 100
1 000
700
3 200

59%
25% 61%

5
28%83% 5
89%780%

30%
30%50%
100%

10

72%

13

10 000
3 000
7 000

2 100
000
700
3 200

29%
49%
78%

30%

25%

59%

14

10 000
3 000
7 000

2 100
1 000
700
3 200

XYZ 100
10 10

100
10 10
100 XYZ 10
10

100
100 10
10
10 10
100
100
10 10

10 10
XYZ

10

100

100

6
7
8
2257

15

10 000
3 000
7 000

2 100
1 000
700
3 200
200

8
7

49

61
92

15

14 30
5

AAA

70
2006
70 2007

230

2008 3 170
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16

2 100
1 000
700
3 200
200
1 275
225

100
50 80
30 40
10

17

2 100
1 000
700
3 200
200
1 275
225
1 500

1.39
2 270
2 200
4 500 4 500
2.5 3
50

18

2100
1000
700
3200

200
1275
225
1500
525

35%

35%

19

2100
1000
700
3200

200

1275

225

1500

525

975

100
20 1 000 50

20% 5%

21%
31%
7%

3%

20%
10%

10%~20%

20


1 000
100 10

10
10 10

2008
295
2007
268
2006
237
2005
217
2004
206
2003
195
2002
165
2001
160
2000
148
1999
130
1998
142

2008
250
2007
045
2006
389
2005
605
2004
639
2003
503
2002
335
2001
177
2000
668
1999
835
1998
524

4=
1

7=

34
10=
0.80

11

12

13=

14

21

10
2.5 7.5
10 17.5
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1 380

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5 919

2 260

133

258

//

12 005

8 493
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3 317
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//

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4 208

2 220

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4208

2220

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1
()

29

//

12005
8493
4246
7863
7777
2675
0
43059

14 10
5
560 400

1990 10 2008
54.7 10 2008
9.7
46

30
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12006
//
8493

4245

7863

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31

12005
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8493

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33

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/
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8 493

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43 059

430
12% 1 430 7%
520 24%
17 43%

430
17

35

/
/ ()

1 380

5 535

5 919

133

258

13 225

36

/
/ ()

1 380

5 535

5 919

133

258

13 225

1 000 1 000
1 000

38
/
/

1 380
5 535
5 919
133
258
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(
)

39

1 380

5 535

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133

258

13 225

1 1 1
2 8
,
1

(
28 )

40

13 225

3 277

1 890

3 133

21 525

10
10

34

10

3 4

20 80
-

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13 225

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3 133

21 525

80%

90%
80
100 l00

10
100
90
?

42

/


13 225
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1 890
0
3 133
21 525

0.63
0.51

0.71;
0.68 1 68
4.35
38.0 1 38
72 2750

1
10

M&T
M&T 7.7

0.80

43 /
/

/
/

21 525

0
880
7 378
36 235
-23 375
626
21 774

43 269

44

/
/

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7 378

36 235
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100
120 100
20
1
10 1
9

45

880

7 378

36 235
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626

21 774

100
1965 19 2007 78 000

2007
59 31
28

5 7.9%
10.9%
15.6
23

2005 130
310

19652007
1965 4 2007 13 023
21

10

46

0
880
7 378
36 235
-23 375
626
21 774

49

50

47

880

7 378

36 235
-
-23 375

626

21 774

48

30
24
33 34


15 4

49
7% 1
12%
5% 500

6% 1000 7%
1000 1% 10
10

6%
8%

1.
10

50%
25%

2.

50

5 981

1 163

125

7 269

1 648

5 071

6 719

3 149

219

4 341

973

7 269

6 719

973

1 523
19:15:12

10

51

1 648
5 071
6 719

10 20.21
4.01 19%
10
14.24 0.84
5%
10
31.64 140.42
10 3.67
34.88
444%
950%

10
10

49%
20% 28%
36% 23% 19% 5%
50%

25%

3149

219

4341

937
31.49
2.19 43.41
9.37

1000 100
10 200
50
20

53
20 80

20 80 6.5
0.70 0.46
15%

6.5 10.7% 15%

60 40
6.5
20 15%

10.7% 15%

6.36 34 2007

54 344
849%
534%

9.35% 2007
3.96 2.57
6.5 2007 3.96
60 40

2007 6.5
54
830 540.065830
2007
726-855
830

2007 3.96 2.57


3.96 6.5
60 3.960.06560
2007
4564

54

1998 0.41 2007


2.58
10.38 24% 38%

1998 1.54 2008


3.39 8.48
2008 40% 61%

1998 1.28
2007 3.31
10.15 2008 32%
49%
1972 2500 2007
8200
328%

55
1987 6.50
0.70 0.46

10%

10.7%
10% 1987 10
10%

1987 10%
2007 4.35 2.82
2007
66% 43%

6.5 66% 2007 1987


7%1987

17% 17% 6.5


1.10 1.10
1987 P/E 14 15.40
1987 6.5
20 15.40
2007
9.35% 3.96
2.57 6.50
3.96 60%
40%
2007 45-64
3.96 2.57
2007 6.5%
3.96 60 $3.960.065=$60

2007 45-64
64
12.11%
12.11%
12.11%

12.11%
640

56

10
20 80 6.50
0.46 7%
2007 2.57
6.50 2.57
39.9% 21
2.2% 2007
12%$2.57$21=12%
39.9%

58
58

360

20 1000
500 2%
2% 500 20
740 8%
500 20 2300

40

()

4208

2220 1380

33517

2260 5535

5919

133

258

12005
13225

/ /
8493

4246

7863

7777

2675

3277

1890

0 0

3133

43059

21525

880

7378

36235

23375

626

21744

43269



28000

10190

69787

260

0

108242

22468
5758
32919
920
258

62323

/ /
40012

736

333

43778
204623

5076


220852
150

880

7378

8235

414

133277
5890
0
3133


16229

220582

28857
10406
18451

10200
0
1107
7144
456
1275
50
7913
2769
5144

172455
142587
29868

20170
5020
6800
2122

10200
402
35
11955
0
11955

AAA AAA rating

AAA

:
accounts receivable

accumulated depreciation :

amortization

asset

balance sheet)

bond

book value

capital expenditure

cash flow

common stock

(competitive
advantage)

cost of goods sold

current asset

current liabilities

current radio

depreciation

durable competitive advantage

EBITDA

financial statement

goodwill

gross margin

gross profit

income statement
5~10

intangible assets

interest expense

inventory

leverage

liabilities

long-term debt

mediocre business

net income

operating expenses

operating profit

outstanding shares

preferred stock

prepaid expense

research and development expense

retained earnings

return on equity

revenues

SGA

SGA

shareholders equity

treasury shares/treasury stock

undervalued company

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