Professional Documents
Culture Documents
cell phone)
Methodology The Fox News Poll is conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). The poll is based on live telephone interviews with a national sample of 925 registered voters, and was conducted September 25-27, 2011 in the evenings. Landline and cell phone telephone numbers were randomly selected for inclusion in the survey using a probability proportionate to size method, which means that phone numbers for each state are proportional to the number of voters in each state. Results based on the full sample have a margin of error of 3% Results among subgroups have larger sampling errors, including: Democrats (n = 382) 5% Republicans (n = 338) 5.5% Independents (n = 189) 7% GOP Primary Voters (n = 363) 5% Dem Primary Voters (n = 356) 5% Results from Fox News polls before February 2011 were conducted by Opinion Dynamics Corp.
5.
Right now, how interested are you in the 2012 presidential election? Are you: Extremely interested 32% 60% 56% 56% 54% 50% 43% 35% 35% 34% 36% 30% 27% Very interested 33 30 29 32 32 35 38 39 38 40 40 37 35 Somewhat interested 27 8 12 11 12 12 15 20 19 20 20 26 29 Not at all interested 7 2 3 1 2 2 4 5 8 5 4 6 8 (Dont know) 1 1 1 1 1
25-27 Sep 11 PAST TREND 1-2 Nov 08 28-29 Oct 08 20-21 Oct 08 8-9 Oct 08 22-23 Sep 08 8-9 Sep 08 19-20 Aug 08 17-18 Jun 08 18-19 Mar 08 30-31 Jan 08 23-24 Oct 07 15-16 May 07 6.
In the presidential primary election or caucus in your state next year, are you more likely to vote in the Democratic or Republican primary for president, or are you unlikely to participate in either? Democratic Primary 38% Republican Primary 39 Neither 15 (Other/Dont know) 8
If the presidential election were held today (RANDOMIZE Q7 and 8) 7. How would you vote if the candidates were: (ROTATE NAMES) Democrat Barack Obama 45% 47% 48% 48% 41% 47%
25-27 Sep 11 17-19 Jul 11 5-7 Jun 11 7-9 Feb 11 28-29 Sep 10 12-13 Jan 10
(Other) 3 1 1 2 7 5
(Wouldnt vote) 4 3 3 3 2 3
(Dont know) 6 8 7 5 11 10
For reference: Thinking ahead to the next presidential election, if the 2008 general election were held today and the candidates were Democrat [NAME] and Republican [NAME], for whom would you vote? (ROTATE CHOICES) Democrat Republican (Other/dont Barack Mitt Romney know) Obama 30-31 Jan 08 51% 33 16 8. How would you vote if the candidates were: (ROTATE NAMES) Democrat Republican Barack Rick Perry Obama 25-27 Sep 11 47% 39 17-19 Jul 11 47% 37
(Other) 2 1
(Wouldnt vote) 4 3
(Dont know) 7 11
9.
Just your best guess -- as of today, do you think Barack Obama will be re-elected president in 2012, or not? Yes 40% 57% 29% 44% No 50 36 64 46 (Dont know) 10 8 7 9
(REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS ONLY) 10. Im going to read a list of the announced candidates for the 2012 Republican nomination. Please tell me which one you would like to see as the Republican presidential nominee. (RANDOMIZE LIST) 25-27 Sep 11 (N = 363) 23% 19 17 11 6 4 3 3 N/A N/A 2 5 7 29-31 Aug 11 (N = 341) 22% 29 6 3 8 1 8 4 1 N/A 2 6 10 7-9 Aug 11 (N = 319) 26% N/A 9 9 10 2 13 4 1 N/A 1 4 4 8 9 17-19 Jul 11 (N = 323) 26% N/A 9 9 10 2 15 4 1 N/A 3 2 7 13
Mitt Romney Rick Perry Herman Cain Newt Gingrich Ron Paul Jon Huntsman Michele Bachmann Rick Santorum Gary Johnson Buddy Roemer Fred Karger Thaddeus McCotter Tim Pawlenty (Someone else) (Too soon to say) (Don't know)
11.
Which one of the Republican presidential candidates do you have the most in common with? (DO NOT READ LIST UNLESS ASKED TO DO SO.) Rick Perry Herman Cain Mitt Romney Michele Bachmann Newt Gingrich Ron Paul Jon Huntsman Rick Santorum Gary Johnson Fred Karger Buddy Roemer (Someone else) (Too soon to say) (Dont know) 17% 14 12 10 7 6 2 2 1 6 22
(DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS ONLY) 12. Would you like to see Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton as the Democratic presidential nominee in 2012? (N = 356) Obama 66% Clinton 27 (Other) 3 (Dont know) 3
(RESUME ALL) 13. How impressed are you with the overall field of Republican candidates challenging Barack Obama in the 2012 presidential election? Somewhat Not very Not at all Very impressed impressed impressed impressed 25-27 Sep 11 7% 31 28 30 3-5 April 11* 5% 26 27 38 *Wording: candidates who have so far expressed interest in challenging (Dont know) 4 5
Questions 14 - 19 and 22 released separately 20. Some Republicans are encouraging New Jersey Governor Chris Christie to run for president because they see him as a strong leader and a straight talker. Do you think Chris Christie should run for president, or not? Yes 32% No 39 (Dont know) 28 If a candidate receives the endorsement of Donald Trump, would that make you more or less likely to vote for that candidate, or would it not make a difference to your vote? More likely 6% Less likely 31 No difference 62 (Dont know) 2 Do you think Barack Obamas political strategy for re-election is to bring people together with a hopeful message or drive people apart with a partisan message? Bring people together 56% Drive people apart 32 (Mixed) 4 (Dont know) 8
21.
23.
5. Right now, how interested are you in the 2012 presidential election? Are you: Tea Party 53% 34% 10% 3% 87% 13% Nonwhite 34% 29% 32% 6% 62% 38% College Degree 38% 34% 22% 6% *% 72% 28% No College 26% 33% 32% 8% *% 59% 40%
Extremely interested Very interested Somewhat interested Not at all interested (Don't know) INTERESTED NOT INTERESTED
Extremely interested Very interested Somewhat interested Not at all interested (Don't know) INTERESTED NOT INTERESTED
6. In the presidential primary election or caucus in your state next year, are you more likely to vote in the Democratic or Republican primary for president, or are you unlikely to participate in either? Tea Party 10% 80% 5% 4% Nonwhite 62% 19% 12% 6% College Degree 37% 40% 16% 7% No College 39% 39% 14% 8%
Dem 82% 5% 9% 4%
Rep 2% 86% 7% 4%
7. If the presidential election were held today, how would you vote if the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney? Tea Party 9% 80% 3% 5% 3% Nonwhite 71% 17% 2% 4% 5% College Degree 48% 42% 2% 4% 5% No College 43% 42% 3% 5% 7%
Democrat Barack Obama Republican Mitt Romney (Other) (Wouldn't vote) (Don't know)
Dem 85% 9% 2% 2% 3%
Rep 8% 83% 3% 2% 5%
Democrat Barack Obama Republican Mitt Romney (Other) (Wouldn't vote) (Don't know)
8. If the presidential election were held today, how would you vote if the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick Perry? Tea Party 11% 84% 1% 1% 2% Nonwhite 73% 17% 2% 4% 4% College Degree 50% 39% 2% 4% 6% No College 45% 40% 2% 5% 8%
Democrat Barack Obama Republican Rick Perry (Other) (Wouldn't vote) (Don't know)
Dem 84% 9% 2% 2% 4%
Democrat Barack Obama Republican Rick Perry (Other) (Wouldn't vote) (Don't know)
9. Just your best guess -- as of today, do you think Barack Obama will be re-elected president in 2012, or not? Tea Party 24% 70% 6% Nonwhite 53% 33% 14% College Degree 45% 46% 9% No College 34% 55% 11%
13. How impressed are you with the overall field of Republican candidates challenging Barack Obama in the 2012 presidential election? Tea Party 17% 55% 18% 8% 1% 73% 26% Nonwhite 5% 24% 29% 39% 3% 29% 68% College Degree 6% 26% 28% 35% 4% 32% 64% No College 8% 37% 27% 24% 4% 45% 51%
Very impressed Somewhat impressed Not very impressed Not at all impressed (Don't know) IMPRESSED NOT IMPRESSED
Very impressed Somewhat impressed Not very impressed Not at all impressed (Don't know) IMPRESSED NOT IMPRESSED
20. Some Republicans are encouraging New Jersey Governor Chris Christie to run for president because they see him as a strong leader and a straight talker. Do you think Chris Christie should run for president, or not? Tea Party 43% 39% 19% Nonwhite 26% 51% 23% College Degree 31% 40% 29% No College 34% 39% 27%
21. If a candidate receives the endorsement of Donald Trump, would that make you more or less likely to vote for that candidate, or would it not make a difference to your vote? Tea Party 11% 12% 76% 2% Nonwhite 3% 30% 63% 3% College Degree 6% 31% 63% 1% No College 6% 30% 61% 3%
23. Do you think Barack Obama's political strategy for re-election is to bring people together with a hopeful message or drive people apart with a partisan message? Tea Party 23% 68% 1% 8% Nonwhite 76% 15% 3% 6% College Degree 57% 31% 4% 8% No College 55% 32% 4% 8%
Dem 82% 9% 3% 7%