ENVIRONMENT ASSESSMENT TECHNICAL REPORTS

______________________________________
LAND COVER ASSESSMENT AND MONITORING

Pakistan
Volume 10-A

UNEP/EAP.TR/95-06 DECEMBER 1998

Mountain Environment and Natural Resources Information System International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) UNEP Environment Assessment Programme forAsia and the Pacific, Bangkok

LAND COVER ASSESSMENT AND MONITORING

Pakistan

Volume 10-A

Mountain Environment and Natural Resources Information System International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD)

UNEP Environment Assessment Programme for Asia and the Pacific, Bangkok

Copyright United Nations Environment Programme 1998

ISBN : 92-807-1489-9

This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part and in any form for educational or non-profit purposes without special permission from the copyright holder, provided acknowledgment of the source is made. UNEP would appreciate receiving a copy of any publication that uses this publication as a source. No use of this publication may be made for resale or for any other commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission in writing from UNEP.

Disclaimer The contents of this volume do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of UNEP. The designations employed and the presentations do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of UNEP concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or its authority, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

FRONT COVER: NOAA AVHRR Mosaic of Pakistan in False Color Composite

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

As emphasized in Agenda 21, Chapter 40 of the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development dated 14 June 1992, in a broad sense everyone is a user and provider of information in pursuing sustainable development. While considerable data already exist, more and different types of data need to be collected at the local, provincial, national and international level, indicating the status and trends of the planet's ecosystem, natural resources, pollution and socio-economic variables. The availability, quality, coherence, standardization and accessibility of data in the developing countries have been increasing with the improvement in the capacities and willingness to make informed decisions concerning environment and development. UNEP's EAP-AP programs are taking a proactive role in improving the environmental capacities of countries in the Asia Pacific region. This project is directed in providing information about land cover at a regional scale for selected countries in the Asian region. The investigation of the NOAA AVHRR satellite data is directed towards the detection and monitoring of ecologically important vegetation types. This similar activity also highlights the areas where there is a major change of land cover (i.e. "hot spots"), both in temporal and spatial aspects. The NOAA AVHRR data was found very useful for assessment and monitoring of land cover transformation at a macro scale. The harmonization of land cover categories was adopted in the interpretation of satellite data towards a more comprehensive regional resource assessment and information aggregation, an important decision input for the regional and national context. On a much wider scale, this kind of information could also be useful for global research and modelling, macro-economic studies, and assessment of the earth's state of environment. Major land cover types were enumerated as evergreen forest, deciduous forest, mangrove forest, scrubland, agricultural area, and water bodies. Site specific land categories like marshlands along the Mekong Delta in Vietnam and variations among agricultural practices in Bangladesh were separately noted. As shifting cultivation continues to play a dominant role in forest type conversion, the typical transformation from one type of vegetation to another is apparent, especially for the increasing proportion of open woodlands and dry deciduous group from the original evergreen or semi-evergreen type. Yet, the expansion of originally recognized scrubland that denotes mostly the presence of crop cultivation is the main feature of land degradation. Such landscape modifications as discerned in the time series analysis of AVHRR data subsequently lead to increased attention for a deeper investigation of the area. The use of high resolution satellite data supplemented by field information are of vital importance. This will serve as an early warning system towards preventive measures in areas exhibiting major land transformation or active deforestation. The availability of other thematic data such as elevation, climate and soil type was also realized in trying to assist in understanding the various interacting factors that affect land cover dynamics and clarify limitations realized in the error associated with the coarse spatial resolution data.

Up to date information on land cover variables and their nature of transformation offer a valuable guide in formulating appropriate policies and effective implementation of programs for several facets of resource management. The methodological guidelines and the country results generated under this study will dispense a worthwhile source of information in any future related-applications particularly in the Asian region. The availability of the AVHRR data in the South and Southeast Asian region was also evaluated to assess their applicability for similar or related efforts in the future. Moreover, a need for systematic data archiving policy that requires strengthening of the capabilities of a number of receiving stations in the Asian region has been noted. Likewise, compatible software to handle myriads of information about the complex ecosystem of the region is required to enhance data availability and accessibility. Finally, information and expertise dissemination through training are found essential in enhancing the sub-regional and national capability in perpetuating this valuable means of resource assessment and monitoring.

PREFACE In line with UNEPs new management by results policy, the restructured Division of Environmental Information and Assessment began to focus more on identifying the needs and capabilities of its users. One of its major components is intended to produce overviews of status and trends, assessment of interactions of international environment and development processes to support informed policy making at the international level. This involves development of assessment methodologies, models and appropriate tools to produce global, regional and sectoral assessment reports, early warnings, and contributing efforts to agreed targets for sustainability. In parallel, the development of this Land Cover Assessment and Monitoring project serves as the actualization of the above concept. This project primarily aims to determine the present status of land cover types and the nature of the land cover transformation for selected target countries in the Asian region at the scale of 1: 1 million on a regular basis, a vital information for the regional monitoring of the land cover dynamics. It also provides an opportunity to identify areas of major land cover transformation (hot spots) which will serve as an early warning system that will allow for a more detailed analysis, and a sound link of information in order to derive criteria for any future action plan governed by this valuable knowledge on land cover variables. Major land cover resources of Bangladesh, Cambodia, Iran, Lao P.D.R., Malaysia, Myanmar, Mongolia, Nepal, Pakistan, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam have been investigated under two time frames i.e. 1985-86 and 1992-93. The recognition of the potential and usefulness of the remotely sensed data, particularly NOAA AVHRR in assessing and monitoring the land cover dynamics, in conjunction with ancillary data within a GIS structure have been fully underscored. The basic principles, methodological background and overall summary behind this activity can be found in Volume 1-A while each countrys result appear in separate volumes (Vol. 2-A: Bangladesh, Vol. 3-A: Cambodia, Vol. 4-A: Lao P.D.R., Vol. 5A: Myanmar, Vol. 6-A: Nepal, Vol. 7-A: Vietnam, Vol. 8-A: Thailand, Vol. 9-A: Malaysia, 10-A: Pakistan, 11-A: Mongolia). Specific observations and conclusions have been presented on a country basis. Follow-up activities such as repeating the same exercise for the selected Asian countries in order to arrive at a more comprehensive land cover resource monitoring has been scheduled for the activities set for 1998 and beyond. Brunei, and Sri Lanka were added for a wider scope of assessment in the Asian region. They are expected to perform the same exercise for their respective country/region starting 1998 and later be part of the overall regional compilation of information. Methodological guidelines are already documented for future information dissemination such as training among the target countries. Pre-processing of the raw NOAA AVHRR data has been carried out by writing in-house programs. The possibilities of using the programs developed by EROS Data vi

Center in US and PCI Software Company in Canada is being explored for harmonized and standard pre-processing opportunities. In order to come up with more standard and harmonized land cover classification system for the region in the succeeding years, efforts will be placed to incorporate the general level land cover classification system recently agreed upon by the IGBP-DIS group. Cooperation and collaboration established with Land Cover Working Group of Asian Association of Remote Sensing (LCWG/AARS) and FAO regional office in Bangkok will definitely be an advantage in this regard. Our heartfelt thanks to the UNEP EAP.AP staff Dr. Chandra Giri and Mr. Dolagobinda Pradhan who have put in many hours of dedicated effort into the overall analysis of this project. Special thanks is also extended to Mr. Pradeep Mool of ICIMOD who analyzed the Pakistan data and prepared a draft report. This study has been completed in consultation and collaboration with various national and international agencies in Pakistan and abroad. Data sources such as the Digital Chart of the World (DCW) have contributed in building the geographical database for the countries in this study. Most recently a Memorandum of Understanding has been signed with the Land Cover Working Group of Asian Association of Remote Sensing (LCWG/AARS) regarding the exchange of data, outputs and experience. Surendra Shrestha Regional Coordinator UNEP Environment Assessment Programme for Asia and the Pacific December 1998

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CONTENTS

1.0

INTRODUCTION 1.1 General 1.2 Pakistan: Study Area 1.2.1 Location and Physical Characteristics 1.2.2 Present State of Land Cover 1.2.3 Areas of Major Land Cover Transformation (Hot Spots) 1.2.4 Need for Monitoring 1.3 NOAA Satellite Series 1.4 NOAA AVHRR 1.5 Methods Used STUDY AREA 2.1 Physiography 2.2 Climate 2.2.1 Temperature 2.2.2 Analysis of Temperate Regimes 2.2.3 Rainfall 2.2.4 Analysis of Precipitation Regimes 2.3 Soils 2.3.1 Parent Material 2.3.2 Soil Classification 2.4 Population 2.5 Forests and Land Cover 2.6 Protected Areas 2.7 Agriculture 2.7.1 Crop Calendar 2.8 National Energy Consumption RESULTS 3.1 Land Cover Assessment: 1992-1993 3.1.1 Why NOAA-AVHRR Data? 3.2 Spectral Characterization and Land Cover Mapping 3.2.1 Classification Scheme 3.2.2 Land Use Distribution Assessment 3.3 Natural Vegetation: A Comparison CONCLUSIONS

1 1 1 1 2 3 4 4 5 14 15 15 19 19 20 20 23 24 24 24 28 28 30 31 32 34 35 35 35 35 35 36 38 38

2.0

3.0

4.0

REFERENCES

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LIST OF MAPS

Map 1 Map 2 Map 3 Map 4 Map 5 Map 6 Map 7 Map 8 Map 9 Map 10 Map 11 Map 12 Map 13 Map 14 Map 15

Channel 1 Channel 2 Channel 3 Channel 4 Normalized Difference Vegetation Index False Color Composite (R2 : G1 : B1) False Color Composite (R1 : G2 : B1) Vegetative Cover of Pakistan Highlands and the Indus Plains of Pakistan Maximum Temperature Regime of Pakistan Minimum Temperature Regime of Pakistan Precipitation Regime of Pakistan Soil Types of Pakistan Landuse Categories Land Cover

6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 18 21 22 25 26 33 37

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LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Table 2. Table 3. Table 4. Table 5 Table 6. Table 7. Table 8. Table 9. Table 10. Table 11. Table 12. Table 13. AVHRR spectral ranges, their combinations and applications Maximum and Minimum Temperatures (oC) Mean Annual Rainfall (mm) Soil Types of Pakistan Population of Pakistan (millions) Forest Areas and Rangelands Protected Areas of Pakistan Land use Pattern of Pakistan (million ha) Land use Categories of Pakistan (000 ha) Area and Production of Winter and Summer Crops National Energy Consumption by Source (000 TOE) Landuse Categories of Pakistan (000 ha) Natural Vegetation of Pakistan; a Comparison 14 20 23 27 28 30 30 31 32 32 34 36 38

ABBREVIATIONS AVHRR EDC FCC GDP GIS GJ GRID GTZ ha HRPT ICIMOD IUCN LAC LANDSAT LANDSAT TM LST masl NDVI MENRIS NOAA NOAA/NESDIS NWFP PFI SPOT sq. km TOE UNCED UNDP UNEP/EAP.AP USAID WFP Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer EROS Data Center (USA) False Color Composite Gross Domestic Product Geographic Information Systems Giga Joules Global Resource Information Database Gesellscaft fuer Technische Zusammenarbeit (German Agency for Technical Cooperation) hectare High Resolution Picture Transmission International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development International Union for the Conservation of Nature Local Area Coverage US Earth Resource Satellite LANDSAT Thematic Mapper Local Solar Time meters above sea level Normalized Difference Vegetation Index Mountain Environment and Natural Resources Information Service National Oceanographic Atmospheric Administration NOAA/National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service North Western Frontier Province (of Pakistan) Pakistan Forest Institute (Peshawar) Systeme Pour lObservation de la Terre (French Earth Resource Satellite) square kilometre Ton of oil equivalents United Nations Conference on Environment and Development United Nations Development Programme United Nations Environmental Programme, Environment Assessment Programme for Asia and the Pacific United States Agency for International Development World Food Programme

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1.0 1.1

INTRODUCTION General

Pakistan being one of the eight member countries of the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), is actively engaged in its macro level land cover assessment in collaboration with UNEP Environment Assessment Programme for Asia and the Pacific (UNEP/EAP.AP). With the limited resources and time frame, however, it will not be possible to bring about a detailed micro-level assessment of the land cover. Still, it has been endeavored to add as many parameters to the report as possible. Some of the data included in the report is as old as 10 years. However, this data could be used as a baseline for a comprehensive report to be prepared in the future. That would greatly facilitate the comparison between the old and the new data and might be helpful in ascertaining the physical changes occurring particularly in the land use pattern and look for possible corrective measures if the situation so warranted. 1.2 Pakistan: Study Area

1.2.1 Location and Physical Characteristics Pakistan has a great variety of landscapes with a diversified relief. It has all the majestic high mountain ranges of the sub-Continental north: the Himalayas, the

China

Afghanistan Iran Pakistan

India

Arabian Sea

Fig. 1 Location Map of Pakistan

Karakorams and the Hindu Kush. The vast and rich irrigated plains of the Indus Basin covering vast tracts of the Panjab and Sindh, the stark deserts of Cholistan (Punjab!) and Thar (Sindh!), the inter-montane valleys of NWFP (North West Frontier Province) and the awe-inspiring rugged plateaus of Balochistan and the meeting point of the Himalayas, the Hindu Kush, and the Karakorams in the Northern areas are some of the most varied features of the countrys landscape. Geographically, Pakistan lies between 24o and 37o N latitude and 61o and 75o E longitude. It is bordered by China in the north, Arabian Sea in the south, Iran in the west, Afghanistan in the north-west and India in the east (Fig. 1). It is a federation of four provinces: NWFP, Panjab, Sindh and Balochistan with its capital at Islamabad. The land area of Pakistan is about 796,000 sq. km and an estimated population of 134 million (June 1996), having a population density of 168 persons per sq. km. Of the 79.6 million hectares land area, only about 22 million hectares (23%) are available for cultivation: 18 million ha irrigated and 4 million ha rain-fed. Forests, both natural and man-made, cover about 4% of its land area. 1.2.2 Present State of Land Cover The climate of Pakistan varies with altitude, which in turn affects the type of vegetation. It has some of the worlds highest cold areas that occur above 5,175 masl in the Himalayas and the hottest low areas in the Indus Plains with many intermediate ecological zones. Pakistan has nine major Ecological Zones with the main ecological determinants as Arid and Semi-Arid conditions. These conditions prevail over most part of the Indus Plains and the Balochistan Plateau. The Humid conditions exist over the hills and mountains in the north. In the Arid and Semi-Arid areas, most parts are bare of vegetation. At riverbanks and deltas, Riverain and Mangrove forests have emerged. On humid hills and mountains, pines and coniferous forests occur that change with altitude. The Dry sub-Tropical forests dominate up to an altitude of 1,000 masl, the Coniferous forests from 1,000 to 4,000 m. Above tree line, Dwarf Alpine forests followed by the Alpine Pastures occur up to snow line. Based on the above classification, the following seven forest types are recognized: 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) 7) Alpine Forests Coniferous Forests Sub-Tropical Forests Tropical Thorn Forests Irrigated Plantations (artificial!) Riverain Forests Mangrove/Coastal Forests

The Alpine Forests occur in the northern districts of Chitral, Swat, Dir and Kohistan. Because of long severe winters, dwarfed and stunted trees of Silver Fir (Abies webbiana), Juniper (Juniperus spp.) take place. 2

The Coniferous Forests occur from 1,000 to 4,000 m altitudes. Swat, Dir, Malakand, Mansehra and Abbottabad districts of NWFP, and Rawalpindi districts of the Panjab are the main areas covered with coniferous forests. Fir (Abies spp.) and Spruce (Picea smithiana) occupy the highest altitudes, Deodar (Cedrus deodara) and Blue Pine (Pinus wallichiana), the intermediate heights, and Chir Pine (Pinus roxburghii), the lower areas. The Coniferous forests also occur in Balochistan hills. Chilghoza Pine (Pinus gerardiana) and Juniper (Juniperous macropoda) are the two most common species of Balochistan. The sub-Tropical Dry Forests are found in the Attock, Rawalpindi, Jhelum and Gujrat districts of the Panjab, and in the Mansehra, Abbottabad, Mardan, Peshawar and Kohat districts of NWFP up to a height of 1,000 m. In Balochistan, they are confined to the Sulaiman mountains and other hilly areas. Dominant tree species are Phulai (Acacia modesta), Kau (Olea cuspidata) and Donoenia viscosa. The Tropical Thorn Forests are dominated by Xerophytic Scrubs. They are most widespread in the Panjab plains. They also occupy small areas in southern Sindh and western Balochistan. Common species are Acacia spp., Salvadora oleodes, Prosopis cineraria, Capparis aphylla, etc. The Irrigated Plantations were first developed in 1866 at Changa Manga (Panjab!). Today they occupy about 226,000 ha. Shisham (Dalbergia sissoo), Mulberry (Morus alba), Babul (Acacia nilotica), Eucalyptus and Populus spp. are the common tree species grown in the Irrigated Plantations. The Riverain Forests grow in narrow belts along the banks of Indus and its tributaries. They are more commonly found in Sindh and to some extent in the Panjab. Babul (Acacia nilotica), Shisham (Dalbergia sissoo) and Tamarax dioica are the most common species. Prosopis cineraria, Tamarax spp. and Populus euphratica are some other species found in these Forests. The Mangrove Forests are located in the Indus delta. However, lack of fresh water has resulted in their stunted growth. Avecennia officanilis is the main species. Ceriops and Rhizophoras are the other tree species but are fast disappearing because of human pressure. 1.2.3 Areas of Major land cover Transformations (Hot Spots) As a consequence to deforestation and changing land use patterns, the most critically affected ecosystems of Pakistan are: Juniper Forests of northern Balochistan, essentially categorized as Protected Forests, are heavily harvested for timber and fuelwood. The unrestricted grazing has further hampered the natural regeneration of trees. Indus River Zone is the other such area where ecological changes have drastically affected the Riverain Forests as also the Coastal Mangrove Forests. Large tracts of riverain forests have been cleared for agriculture. The river Indus has been dammed 3

and dyked and thus confined. The resulting drop in river level has left extensive areas of the riverain forests high and dry. As a further consequence of the construction of upstream dams (in the northern parts) and barrages in the plains of the Panjab and Sindh, there has been considerable drop in the Indus water. This has caused reduction of fresh water flow in the delta (at the confluence of the Arabian Sea) resulting in increased salinity which in turn has damaged the mangrove forests and thus eliminated several tree species. The uncontrolled cutting of trees for firewood and fodder needs has further accelerated the reduction and degradation of swamp forests. The Himalayan Temperate Forests are also under severe pressure from logging for timber and firewood and making clearings for agriculture; for the ever-increasing population pressure. 1.2.4 Need for Monitoring Satellite imageries at varying spectral, spatial, and temporal resolutions are useful to map natural vegetation types and to detect and delineate major changes over time. To carry out the inventory of the vast and scattered areas at macro scale, coarse spatial resolution scanners data with high temporal resolution are needed to reduce data volume and increase the probability of cloud-free data. The source of information used in this report is the digital data of NOAA AVHRR LAC format node having 1.1 kilometre spatial resolution acquired during ascending node (1330 LST). Pakistan is covered within one LAC format NOAA AVHRR imagery. 1.3 NOAA Satellite Series The NOAA satellite series commenced with TIROS-N (Television and InfraRed Observation Satellite) (launched in October 1978) and continued with NOAA-A (launched in June 1979 and renamed NOAA-6) to NOAA-J (launched in 30 December 1994 and renamed NOAA-14). At present two satellites, NOAA-12 and NOAA-14, are operational. NOAA satellite series are polar orbiting sunsynchronoumus satellites orbiting at a height of 830 - 870 km above the Earths surface. The data can be acquired twice daily, one in ascending mode and the other one in descending mode. The even numbered satellites have daylight (0730 LST) north-south equatorial crossing times and the odd-numbered satellites have nighttime (0230 LST) north-south equatorial crossing times. Alternatively, even numbered satellites have evening (1930 LST) south-north crossing times and odd numbered satellites have afternoon (1330 LST) south-north equatorial crossings. The crossing time of ascending and descending nodes of NOAA-12 is 1915 LST and 0715 LST respectively, and that of NOAA-14 is 1330 and 0130 LST respectively. The satellite has an orbital period of 102 minutes covering the Earths surface 14.1 times daily. The inclination of the satellite is 112 degree with the scanning angle of 99 degrees. The sensors onboard the NOAA Satellite series are AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer), TOVSSSU (TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder Microwave Sounding Unit), TOVS-MSU (TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder Stratospheric Sounding Unit), TOVS-HIRS/2 (TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder High resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder / 2), 4

SAR (Search and Rescue), SBUV/2 (Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet Radiometer/2), and ERB (Earth Radiation Budget Experiment). 1.4 NOAA AVHRR The AVHRR is a broad-band scanner that consists of four to five bands depending on the models of the sensor on board NOAA Satellites. AVHRR data are archived in three formats: HRPT (1.1 km spatial resolution at satellite nadir), LAC (1.1 km spatial resolution at satellite nadir), and GAC ( 4 km spatial resolution) formats. The AVHRR sensor provides global, pole to pole, data from all spectral channels. The swath width is 2399 km with 2048 pixels per scan line. The entire Earth can be covered in just 14.5 days. LAC data are also full resolution satellite images but are recorded on an onboard digital tape recorded for subsequent transmission. Though the spatial resolution of the AVHRR HRPT and LAC data is 1.1 km at satellite nadir, the resolution decreases with the increase in the view angle off-nadir. The maximum off-nadir resolution along track is 2.4 km and across track is 6.9 km. The advantage of the NOAA AVHRR LAC data are: synoptic coverage and hence low data volume (swath width 2700 km), high radiometric resolution (10 bit), relatively low cost (Free!, only handling cost), twice daily coverage and hence high possibilities of having cloud free data. The major disadvantages are: coarse spatial resolution (1.1 km at the nadir), preprocessing is time consuming, the methodology is not well developed, and LAC data has limited capability to record on-board. Designated originally for meteorological studies, AVHRR data can be used for various land applications, such as land cover assessment and monitoring. Due to the coarse spatial resolution (1 km), the pixel might represent different land cover types on the ground, but the spectral characteristic will be representation of the predominant cover type within that pixel. One should be aware that the minimum mapping unit for the NOAA AVHRR data is one square kilometer. That is, land cover features smaller than one square kilometer is not distinctive. Maps 1 to 8 have been added to explain AVHRR spectral ranges and their combinations and applications as listed in Table 1.

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Table 1. AVHRR spectral ranges, their combinations and applications Channel Spectru Applications Wave Map Number m Length No. Or Channel ( m)
combination
1 2 3 1 2 3 0.58 - 0.68 0.72 1.10 3.55 - 3.93 Reflected Visible Visible / Near Infrared Emitted Thermal Infra- Red / Reflected Solar InfraRed Thermal IR / Emmited Thermal Infra Red Thermal InfraRed / Emmited Thermal InfraRed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index False Color Composite Discriminating clouds, Daytime cloud and surface features mapping. Mapping land / water discrimination (water has lesser reflectance than other land uses), discriminating daytime cloud. Determining temperature of radiating surface, night cloud mapping

10.50 -11.50

Determining sea surface temperature, day/night cloud mapping

11.50 - 12.50

Determining sea surface temperature, soil moisture, day/night cloud mapping

NDVI = ((2-1)/(2+1))

NDVI

Vegetation Index is ratio or difference of reflectance value in the visible (Red) and Near Infra Red region of the spectrum

FCC = R2:G1:B1

FCC

FCC = R1:G2:B1

FCC

False Color Composite

Generated by compositing three multi-band images with the use of three primary colours: by assigning blue to Reflected Visible band, green to Reflected Visible, and red to Visible/Near-Infrared band. Green vegetations appears in different tones of red color. Snow & ice appears in white. Generated by compositing three multi-band images with the use of three primary colours: by assigning blue to Reflected Visible band, green to Visible/Near-Infrared band., and red to Reflected Visible. Green vegetations appears in different tones of green color.

To record spatial and spectral detail, however, high-resolution scanners data, such as SPOT XS and LANDSAT TM, with repeat cycles of about two weeks, are required. This will be done sometime in future when a detailed micro-level land use assessment will be carried out. 1.5 Methods Used Ten sets of the NOAA AVHRR data covering Pakistan were supplied by UNEP to ICIMOD for processing. The digtial data of NOAA AVHRR in LAC formats of the following dates were used in the present study: 14 Feb 1993, 20 Feb 1993, 28 Feb 1993, 17 March 1993, 23 Apr 1993, 1 Dec 1992, 14 Oct 1992, 23 Oct 1992, 13 Apr 1993. Preprocessing was carried out for all the datasets. The NOAA AVHRR data Pre-processing consists of data extraction and noise removal, radiometric calibration, geometric correction, and cloud masking procedures. AVHRR imagery of 14 October 1992 was used as the base image owing to its least cloud coverage. The data set are resampled to one square kilometer spatial resolution (i.e. one pixel represents one square kilometer on ground) after geometric correction. The country mask is generated using the country boundary available in the Digital Chart of the World (DCW) vector map. Spectral characteristics of the individual bands, NDVI, and color composites were studied for land cover mapping. Unsupervised digital land cover classification was performed using

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spectral signature definition by iterative clustering technique and maximum likelihood classification method. Interactive labeling of this signature information into major land cover categories requires substantial field information, forest seasonality/ phenology and ancillary data like topography and climate. Minor decision rules based on GIS overlay operations were performed for the finalization of the classification generalization. Accuracy assessment of the classification result is done using other available information.

2.0 2.1

STUDY AREA Physiography

The physical framework of Pakistan has been built by two major geomorphic processes that have produced two distinct physiographic entities: 1. The Western Highlands produced by the mountain building movement extended from the Makran Coast in the south to the Pamir Plateau in the extreme north. The Indus Plains resulting from the deposition of sediments from the Indus river and its tributaries.

2.

The Western Highlands cover most of Balochistan, NWFP, Northern Areas (Gilgit Agency) and parts of the Panjab. These can be further divided into five physiographic entities: Mountainous North Koh-e-Safaid and Waziristan Hills Sulaiman and Kirthar Mountains Balochistan Plateau Potowar Plateau and the Salt Ranges The Mountainous North covers the northern parts of Pakistan and comprises parallel mountain ranges intervened by narrow and deep river valleys. East of the Indus River, the mountain ranges in general run from east to west. To its west - from north to south - run the following important mountain ranges: The Himalayas The Karakorams The Hindu Kush The western most parts of the Himalayas fall in Pakistan. The sub-Himalayas - the southern most ranges - do not rise to great heights (600 - 1200 masl). The Lesser Himalayas lie to the north of the sub-Himalayas and rise to 1,800 - 4,600 masl. The Great Himalayas are located north of the Lesser Himalayas. They attain snowy heights (of more than 4,600 m).

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The Karakoram Ranges in the extreme north rise to an average height of 6,100 m. Mount Goodwin Austin (K-2) - the second highest peak in the world - is 8,610 m and located in the Karakorams. The Hindu Kush Mountains take off the western side of the Pamir Plateau that is located to the west of the Karakorams. These mountains take a southerly turn and rise to snowy heights. Some of the peaks rise to great heights like Noshaq (7,369 m), and Tirich Mir (7,690 m). The Koh-e-Safaid Ranges have an east-west trend and rise to an average height of 3,600 m. They are commonly covered with snow. Sikeram, the highest peak in Koh-e-Safaid Ranges rises to 4,760 m. Similarly, the elevation of Waziristan Hills ranges from 1,500 and 3,000 m. Some rivers flowing in the region have formed passes through which armies, peoples and cultures have moved. Among them, the Khyber Pass is the most important. It connects Peshawar in Pakistan to Kabul in Afghanistan. The Sulaiman-Kirthar Mountain Ranges extending from south of Gomal River, lie between Balochistan Plateau and the Indus Plains. On reaching the Murre-Bugti Hills, they turn northward and extend up to Quetta. Further south, they meet the Kirthar Mountains, which merge in to the Kohistan area of Sindh. The Sulaiman Mountains rise to an average height of 600 m that decreases southward. Takht-e-Sulaiman (3,487 m) and Takatu (3,470 m) are the highest peaks of the Sulaiman Ranges. The Balochistan Plateau is located west of the Sulaiman-Kirthar Mountains. Its western part is dominated by a number of sub-parallel ranges: the Makran Coast Range (600 m), and the Central Makran Range (900 - 1200 m). The highest peak Ras Koh, attains a height of 3010 m. The Potwar Plateau and the Salt Range region are located to the south of the mountainous north and lie between the Indus river on the west and the Jhelum river on the east. Its northern boundary is formed by the Kala Chitta Ranges and the Margalla Hills and the southern boundary by the Salt Ranges. The Kala Chitta Range rises to an average height of 450 - 900 m and extends for about 72 km. The main Potwar Plateau extends north of the Salt Range. It is an undulating area 300 - 600 m high. The Salt Ranges have a steep face towards the south and slope gently in to the Potwar Plateau in the north. They extend from Jhelum River up to Kalabagh where they cross the Indus river and enter the Bannu district and rise to an average height of 750 - 900 m. Sakesar Peak (1,527 m) is the highest point of the Salt Ranges. The Indus Plains have been formed by the alluvium laid down from the river Indus and its tributaries. The Indus is a mighty stream about 2,900 km long with catchment areas of about 963,500 sq. km. From its source it flows from east to west between the Karakorams and the Himalayas. It receives a number of tributaries from the west: Kabul river, Kurram, Tochi and the Gomal river. The left side tributaries are Jhelum, Ravi and Sutlej. They

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combine at Panjnad. The swelling of Indus and its tributaries during summer causes floods. Sometimes the rivers change their courses and spread fertile silts in some areas and coarse sands in others. All these processes have built the Indus plains and have made them agriculturally very important. The Indus Plains slope down from north to south. In the north, they rise to about 300 m and drop to about 75 m near Panjnad in the Panjab. From there, they slope gently and cascade in to the Arabian Sea. The Indus Plains can be divided into the following physiographic entities: Piedmont Plains Alluvial Terraces Active Flood Plains Deltaic Plains Rolling Sand Plains and Dunes Extensive Piedmont Plains have developed between the Indus river and the SulaimanKirthar mountains. They have been built by the alluvial fans along the Indus flowing eastward down the mountains. Most of the rivers rolling down the mountains become active only when rainfall takes place. They flow down the slopes swiftly. On reaching the foothills, they loose speed and drop part of their load within the streams, which split into a number of narrow channels. These channels become so overburdened (with sediment load) that they die before they reach the Indus towards which they flow. The gravel, sand and silt thus deposited, form the alluvial fans. The Piedmont plains, dominated by the alluvial fans, provide good soils and suitable topography for agriculture. Alluvial Terraces are depositional and are separated from the adjoining flood plains by the river-cut bluffs ranging in height from 5 to 15 m. The sediments of the terraces are called old alluvium and are composed of compact calcareous silty clays. Active Flood Plains are narrow strips of land along the Indus and its tributaries varying from 24 to 40 km in width. They are inundated almost every year, covered with rich alluvium and are suitable for agriculture. Old flood plains cover extensive areas between the active flood plains and the desert areas in the lower Indus Valley. The Deltaic Plains have in fact been built by the Indus as a large delta at its mouth. The apex of the delta is to the south of Thatta. The area bounded by the Kalri and Pinyari, the two distributaries of the Indus, is taken as the Indus Delta. The delta is scarred with old and present channels of the Indus. At the coast, barrier bars have developed. There are extensive mud flats sliced by the tidal channels. The inland limit of the mud flats is marked by a cliff. An extensive area in the south-west of Pakistan is covered with Rolling Sand Plains and Dunes. It is separated from the Indus valley by the dry channels of Ghaggar River. This extensive desert is called Cholistan in the Panjab and Thar in Sindh. It is not drained by any perennial stream. Therefore wind action is dominant in the formation of its topography. A vast expanse of sand plains with dunes dominates the scene. Agriculturally, it is a poor area. Map 9 presents the highlands of Pakistan and the Indus Plains.

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2.2

Climate

Depending on the topography, there is an extreme variation in the temperature of Pakistan. The country is essentially arid except for the southern slopes of the Himalayas and the submountainous tract where the annual rainfall varies between 760 and 1270 mm. This area has humid sub-Tropical climate. In the extreme north - because of great heights - Highland climate prevails. The controlling factors of the climate are: 1. The sub-Tropical location of Pakistan that tends to keep the temperature high, particularly in summer. The oceanic influence of the Arabian Sea that keeps down the temperature contrast between summer and winter at the coast. Higher altitudes in the west and north that keep the temperature down throughout the year. The Monsoon winds that bring rainfall in summer. The Western Depression originating from the Mediterranean region and entering Pakistan from the west that brings rainfall in winter. These cyclones make a long land journey and are thus robbed of most of the moisture by the time they reach Pakistan. A temperature inversion layer at a low elevation of about 1,500 m in the south during the summer, that does not allow the moisture-laden air to rise and condensation to take place.

2.

3.

4. 5.

6.

2.2.1 Temperature Pakistan can be divided into four broad temperature regions: 1. 2. 3. 4. Hot summer and mild winter: 32o C or more in summer and 10 to 21o C in winter. Warm summer and mild winter: 21 - 32oC in summer and 10 to 21oC in winter. Warm summer and cool winter: 21 - 32oC in summer and 0 - 10oC in winter. Mild summer and cool/cold winter: Summer temperature between 10 and 21oC and winter temperature between 0 and 10oC.

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Considering 10-year data (1974 - 1983), Table 2 contains the mean maximum and mean minimum temperatures at some selected meteorological centres: Table 2. Maximum and Minimum Temperatures (oC) Mean Maximum Station Mean Minimum 1. Quetta 24.3 7.4 2. Zhob 25.6 12.1 3. Khuzdar 28.1 14.2 4. Panjgoor 29.5 15.0 5. Dalbandin 31.0 13.5 6. Rawalpindi 28.4 14.1 7. Peshawar 29.7 15.8 8. Jhelum 31.2 13.4 9. Lahore 30.7 18.0 10. Sargodha 31.9 16.6 11. Faisalabad 30.8 16.2 12. D.I. Khan 31.3 16.8 13. Multan 33.0 18.1 14. 32.6 18.0 Bahawalpur 15. Jacobabad 33.6 20.1 16. Nawab 35.0 18.1 Shah 17. Hyderabad 34.4 21.3 18. Karachi 31.7 20.4 2.2.2 Analysis of Temperature Regimes Proper analysis for the calculation of temperature regimes could not be carried out because of the lack of data and the proper methodology: application of linear equation, the interpolation of the data on to the area by using raster GIS Module and a Digital Elevation Model (DEM). This is then followed by the removal of the influence of altitude on the data through the 0 masl altitude-equivalent temperature at each station. Based on the maximum and minimum temperatures, the Longitude and Latitude, Maps 10 and 11 have been created using Surfer and then transferring the image to ARC/INFO. Surfer is a grid-based contouring, 3-D surface plotting programme. It interpolates the irregularly-shaped XYZ data on to a regularly spaced grid and places it in a grid used to produce contour maps and surface plots. 2.2.3 Rainfall The major part of Pakistan experiences dry climate. Humid conditions prevail but over a small area in the north. The whole of Sindh, most of Balochistan, the major part of the Panjab and central parts of Northern Areas receive less than 250 mm of rainfall in a year. Northern Sindh, southern Panjab, north-western Balochistan and the central parts of Northern Areas receive less than 125 mm of rainfall. True humid conditions appear after the rainfall increases to 750 mm in plains and 625 mm in highlands.

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22

There are two sources of rainfall in Pakistan: the Monsoon and the Western Depression. The former takes place from July to September and the latter, December to March. Based on the average rainfall (in mm) between 1974 and 1983, Table 3 attempts to give a picture of the quantity of precipitation received in Pakistan. Table 3. Mean Annual Rainfall (mm) Station 1. Quetta 2. Sibi 3. Kalat 4. Chaghi 5. Zhob 6. Khuzdar 7. Panjgoor 8. Dalbandin 9. Rawalpindi 10. Peshawar 11. Kohat 12. Bannu 13. D.I. Khan 14. Jhelum 15. Sialkot 16. Sahiwal 17. Lahore 18. Sargodha 19. Faisalabad 20. Multan 21. Bahawalpur 22. Jacobabad 23. Nawab Shah 24. Rohri 25. Hyderabad 26. Karachi 2.2.4 Analysis of Precipitation Regimes Rainfall pattern and moisture regimes are subject to limitations: there is no clear altitudinal trend of precipitation. As an example, the Dry Temperate Zone in the north of Pakistan and to the west of Balochistan (bordering Afghanistan) are highlands and mountainous regions but do not receive even a fraction of the precipitation of what the Moist Temperate Zone or even the sub-Tropical areas receive. Further, a relationship needs to be built between the altitude, temperature, and the potential evaporation: the higher the altitude, the lower the temperature and hence the evaporation. Mean Annual Rainfall 378 217 274 148 297 272 128 125 1364 441 593 416 327 960 1186 109 729 526 485 225 266 135 162 174 193 265

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A simple methodology was therefore, applied by using the Mean Annual Rainfall data of the above stations and their geographic location. The software used was Surfer and later, ARC/INFO (Map 12). 2.3 Soils

Aridity prevailing over major part of Pakistan is the main climatic characteristic that affects its soils. This has resulted in limiting the soil moisture and scantiness of vegetative cover. Soils in Pakistan are rich in Basic but poor in Nitrogenous matter. 2.3.1 Parent Material The soils of Pakistan are derived from two types of parent materials: 1. 2. Alluvium, Loess and wind reworked sands. They are of mixed mineralogy. Residual material obtained from weathering of underlying rocks. Most of the rocks are Calcareous . In some areas, Granites have produced non-calcareous soil material. Very small quantities of salts are released from most of the rocks. The soils are therefore, essentially non-saline.

2.3.2 Soil Classification The soils of Pakistan have acquired distinct characteristics from the parent material and by their mode of formation. The river-laid sediments have developed into Alluvial Soils. The desert sands have turned into distinct soils. The hills, mountains and the plateaus have produced Residual Soils with patches of Alluvial, Loess and other soils. Accordingly, the soils of Pakistan can be classified into the following six types: Alluvial Soils of the Flood Plains Alluvial Soils of the Bar Uplands Soils of the Piedmont Plains Desert Soils Soils of Potwar Plateau Soils of Western Hills Based on these broad classes, Table 4 presents areas under different soil types in Pakistan. Map 13 presents the 26 broad Soil Types of Pakistan.

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26

Table 4. Soil Types of Pakistan Soil Type 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. Loamy and sandy stratified soils Loamy and clayey non-calcareous soils MOUNTAINS: Loamy shallow soils VALLEYS : Loamy non-calcareous soils Loamy sandy stratified soils Loamy clayey non-calcareous soils Loamy non-calcareous soils of alluvial/loess plains MOUNTAINS: Loamy and shallow soils VALLEYS : Laomy soils MOUNTAINS: Rock out-crops loamy and shallow soils VALLEYS : Loamy soils Loamy partly gravelly soils MOUNTAINS: Loamy shallow soils and rock out-crop VALLEYS : Loamy soils MOUNTAINS: Rock out-crop and loamy very shallow soils VALLEYS : Loamy soils MOUNTAINS:Rock outcrop, some loamy very shallow soilsVALLEYS : Mainly loamy soils Laomy sandy stratified soils Loamy clayey soils Loamy soils of old river terraces Laomy clayey mainly dense saline sodic soils Loamy and clayey partly slaine sodic soils Mainly loamy saline soils Silty and calyey saline soils Rolling to hilly sandy soils Mainly loamy partly gravelly soils Mainly loamy partly gravelly soils MOUNTAIND: Rocky out-crop with patchy soils VALLEYS : Mainly loamy partly gravelly soils Clayey and loamy severly slaine sodic soils Glaciers and snow caps Rivers TOTAL: Area (000 ha) 1.0 4.6 18.6 1.5 7.7 18.2 10.2 17.0 0.7 2.7 41.7 22.7 18.8 90.4 21.9 2.0 52.7 15.3 5.6 116.9 46.6 16.7 244.5 2.7 3.4 13.0 796.1 %tage 0.1 0.6 2.3 0.2 1.0 2.3 1.3 2.1 0.1 0.3 5.2 2.9 2.4 11.4 2.8 0.3 6.6 1.9 0.7 14.7 5.8 2.1 30.6 0.3 0.4 1.6 100.0

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2.4

Population

The population of Pakistan is growing at a very rapid rate. From 16.6 million in 1901, it increased to 84.3 million in 1981 (the last official census year): a five-fold increase in 80 years (Table 5). Table 5 reveals that the population of Pakistan was doubled from 1901 - 1951. It doubled again but during 1951 to 1972 thus resulting doubling time from 50 years to . Between 1972 and 1981, it increased by another 28.3%. With the officially projected growth rate of 3.1% per year (1981 onwards), the population of Pakistan will be more than 150 million by the turn of the century. Table 5 Population of Pakistan (millions) Year Population Inter-Censal Annual Growth Growth Rate Rate 1901 16.58 1911 19.38 16.9 1.57 1921 21.10 8.9 0.85 1931 23.54 11.6 1.11 1941 28.28 20.1 1.85 1947* 31.44 11.1 1.78 1951 33.74 7.3 1.78 1961 42.88 27.1 2.43 1972 65.31 52.3 3.90 1981 84.25 28.3 2.87 1996 133.18 58.1 3.10 2000 150.48 13.0 3.10 * Projected The alarming increase in the population from 1961 onwards can be attributed due mainly to the improved health conditions causing reduction in the infant mortality rate. 2.5 Forests and Land Cover

Forests have been central in human history in that they provide critical ecosystem services for climate, range and forage, wildlife habitat, biotic diversity, watershed protection, soil erosion control, etc. Humans have left an impressive mark on the world over the past several centuries. With the dramatic growth in population - from around 1 billion in 1800 to 5 billion todaypressure on the land has greatly increased. The need for greater food production has led to a massive increase in cropland. By early 1990s, almost 40 percent of earths land surface had been converted to croplands and permanent pastures. This conversion has occurred largely at the expense of forests.

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Of the four forest cover percentage groups (> 70%, 40-69%, 10-39%, 0-9%), Pakistan lies in the last category: 0-9%. Between 1981 and 1990, there had been a 4.3% decrease in forest areas of the Tropical Asia and Oceania, which Pakistan is a part of. During the same period, a 0.6% deforestation had been occurring each year. This is an alarming situation and needs to be stalled and then reversed, if possible. As recognition of the multiple values of forests has grown, so have concerns for their disappearance. In Pakistan, subtropical, temperate, riverain and mangrove forests are being lost because of questionable land use practices and the ever-increasing demand for timber and firewood. As a result, more responsible management approaches are being demanded that can accommodate complex economic and ecological needs. Designation of selected forestlands as national parks, area for agro-forestry practices and the development of plantations and afforestation practices are needs of the hour. Total Forest Area under the control of the Forest Departments (including Azad Kashmir and the Northern Areas) is 4.26 million hectares. The per capita forest area is only 0.037 ha compared to the world average of ONE ha. Main reason for this is that more than 70% land area of Pakistan is Arid and semi-Arid with annual rainfall of 250-500 mm: too low and erratic to sustain natural vegetation and to plan afforestation/regeneration programmes. Due to diverse ecological conditions, a variety of forest types exist in the country. There are natural forests growing in the moist-and-dry temperate zones and on the foothills. On the other extreme are the mangrove forests in the Indus Delta and the Arabian Sea. Irrigated plantations and to some extent, riverain forests are man-made. Of 4.26 million hectares (of forest area), only 1.12 million hectares (26.3%) produce timber and firewood: the rest are meant to protect the watershed areas and the erodable lands. Besides forests, the forest departments also control 6.4 million hectares of Rangelands. In fact, there are about 51.3 million hectares of Rangelands in Pakistan. These ranges provide sustenance to livestock population of about 98.6 millions. Being under incessant grazing pressure, these lands are producing hardly 10-15% of their actual potential. Over-grazing has intensified the problems of desertification resulting in accelerated soil erosion and degradation of plant communities. Table 6 presents the Forest Area by Types and Rangelands in Pakistan (including Azad Kashmir and the Northern Areas).

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Table 6. Forest Areas and Rangelands (in ha.) Forest Type Coniferous Irr. Plantations Riverain Forests Scrub Forests Coastal Forests Mazri Lands Linear Pltns. Private Pltns. Range Lands TOTAL: 2.6 NWFP 1105 115 24 2 159 150 1555 Panjab 29 142 51 340 4 2683 3249 Sindh 82 241 10 345 490 1168 Balochistan 131 5 163 787 1086 Northern Areas 285 2 658 2104 3049 Azad Kashmir 361 1 195 557 Total 1911 226 297 1287 345 24 6 159 6409 10664

Protected Areas

There are three types of areas that have been declared as Protected. National Parks Wildlife Sanctuaries Game Reserves The National Parks are only meant for recreational purposes where no other activity can take place. In Wildlife Sanctuaries, no hunting is allowed as they have the endangered wildlife species. As for the Game Reserves, hunting is allowed but only in certain months in a year and after a hunting permit has been obtained from the Wildlife Department. In Pakistan, there are 10 National Parks, 82 Wildlife Sanctuaries and 83 Game Reserves. They occupy a hefty 9% land area of Pakistan (Table 7). Table 7. Protected Areas of Pakistan Category 1. National Parks 2. Wildlife Sanctuaries 3. Game Reserves TOTAL: No. 10 82 83 Area (ha) 954,246 2,749,054 3,535,284 7,238,584 % of Land Area 1.2 3.4 4.4 9.0

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2.7 Agriculture Agriculture in Pakistan dates back to Neolithic times. It formed the base of the wellknown Indus Valley Civilization. Of late, its contribution to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has decreased from 52% in 1950-51 to just 24% in 1993-94. This is primarily because of higher growth rates registered by other sectors, particularly, the Manufacturing and Mining. Pakistan is a land of subsistence agriculture. The main emphasis is on the production of food crops that account for about 70% of the cropped area. Some cash crops (cotton, sugarcane, tobacco, etc.) are grown to meet other needs. About 23% of the total land area is cultivated. Still, the cropped area has increased from 14.6 million hectares in 1947-48 to about 22.15 million hectares in 1993-94: a hefty increase of about 52%. For the purpose of this study, the land area of Pakistan has been divided into FIVE major categories: Reported Area; Forest Area; Cropped Area, Cultivable Waste; Unreported Area. The data has a time interval of 46 years: sufficient to determine the changed landuse pattern, if any (Table 8). Table 8. Land use Pattern of Pakistan (million ha) Category Geographical Area Reported Area Forest Area Cropped Area Cultivable Waste Unreported Area 1947-48 79.61 47.43 2.84 14.60 11.50 32.18 1993-94 79.61 58.12 3.44 22.15 8.84 21.49 % Change 0.00 + 7.79 + 21.13 + 22.92 - 16.84 - 16.35

There has been an appreciable increase in Forest-and Cropped Areas. A lot of wasteland has been converted to productive uses. The un-Reported Area has consequently reduced. According to a map prepared by the Soil Survey of Pakistan (published in 1988), nine major land use classes have been identified. Table 9.

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Table 9. Land use Categories of Pakistan (000 ha) Landuse Type 1. Agriculture 2. Rangelands 3. Coniferous Forests 4. Irrigated Plantations 5. Scrub Forests 6. Riverain Forests 7. Wastelands including areas under Ice and Snow 8. Water Bodies (rivers only) 9. Others TOTAL: Area 21,733 25,475 1,353 80 796 239 28,501 1,274 159 79,610 %age 27.3 32.0 1.7 0.1 1.0 0.3 35.8 1.6 0.2 100.0

Map 14 presents the Land use Categories for the four provinces of Pakistan. Compared to the data provided by the Forest and Agriculture Departments, the data of Soil Survey Department (Table 9) differs in almost all the landuse categories. This warrants a serious re-classification of the present landuse status. 2.7.1 Crop Calendar Pakistan has two basic crop seasons: Winter Season and Summer Season. The Winter Season crops include Cotton, Rice, Sugarcane, Maize, Sugar Beet and Gram. The Summer crops include Wheat, Millet, Sorgham, Barley, Tobacco, and various Pulses. Table 10 presents the areas (in 000 ha) under different crops and their production (in 000 tonnes) in 1993-94. Table 10. Area and Production of Winter and Summer Crops Winter Crops Area Production 2,805 2,187 963 7 878 1,045 432 1,440 3,995 44,427 243 1,213 411 202 Summer Crops Area (ha.) Production (tonnes) 8,034 15,213 303 137 365 212 57 100 151 212

CROPS Cotton Rice Sugarcane Sugar Beet Maize Gram Pulses Wheat Millet Sorgham Tobacco Barley

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2.8

National Energy Consumption

Like many other developing countries, Pakistan has not yet fully harnessed its energy potential. As a consequence, its national energy consumption is very low. With an annual growth rate of 3.9%, the energy consumption increased from 19.5 million TOE in 1980-81 to 32.2 million TOE in 1993-94: a gross increase of about 65% and a yearly increase of more than 3.9% (Table 11). The per capita consumption - during the same period - went up from 10.47 GJ to 11.10 GJ. Table 11. National Energy Consumption by Source (000 TOE) Source Commercial: Oil Gas Coal Electricity non-Commercial Wood Agric. Residue TOTAL: 1980-81 10,868 4,267 3,200 691 2,710 8,660 4,939 3,721 19,528 Percent 55.6 21.8 16.4 3.5 13.9 44.4 25.3 19.1 100.0 1993-94 20,355 9,667 6,082 1,562 3,044 11,840 6,506 5,334 32,205 Percent 63.2 30.0 18.9 4.8 9.5 36.8 20.2 16.6 100.0

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3.0 3.1

RESULTS Land Cover Assessment: 1992-93

3.1.1 Why NOAA-AVHRR Data? A problem common in development planning is the inadequacy of information on the current landcover and available resource base. Without accurate information, policy makers often fail to make correct decisions. The frequent inadequacy of landcover information may be due to lack of trained personnel, equipment, or funds to collect information. Rapid changes in the resource base such as high rates of deforestation caused by increased population pressure may be one of the other reasons of deficient database. One tool in providing current reliable land cover data is Remote Sensing: the acquisition of information without direct contact. Although many types of remotely-sensed data of earths surface have been collected, NOAA AVHRR data have been used most frequently for the macro scale land cover assessments. This is because of its spectral bands that are well suited especially for the detection of important vegetative attributes. The contrast between the first two channels can be conveniently calculated to a measure of vegetation. Vegetation Index is one such ratio that has been shown to be highly correlated with vegetation parameters (plant species, leaf area, soil background reflectance and shadow) and hence, is of considerable value for vegetation discrimination.

3.2.

Spectral Characterization and Land Cover Mapping

3.2.1 Classification Scheme After interpreting the NOAA AVHRR data covering Pakistan, the following SIX major . Land cover categories were identified: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Snow and Ice Forests: Coniferous, Scrub, Mangrove, Riverain, Irrigated Plantations, Mazi lasnds Agricultural Lands Grazing/Rangelands (including degraded rangelands) Water Bodies Waste Lands (including deserts)

Snow and Ice areas are mostly confined to northern NWFP (Himalayas, Hindu Kush, Karakoram mountains), extreme southern NWFP (Waziristan hills), to some extent, northeastern Panjab, and the north-western hills of Balochistan (Koh-e-Sulaiman). Forest areas include dry/moist temperate forests, sub-tropical forests, foothill and plateau scrub forests, tropical thorn forests, irrigated plantations, riverain forests and the coastal

35

forests. Rangelands in fact, start from the alpine pastures in the extreme north (> 4,000 m) down to the Indus Plains (< 100 m) and Balochistan Plateaus. An extensive area in the south-east and south of Pakistan is covered with Rolling Sand Planes and Dunes. This desert is called Cholistan in the Panjab and becomes Thar(parkar) in Sindh. There was not much difficulty in separating most of the landcover features except for the Riverain Forests in the Panjab and Sindh, Mangrove Forests in Sindh and some degraded range/brushlands in north-western Balochistan (near the Pak-Afghan border). All these three categories of vegetation were giving the same reflectance values. Since there is an obvious degradation and reduction in the Riverain forests and Mangroves, it becomes all the more important to have a reasonably good estimate of the present state of affairs in these areas. 3.2.2 Land Use Distribution Assessment Six major biomass types encompassing a variety of eco-systems (alpine to tropical) may be recognized (from the NOAA Imagery) for Pakistan including Northern Areas. Broadly speaking, they are lands under agriculture, rangelands (perennial and seasonal), coniferousscrub-and other forest areas, riverain forests and finally, the mangrove forests). A variety of forests featuring varying degrees of disturbances, imbalances and degradations dominate most of the forest areas. Subsistence agriculture, fuelwood collection and grazing practices seem to be the dominant features of degradation (of natural vegetation) both quantitatively and qualitatively. Land area under snow and ice, water bodies and wastelands are some other features as derived from the NOAA imagery. Table 12. Table 12. Landuse Categories of Pakistan (000 ha) Land use Category 1. Snow and Ice 2. Agriculture 3. Rangelands 4. Rangelands; degraded 5. Coniferous, Scrub & other Forests 6. Riverain Forests including nfv* 7. Coastal Mangrove Forests 8. Water Bodies 9. Wastelands including Deserts TOTAL: * non-forest vegetation Area 8,563 25,184 8,867 7,843 2,730 1,801 556 93 26,394 82,031 % age 10.4 30.7 10.8 9.6 3.3 2.2 0.7 0.1 32.2 100.0

Map 15 presents all the nine major land cover categories of Pakistan.

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3.3

Natural Vegetation: a Comparison

Like many other countries, different figures are available in Pakistan for different land cover types occurring in the country. The following table (Table 12) has been added to show how the data obtained from the different sources in Pakistan differ from the NOAA classification. Table 13. Natural Vegetation of Pakistan; A Comparison Vegetation Type NOAA Soil Forest Agriculture AVHRR Depepartment Department Department (ha.) (ha.). (ha.) (ha.) 3,400 3,722 2,468 5,087 51,300 51,300 25,475 16,710

1. Forest areas 2. Rangelands

There is considerable difference in the areas under natural vegetation as reported by various agencies in the country and the areas derived from the NOAA imagery. This means that a massive reclassification needs to be carried out. This is particularly true for forest areas that are almost 37% less than what the satellite imagery reports. There is also a possibility that the imagery data is too much on the higher side. This might be another good reason for reclassification: both at departmental as also at the imagery level. 4.0 CONCLUSIONS

At the national scale, the study revealed the usefulness of NOAA AVHRR data in the assessment of landcover information. This information when compared to historic landcover data, became useful to detect changes in landuse pattern, such as increase in the extent of agricultural lands or decrease in forest areas. It can thus be used as a baseline data for future monitoring. As for the future monitoring of landcover, one would find cloud free NOAA AVHRR LAC data as far back as say, 1984-85 when NOAA-9 was launched. Latest data pertaining to say, 1996 would give access not only to the up-to-date landcover status, it will also help in ascertaining a trend of the changing landcover scenario over a fairly large period of time.

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REFERENCES The report is heavily based on the following reports. 1. Anon. 1993-94. Agricultural Statistics of Pakistan. 2. Anon. 1984. Pakistan Statistical Year Book. Federal Bureau of Statistics, Karachi, Pakistan. 3. Anon. 1990. Pakistan Demographic Survey. Federal Bureau of Statistics, Karachi, Pakistan. 4. Anon. 1993. Crops Area Production (by Districts); 1989-90 to 1991-92. Printing Corporation of Pakistan Press, Islamabad, Pakistan. 5. Anon. 1996. Economic Survey: 1995-96. Printing Corporation of Pakistan Press, Islamabad, Pakistan. 6. Anon. 1996. Banking on Biodiversity.ICIMOD - Nepal. 7. Anon. 1995. Statistical Yearbook for Asia and the Pacific. United Organization. Nations

8. Anon. 1995. Land Cover Assessment and Monitoring. Volume 1-A. UNEP Environment Assessment Programme for Asia and the Pacific, Bangkok. 9. Anon. World Resources. 1996. World Resources Institute, 1709, New York Ave., N.W., Washington DC, 20006, USA. 10. Haack, Barry; Richard English. 1996. National Landcover Mapping by Remote Sensing. 11. Khan F. Karim. 1991. A Geography of Pakistan. Oxford University Press, Karachi, Pakistan. 12. McKendry et all. 1992. Exploration in GIS Technology. Vol. 2. UNITAR European Office, Geneva, Switzerland. 13. Shaw Isobel. 1996. Odyssey Illustrated Guide to PAKISTAN. 14. Siddiqui, K.M. 1996. Wood Energy in the National Energy Perspective. In Proceedings of the National Training Workshop on Fuelwood Trade in Pakistan. Pakistan Forest Institute, Peshawar. 15. Sthapit, K.M. and R. Bhattarai. 1989. Agro-climatic Classification System for Nepal. HMGN/UNDP/FAO. 16. Trapp Hubert. 1995. Application of GIS for Planning Agricultural Development in Gorkha District. MENRIS/ICIMOD - Nepal.

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