Thayer Consultancy

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Background Briefing: Vietnam-United States 2nd Defence Policy Dialogue Carlyle A. Thayer September 26, 2011

[clientnamedeleted] Q1.DoyouknowanythingsabouttheVietnamUnitedStatesmilitarydialoguelast week?Whatdidthetwosidestalkabout? ANSWER:VietnamandtheUnitedStatesheldtheirsecondDefencePolicyDialogue onSeptember19inWashington.Thismeetingwasheldatdeputyministerlevel.The U.S. was represented by Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Robert Scher, Vietnam was represented by vice minister of national defence Lt. General Nguyen ChinVinh. Thetwosidestalkedaboutawidespectrumonregionalsecurityissuesandshared bothcommonanddifferingperceptions.Itwasagreedthatthedefencerelationship shouldturntomorepracticalactivities. TheU.S.sideagreedtocooperatefurthertoassistVietnamovercomethelegacyof the Vietnam War with further assistance in dealing with unexploded ordnance. VietnamreaffirmeditswillingnesstocooperateonidentifyingU.SMissinginAction. Thesearestaplesoftherelationship. The relationship was nudged forward by the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding. This merely codified the gradual evolution of defence ties. Five priorityareaswereidentified:maritimesecurity,searchandrescue,informationon peacekeeping, highlevel defence engagement, and humanitarian assistance and disasterrelief. ThisyearVietnamesegovernmentofficialsandmilitaryofficersflewouttovisitthe USSGeorgeWashingtonnuclearaircraftcarrierasittransitedininternationalwaters off the coast of southern Vietnam. This was a symbolic act to signal that Vietnam considers the United States an interested stakeholder in regional security. More significantly, Vietnam assisted in repairing the USNS Richard E. Byrd at its commercialshipyardinCamRanhBay.ThiswasthefirstvisitbyaU.S.navyshipto CamRanhBaysincetheVietnamWar.Anothersmallstepforwardwasthesigningof aMOUonmilitarymedicalcooperation. ThedevelopmentofU.S.Vietnamdefencerelations,includingtheestablishmentofa regular highlevel dialogue cannot be viewed in isolation. Vietnam and China recentlyconductedtheirannualdefenceandsecuritydialogue.ViceMinisterNguyen Chi Vinh represented Vietnam. More recently the head of the armys General

2 Political Department, General Ngo Xuan Lich visited Beijing. In sum, Vietnam is pushing forward defense cooperation with both China and the United States in a cautiousevolutionarymanner. Q2.DoyouthinkhumanrightissueswillimpedeUSVietnammilitaryrelations? ANSWER: The outgoing U.S. Ambassador to Vietnam made clear that the development of militarytomilitary ties would depend on an improvement in Vietnamshumanrightssituation.Nonethelessitappearsasifstrategiccalculations the rise of China may have trumped human rights concern. The U.S. Defense DepartmentisconsideringwhetherthereisanyflexibilityinU.S.lawtosellVietnam militarytechnology. In late 2009 Defence Minister General Phung Quang Thanh expressed general interestinpurchasingmilitaryequipmentandtechnologyfromtheU.S.Analystsare dividedonthisquestion.SomesayVietnam,whichhasexpressedinterestindefence equipment,isreallymotivatedtohavediscriminatoryrestrictionsremoved.Inother words, Vietnam mainly seeks equality of treatment. Others argue that Vietnam is seekingsparesofVietnameraequipmentandbeyondthatdefenceequipmentsuch ascoastalradarsandmaritimesurveillancecraft. Q3.WhatshouldVNandUSdotoovercomethishurdle? ANSWER: First, the U.S. side must determine what are the limits of present legislativerestrictionsonthesaleofmilitaryequipmentandtechnologytoVietnam. Vietnam needs to make its priorities clear. Both sides then must proceed in a practicalmannerinareaswheremilitarysalesarepossible. Second, the sale of lethal military equipment and more modern technology is unlikely as long as Vietnam continues its depressing record of jailing bloggers and democracy advocates for peacefully expressing their views. This situation has deterioratedsincetheeleventhnationalpartycongressandsincethereelectionof NguyenTanDungasprimeminister. Q4.WhatdoyouthinkofLTGENNguyenChiVinhsroleinthiskindofdialogue?Is heproChina?OrtheUS? ANSWER:Lt.GeneralNguyenChiVinhisloyaltoVietnamandaconsumatedefence diplomatwithwideexperienceininternationaldefencerelationspriortohiselection to the party Central Committee. He is an excellent interlocutor for Vietnam in its relationswiththemajorpower,includingChinaandtheUnitedStates.GeneralVinh is capable of standing firm and speaking frankly while delivering a nuanced expositionofVietnamsdefencepolicy.