THEREALDEALS

Ins&OutsofSingaporeRealEstate

Bestofbothworlds
A consortium led by Oxley Holdings came out tops in the tender exercise for the collective sale of Hong Leong GardenShoppingCentre.At$171m,thiswasthebiggestenblocsaleoftheyear.Thepricetagalsobeatthetopend of the indicative price range of $160170m given by marketing agent Credo Real Estate when it put up the developmentforsalelastmonth.ItisnosurprisethatOxleyHoldingsiskeentodevelopthesite,whichhasbeen zonedresidentialwithcommercialatfirststorey.ManyofitspastprojectsSuites@Katong,ParcSomme,Loft@ Rangoon, Viva Vista, RV Point, Vibes @ Kovan, Vibes @ East Coast and Oxley Edge have one thing in common, namely,retailunitsontheground/basementlevelsandresidentialunitsaboveground. HongLeongGardenShoppingCentreatWestCoastWaysitsonasprawlinglandwithanareaof150,816sqft.Itwas builtin1981with72apartmentsand66shopunits.ThetotalGFAis241,306sqft,excludingtheadjoiningstateland whichcouldbeamalgamatedforaprice.UsingoneofOxleyslatestprojects,VivaVista,asaguide,weexpectthe redevelopmentofHongLeongGardenShoppingCentretosee20%ofitsGFAallocatedtogroundlevelretailunits and the remaining 80% for residential units. We also expect the average per square foot selling price of its commercial units to be 70% higher than that of the residential units. We note that recent transactions in two adjacentprojects,CarabellebySimLianandHundredTreesbyCityDevelopments,weredoneat$1,0401,070psf. AssuminganASPof$1,100psffortheresidentialunitsand$1,870psf(70%premium)forthecommercialunits,the entireprojectcouldgenerateatotalrevenueof$303mforOxleyversustheestimateddevelopmentcostof$260m, or14%pretaxmargins.

HongLeongGardenShoppingCentre

Source:Googlemaps

Co.RegNo:198700034E MICA(P):090/11/2009

SEEAPPENDIXIFORIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS

HONGLEONGGARDEN
GFA Units Average unitsize Average selling price Retail 22,340(25%) 106 210 $2,475 (67%abovethat ofresidential)

TheRealDeals22September2011
Analyst:OOIYiTung6564335712ooiyitung@kimeng.com

OxleysprojectVivaVista
Residential 67,020(75%) 144 465 $1,485

ForthepurposeofestimatingtheredevelopmentprofitsofHongLeongGardenShoppingCentre,wehaveassumedalower20%allocationfor commercialasVivaVistaiszoneddifferentlyandhasanadditionalbasementlevelofretailunits. Source:URA,KimEng

TransactionpricesofprojectsnearHongLeongGardenShoppingCentre
1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 09Dec06
Source:URA

HundredTrees(CDL) Carabelle(SimLian)

25Sep07

11Jul08

27Apr09

11Feb10

28Nov10

14Sep11

TherearetworelativelynewresidentialprojectsnexttoHongLeongGardenShoppingCentre.Theyarethe 338unitCarabelle,developedbySimLian,andthe396unitHundredTreesbyCityDevelopmentsLimited. TheformerwascompletedinJuly2009,whileconstructionofthelatterstartedinJanuarylastyearandis slatedforcompletionbytheendofnextyear.Bothprojectsarefullysold.Inthesecondarymarket,recent transactionsshowthatunitsatCarabellearesellingat$1,040psfonaverage,whileunitsatHundredTrees are fetching around $1,070 psf. According to the latest rental data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority(URA),theunitsatCarabelleenjoyamedianrentalof$3.5psfpm,or4%rentalyield. LocationofHongLeongGardenShoppingCentre

Source:onemap.sg

MARKETSNAPSHOT

TheRealDeals22September2011
Analyst:OOIYiTung6564335712ooiyitung@kimeng.com

UpcomingVVIPLaunches ThreeBalmoral(District10)
A 40unit freehold development by Tong Eng locatedintheheartofthecity.Allunitsenjoy unobstructed panoramic view of the pristine GoodwoodHill.

PropertyPriceIndices
Index SRPIOverall(July11) RESIComposite(2Q11) URAPPI(2Q11) HDBResale(2Q11)

Change +0.2% 0.5 +2.0% +3.1%

Level 166.6 4.5 203.0 180.3

*Shhh... if you have not yet been invited, you are probablynotaVVIP.Waitforthepubliclaunch.

GovernmentLandSales(GLS)
RecentlyAwardedSites West Coast Link / West Coast Crescent (35.5k sqm, 360units)AwardedtoFarEastfor$175.8m,($460.6psf ppr) ChoaChuKangRoad/PhoenixRoad(32.3ksqm,335 units) Awarded to Far East and China Construction for $142.8m($410.5psfppr) Punggol Way / Punggol Field, EC (75.5k sqm, 720 units)AwardedtoFrasersCentrepointandKeongHong Constructionfor$219.5($270psfppr) Upper Serangoon Road / Pheng Geck Avenue (30.3k sqm, 330 units) Awarded to Tuan Sing for $185.2m ($567.3psfppr) Serangoon Garden Way (28.4k sqm, 80 units) AwardedtoCDL/HongLeongfor$105m($343.5psf) Punggol Field / Punggol Walk (48.8k sqm, 550 units) Awarded to Capital Development / ZACD for $169.6m ($323psfppr) Upper Serangoon Crescent / Upper Serangoon Road (86.2ksqm,860units)AwardedtoAllgreenfor$270.3m ($291.4psfppr) ConfirmedList(RecentlyOpenforTender) Jalan Loyang Besar / Pasir Ris Rise (36.3k sqm, 355 units)Tenderclosingon4October Pasir Ris Drive 3 / Pasir Ris Link, EC (39.0k sqm, 390 units)Tenderclosingon11October Flora Drive (41.9k sqm, 415 units) Tender closing on 19October YishunCentral7/CanberraDrive,EC(67.9ksqm,725 units)Tenderclosingon25October ReserveList(RecentlyOpenforTender) JalanJurongKechil(14.2ksqm,240units) BuangkokDr/SengkangCentral(55ksqm,495units) TanahMerahKechilRd(39.2ksqm,470units) StirlingRoadA(44.5ksqm,445units) StirlingRoadB(44.1sqm,445units) EliasRd/PasirRisDr3(32.7ksqm,295units) HillviewAve(35.4ksqm,405units) SengkangSquare(64.4ksqm,710units) Upper Serangoon View/ Upper Serangoon Road, EC (43.3ksqm,420units)
Source:HDB,URA

RecenttransactionsnearHongLeong GardenShoppingCentre
Project HundredTrees HundredTrees HundredTrees HundredTrees HundredTrees Carabelle Carabelle Carabelle Carabelle HundredTrees HundredTrees HundredTrees Carabelle Carabelle HundredTrees HundredTrees Carabelle Carabelle Carabelle Carabelle HundredTrees Carabelle HundredTrees
Source:URA

Tenure 956yr 956yr 956yr 956yr 956yr 956yr 956yr 956yr 956yr 956yr 956yr 956yr 956yr 956yr 956yr 956yr 956yr 956yr 956yr 956yr 956yr 956yr 956yr

Price ($psf) 977 1,077 1,114 1,071 1,120 968 1,048 1,110 1,045 1,325 1,130 1,139 886 1,026 1,049 1,118 1,056 980 918 968 1,014 1,000 1,297

Contract month Aug11 Aug11 Aug11 Jul11 Jul11 Jul11 Jun11 Jun11 Jun11 May11 May11 May11 May11 May11 Apr11 Apr11 Apr11 Mar11 Feb11 Jan11 Jan11 Jan11 Jan11

PropertyStocks
Name CapitaLand CityDev HoBee HPL KepLand SingLand UOL Wheelock WingTai Price 2.52 9.95 1.345 2.04 2.82 6.26 4.3 1.66 1.26 RNAV 3.97 13.27 2.76 4.41 5.25 10.42 N.A. N.A. 3.03 Disc/ Prem to RNAV 37% 25% 51% 54% 46% 40% N.A. N.A. 58% Disc/ Premto NTA/share* NTA/share 3.18 21% 7.18 39% 2.13 37% 2.63 22% 2.72 4% 10.57 41% 6.39 33% 2.32 28% 2.25 44%

N.A.=NoCoverage*Asatlatestreported

DEVELOPERSLANDBANK
Developer District 06 09 10 10 11 17 18 18 18 18 19 19 23 23 Sentosa 01 02 04 04 04 04 19 22 03 09 10 10 15 16 20 26 Sentosa Sentosa 02 16 02 05 09 12 12 21 09 10

TheRealDeals22September2011
Analyst:OOIYiTung6564335712ooiyitung@kimeng.com

CityDev

KepLand

CapitaLand

HoBee UOL Allgreen Wheelock

Landbank SouthBeach(BeachRoad) Futura(LeonieRoad) BoulevardHotel(CuscadenRoad) LuckyTower(GrangeRoad) BuckleyClassique(BuckleyRoad) HedgesPark(FloraRoad) NVResidences(PasirRis) PasirRisGrove,parcel3+stateland(PasirRis) PasirRisDrive8,parcels4+5(PasirRis) Tampines/UppChangiRdNorth H2OResidences(SengkangWestAve) BartleyRoadGLS(BartleyRoad) ChoaChukangGLS(EC)(ChoaChuKangDrive) SegarRoadGLS(EC)(SegarRoad) ResidencesatW(SentosaCove) TotalUnsoldUnits MarinaBaySuites(MarinaBay) Keppel&GETowerssite(TanjongPagar) ReflectionsatKeppelBay(KeppelBay) KeppelBayPlot3(KeppelBay) KeppelBayPlot4(KeppelBay) KeppelBayPlot5(KeppelBay) SengkangGLSsite(SengkangSquare) TheLakesideResidences(LakesideDrive) TotalUnsoldUnits TheInterlace(GillmanHeights) UrbanResort(CairnhillRd) Dleedon(FarrerRd) TheNassim(NassimRd) MarinePoint(MarineParade) BedokTownCentreSite(BedokCentral) BishanGLSsite(BishanStreet14) YioChuKangsite(YioChuKangRd) TotalUnsoldUnits SeascapeatSentosaCove(SentosaCove) PinnacleatSentosaCove(SentosaCove) TotalUnsoldUnits SpottiswoodeResidences(SpottiswoodePark) BedokReservoir(BedokReservoirRd) TotalUnsoldUnits Skysuites@Anson(EnggorStreet) ProjectatWestCoastRd(WestCoastRoad) RVResidences(RiverValley) RiverBay(MarThomaRd) Riviera38(MarThomaRd) TheCascadia(BukitTimahRoad) TotalUnsoldUnits ScottsSquare(ScottsRoad) Ardmore3(ArdmorePark) TotalUnsoldUnits

Tenure 99 Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold 99 99 99 99 Freehold 99 99 99 99 99

99 Freehold 99 99 99 99 99 99

99 Freehold 99 Freehold Freehold 99 99 Freehold

99 99

Freehold 99

99 Freehold 999 999 999 Freehold

Freehold Freehold

Unsold Units 119 122 203 178 64 212 56 752 1,517 605 190 560 490 602 207 5,876 82 620 330 307 234 94 622 45 2,334 372 41 1,324 55 150 469 650 140 3,201 113 357 470 38 640 678 209 80 248 147 102 35 821 93 84 177

DEVELOPERSLANDBANK(contd)
Developer Guocoland BtSembawang District 02 10 26 09 09 09 09 15 16 16 18 18 19 19 19 27 03 09 09 10 10 11 23 10 15 17 19 9 9 9 10 Sentosa

TheRealDeals22September2011
Analyst:OOIYiTung6564335712ooiyitung@kimeng.com

FrasersCentrepoint

WingTai

MCLLand

SCGlobal

Source:HDB,URA

Landbank Tenure TanjongPagarGLSwhitesite(PeckSeah/ChoonGuan) 99 LeedonResidence(LeedonHeights) 99 TheWaterline(YioChuKangRd) Freehold TotalUnsoldUnits TheVermontonCairnhill(CairnhillRd) Freehold PatersonSuites(PatersonRd) Freehold StThomasWalk(StThomasWalk) Freehold TotalUnsoldUnits StarHubCentre 99 FlamingoValley(SiglapRd) Freehold WaterfrontGold(BedokReservoirRd) 99 WaterfrontIsle(BedokReservoirRd) 99 Seastrand(PasirRisDrive3) 99 PasirRisGLSsite(FloraDrive) 99 BoathouseResidences(UpperSerangoonRoad) 99 EsparinaResidences(Sengkang) 99 PunggolGLSmixedsite(PunggolCentral) 99 EightCourtyards(YishunAve2) 99 TotalUnsoldUnits AscentiaSky(Redhill) 99 HELIOSResidence(CairnhillCircle) Freehold BelleVueResidences(OxleyWalk) Freehold LeNouvelArdmore(ArdmorePark) Freehold Anderson18(ArdmorePark) Freehold L'VIV(NewtonRd) Freehold ForesqueResidences(PetirRoad) 99 TotalUnsoldUnits NOBHill(EweBoonRd) Freehold CasaNassau(EastCoastRd) Freehold PasirRisGLSsite(JalanLoyangBesar) 99 Terrasse(HougangAve2) 99 TotalUnsoldUnits TheMarq(PatersonHill) Freehold Hilltops(CairnhillCircle) Freehold MartinNo.38(MartinRd) Freehold TheArdmore(ArdmoreRoad) Freehold SevenPalms(SentosaCove) 99 TotalUnsoldUnits GrandTotal

Unsold Units 500 261 44 805 76 25 221 322 240 239 24 110 462 380 493 7 685 187 2,806 59 69 38 43 157 42 355 763 70 65 580 230 945 38 210 28 50 32 358 19,556

SINGAPOREDISTRICTMAP

TheRealDeals22September2011
Analyst:OOIYiTung6564335712ooiyitung@kimeng.com

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 BoatQuay,Chinatown,HavelockRoad,MarinaSquare,RafflesPlace,SuntecCity AnsonRoad,Chinatown,NeilRoad,RafflesPlace,ShentonWay,TanjongPagar AlexandraRoad,TiongBahru,Queenstown Keppel,MountFaber,Sentosa,TelokBlangah BuonaVista,Dover,PasirPanjang,WestCoast CityHall,HighStreet,NorthBridgeRoad BeachRoad,BencoolenRoad,Bugis,Rochor LittleIndia,FarrerPark,SerangoonRoad Cairnhill,Killiney,LeonieHill,Orchard,Oxley Balmoral,BukitTimah,GrangeRoad,Holland,OrchardBoulevard,RiverValley,TanglinRoad Chancery,BukitTimah,DunearnRoad,Newton Balestier,Moulmein,Novena,ToaPayoh PotongPasir,Macpherson Eunos,Geylang,Kembangan,PayaLebar Katong,MarineParade,Siglap,TanjongRhu Bayshore,Bedok,ChaiChee Changi,Loyang,PasirRis PasirRis,Simei,Tampines Hougang,Punggol,Sengkang AngMoKio,Bishan,BraddellRoad,Thomson Clementi,UpperBukitTimah,HumeAvenue BoonLay,Jurong,Tuas BukitBatok,ChoaChuKang,HillviewAvenue,UpperBukitTimah Kranji,LimChuKang,SungeiGedong,Tengah Admiralty,Woodlands Tagore,YioChuKang Admiralty,Sembawang,Yishun Seletar,YioChuKang

Source:expats2singapore.com

TheRealDeals

22September2011

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