THEREALDEALS

Ins&OutsofSingaporeRealEstate

Theartofpricing
The pricing mechanism of todays projects is becoming more of an art than science. The average per square foot (psf)sellingpriceisanestimatethatisonlyusefulforanalyststogaugethedevelopersprofitabilityofaproject.The actualsellingpriceofeachunitvaries,andisreflectiveofitsfloorlevelandfacing.Tohighlightthewiderangeof pricesinaproject,wetakealookatWaterviewatBedokbySimLianGroup. BasedondatafromtheUrbanRedevelopmentAuthority(URA),thereare491caveatslodgedforWaterview.Ofthis, 135(27.5%)arefor786sqft,twobedroomunits.Thepricematrixformedfromgroupingthe135transactionsby floorlevelyieldsinterestingobservations.Asexpected,thehigherfloorunitsaremoreexpensive.Thoseonthe14th floorclearlycommandapremiumoverthelowerfloorunits.Theslope(theincreaseinpsfpriceperfloor)isabout $5psf($3,390),or0.6%relativetotheaveragesellingpriceof$893psfforsuchunits.Theunitnumber,whichis indicativeoftheunitsfacing,isanotherimportantfactor.Unit26commandsapremium,whereasUnit38hasthe leastsuperiorview.Anotchupinfacingsuperioritycostsabout$11.5psfmore($9,236),or1.5%relativetotheASP. ThedifferenceinthetwoextremeendsUnit26onthe14thfloorversusUnit38onthefirstflooris$144psf,or $113,184.A786sqfttwobedroomunitwassoldat$701,704onaverage. WaterviewatBedokpricematrix($psf)byfloorlevelfor2bedroomunits(786sqft)
1,000 UnitPrice$psf(Labeledwithunitnumber) 980 960 940 920 900 880 860 840 820 800 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 11 1 34 41 45 38 26 23 32 6 6 23 32 16 11 1 34 41 45 38 26 26 32 23 6 11 16 1 34 41 38 6 23 32 16 11 1 34 41 45 38 6 23 32 16 1 34 41 45 38 26 23 6 32 16 11 1 34 41 45 38 26 23 6 32 16 11 1 34 41 45 26 23 6 32 16 11 1 34 45 41 38 26 23 6 32 16 11 1 34 41 45 38 26 23 32 11 16 1 34 41 45 38 26 23 6 32 11 16 1 34 41 38

26 6 32 16 11 1 34 41 45 38

26 6 23 32 16 11 1 34 45 38 41

Source:URA

Co.RegNo:198700034E MICA(P):090/11/2009

SEEAPPENDIXIFORIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS

ARTOFPRICING
LocationofWaterviewatBedok

TheRealDeals15September2011
Analyst:OOIYiTung6564335712ooiyitung@kimeng.com

Units23,32 overlookthe quarry

Units38,41,45 faceARCat Tampines(EC)

Units26,34,16, 11,6overlook thepools.Unit 26hasthefull panoramicview.

Unit1facesthe neighbouring project

Source:Onemap.sg,SimLian

Unitsthatfetchthehighestpremiumfortheirsuperiorvieware26,23,6and32(inthatorder).Unit26has afullpanoramicviewofthepools,whileunit6enjoyshalfofit.Units23and32overlookthequarry.The leastpreferred view appears to be that looking across Tampines Avenue 1, where a new Executive Condominium,ARCatTampines,willbebuilt. Averagesellingpricebyfloorlevelandunitsize
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Average <80 866 865 877 873 881 886 893 903 904 908 911 917 926 893 <100 795 881 869 891 888 887 892 892 907 914 920 931 927 934 897 <110 786 881 880 878 882 886 887 875 902 906 912 920 925 930 899 <120 886 878 879 881 887 891 899 899 910 918 916 921 927 901 <140 819 898 892 901 900 906 911 918 867 928 933 938 943 948 901 <160 811 811 >300 520 520 Average 805 876 873 882 881 886 890 891 901 909 915 919 923 930 520

Source:URA

MARKETSNAPSHOT

TheRealDeals15September2011
Analyst:OOIYiTung6564335712ooiyitung@kimeng.com

UpcomingVVIPLaunches ThreeBalmoral(District10)
A 40unit freehold development by Tong Eng locatedintheheartofthecity.Allunitsenjoy unobstructed panoramic view of the pristine GoodwoodHill.

PropertyPriceIndices
Index SRPIOverall(July11) RESIComposite(2Q11) URAPPI(2Q11) HDBResale(2Q11)

Change +0.2% 0.5 +2.0% +3.1%

Level 166.6 4.5 203.0 180.3

*Shhh... if you have not yet been invited, you are probablynotaVVIP.Waitforthepubliclaunch.

GovernmentLandSales(GLS)
RecentlyAwardedSites West Coast Link / West Coast Crescent (35.5k sqm, 360units)AwardedtoFarEastfor$175.8m,($460.6psf ppr) ChoaChuKangRoad/PhoenixRoad(32.3ksqm,335 units) Awarded to Far East and China Construction for $142.8m($410.5psfppr) Punggol Way / Punggol Field, EC (75.5k sqm, 720 units)AwardedtoFrasersCentrepointandKeongHong Constructionfor$219.5($270psfppr) Upper Serangoon Road / Pheng Geck Avenue (30.3k sqm, 330 units) Awarded to Tuan Sing for $185.2m ($567.3psfppr) Serangoon Garden Way (28.4k sqm, 80 units) AwardedtoCDL/HongLeongfor$105m($343.5psf) Punggol Field / Punggol Walk (48.8k sqm, 550 units) Awarded to Capital Development / ZACD for $169.6m ($323psfppr) Upper Serangoon Crescent / Upper Serangoon Road (86.2k sqm, 860 units) Highest bid of$270.3m ($291.4 psfppr)fromAllgreen ConfirmedList(RecentlyOpenforTender) Jalan Loyang Besar / Pasir Ris Rise (36.3k sqm, 355 units)Tenderclosingon4October Pasir Ris Drive 3 / Pasir Ris Link, EC (39.0k sqm, 390 units)Tenderclosingon11October Flora Drive (41.9k sqm, 415 units) Tender closing on 19October YishunCentral7/CanberraDrive,EC(67.9ksqm,725 units)Tenderclosingon25October ReserveList(RecentlyOpenforTender) JalanJurongKechil(14.2ksqm,240units) BuangkokDr/SengkangCentral(55ksqm,495units) TanahMerahKechilRd(39.2ksqm,470units) StirlingRoadA(44.5ksqm,445units) StirlingRoadB(44.1sqm,445units) EliasRd/PasirRisDr3(32.7ksqm,295units) HillviewAve(35.4ksqm,405units) SengkangSquare(64.4ksqm,710units) Upper Serangoon View/ Upper Serangoon Road, EC (43.3ksqm,420units)
Source:HDB,URA

Recenttransactions
Project RegentHeights Rivergate ChilternPark TheAmbrosia CenturyMansions MoonstoneResidences CuscadenResidences TheBayshore DuchessCrest ParburyHill TheSail@MarinaBay TheBayshore PalmGardens CanaryVille Hillbrooks TheWarren OrchidParkCondo StFrancisCourt Maplewoods OleanasResidence BlossomView CentralGreenCondo ThePlaza Maysprings
Source:URA

Tenure 99yr FH 99yr FH FH FH FH 99yr 99yr FH 99yr 99yr 99yr FH FH 99yr 99yr 99yr FH FH FH 99yr 99yr 99yr

Price ($psf) 740 2,160 712 1,180 858 891 1,987 909 1,349 915 2,510 870 707 883 883 650 686 724 1,193 1,534 794 1,566 1,120 836

Planningarea BukitBatok SporeRiver Serangoon Bedok BukitBatok Kallang Orchard Bedok BukitTimah Bedok Downtown Bedok ChoaC.Kang Bedok BukitBatok ChoaC.Kang Yishun Kallang BukitTimah RiverValley Geylang BukitMerah Kallang BukitPanjang

PropertyStocks
Name CapitaLand CityDev HoBee HPL KepLand SingLand UOL Wheelock WingTai

Price 2.55 9.98 1.35 2.04 2.97 6.35 4.45 1.655 1.305

RNAV 3.97 13.27 2.76 4.41 5.25 10.42 N.A. N.A. 3.03

Disc/ Prem to RNAV 36% 25% 51% 54% 43% 39% N.A. N.A. 57%

Disc/ Premto NTA/share* NTA/share 3.18 20% 7.18 39% 2.13 37% 2.63 22% 2.72 9% 10.57 40% 6.39 30% 2.32 29% 2.25 42%

N.A.=NoCoverage*Asatlatestreported

DEVELOPERSLANDBANK
Developer District 06 09 10 10 11 17 18 18 18 18 19 19 23 23 Sentosa 01 02 04 04 04 04 19 22 03 09 10 10 15 16 20 26 Sentosa Sentosa 02 16 02 05 09 12 12 21 09 10

TheRealDeals15September2011
Analyst:OOIYiTung6564335712ooiyitung@kimeng.com

CityDev

KepLand

CapitaLand

HoBee UOL Allgreen Wheelock

Landbank SouthBeach(BeachRoad) Futura(LeonieRoad) BoulevardHotel(CuscadenRoad) LuckyTower(GrangeRoad) BuckleyClassique(BuckleyRoad) HedgesPark(FloraRoad) NVResidences(PasirRis) PasirRisGrove,parcel3+stateland(PasirRis) PasirRisDrive8,parcels4+5(PasirRis) Tampines/UppChangiRdNorth H2OResidences(SengkangWestAve) BartleyRoadGLS(BartleyRoad) ChoaChukangGLS(EC)(ChoaChuKangDrive) SegarRoadGLS(EC)(SegarRoad) ResidencesatW(SentosaCove) TotalUnsoldUnits MarinaBaySuites(MarinaBay) Keppel&GETowerssite(TanjongPagar) ReflectionsatKeppelBay(KeppelBay) KeppelBayPlot3(KeppelBay) KeppelBayPlot4(KeppelBay) KeppelBayPlot5(KeppelBay) SengkangGLSsite(SengkangSquare) TheLakesideResidences(LakesideDrive) TotalUnsoldUnits TheInterlace(GillmanHeights) UrbanResort(CairnhillRd) Dleedon(FarrerRd) TheNassim(NassimRd) MarinePoint(MarineParade) BedokTownCentreSite(BedokCentral) BishanGLSsite(BishanStreet14) YioChuKangsite(YioChuKangRd) TotalUnsoldUnits SeascapeatSentosaCove(SentosaCove) PinnacleatSentosaCove(SentosaCove) TotalUnsoldUnits SpottiswoodeResidences(SpottiswoodePark) BedokReservoir(BedokReservoirRd) TotalUnsoldUnits Skysuites@Anson(EnggorStreet) ProjectatWestCoastRd(WestCoastRoad) RVResidences(RiverValley) RiverBay(MarThomaRd) Riviera38(MarThomaRd) TheCascadia(BukitTimahRoad) TotalUnsoldUnits ScottsSquare(ScottsRoad) Ardmore3(ArdmorePark) TotalUnsoldUnits

Tenure 99 Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold 99 99 99 99 Freehold 99 99 99 99 99

99 Freehold 99 99 99 99 99 99

99 Freehold 99 Freehold Freehold 99 99 Freehold

99 99

Freehold 99

99 Freehold 999 999 999 Freehold

Freehold Freehold

Unsold Units 119 122 203 178 64 212 56 752 1,517 605 190 560 490 602 207 5,876 82 620 330 307 234 94 622 45 2,334 372 41 1,324 55 150 469 650 140 3,201 113 357 470 38 640 678 209 80 248 147 102 35 821 93 84 177

DEVELOPERSLANDBANK(contd)
Developer Guocoland BtSembawang District 02 10 26 09 09 09 09 15 16 16 18 18 19 19 19 27 03 09 09 10 10 11 23 10 15 17 19 9 9 9 10 Sentosa

TheRealDeals15September2011
Analyst:OOIYiTung6564335712ooiyitung@kimeng.com

FrasersCentrepoint

WingTai

MCLLand

SCGlobal

Source:HDB,URA

Landbank Tenure TanjongPagarGLSwhitesite(PeckSeah/ChoonGuan) 99 LeedonResidence(LeedonHeights) 99 TheWaterline(YioChuKangRd) Freehold TotalUnsoldUnits TheVermontonCairnhill(CairnhillRd) Freehold PatersonSuites(PatersonRd) Freehold StThomasWalk(StThomasWalk) Freehold TotalUnsoldUnits StarHubCentre 99 FlamingoValley(SiglapRd) Freehold WaterfrontGold(BedokReservoirRd) 99 WaterfrontIsle(BedokReservoirRd) 99 Seastrand(PasirRisDrive3) 99 PasirRisGLSsite(FloraDrive) 99 BoathouseResidences(UpperSerangoonRoad) 99 EsparinaResidences(Sengkang) 99 PunggolGLSmixedsite(PunggolCentral) 99 EightCourtyards(YishunAve2) 99 TotalUnsoldUnits AscentiaSky(Redhill) 99 HELIOSResidence(CairnhillCircle) Freehold BelleVueResidences(OxleyWalk) Freehold LeNouvelArdmore(ArdmorePark) Freehold Anderson18(ArdmorePark) Freehold L'VIV(NewtonRd) Freehold ForesqueResidences(PetirRoad) 99 TotalUnsoldUnits NOBHill(EweBoonRd) Freehold CasaNassau(EastCoastRd) Freehold PasirRisGLSsite(JalanLoyangBesar) 99 Terrasse(HougangAve2) 99 TotalUnsoldUnits TheMarq(PatersonHill) Freehold Hilltops(CairnhillCircle) Freehold MartinNo.38(MartinRd) Freehold TheArdmore(ArdmoreRoad) Freehold SevenPalms(SentosaCove) 99 TotalUnsoldUnits GrandTotal

Unsold Units 500 261 44 805 76 25 221 322 240 239 24 110 462 380 493 7 685 187 2,806 59 69 38 43 157 42 355 763 70 65 580 230 945 38 210 28 50 32 358 19,556

SINGAPOREDISTRICTMAP

TheRealDeals15September2011
Analyst:OOIYiTung6564335712ooiyitung@kimeng.com

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 BoatQuay,Chinatown,HavelockRoad,MarinaSquare,RafflesPlace,SuntecCity AnsonRoad,Chinatown,NeilRoad,RafflesPlace,ShentonWay,TanjongPagar AlexandraRoad,TiongBahru,Queenstown Keppel,MountFaber,Sentosa,TelokBlangah BuonaVista,Dover,PasirPanjang,WestCoast CityHall,HighStreet,NorthBridgeRoad BeachRoad,BencoolenRoad,Bugis,Rochor LittleIndia,FarrerPark,SerangoonRoad Cairnhill,Killiney,LeonieHill,Orchard,Oxley Balmoral,BukitTimah,GrangeRoad,Holland,OrchardBoulevard,RiverValley,TanglinRoad Chancery,BukitTimah,DunearnRoad,Newton Balestier,Moulmein,Novena,ToaPayoh PotongPasir,Macpherson Eunos,Geylang,Kembangan,PayaLebar Katong,MarineParade,Siglap,TanjongRhu Bayshore,Bedok,ChaiChee Changi,Loyang,PasirRis PasirRis,Simei,Tampines Hougang,Punggol,Sengkang AngMoKio,Bishan,BraddellRoad,Thomson Clementi,UpperBukitTimah,HumeAvenue BoonLay,Jurong,Tuas BukitBatok,ChoaChuKang,HillviewAvenue,UpperBukitTimah Kranji,LimChuKang,SungeiGedong,Tengah Admiralty,Woodlands Tagore,YioChuKang Admiralty,Sembawang,Yishun Seletar,YioChuKang

Source:expats2singapore.com

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15September2011

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