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3Q11
Emptying Construction Pipeline
In the third quarter of 2011, a total of 488,000 sf of class A office product delivered in the Baltimore office market. Fueled by anticipated government and government contractor demand, third quarter deliveries included: the 228,000-sf 7205 Windsor Boulevard, the 110,000-sf 430 National Business Parkway, the 75,000-sf 6210 Guardian Gateway and the 75,000-sf 6200 Guardian Gateway. The quarter deliveries boasted significant tenants such as Northrop Grumman and Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) at 7205 Windsor Boulevard, and Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) at 6210 Guardian Gateway. Located in close proximity to both the CMS and Social Security Administration (SSA) headquarters in Woodlawn, MD, Northrop Grumman leased 54,626 sf at 7205 Windsor Boulevard to service their CMS contract. Construction deliveries in Harford County continued to increase the submarkets overall vacancy rate, at 28.5%, as supply has increased 432,520 sf, or 48.9%, in 2011 and limited tenant activity has resulted in a 22 percentage point jump in its overall vacancy rate from the first quarter of 2011. A total of 113,637 sf of vacant space at an asking rental rate of $34.00 psf came onto the market with the deliveries of 6200 and 6210 Guardian Gateway. 6200 Guardian Gateway delivered completely vacant and 6210 Guardian Gateway delivered with an occupancy rate of 48.5% as SAIC leased 32,500 sf. Activity was also slow at other 2011 deliveries as the 128,120-sf 206 Research Boulevard sat completely vacant and the 125,000-sf 4696 Millennium Drive held 49,182 sf of vacant space in the third quarter.
Overview
Economic uncertainties lingered in the third quarter of 2011 as job creation numbers fell short of market expectations and government budgetary concerns further weakened consumer and investor confidence. Anticipated federal budget cuts were and remain a primary concern for states like Maryland, which depend on federal funding and the government contract industry. Although budgetary cuts are not expected to impact Maryland dramatically, due to the governments commitment to cyber security and health care, the states dependency on federal funding may limit its recovery efforts. The preliminary unemployment rate for Maryland in August 2011 was 7.3%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a 0.1 percentage point decrease from August 2010.
Outlook
Vacancy rates are expected to largely hold in the Baltimore office market at yearend 2011, with the exception of Harford County due to construction activity. The 95,200-sf 650 McHenry Row is anticipated to deliver completely vacant in the fourth quarter of 2011 as preleasing activity has been limited in the market. Construction activity will remain concentrated in Baltimores non-CBD submarkets as it will service activity near Fort Meade and Aberdeen Proving Ground (APG). Overall net absorption for Baltimores CBD in the fourth quarter is expected to be positive as Transamerica takes 140,526 sf at 100 Light Street. Asking rental rates will most likely remain flat as the market continues its recovery by year-end 2011.
Stats on the Go
3Q10
3Q11
12 month Forecast
3.0 2.5
18.0% 15.0% 12.0% 9.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2008 2009 2010 2011F 2012F
13.8%
14.6%
2.0 $24.14 $24.18 +0.2% psf/yr 2007 2008 2009 2010 YTD 2011 msf 1.5 1.0 2,046,914 1,770,883 -13.5% 0.5 0.0
Market/Submarket Statistics
Marke t / Submarke t
CBD M idto wn No rthwe s t No rthe a s t S o uthe a s t S o uthwe s t B a lt im o re C it y C o lum bia No rth C o lum bia S o uth To wn C e nte r Ellic o tt C ity B WI Ho wa rd C o unty H o wa rd C o u n t y Anna po lis R o ute 2 No rth R o ute 2 S o uth B WI/Anne Arunde l B WI/Linthic um I-97/C ra in Hwy A n n e A ru n d e l B a ltim o re C o unty Ea s t To ws o n R o ute 83 S o uth R o ute 83 No rth R e is te rs to wn R o a d C o rrido r Wo o dla wn/C a to ns ville B a lt im o re C o u n t y Ha rfo rd H a rf o rd N ON -C B D B A LT IM O R E T O T A L * R e nta l ra te s re fle c t a s king $ ps f/ye a r.
Inve ntory
13,381,776 1,592,922 911,610 77,016 4,496,353 1,743,662 2 2 ,2 0 3 ,3 3 9 1,167,713 7,086,842 2,078,844 206,770 643,685 11,18 3 ,8 5 4 2,308,268 202,611 261,913 4,564,117 2,628,627 290,988 10 ,2 5 6 ,5 2 4 868,351 3,674,204 1,846,429 3,870,364 4,422,650 3,055,760 17 ,7 3 7 ,7 5 8 1,316,717 1,3 16 ,7 17 4 9 ,3 16 ,4 16 6 2 ,6 9 8 ,19 2
O ve rall Wtd. Dire ct Wtd. Avg. Avg. All Classe s Class A Gross Gross Re ntal Re ntal Rate * Rate *
$ 20.80 $ 19.26 $ 22.74 N/A $ 31.38 $ 22.08 $ 2 2 .8 0 $ 22.00 $ 26.82 $ 23.91 $ 23.16 $ 24.21 $ 2 5 .3 0 $ 26.54 $ 15.52 $ 23.80 $ 29.01 $ 23.48 $ 23.50 $ 2 7 .0 1 $ 19.02 $ 20.57 $ 23.71 $ 22.82 $ 19.60 $ 20.95 $ 2 1.2 8 $ 33.62 $ 3 3 .6 2 $ 2 5 .0 6 $ 2 3 .8 4 $ 23.27 $ 25.25 N/A N/A $ 36.58 $ 40.00 $ 2 6 .7 0 $ 23.13 $ 27.85 $ 24.61 $ 23.16 $ 25.35 $ 2 6 .3 0 $ 30.88 N/A $ 25.75 $ 29.49 $ 22.98 $ 23.50 $ 2 8 .8 1 $ 23.66 $ 23.55 $ 24.85 $ 23.37 $ 20.17 $ 23.12 $ 2 3 .2 2 $ 33.78 $ 3 3 .7 8 $ 2 7 .7 8 $ 2 6 .5 4
Market Highlights
SIGNIFICANT 3Q11 LEASE TRANSACTIONS
BUILDING
225 S c hilling C ir 7205 Winds o r B lvd 3701 Ko ppe rs S t 10620 Guilfo rd R d
SUBMARKET
R o ute 83 No rth Wo o dla wn/C a ts o nville S o uthwe s t B WI Ho wa rd C o unty
TENANT
EA Engine e ring, S c ie nc e & Te c hno lo gy Inc No rthro p Grum m a n Offic e o f Im m igra tio n C le a rEdge IT S o lutio ns
SQUARE FEET
75,000 54,626 38,055 36,213
BUILDING CLASS
A A B B
SUBMARKET
S o uthe a s t M idto wn
BUYER
Unde r Arm o ur C ha s e B re xto n He a lth S e rvic e s , Inc .
SQUARE FEET
385,749 234,000
PURCHASE PRICE
$ 60,200,000 $ 6,700,000
SUBMARKET
Wo o dla wn/C a ts o nville B WI/Anne Arunde l Ha rfo rd
MAJOR TENANT
C e nte r fo r M e dic a re a nd M e dic a id S e rvic e s (C M S ) N/A S c ie nc e Applic a tio ns Inte rna tio na l C o rpo ra tio n (S AIC )
SQUARE FEET
228,000 110,000 75,000
COMPLETION DATE
3Q11 3Q11 3Q11
SUBMARKET
Ha rfo rd B WI/Anne Arunde l C o lum bia No rth
MAJOR TENANT
N/A N/A N/A
SQUARE FEET
120,000 110,000 68,779
COMPLETION DATE
1Q12 4Q11 1Q12
Cushman & Wakefield of Maryland, Inc. 500 E. Pratt Street, Suite 500, Baltimore, MD 21202 (410) 685-9595
www.cushmanwakefield.com
* The market terms and definitions in this report are based on NAIOP standards. No warranty or representation, express or implied, is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, change of price, rental or other conditions, withdrawal without notice, and to any special listing conditions imposed by our principals. 2011 Cushman & Wakefield, Inc. All rights reserved.