Professional Documents
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This material is divided into two sections : balance sheet CDO’s and arbitrage CDO’s
(page 25). This first session explains a specific sector of the CDO market : balance
sheet CLO’s (or Collateralised Loan Obligations, CLO’s).
What will you get out of this material ?
Well, at the end of this session you should :
Understand the rationale for issuing balance sheet CDO’s
Be aware of the credit enhancements for balance sheet CDO’s
What you already need to know:
You should already understand :
The basic mechanics of ABS.
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CDO’s
CBO’s CLO’s
Synthetic
Cash Market Balance
Balance
Arbitrage Value Sheet
Sheet
CBO’s Arbitrage CLO’s
CLO’s
1988 on CDO’s 1995 on
1997 on
Single Index
Synthetic
Tranche CDO’s CMCDO’s
Arbitrage
CDO’s 2003 on 2004 on
CDO’s
2001 on
1998 on
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Administration
Trustee/Servicer/Calculation Agent
Cash Cash
Proceeds Proceeds
AAA
SPV
Loan/Bond
Collateral
Mezzanine
Loans/Bonds/Interest Interest, AA
Principal
Mezzanine
BBB
Swap Equity
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CDO Terminology
100%
AAA 77%
23%
23%
Tranche Thickness
Conventional CLO
Here’s an example to show a conventional balance sheet CLO.
CORE 1999-1 LTD (Deutsche Bank AG)
CORE provides the opportunity to invest in the Mittelstand, small and medium sized
German corporates. Very few of these companies have debt outstanding in the capital
markets and few are listed – CORE provides pooled exposure to over 3,700 companies,
effectively allowing investors to buy the German economy. The loans are all fixed rate.
Group Treasurer Detlef Bindert commented at the time, “It is very significant for us,
because it allows us to roll assets off our balance sheet to make room for new
transactions.”
Deutsche were aiming to make a 25% return on regulatory capital by 2001 (its return on
capital was below 10% in 1999). None of the loans has ever been in arrears or required
bad debt provisioning.
Credit enhancement comes from around 180bp of excess spread, and a reserve fund
that builds from 1.3% to 2.3%, fed by excess spread. The €32m of funding for the
excess reserve is now Deutsche’s only capital commitment to the portfolio.
“We want to improve our return on regulatory and economic capital through
securitisation, and we have already begun homogenising our lending practices to make
securitisation easier,” said Jurgen Bilsten, board member of the CORE (Corporate and
Real Estate) division.
The deal was about 1.8 times oversubscribed.
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CORE Tranches
Class Size Rating Exp. Coupon
Maturity
A1A €365.8m P-1/A-1+ Dec 1999 3m Euribor + 6bp
A1B $194m P-1/A-1+ Dec 1999 3m Euribor + 3.5bp
A2 $274.4m Aaa/AAA Jun 2000 3m Euribor + 8bp
A3A €1.0341bn Aaa/AAA Jun 2004 3m Euribor + 21bp
A3B $250m Aaa/AAA Jun 2004 3m Euribor + 19.5bp
A4 €231.1m Aaa/AAA Dec 2005 Fixed 3.975%
M €44.7m Aa2/AA Dec 2005 3m Euribor + 30bp
B1 €49.6m A2/A Dec 2005 3m Euribor + 45p
B2A €20.6m Baa2/BBB Dec 2005 3m Euribor + 100bp
B2B €29.0m Baa2/BBB Dec 2005 Fixed 4.185%
B3A €7.9m Ba2/BB Dec 2005 3m Euribor + 300bp
B3B €47.0m Ba2/BB Dec 2005 Fixed 6.705%
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%
Class S&P Moody's Transaction Class Balance Avg Life Coupon
A-1 A-1+ P-1 10.3% $144.5 0.331 3m $Libor+1bps
A-2 AAA Aaa 4.2% EURO 57.0 0.581 3m Euribor+7bps
A-3 AAA Aaa 25.6% EURO 348.2 0.726 3m Euribor+10bps
A-4 AAA Aaa 13.5% $190.0 1.397 3m $Libor+10bps
A-5a AAA Aaa 30.2% EURO 410.6 3.042 3m Euribor+21bps
A-5b AAA Aaa 5.5% EURO 75.0 3.042 3.86
M AA Aa2 2.6% EURO 35.3 4.982 3m Euribor+29bps
B-1a A A2 0.8% EURO 11.0 5.331 3m Euribor+45bps
B-1b A A2 2.4% EURO 32.3 5.331 4.62
B-2a BBB Baa2 2.4% EURO 33.0 5.331 3m Euribor+95bps
B-2b BBB Baa2 0.4% EURO 5.0 5.331 5.1
B-3 BB Ba2 2.0% EURO 27.3 5.331 7.1
The CORE 99-2 transactions securitised 2,958 corporate loans with maximum
remaining maturity of 98 months, to over 2,281 borrowers. Within the collateral, no one
single borrower accounted for more than 1.5%of the portfolio by principle balance.
The figures below show the distribution of sales for CORE 1999-2.
Belgium
US 3%
Germany
25%
35%
Luxem.
1% Ireland
5%
UK Other France
15% 3% 13%
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Corporate
6.4%
Ins urance
Funds
30.9%
62.7%
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AAA Collateral
Portfolio Interest,
Default Principal Mezzanine
Swap AA
Premium
Mezzanine
BBB
Swap
Equity
The table below names some of the more well known CDO deals and their structures.
Early Basic Synthetic Structures
1. SPV, Fully Funded, Conventional; CORE 1999-1,1999-2
2. SPV, Fully funded, Synthetic; Geldilux 1999-1, Europa Two (CMBS)
3. SPV, Partially Funded, Synthetic, Super-Senior Tranche; BarCLO 1999
4. No SPV, Partially Funded, Synthetic, Super-Senior Tranche, CLN; CAST 1999-1,
2000-1, GLOBE 2000-1
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Geldilux
In 1999 HypoVereinsbank AG (HVB) announced a structured CLO transaction.
Geldilux Key Terms
Guarantee Funds
Geldilux
HVL SPV Notes AAA
Fee
Fee, Interest
Funds
Interest A
Collateral pledged
To HVL
Pfandbriefe BBB
Asset Collateral
Pool Equity
This CLO is unusual because HVL does not physically sell the loans to Geldilux. It only
transfers the economic risk of the reference pool. Geldilux issues a guarantee for the
economic performance of the reference portfolio to HVL, which establishes the transfer
of risk. HVL can draw under this guarantee if loan write-offs have occurred in the
reference loan portfolio.
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The rationale for doing a synthetic CLO in this case was quite simple. HVB did not want
to alienate corporate clients with a conventional CLO where HVB would have to ask
permission to sell the loans. The message from HVB is that they stay with their core
business of lending and they do not intend to stop servicing and analyzing their clients.
The guarantee issued by Geldilux has an effect similar to a credit default swap. To
pay for the guarantee, HVL pays a fee, like in a credit default swap. Under the
guarantee HVL may draw once an event of default has occurred. Unlike a regular credit
default swap, the guarantee may be used again if an additional event occurs. Thus the
guarantee resembles a pool of credit default swaps on each loan in the reference pool.
Credit Default Swap
Contingent Payment
Protection Protection
Buyer Seller
Periodic
Fee (bps)
Reference
Entity/Security
(Bond/Loan)
Collateral Pool
In a conventional CLO, the SPV uses the proceeds of the sale of notes to buy the loans.
In this early synthetic case, Geldilux uses the funds to buy collateral that backs up its
guarantee to HVL.
The proceeds from the sale of the notes will be used to:
• Purchase floating rate Pfandbriefe issued by HVB. The Pfandbriefe notes are rated
AAA.
• Invest in Euribor deposits at HVL or HVB
The proceeds from the sale of the A-1 and A-2 class are used to purchase the
Pfandbriefe. Pfandbriefe make good collateral because it is AAA rated. Also, the
Pfandbrief is a floating rate issue thus minimizing interest rate risk. Geldilux will always
be able to sell it near par unless HVB’s credit spread moves out.
HVB Risk Management Products (wholly owned subsidiary of HVB) has sold to the
issuer a put option that the issuer can exercise in case the market price of the
Pfandbrief collateral does indeed fall below par. If the value of the Pfandbriefe falls
below par at any reset date or at redemption, the put option will pay Geldilux the
difference between the value of the Pfandbriefe and par. If HVB is downgraded below a
rating of A, the put options are automatically exercised.
Proceeds from sale of B, C, D and E classes are placed in Euribor deposits.
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The guarantee will be used to absorb losses on the loans. The ranking of the
guarantee is based on class. The E class absorbs any losses first up to the C class.
Geldilux Tranches
The A-2 class pays note holders in USD. Geldilux will enter into a cross currency swap
for the principal of this class. The counterparty is Goldman Sachs Mitsui Marine
Derivative Products LP.
The tranching gives the following credit enhancement :
Credit Enhancement
A 6%
B 3.5%
C 2.5%
D 1.0%
E -
The A1 and A2 notes (94% in total, all AAA) therefore have 6% protection.
Geldilux Subordination
If all of the deposits above have been used to cover loan defaults, Pfandbriefe will be
sold to cover any further defaults.
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Geldilux will receive a servicing fee from HVB for this loan guarantee.
Principal is scheduled to be repaid at maturity in February 2002. Unlike structures from
other issuers (i.e. Deutsche Bank AG’s CORE) the investors do not carry any
prepayment risk, as the loans are not sold to the SPV.
However, as part of the credit enhancement, notes are redeemed immediately if:
• HVL or HVB is insolvent
• HVB defaults on Pfandbriefe
Interest on the notes will be funded by interest from the collateral (deposit and
Pfandbrief issue).
The fee HVL pays to Geldilux makes up for the difference between the interest received
from the collateral pool and the interest distributed to the noteholders. Allianz Risk
Transfer NV guarantees the payment of this fee up to €15m.
Interest is paid quarterly in arrears. Interest is paid at 3-month Euribor + spread on
each class.
Geldilux Spreads at Issue
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In case HVB defaults under its obligation under the put option and the trustee is not
able to sell the Pfandbriefe at par, A class note holders receive delivery of the
Pfandbriefe.
If the rating of HVB falls below A HVB Risk Management must take steps to eliminate
the exposure to HVB. This might be done through substitution of HVB Risk
Management
These measures, combined with the put option on the pfandbriefe, make the collateral
support for the “A” classes very strong and delinked from the rating of the selling bank.
HVL itself has no rating but has obtained general support from HBV. So, the ratings of
the classes B - D are related to the rating of HBV, as any loss in the deposit will be fully
attached to these classes.
Though the loans stay on HVL’s (HVB’s) balance sheet they no longer require any
capital. The relief of core capital amounts to more than €100m, according to the board
of HVB.
Geldilux Structure
Currency Swap
A2 Notes
Pfandbriefe,
Deposits EUR USD
Deposits
Interest
Interest, Notes
Guarantee Fee
HVL Geldilux 99
Fee
Put Option on
Pfandbriefe
HVL owns a large number of loans made to HVB’s corporate and private clients.
According to certain limiting criteria loans are put together into a defined pool of loans
(the reference pool).
The portfolio guaranteed by Geldilux contains 1,355 loans.
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Reference Pool
Criteria
Size Of Pool EUR 2.2 bn
Max maturity 364 days
Internally Rated Yes
Internal Rating <8
The internal loan rating system rates loans from 1-10. One is the best rating and 10 is
the worst rating.
Most of the loans are to small and midsize corporates or to private clients.
Clients: Midsize corporates and private clients
Single obligor limitation: Single borrower must not exceed 1% of portfolio.
Maturity limitation: Maturity no longer than 364 days
Actual average maturity: 105 days
Rating: Loans are unrated but are only handed out to
clients with long standing relationships and
favorable track record.
Single biggest loan: EUR 20m.
Loans to Bavarian 56.9% of portfolio
borrowers:
Loans to real estate 29% of portfolio. Loans to this sector could
sector: represent up to 45% of the reference pool. If
certain loss limits are reached, substitutions to
the pool can’t include real estate loans until their
exposure has been reduced to 20%.
Loans to private clients: 26% of portfolio
FitchIBCA could not apply their loan rating methodology to the portfolio because none of
the loans had external ratings to map to the internal ratings.
Loans were not externally rated because of their size and type of customer.
S&P used historical losses over a 10-year period (1988 –1998) on HVB’s loan portfolio
to rate the transaction.
S&P considered:
• Diversity of the loan portfolio
• Number of loans in the portfolio
• Quality of HVB’s internal rating system.
S&P consider the portfolio to be diversified except for some concentration to Bavaria
and in some real estate sectors. This has been compensated for through limiting criteria
regarding replacement of loans.
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Administration
Trustee/Servicer/Calculation Agent
Super
Senior
Loan
Class
Portfolio Contingent Cash (Hedged)
Payment Proceeds
Aaa
SPV
BBB
Credit Default Interest,
Swap Fee Principal
Equity
AAA Collateral
In effect, only a small part of the asset pool is securitised through the sale of notes. The
reference portfolio, in other words, is typically much larger than the note issue.
The credit risk of the larger part of the portfolio (the super-senior part) is typically
transferred via a credit default swap. This also makes it easier to create notes that have
(soft) bullet repayment. It appears that many investors prefer soft bullets, so it is likely
that this type of structure may become more prevalent in the market.
The synthetic deal with a super senior tranche tends to be cheaper than a conventional
structure and hence gives greater returns to equity, as can be seen in the figure below.
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AAA Super
(75-80% of Libor+35 to 50 Senior 10 to 20 bps
portfolio)
AAA Libor+40 to 65
Equity Equity
You can see from the spreadsheet below that the return to the equity holders in a
conventional CDO is 12.22%, whereas for the synthetic it is 18.81%. This is largely
because of the cheapness of the super-senior default swap.
Portfolio 1,000
Return 2.30%
Conventional Synthetic
Tranche Rating Notional Percentage Spread Notional Percentage Spread
SS - 750 75.0% 0.15%
A AAA 770 77.0% 0.45% 110 11.0% 0.45%
B AA 140 14.0% 1.00% 50 5.0% 1.00%
C BBB 50 5.0% 3.00% 50 5.0% 3.00%
Equity 40
Equity Spread 12.22% 18.81%
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The loans are not transferred to the SPV. Instead, in this early synthetic CLO, the credit
risk is transferred by Barclays through two credit default swaps.
The issuer (BarCLO) has entered into a credit default swap with Barclays Bank PLC
under which the issuer agrees to make payments to Barclays (up to a maximum of
$200m) for losses on a pool of reference credits with a notional amount of $2bn. All
credits in the pool will have investment grade ratings by public rating agencies.
The noteholders have security in the form of the repurchase agreement (repo), repo
collateral, allowable investments in government securities and the credit swap with
Barclays.
The ratings reflect the investment grade quality of the reference loans, the structure of
the transaction (including credit enhancement levels), and Barclays’ strength as repo
and credit swap counterparty.
In addition, there is a credit default swap with Bank of America that covers any losses
over $200m (ie the next $1.8bn of the portfolio) for the super-senior tranche. The default
risk of the super-senior class, rather than being retained, has therefore been passed on
to the Bank of America. Barclays still needs to hold a 20% capital weighting against a
default by Bank of America.
The protection for this (8 basis points) is relatively cheap because losses up to $200m
have to occur before Bank of America becomes liable to make default payments to
Barclays.
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Class A
Bank of $65m
America Aaa/AAA
Contingent Class B
Payment Credit Default
Swap Fee $60m
Barclays Contingent A2/A
Loan Payment
Portfolio
$2bn BarCLO Class C
SPV $35m
Credit BBB
Default
Swap
Fee
Class D
$20m
BB
Collateral Class E
UST, Repo $20m
NR
The issuer will invest in US treasuries and/or repurchase agreements (US Treasuries)
with Barclays. The US treasuries, repo, and all payments due to the issuer under the
credit swap will serve as collateral for the noteholders, subject to a first priority lien by
Barclays under the credit swap. This structure allows the most senior tranche to be
rated AAA, which is above Barclays AA+ rating from Fitch IBCA.
The repo collateral will be marked to market daily and must equal at least 100% of the
principal balance of the notes plus accrued but unpaid interest due under the repo. If
there is any deficit Barclays will have to post additional securities or cash.
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At maturity, Barclays will repurchase the government securities at their market price.
The proceeds of this repurchase will be available to repay principal to the noteholders,
net of any credit payments due under the credit swap.
It is possible that there may not be market appetite for $2bn of CLO notes. The
secondary credit default swap will be cheap because Barclays and the noteholders take
the first loss up to $200m. Also, the credit derivative route is cheaper.
Interest on the notes will be paid monthly from proceeds paid by the repo counterparty,
income received on permitted investments, and amounts due under the credit swap.
If Barclays fails to make payments under the repo or credit swap an event of default will
occur and the repo collateral can be liquidated. Exposure to market value changes of
the repo collateral is limited to the five day grace period the repo counterparty has upon
default, plus the time it would take to liquidate the securities.
Interest is paid on the full principal balance of the notes, since credit protection
payments under the credit swap are not due until maturity of the transaction.
No principal will be distributed to noteholders until the scheduled maturity of the notes
(unless there is a ‘termination’ event eg default by swap counterparty). Similarly,
Barclays will not receive any credit protection payments until scheduled maturity.
At maturity Barclays will repurchase the repo collateral from the issuer. The cash
repurchase price will go first to pay any credit protection payments due under the credit
swap, then to repay the notes in order of seniority.
Reference Credit Pool
The default risk being transferred is on a highly diversified pool of investment grade
credits. There are 181 obligors in the pool. An obligor with a rating of AA+ or better can
compose up to 1.2% of the reference pool; individual obligors rated AA through A- can
account for up to 1% of the pool; and any credit rated below A- cannot represent more
than 0.5% of the pool. The lowest rating allowed is BBB- and obligors so rated are
limited in aggregate to 10% of the total reference portfolio.
Industry concentrations in the pool are limited to 10%, with the top three allowed to
exceed 10% but none higher than 15%. Exposure to countries rated below AA is limited
to 10%; there can be no exposure to countries rated below investment grade.
The reference credits can reference a whole or part of a credit; Barclays need not own
any reference credits and may assign or terminate its right/obligations under any of the
reference credits. Credits that are deleted from the pool may be replaced by other
reference credits as long as the pool meets the covenants in the transaction
documents.
Credit Enhancement and Stress Tests
Credit protection is provided by the subordination of the E notes to the D notes, which
are junior to the class C notes which are junior to the class B notes, which are junior to
the class A notes.
Based on the maximum reference pool of $2bn the class A notes have credit
enhancement of 6.75% (eg $135m/$2bn); class B has 3.75%; class C has 2.00% and
class D has 1.00%.
Fitch IBCA stressed the reference credits to default levels ranging from 2.0% to 6.5%.
Recoveries were assumed to be 42.5%, well below Fitch IBCA’s experience with bank
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loans. The structure passed all stress tests at the rating levels below. Fitch IBCA also
ascertained that the rated debt could withstand defaults of several of the largest
permitted obligors in the pool without suffering any losses.
The deal significantly enhanced return on weighted risk assets (WRA’s).
Defaulted credits will be put up for three bids between the 20th and 30th day after the
credit event has been declared. If at least two bids have not been received the process
will be repeated. If two bids are received between the 60th and 90th business day, the
higher of these will be considered the value of the loan. If two quotes are not received
on either of these dates, a nationally recognised independent accounting firm will value
the credit by the 120th day. The credit protection payment due to Barclays will be one
minus the value determined by the quotes multiplied by the par amount of the credit.
Initially all credits will have this method of default payment.
Example : CAST 1999-1, Synthetic CLO (No SPV), CLN
Here’s a good example of an early synthetic CLO with a super-senior tranche. The
structure of the Deutsche Bank CAST deal is shown below.
CAST 1999-1
OECD Bank
Credit Default Swap
Super
DBAH Senior
Corporate Deutsche Class
Loan Bank
Portfolio AG
(Issuer)
Pfandbrief Collateral AAA to AA
A to BB
Equity
Trustee
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Super-
Senior
86.5%
AAA to AA 5.5%
A to BB 5.0%
Equity 3.0%
The CAST synthetic deal is an extension of Deutsche Bank’s established CORE CLO
programme. As mentioned above, synthetic structures permit the sponsoring institution
to obtain credit protection on a much larger reference portfolio than would be
practicable in the conventional CLO market.
The main element of interest in the CAST structure is that it does not contain an SPV.
Instead, the notes are direct obligations of Deutsche Bank, with an embedded credit
contingency based on the reference portfolio from Deutsche’s middle market corporate
loan portfolio.
As the notes are direct obligations of Deutsche Bank the rating of each note class is
linked both to Deutsche Bank’s rating and the exposure to losses in the reference
portfolio (see section on ‘Linked’ and ‘Delinked’ in the Geldilux deal above).
The A and B classes (AAA to AA) obtain their high ratings (relative to DB) by being
collateralised by AAA rated pfandbriefe issued by Eurohypo AG. In effect, this de-links
them from the Deutsche Bank rating.[The pfandbriefe collateralise the remaining
outstanding balance of the A and B classes after taking into account any qualifying
credit losses in the reference portfolio, not the full initial notional principal on the notes].
Should the issuer default the trustees will sell pfandbriefe at the market price. If the long
term unsecured debt rating of the issuer is downgraded below F1 by Fitch IBCA or A-1+
by S&P, the issuer will enter into a put option agreement with a counterparty with at
least the equivalent of the above ratings from any two of the rating agencies. The put
will require the counterparty to purchase pfandbriefe at par plus accrued interest.
Classes C, D and E do not have the benefit of any collateral. They are therefore linked
to the rating of Deutsche Bank and to the performance of the reference pool.
The notes are bullet structures that mature in October 2006 (legal final 2008, two years
after the expected maturity to allow for any workout of defaulted loans). There is
therefore some extension risk (starting with the most junior notes) although the notes
will continue to receive interest in the extension period.
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There is the ability to add new loans to the pool (subject to specific rating criteria) as
existing loans are repaid or prepaid (this is needed because the assets in the CAST
reference pool are amortising, whereas the notes have bullet repayment). This is a
departure from the CORE structure, where the collateral and notes are both amortising.
The reference portfolio for the CAST deal is very similar to that for the CORE
programme (it represents the ‘Mittelstand’ or German middle-market corporates). It is
diversified both geographically across Germany and also across sectors.
For more detail on the CAST 99-1 deal you should read ‘CAST 99-1 A Synthetic CLO’,
Deutsche Bank Global Markets Research November 1999.
Exercise
You have been given some brief details below of the GLOBE 2000-1 CLO. You should
also read the DB document ‘GLOBE-R 2000-1’, Global Markets Research June 6 2000.
You are required to create a brief sales memo (one page max) in anticipation of phoning
an institutional investor. Send your sales memo to : michael.pawley@db.com
GLOBE 2000-1, synthetic CLO (no SPV), CLN
This was Deutsche Bank’s third synthetic CLO (following on from CAST 1999-1 and
Blue Stripe 1999-1).
Like the CAST deal, GLOBE does not have an SPV. The notes in the transaction are
credit linked notes that are direct obligations of Deutsche Bank. As in the CAST deal,
the AAA notes are collateralised by AAA pfandbriefe, effectively de-linking them from the
credit rating of Deutsche Bank. The pfandbriefe are only used to insulate AAA investors
from Deutsche Bank credit risk – the credit risk in the reference portfolio is managed
through tranching (subordination).
The notes have a bullet repayment structure and a maturity of 5.5 years. The purpose
of the deal is for Deutsche Bank to obtain capital relief in order to improve regulatory
and economic capital ratios.
The structure is shown below.
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GLOBE 2000-1
OECD Bank
Credit Default Swap
Super
DBAH Senior
Corporate Deutsche Class
Loan Bank
Portfolio AG
(Issuer)
Pfandbrief Collateral AAA
A to BB
Equity
Trustee
Super-
Senior
86.0%
AAA to AA 3.0%
A to BB 7.0%
Equity 4.0%
There is credit leverage in a synthetic CLO because the reference portfolio is much
larger than the note issue. The synthetic structure thus allows Deutsche to obtain credit
protection on a much larger reference portfolio than would be practicable in the
conventional CLO format.
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Moreover, the synthetic CLO structure can be used effectively to create bullet
structures, whereas conventional CLO’s tend to have amortising notes.
The main difference between GLOBE and the earlier CAST deal relates to the type of
assets in the reference pool. In GLOBE the assets are of varying types (syndicated
loans, bilateral loans, revolving credits) and denominated in several currencies. Given
that the notes are CLN’s and direct obligations of Deutsche Bank AG, there is no
specific hedging in the structure [ losses in non-EUR denominated loans are calculated
using either the exchange rate valid at the credit event date or the loss determination
date, whichever yield the lower loss value in EUR].
Relative Value In CLO’s
The most relevant comparables for balance sheet CLO’s are bank bonds and credit
card receivable ABS. CLO’s offer a significant pickup to both asset classes, partly
because there is less liquidity in the CLO market compared with the more well-
established bond markets.
When synthetics first appeared in the market they tended to trade at a spread to more
conventional CLO’s. This is likely to have been linked to how investors perceived the
‘super-senior’ tranche . Some investors feel that there is ambiguity in having a AAA
class that is nevertheless subordinate to the super-senior class. They are somewhat
cautious in accepting that expected losses on the super-senior and AAA should be the
same.
There has also been some confusion amongst AAA-only investors as to whether or not
the AAA mezzanine classes are eligible investments.
The premium for synthetic issues over more conventional CLO’s appears to be
declining.
☺
That’s the end of the session (at last !) You should now :
Understand the rationale for issuing balance sheet CDO’s
Be aware of the credit enhancements for balance sheet CDO’s
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Arbitrage CDO’s
Mike Pawley
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What will you get out of this material ?
Understand how cash flow and market value CDO’s are structured
Be aware of the credit enhancements for cash flow and market value CDO’s
What you already need to know:
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CDO’s
CBO’s CLO’s
Synthetic
Cash Market Balance
Balance
Arbitrage Value Sheet
Sheet
CBO’s Arbitrage CLO’s
CLO’s
1988 on CDO’s 1995 on
1997 on
Single Index
Synthetic
Tranche CDO’s CMCDO’s
Arbitrage
CDO’s 2003 on 2004 on
CDO’s
2001 on
1998 on
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Arbitrage CDO’s
In an arbitrage CDO the issuer captures any spread that might be evident between the
pricing of securities (typically ABS, investment grade and high yield) in the secondary
capital markets and the yield on investment grade assets that are sold to investors.
Despite the arbitrage that is available to CDO collateral managers, there is also
something in this for investors. CDO bonds offer substantially wider spreads across the
credit spectrum relative to comparably rated corporate bonds. CDO’s also offer
investors diversification, and, typically, access to assets that might not otherwise
normally be available in the market.
Collateral Manager
AAA 77%
Cash
Proceeds
Cash
Flows
Assets : SPV
ABS
Interest,
Principal
AA 14%
BBB 5%
Equity 4%
As can be seen from the figure below, the CDO market has to some extent shifted to
ABS assets and away from investment grade and high yield assets. ABS are less
volatile and more diversified, with stable ratings and low correlation to specific
industry risks. If there are problems with an ABS pool there will tend to be slow
deterioration in the pool, rather than shock ‘single event’ risks such as Worldcom.
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Investment
Grade HighYield
9% Bonds ABS/MBS
Emerging
Other High 24% CMBS
Market Value Market
Yield HY 64%
1%
6% 4%
Arbitrage CDO’s can be either ‘Cash Flow’ or ‘Market Value’. In the cash flow CDO (the
more common of the two by number of transactions) the cash flow from the collateral
pays the interest on the investors’ notes. Fluctuations in the market value of the
collateral are relatively unimportant (except if there is a default) in cash flow CDO’s. The
assets tend not to be actively traded – instead, this is a relatively static buy-and-hold
type of strategy. Cash flow CDO’s are structured so that investment grade bonds can
withstand the worst default experience seen over the past 30 years without suffering
losses.
In a market value CDO, by contrast, the asset manager actively trades the collateral to
take advantage of perceived changing market conditions. The performance of investors’
securities thus depends on both the market value and credit performance of the
collateral pool. Mark-to-market of the collateral occurs regularly, and the asset manager
is required to keep an equity cushion between the market value of the assets and the
principal amount of investors’ outstanding debt. If this falls below a trigger amount, the
collateral manager must sell assets and pay down liabilities. Market value CDO’s are
structured so that investment grade bonds can withstand multiples of the worst historic
price volatility seen over the past 30 years.
The main difference between CDO’s and most other asset backed securities (eg MBS,
CMBS etc) is that the collateral manager in a CDO has much greater scope for actively
managing the collateral portfolio. Whilst most classes of ABS tend to have fairly static
pools that don’t change greatly, or have limited collateral substitution once they are set
up (credit cards being slightly different, given their revolving structure), CDO’s allow for
actively managing/trading the portfolio.
The importance of this for investors in market value CDO’s is that the ability of the
collateral manager becomes a key consideration in the investment decision.
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Cash flow arbitrage structures tend to dominate the arbitrage CDO market, representing
around 60-70% of the total number of CDO transactions, and about 40-45% by
issuance volume.
The structure of a cash flow CDO is fairly well represented by the generic structure in
the figure seen in the previous section.
Cash flow CDO’s are structured so that the collateral pool creates enough interest and
principal cash flows to cover debt service requirements on the CDO securities.
Cash flow CDO collateral in the US market (the main market) tends to be dominated by
ABS. However, several types of assets have been used in the past to create cash flow
CDO’s, including G7 high yield bonds, other OECD high yield bonds, emerging market
debt, US and non-US bank loans, mezzanine debt and credit derivatives.
The figure below shows the typical life-cycle of a CDO (both cash flow and market
value).
Pricing/Closing Maturity
8-12 Years
2. Pricing/Closing -
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During the ramp-up period the asset manager acquires assets until the transaction is
fully invested. In the reinvestment or revolving period, interest payments from the
collateral are passed through to bondholders, whilst principal repayments are
reinvested in new assets. At the end of the reinvestment period principal repayments
are passed through to bondholders, beginning with the most senior class, until all
outstanding bonds have been repaid.
Asset Criteria
There are a variety of constraints on the composition of the collateral pool that the
collateral manager must meet at inception and on an ongoing basis in a cash flow CDO.
If the collateral pool fails these criteria during the life of the transaction, any subsequent
trades by the asset manager must either maintain or improve the stated portfolio
criteria.
There will be a constraint or limit on the type of asset the CDO can hold (eg limits on the
amount of emerging market debt as a percentage of the whole collateral pool, or limits
on investing in the notes of other CDO’s, etc).
Typically, the collateral pool will have to maintain a maximum weighted average rating
score and a minimum diversity score (Moody’s). There will also usually be concentration
restrictions for individual obligors and for individual sectors. This means that CDO
portfolios tend to be more diversified than the cash high yield market.
There may also be a minimum coupon requirement (to make sure there are adequate
interest flows to meet servicing requirements on the CDO securities) and also a
requirement that collateral assets mature before the stated final maturity date of the
CDO, to reduce risk of shortfalls at maturity.
Cash flow CDO’s do not have a mark-to-market requirement (unlike market value
CDO’s). The deal is structured so that, as long as there are no defaults, the cash flows
from the asset pool are sufficient to pay interest and repay principal on all classes of
bonds over the life of the deal.
In a typical cash flow CDO the senior class represents 65%-75% of the capital
structure, and are usually floating rate. They typically have an average life of around 6
to 8 years (legal final around 10-12 years) and are often callable after 3 to 5 years at the
option of the equity class holders at the greater of par or some make-whole provision.
The AAA rated senior class gets its rating based on the internal credit enhancement.
This comes in the form of subordination of the mezzanine and junior classes to the
senior class. It also comes from overcollateralisation and interest coverage triggers (see
below). Notice that the amount of credit enhancement to achieve a AAA rating is
substantially higher than compared to other ABS asset classes, largely because of the
higher default risk of the collateral and the relatively long term of the assets.
Senior bondholders have minimal credit risk as shown by their AAA or AA ratings, but
their expected return is of course lower than the underlying collateral.
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The structure may have a single A or BBB mezzanine class, or both, as well as a BB or
single B tranche. These classes may be either fixed or floating, according to investor
demand. The mezzanine class tends to account for 10-20% of a typical cash flow CDO,
whilst the most junior rated class may well account for less than 5% of the deal.
The subordinated classes have a leveraged exposure to credit risk, and offer
substantially wider spreads than the underlying collateral.
The equity class is often around 10% of the capital structure (a larger equity class may
be required if the collateral pool has emerging market securities or distressed debt).
The table below shows the breakeven default rate on a generic cash flow CDO . The
AAA class, for example, can withstand annual defaults of 29.4% in the pool over the life
of the deal before losses are taken. This is much higher than the worst one-year high
yield default rate recorded by Moody’s (10.53%) or the highest 10 year moving average
default rate (5.6%). Even the BBB class can withstand anything that history can throw at
it. The B1 class may, however, see losses according the Moody’s data. Investors need
to weigh up the risk and returns from these different tranches.
Overcollateralisation
Cash flow CDO’s use overcollateralisation and interest coverage triggers (as well as
subordination) to achieve credit enhancement. If these triggers are breached, interest
cash flows from the collateral must be diverted from the more junior classes to pay
down the senior notes until the coverage tests are met.
The senior class O/C ratio equals the sum of the face amount of the outstanding
collateral in the pool divided by the outstanding face amount of the senior class:
100/70 = 143%
The mezzanine O/C ratio is the face amount of the collateral divided by the sum of
senior and mezzanine bonds :
100/(70+16) = 116%
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Overcollateralisation Table
At the start of the life of the structure, all of the classes have higher actual O/C’s than
required. However, let’s say that there is a loss of 8 in the collateral. The face value of
the collateral drops to 92, reducing the equity class from 10 to 2. The mezzanine class
actual O/C is now only 107%, below the required level of 108%. Interest flows must
therefore be diverted from the subordinate class to pay down first the senior class then
the mezzanine class. In our example, once the senior class is reduced to 64 the
mezzanine minimum overcollateralisation test is met.
Deferred interest is paid to the class C noteholders out of excess spread once the
overcollateralisation tests are met.
The interest coverage ratio test is constructed to ensure that the interest on the
collateral pool is sufficient to service the outstanding debt.
Typical minimum interest coverage ratios might be 140% for the senior class, 125% for
the mezzanine and 100% for the subordinate class.
The figure below shows the priority of interest and principal payments in a typical CDO.
Around 50%-75% of the manager’s fee is a senior obligation of the CDO transaction.
The balance is subordinated to the mezzanine class and senior to the equity tranche.
Generally, the manager holds 10% to 40% of the equity in the transaction, to keep the
manager on his toes.
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Interest flows from the collateral are paid to bond holders during the reinvestment
period, whilst principal cash flows are reinvested in new collateral. If the structure fails
to meet overcollateralisation or interest coverage test then interest flows are diverted
from more junior classes to pay down senior bonds until the tests are met (as explained
above).
Collateral
SPV
Manager
Trustee, Class A O/C & Class B OC & Class C O/C & Sub- Class D
Admin & Notes Interest Notes Interest Notes Interest -ordinated Notes
Snr Mgmt Coverage Coverage coverage Mgmt Fees
Fees Tests tests Tests
Source : Adapted from “The Arbitrage CDO Market”, Global Markets Research, March 21, 2000
During the principal repayment period, principal cash flows are distributed to
bondholders sequentially as the collateral matures.
The main areas of analysis for the rating agencies in a cash flow CDO are the credit
quality and cash flow of the asset pool, the qualifications of the asset manager and the
legal infrastructure.
Special attention is paid to the level of expected losses on the collateral. All of the rating
agencies have built up databases on historical default levels that they use to calculate
expected loss.
[Expected loss is a function of the probability of default and loss severity if default
occurs. eg if probability of default is 5% and the loss rate on default is 70% of par (a
recovery rate of 30%) then the expected loss is 5% x 70% = 3.5%].
Loss severity of a particular asset is tied to the seniority of the asset in the issuer’s
capital structure. So, senior secured bank debt has an average recovery rate of about
70%, while senior unsecured debt is about 49%. (these are reduced to around 50%-
60% and 35%-40% respectively for stress tests).
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The collateral pool is stressed and credit enhancement levels are established based on
the risk characteristics of the pool and the desired rating.
The agencies generally apply a rating factor to each asset in the pool (see below) and
then calculate a weighted average rating based on the asset size.
Aaa/AAA 1
Aa1/AA+ 10
Aa2/AA 20
Aa3/AA- 40
A1/A+ 70
A2/A 120
A3/A- 180
Baa1/BBB+ 260
Baa2/BBB 360
Baa3/BBB- 610
Ba1/BB+ 940
Ba2/BB 1350
Ba3/BB- 1780
B1/B+ 2220
B2/B 2720
B3/B- 3490
CCC+ NA
Caa/CCC 6500
CCC- NA
<Ca/<CCC- 10000
Diversity in the collateral pool is another important factor that rating agencies take into
account.
Typically, there are restrictions on any one obligor representing more than 2%-3% of the
pool, and a maximum of around 8%-12% in any one industry. If the pool is to have
higher concentrations the agencies will require higher O/C ratios (ie higher credit
enhancement levels).
The diversity score is interpreted as the equivalent of the number of equal sized,
independent positions in the pool. If the pool contained 100 bonds of various sizes and
a pool diversity score of 40, Moody’s would treat it as 40 equal sized, independent
bonds.
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The tables below show how the diversity scores of three different pools would be
calculated. The first pool has twenty firms, with two firms in each of ten industries. Using
the diversity scores above, the total pool diversity would be 15.
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The second pool also has twenty firms, but spread unevenly over twelve industries.
Nevertheless, it has more or less the same total diversity score as the first pool.
The final pool has 100 firms spread over twelve industries, with a total diversity score of
42.75.
Table : Diversity Score for Pool with 100 Firms (Typical CDO)
Industry Firms Diversity Score
A 10 4
B 8 3.5
C 10 4
D 7 3.25
E 10 4
F 4 2.33
G 9 3.75
H 10 4
I 10 4
J 5 2.67
K 8 3.5
L 9 3.75
A well diversified CDO may have over 100 bonds in the collateral pool and a Moody’s
diversity score of 40 or better, as in the simplified pool above.
Clearly, asset manager ability is important. The agencies review the manager’s prior
performance record, its trading facilities, back office function, research operation etc.
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Fully synthetic arbitrage CDO’s started to enter the market in 2000. These are a natural
extension of the early synthetic deals discussed earlier. The innovation here is that the
collateral is a pool of single name CDS. Here, investors are effectively selling protection
to the sponsor of the transaction, and the sponsor is then selling it on to dealers (see
figure below).
AAA Collateral
Single
Default
Swaps Default
Protection
CDS
Counterparty 1 Super
Senior
CDS
Fee
CDS Default
Protection SPV
Counterparty 2
Cash
Proceeds
Fee
Notes
Default A
Protection
B
CDS
Counterparty 3
Interest,
Fee Principal Equity
An example of the type of structure seen above is Blue-Chip Funding 2001-1 PLC, that
also includes a super-senior credit default swap.
You will also tend to see structures that dispense with notes altogether, and instead
enter into credit default swaps with investors. A generic structure is shown below.
Because there is no exchange of principal the SPV can be done away with. These
structured tranches of ‘Portfolio Swaps’ are a very efficient method of transferring risk.
Many of these deals tend to have super-senior tranches.
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Tranched
Portfolio of
Default Swaps
Single
Default
Swaps Default
Protection Default
CDS Protection
Counterparty
1
Super
Fee Fee
Senior CDS
Default Default
Protection Sponsor Protection
CDS CDS
Counterparty Counterparty
2 Class A CDS
Fee
Fee
Default
Protection
Default
Class B CDS
CDS Protection
Counterparty Fee
3 First Loss
Fee
With market value CDO’s, the performance of the structure is based on the mark-to-
market performance of the collateral pool. There tends to be greater latitude for actively
trading in market value CDO’s than in cash flow CDO’s. Generally, managers are also
able to invest in a wider class of assets in market value CDO’s (see the table below).
The key rationale for market value CDO’s (as with cash flow CDO’s) is arbitrage – the
difference between the total return on the collateral and the yield on the CDO securities.
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As with cash flow CDO’s, market value CDO’s have minimum diversity requirements,
although these can be breached to take advantage of trading opportunities, as long as
they are financed with equity (typical limits shown in the table below).
The tranching in a market value CDO tends to differ to that in a cash flow CDO. The
most senior class typically involves a revolving loan facility (around 50% of the capital
structure) that can be repaid or drawn down at any time. The purpose of this is to give
the collateral manager the flexibility to ramp up the portfolio over time or to sell assets
and pay down debt to meet O/C requirements.
There also tends to be another senior class that ranks pari passu with the revolver that
accounts for around 10%-20% of the capital structure (see figure below). This is
sometimes enhanced to AAA through the use of a third party wrap.
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AA Revolver
40%-50%
AA Term Note
15%-20%
A 5%-6%
BBB 6%-8%
B 1%-2%
Equity 15%-20%
There are usually three or four additional mezzanine and subordinate classes, carrying
ratings from A to B.
The equity class in market value CDO’s tend to be fairly large so that it can provide a
cushion against price volatility in the collateral pool.
The table below shows typical advance rates that can be achieved by collateral
managers when issuing CDO debt. These are the proportions of the purchase price
(and market value on an ongoing basis) that can be financed with the CDO securities.
AAA AA A BBB BB B
Cash 100 100 100 100 100 100
Government Secs 2-10yr 95 95 95 95 95 100
Bank Loans MV>90% 86 90 91 93 94 96
Investment Grade Corp Bonds 85 88 91 94 94 96
Bank Loans MV 80-90% BB- Corp Debt 73 81 87 90 92 92
Bank Loans MV 70-80% BB- Corp Debt 69 75 85 87 89 89
Other Ban Loans CCC+ 52 60 72 79 85 82
Investment Grade CB’s 60 70 80 85 80 90
Non Investment Grade CB’s 52 64 76 81 78 88
Equity, Illiquid Debt 40 50 71 78 78 85
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The advance rates mentioned above have been derived from stress testing over a very
wide range of economic scenarios, taking into account changes in interest rates,
changes in default rates, changes in correlation among asset classes etc.
Key tests in the market value structure are O/C and minimum net worth.
The O/C test is driven by the market value of the collateral. The manager must maintain
a minimum ratio of collateral market value relative to the par amount of debt
outstanding. If a trigger is breached it must typically be solved within ten days or so (by
selling assets and paying down debt). Otherwise, the entire collateral portfolio may be
subject to liquidation (to ensure that senior holders are repaid before the market value
of the pool deteriorates too much).
Minimum net worth ratios are calculated as the market value of the equity divided by the
amount of paid-in capital or original equity (where the market value of equity is the
market value of assets less the par amount of debt). The minimum net worth ratio might
vary from 60% for the senior class to 30% for the subordinated class. If there is a
breach, the senior-most debt holders can decide whether or not to start liquidating the
portfolio.
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Investment banks have honed their credit and correlation risk management techniques
to the extent that they now offer single tranche arbitrage cash flow CDO’s.
CDO’s have four types of risk : default, spread, recovery and correlation. By buying
protection on a tranche and simultaneously hedging by selling protection on the
individual names in the portfolio, default, spread and recovery risk can be managed to a
degree. The trader is left with correlation risk.
Default correlation has a significant impact on the shape of the loss distribution. The
shape of the loss distribution, in turn, drives the pricing of the CDO tranches. The figure
below shows the loss distribution of a pool of assets given low correlation (1%). With
low correlation, the assets are more or less independent. There is a low probability of
large losses and also a low probability of zero losses. The spread on the senior tranche
will tend to be small, the spread on the equity tranche will tend to be large.
20%
18%
16%
14%
12%
Probability
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% 24% 28% 32% 36% 40% 44% 48%
Portfolio Loss (%)
What if we increase the correlation ? The resulting loss distribution for the portfolio
given a 45% correlation is shown below. With this ‘medium’ correlation, the assets are
more likely to default together and the distribution of the right hand tail is longer. This
means more risk in the senior tranche and hence a larger senior spread than in the
previous example. The probability of zero losses has also increased, so the equity is
less risky and the equity spread consequently smaller than before.
35.00%
30.00%
25.00%
Probability
20.00%
15.00%
10.00%
5.00%
0.00%
0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% 24% 28% 32% 36% 40% 44% 48%
Portfolio Loss (%)
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Finally, for high correlation, as in the figure below, the portfolio behaves like one asset
with no diversification. The assets either all default or all survive, with a significant
probability that there will be a large number of losses, so the spread required to hold the
senior tranche is relatively large. The probability of zero losses is very high so the equity
spread is relatively small.
80.00%
70.00%
60.00%
50.00%
Probability
40.00%
30.00%
20.00%
10.00%
0.00%
0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% 24% 28% 32% 36% 40% 44% 48%
Portfolio Loss (%)
Low correlation, assets more or less independent, low probability of large losses, low
probability of zero losses – spread on senior tranche is small, spread on equity tranche
is large.
Medium correlation, assets more likely to default together, distribution of tail longer –
more risk in senior tranche, larger senior spread than before; probability of zero losses
has increased, equity less risky and equity spread smaller than before.
High correlation, portfolio behaves like one asset, no diversification, either all default or
all survive, probability of large number of losses is significant, spread required to hold
senior tranche is relatively large; probability of zero losses is very high so equity spread
is small.
25.00%
20.00%
Spreads (%)
15.00% Equity
Mezzanine
10.00% Senior
5.00%
0.00%
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Default Correlation
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Credit Select
Deutsche Bank offers notes linked to customised synthetic credit portfolios under the
Credit Select name. These are CDO’s selected and controlled by the investor (or their
manager). The advantages of Credit Select are : flexibility over the initial portfolio
composition and changes in the portfolio (simple rules apply); transparent pricing for the
initial portfolio and switches; small, private transactions are possible; rapid execution
can take place (DB underwrites the remaining capital structure); standardised maturity
(5 year).
The figures below show that Deutsche Bank can sell any part of the capital structure to
an investor and hedge the rest of the risk.
100%
Super Senior
DB Underwrites Risk on
Senior 96% of Structure
AAA
(100 Investment Grade
Credit Swaps, each 10m)
AA
4%
Investor Takes 40m
Equity
First Loss Notes
0%
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100%
Super Senior
DB Underwrites Risk on
AAA Senior 96% of Structure
(100 Investment Grade
AA Credit Swaps, each 10m)
4%
BBB
Investor Takes 10m BBB Notes
3%
Equity
DB Underwrites 30m Equity (First Loss)
0%
TAPAS
Index CDO’s
Index CDO’s are similar to synthetic investment grade CDO’s, however, there is an
important innovation : Investors can buy and sell protection on tranches. Index CDO’s
have thus paved the way for standardised trading of correlation.
Unfortunately, index CDO’s can again cause confusion over terminology. Here is a
guide :
The Dow Jones Indices have become the de facto indicators for the synthetic credit
default swap market. The DJ indices represent the merger of two leading indices in
June 2004 (iBoxx and DJ TRAC-X). Here are (some) of the indices available :
The figure below shows the capital structures of two of the main indices :
CDX. NA DJiTraxx
Investment
Super Senior (15-30%) Europe 5y Super Senior (12-22%)
Grade Index
Losses Losses
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For traders and investors the tranche delta is an important concept for hedging
purposes. The tranche Delta with respect to the index (sensitivity of tranche to change
in underlying index spread) is :
Eg delta of -70 means that the change in tranche MTM is -0.70% (ie -70 x 0.01%) for a
one basis point shift in the index spread from say, 42 to 43 bp. So, another way to think
of this is that -0.70% is the tranche PV01.
However, there are problems with delta hedging using the index. If the hedger believes
that general spread changes need to be hedged then using the index is fine – but if the
hedger believes some credits may move independently then hedge exposures to
individual credits. This is because the index sensitivity is the same for all credits
because they are equally weighted, but the tranche sensitivity varies across credits.
Delta hedging also results in negative carry for all but the equity tranche.
Another important factor for tranche hedgers is gamma risk. Tranche gamma is the
sensitivity of the tranche delta to changes in the underlying index spread :
Tranche Delta wrt Crediti (sensitivity of tranche to change in single name (crediti) spread
:
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Hedge Ratio :
In practice, hedgers often delta hedge using individual credits. Here, a tranche is
hedged (in theory) by buying protection on delta hedge notionals on all credits in the
pool. Carry is again negative for all but the equity tranche, and rebalancing is very
expensive and resource intensive. In practice, many many hedgers use a reverse
cherry picking strategy whereby they only hedge the riskiest names. The problem, of
course, is how to identify the riskiest names – by using spread or asset volatilities
perhaps ?
CDO2
The market has evolved to the extent that CDO of CDO’s are possible (or, in the
terminology, CDO Suared or CDO2). The figure below shows that the CDO master pool
is made up of the mezzanine tranches of several CDO’s.
Senior
Mezz. (High)
Mezz.(Low)
Equity
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There is typically high diversification in these deals, with an underlying pool of usually
around 300 names and a diversity score of 200-250 as opposed to 75-100 for vanilla
deals. Investors tend to buy CDO2 tranches to express macro views and systemic risks.
This is because the number of defaults needed to hit mezzanine tranches is typically
fairly high, and would normally result from default contagion ie large shocks to the
global economy. The concept of ‘overlap’ or ‘double leverage’ is crucial to CDO2. It
means the existence of the same credit in several constituent CDO’s underlying the
CDO2. The overlap effect means the investor receives higher tranche spreads for the
same rating. However, overlap also increases the risk to systemic risk.
The figures below should prove interesting….They show that overlap tends to have the
same impact on CDO loss distributions as correlation. The lower the overlap, the lower
the correlation , the higher the overlap, the higher the correlation. So, equity returns will
fall as overlap rises whereas mezzanine and senior returns will tend to rise.
Probability
12% 20.00%
10%
15.00%
8%
6% 10.00%
4%
5.00%
2%
0% 0.00%
0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% 24% 28% 32% 36% 40% 44% 48% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% 24% 28% 32% 36% 40% 44% 48%
Portfolio Loss (%)
Portfolio Loss (%)
60.00%
50.00%
225
Probability
Equity
40.00% Mezzanine*
30.00% 150 Senior
20.00%
75
10.00%
0.00% 0.00%
0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% 24% 28% 32% 36% 40% 44% 48% - Low - High
Portfolio Loss (%) Overlap
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Global Markets Training
Collateralised Debt Obligations Copyright 2004 Deutsche Bank@
CMCDO’s
The premium of a CMCDS in the first year is X% of the 5 year spot CDS spread,
subsequent premiums are reset at a pre-determined frequency (quarterly, semi-
annually), to X% of the then spot 5 year spread.
Selling CMCDS protection provides spread income plus the upside to spread
widening/curve steepening (whilst still taking default risk ie long credit) – the best
analogy is fixed bonds versus FRN’s, CDS versus CMCDS.
CMCDS should be used when spreads are tight, there are flat curves and vol is low
ie Now !
CMCDS generally provide higher spread income than short-dated risk and lower MTM
volatility compared to a plain vanilla CDS. Note that the maturity of the contract and the
maturity of the CMCDS reference rate need not be the same.
CMCDO’s have an underlying reference pool of CMCDS, and the notes provide
investors with a floating credit spread product to allow them to express spread widening
views. Investors get higher spreads as CMCDS spreads widen, but greater structural
complexity and lower liquidity. For mezzanine and senior tranches any spread widening
is likely to outweigh the reduction in MTM due to increased default risk.
Recommended Reading :
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Global Markets Training
Collateralised Debt Obligations Copyright 2004 Deutsche Bank@
☺
That’s the end of the session (at last !) You should now :
Understand how cash flow and market value CDO’s are structured
Be aware of the credit enhancements for cash flow and market value CDO’s
This publication is for internal use only by Deutsche Bank Global Markets employees. The
material (including formulae and spreadsheets) is provided for education purposes only and
should under no circumstances be used for client pricing. Examples, case studies, exercises and
solutions may use simplifying assumptions that do not apply in practice, and may differ from
Deutsche Bank proprietary models actually used. The publication is provided to you solely for
information purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of
any financial instrument or product. The information contained herein has been obtained from
sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be
guaranteed.
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Global Markets Training