You are on page 1of 4

MARKET WRAP: WEEK ENDED 9 SEPTEMBER11

Bursa Securities vs Public Mutuals performance*


FBM KLCI FBMS Shariah MSCI FEXJ# MSCI World# Local Funds PSF 0.6169 0.6190 PGF 0.4775 0.4851 PIX 0.7040 0.7034 PIF 0.5654 0.5658 PAGF 0.6384 0.6492 PRSF 0.6032 0.6058 PBF 0.6733 0.6853 P SmallCap 0.6745 0.6824 PEF 0.2973 0.3019 PFSF 0.2565 0.2569 PDSF 0.2707 0.2710 PSSF 0.2928 0.2931 PSA30F 0.3207 0.3218 POGF 0.2655 0.2655 PBBF 0.7876 0.7863 PBGF 0.7659 0.7679 Local Islamic Funds P Ittikal 0.8172 0.8284 PIEF 0.3215 0.3215 PIOF 0.2900 0.2919 PIBF 0.2793 0.2793 PIDF 0.3388 0.3395 PISSF 0.2924 0.2923 PISTF 0.2879 0.2895 PIOGF 0.2728 0.2734 PISEF 0.3465 0.3458 PIA40GF 0.2499 0.2490 PITGF 0.2501 0.2497 PBIEF 0.2362 0.2362 Foreign Funds PFES 0.2291 0.2383 PRSEC 0.2000 0.2078 PGSF 0.1680 0.1696 PFEDF 0.2276 0.2304 PFEBF 0.2033 0.2046 PGBF 0.1975 0.1987 PCSF 0.1669 0.1715 PFEPRF 0.2287 0.2279 PSEASF 0.2698 0.2695 PFECTF 0.2541 0.2542 PCTF 0.2056 0.2069 PFETIF 0.2882 0.2967 PNREF 0.2341 0.2418 PAUEF 0.2463 0.2480 PFA30F 0.2390 0.2416 PINDOSF 0.2697 0.2624^ PBAEF 0.2047 0.2130 PBADF 0.2611 0.2606 PBEPEF 0.1845 0.1877 PBCPEF 0.1570 0.1587 PBCAEF 0.2356 0.2428 PBCAUEF 0.1889 0.1964 PBSGA30EF 0.2453 0.2468 PBAPENTF 0.2199 0.2230 PBAREIF 0.2560 0.2551 PBADBF 0.3086 0.3101 PBINDOBF 0.2609 0.2554^ PSGEF 0.2381 0.2394 Foreign Islamic Funds PAIF 0.2496 0.2514 PIADF 0.2229 0.2227 PIABF 0.2092 0.2098 PCIF 0.1767 0.1803 PIALEF 0.2337 0.2360 PBIAEF 0.1992 0.2006 PBIASSF 0.1621 0.1630 Capital Protected Funds PCPSPF 1.1161 1.1168 PBCPRF 1.1098 1.1105 # *Buying Price, in USD ^NAV as at 26 Aug11. Non Business day from 29 Aug11 to 2 Adjusted for distribution 9 Sept'11 1,469.12 9,768.93 469.88 291.98 2 Sept'11 1,474.09 9,770.87 480.87 302.19 % chng -0.3 - 0.02 -2.3 -3.4 -0.3 -1.6 +0.1 -0.1 -1.7 -0.4 -1.8 -1.2 -1.5 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.00 +0.2 -0.3 -1.4 0.00 -0.7 0.0 -0.2 +0.03 -0.6 -0.2 +0.2 +0.4 +0.2 0.00 -3.9 -3.8 -0.9 -1.2 -0.6 -0.6 -2.7 +0.4 +0.1 -0.04 -0.6 -2.9 -3.2 -0.7 -1.1 +2.8 -3.9 +0.2 -1.7 -1.1 -3.0 -3.8 -0.6 -1.4 +0.4 -0.5 +2.1 -0.5 -0.7 +0.1 -0.3 -2.0 -1.0 -0.7 -0.6 -0.1 -0.1 Sept11.

WEEKLY HIGHLIGHTS The FBM KLCI moved in a trading range and closed at 1,469.1 points to register a loss of 0.3% for the week. Most regional markets sustained losses on continued uncertainty in policy makers ability to resolve the European sovereign debt crisis. Looking ahead, the performance of the local and regional markets will depend on the developments of the sovereign debt issues in the U.S. and European markets. STOCKMARKET COMMENTARY Declines in global and regional markets caused the FBM KLCI Index to move in a trading range for the week. The index subsequently closed at 1,469.1 points to register a loss of 0.3% for the week. Average daily trading volume increased to 0.8bil from 0.6bil over the week while daily turnover in value terms decreased to RM1.4bil from RM1.5bil over the week. Most regional markets sustained losses on continued uncertainty in policy makers ability to resolve the European sovereign debt crisis. North Asian markets such as Hong Kong, China H shares, Japan and South Korea registered losses ranging between 1.7% to 2.9%. On Wall Street, the Dow declined as investors remained sidelined on the back of continued weakness in the labour market. The Dow closed at 10,992 points to register a loss of 2.2% for the week. The Nasdaq was down by 0.5% to 2,468 points over the same period.

In the U.S., macroeconomic variables were mixed with export growth strengthening to 15.1% in July from 13.5% in June on higher shipments of capital goods and automobiles. Meanwhile, import growth increased to 13.6% from 12.7% over the same period. As imports grew by a wider margin than exports, the trade deficit for the first seven months of 2011 rose by 13.0% to US$329.8 billion compared to US$291.7 billion in the same period last year. However, the initial jobless claims remained high at 414,000 claims for the week ended 2nd September 2011 compared to 412,000 jobless claims in the preceding week. On the regional front, Chinas inflation rate edged down to 6.2% in August compared to 6.5% in July on lower food prices, which eased to 13.4% from 14.8% over the same period. Looking ahead, Chinas inflation rate is expected to ease to 5.1% in 2H2011 from 5.4% in 1H2011. Oil prices registered a weekly gain of 0.9% and closed at US$87.24/brl following a decrease in U.S. oil inventories. On the local front, Malaysias export growth slowed to 7.1% in July from 9.6% in June mainly due to a decline in exports of electrical and electronics products. Meanwhile, import growth eased to 2.9% from 6.9% over the same period. As imports outpaced exports, the cumulative trade surplus for the first seven months of 2011 narrowed by 1.1% to RM68.6 billion compared to RM69.4 billion in the same period last year. Industrial production contracted by 0.6% in July compared to an increase of 1.3% in June due to a decline in mining output and a slowdown in manufacturing activities. On a weekly basis, the Ringgit weakened by 1.6% against the US$ to close at RM3.018 while on a-year-to-date basis the Ringgit strengthened by 1.4% against the greenback. Looking ahead, investors will continue to monitor the outlook for the U.S. and global economies in the year ahead. In developed markets, fiscal stimulus policies to boost growth will be constrained by the need to contain elevated fiscal deficits. Meanwhile,
2

low interest rate policies are less effective in a period of household deleveraging. At the KLCIs closing level of 1,469.12 points on 9th September 2011, the local stock market is trading at a prospective P/E of 15.9x on 2011 earnings, which is below the markets 10-year average P/E ratio of 16.7x. The local market is supported by a gross dividend yield of about 3.9% which is higher than the 10-year average of 3.6% and exceeds the 12-month fixed deposit rate of 3.15%.
Other Markets Performance 9 Sept'11 2 Sept'11 Dow Jones 10,992 11,240 Nasdaq 2,468 2,480 TOPIX 756 770 SH Comp 2,498 2,528 China*, H share 10,469 10,664 MSCI China 5,815 5,964 Hong Kong 19,867 20,213 Taiwan 7,611 7,757 South Korea 1,813 1,868 Singapore 2,825 2,843 Thailand 1,062 1,065 Indonesia 3,999 3,842^
* Hang Seng China Enterprises Index
^ Index as at 26 Aug11

% chng -2.2 -0.5 -1.8 -1.2 -1.8 -2.5 -1.7 -1.9 -2.9 -0.6 -0.3 +4.1

Bursa Securities Market Valuations^ 9 Sept'11 2 Sept'11 10 yr ave* FBM KLCI 1,469.12 1,474.09 PER'11(x) 15.90 16.66 15.96 Price/NTA(x) 4.43 2.52 4.36 3mth InterBk 3.27% 3.27% 3.12% 12mth Fix Dep, % 3.15% 3.15% *2001-2010 average ^PMB In-House Statistics

Malaysias Economic Snapshot 2009 GDP growth, % -1.7 Inflation, % 0.6


F=forecast

2010 7.2 1.7

2011F 4.7 3.5

Bursa Securities 10 year P/E Ratio


30 25
P/E Ratio (x)

9 Sept '11 P/E on 2011 earnings: 15.9x

20 15 Average: 16.7x 10 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

BOND MARKET REVIEW: FORTNIGHT ENDED 9 SEPTEMBER11


Public Mutual's Bond Funds Performance 9 Sept'11 26 Aug'11 % chng P BOND 0.9854 0.9804 +0.5 PI BOND 1.0869 1.0830 +0.4 PIN BOND 1.0229 1.0201 +0.3 PEBF 1.0376 1.0335 +0.4 PSBF 1.0240 1.0208 +0.3 PIEBF 1.0984 1.0929 +0.5 PISBF 1.0208 1.0179 +0.3 PIINCOME 1.0341 1.0318 +0.2 PBFI 1.0686 1.0634 +0.5 PBIBF 1.1605 1.1562 +0.4 PBBMTN1 1.0338 1.0290 +0.5 PBINFBF 1.0528 1.0500 +0.3 PIINFBF 1.0505 1.0467 +0.4 PSTBF 1.0525 1.0494 +0.3 PISTBF 1.0502 1.0470 +0.3 PSKF 1.0058 1.0019 +0.4 Public Mutual's Money Market Funds Performance 9 Sept'11 26 Aug'11 % chng PMMF 1.0010 0.9999 +0.1 PIMMF 1.0152 1.0140 +0.1 PBCMF 1.0080 1.0069 +0.1 PBCPF 1.0017 1.0006^^ +0.1 PBICMF 1.0041 1.0030 +0.1 PBICPF 1.0036 1.0024^^ +0.1
^^ Adjusted for distribution.

BOND MARKET COMMENTARY For the fortnight ended 9th September 2011, the U.S. Treasury market strengthened as renewed concerns over the Eurozone debt crisis boosted investors demand for safehaven U.S. government bonds. The 10-year Treasury yield fell by 27 basis points (bps) to a 49-year low of 1.92% over the fortnight while the 3 and 5-year Treasury yields fell by 3 bps and 14 bps to 0.29% and 0.80% respectively over the same period. The Malaysian Government Securities (MGS) market closed firmer as sentiment was lifted by Bank Negaras decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.00% on 8th September 2011. The 3, 5 and 10-year MGS yields declined by between 7 bps and 13 bps to 3.02%, 3.26% and 3.57% respectively over the fortnight. The local corporate bond market generally strengthened amidst strong buying interest. The 3, 5 and 10-year AAA corporate bond yields declined by 8 bps each to 3.79%, 4.05% and 4.57% respectively over the fortnight. In the money market, the spread of the 3month Kuala Lumpur Interbank Offer Rate (KLIBOR) over the yield of the 3-month U.S. Treasury bill narrowed marginally to 326 bps from 328 bps a fortnight ago as the 3-month U.S. Treasury bill increased by 2 bps to 0.01% while the 3-month KLIBOR remained unchanged at 3.27% over the same period. Looking ahead, the U.S. Treasury bond prices may experience some volatility in the medium term due to renewed concerns over the outlook for global economic conditions and the stability of the U.S. dollar. On the domestic front, the MGS market is expected to remain supported amidst renewed concerns over the economic growth in the near-term.

Change in Interest Rates & Bond Yields 9 Sept'11 26 Aug'11 3 Month Interest Rates KLIBOR 3.27 3.27 U.S. T Bill 0.01 -0.01 3 Year 'AAA'Corp. 3.79 3.87 MGS 3.02 3.15 U.S. T Note 0.29 0.32 5 Year AAA'Corp. 4.05 4.13 MGS 3.26 3.38 U.S. T Note 0.80 0.94 10 Year 'AAA'Corp. 4.57 4.65 MGS 3.57 3.64 U.S. T Bond 1.92 2.19
*in basis points
6 10 Years MGS MGS Yield

Chng* +2.0 -8.0 -13.0 -3.0 -8.0 -12.0 -14.0 -8.0 -7.0 -27.0

3 Years M GS 2
J an03 Sep - M ay03 04 J an05 Sep - M ay05 06 J an07 Sep - M ay07 08 J an09 Sep - M ay09 10 J an11 Sep 11

6 5 4 3 2 1
J an03 Sep 03 M ay04 J an05

US Treas ury Bond Yield

10 Years US T Bond
Sep 05 M ay06 J an07 Sep 07 M ay08 J an09 Sep - M ay09 10 J an11 Sep 11

You are advised to read and understand the contents of the Master Prospectus of Public Series of Funds dated 30th April 2011 and expires on 29th April 2012, Master Prospectus of Public Series of Shariah-Based Funds dated 30th April 2011 and expires on 29th April 2012, Master Prospectus of PB Series of Funds dated 30th April 2011 and expires on 29th April 2012, Information Memorandum of PB Cash Plus Fund and PB Islamic Cash Plus Fund dated 1st March 2010, Prospectus of Public Capital Protected Select Portfolio Fund dated 29th July 2008 and expires on 11th September 2008, Prospectus of PB Capital Protected Resources Fund dated 20th August 2008 and expires on 3rd October 2008, Information Memorandum of PBB MTN Fund 1 dated 10th November 2009 and expires on 24th December 2009, Prospectus of Public Singapore Equity Fund dated 7th June 2011 and expires on 29th April 2012 and Prospectus of Public Islamic Treasures Growth Fund and Public Sukuk Fund dated 19th July 2011 and expires on 29th April 2012. These prospectus have been registered with the Securities Commission who takes no responsibility for their contents, and neither should their registration be interpreted to mean that the Commission recommends the investment. You should note that there are fees and charges involved; and that the prices of units and distribution payable, if any, may go down as well as up. Applications to purchase must come in the form of a duly completed application form referred to in and accompanying the prospectus. A copy of the prospectus can be obtained from your attending agent, corporate representative or nearest Public Mutual Office. Past performance should not be taken as an indication of future performance.

Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A)

Block B, Sri Damansara Business Park, Persiaran Industri, Bandar Sri Damansara, 52200 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. P.O. Box 10045, 50700 Kuala Lumpur Tel: 03-62796800 Fax: 603-62779800 Website:http://www.publicmutual.com.my

You might also like