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CONTENTS Nifty
Opening Closing
NSE
Adv/Dec Turnover
NSE Nifty
Debt
10-Year G-Sec Curve
Debt market
Gilts prices rose on Friday supported by a
larger-than-expected drop in inflation to
its lowest in 34 months and a purchase
of long dated securities by a cash rich
insurance company. Annual WPI rose
3.13% in the week ended Aug.13, down
from the previous week's 3.35%, mainly
Bulk deals
due to a fall in oilseeds, minerals and
Company Weight. Avg. Traded Acquirer
price (Rs.) quantity manufactured product prices and last
Buy year's high base effect. The data was lower
S Kumars 44.00 10000000 HSBC Global Invt. than the 3.24% forecast in a Reuter’s poll.
Flex Ind. 93.11 899071 Composite Sec. US treasury debt yields fell on expectations
India Cements 103.38 750000 SBIMF that rising gasoline costs will finally force
GHCL 101.98 656704 Tanvi Fincap US consumers to cut back spending,
Melstar Info 27.08 516038 Ankita Vishal Shah denting economic performance. The
Sell central bank sold Rs.60 bn of stabilisation
Matrix Labs 180.65 1200000 BNP Paribas bonds on Thursday to suck out excess
Videocon Intl. 75.01 454400 Prudential ICICI
cash in the banking system, estimated at
Federal Bank 173.70 390000 JM Financial MF
about Rs. 300 bn. Chief economic adviser,
Cinevistaas Ltd 61.16 323098 Ankita Vishal Shah
Ashok Lahiri, said on Friday that he
McDowell 378.58 304955 Ghalla Bhansali
Mid-day 106.59 264279 Indus Portfolio
expected the "virtuous state" of low
inflation to continue for some time,
Top Gainers
provided support to the market.
Company 25 Aug. 19 Aug. %Change
Visualsoft 180.20 155.95 15.55 Long term technicals
Whirlpool 31.25 27.25 14.68
MRF 3180.95 2817.85 12.89 Shyam Telecom
H C L Infosys 261.15 239.05 9.24
Hind Inks Res 642.90 608.35 5.68
CMP: 105.20
Top Losers The stock gained by more than 11% on Friday
Company 25 Aug. 19 Aug. %Change to close at a 52 week high level. The stock has
Kotak Mah.Finance 203.00 487.25 -58.34 been facing strong resistance around 100 levels
Saregama 175.75 199.35 -11.84 and has retraced back from these levels in the
HMT 71.90 79.90 -10.01 past. However, it has managed to close above
Geometric Soft 103.95 115.30 -9.84
this level supported with very good volumes.
Indusind Bk 74.75 82.80 -9.72
The MACD has also made a bullish crossover
FII Invt (Rs.cr) MF (Rs.cr) on the daily as well as the weekly charts
Date Purchases Sales Purchases Sales
confirming the uptrend. Hence the stock might
19-Aug 920.70 873.50 252.83 285.79
see further upsides in the coming days.
22-Aug 959.20 1036.30 301.60 230.87
Investors may buy this stock if it is able to sustain above 100 levels for medium term targets of 124-
23-Aug 751.50 742.10 329.96 234.04
126. If the stock manages to move past 126 levels then it would attempt 140 levels in the medium
24-Aug 841.10 780.50 442.15 271.37
25-Aug 875.40 985.90 609.82 452.80
term and around 220-240 levels in the long term. A stop loss is advised below 90 levels.
Total 4347.90 4418.30 1936.36 1474.87 KBB weekly portfolio monitor
Scrip Action Entry Stop Loss Target No. of Shares Profit/Loss Return Remark
TA - Target achieved India Cement Buy 105-108 102.50 118, 125 2303 -9,211.34 -3.76% SLT
Sterlite Optical Buy 113-116 108.50 125-127 2133 21,326.26 8.70% TA
SLT - Stop loss triggered
Hind. Sanitary Buy 163-165 161.20 173-175 - - - NI
CMP - Closing price as on last Navneet Pub Buy 285-288 281.50 296-300 852 10,218.83 4.17% TA
trading day Total 22,333.75
NI - Not initiated Balance on inception Balance last week Balance current week Abs. returns Abs. returns since
(01- Jan- 05) (22-Aug-05) (26-Aug-05) WoW (%) inception (%)
5,00,000 735,756 758,090 3.04% 51.62%
Derivatives
Rs.cr Week Ended Week Ended % age
Derivatives (per day date) 25 Aug. (4 Days) 19 Aug (4 Days) Change
Index Futures - Avg Traded Value 7180.50 4681.50 53.38
Nifty witnessed negative bias throughout the
Index Options - Avg Traded Value 1476.25 1020.00 44.73
week after it opened on a negative note in Stock Futures - Avg Traded Value 13235.00 8884.50 48.97
Monday’s trade. It displayed high degree of Stock Options - Avg Traded Value 637.25 561.75 13.44
volatility and choppiness all through the week Total Average Turnover 22529.00 12118.20 85.91
due to the settlement of August contracts. This
expiry has seen a healthy rollover of around Strategy report around 2320-2330 levels. Based on the above
82% for the entire derivatives market. Most of outlook, a rangebound strategy is suggested
the rollover was visible in the frontline stocks. Nifty…in a range to the investors.
Select midcap stocks not only showed 100%
After touching historical highs in August, Nifty In such a scenario investors are advised a ‘Short
rollover but also added fresh positions in
witnessed correction towards expiry. Profit Strangle’;
September series. Nifty futures alone have
booking and slow down in FII investments l Sell ONE Sept. 2400 Call @ 22.00 - 24.00;
witnessed a 92% rollover but a high discount
did not allow the market to sustain at higher and
of 27 points indicates heavy rollover of short
levels. Fundamentally too with the Q1 results l Sell ONE Sept. 2300 Put @ 43.00 - 45.00
positions. The fluctuations in the implied
season getting over, there is no major positive
volatility of both the options indicates a The strategy will breakeven at 2467 (upper
trigger in the market. Nifty has seen heavy
skeptical view on the markets and the decline BEP) and 2233 (lower BEP). Beyond the break
rollover of close to 92%. High negative basis
even points the strategy will incur losses and
Put - Call Ratio (Nifty) of 27 points shows that the rollover has been
hence investors are advised to hold the
on the short side. On the other hand, most
positions with USL of 2470 and LSL at 2230.
of the heavyweights and select midcaps have
seen healthy rollover which is mostly on the The suggested time-frame is till expiry. The
positive side as indicated in their high positivetarget return from the strategy is the entire
cost of carry. With these mixed positions, the premium received on selling the options i.e.
markets seem to have entered a consolidation Rs.6700 [(23+44)*100] where100 is the lot size
phase where the trading would be marked by of Nifty. The strategy is a Tier II strategy with
Open Interest (Nifty)
predominantly range bound movement. a margin requirement of approx. Rs.47,762
Indices are unlikely to continue the rally (2*23,881) on selling two options.
beyond the resistance levels of 2380-2390. On For further details please contact Manasa
the lower side Nifty is likely to take support at Choudary B at manasa@karvy.com
Top 5 stock options as on Aug. 19, 2005
Top Five Futures Contracts as on Aug. 26, 2005 Name Exp. Strike Type Cont. Value
Name Exp. Date Cont. Value (Rs.cr.) (Rs.cr.)
RIL 29Sep05 15381 651.95 ONGC 29Sep05 960.00 PA 800 23.67
in the implied volatility of the call options TCS 29Sep05 14382 489.29 Tisco 29Sep05 380.00 CA 738 19.78
clearly indicated the motive of benefiting from Tisco 29Sep05 13932 366.67 RIL 29Sep05 700.00 CA 637 27.65
VSNL 29Sep05 9590 375.73 Tisco 29Sep05 380.00 PA 617 16.17
the time decay by writing (selling) higher level
Satyam 29Sep05 9549 290.71 Tisco 29Sep05 390.00 CA 611 16.59
calls.
Investment Strategies
Nifty is expected to hover around in the range Scrip Recommended Action SL BEP Target Time Frame
of 2320-2390 levels for the coming week. It IPCL Sell ONE Sept 180 Call @ 7.50-8.50 and USL- 193 UBEP-192 Premiums Expiry
might find a strong support at around 2320 Sell ONE Sept 180 Put @ 3.50-4.50 LSL- 167 LBEP-168 Received
and 2300 levels. Traders are advised to trade Nifty Buy 2300 Put @ 38.00-40.00 - 2267 58-60 10-15 Days
long only if Nifty sustains above 2340 levels MTNL Sell ONE Sept 130 Call @ 2.50-3.50 and USL- 138 UBEP-137 Premiums Expiry
for targets of 2365 and 2380 levels. However, Sell ONE Sept 120 Put @ 4.00-5.00 LSL- 112 LBEP-113 Received
if Nifty fails to hold 2340 levels, traders can Infosys Sell ONE Sept 2310 Call @ 50-53 and USL- 2460 UBEP-2454 Premiums Expiry
Sell ONE Sept 2310 Put @ 89-91 LSL- 2160 LBEP-2166 Received
trade short for lower support levels.
Short Term Strategies
Scrip Recommended Action CMP Entry Stop Loss Target Time Frame Reverse Strategy Stop Loss Target
Bank of India Buy Sept. Futures 123.95 122-124 120.90 128, 130 3-4 Days Not Applicable - -
NDTV Buy Sept. Futures 230.55 228-232 226.05 238, 244 4-5 Days Not Applicable - -
Maruti Buy Sept. Futures 474.75 469.60 471-475 482, 490 3-4 Days Not Applicable - -
Satyam Buy Sept. Futures 508.35 506-509 504.70 515, 524 4-5 Days Not Applicable - -
Cent. Text. Buy Sept. Futures 306.80 305-308 302.60 315, 320 4-5 Days Not Applicable - -
Derivatives
points during the June contract which
Our research could have been effectively utilised for
Unwinding the arbitrage arbitraging. This was a forwards arbitrage
Arbitrage is defined as the simultaneous where arbitrageurs bought the stock and
purchase and sale of an asset or different sold futures. As the contract approached
instruments on the same asset or expiry, unwinding of arbitrage led to
different assets, to profit from a decline in the spot prices while the futures
temporary differential in pricing. There prices soared. A similar situation was
is no time lag between buy and sell legs observed in the July contracts too where
of the contract resulting in an immediate the basis was abnormal on many
‘riskless, profit’. occasions. The spot price too declined
sharply towards the expiry due to
The futures prices are derived from spot
unwinding.
values and CoC binds futures to the
underlying asset. When the two go out Jindal Steel- In June, the contract opened
of sync, arbitrage arises. An arbitrage with a very high positive basis of 13 points
opportunity is said to exist when the and hovered in the range of 9-12 points
basis and spot show a wide gap in their for many trading sessions, thereby
values. (i.e. spot is increasing and basis providing possible arbitrage
is decreasing or vice versa.). The gap is opportunities. On expiry the spot
quantified in terms of a 2% or more displayed tremendous volatility, by
difference in the spot and futures. making a high of 895 and a low of 830.
This price fluctuation is a likely evidence
This study is an attempt to study the
of arbitrage unwinding i.e. selling in cash
potential arbitrage that existed during a
and buying in futures. Similarly, the July
given month and study price behaviour
contracts showed a negative basis of as
of stocks which presented arbitrage
high as 11-12 points on some occasions Initial value as on July 29 = 499674.50
opportunities close to the expiration of
which was partly due to dividend. Stock Amount Profit/ Return Remarks
contract. Few stocks were studied during
However, the dividend adjusted basis was Invested Loss
April to July 2005 along with their basis/
also abnormal which could have led to W1 Tisco 85893 5152 6.00 Closed
CoC to track likely arbitrage patterns and
arbitrage between cash and futures (selling W1 Reliance 73615 5174 7.03 Closed
likely impact on the spot prices towards
stock and buying futures). Last two days W1 ONGC 71844 1922 2.68 Closed
the close of the contract. Such price
towards expiry saw the price fluctuating W2 Tata Motors 68974 -2898 -4.20 Closed
movements could be utilised for short
from 970 to 1020 levels, implying likely W2 Nifty 4220 1860 44.08 Closed
term gains towards expiry. We are citing
buying in the cash and unwinding of the W3 Gail 116547 -11049 -9.48 Closed
here the examples of two stocks from
arbitrage positions. W3 Tisco 4194 -4302 -102.58 Closed
our sample of study.
The study showed such price patterns for W3 Nifty 42782 4629 10.82 Closed
Wockhardt Pharma- Good arbitrage
many stocks in our sample which W3 Satyam 54759 -3700 -6.76 Closed
opportunities existed during the month
suggested early discovery of such arbitrage W4 Tisco 4862 -4862 -100.00 Closed
of May and June where the basis turned
opportunities could be effectively utilised W4 Satyam 6156 -6156 -100.00 Closed
abnormally high at many occasions
for trading gains towards the expiry. 533846 -14230 -2.67
during the month. A high basis of 4-6
Final Value as at Aug 26 : Rs.485444.50
Derivatives portfolio monitor NI=Not initiated
Scrip Action Entry Stop Loss Target Reverse Stop Loss Target Margin Profit/Loss Return (%)
Chennai Petro Buy Aug Fut 205-208 203.40 212, 216 NA - - - - NI
Syndicate Bank Sell Aug Fut 72-74 75.20 70, 68 NA - - 716376 136800 19.10
M&M Buy Aug Fut 708-712 704.40 720, 736 NA - - 834408 -42000 -5.03
Tisco Sell Aug Fut Below 400 403.60 392, 387 App 399.30 408, 414 517224 105300 20.36
Hindalco Sell Aug Fut Below 1395 1406.75 1380, 1365 NA - - 398196 54000 13.56
2466204 254100
Balance on inception Balance last week Balance current week Abs. returns WoW (%) Abs. returns since
(01- Jan- 05) (22-Aug-05) (26-Aug-05) inception (%)
5,00,000 25,18,957 27,73,057 8.33 454.61%
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