TABLE OF CONTENT

Abbreviations 4

Researched districts 5

PART I. OBJECTIVES AND RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 6

PART II. RESEARCH FINDINGS 8

Chapter II.1: Survey Results in Tajikistan 9
Chapter II.2: Survey Results in Kyrgyzstan 15

PART III. NATIONAL DATA ON CLIMATE CHANGE IN TAJIKISTAN 21

Chapter III.1: Climate Change in Tajikistan and Forecast Assessment 21
Chapter III.2: Tajikistan’s Contribution to Global Warming 23
Chapter III.3: National Action Plan to Address the Consequences of Climate 25
Change
Chapter III.4: Adaptation Strategy 25
Chapter III.5: Strategy to Reduce Greenhouse Gases Emissions 27

PART IV. PRIORITIES OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION POLICY AND 29

MEASURES ON CLIMATE CHANGE IN TAJIKISTAN
Chapter IV.1: Legislative Mechanisms 29
Chapter IV.2: Programme and Strategy 30
Chapter IV.3: Progress on Tajikistan’s Commitments to the UN Framework 30
Convention on Climate Change

PART V. NATIONAL DATA ON CLIMATE CHANGE IN KYRGYZSTAN 31

Chapter V.1: Climate Change in Kyrgyzstan and Forecast Assessment 31
Chapter V.2: Kyrgyzstan’s Contribution to Global Warming 32
Chapter V.3: Strategy to Mitigate Climate Change 32

PART VI. POLICY PRIORITIES AND MEASURES TO ADDRESS CLIMATE 33

CHANGE IN KYRGYZSTAN

PART VII. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 34

Bibliography 37

3
 ABBREVIATIONS

CAREC Central Asia Regional Ecological Center

GBP Great Britain Pound
GEF Global Environmental Facility
GHG Greenhouse Gases
ICCO Interchurch Organisation for Cooperation and
Development
ITQ Issue Topicality Quotient
NAP National Action Plan
NGO Non-Governmental Organisation
PFC Perfluorcarbon
TV Television
UN United Nations
UNDP United Nations Development Programme
UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change
USD United States Dollar
WECF Women of Europe for a Common Future
YEC Youth Ecological Centre

4
 RESEARCHED DISTRICTS
From March to May 2007 Youth Ecological
Centre of Tajikistan (YEC) jointly with NGO
“For Earth” and NGO “Biom” (Kyrgyzstan)
conducted research at the community level
on public perceptions of climate change. The
project was supported by the Act Central
Asia consortium, whose members are
Christian Aid, DanChurchAid, ICCO and
Norwegian Church Aid.
11 separate surveys were conducted in all
(see map above): six in Tajikistan, in the rural
rayons [districts] of Khatlon oblast [region]
(Shaartuz, Kabadiyon, Bishkent), Soghd
(Spetamen and Jabar Rasulov districts),
Pamir (Rushan and Ishkashim), and five in
Kyrgyzstan (Chuy, Narin, and Issyk-kul
regions). The respondents were inhabitants
for whom agriculture is the main source of
income. A total of 158 people were surveyed,
and more than 500 people participated in the
discussions.
5
Researched districts
The research revealed the impact of climate
change on poverty. Data was collected on
particular observations of climate change for
the last 5 years and its impact on living
standards, health, the ecosystem,
agriculture, profit levels and employment. We
observed a vulnerability of communities to
climate change.
The research was accompanied by
community education, in the form of
seminars and discussions, on global and
regional climate change, the causes of
climate change and the effects on glaciers,
water resources, pasture land, agriculture,
health and infrastructure. We also studied
the national data of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan
in relation to climate change.
The data and community feedback will assist
in developing domestic strategies for climate
change adaptation.
 OBJECTIVES AND RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
Part I. Objectives
and research
methodology
Hamzoobod village, Nosyri Husrav district, Tajikistan
The main objectives of the research were to
explore the relationship of rural communities
to climate change matters, understand the
social and economic situation of
communities, and conduct data collection
and analysis of the policies of State
institutions and international organizations on
climate change in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.
Objectives:
1. Explore the perceptions of climate
change held by inhabitants of rural
communities;
2. Review State policy for climate
change mitigation in the Republics of
Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan;
3. Study the various opportunities for
local communities to access to information
on climate change matters;
4. Develop recommendations on climate
change mitigation and adaptation at the
community level.
Research Methodology
The process of research comprised the
following steps:
1. Inhabitants' Survey. Inhabitants
were given a written questionnaire to
respond to (see attached questionnaire in
Appendix I). Interviewers and assistants
helped respondents to fill in the forms by
discussing each question.
6
The questions (more than 20) were formed
intofour groups:
- Climate change issues. What facts of
climate change have you seen in your district
in the last 5 years?
- Economic consequences of climate
change;
- Social consequences of climate
change;
- Public awareness of climate change.
2. Community Education. Communities
were provided with information on global and
regional aspects of climate change
challenges (e.g. causes and impacts of
glacier ice, water resources, pasture land,
agriculture, health and infrastructure). During
the discussions at community meetings we
screened a film about climate change
(CAREC-2005), adapted and translated into
Tajik by NGO “For Earth”. Presentations
were given by the Youth Ecological Centre of
Tajikistan (YEC) and NGO “Biom” on the
global and regional climate change context.
3. General Discussion. This followed
stage two and focused on local and global
climate change issues. The average size of
the group was 20 participants. Case-studies
were collected both at this stage and during
stage four.
4. In-depth Interviews and Data
Collection. This stage was conducted
separately from the main meetings (stages
one to three). Interviews were held with key
 OBJECTIVES AND RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
informants, family groups and local
organisations (e.g. members of dehkan farms
and NGOs).
Data was collected on climate change
observations in the last 5 years and its
impacts on living standards, health, the
ecosystem, agriculture, profit levels and
employment.
This combined method of data collection was
necessary in view of the poor level of
education of the majority of respondents,
which meant they needed assistance to fill in
the questionnaire.
As part of the research we collected and
analysed national data from Tajikistan and
Kyrgyzstan on climate change issues.
National reports and action plans, as well as
strategies to reduce emissions and carry out
adaptation were also studied.
The research group comprised:
Yuri Skochilov, Director of Youth
?
Ecological Centre of Tajikistan, lead
researcher;
? Rahim Obidov, Coordinator of Youth
Ecological Centre of Tajikistan;
Discussion on Climate Change in Balykchy village,
Kyrgyzstan
7
? Timur Idrisov, NGO "For Earth",
Tajikistan;
? Anna Kirilenko, Co-ordinator of NGO
"Biom", Kyrgyzstan.
The researchers express their special thanks
to members of public associations, which
helped in interviewing, or made possible the
meetings with respondents or worked as
volunteers:
?Agency for Development Process
Support "Now", Khojent – Akmal Mirzaev;
?Feminine Centre "Hamdilon", Shartuz,
Tashburi Hotamova;
?PA "Madatgor", Nosyri-Khusrav district,
Hamza Boboev;
?Youth EcoCentre of Tajikistan, Risolat
Saidmuradova, Anton Rukhlov, Sergei
Vorsin;
?NGO "For Earth", Tajikistan, Bazarov
Faridun;
?NGO "Biom", Kyrgyzstan, Mihail
Yakovlev, Ilya Yakimchuk.
Acknowledgments
Key inputs in report development were
provided by Ben Hobbs - advocacy officer,
Christian Aid through extensive
consultations and comments. Researchers
also express their appreciation to him for the
contribution made in editing the English
version of the report.
Questionnaire in Shavkat village, Spetamen district,
Tajikistan
 RESEARCH FINDINGS

Part II.
Research
findings Participants of disscussion in Shavkat village,
Tajikistan

Profile of Respondents
Social and demographic characteristics of
the respondents
The majority of respondents were members
A total of 158 people were surveyed and
of dehkan farms or involved in farming, local
more than 300 people participated in
businessmen and employees of state and
discussions.
non-governmental organisations. We also
ensured there was a fair gender and age
In Tajikistan we surveyed the views of 94
balance amongst the respondents.
people, from follow regions [oblasts] and
districts [rayons]:
? Soghd region - 31 persons: 15 from
Students; 6
Jabar-Rasulov district and 16 from Spetamen
district; State
? Khatlon region - 32 persons: 17 from Unem ployed; 11
institutions; 32
Shartuz district and 15 from Nosyri Husrav International
district; NGO; 1
? Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous
NGO; 18
Oblast /Pamir region - 31 respondents: 14
from Khorog and Rushan, and 17 from
Ishkashim district. Farm econom y; Businessm en; 5
55
In Kyrgyzstan 64 people took part: 33 from
Chuy region (13 respondents from Bishkek, 7
State institutions NGO Businessm en
from Kant and 13 from Vinogradnoye), 15 Farm econom y International NGO Unem ployed
respondents from Narin region and 16 from Students
Issyk-Kul region (Balighi village).
Sex of respondents

31 76 82

Khatlon Male
32 31 Soghd Female
Age of respondents
Pam ir
Chuy
Narin 25%
16 33%
33 Issik-Kul 50 and m ore
15
30 -50
18-30

42%

8
 RESEARCH FINDINGS
What facts indicate climate change in the
last 5-6 years?
First of all, respondents were asked to
evaluate the evidence of climate change in
their own region and district. The survey
showed that a majority of respondents
observed unconventional temperature
variations and changes in precipitation.
However, they found difficulty in giving a full
picture for the whole period, just pointing to
the most striking climatic episodes,
connected with revenue impacts or natural
disasters.
Were there any unconventional changes
in precipitation or temperature?
The respondents from rural districts of Soghd
mentioned the decrease in subsoil waters in
2005, insufficient irrigation water and
difficulties with grazing. Farmers related this
to the unusually warm year and a decrease
in precipitation. Inhabitants of Shartuz and
Nosyri Husrav districts, in Khatlon, also said
that the year 2005 was the hottest for the last
five years: "In March 2005 in Nosyri Husrav
dust storms started (the so-called
"Afghanistan winds"); the heat became
intense from April and "burned" a big part of
the melon and gourd harvests. The cotton
harvest also sharply decreased ".
The inhabitants of Khatlon similarly pointed
to the unconventional, cold but snowless
winter of 2005 to 2006, and the sudden fall of
temperature and snow storm of February
2007.
Did not reply
No
Yes
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Num ber of respondents
Chapter II.1. Survey results in
Tajikistan
The inhabitants of Vrang kishlak of Ishkashim
district and kishlak Porshnev of Shugnan
district, both in Pamir, pointed to the unusual
snowfalls of October 2004, which are not
typical at this time in Badakhshan.
Were there any unconventional natural
disaster (drought, flood, mountain flash
flood, landslide, or drastic change in the
groundwater level)?
30
Num ber of respondents
25
20 Khatlon
15 Soghd
10
Pamir
5
0
Yes No Did not reply
Unconventional natural disasters were
noticed by the inhabitants of Khatlon and
Pamir. The inhabitants of Nosyri-Husrav,
Kabodiyon and Shartuz districts mentioned
that the reduction of groundwater began in
2005. In the years before then (2002 – 04) it
had been possible to get fresh water using a
manually-operated water pump at a depth of
5 to 6 metres, but by 2006 this depth had
increased to 8 - 11 metres.
The respondents noted that on May 2005 in
Shartuz district there had been a flash flood
from the Kafirnigan river; school No. 8 of
Sayod kishlak [village], a large area of cotton
fields and nearby roads were flooded.
Inhabitants of Khatlon (Shartuz, Kabodiyon,
and Nosyri-Husrav districts) referred to the
snow storm of February 26th 2007 as a
natural disaster. Two young shepherds died
Pam ir in Nosyri-Husrav (Tangirov Abdulhak and
Soghd
Omonov Muhamad), more than 10 people
Khatlon
got frostbite and other injuries and the roofs
of twenty-four houses in the Hamzoobod and
Kizylketmin villages of "Komsomol" jamoat
[sub-district authority] collapsed.
9
 RESEARCH FINDINGS
The inhabitants of Ishkashim district stated
that in the winter of 2005-2006 there was too
little snowfall but due to heavy showers, which
lasted several days, around 200 houses and
private land plots were damaged in the district.
In the words of Navruzshoev Kishvarsho, the
director of Pamir's hydro-meteorological
department: "In 2007 there were strong frosts
in Pamir that froze the Bartang river basin.
When the ice broke up, one block of ice fell
onto the turbine of the hydro-electric power
station "Pamir-1", having breached the
turbine's protective casing. As a result the
turbine box was damaged and completely
flooded".
Has the climate become worse, made
better or remained stable?
Remained
stable
Made better
Became
worse
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Number of respondents
This question in the questionnaire aimed to
capture the opinion of communes on climate
change dynamics. The votes of respondents
are divided by region.
Most respondents in Khatlon (26 persons)
said that the climate had worsened and
pointed to increased floods and natural
disasters, as well as to climate-related
income losses as evidence of this. The
inhabitants observed that the climate in the
last 5 years had become more sharply
continental: winters were colder and
summers hotter. A majority of respondents in
Soghd thought that the climate was stable
(21 persons), though they did speak about
the loss of income and out-migration due to
climatic changes.
As in Khatlon, most respondents in Pamir
pointed to the worsening of climate (14
persons).
Did the climatic conditions affect incomes
(e.g. increase/decrease of harvest and/or
cattle)?
Did not reply
Pam ir
Not affected Soghd
Khatlon
Affected
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Num ber of respondents
This question in the questionnaire was
designed to evaluate the vulnerability of
communes to climatic changes. The greatest
impact on inhabitants' incomes was in
Khatlon (28 persons) and Pamir (22
persons).
Respondents in Shartuz district mentioned
that since 2004 the vegetable cultivation in
private land plots had fallen because of the
Pamir reduced water supply. The year 2005 was
Soghd remembered in Shartuz, Kabodiyon and
Khatlon Nosyri-Husrav districts as the beginning of
the decline in the melon, gourd and cotton
harvests due to the “scorching” hot weather
and strong, dusty winds. The inhabitants said
that the last two winters (2005-06 and 2006-
07) were unusually cold and February 2007
had seen abnormal snowfall. According to
jamoat "Komsomol" data, the sudden snow
killed 2,600 livestock in Nosyri-Husrav
district.
Soghd respondents also pointed to the
difficulty in finding cattle pasture owing to the
reduced level of the river Oksu in Spetamen
district, which had started in 2005. Women
farmers (Zarina Oripova, Muhabat
Navruzova, and Usmonhucha Murodbakieva)
from "Shavkat" kishlak in Spetamen said that
the productivity of the harvest had fallen from
early 2005. For example, in 2005 the women
sowed wheat on three hectares of land but
got nothing, referring to the unusually hot
weather.
Burkhoni Saidbek, the farmer from this
kishlak, says: "From 2005 we started to
observe that the climate had changed. If in
2003 I had a good harvest of wheat and peas
10
 RESEARCH FINDINGS
from two hectares of land; and sold it on the
market at 10,000 TJ Somoni (1,400 GBP
equivalent), then by 2005 I didn't get such an
advantage from the land. After this I changed
to type of crop to onion and at the end of
2006 I got a good harvest from ten hectares
of land and successfully sold it at market".
The women farmers (Dona Omonkulova,
Salomat Dehkonova, Gulishanoy
Ubaidulloeva) from "Gulhona" kishlak in
Jabar-Rasulov district also talked of harvest
losses in 2005 and 2006 due to the unusually
warm weather.
Debasta kishlak in Pamir saw a fall in
productivity of 30% last year because of
climatic changes There has been very little
production of the "Shirinak" variety of sweet
melon for the last four years - Kurbonov
Kamchibek, a maths teacher from
Garmchashma in Ishkashim district of Pamir
thinks the crop is close to being lost
completely.
Heavy rains in the spring of 2006 caused the
postponement of the sowing campaign,
something that caused a 10% fall in
production in Ishkashim, according to Sheroz
Murodaliev, an "Agroinvestbank" accountant
from this area.
Jonbegim Jumahonova, a school teacher
from Ishkashim, planted six sack-loads of
seed potatoes at her private plot but at the
end of the season she had only collected
enough potatoes to fill three sacks. During
the October 2004 harvest snow caused 40%
of the wheat harvest to be lost, according to
Vafo Safarzoda, correspondent of the “Pamir
Mass Media” information centre.
Did climate change influence people's
health?
Did not reply
Pam ir
Was
Soghd
influenced
Khatlon
Was not
influenced
0 5 10 15 20
Num ber of respondents
11
In the opinion of representatives of women's
organisations in Khatlon, such as
"Hamdilon", "Hamroz" and "Nuravshon", the
level of infectious diseases (malaria, typhus,
hepatitis and tuberculosis) has increased in
Shartuz district since 2005. Tashburi
Hotamova, an employee of "Hamdilon", said
that 2005 is remembered as the year when
many people in the district suffered from high
blood pressure and heart disease linked with
the heat. Local authority employees in
Gulhona, in the Jabar-Rasulov district of
Soghd, stated that catarrhal diseases have
increased as a result of climatic changes.
Respondents from Pamir also mentioned a
rise in catarrhal diseases.
Was the information on climate change
and the adaptation needs of the
population sufficient?
5%
20%
Yes
No
Did not reply
75%
Most respondents (75%) believed that
information on climate change issues and
adaptation was insufficient. The main source
of information on climate issues is Russian
television.
Climate Impact Assessment
In order to examine in more detail the
assessment of respondents' replies, we
designed an “issue topicality quotient” (ITQ),
which shows the priority of each problem
relating to climate change.
The ITQ is calculated as follows:
ITQ = number of respondents citing
the problem ÷ total number of
respondents
 RESEARCH FINDINGS

The closer the ITQ to 1, the more topical an

issue is for the community; and conversely,
the closer the ITQ to 0, the less topical the
problem (Respondents not replying were not
taken into account).

The analysis of 94 questionnaires collected

in Khatlon, Soghd and Pamir is as follows:

Kyrgyz woman
filling the
questionare Survey participants from Balykchi, Kyrgyzstan

It is also possible to rank ITQs within each

region in order to show which problems are
most important in each region.

Issue Total # # citing # citing # citing ITQ in ITQ in ITQ in

responden problem problem problem Khatl Sogh Pamir
ts citing in in Soghd in Pamir on d (of
issue as a Khatlon (of (of total
problem in total total 31
questionn 32 31 respo
aire respo respo ndent
ndent ndent s)
s) s)
Unconvention 68 24 20 24 0.75 0.64 0.77
al changes in
precipitation &
temperature
Soil 26 11 1 14 0.34 0.03 0.45
deterioration
Natural 59 21 14 24 0.65 0.45 0.77
disaster
Drought 25 13 2 10 0.40 0.06 0.32
Harvest loss 54 21 11 22 0.65 0.35 0.75
Livestock loss 26 10 2 14 0.31 0.06 0.45
Reduced 22 4 2 16 0.12 0.06 0.52
income from
private plots
Employment 19 4 2 13 0.12 0.06 0.42
change
Migration 24 5 3 16 0.15 0.09 0.52
Conflict 18 6 0 12 0.18 0 0.32
Health threat 40 16 6 18 0.5 0.19 0.58

12
 RESEARCH FINDINGS

Issue ranking by region As the women farmers Zulfiya Ubaidulloeva

and Nafisa Mahmudova from Gulhona
Khatlon: jamoat of Jabar-Rasulov district, Soghd,
1 Unconventional changes in precipitation & 0.75 explained: "There are 560 families and 2,600
temperature inhabitants in our village (“mahalla”)
committee and all of us are engaged in
2 Harvest loss 0.65 agriculture. In 2005 quarrels began in our
2 Natural disaster 0.65 jamoat over water distribution to each
3 Health threat 0.5 family's land. Most of the harvest was “burnt"
4 Drought 0.4 when the summer heat came. This included
5 Soil deterioration 0.34 losses to the cotton harvest. At that time
people began to migrate to work in Russia in
6 Livestock loss 0.31 order to clear their debts".
7 Conflict 0.18
8 Migration 0.15 Many respondents in Nosyri-Husrav district
9 Employment change 0.12 (Khatlon) believe that the difficult climate
conditions in recent years, together with the
As we can see from the table results, the breakdown of the drainage system and
most topical issues relating to climate change quotas for cotton production, reduce incomes
in Khatlon were the following: 1.Changes in for each year.
precipitation/temperature; 2.Harvest loss and
The situation is aggravated by changes in
natural disaster (equal 2nd); and 4. Health
groundwater levels that are leading to soil
threat.
salinisation and a shortage of fresh and
irrigation water. Farmers are having to look
for jobs in other areas or go abroad to find
Soghd:
work.
1 Unconventional changes in precipitation & 0.64
temperature Migration connected to climate change was
th
2 Natural disaster 0.45 ranked in 9 place in Khatlon (ITQ = 0.15)
3 Harvest loss 0.35 and 5th place in Soghd (ITQ = 0.09) and
Pamir (ITQ = 0.52). As can be seen from the
4 Health threat 0.19
table, the overall topicality of issues was
5 Migration 0.09 highest in Pamir and lowest in Soghd.
6 Employment change 0.06
6 Reduced income from private plots 0.06
6 Drought 0.06
6 Livestock loss 0.06 Pamir:
7 Soil deterioration 0.03
8 Conflicts 0.00 1 Unconventional changes in precipitation & 0.77
temperature
The most topical issues concerning climate
change in Soghd were as follows: 1.Changes 1 Natural disaster 0.77
in precipitation/temperature; 2.Natural 2 Harvest loss 0.71
disaster; 3. Harvest loss; and 4. Health 2 Health threat 0.58
threat. 4 Migration 0.52
4 Reduced income from private plots 0.52
Respondents pointed to situations of
conflict, caused by the reduced availability 5 Livestock loss 0.45
of water for irrigation (the ITQ ranking for 5 Soil deterioration 0.45
th
conflict was 8th in Khatlon, and 11 in Soghd 6 Employment change 0.42
and Pamir). 7 Drought 0.32

13
 RESEARCH FINDINGS

According to the ITQ, respondents in Pamir fertilisers.

highlighted the follow issues: 1.Natural
disaster and changes in
precipitation/temperature (1st equal);
3.Harvest loss; and 4. Health threat.
Research results in Khorog, Ishkashim and
neighbouring kishlaks show the numerous
effects of climatic events (unconventional
changes in precipitation and temperature).
Thus in 2004 in Ishkashim district the early
snows led to considerable harvest losses.
Some participants also pointed to livestock
impacts. They linked this with the shortage of
hay which resulted from the scorching of
meadow grass.
Respondents in Khorog and Ishkashim
mentioned that as a result of heavy rains the
sowing season had been displaced by 10 to
15 days, leading to a reduction in the harvest
in 2005-06. The inhabitants of most kishlaks
say that the quality of a number of crops
which have been grown for a long time in this
region has deteriorated in spite of the use of
A majority of respondents pointed to an
increased frequency and intensity of natural
disasters (mainly flash floods and
avalanches). This was also related to social
patterns, for example the migration of kishlak
inhabitants, who are located in high risk
zones in the southern valleys of Tajikistan.
Some of these observations have been
confirmed by the research of Professor
Karim-Al Kassam of Calgary University,
carried out from June to September 2007
(see box below).
According to different research studies,
climate change will cause more extreme
weather in mountainous regions (of course, a
great deal depends on the geographical
location and ecological system.) Moreover,
remote mountain settlements, with poor
infrastructure and low living standards, are
more vulnerable to the effects of climate
change. At present these local communities
are ill-equipped to deal with climate change.

Climate change research findings of Professor Karim-Al Kassam

Pamir and Northern Afghanistan

Professor Karim-Al Kassam of Calgary University, Canada, conducted research on "Bio-Cultural

Diversity in the Pamir" from July to September 2006. The report said that in many cases the
consequences of climate change are already visible. Environmental changes connected with
climate change vary from region to region, depending on altitude and ecology.
Firstly, We can observe increases in the water level in rivers and glacial melting. When water levels
rose some land suitable for arable farming was lost. Secondly, the inhabitants of some kishlaks
interviewed by Karim-Al Kassam stated that the sowing period, and also the harvesting, had been
brought forward by 15 to 20 days. Kishlaks that had difficulties before growing wheat - it had often
perished due to frosts - now regularly got quite a good harvest. These changes were observed in the
following kishlaks: Gudara (Bartang valley), Pool-y Zirabon (Shugnan, Afghanistan) and Sarhad-y
Brohil (Vakhan, Afghanistan).
Thirdly, some kishlaks that were used to growing fruit are now facing smaller harvests or complain
about the quality of their fruit. This was seen in Basid (Bartang valley), Dishor (Shugnan, Afghanistan)
and Vuzd (Vahan, Afghanistan).
Fourthly, mountain village inhabitants of Kyrgyzstan observed that springtime becomes the
continuation of the winter. However, the grass on pastures is also getting burnt too quickly and animals
are unable to gain the necessary weight to survive next winter.
Fiftly, local people in Kyrgyzstan and Pamir employed in arable farming and cattle-breeding state
that it is getting more difficult to predict the weather. Understanding the precise social and economic
consequences of these changes is difficult. But we can say that if other factors are taken into account -
the recent conflict and the region's economic decline - then this mountainous region has a very limited
capacity to adapt to the consequences of climate change. Food security is also a key question for this
region.
Biological changes due to climate variation can seriously affect cultural heritage. Seasonal festivals
and holidays (e.g. for harvest time) would be one example. Inhabitants are attempting to adapt to
climate change, for instance by growing wheat at higher altitudes, but they have not realized the
possible catastrophic consequences of such methods.

14
 RESEARCH FINDINGS

Chapter II.2. Survey results

in Kyrgyzstan

Survey participant from Vinogradnoe, Kyrgyzstan

participation and inputs of their own
The Kyrgyz participants in the study, like resources into activities to prevent climate
those in Tajikistan, were asked a series of change.
questions about the evidence for climate
change. As was the case for Tajikistan, Were there any unconventional changes
participants had difficulties in providing a in precipitation or temperature?
complete picture. They remembered the
most striking climatic episodes, especially
Did not reply
those that affected incomes.
Issik-Kul
No Narin
For a majority of the families who live in rural
areas of Kyrgyzstan the harvest the only Chuy

source of profit. The problem is aggravated Yes

by an absence of measures to neutralise the

negative impacts of climate change. 0 5 10 15 20
Number of respondents
Most of respondents who answered this
Almost all respondents say that climate question said they had observed
change has a direct impact on their quality of unconventional variations in precipitation and
life and safety. This was especially temperature.
mentioned by rural communities in Naryn and
Issyk-kul. It is linked with the strong Were there any unconventional natural
relationship here between economic activity disasters (drought, flood, mountain flash
and temperature and climatic conditions. flood, landslide, or drastic change in
groundwater levels)?
Respondents from all provinces stated that
they are concerned about future climate Did not reply
change. For example, people from Issyk-kul Issik-Kul
are worried about the potential impact on No Narin
tourism and agriculture. Chuy

Naryn inhabitants are fearful of a possible
health crisis for livestock and the effect on
the potatoes and wheat crop. Respondents
from Chuy are suffering less than others but
they also worry about social changes, for
example disaster risks and health problems.
Some of respondents, in spite of the warning
signs, did not report changes in their
economic activities. It was a process of
internal migration in order to avoid hazardous
places and in order to find fruitful new places
for agriculture.
Respondents show their readiness for active
Yes
0 5 10 15 20
Number of respondents
In replying to the above question
respondents in Narin and Issyk-Kul referred
to mountain flash floods and frosts, while
Chuy respondents emphasised the droughts,
and also mentioned the worsening global
ecological situation.
The respondents whose villages had suffered
from drought, flash floods and other natural
disasters were interested to know who they
could turn to for assistance with these
problems.

15
 RESEARCH FINDINGS

“I remember that last year in May strong

frosts caused us to lose all the harvest of apricots.
I'm also making decisions about good or bad years
according to the harvest of apricots. If it was a big
harvest, the year is good and vice versa. Last three
years we lost almost all our harvests of apricots.”
“Last year our winter crops died and we lost
a lot of profit. That's why we should take credits. So
our profits depend on weather directly.”
“I'm living in Tosor in Issyk-kul province. I
remember from my childhood that there were a lot
of frogs here but mosquitoes were almost absent.
The frogs even came into our houses and we
Survey participants,
couldn't leave our doors open because of them.
Kyrgyzstan

Now we see that frogs have almost disappeared. The bogs where frogs can live are only
near the lake. We are also growing potatoes in our garden. Earlier the harvest of potatoes was
enough for all the winter. And now it is not enough and we should bye potatoes for winters.
Potatoes also need more water now.”

Toktoim Arikbaev, 56 years old, housewife,

Issyk-kul region, Tosor village, Kyrgyzstan.

It is necessary to point out that, when
respondents discussed the causes of
environmental change, they reasoned about
the relationship between the environment
and local economic activity, as well as about
external man-made influences:
· “Deforestation in Siberia leads to
climate change”;
· "Baikonur space flights are causing
the weather to worsen";
· “There is often erosion of river banks
because all the trees were cut down on the
river banks. It even pulled a bridge down
here”;
· “Humans always destroy and pollute
nature. That causes many problems”;
· “I think that people who live in towns
are detached from nature. They are polluting
air and land and come only to admire the
scenery”;
· “The problem, I think, in that there are
a lot of people on earth now. They need a lot
of place to live and nature is being lost. For
example, when I was small near our house
there was forest and wild boars used to come
to the village at night. We were even afraid to
go out. Now we only hearing about wild
boars in legends and there is no forest here
any longer”.
Several respondents even believed climate
change had a divine cause: they said it was
"for people's sins" and "God has willed it".
Other responses revealed a poor
understanding of the causes of global
warming. For example:
“Our school teacher says everything is OK
and the climate is changing because it's time
to change. The earth is tilting on its orbit. And
it was already so in the past when human
beings were not on the planet”.
Has the climate become worse, made
better or remained stable?
Rural inhabitants found it much easier to
recall events of recent years linked to the
climate than people in urban areas because
the lives of most of these people are
connected with agriculture, and consequently
climatic conditions.
· "Two years ago there was an intense
summer heat. We even had to stop our work";
· "If frosts set in, then for the whole year
there would be no harvest";
· "This year [2007] there was practically
no winter. Very little snow fell";
· “I do not even know. It takes only five
minutes for me to get to work from my house.

16
 RESEARCH FINDINGS
If I need to go to the bazaar I'll take the taxi.
So I am not afraid of the rains and could
escape the hot weather on lake. We only see
that prices at a market rise when the harvest
was not enough. And we feel that effect on
our profits”.
Some of the criteria used by respondents to
determine "good" and "bad" years were
social events such as the break–up of state
farms and political instability. They took into
account not only local but also world events:
in the opinion of one respondent 2006 "was
an extreme year” across the world, with
floods, storms and other major events.
Regarding changes to animal and plant
numbers, the respondents often pointed to
the spreading of diseases and parasites,
which had struck livestock, wood and crops.
· "Trees were never sick before but in the
last three years diseases have become
constant”;
· “We have a lot of white butterflies. In
the beginning we even didn't know what it
was. This butterflies began to eat leafs on a
trees. Trees got sick. It could be because we
did not have strong frosts and the grubs had
not died”;
· “We have a lot of cases of brucellosis
and foot-and-mouth disease. We had
extinguished the source of that”.
Respondents thought 2004 was the rainiest
year, 2003 the most snowy, 2005 was the
best year in terms of harvests and incomes
and 2006 was the worst year.
Did the climate change affect incomes
(e.g. increase or decrease in harvest or
livestock)?
Did not
reply
Issik-Kul
Narin
No
Chuy
Yes
0 5 10 15 20
Number of respondents
Most respondents' yields from their private
land plots had declined owing to drought in
2006 and temperature extremes in 2004. The
regions where incomes were most affected
by climate change were Issyk-Kul and Narin
(a majority of those surveyed).
In Chuy, a third of the people surveyed had
lost income. Respondents in Narin and Issyk-
Kul mentioned natural disasters, such as
flashfloods and landslides as one cause of
harvest loss.
· “All crops of red beet died. It was due to
sickness. We expended a lot of effort without
results”;
· “We had a lot of problems in 2004. They
were related to the strong hail. Even elderly
people said they had never seen such a thing
before. All our pastures suffered. For several
days the grass couldn't stand up. All the crops
of our farmers died, even tomatoes and grain.
We couldn't do anything and all our efforts
were in vain.” Ashirbekov Kubataly, 60 year-old
farmer, Kochkor, Naryn region;
· “Our place was always famous for its
apricots. We have the largest apricot
plantation on the banks of Issyk-kul. In 2004
we almost had no harvest of apricots. We even
had problems with salaries for our workers. But
in 2006 we had a big harvest because the
spring was milder, which is what apricots
need”;
· “I'm growing cucumbers. In 2005 there
were a lot of parasites and our harvest was
suffered“.
Did climatic conditions have an effect on
health?
Did not reply
Issik-Kul
Yes Narin
Chuy
No
0 5 10 15 20
Number of respondents
17
 RESEARCH FINDINGS
The inhabitants of Narin and Issyk-Kul were
divided in their opinion of whether climatic
phenomena had affect health. Over half of
respondents in Chuy believed that there had
been no influence on health.
· “I was sick all winter. The weather was
changing from warm and cold all the time.
Lots of people caught colds”;
· “We had a quarantine in school this
year and last year too. It has been when
winters are warm and lacking snow”;
· “I came here with my husband from
Karakol [north-east Kyrgyzstan]. We decided
to move because my husband didn't like the
climate. It was colder there and he usually
got sick. Recently we were visiting relatives
in Karakol and noticed that it had become
warmer there and windy. Here in Balykchi we
have started to grow grapes, which was
never done before. The weather has
changed!” Irkayim Davlatova, 43 year-old
teacher, Korumdi, Issyk-kul .
Have you received adequate information
on climate change?
11%
Yes
28% No
61% Did not reply
Where do you get this information?
Most of those surveyed considered the
information on this issue to be sufficient.
They obtain it from television and radio.
Many of the respondents had also
participated in seminars on climate change.
However, often there were replies along
these lines, regarding the source of
information:
· "I see it for myself";
· "From the holy scriptures";
· "From meetings in people's homes";
· “I saw on Channel 1 a TV programme
about the climate. They said that warming
was not yet proved but I think that disasters
show us the results of warming”.
18
What is causing climate change?
The replies were varied but the most popular
were the following:
· “Further technological development will
lead to a great catastrophe”;
· “It's the result of urbanisation”;
· “Baikonur space flights are causing the
weather to worsen”;
· “Deforestation in Siberia”;
· “Air pollution”;
· “The law of nature”;
· “For people's sins / God has willed it”;
· “Because we have cut down the apple
orchards”.
What do we need to do to stop climate
change in your village? And in the world?
The most popular replies were the following:
· "Use fewer chemicals”;
· “It is necessary to live according to the
Holy Law / Read the Koran”;
· “We must preserve the ecological
balance”;
· “Stop gold mining in Kumtor”;
· “Conserve what we have and forbid new
mining of mineral deposits”;
· “Plant trees and instal alternative
sources of energy”;
· “Raise the ecological education of the
population”;
· “Teach people to love the land on which
they live”;
· “A more active ecological policy”;
· “Protect nature”;
· “Return to traditional types of economic
activity”;
· “The changes are irreversible”.
Climate Impact Assessment
As with Tajikistan, we have used an "Issue
Topicality Quotient” (ITQ) in order to show
the topicality of each climate-related
phenomena (See above for details of how it
is calculated). We analysed the 64
questionnaires collected in Chuy, Issyk-Kul
and Narin. The results are presented here.
 RESEARCH FINDINGS

Issue Total # # citing # citing # citing ITQ – ITQ – ITQ -

respondents problem problem problem Chuy Narin Issyk-
citing issue in Chuy in Narin in Issyk- (of total (of total Kul
as a Kul 33 15 (of total
problem in respon respon 16
questionnair dents) dents) respon
e dents)
Unconventiona 34 15 9 10 0.45 0.6 0.62
l changes in
precipitation &
temperature
Soil 23 11 5 7 0.33 0.33 0.43
deterioration
Natural 38 15 12 11 0.45 0.80 0.68
disaster
Drought 16 8 5 3 0.24 0.33 0.18
Harvest loss 37 12 13 12 0.36 0.86 0.75
Livestock loss 10 2 4 4 0.06 0.26 0.25
Reduced 21 11 5 5 0.33 0.33 0.31
income from
private plots
Employment 18 7 5 6 0.21 0.33 0.37
change
Migration 24 9 7 8 0.27 0.46 0.50
Conflict 13 5 6 2 0.15 0.24 0.12
Health threat 30 18 4 8 0.54 0.26 0.50

Survey participants from Naryn, Survey participants from Gulhona village, representatives
Kyrgyzstan from local authorities and mosque, Tajikistan

19
 RESEARCH FINDINGS

We also ranked ITQs within each region. This

data is presented below.

Issue ranking by regions

Chuy District:

1 Health threat 0.54

2 Unconventional changes in precipitation 0.45 Survey participants from Gulhona village,
Tajikistan
and temperature
2 Natural disaster 0.45 Issyk-Kul District:
3 Harvest loss 0.36
4 Reduced income from private plots 0.33 1 Harvest loss 0.75
4 Soil deterioration 0.33 2 Natural disaster 0.68
5 Migration 0.27 3 Unconventional changes in precipitation 0.62
6 Drought 0.24 and temperature
7 Employment change 0.21 4 Health threat 0.50
8 Conflict 0.15 4 Migration 0.50
9 Livestock loss 0.06 5 Soil deterioration 0.43
6 Employment change 0.37
As we can see above, the most topical 7 Reduced income from private plots 0.31
climate change-related issues in Chuy were 8 Livestock loss 0.25
the following: 1. Health threat; 2. 9 Drought 0.18
Unconventional changes in precipitation and
10 Conflict 0.24
temperature and natural disasters (2nd equal);
and 4. Harvest loss.
According to the ITQs the respondents of
Issyk-Kul highlighted the following issues: 1.
Narin District: Harvest loss; 2. Natural disaster; 3. Changes
in precipitation and temperatures; 4. Health
th
1 Harvest loss 0.86 threat and migration (4 equal).
2 Natural disaster 0.80
It is worth noting the high ITQs on harvest
3 Unconventional changes in precipitation 0.60 losses, natural disasters, migration and
and temperature health threats in Narin and Issyk-Kul. These
4 Migration 0.46 indicators are very similar to those for Pamir.
5 Drought 0.33 This could be a sign that mountain
5 Soil deterioration 0.33 ecosystems are more susceptible to climate
change: the socio-economic conditions
5 Reduced income from private plots 0.33 experienced by mountain-dwellers are
5 Employment change 0.33 strongly influenced by climatic phenomena,
6 Health threat 0.26 including natural disasters.
6 Livestock loss 0.26
7 Conflict 0.24

The most topical issues identified by Survey participants

respondents in Narin were: 1.Harvest loss; 2. from Shartuz,
Natural disaster; 3. Unconventional changes Tajikistan
in precipitation and temperature; and 4.
Migration caused by income loss and natural
disaster.

20
 NATIONAL DATA ON CLIMATE CHANGE IN TAJIKISTAN
Part III.
National data on
Climate Change
in Tajikistan
The First National Report of the Republic of
Tajikistan on the UN Framework Convention
on Climate Change (2002), the National
"State of the Environment" Report (2002),
and National Action Plan of the Republic of
Tajikistan to Address the Consequences of
Climate Change (2003) all present forecasts
of climate change in Tajikistan.
Chapter III.1.
Climate Change in
Tajikistan and forecast
assessments
The great varieties of climate in Tajikistan are
connected to its high latitudinal and
geographical position, which makes it
interesting to research and model climate
change at a local and regional scale.
Meteorological observations first began in
Tajikistan in the 1950s. For the period 1961
to 1990 the average annual air temperature
increased by 0.7-1.2ºÑ in the broad valleys
of Tajikistan, where the majority of the
population lives. A lower temperature
increase was observed in mountain and high
mountain regions of 0.1-0.7ºÑ. In the
mountains of central Tajikistan, Rushan
district and the lower reaches of the
Zeravshan River there was a small increase
of temperature of 0.1-0.3ºÑ. In large cities
the temperature rise was considerable and
reached 1.2-1.9ºÑ. This was obviously
21
Survey âinêèøëàêå
Îïðîñ Shavkat Øàâêàò,
village,
Òàäæèêèñòàí
Tajikistan
connected with urbanisation (road
construction, buildings, transport and
industrial waste).
According to forecasts of climate change the
expected increase in average annual
temperatures in Tajikistan up to 2050 will be
1.8-2.9 ºÑ. Increased temperature will be
particularly observable during warm periods
of the year and in some regions the rise
could be as high as 4.9 ºÑ.
According to the First National Report
precipitation levels in Tajikistan have also
changed over the same period. For the
period 1961-1990, in the mountains of the
centre, in the South-west and Northern
valleys, in the foothills and mountain regions
of Khatlon, in the foothills of the Turkestan
range and in the Eastern Pamir the reduction
in annual precipitation was between 1 and
20%. In Karategin-Darvaz mountains, which
is at more than 1500 m, precipitation
increased by 14-18%. In West Pamir the
increase was 12-17%. The greatest increase
in rainfall was found at the Fedchenko
glacier: 36%. The driest observed years in
Tajikistan were 1944 and 2000when the
precipitation deficit over the whole territory
was 30-70%. Conversely, the most humid
year in the period of observation was 1969,
when annual precipitation was 1.5 to 2 times
higher than the long-term average rate.
There is a large uncertainty in respect of
precipitation forecasts, caused by the
variations in mountain relief. According to
some models (e.g. HadCM2), there will be an
increase in annual precipitation of between 3
and 26% by 2050 in Tajikistan. Other models
 NATIONAL DATA ON CLIMATE CHANGE IN TAJIKISTAN
indicate a fall in precipitation of 3-5% or more
(e.g. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change).
In the different high-latitude zones we can
observe various changes in snow reserves.
Most foothill regions of Tajikistan have seen
increased snow reserves, but in high
mountain regions there has been a decline.
In recent years the lack of snow reserves in
high mountain and higher air temperature
have reduced water flows in rivers.
Expected increase in annual average
temperature in Tajikistan to 2050
Forecast change in precipitation to 2050
Data source: First National Report of
TajikGlavHydroMet(2003)
It is established that temperature rises can
have both positive and negative effects on
environmental, social and economic systems.
But a larger rise will only be negative.
0
An average temperature increase of 2-3 Ñ
will intensify the glacial melting process.
According to the forecast assessment,
22
thousands of small glaciers in Tajikistan
will disappear.
Total ice cover in the country will decrease by
20%, and the total volume of ice by 25-30%.
In the initial period, glacial melting will cause
increased flows in some rivers and will partly
make up for the reduction of flows in other
rivers, and then there will be a disastrous
decline of waters in many river. In some
regions of Tajikistan water resources will
probably increase (e.g. in the West Pamir); in
others they will reduce (e.g. Zeravshan and
Kafirnigan river basins) because of
temperature increases, glacial melting,
changes in precipitation, and evaporation.
We should expect an increase in the number
and strength of natural disasters,
particularly mountain flash-floods and floods.
Climate change will impact on the quality and
level of water resources. For instance,
changes in river flow volumes will impact on
ecology and affect certain branches of the
economy in Tajikistan and whole Central Asia
region, such as irrigation, water supply and
hydro-electric power.
In the ecosystems of Tajikistan, which have
a rich biodiversity, there may be a change in
the altitudinal limits of vegetation and animal
species. There will be a noticeable impact of
warming on vegetation. This impact will
probably be favourable in high mountain
pastures and alpine meadows, whereas the
condition of winter pastures and hayfields
could worsen if there is a fall in precipitation
and an increase in temperature. As a
consequence of the decline in river flow
volumes, a temperature increase and an
increasing anthropological impact, the tugai
ecosystem in southern Tajikistan could
become degraded. In case of frequent and
long-lasting droughts under the climate
warming there will be changes in the
phenology of bushes and vegetation, and the
migratory periods of birds. It is expected that
the biological balance of ecosystems will be
changed. Deserts will increase.
Agriculture can be damaged by climate
change, if droughts bring soil degradation
and desertification.
 NATIONAL DATA ON CLIMATE CHANGE IN TAJIKISTAN
According the data of the Ministry of
Agriculture and Nature protection, in the
period 1991-2000 one-third of all losses in
agriculture were from meteorological
phenomena and related factors. The long
periods of warm springs and high summer
temperatures has increased the process of
desertification in the south and central parts
of the Republic. There is concern about the
uncontrolled felling of timber, which is caused
by the shortage of energy resources; when
combined with the effects of climate change,
this could result in catastrophic desertification
and soil deterioration.
Water management of Tajikistan in the
future will encounter with the provision of
great value of water for economic
necessities, for arable farming irrigation in
particular. Water usage can increase by 20-
30% in the next two years.
Hydro energy is very dependent on the
natural hydrological cycle. Longer periods of
shallow flows, more landslides and mountain
flash-floods, and an increased use of water
pumps will negatively impact on this sector in
the future. The development of the transport
sector in the Republic is limited by
unfavourable climatic conditions. High
temperatures in the summer result in the
deformation and cracking of hard road
surfaces in flat and foothill regions. Heavy
showers and mountain flash-floods wash
away several tens of kilometres of road and
destroy many buildings. In general, more
than 500 km of roads are exposed annually
to the unfavourable influence of natural
phenomena, and climate plays the main role.
We can expect that one of consequences of
warming will be an increase in the
geographical spread of infectious diseases,
such as malaria.
A change in the hydrological cycle could
cause a decrease in water levels, wetland
expansion and higher water temperatures in
rivers. This would increase the potential for
malaria and cholera pools, particularly in the
lower reaches of the Vakhsh, Kafirnigan and
Pyandj. It is very possible that higher
temperatures will lead to an increase in the
death rates in regions with a hot climate.
Rapid climate change will overload human
23
Presentation on Climate Change in Gulhona village,
Tajikistan
adaptive capabilities and increase
vulnerability. Poorer sections of the
population are particularly vulnerable to
climate change because they lack the
necessary resources to overcome the
consequences.
Chapter III.2.
Tajikistan’s contribution
to global warming
Industrialization, the building of cities, the
growth in agricultural production and
transport development have brought social
and economic development. However, it has
also had an anthropogenic impact on the
environment, including the climate system
due to the increased volume of emissions.
According to TajikGlavHydroMet data
Tajikistan emitted in the period from 1970 to
2000 more than 300 million tonnes (mt) of
CO2 – this included CO2 emissions connected
with cement production.
Total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in
1991 in Tajikistan were 31 mt of CO2-
equivalent. This excludes any mitigation due
to changes in land-use and forestry. By 1998
emissions had fallen to 6.3 mt.
The largest reductions were in carbon
dioxide emissions, but fluorine carbon and
nitrous oxide were also reduced.
Specific CO2 emissions per capita for the
period 1990-98 fell from 3.8 to 0.5 tonnes of
 NATIONAL DATA ON CLIMATE CHANGE IN TAJIKISTAN
CO2. It is very possible that they are now
lowest in the Central Asia region. Globally,
Tajikistan is ranked in 100th place in terms of
CO2 emissions.
CO2 emissions. In Tajikistan in the 1990-98
period the highest volume of CO2 emissions
was in 1991 (22.6 million tonnes), mainly due
to the combustion of fossil fuels. Over these
eight years, CO2 emissions decreased
approximately 10-fold as a result of sharp
reductions in output in the main fossil fuel-
burning industries.
The main sources of CO2 emissions are as
follows:
· Combustion of fossil fuels in industry,
transport, housing and other sectors (82-
92%);
· Industrial production processes and
the smelting of ferrous metals and ammonia
production (8-18%).
CH4 (methane) emissions. In Tajikistan, for
the 1990-98 period, the highest volume of
CH4 emissions was in 1991 (176,000 tonnes),
mainly due to the emissions from stock-
breeding and the oil and gas system. By
1998 CH4 emissions in the Republic had
decreased by at 40% as a result of structural
changes in the agricultural sector and
reduced extraction and consumption of fossil
fuels.
Methane emissions, connected with
extraction and fuel recycling are concern to
general CH4 emissions that exist in coal and
oil and gas systems of Tajikistan, and it forms
at different years from 5 to 35% of all GHGs.
Methane emissions also come from rice-field
flooding and from storage of solid domestic
waste and the sewerage system. The
contribution from these sources amounts to
up to 10%.
N2O (nitrous oxide) emissions. In the 1990-
98 period the highest volume of nitrous oxide
emission was in 1990 (3,800 thousand
tonnes), and the lowest in 1995-1998 (less
than 2,000tonnes), mainly from agricultural
soils. This sector in these years accounted
24
for 95-99% of overall N2O emissions.
Other sources of N2O emissions were
manuremanagement and the combustion of
agricultural wastes.and the combustion of
fossil fuels in the transport sector.
Perflourocarbon emissions. The greatest
source of perfluorocarbon (PFC) emissions in
Tajikistan is aluminum production, which is
responsible for 100% of emissions. Most of
these emissions consist of
tetrafluoromethane (ÑF4) gas (91%); the rest
is hexafluoroethane (Ñ2F6) gas (9%).
After aluminum production was reduced from
450,000tonnes in 1990 to 196,000tonnes in
1998, PFC emissions decreased by 57%.
The highest volume of PFC emissions was in
1990 (690 tonnes) and the lowest in 1997
(290 tonnes).
According to the State Inspection Bureau for
atmospheric air quality vehicle transport in
Tajikistan remains the main source of
atmospheric pollution; it is responsible for
more than 70% of general emissions.
The current rise in industrial production
means the outlook is for an increase of
emissions because very few branches of the
economy have considered introducing clean
technology, such as efficient dust and gas
cleaning.
Ministry of Agriculture and Environmental
Protection data for January to July 2006
showed that total emissions into the
atmosphere in the Republic were 25,800
tonnes (with 1516 enterprises). The
aluminum factory "TadAZ" is spending 5-6
million Tajik somoni (1,5-1,7 miilion USD
equivalent) annually for improvements to its
purification systems. The state enterprise
"Tajikcement" has been given 250,000
somoni ($US 72,000) to purchase a
purification system. Gross emissions in the
Republic in 2006 was 225,000 tonnes;
54,000 tonnes from industry; the remaining
171,000 tonnes is from vehicle transport -
76% of all emissions.
 NATIONAL DATA ON CLIMATE CHANGE IN TAJIKISTAN
Chapter III.3.
National action plan to
address the
consequences
of Climate Change
The National Action Plan of the Republic of
Tajikistan (NAP) to Address the
Consequences of Climate Change
(TajikGlavHydroMet, 2003) defines the main
priorities and activities of the Republic of
Tajikistan on climate change issues. It also
points to the need for further study of the
scientific knowledge of the changing climate
system, and international cooperation in
these areas. The National Action Plan is
fundamental to planning and decision making
for all levels of the government.
NAP includes a climate change adaptation
strategy and a strategy to reduce GHG
emissions.
Chapter III.4.
Adaptation strategy
The objective of the adaptation strategy is to
develop measures to reduce the vulnerability
of natural resources, the economy and health
care resulting from climate change and to
assist the sustainable development of the
Republic.
Water Resources
The climate change vulnerability assessment
has shown that on average the water
resources of Tajikistan, within the boundaries
of the Vakhsh, Kafirnigan, Kyzylsu and
Zeravshan river basins and some others, will
probably decrease. In some regions this
would be disastrous. In summer the flow of
the rivers could be considerably reduced.
The priorities for the use and protection of
water resources are the following:
25
Survey participants from
Jabar Rasulov district,
Tajikistan
· Improvement in the observation of the
hydrological system;
· Creation of a computer database and
forecasting models for users of hydrological
information;
· Conducting studies of the impacts of
climate change on mountain flash-floods;
· Development of ways to improve land
usage in view of climate change;
· Development of ways to protect water
resources, and save water and energy;
· Improvement of the system of water
charges;
· Increasing the efficiency of current
technical and economic measures related to
water use, and the protection and
development of new ones at national and
inter-state levels.
Land Resources
Productive lands in Tajikistan are limited and
so their protection and rational use are of
paramount importance. The standard of living
and well-being of more than 70% of the
Republic's population directly depends on the
land, which is greatly affected by climatic
factors.
In view of this, and to address the
consequences of climate change, the
following recommendations are made on
adaptation:
· Development of measures to protect
the soil against climate change and over-use;
· Improve the condition of the land by
crop rotation, measures to protect the soil,
and limited ploughing of steep slopes;
· Combat marsh expansion and soil
salinisation, including the clearance and
reconstruction of drainage systems,
collectors and pump stations.
 NATIONAL DATA ON CLIMATE CHANGE IN TAJIKISTAN
Pastures
The vulnerability assessment carried out by
TajikGlavHydroMet in 2001 has shown that
the climate impact on pastures is significant.
The productivity of pastures has decreased
by three times or more, and there have been
great losses of breeding-stock in Tajikistan.
To minimize the consequences of climate
change today as well as in the future, the
main recommendations for the adaptation of
pastures are the following:
· Identification of the optimum periods
and rates for grazing cattle according to the
type and condition of the pasture;
· Regulation and optimisation of
pasture load;
· Selective breeding of drought-
resistant, as well as disease and pest-
tolerant grass species for pasture land;
· Expansion of fodder crops on irrigated
lands for use in drought years;
· Build up grain reserves in case of
drought.
Water Management
A vulnerability assessment of water
resources indicates the likelihood of
shortages in the future which will affect water
supply for irrigation, the level of groundwater,
as well as the quality of the water. We
suggest the following measures to deal with
these circumstances:
· Increased efficiency of irrigation
systems and new methods of irrigation and
water conservation;
· Rehabilitation and reconstruction of
irrigation systems to reduce water loss (e.g.
water fumes and filtering);
· Promotion of water-saving technology
in industry, agriculture and water-supply;
· Stricter water control measures,
including the introduction of irrigation periods
and standards;
· Stabilisation of river banks vulnerable
to floods, erosion, and meandering;
· Mass media promotion of the
principles of rational water consumption and
water saving;
· Public and water-user participation in
water management, conservation and
sharing.
26
Agriculture
The vulnerability assessment has shown that
agricultural production depends greatly on
climatic conditions and their variability. The
NAP adaptation strategy recommends the
following measures:
· Use of agro-technical methods to
improve the structure of crops;
· Extend crop rotation in combination
with mechanization and the use of biological
methods for pest control;
· Action to prevent soil salinisation,
wetland expansion, and water and wind
erosion;
· Provision of financial stability in the
economy and agricultural insurance.
To adapt cotton growing to conditions of
climate change and increase productivity,
it is necessary to do the following:
· Create and introduce fast-ripening,
disease- and heat-resistant varieties of
cotton plant;
· Forecast and prevent the outbreak
and spread of diseases and pests affecting
cotton plants;
· Increase the effectiveness of the
irrigation of cotton plants, based on water-
saving technology that will also protect
against soil erosion.
To adapt other crops to conditions of
climate change and increase productivity,
it is necessary to do the following:
· Introduce local crop varieties that are
suitable for the climate conditions;
· Encourage selective breeding of new
disease- and heat-resistant crop types,
including via support to private seed
producers;
· Create of cereal reserves;
· Increase the protection of cereals
from diseases and pests, and provide a
prognosis of the spread of pests in conditions
of climate change.
To adapt livestock farming to conditions
of climate change and increase
productivity, it is necessary to do the
following:
· Support the growth of fodder crops;
· Expand pasture land in private use
 NATIONAL DATA ON CLIMATE CHANGE IN TAJIKISTAN
and introduce stricter controls on their use;
· Assist in the development of private
veterinary practices, which could work with
the state veterinary services to reduce
diseases amongst farm animals.
Chapter III.5.
Strategy to reduce
greenhouse gas
emissions
The objective of the Strategy is to develop a
package of effective measures to reduce
greenhouse gases (GHGs). This would
include improving the condition of natural
carbon absorbers in certain economic
sectors, increasing energy efficiency,
developing alternative sources of renewable
energy, and reduction in the use of fossil
fuels.
The Strategy to save energy and reduce
GHG emissions would give priority to the
following areas:
Energy:
· Reconstruction and improvement of
the electricity network, including substations,
transformers and cable products, which has
the potential to reduce electricity losses by
30-40%;
· Improvement of heating systems and
the thermal insulation of buildings, which will
reduce energy consumption in this area by
25-30%;
· Upgrading and repair of hydroelectric
power plants;
· Construction of small and micro
hydroelectric plants, particularly in remote
mountain areas and regions where electricity
is in short supply. This would reduce the use
of coal and wood considerably and would
improve the level of social development.
According to expert opinion, the construction
of large hydroelectric plants such as Rogun,
Sangtuda and the dams on the Zeravshan
and Kafirnigan Rivers has the potential to
27
reduce carbon dioxide emissions by six to
nine million tonnes per year.
Transport:
· Construction of new roads and better
integration of existing ones, especially
tunnels under mountains, which would
reduce the number of roads and improve
their quality by 25-30%, as well as reduce
fuel consumption;
· Introduction of technology to improve
the quality of fuel so that emissions into the
atmosphere are reduced;
· Transition to alternative fuels for
public transport, with particular attention to
liquefied gas;
· Reduction of carbon dioxide
emissions for all ordinary vehicles in the
Republic to the level of 120-150 grammes of
carbon dioxide/kilometre.
Industry:
We can reduce and limit greenhouse gas
emissions which result from industrial
processes by renovating existing (outdated)
technology and introducing modern
technology with low levels of GHG and other
emissions.
Carbon dioxide and PFCs are the main
GHGs in industry and industry is responsible
for 20-30% of all emissions.
All installations at the Tajik aluminium factory
are fitted with dust and gas cleaning
systems. Fluorine compounds are used for
fluorine salt production and after
regeneration they return into production.
These emissions are reduced by 80-90%.
However, with respect to the climate change
issue, the Tajik aluminium factory is the main
GHG contributor. In the smelting process of
aluminium, PFCs are emitted at the rate of
1.2-1.4 kg per tonne of aluminium made.
PFC emissions contribute significantly to
global warming. The gas CF4 affects global
warming 6500 times more than carbon
dioxide. The carbon dioxide equivalent
emissions in aluminium production exceed
the emissions in transport, the chemical
industry and other sectors combined.
 NATIONAL DATA ON CLIMATE CHANGE IN TAJIKISTAN
The enterprise “Tajikcement” needs to be
rebuilt and necessitates a change of dust and
gas filter equipment. Taking into account the
current situation regarding cement
production, as well as the recreation potential
of the Varzob district, which borders the
factory, it would be better to renovate the
factory with new technology. This would that
reduce considerably energy and water
consumption, and would reduce emissions of
harmful particles. In addition, to minimize the
ecological impact the authorities should
reduce the output of the factory to 400-
600,000 tonnes per annum.
Finally, the enterprise Joint Stock Company
“Azot” needs to be fitted with biological
purification systems in order to reduce GHG
emissions from its sewers. This would solve
the problems in the domestic sewers of
Kurgan-Tepe and Sarband. In the future, it is
necessary to change the copper-ammonium
28
filters of converted gas to a better system.
This would allow the reduction of CO and
CO2 emissions and save electricity.
Waste management:
The main sources of methane emission and
its release into the atmosphere are the
dumps of solid domestic waste in towns and
cities, sewerage treatment plants and the
industrial sewers of manufacturers of non-
ferrous metals, fertilizers, food, textiles and
other branches of industry.
To improve the ecological situation and
sanitary conditions in urban areas, as well as
reduce the methane emission from solid
domestic waste, we need to develop waste
processing and recycling in Dushanbe and
Khujand, which have 40% of the total solid
domestic waste. This would allow a
reduction in CH4 emissions of 30-40% by
2015.
 PRIORITIES ON ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION POLICY AND
MEASURES ON CLIMATE CHANGE IN TAJIKISTAN
Participants of discussion on Climate Change
from Shavkat village, Tajikistan
The Government's priorities on
environmental protection were defined in its
"Strategy on the Protection of the
Environment and the Rational Use of the
Nature Resources of Tajikistan in the period
to 2015". This document focused on the
following key issues:
1. Soil deterioration;
2. Water pollution;
3. Atmospheric air pollution;
4. Loss of biological diversity;
5. Wastes management.
Taking into consideration the importance of
global environmental threats and their strong
inter-relationship with local conditions, the
Republic has ratified several of the most
important International Agreements,
including:
· Vienna Convention for the Protection
of the Ozone Layer (1996);
· Montreal Protocol on Substances that
Deplete the Ozone Layer and the London
Amendment (1997);
· UN Convention on Biological Diversity
(1997);
· UN Convention to Combat
Desertification (1997);
· UN Framework Convention on
Climate Change (1998);
· Ramsar Convention on Wetlands of
International Importance (2000);
· Convention on the Conservation of
Migratory Species of Wild Animals (2000);
· Aarhus Convention on Access to
Information, Public Participation in Decision-
making, and Access to Justice in
Environmental Matters (2001);
Part IV. Priorities on
environmental
protection policy and
measures on Climate
Change in Tajikistan
· Convention on Persistent Organic
Pollutants (2002);
· Convention on Environmental Impact
Assessment in a Transboundary Context
(2004).
Chapter IV.1.
Legislative mechanism
One of the main mechanisms to control GHG
emissions is by enhancing legal instruments.
In order to protect the natural environment
and ensure the sustainable use of natural
resources the Parliament of Tajikistan passed
in 1994 a Law on Environmental Protection.
(A revised law is expected this year.) This law
requires businesses to undertake
environmental protection measures ,
including the prevention of hazardous
emissions and stronger monitoring
procedures in relation to natural resource
exploitation.
According to the Law it is necessary for the
government to conduct systematic climatic
observations , define limits for emissions
that pose a hazard for the climate system
and develop programmes to reduce
emissions. The related secondary legislation
concerning the control of hazardous
atmospheric emissions are as follows:
· Law of Tajikistan on Atmospheric Air
Protection (1996);
· Law of Tajikistan on Energy (2000);
· Law of Tajikistan on Transport (2000);
· Law of Tajikistan on Ecological
Expertise (2002).
29
PRIORITIES ON ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION POLICY AND
MEASURES ON CLIMATE CHANGE IN TAJIKISTAN
In 1993 the Tajik Government approved a
fining procedure for companies responsible
for environmental contamination (e.g. waste
and emissions) that goes beyond the
accepted limit. However, at present there are
no measures in place to monitor and reduce
GHG emissions from the agricultural and
forestry sectors, in spite of their potential
contribution to climate change. In this regard,
national law ought to adjusted so that it is in
line with the requirements of the Framework
Convention and other international
environmental texts signed by Tajikistan.
Chapter IV.2.
Programme and strategy
In 1996 the Government approved a State
programme for the ecological education
of the population of the Republic of
Tajikistan. The programme aims to educate
and inform the population on environmental
issues, including the need for clean air. To
protect natural resources and preserve air
quality the Government of Tajikistan adopted
in 1997 a State Ecological Programme for
the period 1998 -2008.
In 2000 the Government introduced the
National Action Plan on Environmental
Hygiene, which contained provisions on air
quality and health care in relation to
environmental risks. In 2001 the Government
approved a National Action Plan to
Combat Desertification. The plan
introduced measures to protect and restore
forestry and other land, which will also assist
with climate change mitigation in view of the
increased carbon absorption.
A National Strategy to Preserve the
Stratospheric Ozone Layer and forbid the
use of ozone-depleting materials has also
been developed. One of its aims is to
encourage the substitution of halogen carbon
gases, which cause ozone reduction. The
Republic of Tajikistan joined the UN
Framework Convention on Climate Change
in January 7, 1998 and a National Action
Plan (NAP) to Address the Consequences
of Climate Change was approved by a
30
Survey
participants
from Shartuz,
Tajikistan
government decree on 6th June 2003. The
NAP priorities are: climate change mitigation
and adaptation, capacity-building in the area
of climate forecasting and analysis, including
in relation to climate variability, involvement
in international cooperation aimed at
reducing GHG emissions and ensuring
climate change adaptation. NAP measures
are at the heart of current planning and
decision-making on climate change
mitigation and at all levels of government.
Chapter IV.3.
Progress on Tajikistan's
commitments to the UN
Framework Convention
on Climate Change
The First NAP of the Republic of Tajikistan to
was developed in the period 2001-03 and
submitted to the Secretary of the UN
Framework Convention (Phase1, 2002, in
Delhi, India; Phase2, 2003, in Milan, Italy).
Since June 2005 Tajikistan has been
developing its Second National Report. The
main elements of the Second National
Report have been agreed. The report will be
published in 2008.
In line with the objectives of NAP, the Climate
Change Research Unit under the Agency for
Hydrometeorology has prepared the
necessary documents for the ratification of
the Kyoto Protocol and submitted them to the
Tajik Government. The Government is now
considering Protocol ratification issues.
NATIONAL DATA ON CLIMATE CHANGE IN KYRGYZSTAN

The First National Report of the Kyrgyz Part V.

Republic on the UN Framework Convention
on Climate Change (2002), as well as
'Strategy and Assessment of Measures to
National data on
Mitigate the Impact of the Climate Change'
(2003) contained a number of forecast Climate Change
assessments of climate change and action
plan to reduce the climate's impact.
in Kyrgyzstan
Chapter V.1.
Climate Change in
Kyrgyzstan and forecast
assessment
The meteorological data of the State Agency
for Environmental Protection and Forestry
showed that the average annual temperature
for the whole territory of Kyrgyzstan in the
th 0
20 century became warmer by 1.6 Ñ; that is
considerably more than the global average of
0.60Ñ. The greatest warming was in winter
(2.60Ñ) and the least in summer (1.20Ñ).

Average annual precipitation in the territory

of Kyrgyzstan in the 20th century increased by
23 millimetres or 6%. In three climatic areas
of Kyrgyzstan annual precipitation levels
increased: in the North and North-west by
31-93 millimetres (a 6-22% increase), the
South-west – 61-239 millimeters (16-32%),
Issyk-Kul province – 5-60 millimetres (2%-
24%). In the Tian-Shan mountain range,
which covers a large part of the Republic,
rainfall levels remained unchanged.

Climate forecasts for the period from 2050 to

2100 in Kyrgyz Republic (using the HadCM2 Presuppose low level of GHGs
model) predict that the range for average
annual temperature warming is 1.8 to 4.40C; Presuppose high level of GHGs
for the temperature in different seasons of
the year the range is 1.3-4.80Ñ.
Climate Change Models from 2050 to 2100.
Source: State Agency for Environmental
Protection and Forestry of the Republic of
Kyrgyzstan (2003)

31
 NATIONAL DATA ON CLIMATE CHANGE IN KYRGYZSTAN
Henceforth climate change forecasts in Kyrgyz
Republic will be improved by including in
forecasts consideration of local mountain
conditions.
Chapter V.2. Kyrgyzstan’s
Survey participants contribution
from Balykchi, Kyrgyzstan
to global warming
Kyrgyzstan's total GHG emissions in 1990 were
36.7 million tonnes (mt) or 8.5 tonnes per
capita. In 1990 CO2 emissions made up about
80% of all GHG emissions; in 2000 it was 74%.
The largest emissions of carbon dioxide in
Kyrgyz industry are from cement and lime
production. In 2000 metal production comprised
about 5% of total emissions. The largest share
of methane emissions is in the agricultural
sector.
GHG emissions forecasts shows that by 2010
carbon dioxide emissions will have increased to
20.5 mt, methane to 110,000 tonnes, and
nitrous oxide to 7,000 tonnes.
Chapter V.3. Kyrgyzstan’s
contribution
to global warming
A strategy has been developed in Kyrgyzstan to
mitigate climate change, based on placing
limits on GHGs. To increase the strategy's
efficiency, it was integrated with other national
development strategies which provide GHG
reductions on the one hand, and poverty
reduction on the other. Such an approach will
assist in the sustainable development of the
country and enable it to meet its commitments
under the UN Framework Convention.
Measures to reduce GHG emissions entail
certain financial costs. However, in spite of the
difficulty of the economic situation, the country
could take some low-cost measures to reduce
GHG emissions, such as reducing emissions of
sulphur dioxide, nitrous oxide,
carbon dioxide, and other chemical materials
and aerosols. This would also improve local
and national air quality, thereby having a
beneficial effect on human health, animals,
plants and the ecosystem.
32
The Kyrgyz Republic needs to overcome such
difficulties as:
· A lack of effective regulatory agencies to
deal with climate change issues;
· A lack of incentive mechanisms for the
introduction "green technology";
· The numerous current market and
institutional barriers, which have prevented the
introduction of efficient economic measures for
GHG emissions reduction. Reducing these
barriers to mitigation measures would help the
Government in its preparations for the
ratification of the Kyoto Protocol.
A package of national policies is required to
reduce GHG emissions. Such a package
should include:
· More efficient state monitoring and
management of GHG emissions and emissions
of other dangerous air pollutants;
· The periodic preparation and
submission to the UN Secretary Convention of
National Reports and Cadastres of GHG
emissions and absorption;
· The improvement of the relevant
legislative base;
· The introduction of economic
instruments, such as specific taxes and
emissions permits, and a reduction of subsidies
that promote GHG emissions;
· Co-ordination with different countries in
the field of GHG reductions, including tradable
quotas for emissions;
· Access to data and information, new
technology, and financial resources;
· Public information on climate change
issues and public participation in decision-
making.
To reduce GHG emissions it is necessary to
undertake the following actions:
· Begin to use renewable sources of
energy, reduce imports of low-grade coal,
increase the efficiency of fuel use by
modernising combustion systems; reduce fuel
consumption in heating and energy production;
· Implement a strict energy saving policy;
· Develop normative legal mechanisms,
which stimulate consumers to save energy;
· Undertake research on the development
and introduction of new energy-saving and
resource-saving technologies, and GHG
absorption technology.
POLICY PRIORITIES AND MEASURES TO ADDRESS CLIMATE
CHANGE IN KYRGYZSTAN

Part VI. Policy

priorities and measures
to address Climate
Change in Kyrgyzstan
Survey in Issyk-Kul district,
Kyrgyzstan

Since Kyrgyzstan ratified the UN Framework
Convention on Climate Change in May 2000,
it has been working to meet the commitments
it made under this International Agreement.
This Climate change work began with the
development and approval of the Project
document "Assistance to Kyrgyz Republic in
preparing the First National Report on
commitments to the UN Convention on
Climate Change". The project received the
financial support of the Global Environment
Facility (GEF) and UNDP and was
successfully completed in 2004.
The First National Communication of the
Kyrgyz Republic Under the UNFCCC was
prepared during two phases of the project.
An assessment of the country's technological
needs relating to emissions reductions in the
energy sector, forestry, waste (municipal and
agricultural) and construction was conducted.
And within the framework of the First
National Communication a Strategy to
Mitigate the Impact of Climate Change was
developed (2003).
Objective of the Second National Report:
? Draw up an inventory of GHG
emissions for 2000-2004;
? Evaluate the potential impact of
climate change in the different provinces and
districts of the country;
? Analyse efforts to reduce GHG
emissions in the country and climate change
adaptation measures;
? Prepare the Second National Report
of Kyrgyz Republic for the Bali UNFCCC
Conference on climate change.
The project will help ensure that climate
change issues are introduced into sectoral
and national development strategies, and will
also monitor the performance by Kyrgyzstan
in meeting its commitments under the UN
Convention. In addition, it is expected that
the project will serve to raise national
awareness of climate change issues and will
increase the level of information exchange
between key partners, such as state organs,
NGOs, scientific organisations, and the social
and private sectors.

The work was continued by the GEF/UNDP

project "Assistance to Kyrgyz Republic in
preparing of the Second National Report on
commitments to the UN Framework
Convention on Climate Change", whose
implementation period is from 2005 to 2008.

The State Agency for Environmental

Protection and Forestry of is responsible for
its execution.

Survey participants from Balykchi,

Kyrgyzstan

33
 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Presentation for rural people,
Naryn,Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, as developing
countries and therefore not signatories to
Appendix 1 of the UN Framework Convention
on Climate Change, do not have an
obligation to reduce GHG emissions.
However, they can take undertake voluntary
reductions within the framework of the
existing Convention. Consequently we have
seen the development of strategies and
National Plans to address the consequences
of climate change, national reports and other
important documents defining policy in this
field. According to experts, in spite of the
instability of the economic situation, the
countries could take a range of low-cost
measures to reduce GHGs. This would lead
to air quality improvement at a local, national
and regional level and consequently the
diminution of the threat to health, the
ecosystem and agriculture.
The current national reports are scientific in
nature and the Action Plans consist of
recommendations which consider adaptation
in the following sectors: water, land
resources, industry and agriculture. Adaptive
measures in agriculture (e.g. cotton and
wheat production and cattle breeding) are
essentially declarative in nature and could
only be achieved by large agricultural
producers, and government ministries with
large-scale financing. However, as is well
known, the Governments of Tajikistan and
Kyrgyzstan do not finance the
implementation of National Action Plans,
though they are in theory integrated into
planning and decision-making at all state
levels.
Both in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan agriculture
is the most important branch of the economy,
upon which sustainable development and the
well-being of the people and communes
34
Part VII.
Conclusion and
recommendations
largely depend. It is complicated enough to
calculate the direct impact of climate change
on agricultural production and poverty in
communes because alongside a changing
climate there are economic, social and
political factors to consider. Vulnerability is
heightened by frequent natural disasters and
damaging meteorological events. It is the
case that agricultural losses connected with
climatic phenomena are worse than losses
connected with other factors.
The most harmful and economically
damaging events for communes (according
to the Summary of Report on Climate
Change Dependence and Adaptation
Strategy of Tajikistan, 2001) are high air
temperatures accompanied by hot, dry winds
(damage 9-13% of crops), intensive rainfall
and mountain flash-floods (damage 10-15%),
and strong winds and dust storms (damage
5-7%).
From the survey we found a clear inter-
relationship between poverty and climate
change. The survey participants from
Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan pointed to some
significant impacts of climate change: harvest
losses, income reductions in connection with
changes in precipitation and abnormal
changes in temperature.
This was mentioned by over half of the
respondents from Soghd and Pamir, more
than 80% from Khatlon, and by 60% of
respondents in Kyrgyzstan. 104 out of 158
respondents (66% of those surveyed)
pointed to:
? harvest losses in connection with
droughts, soil deterioration, reduction of
groundwater levels and natural disasters;
? cattle losses in connection with
unconventional climatic phenomena, such as
snow storms, severe cold “snaps” and
natural disasters.
 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Respondents also reported that they faced
health threats (34% of those surveyed) as
well as impacts on employment levels,
migration and conflict (around 10% of those
surveyed), all connected with abnormal
climatic phenomena.
The inhabitants of practically all the districts
researched stated that the climate had
changed in the last five years. For instance,
in Khatlon it has become more continental
(colder winters and hotter summers). In
Kyrgyzstan the picture varied according to
the province: it had either become drier or
wetter. We could explain the "discontent" with
the climate and weather as a standard
human response were it not for the evidence
of growing vulnerability of these communes
to climate-related income losses.
The survey analysis in Khatlon showed that
the most acute problems for communes,
connected with climate change, were the
following: unconventional changes in
precipitation and temperature, harvest
losses, natural disasters, health threats and
drought.
In Soghd the most acute problems for
communes were: unconventional changes in
precipitation and temperature, natural
disasters, harvest losses and health threats.
In Pamir and Kyrgyzstan the main problems
for communes are: natural disasters, harvest
losses, health threats and migration. Hence
the main community problems are identified,
and there is a strong connection with climate
change processes and meteorological
phenomena.
Recommendations
The most important directions of adaptation
work in communes, particularly actions on
agriculture could be the following:
1. Agricultural Insurance;
2. Corn reserve;
3. Creation of self-help groups and
funds, which can be used for dealing with
the consequences of unfavourable
climatic phenomena;
4. Improved community preparedness
for and response to extreme climatic
events;
35
5. Development and execution of
Local Environmental Action Plans.
Policy measures on reducing climate impact
would be more efficient if they were delivered
as part of a wider package of environmental
protection measures. The Local
Environmental Action Plans should include
the development and implementation of
demonstration projects on energy saving and
emissions.
Examples of energy- and emissions-saving
projects are:
1. Use of energy-saving ovens for
traditional methods of cooking. If such
ovens were built from cheap, local
materials, it would reduce firewood usage
and solve interior smoke problems;
2. House insulation using local and
cheap materials would reduce firewood
usage during the winter months as well as
gas emissions;
3. Development of alternative energy
sources such as solar greenhouses,
whose special design does not require
additional heating in winter and would
improve the economy of the local
community;
4. More efficient use of agricultural
and farm waste in biogas installations,
allowing for the simultaneous production
of gas, heating and electricity;
5. Composting of leaves would
demonstrate the advantage of using
cheap fertilizer and reduce the traditional
community practice of leaf-burning, and
would reduce the risk of lung disease;
6. Use of solar energy as an alternative
to traditional burning of firewood and coal
(solar collectors, solar ovens and fruit
dryers).
Besides local energy-saving and GHG
emissions reduction projects, other efficient
projects on climate change adaptation in
communes could be the following:
1. Action to prevent salinisation and
marsh expansion, e.g. by drainage
clearance;
2. Prevention of wind erosion, e.g. by
planting fast-growing trees;
3. Prevention of water erosion, e.g. by
fortifying riverbanks.
 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Authorities should also consider programmes
to generate income for the population which
also serve an ecological purpose:
1. Creation of fast-growing trees
nurseries;
2. Establishment of centres for the
production of organic fertilizers and the
composting of agricultural waste;
3. Building of factories to
manufacture biogas and solar
installations.
However, the most important component of
the Local Environmental Action Plan should
be the education of the population on climate
change matters. Our research shows that
climate change in communes is not a priority
because of the low information levels,
especially regarding the connection between
climate issues and poverty and local
economic activity.
In 2002 the Tajik Ministry of Environmental
Protection conducted an opinion poll on
climate issues, which showed that the public
was very poorly informed on these matters.
This is in spite of an understanding of the
problem within Government. The reason for
this is:
? Insufficient information in the mass
media;
? Absence of teaching about the
issue in educational institutions;
? Poor awareness of the issue
amongst local governments.
Only one quarter of all respondents of our
survey in Tajikistan thought that information
was sufficient. A majority of survey
respondents in Tajikistan were not informed
of climate change problems. In Kyrgyzstan,
the level of community awareness was
higher: 61% of respondents considered
information on climate problems to be
sufficient.
The good level of community information in
Kyrgyzstan is explained by the activity of
NGOs in these communes. There are more
than 200 environmental NGOs in Kyrgyzstan
and more than 20 of them are working on
climate change issues. In contrast, in
Tajikistan it is the case that National Action
Plans and strategies are organised either by
36
scientific institutes and do not provide for the
participation of communes – even at the level
of information-sharing.
Furthermore, in Tajikistan too few NGOs are
working on this issue. There are more than
20 environmental NGOs in Tajikistan;
however climate change is not considered a
priority due to an absence of information but
also funding. In recent years only two NGOs
in Tajikistan, "For Earth" and "Youth
EcoCentre", conducted information
campaigns on climate problems and energy-
saving at the community level. Public
organizations in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan
have designed new secondary school
curricula on climate and alternative energy in
the national language and Russian, as well
as posters, films, and various other materials.
There have also been a number of pilot
projects on energy saving, organised jointly
with communities introduced. But this is not
nearly enough. It is necessary to:
1. Support public organisations
working with communities and young
people on climate issues;
2. Develop school materials on climate
change issues taking into account the
national context;
3. Introduce through NGOs projects to
promote energy saving and efficiency;
4. Involve NGOs and the mass media
in national programme and document
development on climate change matters,
and improve cross-sectoral cooperation
in this area;
5. Support greater coverage of climate
change issues by Republican and local
newspapers;
6. Increase people's access to Internet
resources on climate issues;
7. Integrate climate change issues into
the existing work by social groups on
preparedness and disaster response in
Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.
Of course, NGO activity should not only be
limited to information provision and
education. The most important activity by
environmental NGOs must be their
participation in economic decision-making
affecting GHG emissions, public expertise
and monitoring, and supporting community
involvement in the same decision-making
processes.
 BIBLIOGRAPHY

1. “Climate and the Environment”. K.D. Bokonbaev, E.M. Rodina and other, GEF
Project and IFAS “Water resources management and environment in the Aral
Sea basin”, Component “Public opinion making”, UNDP, GEF, Bishkek, 2003;
2. Climate Impact & Mitigation Strategy of Kyrgyzstan, Bishkek, 2003;
3. Dr. Karim- Ali, Report “Bio-Cultural Diversity in the Pamir” Calgary University,
Canada. 2006;
4. Ecological Information Bulletin. Ministries of Agriculture and Environmental
Protection of the Republic of Tajikistan, Dushanbe, 2006;
5. Educational film “Global Climate Change”. Regional Ecological Centre of
Central Asia, translated by NGO “For Earth”, Dushanbe, 2006;
6. Global Climate Change. Guide to posters and films on climate change.
Regional Ecological Centre of Central Asia, Almaty, 2005;
7. Initial National Report of Tajikistan on UN Framework Convention on Climate
Change, Dushanbe, 2002;
8. Initial National Report of the Republic of Kyrgyzstan on Climate Change,
Bishkek, 2002;
9. National Action Plan to Address the Consequences of Climate ChangeNational
Action Plan for the Climate Change Consequences Mitigation - Dushanbe:
TajikGlavHydroMet, 2003;
10. Seminar materials: “Introductive National Seminar on Climate Change in
Tajikistan”, General Department of Hydrometeorology and Environment
Observation, GEF-UNDP, Dushanbe, 2000;
11. State of the Environment Report of Tajikistan, Dushanbe, 2002;
12. Summary of Report on Climate Change Dependence and Adaptation Strategy.
Initial National Report of Tajikistan on Climate Change, Dushanbe, 2001;
13. The National Action Plan of the Republic of Tajikistan (NAP) to mitigate the
consequences of climate change (TajikGlavHydroMet, 2003)
14. The UN Framework Convention.

37
Youth Ecological Centre – Republican public social-ecological
organization with the mission of developing a capacity of youth groups
and communities for the improvement of local social-ecological situation
and upgrading the role of the youth and communities in decision making
regarding the issues of sustainable development.

In EcoCentre work:
?Information service and a resource Centre
?Service for working with communities
?Service for working with the youth

In the EcoCentre also function:

? a youth volunteer centre and a debate club
? a program of works for education on sustainable development
? a research program and programs evaluation on Emergency
Situations
? a program on climate change issues
? a program on ecological sanitary
? advocacy program

EcoCentre also organizes and annually conducts ecological actions,

youth ecological camps and expeditions.

Youth EcoCentre is a Member of International Socio-Ecological Union,

Member of the WECF network (Women of Europe for Common Future), a
member of Central Asia network of experts on ecological education

Youth Ecological Centre

Republic of Tajikistan
Dushanbe city, Gertsen str., 3
Tel.:992 372235041, 278118
e- mail tabiat@tajnet.com
Web: www.ecocentre.tj