Professional Documents
Culture Documents
By Mark Etzkorn
In "Basic Chart Analysis: Trends, Trading Ranges and Support and Resistance,"
we discussed some of the fundamental concepts of price action and chart
patterns. Here, we'll delve into a little more detail about some of the well-known
chart patterns, how they reflect basic price action principles and what to
understand about the trade signals they provide.
At the simplest level, chart patterns can be divided into reversal patterns and
continuation patterns, and both categories are exactly what they sound like:
Reversal patterns suggest the culmination of trends and a change in price
direction; continuation patterns imply a resumption of an existing trend and are
usually shorter in duration than reversal patterns. (Some short-term patterns that
consist of only one or two bars, such as gaps, reversal days and spikes, will be
discussed in an upcoming article.)
It's also necessary to consider the time frame of a particular pattern to better
understand its potential. Shorter-term patterns (say, a five-day trading range, or
flag) generally imply shorter-term price reactions; longer-term patterns (such as a
slowly developing double top), signal the potential for much more significant price
reactions.
As noted in "Basic Chart Analysis: Trends, Trading
Ranges and Support and Resistance," the underlying A continuation
logic of these patterns and principles are constant, pattern is a period
regardless of the time fame chart you consult. Pattern of price congestion
examples will be shown on intra-day, daily and weekly
charts just to underscore this point. or consolidation
that interrupts a
A reversal pattern like a double top on a weekly chart trend
implies the same kind of price action it does on a 15-
minute chart, just of a different magnitude: The signal on the weekly chart
suggests the potential for a major trend reversal, while the signal on the 10-
minute chart would imply a reversal of the very short-term (probably intra-day)
trend.
Continuation patterns
While triangles also can act as reversal patterns after long trends, they are more
commonly continuation patterns. A breakout of the triangle in the direction of the
trend signals the trend has resumed, while a breakout through the opposite side
of the triangle would imply the trend is in jeopardy or has reversed.
Figure 1. Amazon.com (AMZN), 30-minute bar. A convincing breakout to the
upside or downside will be necessary to determine whether this triangle is a pause in
an uptrend initiated by the previous trading range breakout, or a top pattern that
reverses the quick up move. Note the different ways the upper boundary of the
triangle could be have been re-drawn (the red and blue lines). Using the red line that
connected the first high with the next swing high, price is already above the upper
boundary--but has not convincingly followed through. Source: Quote.com.
Update: As of the close of trading on 10/4/99, the triangle pattern had extended
(AMZN closed down 3/16) on a relatively strong up day for the overall market
(see Figure 1a). The stock tried break through the lower boundary of the triangle,
but did so unconvincingly.
Flags Like pennants, flags are also shorter-term congestion patterns, but the
lines defining their upper and lower boundaries run parallel instead of
converging.
Flag patterns are really short-term trading ranges; a minimum number of bar
would be 3-5; as is the case for pennants, a flag that extends to approximately
twenty or more bars is more properly classified as a trading range. Flags may
form both diagonally (usually against the direction of the trend, as in a correction
or pullback formation) instead of horizontally. Figures 2 and 3 show examples of
pennants and flags.
Figure 2. Oct. '99 sugar futures (SBV9), daily. Flags and pennants (or triangles?)
interrupt trends on this daily chart and offer short-term support and resistance
levels at which to enter trades and place logical stop-loss orders (at the opposite
boundary of the pattern from which the trade is entered). Source: Quote.com.
One interesting aspect of this chart is the congestion pattern that forms in May
and early April in Figure 2. Is it a pennant or triangle? In a sense, this example
shows how subjective chart analysis can be. The pattern is a little over 20 bars in
length--a little over a month. It’s a little long for a pennant, and would probably
best be labeled a short triangle.
Figure 3. Bristol-Meyers Squibb (BMY), five-minute bar. Flags and pennants on an
intra-day chart. Source: Quote.com.
However, it’s not the name that's important, it's what a pattern suggests the
market might do. In this case, a downtrending market is consolidating in an
increasingly narrow range. The astute chartist would not get hung up on counting
the precise number of bars and labeling the pattern, he or she would be more
interested that the pattern was offering the potential to enter the downtrend on a
downside breakout of the pattern, or possibly go long (or liquidate existing shorts)
if price instead broke out of the upside of the pattern.
Further, chart patterns are rarely contained perfectly inside the lines defining their
upper and lower levels; slight penetrations are the rule rather than exception, as
is clearly illustrated in these examples.
Effective risk control Notice in all these examples, the patterns offer clear entry
points and stop levels. Chart pattern boundaries allow you to place logical,
market-based stops that take you out of trades when the price action suggests
the market's outlook has changed. (This will hold true for the reversal patterns we
discuss in the next section as well.)
For example, if entering a long trade on the upside breakout of a flag, the bottom
of the flag (in practice, somewhat below it) makes a perfect stop level: If the
market reverses and trades below this level, it suggests the outlook and
dynamics that justified the original long trade are not longer valid. If that's the
case, common sense dictates it's time to get out of the trade--or take one in the
opposite direction if the evidence is there to support
the decision.
Seasoned traders
Having the flexibility to trade such failed signals is one go with what the
of the hallmarks of seasoned traders. They know to market is telling
go with what the market is telling them now, rather
than brooding on what it was telling them five days
them now, rather
ago. The flag in Figure 3 fails to break out in the than brooding on
expected direction (up); the alert trader would what it was telling
recognize this as a sign of weakness and would either
liquidate or lighten existing positions, or choose to go
them five days ago
short.
Also, in the case of very narrow continuation patterns, the small risk makes it
easier to take a second shot at a trade signal if stopped out the first time. Again
using a hypothetical flag example, if the market reversed to just below the lower
range of the flag (stopping you out), you could re-enter on another move above
the upper range of the flag if the market reversed again to the upside with
nothing much lost. Figure 2 shows two especially short, narrow flags that would
have offered low-risk opportunities.
Reversal patterns
Reversal patterns occur at the tops and bottoms of markets and imply a change
in direction of the major trend. Most of them are really specialized versions of the
support and resistance principles discussed in "Basic chart analysis: Reversal
and continuation patterns."
Using such patterns involves recognizing them as they are developing, and
finding logical entry points and stop levels.
Double tops and bottoms For example, the double top pattern pictured in
Figure 4 reflects the idea that if a market makes a new high, corrects, advances
again toward the previous high, and then falls again, it has failed to break
through the resistance implied by the first high, and a reversal is likely.
Obviously, such a signal would be more meaningful after a long uptrend, as in
this example. The situation would be reversed for a double bottom. Triple tops
are the same concept except that, not surprisingly, one more high (or low) is
involved.
Figure 4. IBM (IBM), weekly. Penetration of relative low between the peaks of the
double top marks a logical downside entry point (or liquidation point for existing
longs); a stop would be placed above the high of the pattern--the same spot at which
a breakout trader would go long on the resumption of the major trend (This stock
dropped--but did not close--below the relative low entry point on 10/1/99.). Source:
Quote.com.
A logical point to enter trades on double tops or bottoms is on a move below the
relative low between the two peaks of a double top, or above the relative high
separating the two troughs of a double bottom. The relative lows and highs
represent shorter-term (secondary) support and resistance, that when violated,
confirm price reversals. Conversely, stops can be placed above the high of a
double or triple top, or below the low of a double or triple low. A surge past the
high of a double top or below the low of a double top negates the original
premise of the pattern, so such levels are prudent choices both for stops and for
trade entries based on the failure of the original reversal pattern.
Common Characteristics
Again, this is only common sense. All trends must end. The longer a market
trends, the closer it is to its eventual reversal. When a market enters a
congestion period and/or hits resistance overhead or support below after a long
trend (which is a good working definition of a reversal pattern) it is only natural to
consider the possibility the market may reverse. As was the case with the
continuation patterns in the earlier section, the boundaries of reversal patterns
offer clearly defined entry and stop levels.
As we've pointed out, one good thing about simple chart patterns is that it’s easy
to tell when things go wrong: If the market goes in the opposite direction implied
by a chart pattern, you know you should get out--or reverse your position. And as
we've illustrated, it's easy to find logical levels at which to place your stops:
slightly above or below the opposite side of the pattern.
The only way to improve chart analysis is through experience and by applying a
little common sense when interpreting patterns. Remember, the context of a
particular pattern is just as important as the pattern itself. Something that looks
like a pennant in the middle of a trading range is not significant; the same pattern
in the middle of a trend, is.
Chart patterns are not magic signals, they're simply price developments that
suggest the possibility of certain kinds of market behavior--e.g., trend
continuation or trend reversal--and are based on the simple concepts of support
and resistance.
Successful chart-based trading requires knowing when to get out of a trade that
isn't working by using stop orders placed at levels representing the failure of a
pattern--a sign the market's character and outlook has changed--and confirming
trade signals when they occur with other patterns or filters that support taking the
trade (such as going short only after two closes below the relative low between
the two peaks of a double top).
While we've only touched on the types of chart patterns, the basic principles of
interpreting and trading different varieties remain constant. The most important
thing to remember about chart patterns is that they all revolve around either
trend, price congestion or price extremes--all very simple concepts. It's not
necessary--and certainly not advisable--to make trading more complex than it
has to be.