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Unclassified Metrics
April 2009
Strategic Advisory Group HQ ISAF
Prepared on 9 May 09
UNCLASSIFIED
Security Summary
(Statistics Compare January - April 2009 v. January - April 2008)
NATO OTAN
64% increase in Insurgent Initiated Attacks1 80% of attacks occurred in 13% of the districts (Jan-Apr 09)1 IED events up 80% (IEDs caused 60% of casualties Jan-Apr 09)1
28% increase in CF force strength5 38% increase in ANA force strength4 59% increase in CF offensive events1
Less Activity
NWFP
Footnotes on Sources: 1JOIIS, 4 May. 2ANQAR Survey, 31 Mar. 3CJOC CivCas cell, 2 May. 4CSTC-A, 4 May. 5CJ1, 3 May.
Civilian Deaths: down 44%3 ISAF/OEF Deaths: up 55%1 ANSF Deaths: up 25%1
(Since Jan 07, ANPs suffered 1.8x more deaths than ANA+ISAF)
ABP: - Focused Border Development: 2 cycles complete (20 companies) Attacks on GIRoA officials & district centers: up 90%1 - 3rd and 4th Cycles underway (14 companies programmed) Kidnappings/Assassinations: down 17%1 Prepared on 5 May 09 2 NATO/ISAF UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED
NATO OTAN
The Number inside the bar indicates average daily insurgent initiated attacks (i.e. Helmand averaged 10.6 attacks per day from Jan 09 Apr 09) The Number on top of the bar indicates the change relative to last month (i.e. average daily insurgent initiated attacks decreased by 0.8 per day in Helmand relative to last month)
10.0
8.0
6.0
+0.2 3.9 2.0 +0.3 1.4 4.5
4.0
2.0
1.2
0.9
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.7
0.5
0.5
0.1
0.1
0.5
0.1
Day Kundi
Badakhshan
UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED
Samangan
3
Nuristan
Laghman
Bamyan
Nangarhar
Helmand
Kandahar
Panjsher
Ghor
Badghis
Uruzgan
Baghlan
Jawzjan
Sari Pul
Kabul
Herat
Kunduz
Lowgar
Nimroz
Kapisa
Balkh
Ghazni
Faryab
Paktya
Khost
Kunar
Farah
Zabul
Paktika
Takhar
Wardak
Parwan
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
+0.1 +0.1
+0.1
+0.1
-0.1
+0.1
Insurgent Attacks
Insurgent initiated attacks were up 64% overall (Jan/Apr 09 v. Jan/Apr 08):
Direct Fire attacks were up 57% Indirect Fire attacks were up 44% IEDs were up 81% Surface to Air Fire was up 103% Coalition Force offensive actions were up 59%
INS Attacks Winter 1,600
1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0
New PAK GOV negotiates w / FATA tribes
NATO OTAN
Kinetic events increased substantially this year relative to the same period last year
Deliberate increase in operational tempo by ANSF and ISAF Milder winter Continued freedom of action for insurgents from sanctuaries across the border Indirect Fire
Winter
Direct Fire
IEDs
Ramadan
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Poppy Poppy Poppy 07 07 08 08 09 Harvest Harvest Harvest
UNCLASSIFIED
NATO OTAN
Comparing Jan-Apr 09 to the same period during 2008, IED discoveries (finds plus turn-ins) were up 75% Since January 2007, discoveries have accounted for 55% of all IED events
600
ISAF Finds
500
ANSF Finds
LN Turn-Ins
Detonations
400
300
200
100
0 Jan 07 Mar May Jul 07 Sep Nov Jan 08 Mar May Jul 08 Sep Nov Jan 09 Mar
NATO OTAN
ANA
ANP
Civilians
600
500
400
300
200
100
0 Jan 07 Mar May Jul 07 Sep Nov Jan 08 Mar May Jul 08 Sep Nov Jan 09 Mar
UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED
Pro-GIRoA Events
Cache, IED turn-ins and anti-INS activity
NATO OTAN
2009 Pro-GIRoA Events (through April): 127 Comparing Jan-Apr 09 to the same time period in 2008, Pro-GIRoA Events were down 3%
RC-E
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 07 07 08 08 09
RC-S
RC-W
RC-N
RC-C
UNCLASSIFIED
NATO OTAN
ISAF/OEF Responsible
Insurgent Responsible
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 07 07 08 08 09
Year 2009 Civililan Deaths (ISAF/OEF Responsible) 30 CivCas Events (Caused by ISAF/OEF) 25 20 15 10 5 0
Troops in Contact Close Air Support Troops in Contact Indirect Fire Troops in Contact Direct Fire Road Traffic Accident Rules of Engagement / Escalation of Force
ISAF Responsible Jan 07 - Apr 09 Jan 07 - Dec 07 Jan 08 - Dec 08 Jul 08 - Apr 09 Sep 08 - Apr 09 Jan 09 - Apr 09
Among the CivCas events for which responsibility has been attributed to ISAF/OEF Forces, ROE / EOF events account for the greatest proportion of CivCas events but CAS events have caused the greatest proportion of Civilian Deaths. UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED
8
Military Deaths*
Comparing Jan-Apr 09 to the same time period in 2008: Total military deaths were up 29% ANSF deaths were up 24% ISAF deaths were up 55%
ISAF
250
NATO OTAN
ANA
ANP
200
150
100
50
0 Jan 07 Mar May Jul 07 Sep Nov Jan 08 Mar May Jul 08 Sep Nov Jan 09 Mar
*Attributed to insurgent initiated attacks (direct fire, indirect fire, IEDs, and surface-to-air fire)
Source: JOIIS, 4 May 09
UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED
NATO OTAN
CM2
CM3
CM4
80%
Jan 07: 30% CM1/2 Jan 08: 49% CM1/2
60%
40%
20%
0% Jan 07 Mar May Jul 07 Sep Nov Jan 08 Mar May Jul 08
CM1 Level CM 1 CM 2 CM 3 CM 4
Sep
Nov
Jan 09
Mar
1CM 2IF
Description BN Level Ops, IF2 Enables BN Level Ops with IF Spt Co Level Ops with IF Spt Unit Formed, No Capability 10
NATO OTAN
Summary of 2009 Deliberate Operations ANSF has led an average of 44 Deliberate Operations per week. Average of 83 total deliberate operations conducted per week. On average, the ANSF has led 53% of Deliberate Operations conducted during a given week in 2009. Summary of 2008 Deliberate Operations ANSF led an average of 22 Deliberate Operations per week. Average of 37 total Deliberate Operations conducted per week. On average, the ANSF led 61% of Deliberate Operations conducted during a given week in 2008.
75
60
48
56 51 43 35 27 23 22 21 28 32 30 29 27 28 36 47 44 41 36 38 38 34 31 31 45 45 44 39 41 39 49 44 45 37 45 36 44 37 42 39 47 42 34 32
41
40
31 26 28 24 19 12 7 19 11 18 12 19 18 19 13 17 23 24 22 22 20 19 21 28 27 22 23 32 34 30 28 27
20
3-Aug-08
10-Aug-08
17-Aug-08
24-Aug-08
31-Aug-08
5-Oct-08
2-Nov-08
9-Nov-08
12-Oct-08
19-Oct-08
26-Oct-08
16-Nov-08
23-Nov-08
30-Nov-08
4-Jan-09
5-Apr-09
12-Apr-09
19-Apr-09
11-Jan-09
18-Jan-09
14-Sep-08
21-Sep-08
28-Sep-08
14-Dec-08
21-Dec-08
28-Dec-08
25-Jan-09
15-Feb-09
22-Feb-09
15-Mar-09
22-Mar-09
29-Mar-09
26-Apr-09
7-Sep-08
7-Dec-08
1-Feb-09
8-Feb-09
1-Mar-09
8-Mar-09
Week Ending
3-May-09
11
NATO OTAN
Ph 1: Shape
Ph 2: Clear
Ph 3: Hold
APPF Deployment
Ph 4: Build
Development Projects
Dec 08
Jan 09
Feb 09
Mar 09
Apr 09
May 09
Wardak
1 2 3 4 5
Class 2: - Phase 1 training began 25 Apr - 81 students from Jalreyz and Maydan Shahr)
1: Jalreyz 2: Maydan Shair 3: Nerkh 4: Chak-e Vardak 5: Sayed Abad
Continuing to conduct shaping operations in Nerkh and clear/hold operations in Jalreyz Forming plans for Chak-e Vardak - Conditions-based progression UNCLASSIFIED
12
Initial Districts
Counter-Narcotic Efforts
Interdictions
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Operations Labs Destroyed
0 Centrally Directed Eradications Governor Led Eradications 6,000
NATO OTAN
Eradications
2008 Total 2008 Year-to-Date 2009 Year-to-Date
4,000 3,000 2,000 1,174 1,000 3,884 2008 Year-to-Date 5,000 2009 Year-to-Date 5,058
68
68
18%
4,474
235%
2,644
59%
1,830
35 28 19
35
Total Eradications
Source: UNODC, Afghanistan Periodic Report on Poppy Eradication Survey, 25 April 2009.
17,935
UNCLASSIFIED
13
NATO OTAN
UNCLASSIFIED
14
NATO OTAN
Results from the last two surveys indicate a potential reversal in the downward trend of security perceptions. As of March, 85% say the security situation in their local area is good or fair.
64%
Sep 05
Dec 05
May 06
Sep 06
Jul 07
Apr 08
Jul Sep 08 08
Dec 08
Mar 09
15
UNCLASSIFIED
NATO OTAN
Nationwide
100% 19% 80% 17% 13%
51%
40%
40%
40%
35%
Nationwide Sep 08
Nationwide Dec 08
Nationwide Mar 09
Worse
The Same
Better
No Answer / Refused
16
UNCLASSIFIED
Freedom of Movement
Public Perception: How safe do you feel driving outside your Mantaqa during the day?
NATO OTAN
Overall, nearly 7 in 10 Afghans feel at least a little safe using the roads in their districts.
32%
Dec 08
Mar 09
26% 25%
25%
350 300
19%
10% 10% 8%
100 50
5% 1% 1% 0% Completely Safe Mostly Safe A Little Safe A Little Unsafe Very Unsafe Don't Know
0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 07 07 08 08 09
UNCLASSIFIED
17
NATO OTAN
Dec 08
30% 27% 25% 28%
Mar 09
24%
No. of businesses increased 56%; Gross sales increased 400% Household Income up 39% Irrigated land increased 47%
5%
School attendance up 8%
0% Very Dissatisfied Somewhat Dissatisfied Neither Somewhat Satisfied Very Satisfied
Source: USAID, Roads Socio-Economic Impact Assessment, May 6 August 8, 2008; compares information collected from Summer 2008 against baseline data collected in 2003.
UNCLASSIFIED
18
Little to No Activity
Adapts to Afghan local cultural and political environments Number of CDCs Elected as Change Colours
a Percent of CDCs Required 80 100% 60 80% CDC Not Required 40 60% 20 40% 0%
Source: ISAF; MRRD; as of 30 Mar 09.
Provides broad coverage and good performance with low-leakage rates Engenders local buy-in (requires 10% community contribution); highly popular program Serves as a front-line mechanism for the Hold and Build phases of the overall COIN strategy
UNCLASSIFIED
19
Education
Number of Students in School
7,000,000
NATO OTAN
MINISTRY OF EDUCATION ACCOMPLISHMENTS 9062 Schools in 2007; 10,998 in 2008 147,641 Teachers in 2007; 157,244 in 2008 26 million textbooks printed in 2008 Adult literacy program will serve 1,300 communities 2008 2013 Adult literacy rate is
6,000,000
Boys Girls
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
~ 28%
UNCLASSIFIED
20
NATO OTAN
Billions US $
40%
Are you satisfied/dissatisfied with the provision of services in the area? (Percent responding satisfied or very satisfied) 40%
25% 18% 28%
Dec 08 Mar 08 35% 33% 29% 30% 28% 25% 22%
20%
37%
30%
25%
35%
20%
30%
25%
10%
5%
0%
UNCLASSIFIED
Water
Healthcare
Electricity
Jobs/Employment
Source: IMF
Has your family's economic situation gotten better, stayed the same or gotten worse compared to 12 months ago?
10 8
21
NATO OTAN
100% 10% 80% 14% 17% 27% 60% 19% 19% 17% 15% 19% 18%
40%
77% 56%
68%
62%
63%
20%
Down arrow indicates change in color rating relative to previous survey (i.e. Zabul changed from Neither to AGE Most Influence) Up arrow indicates change in color rating relative to last survey
GIRoA Most Influence, but <50% say so Neither AGE Most Influence
UNCLASSIFIED
22
NATO OTAN
Dec 08
50% 43% 40% 50%
Mar 09
20%
10%
8%
7%
0% Right Direction
Source: ANQAR Survey; last version completed Mar 09.
Same Place
Wrong Direction
UNCLASSIFIED
NATO OTAN
UNCLASSIFIED
24
NATO OTAN
Nationwide
RC-Capital
RC-North
RC-East
25
NATO OTAN
Overall, nearly one third of the population hold a positive opinion of ISAF, one third hold a fair opinion, and nearly one third hold a negative opinion.
Dec 08
30%
Mar 09
18% 16%
13%
8%
8% 8%
5%
UNCLASSIFIED
26