Case

Leaked classified documents prove that Al-Qaeda has advanced nuclear and CBW capabilities and are preparing for an attack- the impacts are devastating Blake and Hope 2-2-11 [Heidi Blake is a reporter for The Daily Telegraph. She was nominated for Young Journalist of the Year and Scoop of the Year in the 2010 British Press Awards and was named Journalist of the Year, Feature Writer of the Year and Diversity Writer of the Year in the 2007 Guardian Student Media Awards and Christopher Hope is Business Correspondent, Industry Editor, Home Affairs Correspondent, Home Affairs Editor and is now Whitehall Editor at The Telegraph, WikiLeaks: al-Qaeda 'is planning a dirty bomb', http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/wikileaks/8296956/WikiLeaks-al-Qaeda-is-planning-a-dirty-bomb.html] A leading atomic regulator has privately warned that the world stands on the brink of a "nuclear 9/11". The WikiLeaks cables in full Security briefings suggest that jihadi groups are also close to producing "workable and efficient" biological and chemical weapons that could kill thousands if unleashed in attacks on the West. Thousands of classified American cables obtained by the WikiLeaks website and passed to The Daily Telegraph detail the international struggle to stop the spread of weapons-grade nuclear, chemical and biological material around the globe. At a Nato meeting in January 2009, security chiefs briefed member states that al-Qaeda was plotting a programme of "dirty radioactive IEDs", makeshift nuclear roadside bombs that could be used against British troops in Afghanistan. As well as causing a large explosion, a "dirty bomb" attack would contaminate the area for many years. The briefings also state that al-Qaeda documents found in Afghanistan in 2007 revealed that "greater advances" had been made in bio-terrorism than was previously realised. An Indian national security adviser told American security personnel in June 2008 that
terrorists had made a "manifest attempt to get fissile material" and "have the technical competence to manufacture an explosive device beyond a mere dirty bomb".

Alerts about the smuggling of nuclear material, sent to Washington from foreign US embassies, document how criminal and terrorist gangs were trafficking large amounts of highly radioactive material across Europe, Africa and the Middle East. The alerts explain how customs guards at remote border crossings used radiation alarms to identify and seize cargoes of uranium and plutonium. Freight trains were found to be carrying weapons-grade nuclear material across the Kazakhstan-Russia border, highly enriched uranium was transported across Uganda by bus, and a "small-time hustler" in Lisbon offered to sell radioactive plates stolen from Chernobyl.
In one incident in September 2009, two employees at the Rossing Uranium Mine in Namibia smuggled almost half a ton of uranium concentrate powder yellowcake out of the compound in plastic bags. "Acute safety and security concerns" were even raised in 2008 about the uranium and plutonium laboratory of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the nuclear safety watchdog. Tomihiro Taniguchi, the deputy director-general of the IAEA, has privately warned

America that the world faces the threat of a "nuclear 9/11" if stores of uranium and plutonium were not secured against terrorists. But diplomats visiting the IAEA's Austrian headquarters in April 2008 said that there was "no way to provide perimeter security" to its own laboratory
because it has windows that leave it vulnerable to break-ins. Senior British defence officials have raised "deep concerns" that a rogue scientist in the Pakistani nuclear programme "could gradually smuggle enough material out to make a weapon," according to a document detailing official talks in London in February 2009.

Agricultural stores of deadly biological pathogens in Pakistan are also vulnerable to "extremists" who could use supplies of anthrax, foot and mouth disease and avian flu to develop lethal biological weapons. Anthrax and other biological agents, including smallpox and avian flu, could be sprayed from a shop-bought aerosol can in a crowded area, leaked security briefings warn. The security of the world's only two declared smallpox stores in Atlanta, USA, and Novosibirsk, Russia, has repeatedly been called into doubt by "a growing chorus of voices" at meetings of the World Health Assembly documented in the leaked cables. The alarming disclosures come after President Barack Obama last year declared nuclear terrorism "the single biggest threat" to international security with the potential to cause "extraordinary loss of life".

urn - Our Haddad evidence says that the status quo guarantees violent youth protests, which only the plans civil society assistance can help solve. Saudi Arabia wants a stable Yemen, and is scared of unruly democratic protests
Knickmeyer 7/5 (Ellen, Researcher and Correspondent for Foreign Policy magazine, "Trouble Down South For Saudi Arabia: Yemen's implosion is a nightmare" 7-5-2011. http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/07/05/trouble_down_south?page=full ) JCP "Saudis more than anyone else don't like chaos. Change they can deal with; they don't like chaos.... For the Saudis, Yemen is a problem to manage. It's not a problem to be fixed," said a Western diplomat. The kingdom's supporters maintain that Saudi Arabia deserves credit for pushing a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) plan that would force out Saleh -- a longtime Saudi ally, though an unreliable one -- and bring new elections in Yemen. But can Saudi Arabia, among the most risk-adverse of states, tolerate the kind of unruly transition to democracy that demonstrators in Yemen's streets have been demanding for the past five months? Even in Saudi Arabia, many doubt it.

CP
Plan is key to uniquely key to soft power Hammond 11 [Andrew, Journalist for The National Journal, A Surge in soft power can repair the USs image, http://www.thenational.ae/thenationalconversation/comment/a-surge-in-soft-power-can-repair-the-uss-image]

The dramatic news about Osama bin Laden's death, especially when taken in combination with the ongoing "Arab spring", offers a remarkable window of opportunity for US policymakers seeking to encourage what President Barack Obama has called an "alternative narrative" for a disaffected generation in the Islamic world. For years after September 11, military and counterterrorism efforts dominated the US response to the atrocities in New York City and Washington, DC. Major successes were achieved, including the unseating of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. However, the overwhelming US emphasis on "hard power" has fuelled controversy, and ultimately US unpopularity, across much of the world in the subsequent decade. According to the 2010 Pew Global Attitudes Survey, in nine out of 15 countries for which relevant time series data is available, public favourability towards the United States lagged behind that recorded at the end of the Clinton administration. This phenomenon, which developed most
in the last decade is stark. In Turkey, for

intensely during the administration of George W Bush, comes despite the decline of anti-Americanism across much of the world since the election of Mr Obama in 2008. As the Pew data indicates, nowhere has US unpopularity been more evident than in the Islamic world. While countries such as Lebanon buck the trend, the general fall-off

instance, favourability of the domestic population towards the United States has fallen from some 30 per cent in 2002 to a very low 17 per cent in 2010. Equally, in Egypt, favourability has declined from 30 per cent in 2006 to 17 per cent in 2010. The decline in these numbers is so serious because of the concomitant erosion of US "soft power" - the ability to influence preferences of others derived from the attractiveness of a state's values, ideals and government policies, especially in foreign affairs. History underlines the key role that soft power has played as a means of obtaining desirable outcomes in world politics. For example, Washington used soft power resources quite skilfully after the Second World War to encourage other countries into a system of alliances and institutions such as NATO, the IMF, the World Bank and the United Nations. The Cold War was
subsequently won by a strategy of containment and cultural vigour which combined both soft and hard power. Almost 10 years after the September 11 attacks, the challenges posed by the US-led "campaign against terrorism", as with those of the Cold War, cannot be met by hard assets alone. This

is especially so as the anti-terrorism battle is a contest whose outcome is related, in significant part, to a battle between moderates and extremists within Islamic nations. Despite bin Laden's death, the United States and its allies will only secure greater success in meeting their goals if they demonstrate a capacity to win moderate Muslim support. It is in this context of a battle for "hearts and minds" that the significance of the Arab Spring lies. It remains unclear whether forces of freedom and
agenda of the remarkable events that have unfolded in North Africa and the Middle East. Now

democracy will ultimately consolidate their initial influence, or whether extremist groups such as al Qa'eda might profit from the vacuum of power. Bin Laden's death will, at least in the short term, demoralise some al Qa'eda operatives at the same time that the network's ideology is challenged by the largely peaceful and non-religious

that bin Laden is dead, one of the shrewdest moves that the Obama administration could make is relaunching the campaign against terrorism, and also prompt a "new beginning" in ties with the Islamic world that the president initially promised in his Cairo speech in June 2009. At a minimum, this would necessitate kick-starting the
machinery of US public diplomacy to "re-energise the [US] dialogue with the Muslim world" that Mr Obama has also pledged. In such a scenario, of course, US policy would continue to include a significant element of military and counterterrorism operations. However, barring a new attack on the US homeland, these elements could now be at least partially de-emphasised, particularly in Washington's planned drawdown of troops in Afghanistan within the next several years.

Soft power key to hegemony, the war on terrorism, and solving terrorism, disease, and climate change Joseph S. Nye Jr., created the theory of soft power, distinguished service professor and former dean of Harvards Kennedy School of Government, PhD in Political Science from Harvard, 3/7/08 (http://abs.sagepub.com/cgi/content/abstract/51/9/1351) Etzioni is correct that a successful policy of security first will require the combi- nation of hard and soft power. Combining the two instruments so that they reinforce rather than undercut each other is crucial to success. Power
is the ability to get the outcomes one wants. In the past,it was assumed that military power dominated most issues, but in todays world, the contexts of power differ greatly on military, economic, and transnational issues. These latter problems,

including everything from climate change to pandemics to transnational terrorism, pose some of the greatest challenges we face today, and yet few are susceptible to purely military solutions. The only way to grapple with these problems is through cooperation with others, and that requires smart powera strategy that combines the soft power of attraction with the hard power of coercion. For example,American and British intelligence agen- cies report that our use of hard power in Iraq without sufficient attention to soft power has increased rather than reduced the number of Islamist terrorists throughout the past 5 years. The soft power of attraction will not win over the hard core terrorists but it is essential in winning the hearts and minds of mainstream Muslims,without whose sup- port success will be impossible in the long term. Yet all the polling evidence

suggests that American soft power has declined dramatically in the Muslim world. There few more pages developing one for Iran

is no simple military solution that will produce the

outcomes we want. Etzioni is clear on this and highly critical of the failure to develop a smart power strategy in Iraq. One wishes, however, that he had spent a
Agent Counterplans are bad: A) Divert focus from the specifics of the topic: debate the same agent debate year after year B) Steals all the AFF: makes it almost impossible to be AFF C) Decontextualizes the topic literature: not a robust debate on which branch should increase H1-B visas D) Disads check all their education warrantsif its relevant, they can run it as a disad. Yemenis will accept Obamas assistance- hes more popular than other presidents Terrill 11 [W. Andrew, Middle East specialist at the Strategic Studies Institute, former Middle East nonproliferation analyst for the International Assessments Division of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and retired U.S. Army Reserve Lieutenant Colonel and Foreign Area Officer (Middle East), the Conflicts in Yemen and U.S. National Security, January, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA536229&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf%5Djap]
4. U.S. leadership must remain aware of the severe limitations of the Yemeni government in controlling its own territory, but it must also understand that there are no serious alternatives to the Saleh regime in dealing with the current threats to the region and the world emanating from Yemen. The United States must also maintain an ongoing and comprehensive dialogue with the Yemenis on ways that al-Qaeda can be defeated in Yemen. It might also be considered that President Obama is more

popular in the Arab World than most previous American presidents due to his well-received outreach efforts to the Muslim world. It may be possible that Yemen will find cooperation with President Obama to be less domestically controversial than cooperation with his predecessors. (--) Opponents of Obama will leak harmful information:

Chris Cillizza, 11/20/2008 (staff writer, http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/white-house/barack-obama-and-the-culture-o.html) Most, like Elmendorf, cited the fact that unlike on a campaign, where it is possible for a small group of people to keep confidential information, well, confidential, forming a government forces even the most leak-proof operations to expand greatly -- a growth that virtually ensures people with less loyalty to the president-elect will be privy to critical information. Joel Johnson, a former Clinton White House adviser, ascribed the proliferation of leaks to "healthy growing pains" as part of the Obama transition to the White House. "Campaigning and governing are completely different missions," Johnson said.
And turnExpanding the range of classified decisions actually increases the risk of leaksit makes secrecy impossible:

Holdren & Weeks, 2000 (John & Jennifer, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, March/April,
http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/69/energys_secrets.html) Hawks and doves should not be divided on this issue. If the Energy Department is to effectively protect sensitive nuclear information, it has to be able to prioritize and focus on information that is truly relevant to today's proliferation threats. Constantly expanding the universe of secrets to be protected will make this job impossible, and it will increase the long-run chances that important information may fall through the cracks.

Tradeoff
Non-unique- Glaser says were already sending more military and economic assistance- should have triggered the link Non-intrinsic- do the plan and fund Somalia food-aid Multiple bills trigger the link and funding is flexible Trister 11 [Sarah, Congressional liaison for Freedom House, an NGO dedicated to international research on democracy and human rights, Investing in Freedom: Analyzing the FY 2012 International Affairs Budget Request, May, http://freedomhouse.org/uploads/special_report/100.pdf] With democratic transitions in progress in Egypt and Tunisia, ongoing violence and protests in Syria, Bahrain, and Yemen, and full-out war in Libya, the Middle East and North Africa has become one of the highest priorities in terms of assistance for Congress and the Administration. Since the revolutions, the State Department has announced it would immediately make $150 million in aid available for support to Egypt and an additional $20 million available in support for Tunisia for FY 2011 by reprogramming funds that have already allocated. 10 Additionally, the United States has announced billions more in loans and other economic support to Egypt as it attempts to build its
economy after 30 years of stagnation. In terms of the FY 2012 request for the Near East, Freedom House is pleased to see that the request for the Middle East Partnership Initiative (MEPI) has received a 68% increase over FY 2010 amounts. MEPI has been an invaluable instrument for providing democracy and human rights assistance since its inception in 2002. Funds provided through MEPI are especially vital now, as they have the flexibility required to respond to the constantly changing environment in the region.

Alternate cause to regional piracy- lack of Somalian governance Atarodi 10 [Alexander, analyst at the Swedish Defense Research Agency, Yemen in Crisis Consequences for the Horn of Africa, http://www.nai.uu.se/research/nai-foi%20lectures/YemenIn-Crisis_AlexanderAtarodi.pdf] The increase in pirate attacks off the Horn of Africa is directly linked to continuing insecurity and the absence of the rule of law in war-torn Somalia. The absence of a functioning government in Somalia remains the single greatest challenge to regional security and provides opportunities for those engaged in piracy along the Somali coast. Somalia does not have the resources to tackle the problem without international help. One of the ambitions of the government in Somalia is to eradicate piracy in the country. But, given the fact that the government only controls a few districts of the capital, Mogadishu, it is difficult to imagine how it will deal with the pirates. 33 Most of the piracy activities are based in areas that are outside government control and where militant organizations such as al-Shabab are strong. There are reports indicating that pirates are giving as much as 50 per cent of their revenues to al-Shabab in those areas that are under the control of
the militant organization. 34 This links the militant terrorist organizations to criminal activities such as piracy. The two main groups are pirate networks based in different parts of Puntland. According to reports from the UN, Puntland has become the centre of piracy activities. These pirate networks are partly supported by some regional and local government officials who have benefited from piracy. 35 Consequently piracy off Puntlands coast has become an increasing problem for cargo ships from all over the world. 36 Every year an estimated 20,000 vessels pass through the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, either inbound to or outbound from the Suez Canal. In 2009, the number of incidents had almost doubled, although the number of successful

hijackings was less than in 2008. This can partly be attributed to the increased presence and coordination of the international navies Further political instability in Yemen will trade off with conservation efforts in Socotra- causes investor withdrawal Yahia 3-22-11 [Mohammed, editor at Nature Middle East- for over three years, Mohammed has worked on raising the profile of science and science journalism in the Middle East. He graduated from Cairo University with a bachelor degree in Pharmacy and Pharmacology, Foreign researchers flee Yemen leaving conservation programmes in trouble, http://www.nature.com/nmiddleeast/2011/110322/full/nmiddleeast.2011.36.html] Public protests in Yemen that began on 27 January have escalated, with security forces now using extreme violence to disperse demonstrators. Snipers killed over 50 people last Friday with shots mostly in the heads and chests. Several generals and soldiers have defected and now side with the protesters. As Western countries warn their citizens against travel to the country and are evacuating those already there, biologists are worried that conservation efforts in one of the region's richest areas for biodiversity, is under threat. Socotra Archipelago, dubbed the Galpagos of the Indian Ocean, is one such place concerning biologists. It lies about 380 kilometres south of mainland Yemen in the Arabian Sea. The main island, Socotra, is the largest Arabian island. With over 300 unique plant species, a third of the island's flora is endemic, found nowhere else in the world.
More than 90% of the reptile species on the island are unique. "In marine habitats, the extensive coral reefs bordering the island harbour a remarkably high biodiversity and provide an important source for local inhabitants. Both local culture and nature are strongly intertwined and mutually dependent," says Kay van Damme, an ecologist at Ghent University, Belgium, and chairman of Friends of Socotra. "Islands fascinate biologists because of a disproportionately large number of unique species, occurring on a relatively small area," he explains. The relative isolation of islands makes them ideal for biologists to study speciation and evolution. Unique life forms "Socotra Archipelago is interesting to biologists because it is an old, continental island, an ancient part of South Arabia that separated at the opening of the Gulf of Aden. It contains several plant and animal species no longer found, or no longer common, in Arabia or Africa and went extinct through time because of increased aridity," he adds. In 2008, Socotra was designated a world natural heritage site by the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO). Its unique and strange selection of flora and fauna has fascinated scientists for decades. The species Dragon's Blood Tree (Dracaena cinnabari) and the genus of strange, freshwater crabs, Socotrapotamon, are examples of some of the island's relicts. "Conservation in Yemen is centrally-based, depending largely on international support. Therefore changes or instabilities are thought to have indirect and direct effects on biodiversity," says van Damme. Abdul Karim Nasher, a zoologist at Sana'a University, Yemen, and editor-in-chief of the Yemeni Journal of Science, worries what affect the escalating tension will have on biological research on the island. "Right now most of the [conservation] work on Socatra comes from international agencies and overseas

research centres. The Yemenis involved are very few. Because of the unstable situation, many of the colleagues who used to visit us will not be able to come anymore." "International researchers are being pulled back to their respective countries or requested to stay available for possible

evacuation. Advised against all but essential visits by most Western governments, the doors towards Yemen close as embassies assess safety risks," says van Damme.

Researchers that have left Yemen are uncertain when they can return to Yemen or when their respective countries will give clearance again. Endangered conservation efforts Yemen is the poorest Arab state, and one of the least developed countries in the world. The island in particular
has few schools and suffers from a high infant mortality rate. For the residents of Socotra, ecotourism became a major source of income in the mid-1990s. "This was something that the conservation programmes on Socotra have actively encouraged," says Tony Miller, director of the Centre of Middle Eastern Plants at the Royal Botanic Garden in Edinburgh. The present situation could scare tourists off, cutting a major source of income for many people and leading them to look for alternative sources by turning to the natural world. "Over-grazing and unsustainable exploitation of plant resources increases, which in turn leads to environmental degradation this happens very rapidly in arid and semi-arid tropical and sub-tropical environments." As the uprising in Yemen continues, the uncertainty is having irreversible effects on biodiversity in Socotra. "Conservation depends on infrastructure, which in turn depends on long-term commitment from international organizations," says van Damme. The weakening of international commitment may break down this infrastructure. Exploitation of terrestrial and marine ecosystems could quickly follow, he warns.

Chinas government
No risk of effective Chinese protests- itll be squashed immediately Branigan 2-27-11 [Tania, China correspondent for the Guardian, China's jasmine revolution: police but no protesters line streets of Beijing, http://www.politicalfailblog.com/2011/02/chinas-jasmine-revolution-police-but-no.html] Few expected Chinese citizens to answer the "jasmine revolution" appeal, which urged them to express their desire for reform by "strolling" past a McDonald's on Wangfujing shopping street and spots in 22 other mainland cities. In addition to the heavy police presence, street cleaning vehicles and men with brooms swept back and forth along the designated streets in Beijing and Shanghai, preventing pedestrians from slowing down. A
construction site appeared on Wangfujing earlier this week, blocking off a stretch outside the hamburger bar. Associated Press reported that Shanghai police used whistles to disperse a crowd of around 200, although it was unclear if the people were anything more than onlookers. It said officers detained at least four Chinese citizens in the city and two others in Beijing. It was not clear, however, if those detained had tried to protest. In a statement, the Foreign Correspondent's Club of China said it was "appalled by the attack on one of our members by men who appeared to be plain clothes security officers in Beijing. This video journalist was trying to do his job when he was set upon and repeatedly punched and kicked in the face by officers as part of a general crackdown in Wangfujing following calls on the internet for a protest in this area. "More than a dozen other journalists who went to this part of Beijing to report had problems, including being manhandled, pushed, detained and delayed by uniformed police and others," it said. A handful of people sought to protest last Sunday following a similar message on the overseas

Boxun site. But no one knows who was behind the message they may well be abroad and many thought it a joke. "The idea that a Jasmine revolution could happen in China is extremely preposterous and unrealistic," said Zhao Qizheng, a former head of the government's information office, according to Hong Kong's Beijing-friendly Wen Wei Po newspaper. Most observers including those highly critical of the Chinese government agree. Although China downgraded its 2011 growth forecast on Sunday from 8% to 7% the country continues to enjoy a remarkable economic
rise that began 30 years ago and has lifted hundreds of millions out of poverty.

China can survive new political transitions with no impact Sinostand 8-22-11 [Reports and observations from a freelance journalist in Beijing whos written for Asia Times, Global Times and The Daily Telegraph, Chaos after a CCP collapse? Not so much, http://sinostand.com/2011/08/22/chaos-after-a-ccp-collapse-not-somuch/]
There are plenty of non-political things that can tank the economy, like a housing bubble, demographic decline, foreign financial collapses, protectionism, environmental catastrophe, natural disasters, etc. But contrary to what the Party would like everyone to believe and what all those (totally existent) foreigners who dream of seeing China in chaos believe, political upheaval doesnt seem to be a serious threat to the economy or the common persons well-being. This doesnt necessarily apply to developed countries as strongly though. Once theyre developed they rarely see more than 5% growth in a given year and become more vulnerable to market and political fluctuations, as you can see in this chart of the US and Japan: But it will be a long time before China gets to that point as a nation; around 40 years according to Dadush. So China could bounce back much more easily from any political crisis than these nations could. A prolonged civil war

might be different, but thats very unlikely. Even then, it wouldnt be as destructive as one would imagine thanks to the fundamental global business presence. Whatever replaced the CCP would certainly have significant long-term economic impacts, but the simple act of a power switch (nonviolent or otherwise) would hardly knock growth and the institutions supporting it out of place. Even in a country that, as we all know, has its own special circumstances. Im sure economists (which I am not) and others can poke holes in this theory. Tunisia isnt bounching back quite like Egypt, but it
wasnt growing as much to begin with either. And Libya is still in a drawn out civil war (again, extremely unlikely in China) and its recovery is yet to be seen. But none

of these countries come close to having the business apparatus and distribution network in place that China does, which are both hedges against chaos. Empirically, Chinese revolutionary protests dont causes regime collapse or large impacts Sinostand 8-22-11 [Reports and observations from a freelance journalist in Beijing whos written for Asia Times, Global Times and The Daily Telegraph, Chaos after a CCP collapse? Not so much, http://sinostand.com/2011/08/22/chaos-after-a-ccp-collapse-not-somuch/] The Party would have you believe that the country would dissolve into absolute chaos; that theyre the Elmers glue holding the whole rickety apparatus together. Without them, people would take to the streets to pillage, rape, torture, kill, etc. Plenty of foreign observers share that bleak outlook too. But a few weeks ago I spoke with Uri Dadush, former World Bank director of international trade and author of the book Juggernaut: How Emerging Markets Are Reshaping Globalization. He said Chinas GDP is projected to grow at around 5% annually for the next 40 years. Even if there is a political crisis, that doesnt mean that China will not grow, he said. In economic terms, revolutions arent as catastrophic as they appear to be, especially in recent history. This chart maps Egypts annual GDP growth for the past 50 years. This measure shows how much the GDP grew in a given year compared to where it was the previous year. Its good for highlighting economically disruptive events. Clearly, Egypt has always been a fairly turbulent country capable of enduring crises and quickly bouncing back, never dipping below 0% growth. But the most significant part is if this chart were extended to today. It would show a dip to 2% growth in the fiscal year ending this June, which included the Jasmine Revolution. Before the revolution, it was predicted to grow at around 5%. The government overthrow may have very briefly slowed growth and had some opportunity costs, but it was hardly chaos. Now Egypts economy is humming again and will probably hit 5% growth again by years end. Heres China over the past 50 years: The two largest dips were during government directed campaigns; the Great Leap Forward being especially catastrophic. Then in 1987-1988 there was massive (over 20%) inflation of the Yuan which partly enabled the Tiananmen Square uprising. The crackdown did scare away some investment. Growth slipped a bit but remained positive and quickly rebounded. No impact to Chinese protest- wont cause widespread instability

Chang 10 [Gordon, World Affairs Journal, The Party's Over: China's Endgame, http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/articles/2010MarApr/full-Chang-MA-2010.html] Political scientists generally support the idea that there can be smoke without fire. They argue that China lacks many of the factors that are thought to be requirements for revolutionary change. Because demonstrators in China today are directing their ire only against local grievances and have yet to form nationwide groups, for instance, most China watchers do not believe the Peoples Republic is in any particular danger. Many correctly argue that all modernizing societies experience discontent. To understand Chinas future, therefore, we have to distinguish change from instability, and instability from revolutionary unrest. aiwan arms sales are the focal point of US-China tensions- outweigh any other issue Lowther 8-20-11 [William, Washington correspondent, Taipei Times, China brings up arms sales with Biden,
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2011/08/20/2003511174]

The deeply sensitive issue of arms sales to Taiwan was raised during Chinese Vice President Xi Jinpings () first meeting with US Vice President Joe Biden in Beijing on Thursday. As expected, the issue was near the top of the Chinese agenda and no time was lost putting it on the table. Biden told Xi that the US intended to meet its commitments to Taiwan and added that there was also an overarching intention in
Washington to maintain peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait. However, senior White House officials, briefing US reporters traveling with Biden, refused to characterize in great detail what Xi and other Chinese officials said. Asked whether the Chinese brought up arms sales to Taiwan, one official answered: I will convey that they [the Chinese] underscored that this was a deeply sensitive issue in US-China relations and that they asked for the US to regard that seriously. A senior official said that he had found Xi to be extremely open and very engaged in back-and-forth conversations that were not at all scripted and that Xi was a very good listener and someone who you could really have a serious and interesting dialogue with. Another official said that when the issue of the Taiwan Strait came up, Biden said quite clearly that we welcomed the progress that has taken place in recent years between the two sides and he expressed his hope that this important process would continue into the future. The US official said that Bidens week-long Asian trip was part of a deliberate effort to deepen US engagement and influence in the region. A series of further meetings between Biden and Xi are planned and the Taiwan issue is almost certain to be raised again. One of the US officials said that the meetings with Xi provided a unique opportunity to get to know and build a relationship with him and get a deeper understanding of his views and perspectives on the issues of concern. Xi, Chinas presumed next leader, will also concentrate the talks on the global economy, trade and currency. A US official said that during their first meeting, the two vice-presidents talked about military-to-military ties, an issue on which Washington places enormous importance. In the past, Beijing has broken off such ties immediately following US announcements of new arms packages for Taiwan.

Economic interdependence guarantees resilient relations Obama will go out of his way to appease China Turkish Weekly 09 (Obama Makes First China Tour As Economic Interdependence Grows. http://www.turkishweekly.net/news/92650/-obama-makes-first-chinatour-as-economic-interdependence-grows.html) Pres. Barack Obama departs White House South Lawn in Washington for trip to Fort Hood, Texas, 10 Nov 2009When U.S. President Barack Obama arrives in China later this month, he'll head first to its booming commercial capital Shanghai. U.S.-Chinese economic ties are increasingly important to the two countries' overall relationship, so much so, that some believe Washington purposefully avoids raising contentious issues with China in an effort to curry favor with its leaders. Most reliable customer From shopping malls in the United States, stocked with Chinese-made goods, to busy Chinese factories where the goods are made, it's evident the two countries rely heavily on each other. And despite the global financial crisis, the United States remains China's most reliable customer, and Beijing, the world's biggest buyer of U.S. government debt. Nicholas Lardy, an economist and senior fellow at the Washington-based Peterson Institute, says China's unwillingness to adopt derivative loans and other high-risk financial products helped to shield it from the impact of the world economic downturn. It also dramatically changed its relationship with the United States. "Now of course the Chinese are beginning to lecture us, about how we need to balance our budget, and preserve the value of the dollar and avoid inflation... So, in a sense the shoe is really on the other foot," he said. Key player A Chinese youth carries soft drinks she bought at American fast food restaurant McDonald's (R) in Beijing (File)This year, China's economy is expected to grow by more than eight percent, and its overall resilience to the global financial crisis, has brought with it increasing confidence in

the international arena. Beijing is increasingly seen as a key player in dealing with global issues, be it helping to resurrect the global economy or combating climate change. With such growing clout, some believe the Obama administration has gone out of its way to avoid offending Beijing. Critics note that when the Dalai Lama recently visited the United States, President Obama delayed his meeting with the Nobel peace laureate until after his upcoming trip to China. They also say Washington has avoided the tough talk of previous administrations about the value of China's currency. "I think that they are taking a calculated risk and it is one that I would not advocate myself," said Randy Schriver, who heads the research group
Project 2049, which focuses on issues in the Asian region and the rise of China. US approach may not pay off He says the Obama administration's approach may not ultimately pay off. "It's a presumption that these are obstacles to cooperation, which in fact I think China has enough of their own interests and equities in - for example the economic situation - to cooperate irrespective of what we do on some of these other issues," he said. A tourist displays Chinese yuan (File) The value of the Chinese currency has long been a divisive issue, with China frequently accused of undervaluing its yuan to make its exports cheaper. On the campaign trail, Mr. Obama

accused China of currency manipulation. After stepping into office the Treasury Department has avoided harsher accusations and only expressed "serious concerns" about the "flexibility" of China's currency. Yet Nicholas Szechenyi of the Center for Strategic and International Studies says Washington's softer approach is not all soft. "It certainly seems, that the administration is trying to address issues of human rights a little less, to work more on economic issues, and other global issues such as climate change," he said. "On the other hand, you do have this strong push on tires
and perhaps even steel on the trade front. So I think it is a question of balance. And what you choose to engage the Chinese on," he said.

No CCP collapsethe government represses instability Pei 09 (Minxin, Senior Associate in the China Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 3/12. Will the Chinese Communist Party Survive the
Crisis? Foreign Affairs. http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/64862/minxin-pei/will-the-chinese-communist-party-survive-the-crisis) It might seem reasonable to expect that challenges from the disaffected urban middle class, frustrated college graduates, and unemployed migrants will constitute the principal threat to the party's rule. If those groups were in fact to band together in a powerful coalition, then the world's longest-ruling party would indeed be in deep trouble. But that is not going to happen. Such a revolutionary scenario overlooks two critical forces blocking political change in China and similar

authoritarian political systems: the

regime's capacity for repression and the unity among the elite. Economic crisis and social unrest may make it tougher for the CCP to govern, but they will not loosen the party's hold on power. A glance at countries such as Zimbabwe, North Korea, Cuba, and Burma shows that a relatively unified elite in control of the military and police can cling to power through brutal force, even in the face of abysmal economic failure. Disunity within the ruling elite, on the other hand, weakens the regime's repressive capacity and usually spells the rulers' doom. The CCP has already demonstrated its remarkable ability to contain and suppress chronic social protest and small-scale dissident movements. The regime maintains the People's Armed Police, a well-trained and well-equipped anti-riot force of 250,000. In addition, China's secret police are among the most capable in the world and are augmented by a vast network of informers. And although the Internet may have made control of information more difficult, Chinese censors can still react quickly and thoroughly to end the dissemination of dangerous news. Since the Tiananmen crackdown, the Chinese government has greatly refined its repressive capabilities. Responding to tens of thousands of riots each year has made Chinese law enforcement the most experienced in the world at crowd control and dispersion. Chinese state security
services have applied the tactic of "political decapitation" to great effect, quickly arresting protest leaders and leaving their followers disorganized, demoralized, and impotent. If worsening economic conditions lead to a potentially explosive political situation, the party will stick to these tried-and-true practices to ward off any organized movement against the regime.