Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and the Economics of Adaptation

Nikolay Khabarov, Michael Obersteiner, et al.

Ecosystems Services and Management Program International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria

TA-7465 (REG): Economics of Climate Change and Low Carbon Growth Strategies in Northeast Asia, 4th Regional consultation meeting 18 October 2011 Ministry of Environment, Tokyo, Japan

Integrated Global Data-Modeling System

Socio-economic scale
Population GDP Prices Diets Production Consumption Food trade Agricultural prices Changes in Livestock and Crop Production Systems Land use change

GLOBIOM

bio-physical impacts

Geo-spatial scale
Weather/climate data Soil data Topographical data Land use and crop management data (fertilization, irrigation, etc.)
Wind

EPIC Model
Solar irradiance Plant growth Operations Erosion Runoff Soil layers C, N, & P cycling Pesticide fate Precipitation

Comparative static/dynamic impact analysis

Representative EPIC modules

Biophysical Modeling of Cropland and Grassland Management

Processes:
Weather Hydrology Erosion Carbon sequestration Crop growth Crop rotations Fertilization Tillage Irrigation Drainage Pesticide Grazing Manure

EPIC
Rain, Snow , Chemicals Evaporation and Transpiration

Surface Flow

Subsurface Flow

Below Root Zone

Major outputs:
Crop yields (20 crops) Environmental effects (e.g. soil carbon) Various management systems: Subsistence Farming, High Fertilization, Full Irrigation

Global EPIC database: an overview

PX30 HRU Country

HRU&PX30 zone
real pixel area (ha) geographical position of SimU delineation reference to climate data mean altitude representative slope dominant STU (reference to analytical data) crop management data

SimU delineation geo-spatial database non-geo-spatial database

SimU delineation

Land cover class

Cropland Other agricultural land Grassland Forest Wetland Other natural land Not relevant

= SimU (for other LC than cropland)

Cropland LU
Subsistence Low input management system High input Irrigated high input

= SimU (for cropland)

crop share
Wheat Barley Rice ...

Global Land Cover (GLC2000; IFPRI, 2007)

Cropland: 0.9 bil. ha Other agri. land: 1.5 bil. ha Grassland: 1.1 bil. ha

Forest : 4.0 bil. ha Wetland: 0.2 bil. ha Other nat. veg. land: 2.5 bil. ha

20 Crops simulated on all GLC

BARL CASS CHKP CORN COTS COWP DRYB GRSG OATS PMIL PNUT POTA RAPE RICE RYE SOYB SPOT SUGC SUNF WWHT barley cassava chick peas corn cotton cow peas dry beans grain sorghum oats millet peanuts/groundnuts potatoes rape seeds rice rye soybeans sweet potatoes sugar cane sunflower wheat

3 Crop Input Systems simulated on all GLC

AN: automatic nitrogen fertilization N-fertilization rates based on N-stress levels (N-stress free days in 90% of the vegetation period). The upper limit of N application is 200 kg/ha/a. AI: automatic nitrogen fertilization and irrigation N and irrigation rates are based on stress levels (N and water stress free days in 90% of the vegetation period. N and irrigation upper limits of 200 kg/ha/a and 300 mm/a. SS: subsistence farming no N fertilizations and irrigation.

Total Global EPIC Simulations per GLC

Crop Lands (CRP) 102,878 SimU; 0.9 billion hectares Forest Lands (FOR) 154,912 SimU; 4.0 billion hectares Grass Lands (GRS) 93,074 SimU; 1.1 billion hectares Natural Vegetation Lands (NAT) 142,642 SimU; 2.5 billion hectares Other Agricultural Lands (OAG) 107,097 SimU; 1.5 billion hectares => 707,700 SimU x 20 crops x 3 input systems = 42,462,000 EPIC simulations
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EPIC Outputs in Global Database (average annual values)

Water Balance:
Rainfall (PRCP) [mm], Irrigation (IRGA) [mm], Potential EvapoTranspiration (PET) [mm], Actual EvapoTranspiration (ET) [mm], Runoff (Q) [mm], Subsurface flow (SSF) [mm], Percolation (PRK) [mm]

Nitrogen Balance:
Fertilization (FTN) [kg/ha], Deposition (NPCP) [kg/ha], Fixation (NFIX) [kg/ha],

EPIC Outputs in Global Database (II)

Nitrogen Balance
Nitrogen in Crop Yield (YLN) [kg/ha], Air Volatilization (AVOL) [kg/ha], Denitrification (DN) [kg/ha], Organic Nitrogen in Sediment (YON) [kg/ha], Soluble Nitrogen in Runoff (QNO3) [kg/ha], Soluble Nitrogen in Subsurface Flow (SSFN) [kg/ha], Soluble Nitrogen in Percolation (PRKN) [kg/ha], Nitrogen losses through Burnning (BURN) [kg/ha]

Carbon
Org. Fertilizer (FOC) [kg/ha], Crop Residue (RSDC) [kg/ha],
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EPIC Outputs in Global Database (III)

Carbon
Carbon in Crop Yield (YLC) [kg/ha], Carbon Respiration (RSPC) [kg/ha], Carbon in Sediment (YOC) [kg/ha], Carbon in Percolation (CLCH) [kg/ha], Carbon in Runoff (CQV) [kg/ha], Topsoil Organic Carbon (OCPD) [t/ha] Phosphorus Balance (not included in the database yet) Sediment losses (MUST, USLE, RUSL) [t/ha] Gross Nitrogen Mineralization (GMN) [kg/ha] Net Nitrogen Mineralization (NMN) [kg/ha] Nitrification (NITR) [kg/ha]
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Others

=> 36 EPIC Output Parameters in Global Database

=> 5 GLC x 20 crops x 3 input systems x 3 output files = 900 Output Files in total

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Current Global Simulations

Global EPIC Simulations under CC
~ 2000 (done) ~ 2050 (in progress) ~ 2100 (in progress) using Tyndall Climate Change Data, A1fi Scenario

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Mean Temperature change on cropland in 2050 in C (Base 2000)

Tyndall Climate Change Data, A1fi Scenario 14

Mean Temperature change on cropland in 2100 in C (Base 2000)

Tyndall Climate Change Data, A1fi Scenario 15

Annual Precipitation Change on cropland in 2050 in mm (Base 2000)

Tyndall Climate Change Data, A1fi Scenario 16

Annual Precipitation Change on cropland in 2100 in mm (Base 2000)

Tyndall Climate Change Data, A1fi Scenario 17

Corn Yields in t/ha (DM) on cropland, automatic fertilization and irrigation (AI management), (Base 2000)

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Changes in Corn Yields on cropland in 2050 in t/ha (DM), AI management system (Base 2000)

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Changes in Corn Yields on cropland in 2100 in t/ha (DM), AI management system (Base 2000)

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Changes in N fertilizer on cropland in 2050 in kg/ha, AI management system (Base 2000)

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Changes in N fertilizer on cropland in 2100 in kg/ha, AI management system (Base 2000)

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Changes in irrigation water on cropland in 2050 in mm, AI management system (Base 2000)

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Changes in irrigation water on cropland in 2100 in mm, AI management system (Base 2000)

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GLOBIOM: Global Biosphere Management Model

Basic resolution: 28 regions

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GLOBIOM: Sectors
AGRICULTURE FORESTRY BIOENERGY

Wheat Rice Maize Soybean Barley Sorghum Millet Cotton Dry beans Rapeseed Groundnut Sugarcane Potatoes Cassava Sunflower Chickpeas Oil Palm Sweet potatoes

Buffalo Cattle Sheep Goat Pig Poultry

Biomass for log production Fuel wood Other wood

Ethanol FAME Methanol Heat Electricity Biogas

Beef Lamb Pork Poultry Eggs Milk

Pulp wood Logs

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GLOBIOM: Input and output on different scales

SCALE INPUTS Population growth and GDP p.c. Bioenergy use Calorie intake p.c. Demand price elasticity Processing costs and coefficients International trade costs Crop parameters Grassland yield Livestock parameters Forest parameters Carbon stock (Internal transportation costs) Spatially explicit OUTPUTS

Prices Demand quantity Processed quantity Bilateral trade flows

28 regions

Land use Crop production Livestock production Intensification Wood production GHG emissions (CO2, CH4, N2O)

Global model with bottom-up approach

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GLOBIOM
Partial equilibrium model (endogenous prices)
Agriculture: major agricultural crops and livestock products Forestry: traditional forests for sawnwood, and pulp and paper production Bioenergy: conventional crops and dedicated forest plantations

Recursively dynamic (10 year periods) Maximization of the social welfare (PS + CS)

Supply functions
implicit: production system 1 (rainfed) production system 2 (irrigated) yield 1 + constant cost 1 yield 2 + constant cost 2

Demand functions
explicit: linearized non-linear functions

p = p * (q / q)1/ e
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GLOBIOM
International trade
Spatial equilibrium model Trade flows between individual regions (BACI database, CEPII) Homogeneous goods assumption - Within a region imported and domestically produced goods are valued equally no mutual trade - Differences in prices between regions are due to external trade costs Trade costs Trade barriers (MacMap database, ITC/CEPII) + Transport cost (Hummels, 2001) + Calibration

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GLOBIOM: Supply Chains

Unmanaged Forest Wood Processing Managed Forest Short Rotation Tree Plantations Cropland Bioenergy Processing Forest products: Sawnwood Woodpulp Energy products: Ethanol (1st gen.) Biodiesel (1st gen.) Ethanol (2nd gen) Methanol Heat Crops: Barley Corn Cotton Livestock Production Livestock: Cattle meat & milk Sheep & Goat meat & milk Pork meat Poultry meat & egg

Grassland

Other Natural Vegetation

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Forests G4M
Step 1: Downscaling FAO country level information on above ground carbon in forests (FRA 2005) to 30 min grid

Source: Kindermann et al. (2008) 31

Forests G4M
Step 2: Forest growth functions estimated from yield tables

Major outputs: Mean annual increment Tree size Sawn wood suitability Harvesting cost

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GLOBIOM: Livestock
Livestock Production System Approach

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GLOBIOM: Livestock
Livestock Production System Parameters Input parameters
Stover Bovine Milk & Meat Grains Bovines Cut&Carry Sheep & Goat Pigs Poultry Grazing CH4 Manure Shoat Milk & Meat Pig Meat Poultry Meat & Eggs

Output parameters

Occasional

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Adaptation options considered in the model

Crop production: Intensification (change in crop calendar, more fertil, more irrigation) Switching crops (crop variety genetically improved not considered) Relocation of crop fields International trade (strong trade and weak trade) Human consumption (diet shift) Livestock: Switching livestock production systems (animal diet change) Relocation of production International trade (strong trade and weak trade) Human consumption (diet shift)
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Thank you for your attention!

Nikolay Khabarov Michael Obersteiner Petr Havlik Aline Mosnier Erwin Schmid Mario Herrero

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Grassland Productivity Assessments

Two grassland productivity assessments for Mongolia. One is provided by International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), the other comes from the EPIC model (EPIC5). Grassland productivity is in tons of dry matter per hectare and year. The difference between the two maps indicates well the assessments uncertainties. Grassland management and soil degradation information from the country is needed to reduce uncertainties.

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Recent applied projects (Highlights)

DG Climate Action: EU LULUCF Reference Level for Forest Management accounting Baseline runs for the construction of country specific Reference Levels Accounting of emissions from FM will compare development of emissions from forestry against RL - Reviewed by UNFCCC DG Climate Action: EU Roadmap for moving to a competitive low-carbon economy in 2050 Contribution to the impact assessment DECC (UK, Depatment of energy and climate change), DEA (Dannish Energy Agency) Global Forestry Emissions Projections and Abatement Costs Feeding MACCs for forestry activities into GLOCAF model World Bank: Congo Basin WWF Living Forest Report Packard Foundation: USA climate policies international leakage

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GLOBIOM: Drivers and Output

Main exogenous drivers:
Population GDP Technological change Bio-energy demand (POLES team) Diets (FAO, 2006)

Output:

Production Q
- changes in crop & livestock production systems - land use change - water use - GHG

Consumption Q Trade flows (incl. food trade) Prices (incl. agricultural products) 39