Adaptation to Climate Change in Japan

ADB regional consultation meeting October 18, 2011 Yutaka Matsuzawa Ministry of the Environment Japan

Outline
Climate change and impact in Japan Current Policy actions for Adaptation in Japan Toward National Adaptation Strategy/Plan

CO2 concentrations are increasing every year in Japan as well.

Ryori
Minamitoris hima Yonagunijima

Carbon dioxide concentration (ppm) (

From JMA Climate Change Monitoring Report 2009

Year

Rate of increase in average annual temperature in Japan: 1.13 per 100 years Annual average temperature anomalies in Japan Anomaly () (
17 observation stations used in calculating the rate of increase in the average temperature in Japan (locations that are affected very little by urbanization have been selected as observation stations)

From JMA Climate Change Monitoring Report 2009

Increased frequency of years of heavy or light annual rainfall The range of annual fluctuations in precipitation has been expanding
Average for 19011930 103.69.8% Average for 198019802009 99.7 99.712.0%

Ratio to normal Ratio to normal

Annual precipitation ratios to the normal From JMA Climate Change Monitoring Report 2009

Unlike the global average, no clear rise in sea level has been seen along the Japanese coast over the 100 years The rate was 4.9 mm/year from 1993 to 2003

From JMA Climate Change Monitoring Report 2009

Fig. Inter-annual variations in atmospheric and oceanic CO2 in summer (oceanic only) and winter averaged between 7N and 33N along 137E from 1984 to 2009.

From JMA Annual Report Environment Monitoring 2009

on

Atmospheric

and

Marine

Observed extremes in Japan

Phenomenon and trend Likelihood that trend occurred post 1960, IPCC AR4 Very likely Observation in Japan Projections in IPCC AR4 and Japan Warmer and fewer cold days and nights Warmer and more frequent hot days and nights Heavy precipitation events Intense tropical cyclone activity increases

Significantly decrease

Virtually certain (IPCC); Decrease (JPN)

Very likely

Days with Virtually Tmax35 increase certain (IPCC); C significantly Increase (JPN) Days with precipitation of 100mm increase significantly Very likely (IPCC); Increase in summer (JPN)
Likely (IPCC); Total number decrease, number of strong cyclones increase (JPN)

Likely

Low confidence in robustness of observed long-term increases (WMO 2009)

No clear trend

The frequency of days of heavy rainfall with daily precipitation exceeding 100 mm has been increasing The frequency of strong rainfall in a short time
Number of days with daily precipitation exceeding 100 mm (per single observation point)
Average for 19011930 0.84 times
Annual number of days per single observation point

(Reference) Annual frequency of strong rain in a short time (more than 50 mm per hour) (per 1,000 observation points)
Average for 19982009 233 times

Average for 19802009 1.01 times Average for 19761986 160 times
Yearly frequency (per 1,000 points)

Average for 19871997 177 times

Year

Year

From JMA Climate Change Monitoring Report 2009

The annual number of hot days (T max35) increased significantly in 1931-2009 and average of the recent 30 years reached 1.6 times that of 1931-1960.

From JMA Climate Change Monitoring Report 2009

No particular trend is seen in the number and ratio of formations of strong tropical cyclones (max wind33m/sec).

Track of cyclones in 2009 Number and ratio of cyclone formations with maximum winds of 33m/sec

Perception of climate change in Japan

I believe climate is changing (%) 100 90 80 70 60 50 women men

Age class

Food
Incidence of white immature rice grain (cloudy hulled rice

Floods

Heat injuries and infectious diseases

Record high numbers of heat stroke patients seen in many cities in 2007
Total Chiba 23 wards of Tokyo Municipalities in Tokyo Yokohama Kawasaki Nagoya Hiroshima

patients per city

Milky white rice kernel

White-back kernel

Basal immature kernel

White immature grain in paddy rice

Damaged Tomato

[Above] Suntanned oranges [Below] Rind puffing symptoms in mandarin oranges

Poor coloration of grapes

Bad

Normal

Patients

Flood (MLIT)

Extraordinary

weather

Extreme events

Trends in number of heat stroke patients per city

In 2007, Kumagaya city and Tajimi city recorded temperature of 40.9C, record high in Japan.

Days with precipitation of 100 mm increased significantly in the period 1901 2009

Expansion of distribution area of the Asian tiger mosquito transmitting dengue fever and other diseases

Annual number of days with precipitation of 100 mm

An increase in southern species and a decrease in northern species along coastal regions

Dispersion of Japanese deer

Arising Damages to crops and alpine plants Causes Shrinking population in rural areas and decrease in hunters Decrease in snow coverage

Ecosystem
Results of questionnaire carried out in 2009 show that phenomena, supposed to be caused by global warming, occur on many farm products.

Chaetodon auripes Bleaching and destruction southern species seen in of coral reefs Tokyo Bay recently

Extreme events

Food
Present

Northward shift of suitable lands for apple cultivation

Increased maximum daily precipitation in almost all regions

2060-69

Increased intensity of typhoons

Areas best suited for apples Warmer areas Cooler areas

Floods

Extraordinary

weather
Number of days with maximum temperatures exceeding 30

Impact that decrease in snow coverage may have on water resource security and annual stream-flow fluctuation patterns

Changes in distribution of suitable lands for apple cultivation

Increases in deaths, heat stroke, and infectious diseases due to heat waves

Water resources

Heat injuries and infectious diseases

Ecosystem
Possible expansion of distribution area of denguetransmitting Asian tiger mosquitoes and yellow-fever mosquitoes, etc.

Decrease in distribution areas suitable for beech tree forests,

Impacts on Food Production

Projected impacts Currently observed impacts Significant exacerbation of the Quality of paddy rice affected poor ripening of rice Quality of mandarin orange, Northward shift of suitable poor coloration of grapes lands for apple cultivation Fruit trees have been Northward shift of disease and affected, insect damage caused by high Vegetables and flowering temperatures plants have been affected, Water shortages during rice Livestock have been affected transplanting period Decrease in habitats for Delay in seaweed harvesting salmon and similar varieties period and northward shift of habitats for herring Northward shift of areas suitable for raising tiger puffers 5

Impacts on the Water Environment and Water Resources

Currently observed impacts Projected impacts Incidence of restrictions on Increased risk of drought waterwater-intake from drinking Increased landslide disasters water sources and water due to higher frequency of supply shortshort-term, concentrated Abnormal blooms of blueblueextreme rainfall green algae in lakes and Elevated water temperatures marshes (impact of water use in rivers, lakes and marshes, and aquatic ecosystems) dam reservoirs, and groundwater Increase in the use of groundwater as a Increased probability of blueblueconsequence of droughts, and green algae blooms the subsequent incidence of Salinization of groundwater land subsidence 6

Increased risks of both drought and heavy rain

Impacts on Natural Ecosystems

Currently observed impacts Decline/poor regeneration of beech forests, pine tree decay in countryside forests, and decrease in flora in alpine regions Dispersion of Japanese deer due to decrease in snow coverage Stagnation of vertical circulation of lakes and a reduction in dissolved oxygen at the bottom of lakes Reduction in the distribution of cold water fish in freshwater environments An increase in southern species and a decrease in northern species along coastal regions, and the bleaching and destruction of coral reefs Impacts on biological production in the open sea Earlier flowering periods, delay in leaves turning yellow, red, and falling off
7

Various impacts in the physical environment and relationships between species

Impacts on Natural Ecosystems

Projected impacts beechDecrease in distribution areas suitable for Japanese beech-tree forests, subalpine belts and subarctic coniferous forests Rapid decrease in alpine plant communities in Hokkaido CO2 emissions from forest soil in cold districts Increased stagnation of vertical circulation in lakes and oceans Changes in species distribution in freshwater regions, and invasion of new alien species Increased impact due to ocean acidification Changes in food chain caused by diminishing sea ice in the Okhotsk Sea Changes in migration routes of migratory organisms Increase in coral breaching and disease, and reduction in sandy beach environments

Various impacts in the physical environment and relationships between species

Impact on Disaster Prevention and Large Coastal Cities

Currently observed impacts Incidence of damage along the Nabae Coast of Kochi Prefecture caused by storm surge in 2004 Increased frequency of corridor submerging at Itsukushima Shrine Inundation damage to underground space due to record levels of torrential rainfall in northern Kyushu Increased frequency of narrow-area, short-term, concentrated narrowshorttorrential rainfall Decrease in the amount of water that can be stably supplied from dams in the Kiso River system

Increased damage due to heavy rain, typhoons, and rising sea levels

Projected impacts Possible storm surge damage in bays facing southeast, as a result of shifts in typhoon course Increased wind speeds and ocean waves caused by typhoons Increase of wave overtopping rates and coastal erosion due to sea level rise Erosion and loss of sandy beaches due to sea level rise 90% one(disappearance of 90% of sandy beaches with a one-meter rise in the sea level) Decrease in flood control safety levels for all of Japans water systems Increased frequency of landslide disasters due to melting of snow
8

Increased damage due to heavy rain, typhoons, and rising sea levels

Impact on Disaster Prevention and Large Coastal Cities

Projected impacts Three major bays in Japan are vulnerable with storm surge cyclone. coupled with sea level rise and hit of tropical cyclone.

Increased damage due to heavy rain, typhoons, and rising sea levels

Impact on Disaster Prevention and Large Coastal Cities

Depth of flood caused by storm surge in three major bays in 2100

8

Impacts on Health
Currently observed impacts Projected impacts Increase in excess mortality Increase in excess mortality due to heat stress due to heat stress Record high numbers of heat Increase in number of heat (Tokyostroke patients seen in many stroke patients (Tokyo-based FY2007 cities in FY2007 and 2009 projection) Expansion of distribution area Possible expansion of dengueof the Asian tiger mosquito distribution area of dengueetc. transmitting dengue fever, etc. transmitting Asian tiger yellowNorthward shift of areas mosquitoes and yellow-fever where Vibrio vulnificus is mosquitoes being detected in seawater
9

Increased risks of heat stress, heatstroke, and infection

Impacts on Peoples Life and Urban Life

Impacts over a wide area including safety, health, economic life, comfort, and cultural life
Currently observed impacts Rise in international prices of wheat, corn, soybeans, etc. etc. Earlier blossoming of flowers and delay in leaves turning red and falling off Impact caused by changes in the natural environment and climate conditions in the tourist and sports industries Increased frequency of reports of Akenoumi (no freezing of Omiwatari the lake) and No Omiwatari at Lake Suwa, where there has Omiwatari, long been a phenomenon called Omiwatari, where cracks appear on the frozen surface of the lake Increased frequency of corridor submerging at Itsukushima Shrine
10

Impacts on Peoples Life and Urban Life

Projected impacts Loss of human life, property, and human habitats, due to extreme weather damage Impacts on regional transportation, communications facilities, etc. etc. due to extreme weather Increases in deaths, heat stroke and infectious diseases Increased burden on household budgets due to increased prices of agricultural products and extensive use of air conditioning Increased discomfort in everyday life due to an increase of extremely hot days and hot nights Impacts on tourist industries and opportunities for recreation, due to changes in and loss of ecosystems Impacts on sports industry due to reduced snowfall Impacts on local culture and loss of a sense of the seasons due to snow shortages and changes in cherry blossom season

Impacts over a wide area including safety, health, economic life, comfort, and cultural life

10

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Damage Costs by Scenarios

The world
18 16 14 18 16 14 18 16

450s
D D a a m m a g g e e C o s s t ( T T r i l l l l i o o n n Y Y e n n / Y e e a r r ) )
2020s 2030s 2040s 2050s 2060s 2070s 2080s 2090s
2 0 2 0 s 2 0 3 0 s 2 0 4 0 s

550s
D D a a m m a g g e e C o s s t ( T T r i l l l l i o o n n Y Y e n n / Y e e a r r ) )
2020s 2030s 2040s 2050s 2060s 2070s 2080s 2090s
2 0 5 0 s 2 0 6 0 s

SRES B2 14
12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2020s 2030s 2040s 2050s 2060s 2070s 2080s 2090s

Reducing damage by mitigation

18

( 2)

2 0 7 0 s

2 0 8 0 s

2 0 9 0 s

D D a a m m a g g e e C o s s t ( T T r i l l l l i o o n n Y Y e n n / Y e e a r r ) )
/
8

12 10 8 6 4 2 0

12 10 8 6 4 2 0

Reducing damage by adaptation

Japan

Flood Area Sandy Beach Loss Loss of Suitable Habitats for F. crenata Forests

Slope Collapse Heat Stress Morta;ity Risk Storm-Surge Flooding (Western Japan)

Affected sector or Aging Impact Food production Aged farmers Aged urban Water resources residents Disaster and coastal zones

Vulnerability in Japan
Urbanization

Heat waves

Few farmers Risk of shortage of water supply in populated area Aged exposed 3 major Weak residents both populated area community in urban and located in low based remote land coastal DRM zones Aged urban Coupled with Isolated residents heat island aged residents phenomena

Collapse of community

monitoring projection

Impact assessment

Adaptation Short term

Adaptation Long term

R&D

JMA

ECV

Climate Model

Monitorin g Climate Model

MILT ECV, Water

Hydrologi cal Model

Disaster risk, Water resources

implement considerat DRM ed ion WRM Climate resilient species Research in specific area Common guidance Integrated research

MAF Forest, Crop F Crops, etc. growth Model MEX ECV T MOE ECV Climate Model Social Scenario

Food sector implement ed Overall assessment Over all Common assessment guidance

Initiatives by the MOE

Specific Procedures for Planning/Implementation

32

What is wise adaptation?

Adaptation means making adjustments in natural or human systems in response to climate change. Wise adaptation includes a range of effective and efficient adaptation measures that are based on local vulnerability assessment and future projection of climate change.
Enhanced monitoring Local vulnerability assessment Consideration of both short term and long term impacts
6 5 4 Disaster prevention plans 3 2

Utilization of a range of options

Mainstreaming of adaptation (integration

with existing policies)

1 0

Options of measures Cooperation with relevant organizations

Consideration of safety factor

hard options

soft options

33

A systems approach for integrated assessment of vulnerability and resilience

Concept of Wise Adaptation

1. Utilize the latest regional vulnerability assessment and monitoring results Application to regional priority, establishment of early warning systems 2. Review and combines the diverse adaptation options Both hard and soft measures, technologies, legal systems, economic approaches, information preparation, and capacity development

16

Concept of Wise Adaptation

3. Consider the clearance as well as the temperature range that the adaptation measures can handle from both the short term and the long term perspectives Comprehensive evaluation within the range of uncertainty, and consideration of structural renovation and disaster recovery 4. Integrate existing disaster prevention plans and other policies if they exist, pre-existing policies preIncorporation of adaptation into land use planning, city planning, agricultural policies, natural preservation policies and environmental policy with local authorities
16

Concept of Wise Adaptation

5. Make natural and socioeconomic systems more flexible and adaptive Improvement of water utilization system, review of urban structure coupled with heat island countermeasures, securing refucia and ecological etc. corridors, etc. Co-benefit6. Promote Co-benefit-type Adaptation Promotion of adaptation measures that can bring coco-benefits for local environment, society, economy or mitigation of climate change as well as objective. realization of its own objective.
16

Examples of the Options for Adaptation Measures (1)

Technological Options
Technology Food
Development and introduction of hightemperaturetolerant varieties Shift in cultivation areas Change in cultivation methods Controlling feedlot environments Shift in aqua culture areas, and development of aqua culture technologies Introduction of raw water transmission and discharge control systems Desalination of sea water Use of treated sewage water and rain water Prevention measures against Groundwater salination Eutrophication control measures Dissemination of watersaving devices

Policy Options
Legal System Human Resources

Socioeconomic Options
Social System Economic System
Utilization of mutual aid systems ( quick provision of damage information, and using the information in compensation claims) Levy system in regulations for the use of deep groundwater to control land subsidence

Information and Knowledge

Water Environ ment and Water Resourc es

Selection of water purification processes

Improvement of water supply (conversion from agricultural water to drinking water based on decrease of arable lands) Restriction of deep groundwater pumping to control land subsidence

Raising of water saving awareness

Intensification of farmland and reallocation of water rights Introduction of mechanisms for regional flexible transfer of water during droughts

Collection and organization of information from promoters of agricultural improvement

Development of mechanisms to support and advise on adaptation measures for elderly farmers Adjustment of fishing seasons to suit fish migration routes and fishing ground formation

Provision of information and human resources development to promoters of agricultural improvement and farming advisors

Reconsideration of irrigation customs as a result of changes in cropping seasons and delayed drainage seasons

13

Examples of the Options for Adaptation Measures (2)

Technological Options
Technology Natural Ecosyst em
Designation and preservation of refugia Establishing corridors Conversion of artificial cedar forests to natural forests Early detection and prevention of pine wilt Installation Installation of deer fences in alpine ranges Reduction in environmental load substances

Policy Options
Legal System
Reconsideration and new designation of nature preserves Regulations of artificial transplantation and fish release Restrictions on tourist activities

Socioeconomic Options
Social System
among Consensusbuilding among relevant entities regarding the identification of and response to climate change impacts Establishment of voluntary organizations for disaster prevention

Information and Knowledge

Development of monitoring systems for each ecosystem

Human Resources
Training of volunteers to cooperate in monitoring Awareness raising regarding treading pressure reduction on alpine flora and in wetlands, and protection of coral reefs Implementation of training and education of disaster prevention

Economic System

Disaster Preventi on and Large Coastal Cities

Alterations in architectural styles Maintenance and improvement of coastal protection facilities Enhancement of drainage systems Development of super levees with multiple function Effective utilization of existing facilities and extension of their lifetime Comprehensive sediment control in rivers and coasts Reorganization of dam systems

Hazard maps Info services Upgrading of monitoring

Changes and regulations of land use based on disaster prevention (i.e., relocation of housing, prohibitions and restrictions on construction in dangerous zones Integrated coastal zone management

Establishme nt of a system of inundation insurance for residents Establishme nt of funds and subsidies for post-disaster restoration

13

Examples of the Options for Adaptation Measures (3)

Technological Options
Technology Health
Development of vaccines and new medicine for infectious disease Removal of suitable condition for emergence of vector mosquitoes, larval control Suspending the emission of air pollutants

Policy Options
Legal System Human Resources

Socioeconomic Options
Social System
Support for initiatives at workplaces and schools

Information and Knowledge

Economic System

Citizens Life and Urban Life

and heat alert

Establishment of voluntary organizations for disaster prevention

Strengthening buildings to mitigate damage Utilization of heatblocking and heatinsulating paints and building materials Removal of suitable condition for emergence of vector mosquitoes and sanitary pests Promotion of treeplanting

Provision dissemination hazard maps Provision utilization of stroke information

and of

Heat-related countermeasures for the elderly, etc. (i.e., utilization of neighborhood associations and care systems, etc. Cool Biz campaigns Daylight savings time

Implementation of training and education of disaster prevention

Production and distribution of health care guide manuals for heat stroke, etc. Thorough surveillance of infectious diseases Surveys on the incidence and distribution of vectors

Establishment of Capacity institutions and development for regulations for heat prevention stroke prevention planning Care for elderly Raising of public households (i.e., awareness on utilization of care health care systems, and care provided by neighborhood associations or volunteers, etc

Reduction of the extreme weather risk by using weather derivatives

13

Examples of the Options for Adaptation Measures (4)

Technological Options
Technology
Develop ing Countries

Policy Options
Legal System Human Resources

Socioeconomic Options
Social System Economic System

Information and Knowledge

Agriculture: changes in irrigation areas and systems Water resources: collection of rainwater, prevention of soil erosion Ecosystems: reduction of habitat fragmentation, establishment of corridors and buffer zones Disaster prevention and coasts: protection of wetlands; artificial drawdown of glacier lakes Health: Improvement of health facilities; application of technical solution to prevent vectorborne diseases

Agriculture: provision of weather forecast information Water resources: water resource monitoring to readjust national plans Ecosystems: monitoring of vulnerable ecosystems Disaster prevention: and coasts enhancement of early warning systems for weather and hydrology services

Agriculture: establishment of grain banks Water resources: development of water resources; flood, and drought control systems Ecosystems: enhancement of forest management Disaster prevention: and coasts: preparation of risk management plans against sea level rise Health: Public health policies that recognize climate risks

Agriculture: education and implementation programs on the conservation and management of soil and water Ecosystems: capacity building for organizations to regulate land use

Health: -Agriculture: crop improvemen species t of public insurance; education providing and literacy preferential tax rates treatment and subsidies -Water resource: bank loans for the purchase rainwater storage tanks -Ecosystems: management policies that include socioeconomic factors Disaster prevention and coasts: review of related insurances -Industry: diversification of tourism resources

13

Initiative by Relevant ministries

MILT (DRM) Rain water storage Land use management Disaster Risk Information (Hazard Map, Real time rainfall and river water level data) X band radar observation Flood control management plan Flood Evacuation Plan

Initiative by Relevant ministries

MAFF (Agriculture) Impact monitoring (2007) R & D on high temperature tolerant species Pilot and dissemination of developed tolerant species Technical support from expert team on the ground Information sharing network

Actions by local governments in Japan

Level of actions Level 0 Level 1 Level 2 Type of actions No idea and no action No monitoring Study on Adaptation Monitoring Identifying of affected sector but no implementation Consideration of Institutional arrangement Identifying adaption measures Incorporated into existing sector development plans Implementation of adaptation measures Planning of local adaptation plan and local regulations Full implementation Percentage of local gov. 3% 29% 45%

Level 3 Level 4

18% 5%

Level 5

0%

Bill of the Basic Act on Global Warming Countermeasures: not yet passed through the Parliament

Quantitative assessment of climate change impacts at the national and local levels Development of impact assessment and adaptation policy tools for local governments and developing countries Contributions to IPCC AR5 and other international initiatives

Fine resolution climate prediction

AP Adaptation Network

Theme 2
Study on adaptation policy measures to be mainstreamed into local government development policies

Theme 1
Study on finer resolution qualitative assessment of climate change impacts in Japan at the national and local levels

Theme 3
Study on indicators for vulnerability assessment and measuring the effect of adaptation in developing countries
Disaster Health

Food

Forest

Contribution to policy making processes

48

Observation Projection/ Assessment

Observation of climate change Observation of impacts of climate change Projection of climate change Projection/assessment of climate change impacts Planning of adaptation measures Vulnerabilities/adaptation capacity/risk assessment Study of short-term initiatives Study of medium and long-term initiatives Implementation of adaptation measures Implementation of short-term initiatives Implementation of medium and long-term initiatives PDCA cycle, including assessment of measures

Adaptation

49

Cross-sectoral Trans-sectoral collaboration Collaboration btw the national and local governments Information infrastructure Methodology Human resources Revenue source Public relations Scientific research Institutional basis

Sector-specific Technical development Human resources Collaboration btw the national and local governments Trans-regional collaboration Adaptation projects

50

Synthesis Report : Climate Change and Its Impacts in Japan http://www.env.go.jp/en/earth/cc/report_impacts.pdf Climate Change Monitoring Report 2009 JMA http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/en/NMHS/indexe_ccmr.html IPCC 4th Assessment Report

(MEXT/JMA/MOE)

http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_reports.shtml#1 Global Warming Impacts on Japan (Project team for Comprehensive Projection of Climate Change Impacts ) http://www.nies.go.jp/s4_impact/English/seika-e.html Wise Adaptation to Climate Change The Committee on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Research) http://www.env.go.jp/en/earth/cc/wacc_080618.pdf

Climate Change Adaptation: Approaches for National and Local Governments The Committee on Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation http://www.env.go.jp/en/earth/cc/adapt_guide/index.html

Thank you for your attention!