Sea-level rise:

Impacts and Adaptation Costs for Japan, South Korea and China Robert J. Nicholls1, Jochen Hinkel2 and Susan Hanson1
1. Faculty of Engineering and the Environment University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ United Kingdom 2. European Climate Forum, Potsdam, Germany

ADB Project Meeting, Tokyo 18 October 2011

Plan
Introduction DIVA Model Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change (EACC) Study The ADB study Concluding Remarks

Introduction

Coastal Trends
Rising local and global risks

Population
Large and growing coastal population (double global trends) Urbanising coastal zone (new residents are urban) Tourism, recreation and retirement

Subsiding cities in susceptible locations, especially in deltas Climate change and sea-level rise A reactive approach to adaptation

Coasts and People

Population and economic density in the coastal zone is greater than other areas of the earths surface.

Source: Nicholls and Small, 1993, Journal of Coastal Research

Port City Locations

>1 million population in 2005 136 cities globally and 24 cities in the study area (18%)

Source: Nicholls et al., 2008, OECD Report

DIVA (Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment) Model

DIVA
Developed by EU-funded DINAS-COAST Project:
Potsdam Institute for Climate Change Research (PIK), University of Southampton (was Middlesex University), ESRI (was Hamburg University), Delft Hydraulics (now Deltares), Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam.

An integrated tool to explore sea-level rise Comprises data and algorithms Considers impacts at national, regional and global scales Adaptation is an integral component

Impacts/Responses to Sea-level Rise in DIVA

NATURAL SYSTEM EFFECTS
1. Inundation, flood and storm damage a. Surge (sea) b. Backwater effect (river) Forbid hard defences Sediment nourishment Beach nourishment

SELECTED ADAPTATIONS
Dikes

2. Wetland loss (and change) 3. Erosion (direct and indirect morphological change) 4. Saltwater Intrusion a. Surface Waters b. Groundwater

5. Rising water tables/ impeded drainage

DIVA structure
Data Repository DINAS DB DIVA Data DIVA Data DIVA Data Delft-Tools GUI

DIVA Data

DIVA CD-ROM

Model M1 M2 M3 Load Modules

Module Repository Scientific Knowledge Module

DIVA database
Derived from existing and new global data stored in a geodatabase; Mapped to 12,148 linear segments of similar vulnerability; Comprises about 100 natural, ecological and socio-economic factors; Deltas have subsequently been added as a geographic feature.

DIVA segments

DIVA Structure
USER SELECTION
SOCIO-ECONOMIC SCENARIOS CLIMATE CHANGE/ SEA-LEVEL RISE SCENARIOS ADAPTATION OPTIONS

INITIALISATION
(for 1995)

IMPACT ASSESSMENT
(5 year time steps to 2100)
STORM SURGE BACKWATER EFFECT EROSION SALINISATION WETLAND LOSS/CHANGE

T=T+1

FLOOD RISK

WETLAND VALUATION

SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS

ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT

IMPACT METRICS
(for 2000 to 2100)

Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change (EACC) World Bank Study

Sea-level rise scenarios

(plus storm intensification scenario and EACC socioeconomic scenarios)

EACC Adaptation Options

Beach Nourishment Costs for beach erosion (using DIVA) Dike Upgrade (Capital Costs) for flooding (using DIVA) Dike Maintenance Costs for flooding (offline calculation now in DIVA) Port Upgrade Costs (offline calculation)

EACC Adaptation Anticipation of SLR

Beach Nourishment Costs Dike Upgrade (Capital Costs) Dike Maintenance Costs Port Upgrade Costs No Yes Yes No

EACC Impact Metrics

Land loss due to erosion (km2/yr) Land loss due to submergence (km2/yr) Forced migration (thousands/year) People actually flooded (thousands/year) Land loss costs (millions US$/year) Forced migration costs (millions US$/year) Sea flood costs (millions US$/year) River flood costs (millions US$/year)

EACC Summary
SEA-LEVEL RISE EFFECT (Long-term) Beach erosion IMPACTS CONSIDERED Land loss/costs Forced migration/costs Expected flood damage Increased flooding Expected people flooded Land loss/costs; Submergence Forced migration/costs Land use planning costs ADAPTATION RESPONSE Beach/shore nourishment Land use planning Sea and river dikes Port upgrade Land use planning Sea and river dikes

Incremental global average annual adaptation costs/residual damages (2010s-2040s)

(US$ billion per year at 2005 prices, no discounting). High income countries are excluded.
Sea-Level Rise Scenarios Costs and Damages Low SLR Medium SLR High SLR High SLR (with Cyclones) ADAPTATION COSTS: Beach Nourishment Port Upgrades River Dikes Capital Maintenance Sea Dikes Capital Maintenance TOTAL TOTAL RESIDUAL DAMAGE COSTS: 0.7 1.5 2.1 2.1 1.5 1.7 0.2 0.2 0.0 8.7 2.2 13.0 3.3 0.4 0.4 0.0 20.0 4.9 29.0 4.5 0.5 0.6 0.1 29.9 7.2 42.8 4.5 0.5 0.6 0.1 31.8 7.7 45.2 4.5 0.5 0.6 0.1 29.9 7.2 42.8 High SLR (No Pop. Growth)

ADB Study

ADB Study
Follow EACC approach Same SLR scenarios/storm sensitivity analysis New ADB socio-economic scenarios (China only) Improved input data, such as
delta subsidence rates new port areas in Japan new costs of upgrade from recent Dutch experience

Improved validation data, such as

actual defence standards in major cities

ADB Data Needs

Improved port and harbour areal extent Better longshore extent of sand beaches Observed coastal defence standards Coastal rivers
River name and location River average discharge River depth at mouth River bottom slope Number of branches at the mouth

Observed defence standards along coastal rivers

Example Output: Medium SLR Scenario

China: 11 Regions; South Korea: 7 Regions; Japan: 7 Regions

Excludes port upgrade

Port Upgrade (by 2050)

Example EACC China national results Low Scenario: US $3.5 billion Mid Scenario: US $5.7 billion High Scenario: US $7.6 billion Will split into Chinese provinces

Concluding Questions
Are the sea-level rise scenarios OK? The proactive adaptation rule stay with EACC study? Implications of the tsunami? The importance of the adaptation deficit? Other issues?

Sea-level rise:
Impacts and Adaptation Costs for Japan, South Korea and China Robert J. Nicholls1, Jochen Hinkel2 and Susan Hanson1
1. Faculty of Engineering and the Environment University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ United Kingdom 2. European Climate Forum, Potsdam, Germany

ADB Project Meeting, Tokyo 18 October 2011