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Broadcast/Outdoor 2009 Outlook--Lowering Industry, Company Ests
Sector Rating: Outdoor, Market Weight Sector Rating: Radio, Market Weight Sector Rating: Television, Market Weight
Ticker Stock Chng. Rating Y/N 2V 2V 2V 2 2V 2V 2V 2V 2 1V 2V 2V 2V 2V N N N N N N N N N N N N N N Price 01/05/09 $14.75 0.21 2.79 6.40 0.40 1.36 0.32 1.69 8.70 1.51 0.43 6.26 3.32 1.46 2008E $1.58 0.41 0.80 1.03 0.54 2.38 0.05 0.80 2.21 0.38 0.77 1.11 1.72 0.76 FY FCF Chng. Y/N 2009E Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y N $2.31 0.10 0.58 0.67 0.16 1.43 (0.11) 0.49 1.81 0.22 (0.15) 0.30 0.71 (0.18) FY P/FCF Chng. Y/N Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y 2008 9.3x 0.5x 3.5x 6.2x NM 0.6x 6.4x 2.1x 3.9x 4.0x 0.6x 5.6x 1.9x 1.9x 2009 6.4x 2.1x 4.8x 9.6x NM 1.0x NM 3.5x 4.8x 6.9x NM 20.9x 4.7x NM
January 6, 2009
Outdoor LAMR Radio CDL CMLS CXR EMMS ETM ROIAK SGA Television CBS EVC GTN HTV SBGI TVL
Source: Company data and WCM, LLC estimates NA = Not Available, NC = No Change, NE = No Estimate, NM = Not Meaningful 1= Outperform, 2 = Market Perform, 3 = Underperform, V = Volatile
Given the difficult macro environment and budget cuts across all ad categories, we are reducing our company and industry estimates for '09 and adjusting val ranges. OUTDOOR: LAMR HAS SOME TOUGH QUARTERS AHEAD. Given LAMR's significant exposure to local advertising (~82% as of 12/31/07), we anticipate significant declines in '09E with rev -11% and EBITDA -22%. While our revised model suggests that LAMR is approaching its 6x debt covenant, mgmt may reduce opex more than our conservative forecast (-1% y/y). We continue to believe that LAMR will be one of the first media stocks to rebound in a recovery, and we would look to upgrade the stock upon stabilization of rev. and EBITDA declines. TELEVISION: MACRO AND AUTO TRUMP RETRANS. In addition to the economic disaster and absence of political and Olympic rev, broadcasters are getting slammed by the auto industry, which has historically comprised 25% of TV ad rev. While retrans likely will be a substantial rev stream for most companies in 09, it's not enough to offset the difficult macro environment, in our opinion. We reduced company rev and EBITDA estimates by 350bps and 1,120 bps, respectively, on avg. RADIO: WHO WILL SURVIVE? We currently forecast '09 rev. to be -13% for radio, and even this number may be too optimistic. Radio has, in our view, hit bottom given the various penny stocks, significant debt levels, no M&A, nonexistent credit and significant rev and EBITDA declines. In 2009, radio groups will focus on avoiding potential delisting and bankruptcies rather than rev. generation. We reduced co. rev. and EBITDA ests. by 460bps and 1,300bps, respectively, on avg.
Broadcasting Marci Ryvicker, CFA, CPA, Senior Analyst
(212) 214-5010 / marci.ryvicker@wachovia.com
Please see page 9 for rating definitions, important disclosures and required analyst certifications.
WCM does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report and investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Broadcasting
Source: Wachovia Capital Markets, LLC Media Equity Research Estimates (John Janedis, Marci Ryvicker, Jaime Neuman), NAA, IAB, Universal McCann
Source for all charts: Wachovia Capital Markets, LLC estimates ________________________________________________________________________________________
Broadcasting
We anticipate the best performers in 2009 to be CBS and EVC. While CBS has significant exposure to advertising revenue (at approximately 70% of total revenue), it also has a diversified set of revenue streams such as its O&O stations, the CBS network, syndication, Showtime, interactive, outdoor, publishing and radio. Some of these revenue streams are more insulated from economic downturns than others; particularly affiliate fees, syndication and interactive. CBS also has an investment grade balance sheet and a lot of cash on hand ($553 million as of September 30th) which provides it with more flexibility than most of its peers. EVCs revenue declines should be less significant than its English-language peers given its belowaverage exposure to political. Political revenue comprised only 4% of total television revenue (per our estimates) during this past presidential election vs. the ~10% exposure of most English-language broadcast groups. We also point out that we have not included a 2009 retrans estimate for EVC for two primary reasons: i) Univision is negotiating with MSOs on EVCs behalf, and there has been no disclosure as to the economics of this relationship (i.e. what is Univisions cut of EVCs retrans revenue); and ii) unlike its English-language peers, Entravision has not provided any information with regard to the progress of its retransmission consent talks. Therefore, we would rather remain conservative by excluding this revenue stream. That being said, once Univision/EVC complete their retrans negotiations, this revenue stream could be quite significant for EVC. We estimate that 2009 retrans revenue could vary between $10 million to $40 million, which would equate to an additional $2-$5 per share of equity value.
We expect the best performers in 2009 to be EMMS and SGA, with high single digit revenue declines vs. the double digit declines we are anticipating for the rest of the groups. Our reasoning for this is as follows: EMMS has a February fiscal year-end, which includes January and February of 2010. We hope that at that point, we will be in the midst of an economic recovery; therefore EMMS should benefit from 2 months of moderating revenue declines. Unlike its peers, EMMS also has a rather large international radio division, which comprises 20% of consolidated radio revenue (per our estimates). We anticipate that this segment will continue to trend better than EMMS domestic segment just as it has done over the past several years.
SGA has outperformed the industry for the past several years due to its small-market focus, and we anticipate that this trend will continue throughout the economic downturn. ________________________________________________________________________________________
Broadcasting
CONSOLIDATED ESTIMATES
2009 Consolidated Revenue Estimates New $740 $275 $366 $385 $319 $284 $129 $272 $596 $654 $330 $13,496 $215 2009E Revenue Old Chg. $796 (7%) $295 (7%) $387 (5%) $407 (6%) $327 (2%) $299 (5%) $137 (6%) $274 $619 $681 $360 $13,892 $225 (1%) (4%) (4%) (8%) (3%) (4%) Consensus $1,138 $299 $393 $409 $334 $299 $137 $280 $633 $693 $368 $13,605 $230 New (13%) (11%) (11%) (12%) (7%) (8%) (8%) (17%) (18%) (13%) (17%) (4%) (11%) (11%) 2009E Revenue Growth Old Chg. (8%) (492) (5%) (519) (6%) (463) (7%) (423) (5%) (215) (5%) (350) (3%) (442) (16%) (15%) (9%) (9%) (2%) (7%) (8%) (46) (306) (355) (757) (167) (372) (278) Consensus (5%) (4%) (5%) (8%) (4%) (5%) (3%) (14%) (14%) (8%) (7%) (3%) (5%) (5%)
CDL CMLS CXR ETM EMMS (1) ROIAK SGA GTN HTV SBGI TVL CBS EVC
CDL CMLS CXR ETM EMMS (1) ROIAK SGA GTN HTV SBGI TVL CBS EVC LAMR
$1,128 (3%) $1,138 $1,092 LAMR 2009 Consolidated EBITDA Estimates 2009E EBITDA (excl. FAS123R) New Old Chg. Consensus $212 (26%) $448 CDL $157 $80 (22%) $81 CMLS $62 $106 (13%) $117 CXR $93 $119 (17%) $122 ETM $98 $48 2% $53 EMMS (1) $49 $70 (21%) $79 ROIAK $56 $31 (22%) $30 SGA $24
GTN HTV SBGI TVL CBS EVC LAMR $70 $127 $162 $65 $2,265 $63 $399 $71 $147 $188 $93 $2,331 $73 $429 (2%) (13%) (14%) (31%) (3%) (14%) (7%) $81 $149 $184 $100 $2,291 $73 $448
CDL CMLS CXR ETM EMMS (1) ROIAK SGA GTN HTV SBGI TVL CBS EVC LAMR
New (36%) (29%) (28%) (30%) (25%) (25%) (27%) (41%) (41%) (33%) (46%) (17%) (24%) (22%)
2009E EBITDA Growth Old Chg. (19%) (1,716) (13%) (1,572) (19%) (884) (18%) (1,156) (27%) 147 (10%) (1,497) (11%) (1,568) (40%) (31%) (23%) (22%) (17%) (14%) (16%) (108) (912) (1,056) (2,405) 32 (1,089) (568)
Consensus (11%) (7%) (12%) (13%) (11%) (13%) (12%) (28%) (32%) (21%) (18%) (13%) (9%) (11%)
2009 EPS And FCF/Share Estimates New $0.10 $0.58 $0.67 $1.43 $0.16 ($0.11) $0.49 ($0.15) $0.30 $0.71 ($0.18) $1.81 $0.22 2009E FCF/Share Old Chg. $0.31 (67%) $0.95 (39%) $0.80 (16%) $1.99 (28%) $0.13 23% $0.05 (338%) $0.86 (43%) ($0.04) $0.51 $1.00 $0.38 $2.07 $0.33 310% (41%) (30%) (148%) (12%) (34%) Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A New ($0.02) $0.17 $0.45 $0.55 ($0.32) ($0.34) $0.21 ($0.57) ($0.00) $0.01 ($0.22) $1.01 $0.03 ($0.51) 2009E EPS Old Chg. $0.11 (119%) $0.35 (52%) $0.55 (18%) $0.88 (38%) ($0.34) (5%) ($0.19) 78% $0.43 (50%) ($0.54) $0.15 $0.18 $0.15 $1.19 $0.10 ($0.33) 5% (101%) (92%) (242%) (15%) (67%) 57% Consensus ($0.25) $0.28 $0.64 $0.82 ($0.26) ($0.08) $0.43 ($0.47) $0.25 $0.24 $0.18 $1.13 $0.11 ($0.25)
CDL CMLS CXR ETM EMMS (1) ROIAK SGA GTN HTV SBGI TVL CBS EVC
CDL CMLS CXR ETM EMMS (1) ROIAK SGA GTN HTV SBGI TVL CBS EVC
$2.63 (12%) N/A LAMR $2.31 LAMR Note 1 for all charts: EMMS has a February year end. Thus, 2009E represents EMMS' FY '10 Source for all charts: Wachovia Capital Markets, LLC estimates, Thomson One
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1) We have rolled our discounted cash flow models over to 2009, and 2) We are now using market value of debt rather than book value of debt in the calculation of overall firm value. We have also included our 2009E leverage forecasts vs. each companys debt covenants. While some of our assumptions may indicate a covenant breach, please remember that there are many levers a company can pull before a potential debt call or bankruptcy occurs (i.e. significant expense cuts, asset sales, refinancing).
Current Price $0.21 $2.79 $6.40 $0.40 $1.36 $0.32 $1.69 $0.43 $6.26 $3.32 $1.46 $8.70 $1.51 Valuation Range New Old $0-1 $1-2 $2-3 $1-3 $5-7 $6-8 $0-1 $2-4 $1-2 $1-2 $0-1 $1-2 $3-4 $3-5 $0-1 $5-7 $4-5 $1-2 $8-10 $2-3 $1-2 $15-17 $4-5 $2-4 $10-12 $4-6 Rationale Leverage Ratio Implied '09E EBITDA Mult. Terminal FCF Growth WCM Est. Covenant 7.8x (1%) 12.8x 7.75x Note (1) 9.5x (1%) 10.3x 7.0x 5.7x (1%) 3.8x 5.0x 6.5x (1%) 7.8x 6.5x Note (5) 6.4x (1%) 7.3x 6.0x 5.8x (1%) 12.2x 7.3x 6.3x (1%) 5.2x 4.5x Note (2) 11.0x 7.6x 7.5x 7.1x 7.1x 7.1x 8.6x 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 8.8x 5.7x 4.3x 11.3x 3.0x 6.7x 5.7x 7.3x 5.0x 6.5x 7.0x 3.0x 6.8x 6.0x Note (3) Note (4)
CDL CMLS CXR EMMS ETM ROIAK SGA GTN HTV SBGI TVL CBS EVC
$14-16 $14-16 LAMR $14.75 Source: Wachovia Capital Markets, LLC estimates
Note (1): CDL's covenant steps down to 7.25x on October 1, 2009 Note (2): SGA's covenant steps down to 4.0x on June 30,2009 Note (3): EVC's covenant steps down to 6.5x on October 1, 2009 Note (4): GTN's debt covenant calculation is based on 8 trailing quarters instead of 4 Note (5): EMMS' debt covenant steps down to 6.0x on May 31, 2009. Source: Wachovia Capital Markets, LLC estimates, FactSet, Bloomberg and company data
Risks to Valuation Ranges: Risks to achieving our valuation ranges are as follows: Radio One: potential integration difficulties with ROIAK's new ventures and longer-than-anticipated economic recession. Emmis: audience share and revenue declines that are worse than expected and an increase in debt levels. Cox Radio: a lack of industry pricing power and declining ratings. Lamar: a lack of operating leverage, a slowdown in digital billboard deployment, and a greater than expected decline in occupancy and/or ad rates. Entercom: integration difficulties and format changes not contributing to growth as quickly as anticipated. Entravision: a greater than anticipated lag between ratings improvements and associated revenue growth and persistent declines due to increased competition. Cumulus: above-average debt levels and lack of pricing power. Citadel: increased market competition, potential integration difficulties and a lack of industry pricing power. Saga: a longerthan-anticipated lag between ratings improvement and revenue growth and potential integration difficulties. Gray Television: increased competition from other media, above-average debt levels and persistent viewership declines at the NBC network. Hearst-Argyle Television, Inc: increased competition from other media, continued declines in the auto advertising category, a slower-than-expected comeback from NBC and lower-than-expected revenue and cash flow contributions from HTV's new business initiatives (i.e., local websites, IBS, and digital programs). Lin TV Corporation: increased competition from other media, continued declines in the auto advertising category, increasing debt leverage and lower-than-expected revenue and cash flow contributions from TVL's new business initiatives. Sinclair Broadcast Group, Inc.: increased competition from other media, continued declines in the auto advertising category and lower-thanexpected revenue and cash flow contributions from SBGI's new business initiatives (i.e., digital channels, news sharing, and direct mail). CBS: a fall-off in CBS' ratings, regulatory barriers to CBS' conversion to digital outdoor products and a weak advertising and/or economic environment.
Broadcasting
Comparable Valuations
Comparative EV-to-EBITDA 2009E Multiples
16.0x 14.0x EV/EBITDA 2009E 12.0x 10.0x 8.0x 6.0x 4.0x 2.0x 0.0x 5.4x 5.8x 6.4x 7.5x 7.6x 7.8x 7.8x 7.8x 8.2x 8.2x 8.5x 8.9x 9.0x 9.2x 10.9x 10.2x 10.6x
CX R
TV L
IA K
M S
LS
H TV
CD L
LA M R
ET
A ve r
RO
io
Note: Radio includes CXR, ETM , ROIAK, CDL, CM LS, SGA. Television includes CBS, TVL, HTV, GTN, SBGI. Total includes all of the above. Sources: Company data and Wachovia Capital M arkets, LLC estimates
Te
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To ta l
Ra d
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EM
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CM
29%
10% 0%
5%
EV C
SB GI
CX R
HT V
CB S
lA ve ra ge
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LA M
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SG
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Note: Radio includes CXR, ETM , ROIAK, CDL, CM LS, SGA. Television includes CBS, TVL, HTV, GTN, SBGI. Total includes all of the above. Sources: Company data and Wachovia Capital M arkets, LLC estimates
Te
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Ra di
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EM
M S
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40%
SB G
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SG
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Required Disclosures
To view price charts for all companies rated in this document, please go to www.wachoviaresearch.com or write to 7 Saint Paul Street, 1st Floor, MD5202, Baltimore, MD 21202 ATTN: Research Publications
Additional Information Available Upon Request
I certify that: 1) All views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers discussed; and 2) No part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by me in this research report. Wachovia Capital Markets, LLC maintains a market in the common stock of Cumulus Media Inc., Emmis Communications Corporation, Lamar Advertising Company, Radio One, Inc., Sinclair Broadcast Group, Inc. Wachovia Capital Markets, LLC or its affiliates intends to seek or expects to receive compensation for investment banking services in the next three months from CBS Corporation, Citadel Broadcasting Corp., Cox Radio, Inc., Cumulus Media Inc., Emmis Communications Corporation, Entravision Communications Corp., Gray Television, Inc., LIN TV Corporation, Radio One, Inc., Saga Communications, Inc., Sinclair Broadcast Group, Inc. Wachovia Capital Markets, LLC or its affiliates received compensation for investment banking services from Cox Radio, Inc., Gray Television, Inc., Lamar Advertising Company in the past 12 months. Cox Radio, Inc., Gray Television, Inc., Lamar Advertising Company currently is, or during the 12-month period preceding the date of distribution of the research report was, a client of Wachovia Capital Markets, LLC. Wachovia Capital Markets, LLC provided investment banking services to Cox Radio, Inc., Gray Television, Inc., Lamar Advertising Company. Radio One, Inc., Sinclair Broadcast Group, Inc. currently is, or during the 12-month period preceding the date of distribution of the research report was, a client of Wachovia Capital Markets, LLC. Wachovia Capital Markets, LLC provided noninvestment banking securities-related services to Radio One, Inc., Sinclair Broadcast Group, Inc. Wachovia Capital Markets, LLC received compensation for products or services other than investment banking services from Radio One, Inc., Sinclair Broadcast Group, Inc. in the past 12 months. Wachovia Capital Markets, LLC does not compensate its research analysts based on specific investment banking transactions. WCMs research analysts receive compensation that is based upon and impacted by the overall profitability and revenue of the firm, which includes, but is not limited to investment banking revenue. STOCK RATING 1 = Outperform: The stock appears attractively valued, and we believe the stock's total return will exceed that of the market over the next 12 months. BUY 2 = Market Perform: The stock appears appropriately valued, and we believe the stock's total return will be in line with the market over the next 12 months. HOLD 3 = Underperform: The stock appears overvalued, and we believe the stock's total return will be below the market over the next 12 months. SELL SECTOR RATING O = Overweight: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12 months. M = Market Weight: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12 months. U = Underweight: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12 months. VOLATILITY RATING V = A stock is defined as volatile if the stock price has fluctuated by +/-20% or greater in at least 8 of the past 24 months or if the analyst expects significant volatility. All IPO stocks are automatically rated volatile within the first 24 months of trading.
Broadcasting
As of: January 6, 2009 41% of companies covered by Wachovia Capital Markets, LLC Equity Research are rated Outperform. 55% of companies covered by Wachovia Capital Markets, LLC Equity Research are rated Market Perform. 4% of companies covered by Wachovia Capital Markets, LLC Equity Research are rated Underperform. Wachovia Capital Markets, LLC has provided investment banking services for 37% of its Equity Research Outperform-rated companies. Wachovia Capital Markets, LLC has provided investment banking services for 26% of its Equity Research Market Perform-rated companies. Wachovia Capital Markets, LLC has provided investment banking services for 32% of its Equity Research Underperform-rated companies.
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Additional Disclosures
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SECURITIES: NOT FDIC-INSURED/NOT BANK-GUARANTEED/MAY LOSE VALUE
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