PROPOSAL FOR MARLBORO ADVERTISING AND BRAND TRACKING RESEARCH RESEARCH PROPOSAL

Prepared for Rothmans (UK) Limited Oxford Road Aylesbury Bucks HP21 8SZ

RSGB contacts : Duncan Swan Rob Seebold

0181 967 4247 0 181 967 4243

RS 5118 June 1997

.\II rights reserved. No copies or part copies of this document shall he made
without

Copyright. 1994 Taylor Nelson :\(:13 plc.

the express permission of the Company Secretary. .

CONTENTS 1 2 2.1 2.2 2 .3 2.4 INTRODUCTION DISCUSSION In-Street Interviewing CAPI Interviewing Snapshot vs . Rolling Data Conversion Model as a Tool for Brand and Advertising Tracking SURVEY METHOD 3 .1 3 .2 3 .3 3 .4 4 5 Sample Size Sampling Approach Questionnaire Design Output/Reporting PROJECT MANAGEMENT COSTS & TIMINGS

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3 4 5 10 10 10 11 12 13 14

APPENDIX Taylor Nelson AGB Standard Terms and Conditions

INTRODUCTION

Rothmans (UK) Limited has overall responsibility for the Marlboro brand in the UK. The Marlboro brand is a consistently heavy advertiser within the cigarette sector and the present "Welcome to Marlboro Country" advertising campaign has been running since July 1995 . The campaign is designed to communicate and build on core values of the Marlboro brand - with attention paid to the slightly different core values of the two principle variants (Reds and Lights) . The intention for 1997 is to continue the Marlboro Country campaign with around eight new executions this year . In conjunction with this there may be tactical support for the Marlboro Medium brand (launched in July 1996) and sponsorship of the Ferrari Formula 1 team . There is a need to evaluate the effectiveness of the campaign in achieving the communication objectives set out in the creative brief. Since 1995 awareness of Marlboro advertising has been collected on a study that is primarily financed by Rothmans Royals . The brief has identified that this approach has become increasingly unacceptable for a number of reasons : " The Marlboro target group (ABC l smokers. aged 18- 3 5) formed a relatively small part of the sample making statistically significant analysis difficult . Due to space constraints the inclusion of Marlboro executions has been inconsistent, leading to uncertainty as to true levels of executional awareness. " Marlboro advertising relies heavily on the style press . where advertising 'wear-In' is traditionally longer than for other media. No account has been taken of this in the current research .

"

The young and mobile nature of the Marlboro target group makes the current approach of in-home interviewing less appropriate.

RSGB has been invited to submit proposals to conduct a continuous advertising and image tracking survey, specifically for the Marlboro brand. Key objectives of the research are: i) ii) To measure brand awareness and usage, particularly of the three Marlboro variants (Reds, Lights and Medium) . To track awareness and impact of Marlboro advertising as an evaluative measure of campaign activity. To track the image of Marlboro and key competitors and develop a measure of brand involvement . To evaluate smokers' relationships with brands. To separately identify the effect of Marlboro's sponsorship of the Ferrari Formula 1 team on the overall effectiveness of Marlboro advertising.

iii)

iv) v)

These proposals leave been prepared on the basis of a written brief and a subsequent discussion with Rothmans (UK) Limited.

DISCUSSION

In preparing these proposals, we have been conscious of the need to balance different priorities and requirements in the context of limited budget and a tightly defined and relatively elusive target group . We recognise that we may wish to refine elements of the methodology in the light of further discussions with Rothmans and BST. For example, we have not for the moment, included measurement of media usage, since this cannot be accommodated in the questionnaire length which is envisaged. However, we are confident that the core approach will offer an extremely effective means of addressing the core research objectives . Key elements of this core approach are : " " In-street interviews to maximise efficiency of recruitinent . PEN CAPI technology to provide most effective use of limited questionnaire length and reduce the number of show materials. A continuous interviewing and sampling design which will allow "rolling" data analysis on a flexible basis . Use of RSGB's Conversion Model to provide an understanding of consumer involvement and the effect of advertising on consumers' relationships with brands (notably Marlboro brands). IN-STREET INTERVIEWING

"

"

2.1

Given the nature of the target sample (young, up-market, more mobile, socially active) we agree with the brief that in-home interviewing would not be the most cost-effective approach and we are therefore in agreement that in-street interviewing is likely to be the most appropriate data collection vehicle . The target group is likely to be very much more active and mobile than the population as a whole, and therefore it would prove very difficult to attempt to

interview this group in-home: to achieve a representative sample would be very costly and would necessitate an approach involving multiple call-backs . In-street interviewing will allow us to select more up-market towns and cities where we are most likely to find ABC 1's. Given the quite tight age definition, in-street interviewing is also more efficient in the respect that only those in the correct age range will be approached (with broad quotas to ensure a representative spread). . 2 .2 CAPI INTERVIEWING

In-street interviewing is not feasible using most lap-top CAPI technology . The system used by RSGB, however, is very practical incorporating a light weight, hand held unit, using light pen technology . PEN CAPI will remove the problem experienced on many in-street surveys of interviewers struggling with large amounts of paper and stimulus material . We envisage that on this study all executional and other stimulus material will be collated into one booklet which the respondent will hold and refer to throughout the interview. Show cards can be shown on the CAPI screen itself. One of the key limitations of street interviewing is that questionnaire length must be kept to a minimum. Using the latest PEN CAPI technology will ensure that the maximum number of questions can be asked within this shorter interview length as CAPI removes the need for interviewers to spend time over complex questionnaire routing . A CAPI approach will also allow for the inclusion of questions which because of their more complex routing may have to be left out of an equivalent paper questionnaire. The innovative nature of the CAPI technology captures respondents attention and generally a good rapport builds up between interviewer and respondent . This may be a particular advantage among young ABC I's . CAPI also reduces interviewer error and therefore produces reliable . high quality data.

2 .3

SNAPSHOT VS . ROLLING DATA

brief envisaged that Whilst the study continuous, the is bi-monthly snapshot measures would be the most cost effective approach. While, this is the case, we believe that building in a facility for rolling analysis of the data will be extremely beneficial . The facility is particularly useful, since it allows analysis of any time period over the 48 weeks of tracking each year. This will enable us to monitor- the effect of unplanned publicity, competitive advertising or events such as sponsorship (notably Formula 1), without needing to plan fieldwork dates around particular events. Whilst in-street interviewing does not lend itself to as strict controls on sample structure as in-home interviewing, a good degree of stability in the sample can be achieved, with each sample point being re-worked on an eight week cycle (see method section) . A rolling approach should ensure "smoothing" of any random fluctuations in the data, while providing the opportunity to build reliable trend data. 2 .4 CONVERSION MODEL AS A TOOL FOR BRAND AND ADVERTISING TRACKING

A key objective of the research is the ability to track the impact of Marlboro advertising in a way that will give meaningful, evaluative and actionable data. We therefore recommend that, as well as collecting standard brand and advertising tracking information, the study include RSGB's Conversion Model . This will allow in-depth tracking of advertising effectiveness and brand image among the most important sub-groups of the target sample, such as vulnerable users of the Marlboro brands and non-users amongst whom there is greatest potential .

The model works by examining individual consumers across four dimensions : Need satisfaction Involvement in category Attraction of alternatives Intensity of ambivalence The analysis is driven by a small battery of questions which examine commitment to different brands (in this case cigarettes) among users and the availability to each brand of non-users . Users of a brand are divided into four segments :

Strength of Commitment

Entrenched

Average

Shallow

Convertible

Entrenched. Average : Shallow: Convertible :

Those customers who are unlikely to change brands in the foreseeable future Unlikely to change in the short term Lower than average commitment Vulnerable: on the threshold of making a change

Clearly, the last category is very important; representing the most vulnerable users . The other analysis dimension within the Conversion Model is to segment nonusers of a brand, also into four segments:

Balance of Disposition

Strongly Available

Ambivalent

Weakly Unavailable

Strongly Unavailable

Strongly Available: Ambivalent: Weakly unavailable: Strongly unavailable:

Prime prospects to become users Non-users who find the brand equally as attractive as the current brand(s) Unlikely to become users Very unlikely to consider the brand

The key usage of the data is to: " examine the size of each segment for each brand, which provides a measure of brand equity or brand strength ; profile loyal customers vs. vulnerable customers/available non-users vs . unavailable non-users in terms of demographic profile psychographics behavioural/brand repertoires attitudes/market maps awareness of advertising & perceived communication A further valuable application of The Conversion Model is in tracking brand health over time . By continuously tracking Secure vs . Vulnerable users and Open vs. Unavailable non-users, marketers can evaluate the effectiveness of advertising and other marketing activity in accomplishing the key goals of increasing commitment among users maximising availability among potential users The Conversion Model analysis is also particularly useful in evaluating awareness and other advertising effects in a more sensitive way than traditional approaches as has been found in tracking to date, where Marlboro advertising has tended to be particularly effective in reaching "prime prospects" : i .e. non users who are available to the brand:

"

Advertising Awareness by Availability to Brand Non Available 60 48 47 28 Users Unavailable 51 41 28 9

Benson & Hedges Silk Cut Marlboro Red Marlboro Lights

Total Sample 54 43 29 10

While targeting the sample will go some way to identifying these kind of efficiencies, it would clearly be extremely useful to continue to monitor both awareness of advertising and other factors among these key target groups .

3 3.1

SURVEY METHOD SAMPLE SIZE

We have based our costs on the sample size suggested in the research brief, 400 interviews per wave (2 month period/8 week period), which is to be recommended . However, we have also provided costs for conducting the research with a reduced sample size of 300 per wave. i) 400 interviews per wave 300 interviews per wave 2400 interviews per annum. 1800 interviews per annum.

In the discussion section, we have discussed two alternative approaches to analysing the data : a snapshot approach and an 8 week rolling data approach . The actual design of the study will be the same no matter which approach is finally adopted . i) For a 400 sample (per 8 week period) we would conduct fieldwork across 41 sample points with around 50 interviews per week . For a 300 sample (per 8 week period) fieldwork would be conducted across 31 sample points with around 38 interviews per week. SAMPLING APPROACH

ii)

3 .2

Towns and cities in England, Scotland and Wales would be selected to provide the most effective chances of finding respondents in social grades ABC 1 (by excluding areas with particularly low incidence levels). In addition a proportion of sample points would be in towns/cities with a sizeable student population to ensure that those in full time higher- education form part of the sample . Students form an important part of the Marlboro target market, particularly the Lights variant, which is claimed as the main brand by 15% of those in full time higher- education (1996 data) .

10

We recommend that a slightly higher proportion than normal (c . I8% in this case) of interviews be conducted in London, as the Marlboro brand has a somewhat southern bias . Quotas would be placed on sex, age and whether respondent is a full time student. Interviewing will be weekly and will all be conducted on Saturdays . sampling point will be re-worked after each 8 week period . 3.3 QUESTIONNAIRE DESIGN Each

We have assumed a maximum questionnaire length of 12 minutes with coverage as follows : Brand usage (most often, occasional, others considered) Spontaneous and prompted brand awareness Spontaneous and prompted advertising awareness Brand image across c.12 dimensions Prompted awareness of specific executions Administration of the battery of Conversion Model questions will take around 2 minutes and covet- the following areas : " " " " Loyalty Disposition Involvement Ambivalence How much does a brand satisfy needs and expectations Attraction of alternatives How much the brand choice matters Propensity to change brand

We have assumed that Rothmans will provide copies of all stimulus material .

3 .4

OUTPUT/REPORTING

Computer tables of results will be provided bi-monthly after- each fieldwork period. During the first fieldwork period interim topline results will be provided . This will allow fine tuning to ensure that output is in the most useful form. A full charted presentation will be provided on an annual basis .

PROJECT MANAGEMENT

The main project team would be Duncan Swan and Rob Seebold. Trevor Richards the Managing Director of RSGB will also be closely involved with the project . He has over 15 years of research experience, particularly in the area of brands and services . He has designed and managed many advertising evaluation studies and over the years has taken a major role in developing research techniques . He is also responsible for the implementation of the Conversion Model at RSGB. Duncan Swan is an Associate Director of the Consumer Division at RSGB. Over his years in market research he has managed a wide range of projects using a variety of different research techniques . Duncan has been responsible for the brand tracking study conducted for Rothmans for the past 3 years .

COSTS & TIMINGS

Based on the above proposals, our fees for carrying out tilis research will be: 400 interviews per wave (2400 annually) 300 interviews per wave (1800 annually) 65,000 55,000

Within the budget specified in the brief, 50,000, we can carry out tracking with the smaller sample size specified above, but excluding analysis on a rolling data basis. The above costs assume 48 week coverage and are based on this full term being commissioned . All costs exclude VAT and are subject to Taylor Nelson AGB standard terms and conditions of contract, a copy of which you will find in the appendix. The time scale specified in the brief, is fieldwork commencing in mid July. A timetable for carrying out the research described in this proposal, in elapsed weeks, would be : Project commissioned Fieldwork start Interim toplines (after 4 weeks of fieldwork) Tables available Week I Week 3 Week 8

Week 12 (and thereafter 2 weeks after the end of each 8 week fieldwork period)

Nelson AGB Standard Terms and Conditions

APPENDIX

Taylor

F9/398
Subsidare and plc Standard Terms ana Conditions of Contract in the nature hereuncer .
AGB Nelson

Taylor Service provided

Definitions

of

the

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Terminatona Lion 5/ If at any time the Comoany shall in its entire discretion find it impracticable to continue the Service or any part thereof, the Company snail be entitled to terminate this agreement by giving not less than three months' prior written notice to the Client at any time to take effect from the date of despatch by the Company/ If such a notice is given the Company will complete any Report in preparation and undelivered to the Client and will remain entitled to payment for completion of that work/ In the case of a customised Report or special analysis which the Company is unable to complete, the Company wilt return that proportion of any fee received related to the work paid for but not completed and shall not be under any further liability to the Client, while remaining entitled to payment for the amount of work completed/ 6/ The contract may also De terminated on three months' written notice in circumstances where it can be proven beyond reasonable coubt that the Company has failed in any material resoect to meet agreed Contract Standards/ In such circumstances the Client snail, prior to exercising this right of termination, serve upon the Company a written notice which shall set cut how and in what manner the Client considers that the Company has failed to meet the agreed Contract standards/ Upon receipt of such notice the Company will acknowledge receipt in writing/ The Company shall have a period of twelve weeks from the date of the acknowledgement of receipt of the notice to rectify the failure alleged/ If at the exoiry of this twelve week period the atlegea failure has not been rectified to . . he reasonacle satisfaction of :ne Client the Contract may to terminated. :f the Company has rectified the failure to the reasonacte satisfaction of the Client, the Contract will continue in full force and effect . Surveys Proposals 7 . Proposals presented before a contract for a Survey is agreed are submitted for the Client's consideration only, and can neither ce copied nor shown to any third party exceot that an agent commissioning a Survey may snow the crooosat to the agent's client for ' .^e project No . use may ce made of proposals at any time the contract 4 or :n e Survey - s not 'made with the Company . 3. :f more -nan three proposals are being obtained ' .-e Client will nform : .he to taking receipt of the Company prior . . the Company has reason proposals believe that proposals recommendations or detailed specifications ore being obtained

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July 1996

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July 1996

Terms and conditions

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F9 .398

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22 .

23 . The Client

Client's Obligations

24 .

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