Non-agricultural commodities

Aluminium fundamentals (000 tonnes)

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

Global

Economic parameters impacting Aluminium prices

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

Real GDP (% change)

Production

38,867

39,437

38,150

33,942

31,968

Ex China

25,164

26,387

25529

24593

24162

Production capacity

49,900

44,300

42,700

37,400

36,100

Consumption

37655

38278

37,761

34,336

31,842

Ex China

24582

25,624

25,710

25,546

24,680

World balance

1212

1,159

389

-394

126

Total stocks

5628

4,416

3,257

2,868

3,262

China aluminium alumina imports

351

436

331

547

578

China aluminium alumina exports

22

14

India

US

-2.5

1.1

2.9

3.1

Japan

-5.4
-4

-0.3

1.9

2.8

2.4

2.3

2.6

1.4

China

8.7

11.5

11.1

10.4

India

5.5

7.3

8.9

9.7

OECD

-3.4

2.6

3.2

2.7

Eurozone

Consumer price inflation (% change)

US

2.5

2.7

3.4

Japan

-1.7

0.5

1.4

0.3

0.3

Eurozone

0.5

2.2

2.2

China

0.8

5.9

1.4

Primary aluminium production

1,349

1,237

1,153

1,003

883

India

7.5

6.7

5.3

Primary aluminium consumption

OECD

0.1

2.2

2.1

1,299

1,240

1,140

1,033

829

Indian imports

184

170

112

126

76

Indian exports

233.7

167

124

96

131

Aluminium extrusions production

128.3

142.6

132

124

97

35

46

44

41

40

Aluminium rolled products production

Aluminium foil production

278

307

281

268

242

Aluminium wire rods production

281

247

219

228

183

85

92

82

92

79

Aluminium collapsible tubes production (million nos)

Inventory levels - year-end

LME
SHFE
Average daily volatility (MCX spot prices)

4,629

2,329

930

699.3

644.9

298

207

89.1

18.5

46.4

1.90%

1.80%

1.20%

1.60%

1.10%

Source: USGS, DGCIS, GFMS base metal report, LME, SHFE, MCX

Industrial output (YoY % change )

China

-2

-8.9

1.7

1.5

2.9

Japan

5.3

-20.7

1.5

5.4

3.4

Eurozone

-6.8

-12.2

1.4

5.3

2.5

China

11

5.7

17.4

14.7

16.5

India

11.7

-0.2

13.4

5.7

Interest rates (%)

US (Fed funds target)

0.00 - 0.25

0.25

4.25

5.25

4.25

0.13

0.249

0.581

0.618

0.066

Japan (12 month T-Bills)

Eurozone (refinance rate)

2.5

3.5

2.25

China (lending rate)

5.31

5.31

7.47

6.12

5.58

India (repo rate)

4.75

6.5

7.75

7.25

6.25

Money supply ( YoY % change)

US

3.7

9.6

5.6

5.4

4.1

Japan

2.2

0.7

0.7

-0.6

0.3

Eurozone

-0.3

7.5

11.6

9.9

7.4

China

27.58

17.82

16.72

16.9

17.6

India

17.2

19.6

22.84

19.33

17.79

Equity index (points) Year End

US (Dow Jones)

10428

8,776

13,265

12,463

10,718

India (Sensex)

17464

9,647

20,287

13,787

9,398

OECD indicators
OECD Total Monetary Aggr. & Comp. Broad Money Index

135.8

127.3

116.9

N/A

113.83

114.4

127.8

OECD Total Purchasing Power Index Manufacturing

OECD Total CPI OECD Groups Total Energy IPB

107.6

100

106.9

103.7

100

113.7

109.3

100

Source: OECD, IMF, CPM Gold yearbook, World Bank, BSE, Dow Jones

180 | Commodity Insights Yearbook 2010

A PwC & MCX Joint Endeavour | 181

Non-agricultural commodities

Aluminium prices

Month

Mar-10
Feb-10
Jan-10
Dec-09
Nov-09
Oct-09
Sep-09
Aug-09
Jul-09
Jun-09
May-09
Apr-09
Mar-09
Feb-09
Jan-09
Dec-08
Nov-08
Oct-08
Sep-08
Aug-08
Jul-08
Jun-08
May-08
Apr-08
Mar-08
Feb-08
Jan-08
Dec-07
Nov-07
Oct-07
Sep-07
Aug-07
Jul-07
Jun-07
May-07
Apr-07
Mar-07
Feb-07
Jan-07
Dec-06
Nov-06
Oct-06
Sep-06
Aug-06
Jul-06
Jun-06
May-06
Apr-06
Mar-06
Feb-06
Jan-06
Dec-05
Nov-05
Oct-05
Sep-05
Aug-05
Jul-05
Jun-05
May-05
Apr-05

Open
97.60
95.50
104.25
94.85
89.75
89.60
91.00
91.45
77.95
68.15
75.25
71.00
67.70
65.10
74.40
87.45
101.00
114.80
119.40
125.30
132.00
122.85
115.00
117.00
124.80
105.50
94.25
98.90
99.30
99.30
103.60
110.85
111.10
113.20
118.05
121.30
125.20
123.75
125.75
122.20
129.80
118.35
116.00
118.70
121.80
126.50
133.20
113.10
114.25
110.00
110.00
97.00
91.00
86.00
-
-
-
-
-
-

MCX futures price

(Rs/kg)
High
Low
103.70
98.95
108.50
106.30
95.40
93.40
93.90
99.45
90.40
80.75
77.60
78.90
73.95
70.95
78.75
88.50
102.45
114.80
120.45
125.70
144.20
136.90
130.40
123.40
130.25
125.50
104.60
98.90
103.25
100.20
103.60
110.85
113.90
114.10
119.40
127.50
126.45
130.50
131.65
127.80
129.80
128.70
121.85
119.50
125.00
126.80
151.45
144.00
118.45
122.45
110.00
115.40
94.40
93.00
-
-
-
-
-
-

97.10
91.60
94.10
94.50
88.30
83.95
82.55
88.40
75.45
67.55
64.65
68.10
66.05
62.20
63.15
67.40
84.75
91.50
110.50
115.50
122.70
121.10
114.55
114.05
112.25
102.30
93.25
92.55
96.40
94.15
93.65
99.85
105.60
107.65
108.30
112.30
117.30
116.50
114.60
122.20
115.90
113.00
109.00
110.00
111.30
107.00
116.80
111.50
102.15
99.10
110.00
95.00
84.25
86.00
-
-
-
-
-
-

Close
103.45
94.75
95.55
103.05
93.25
89.15
89.10
91.85
89.75
77.20
65.40
70.40
69.50
65.50
64.30
70.80
84.85
97.05
112.35
117.45
124.35
132.00
122.75
117.05
117.30
123.20
104.05
92.60
97.80
97.85
96.85
102.30
109.15
109.45
111.25
116.75
121.60
127.95
124.75
126.05
120.25
125.05
116.95
112.65
116.25
117.60
125.15
123.85
112.05
105.40
110.00
100.90
91.85
91.00
-
-
-
-
-
-

MCX spot price (Rs/kg)

Mumbai
Monthly average
100.53
94.81
102.52
101.71
90.56
87.85
89.23
93.57
80.69
75.54
70.90
71.44
68.61
65.96
69.28
72.42
91.03
102.66
115.01
118.74
131.79
126.80
122.06
118.28
121.40
110.16
96.00
94.05
98.92
96.47
96.71
102.66
110.31
109.24
114.09
118.89
121.52
124.99
124.38
125.56
121.16
120.89
114.27
114.55
116.65
114.16
129.33
117.71
108.01
108.80
105.19
102.63
93.70
87.93
-
-
-
-
-
-

Open
2150.00
2086.00
2248.00
2057.00
1908.00
1885.00
1878.00
1889.00
1630.00
1440.00
1499.00
1395.00
1335.00
1349.00
1525.00
1770.00
2076.00
2442.00
2723.00
2971.00
3119.00
2935.00
2930.00
2990.00
3095.00
2708.00
2410.00
2512.00
2545.00
2512.00
2550.00
2744.00
2725.00
2790.00
2853.00
2789.50
2838.00
2730.00
2802.00
2732.00
2788.00
2581.00
2495.00
2553.00
2625.00
2670.00
2768.00
2456.00
2397.00
2515.00
2275.00
2135.00
1971.00
1852.00
1859.00
1855.00
1714.00
1740.00
1809.00
1975.00

LME 3-month futures price

(USD/tonne)

High
Low
Close
2343.00
2179.00
2394.00
2305.00
2095.00
2030.00
1978.00
2115.00
1914.75
1701.00
1605.00
1555.00
1492.00
1479.00
1648.00
1787.00
2130.00
2450.00
2725.00
2975.00
3380.15
3169.00
3071.00
3133.00
3255.00
3160.25
2717.00
2512.00
2661.00
2573.00
2550.00
2760.00
2870.00
2829.00
2927.00
2932.00
2856.75
2905.00
2847.00
2875.00
2848.00
2835.00
2687.00
2595.25
2710.00
2687.00
3310.00
2845.00
2564.00
2678.15
2526.00
2289.50
2148.00
2005.00
1900.00
1951.00
1874.50
1804.00
1813.00
1989.00

2112.00
1967.50
2069.00
2051.00
1882.00
1776.00
1778.00
1840.00
1545.00
1440.00
1383.00
1350.00
1292.25
1279.00
1316.50
1430.50
1744.00
1925.00
2404.85
2714.00
2928.25
2859.00
2828.00
2875.00
2805.00
2591.00
2377.00
2393.00
2472.00
2376.00
2375.00
2450.00
2712.00
2657.75
2745.00
2734.75
2664.00
2614.00
2550.00
2727.00
2566.00
2440.75
2405.00
2440.00
2449.85
2413.00
2644.00
2446.00
2293.00
2258.00
2227.00
2131.00
1950.00
1843.75
1777.00
1839.50
1681.00
1700.00
1702.00
1797.00

2323.00
2134.00
2079.00
2230.00
2058.00
1908.00
1890.00
1899.50
1890.00
1630.00
1440.00
1494.00
1392.00
1342.00
1349.00
1540.00
1772.00
2040.00
2425.00
2714.00
2979.00
3114.00
2931.00
2907.00
2990.00
3106.00
2710.00
2409.00
2500.00
2545.00
2520.00
2544.00
2751.00
2725.00
2790.00
2860.00
2780.00
2815.00
2730.00
2803.00
2738.00
2790.00
2584.00
2505.00
2570.00
2630.00
2650.00
2755.00
2471.00
2420.00
2516.00
2277.00
2139.00
1984.00
1851.00
1853.00
1858.00
1719.50
1740.00
1822.00

LME cash
RBI Rate
(USD/tonne)
USD/INR
Monthly average
2210.53
2053.27
2230.11
2181.26
1956.55
1875.66
1835.60
1927.64
1670.56
1579.63
1466.67
1431.81
1338.08
1338.06
1420.36
1504.42
1857.13
2122.03
2524.15
2762.56
3067.46
2967.87
2908.28
2968.03
3012.05
2784.89
2456.13
2382.83
2507.15
2444.53
2394.96
2512.60
2738.09
2681.31
2804.60
2817.05
2757.08
2839.05
2799.06
2823.67
2702.14
2657.15
2484.38
2461.55
2511.83
2490.95
2852.07
2623.86
2432.48
2453.38
2383.30
2250.90
2056.97
1934.14
1837.69
1871.27
1783.26
1731.94
1741.45
1891.99

45.50
46.33
45.96
46.63
46.59
46.72
48.39
48.36
48.47
47.78
48.61
50.08
51.23
49.22
48.83
48.64
49.00
48.64
45.56
42.94
42.84
42.82
42.13
40.02
40.36
39.73
39.37
39.44
39.44
39.51
40.34
40.82
40.42
40.77
40.78
42.15
44.03
44.16
44.33
44.63
44.85
45.47
46.12
46.54
46.46
46.06
45.41
44.95
44.48
44.33
44.40
45.65
45.73
44.82
43.92
43.63
43.54
43.59
43.49
43.74

Open
16530.00
15995.00
16620.00
15400.00
14930.00
15000.00
15000.00
15100.00
13550.00
12850.00
13000.00
13550.00
12000.00
11760.00
12120.00
12450.00
13960.00
14635.00
17440.00
18750.00
18735.00
18460.00
18500.00
19000.00
19650.00
18750.00
17780.00
17820.00
17820.00
19230.00
19450.00
19680.00
19850.00
20470.00
20700.00
19290.00
19750.00
19900.00
21000.00
20970.00
19950.00
21400.00
19500.00
18600.00
19690.00
20950.00
21640.00
19580.00
18910.00
21400.00
19250.00
17050.00
17100.00
16660.00
16450.00
16450.00
16620.00
16850.00
16710.00
16560.00

SHFE futures price (Yuan/tonne)

High
Low
16630.00
16790.00
18010.00
16850.00
15580.00
15210.00
15370.00
15390.00
15180.00
13850.00
13100.00
14900.00
13720.00
12560.00
12690.00
12600.00
14065.00
14635.00
17450.00
18820.00
19500.00
19020.00
19200.00
19200.00
20900.00
19850.00
19600.00
18490.00
18600.00
19260.00
19460.00
19750.00
20260.00
20600.00
21650.00
20490.00
19800.00
20220.00
21090.00
21390.00
21730.00
21810.00
22360.00
19880.00
19780.00
21250.00
24000.00
21570.00
20260.00
22250.00
21090.00
19980.00
17520.00
17430.00
16610.00
16580.00
16680.00
17400.00
17000.00
16950.00

16020.00
15675.00
15705.00
15300.00
14820.00
14620.00
13880.00
14250.00
13500.00
12850.00
12670.00
12560.00
11885.00
11610.00
11405.00
10040.00
12510.00
13020.00
14930.00
17200.00
18340.00
18400.00
18120.00
18505.00
18700.00
18590.00
17700.00
17500.00
16710.00
17740.00
19200.00
18990.00
19500.00
19610.00
20050.00
19110.00
19260.00
19520.00
19590.00
20680.00
19810.00
19960.00
19500.00
18470.00
18200.00
19340.00
20710.00
19550.00
18680.00
18660.00
19100.00
17050.00
17050.00
16660.00
16430.00
16380.00
16350.00
16550.00
16710.00
16500.00

Close
16220.00
16400.00
15900.00
16700.00
15315.00
15065.00
14825.00
14980.00
15005.00
13555.00
12800.00
12825.00
13495.00
12045.00
11715.00
11520.00
12565.00
13780.00
15245.00
17450.00
18820.00
18735.00
18465.00
18545.00
19180.00
19760.00
19440.00
17820.00
17750.00
17880.00
19380.00
19440.00
19730.00
19830.00
20250.00
20330.00
19310.00
19730.00
19730.00
21320.00
20770.00
20210.00
20980.00
19580.00
18590.00
19640.00
21150.00
20810.00
20060.00
18810.00
20780.00
19110.00
17430.00
17050.00
16590.00
16450.00
16490.00
16620.00
16810.00
16910.00

CNY/INR spot
Dollar index
Monthly average
6.66
6.78
6.73
6.83
6.83
6.84
7.09
7.08
7.09
6.99
7.12
7.34
7.50
7.21
7.14
7.11
7.18
7.12
6.67
6.28
6.26
6.22
6.04
5.72
5.70
5.55
5.43
5.35
5.32
5.27
5.36
5.38
5.34
5.34
5.32
5.46
5.68
5.69
5.69
5.70
5.70
5.75
5.81
5.84
5.82
5.75
5.66
5.61
5.54
5.51
5.50
5.65
5.65
5.54
5.43
5.39
5.29
5.26
5.25
5.03

80.81
80.27
77.98
77.00
75.40
76.17
77.19
78.53
79.71
80.26
82.11
85.55
86.71
86.84
84.83
83.65
86.77
83.53
78.37
76.21
72.79
73.41
73.05
72.38
72.72
75.77
76.00
76.79
75.67
77.78
79.14
80.87
80.61
82.21
82.01
81.95
83.17
84.28
84.58
83.07
84.72
86.11
85.25
84.91
85.61
85.37
84.69
88.13
89.58
90.26
88.83
90.63
91.37
89.54
87.99
87.86
89.55
88.33
85.63
84.24

Source: Exchanges websites, RBI

182 | Commodity Insights Yearbook 2010

A PwC & MCX Joint Endeavour | 183

Non-agricultural commodities

Aluminium Mine Production 2009e

Aluminium trading activity

Month MCX NYMEX SHFE
Volume Open Interest Volume Open Interest Volume Open Interest

9%

8%

USA

5%

China

Australia

35%

5%

Others

38%

Note: e estimates, Source: USGS

Aluminium Consumption 2009e

Other Asia

15%

China

Others

35%

12%

Japan

6%

North America

Western Europe

15%

17%

Note: e estimates; Source: GFMS Basemetals report

LME Aluminium Prices and US & China Industrial Production YOY

in %
25

Prices
3500

LME futures (USD/ton) - RHS

US IP YoY

20

China YoY

3000

15
10

2500

5
2000

0
-5

1500

-10
1000
Mar 10

Mar 09

Mar 07

Mar 08

Mar 06

Mar 05

Mar 04

Mar 03

Mar 02

Mar 01

Mar 00

Mar 99

Mar 98

Mar 97

Mar 96

Mar 95

Mar 94

-15
Mar 93

293358
324690
350384
353256
247592
257310
227858
279162
332978
235446
261164
313696
315454
206854
204064
218308
230090
175042
143888
127142
145812
142952
155630
183126
236440
206642
104892
86032
104408
137620
118706
117186
101156
129698
127224
143506
132196
151094
145130
154058
155678
190772
221444
194320
179538
159588
226270
244188
180500
159134
181700
78866
45042
40230
35112
37930
36606
31038
31228
33622

Mar 92

2467220
2603262
6936394
3565428
1730312
1400168
1961336
6071864
2707210
2092862
1378218
4981448
3562884
4025304
5407652
8998316
3116358
5765682
1632002
875690
1294954
629052
834904
965516
2784906
1213886
594998
539118
956700
493336
249952
426996
497166
512580
1047936
1378792
659546
598492
1742964
1124100
2898718
2797230
3581738
1403808
1403150
2275784
3196230
3249358
1976040
1757542
1356892
1320932
270652
238188
101830
126428
218478
265326
127398
210304

Mar 91

691083
702365
697343
683711
705473
703574
723266
743850
772203
766461
799220
740915
714350
701820
656537
694360
696415
698442
690491
689550
706594
707773
711564
720560
732430
719049
705858
671107
685883
656595
644357
635458
566710
562689
564858
560428
533236
529480
535288
524261
543009
545710
543871
512097
541154
546958
564572
549561
554487
525705
479493
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-

Mar 90

3747097
3675790
3503574
3725214
3320250
3641614
3651341
3990521
4327427
4867402
3925063
3376429
4402706
3237977
3961127
3891582
4105974
4164090
4451799
3417584
4374429
3922624
3605668
4066376
3436546
4270510
4284300
2721137
3794448
3344147
3238107
3984265
2828592
3127698
2663584
3163817
3187580
3624835
3727477
2745285
3600751
3309058
2802510
2775342
2428054
2667079
2975539
3073930
3193713
3208668
3051224
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-

Mar 89

1918
2063
2317
2489
1340
1803
2095
1886
2364
2843
2719
1362
936
469
844
1047
311
296
629
451
656
455
482
476
516
752
882
1260
1448
1821
1673
1540
1326
1409
3376
2499
1172
1141
1350
1242
1298
781
450
708
526
1844
2187
1246
60
14
13
1
4
1
-
-
-
-
-
-

Mar 88

117165
113419
138235
90944
45088
66485
71809
126281
66266
69241
20439
19288
12510
9048
13079
12505
5683
5177
6624
6900
15815
5284
6797
4243
13706
12397
16673
5746
13924
21255
22316
14390
15098
24668
32568
27444
74211
30987
24888
16114
19143
13345
25935
15608
14583
15868
37094
24303
7714
1566
3697
907
676
14
-
-
-
-
-
-

Mar 87

Mar-10
Feb-10
Jan-10
Dec-09
Nov-09
Oct-09
Sep-09
Aug-09
Jul-09
Jun-09
May-09
Apr-09
Mar-09
Feb-09
Jan-09
Dec-08
Nov-08
Oct-08
Sep-08
Aug-08
Jul-08
Jun-08
May-08
Apr-08
Mar-08
Feb-08
Jan-08
Dec-07
Nov-07
Oct-07
Sep-07
Aug-07
Jul-07
Jun-07
May-07
Apr-07
Mar-07
Feb-07
Jan-07
Dec-06
Nov-06
Oct-06
Sep-06
Aug-06
Jul-06
Jun-06
May-06
Apr-06
Mar-06
Feb-06
Jan-06
Dec-05
Nov-05
Oct-05
Sep-05
Aug-05
Jul-05
Jun-05
May-05
Apr-05

Russia

Canada

Note: IP - Industrial Production, Source: LME & respective govt. websites

Note: Vol and OI in lots; Aggregate volume in all contracts during the month; Cumulative open interest in all contracts at the month-end.
Source: Exchanges websites

184 | Commodity Insights Yearbook 2010

A PwC & MCX Joint Endeavour | 185