November/December 2011

Perspectives on Utahs Economy

Profiling the

Unemployed
Extended Mass Layoff Statistics in Utah

in Utah's Recession

Insider News: There's More Hiring Going on Than You Might Think

Fun, Beauty & Culture

Demographics, the Unemployed, and the REcESSIoN:

Who got hit hardest by unemployment during the recession?

Support Economic Growth

Census FaC toids

Pg. 14

Department of Workforce Services

Trendlines
Trendlines
is published every other month by the Utah Department of Workforce Services, Workforce Research and Analysis. To read, download, or print this publication (free), see our Internet site: http://jobs.utah.gov/wi. Click on Publications then select the one you want from the list. To obtain additional printed copies or to subscribe to Trendlines contact:
Utah Department of Workforce Services Executive Director Kristen Cox Workforce Research and Analysis Rick Little, Director Kimberley Bartel, Editor Contributors Linda Marling Church Mark Knold Lecia Parks Langston John Mathews Jim Robson Nate Talley Designer Pat Swenson

Department of Workforce Services

Attn: WRA 140 East 300 South Salt Lake City, UT 84111 Telephone: (801) 526-9462 Fax: (801) 526-9238 Email: wipublications@utah.gov The Workforce Research and Analysis Division generates accurate, timely, and understandable data and analyses to provide knowledge of ever-changing workforce environments that support sound planning and decision-making.

jobs.utah.gov
DWS-03-44-1111 Equal Opportunity Employer/Program Auxiliary aids and services are available upon request to individuals with disabilities by calling (801) 526-9240. Individuals with speech and/or hearing impairments may call the Relay Utah by dialing 711. Spanish Relay Utah: 1-888-346-3162.

2 november/december 2011

November/December 2011

Perspectives on Utahs Economy

Profiling the

Unemployed
Extended Mass Layoff Statistics in Utah

in Utah's Recession

contents
4 6 8
Surveying the Recession Upon Utah's Counties
Wasatch Front and Statewide

Insider News: There's More Hiring Going on Than You Might Think

Demographics, the Unemployed, and the RECESSION:

Fun, Beauty & Culture

Who got hit hardest by unemployment during the recession?

Support Economic Growth

CENSUS FAC TOIDS

Pg. 14

Demographics, the Unemployed, and the Recession

What's Happening

Department of Workforce Services

Extended Mass Layoff Statistics in Utah

Economic Insight

Profiling the Unemployed in Utah's Recession

10 12 14

Did the Recession Drive People to Higher Education?

National News

There's A lot More Hiring Going on Than You Might Think

Insider News

Census Factoids
For Your Information

pg. 6

16 20 22 25

Unemployment Insurance Usage During the Recession

The Outlook

Operating Engineers: Moving the Earth

Occupations

Fun, Beauty & Culture Support Economic Growth

The Outskirts

Is Utah's Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund Solvent?

DWS News

pg. 14

26 27

Construction
Industry Highlight

Just the Facts...

Rate Update

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wasatch front and statewide | by mark knold, chief economist

Surveying T the Recession Upon Utahs Counties

he Great Recession has taken its toll upon Utahs economy. Job counts are rebounding across the state but still remain below their peak level prior to the recession. Utah is starting to add jobs back to its rolls, with many counties seeing employment increasing. But several counties are noted as having multiple years of employment declines that have not yet reversed themselves. These are mostly rural counties and include Box Elder, Carbon, Emery, Iron, Juab, Morgan, Piute, Rich, Sanpete, Washington, and Weber. Some of these counties look like their employment levels have bottomed outthey just havent started to rebound yet. Others look like they are still trending downward. These less fortunate counties include Box Elder, Iron, Juab, Piute, Rich, and Sanpete counties. Box Elder has been impacted by manufacturing losses, including the closure of La-Z Boy and the cutbacks at ATK. Box Elder employment is down 16 percent since 2008. Carbon Countys fortunes are generally tied to the coal mining industry, and this is where the slide lies. It is not drasticdown 2 percentbut it is enough to note. Juab Countys employment is down 6 percent since 2008, with most of it being traced to construction and healthcare. Piute is such a small county that it doesnt take much for its numbers to fall. Yet employment is down 18 percent since 2008, and this is traced to trucking and retail trade. Rich County is a tourism-dependent county, relying upon summertime tourism and building expansion of cabins and summer homes. Both of these were impacted by the recession, so construction and leisure and hospitality declines account for Rich Countys 17-percent job loss since 2008. One of the larger rural economies in decline is Sanpete County. Down 11 percent since 2008, its woes are traced to manufacturing and construction.

Job counts are rebounding but still remain below peak level.
4 november/december 2011

Box Elder County Manufacturing down 16%

Piute County Trucking/retail trade down 18%

Rich County Construction/ leisure/hospitality down 17%

Juab County Construction/ healthcare down 6%

Sanpete County Manufacturing/ construction down 11%

Carbon County Coal mining down 2%

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what's happening | by lecia parks langston, economist

Demographics, the Unemployed, and the Recession:

Who got hit hardest by unemployment during the recession? Some felt the pain worse than others.

he recent recession was not an equal opportunity un-employer. Certain demographic groups felt the economic pain worse than others. The recent Bureau of Labor Statistics release of its Geographic Profile of Employment and Unemployment provides some insights to the demographics of Utahs unemployed.

mere 2.6 percentthe lowest joblessness of the post WWII era. In fact, for many employers the rate was too low. Labor seemed scarce and, following those old laws of supply and demand, wages took a decided hike.

How low can you go?

Comparing unemployment statistics for 2007 and 2010, contrasts the year with the lowest unemployment rates of the recent business cycle to the year with the highest rates. In 2007, Utahs unemployment rate measured a

Almost every demographic group managed a low unemployment rate in 2007. Women, men, whites, Latinos, and age groups older than 24 all showed jobless shares near (or below) 3 percent. Only young people those 24 years and youngerdisplayed significant levels of unemployment. Teenagers were worst off with a jobless rate of 11 percent.

6 november/december 2011

Quick Change

Fast forward three years. By 2010, Utahs annual unemployment rate had basically tripled to reach 8.2 percent. Following the typical pattern, men (who dominate employment in industries most affected by recession) experienced worse joblessness than did women. In 2007, women showed a higher unemployment rate than men. In 2010, joblessness for Utah men measured 9.5 percent, while womens rate had increased to just 6.6 percent. The Hispanic/Latino labor force also felt the pangs of unemployment to a greater degree than did whites. Latino labor force saw their joblessness more than quadruple from 3.1 percent to 12.6 percent in just three years. Statistically, the higher the age group, the lower the level of unemployment. That relationship generally holds true in boom and bust. However, during the recession, while teenagers unemployment rate doubled, the rate for 55-64 year-olds almost tripled. Nevertheless, unemployment for teenagers measured 21 percent compared to 5 percent for the 55-64 year-olds.

Utah Unemployment Rates by Demographic Group

Total Women Men White Hispanic 16-19 years 20-24 years 25-34 years 35-44 years 45-54 years 55-64 years 65 and older 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

2007 2010

Fair Share

Utah Share of Unemployment by Demographic Group

Women Men White Hispanic 16-19 years 20-24 years 25-34 years 35-44 years 45-54 years 55-64 years 65 and older NA 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

In 2007, women and men maintained equal shares of the number of unemployed persons. However, by 2010, men made up 65 percent of the jobless and womens share dropped to 35 percent. Also, as more older workers felt the sting of no job during the downturn, 16-19 year-olds saw their share of the unemployed drop from 20 to 13 percent. Those aged 25-34 accounted for the largest proportion (about one-fourth) during both good times and bad. The recession hit workers 35-44 particularly hard. Their share of unemployed workers increased from 14 percent in 2007 to 18 percent in 2011. For more information about the demographics of Utahs unemployed, see http://www.bls.gov/gps/

2007 2010

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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economic insight | by nate talley, economist

Mass Layoff
Statistics in Utah

Extended

mployee layoffs are an unfortunate reality of any free market economy. Even in healthy economic climates, some firms exit the market and no longer need the labor they once employed. During a recession, layoffs can be more prevalent as a decrease in the demand for goods and services spur some establishments to reduce their workforce. The state of Utah, in cooperation with the Bureau of Labor Statistics, conducts the Mass Layoff Statistics (MLS) program to identify and characterize significant job cutback events using data from the state unemployment insurance database. Unemployment insurance plays a role in identifying layoffs in that when a worker is laid off, that worker will usually qualify for unemployment insurance benefits. When the worker files for these benefits, their claim information is stored and the MLS program is able to compile it with other claims filed against the same employer. When these claims sum to more than 50 over a consecutive 5-week period, and the laid-off workers are separated from their jobs for more than 30 days, the respective employer is considered to have had an extended mass layoff. While layoffs and unemployment insurance claims are an economic phenom-

enon common to most labor markets, extended mass layoffs are not. In fact, Utahs mass layoff counts are so few that to aggregate and analyze them on a monthly, quarterly or even annual basis yields little insight. As such, the analysis herein sums mass layoffs and the associated initial unemployment insurance claims by industry, from the beginning of the most recent recession (the fourth quarter of 2007) to the second quarter of 2011. Note that the event and claim counts in the table do not sum to the total because the total includes data that must be suppressed at an industry level. Counts are suppressed when they are so small that the identity of the employer may be deduced. Also, keep in mind that the 29,183 total initial unemployment insurance claims depicted in the table only represent those claims that corresponded to a mass layoff. By contrast, there were nearly 21,000 initial claims filed in January of 2009 alone. The most telling information in the table belongs to the construction and manufacturing industries. Together, these industries

8 november/december 2011

accounted for almost 60 percent of the extended mass layoffs and almost 70 percent of the related unemployment insurance claims during the period studied. These statistics coincide with the significant job losses that the two industries experienced during the recession.

Beyond the construction and manufacturing industries, mass layoffs in Utah were relatively few, even during the slumping economic environment that was analyzed. To view mass layoff statistic data under a broader scope, go to www.bls.govb/mls to see how state data is combined to produce national mass layoff estimates.

The construction and manufacturing industries accounted for almost 60 percent of the extended mass layoffs.

Extended Mass Layoffs in Utah: 4th Quarter 2007 2nd Quarter 2011
Industry Layoff Events Initial Claims

Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction Construction Manufacturing Retail Trade Transportation and Warehousing Administrative and Waste Services Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Accommodation and Food Services Total*

5 51 49 7 4 11 7 13 12 169

505 8,414 12,214 789 372 1,950 927 1,852 1,129 29,183

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national news | by john mathews, economist

Did the Recession Drive People to

Higher

Education?

n recessionary times individuals often see the way toward economic security down a path of more training. With the recent perception of not being able to secure a better life, workers look at their options. Continued job search in a highly competitive job market is one option. But if the job seeker perceives their current job has limited upward mobility and stagnant earnings, another option is the opportunity provided by getting more training and/or a degree which may lead to better potential for the good life. We often hear that when the economy tanks people go back to school. New entrants in the world of work may have had higher education as a goal all along. Also, current workers losing their jobs or having their hours curtailed also see the light and may decide to pursue more training. These individuals perceive that their opportunities are limited and see more training as a viable option. A paradox presents itself. How do current marginally employed or unemployed persons afford to go back to school if they have no job and thus no way of paying for more education? One answer is through educational loans, grants, or scholarships. Funding may also include the use of savings and/or help from family. Regardless of the source of resources for education the desire for more education is still there. Financing education is a very important topic but the real thrust of this article is to look at the relationship of economic activity, or the lack of it, and the desire of workers to seek more education. Whats the evidence that recessions drive people to seek more training? One important indicator is to look at

10 november/december 2011

120,000
Utah Higher Education Enrollments by class Standing School Years 2001-2002 to 2009-2010

100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0

2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10

Vocational Lower Division Upper Division Basic Graduate Advanced Graduate Total

Source: Utah System of Higher Education (USHE), Data Book 2011, Tab C - Enrollments.

enrollment in our post-secondary education institutions. Enrollment numbers from the Utah System of Higher Education portrayed in the graph show average yearly full-time equivalent enrollment at Utahs public colleges and universities.* In the graph are counts of enrollment for vocational, lower division, upper division, basic graduate, advanced graduate, and the total. The time periods cover the school years 2001-2002 through 2009-2010. Enrollment early in the decade show what happened during the DotCom recession. Student counts peaked in 2003-2004 school year with 105,500 persons enrolled at the colleges and universities. Enrollments dropped to the 98,800 level in the 2006-2007 school year. These mid-decade years were Utahs boom period where the perception in the market was that jobs were plentiful and workers didnt need more training to get a job. Unemployment rates were near-record lows as the economy was rapidly expanding. Then came the Great Recession, beginning in December of 2007. As the recession deepened through 2008, enrollments increased from 98,800 to 103,600 (20082009 school year). Enrollment increased by 1.1 percent during the 2007-2008 school year to 3.7 percent the following year (2008-2009) then dramatically rose by 10.1 percent by the 2009-2010 school year. In actual numbers, enrollments increased from 99,900 to 114,100. In the last two years, thousands of students enrolled with the largest increase being for those lower division (entering) students. The overall increase for all levels of education was 10.1 percent but enrollment by lower division students jumped by 14.4 percent. All levels of educational (vocational, lower division, etc.) enrollment

increased between 2008-2009 and 2009-2010. Do many individuals go back to school when the economy tanks? The numbers, at least in this cursory look, tend to support that notion. Increases in enrollment cant all be attributed to economic forces. Utahs demographic and societal forces are at play here also. Notable is the younger age of its population and the emphasis placed on education in Utah. These forces aside, it does appear that a depressed economy does have a significant effect on enrollment. *University of Utah, Utah State University, Weber State University, Southern Utah University, Snow College, Dixie State College, Utah State University College of Eastern Utah, Utah Valley University, and Salt Lake Community College. Not included is data from private colleges and universities.

Information on the Utah System of Higher Education can be found at:

http://www.higheredutah.org/ about/research-data/

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insider news | by lecia parks langston, economist

Hiring
Going on
Than You Might Think
n recent years, economists and data watchers have been able to incorporate a number of new data sources to their arsenal of economic indicators. One of the most exciting additions, in my opinion, is the Local Employment Dynamics (LED) information. LED data is a melding of available census, survey, and administrative records which provides new insights on the economy and, in particular, the labor market.

Theres a lot More

It is fluid out there. . .

Ive been in this business a long time, and the new hire data produced by the LED program has truly opened my eyes to the fluidity of the labor market. A hire in this case simply represents a person on a companys payroll in the current quarter that wasnt on the payroll in the previous quarter. Typically, we analyze only the net changesare there more or fewer jobs now than in a previous time period? But obviously, individuals are constantly leaving jobs, finding jobs, and entering the labor market. The new hire data makes this fact abundantly clear.

Lots of hiring going on

Guess how many people were hired during the worst quarter of the Great Recession in Utah? Go ahead and take a guess. Well, you most likely guesstimated low. Almost 127,000 Utah workers found a new job in the first quarter of 2010. In other words, almost 12 percent of the jobs tracked by the LED system were held by a new hire. And, thats the worst quarter. These figures appear even more remarkable over time. New hires averaged more than 200,000 per quarter between 2007 and 2010.

12 november/december 2011

Utah New Hires

250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0
New Hires
Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Local Employment Dynamics.

300,000

Four-Quarter Moving Average

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Recessionary period as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

For more information and data from the LED program: http://lehd.did.census.gov/led/datatools/qwiapp.html

Seasonal Patterns
There is a very seasonal pattern to new hires. The first quarter of a year (January to March) shows the lowest hiring levels of the year, while the third quarter (July to September) always shows the highest annual new hires (although second quarter isnt far behind). On the other hand, despite increased retail hiring for the holiday season, the final quarter ranks third in terms of new hires.

Wheres the trend?

A quick and dirty way to track the trends in the new hire data is to use a fourquarter moving average. As you can see in the accompanying chart, new hires follow the same trajectory as the labor market in general. Hires surged in 2005 and 2006, peaked in 2007, plummeted in 2008, bottomed out in 2009, and are now on the uptick.

children that age). Individuals between 19 and 24 account for roughly 30 percent of new hires. And that share hasnt changed much over time. Slightly older adults24 to 35typically are responsible for one-fourth of new hires. However, this age groups share of hires has slowly been increasing. In the last two years, they have made up closer to 27 percent of new hires. Older adults are far less likely to be taking up new employment. Those between the ages of 55 and 64 typically account for only about 4 percent of new hires. But, their share of new hires has also increased somewhat in the past several years (to 5 percent)undoubtedly a secondary result of the recession. Finally, new hires are slightly more likely to be male (about 55 percent) than female. Thats not significantly different from their share of the labor force. And, not surprisingly, most new hires are in the largest countiesSalt Lake, Utah, Weber, and Davis. Together, they steadily generate 70 percent of new hires.

Other Stuff
Young adults are most likely to be new hires (no surprise to parents with

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for your information

The U.S. Census Bureau published Facts for Features; collections of statistics from the Census Bureaus demographic and economic subject areas intended to commemorate anniversaries or observances. Following is a selection of facts published in 2011.

Census
36.9 million - Number of U.S. residents who claimed Irish ancestry in 2009. This number was more than eight times the population of Ireland itself (4.5 million). Irish was the nations second most frequently reported ancestry, trailing only German. Sources: 2009 American Community Survey http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/ DatasetMainPageServlet?_program=ACS&_ submenuId=datasets_2&_lang=en and Ireland Central Statistics Office http://www. cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/ population/current/popmig.pdf 2.5 million - In July 1776, the estimated number of people living in the newly independent nation. Source: Historical Statistics of the United States: Colonial Times to 1970 http://www.census.gov/prod/ www/abs/statab.html 311.7 million - The nations estimated population on this July Fourth. Source: Population clock http://www.census.gov/ main/www/popclock.html

16,010 - The number of hardware stores (as of 2008), a place to buy hammers, wrenches, screwdrivers and other items high on the list of Fathers Day gifts. Additionally, there were 7,009 home centers across the country in 2008. Source: County Business Patterns http:// www.census.gov/econ/cbp/

Fathers day

st. PatriCks day

the Fourth oF July

Womens history month

111,000 - Number of female police officers across the country in 2009. In addition, there were about 9,700 women firefighters, 338,000 lawyers, 294,000 physicians and surgeons, and 38,000 pilots. (Note: Number of pilots pertains to 2008.) Source: Statistical Abstract of the United States: 2011, Tables 615 and 1082 http://www.census.gov/ compendia/statab/

14 november/december 2011

FaCtoids
$7.4 billion - The amount of money spent at family clothing stores in August 2010. Only in November and December were sales significantly higher. Similarly, sales at bookstores in August 2010 totaled $2.2 billion, an amount approached in 2010 only by sales in January. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services http://www.census.gov/mrts/www/mrts.html

BaCk to sChool

laBor day

$47,127 and $36,278 - The 2009 real median earnings for male and female full-time, year-round workers, respectively. Source: Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2009 http://www.census.gov/prod/2010pubs/p60-238.pdf

50.5 million - The Hispanic population of the United States as of April 1, 2010, making people of Hispanic origin the nations largest ethnic or race minority. Hispanics constituted 16.3 percent of the nations total population. In addition, there are 3.7 million residents of Puerto Rico, a U.S. territory. Source: American FactFinder: United States DP-1 http:// factfinder2.census.gov and http://www.census.gov/ prod/cen2010/briefs/ c2010br-04.pdf 25.6 - Median age of people in the United States of Mexican descent. This compared with 36.8 years for the population as a whole. Source: 2009 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates, Selected Population Profile in the United States: Mexican http://factfinder.census. gov

hisPaniC heritage month: sePt 15 oCt 15

halloWeen

CinCo de mayo

41 million - The estimated number of potential trick-ortreaters in 2010 children 5 to 14 across the United States. Of course, many other children older than 14 and younger than 5 also go trickor-treating. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census, http:// factfinder2.census.gov/ faces/nav/jsf/pages/index. xhtml

116.7 million - Number of occupied housing units across the nation in 2010 all potential stops for trick-ortreaters. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census, http:// factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/ pages/index.xhtml

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the outlook | by mark knold, chief economist

During the Recession

NOTE: The Utah Department of Workforce Services administers Utahs unemployment insurance program. All claimant activity is recorded and stored by this department. Individual records can be aggregated to produce cumulative statistical profiles of those filing for unemployment. Claimants were quantified across the period October 2008 through November 2010 statewide. This is a representative window in which the immediate and lingering consequences of the Great Recession had their strongest impact upon the unemployment insurance system.

Unemployment Insurance Usage

ot all geographic areas in Utah are the same. Urban and rural distinctions abound and industry makeup plays a part. Therefore, different usage patterns arise in filings for unemployment insurance claims. Different parts of the state show different levels of usage, and each area has its own distinct explanation. For example, a high amount of unemployment insurance activity surfaces in eastern Utah, specifically Uintah County. This is an economy heavily dependent on natural gas production. There was a period covering most of 2009 in which energy prices collapsed and employment levels fell off noticeably. As a result, this county experienced a pocket of high unemployment insurance usage (this includes Roosevelt in Duchesne County for the same reason). Another area with high usage is Washington County in the states southwest corner. This area was hit hard by the housing price bubble. Its sunbelt features and proximity to Las Vegas drove in-migration and resultant housing speculation. The end result was a sharply collapsing construction sector and an unprecedented three-year period of job loss. Claims counts soared in this region, an event that is much out of the ordinary for this normally high-flying economy. These events also impacted Iron County, Washington Countys neighbor to the north. Grand Countythe Moab areais another that stands out with high unemployment insurance usage. However, this may not be as noticeably tied to a significant deterioration of the local economy as seen in Washington and Uintah counties. Instead, it looks like normal usage, although the recession probably added some influence. Moab is an economy heavily dependent upon tourism, particularly nonwinter tourism. As such, Grand County exhibits a seasonal pattern of high unemployment insurance usage. Tourism-dependent workers work long enough to maintain unemployment insurance eligibility, then use this system to

16 november/december 2011

Utah Initial Unemployment Claims by Census Tract October 2008November 2010

White space assumes no initial claims

Census Tracts

Initial Claim Counts

2,001 - 3,000 1,001 - 2,000 601 - 1,000 301 - 600 13 - 300

A high amount of unemployment insurance activity surfaces in eastern Utah, specifically Uintah County.

The Washington County area was hit hard by the housing price bubble.

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.

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the outlook cont. | by mark knold, chief economist

bridge the winter down time. Nearly 47 percent of all claimants worked in the tourism industry (whereas the statewide average is only 7 percent). Because of this, it is difficult to separate the normal usage of the system from that caused by the recession. The same usage and difficulty in assessment can also be attributed to the Summit County area, up and over the mountains east of Salt Lake City. This county is the home to three major ski resorts. It is both a tourismdependent economy and a seasonal one. Therefore, it also has seasonal high usage, and again, it is difficult to separate the normal amount from any recession-generated usage. Forty percent of claimants come from tourism. Claims counts throughout the remainder of the state, including the metropolitan areas, largely follow population density profiles. Salt Lake is the states most populous county. Therefore it should, and does, have the most initial unemployment claims. Mapping county initial unemployment claims by census tracts does show patterns of high and low usage across the metropolitan area. There seems to be a pattern of low usage in the higher-income eastern tracts, and higher usage throughout the rest of the valley. The lowest quantity of claims is in the census tracts running along the foothills of the Wasatch Mountains bordering the valleys east side, including the avenues east of 1300 East between I-80 (south) and the University of Utah (north). The rest of the valley experienced higher claim counts, with most areas around South Salt Lake City southward toward Murray, neighborhoods in West Valley City, Kearns, Magna, and the far southwest corner of the valley. Evaluating the heavy usage in the southwest corner of the valley

presents something of a challenge. It is probably explained by the assumption that young workers have higher vulnerability to layoffs, as businesses look to retain more experienced and tenured workers. Younger workers are cheaper to replace. As the decade of the 2000s emerged, new families and workers looked for available land and housing. For many, their jobs are in Salt Lake County but the workers themselves located further into the countys fringes looking for lower housing costs. The real estate people label this drive till you qualify. This produced

That theory I believe holds weight. But unfortunately there is another factor playing out beside this, and it probably produces an overstatement of the amount of claims in these areas. These census tracts are 2000 Census tracts, built upon 2000 population levels. Population has grown disproportionately in all of the just mentioned areas since then. New census tracts from the 2010 Census are now available (but not quantified as such for this article). In these areas, where in 2000 there may have been one census tract there are now as many as six new tracts. The large tract in Salt Lake Countys southwest corner in the 2000 Census is now three separate tracts in the 2010 Census. The most dramatic change may be the 2000 Census tract that surrounds the northwest corner of Utah Lake in Utah County (making up parts of Lehi and the new town of Saratoga Springs). That one tract is now divided into six tracts in the 2010 Census. Its neighboring tract to the west surrounding the city of Eagle Mountain is now five tracts in the 2010 Census. The large 2000 Census tract in eastern Tooele County is now four separate tracts in the 2010 Census. There is no doubt that the large number of claims in these areas are a function of the initial unemployment insurance claimants being distributed by the 2000 Census boundaries, not 2010 boundaries. As the unemployment insurance data was quantified and located in census tracts available at the time2000 Census tractsthis data cannot be redistributed. Still, knowing the nature of those areas and the amount of young workers who inhabit them, it is hypothesized that they would still be areas of high claims distribution even if quantified to 2010 Census boundaries.

The southwest corner of the Salt Lake Valley also jumps out with the most initial unemployment insurance filers. If young workers are the ones vulnerable to layoffs, then claims should be high in these areas.
new communities where before there was only open land. This not only impacted southern Salt Lake County in its reach, but also northern Utah County and eastern Tooele County (to the west). These are areas now populated by new homes and in many cases, young workers. These areas, on a map, also jump out with the most initial unemployment insurance filers. Logic follows that if young workers are the ones vulnerable to layoffs, then claims should be high in these areas.

18 november/december 2011

Bountiful

Utah Initial Unemployment Claims by Census Tract October 2008November 2010 Close up of Wasatch Front
White space assumes no initial claims

Salt Lake City

West Jordan Draper Lehi Orem Provo

Census Tracts

Initial Claim Counts

2,001 - 3,000 1,001 - 2,000 601 - 1,000 301 - 600 13 - 300

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.

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19

occupations | by linda marling church, research analyst

ting ers: a perEngine O e g th ovin M

ave you ever watched kids playing in a sandbox? Digging in the sand, moving it from place to place, building something and then tearing it down. Keeps them occupied for long periods of time.

reports over 400,000 members, 1,000 instructors and hundreds of facilities across North America. Once the training has taken place, the real work begins. Operators run the machinery in all types of weather conditions and at all hours, often in remote locations. In addition, they must have a working knowledge of the machinery when it comes time for repairs. It is part of their job description to keep the job progressing and if that means time out for repairs, so be it. The job setting is often noisy, dusty, greasy, muddy, and can be dangerous. It is important to follow safety guidelines when performing this job. With the introduction of global positioning system (GPS) technology, which helps with grading and leveling activities, and computerized controls and improved hydraulics, the industry is more technologically advanced than in past years. These improvements require further training and a basic understanding of electronics and hydraulics.

Oftentimes, they have earth moving equipment, tractors, and such to help them fantasize about changing the face of the planet. Perhaps this is where it starts for some operating engineers, those folks who make a living operating the equipment that clears and grades the land to prepare for construction of roads, buildings, bridges, runways, dams, and levees, to name a few. Since one cannot list on a resume the time spent playing in a sandbox, how does one make the earth moving fantasy a reality? Operating engineers are trained through formal apprenticeships, on-the-job training, paid training programs, or a combination of these. An apprenticeship consists of at least three years, or 6,000 hours, of paid on-the-job experience together with 144 hours of classroom instruction each year. Since apprentices learn to operate a wide variety of equipment, they may have better job opportunities. One resource for apprenticeship programs is administered by the International Union of Operating Engineers, which

20 november/december 2011

About 63 percent of construction equipment operators work in the construction industry. Many equipment operators work in heavy and civil engineering construction, building highways, bridges, or railroads. About 16 percent of construction equipment operators work in local government. Othersmostly grader, bulldozer, and scraper operatorswork in mining. Some also work for manufacturing or utility companies. About 3 percent of construction equipment operators are self-employed. This occupation is expected to experience slower than average growth, nevertheless, there should be a high volume of annual job openings. Business expansion,

rather than the need for replacements, will provide the majority of job openings in the coming decade. In the short term, employment may be limited but should improve in concert with the economy. For those of us who have not forgotten our sandbox days, a former fencing contractor in Las Vegas has opened a business called Dig This, where, for a fee, visitors can operate a wide variety of construction equipment in a five-acre theme park. According to AARP magazine, about half the visitors to Dig This are women, proof that gender is no barrier to sandbox dreams of becoming operating engineers. http://www.iuoe.org www.bls.gov Associated General Contractors of America www.utah.gov

For more information:

UTAH Occupational WagesPublished June 2011

(data from May 2010) for Operating Engineers and Other Construction Equipment Operators
Area Name Box Elder and Rich Central Eastern Logan MSA Ogden-Clearfield MSA Provo-Orem MSA Salt Lake City MSA Southwest St.George MSA United States Utah Hourly Inexperienced $15.61 $14.33 $16.38 $14.56 $15.95 $13.34 $16.28 $11.07 $15.87 -$15.03 Hourly Median $18.43 $17.48 $19.41 $17.04 $20.86 $18.53 $20.16 $19.36 $19.68 $19.12 $19.60 Annual Inexperienced $32,460 $29,810 $34,060 $30,290 $33,180 $27,740 $33,870 $23,020 $33,010 -$31,250 Annual Median $38,330 $36,360 $40,370 $35,430 $43,390 $38,540 $41,930 $40,280 $40,920 $39,770 $40,760 Training Level Moderate-term OJT (1-12 months) Moderate-term OJT (1-12 months) Moderate-term OJT (1-12 months) Moderate-term OJT (1-12 months) Moderate-term OJT (1-12 months) Moderate-term OJT (1-12 months) Moderate-term OJT (1-12 months) Moderate-term OJT (1-12 months) Moderate-term OJT (1-12 months) Moderate-term OJT (1-12 months) Moderate-term OJT (1-12 months)

jobs.utah.gov/wi

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the outskirts | by jim robson, economist

Fun, Beauty & Culture

Support Economic Growth
he leisure and hospitality industry provides a significant number of jobs, wages, and economic activity within Utah. Not only do Utahns enjoy the great beauty, diversity, and year round recreation, travel, and tourism activities within the state, but people flock here from all parts of the globe. The visitors to our ski resorts, national and state parks, historical sites, and festivals bring with them the income that sustains the economic vitality of many communities across the state. Ten counties in Utah derive more than 15 percent of their nonfarm jobs from the leisure and hospitality industry (see Chart). For these counties, and others in the nonmetropolitan parts of the state, recreation, travel, and tourism activities are main economic drivers. The great recession began officially in the U. S. in December 2007 and lasted through June 2009, at which point production of goods and services began to grow once again. December 2007 coincides with peak nonfarm jobs in the nation and in Utah. On a seasonally adjusted basis there were 1,264,500 nonfarm jobs in Utah in December 2007, dropping by 91,500 jobs or 7.2 percent, to 1,173,000 by February 2010. Notice that when production began to climb once again in July of 2009, jobs in Utah continued to decline and did not began to growth until spring of 2010. The leisure and hospitality industry fared somewhat better during the

22 november/december 2011

Percent of Nonfarm Jobs in Leisure and Hospitality

by County Average for the Year Ending in March 2011
Garfield Summit Grand Kane Daggett Wayne Rich Wasatch Beaver Washington San Juan Piute Iron Sevier Davis Tooele Statewide Juab Millard Carbon Weber Uintah Morgan Utah Salt Lake Box Elder Cache Emery Sanpete Duchesne 5.4% 11.1% 10.7% 10.1% 9.9% 9.5% 9.4% 9.1% 9.0% 8.9% 8.6% 8.6% 8.3% 8.3% 8.1% 7.4% 7.2% 14.7% 13.8% 12.5% 15.6% 19.5% 17.2% 22.3% 27.2% 30.3% 28.7% 38.6% 38.2% 43.3%

recession, shedding fewer jobs and recovering faster. Again on a seasonally adjusted basis, leisure and hospitality employment within Utah peaked in December 2007 with 115,900 jobs. This industry hit bottom in December 2009, at 109,400 jobs, a reduction from the peak of 5.6 percent. By August 2011, the leisure and hospitality industry was 0.9 percent or 1,000 jobs below the December 2007 record. Total nonfarm jobs in Utah remain 3.7 percent below the pre-recession peak. The state will need an additional 46,500 jobs to return to the pre-recession level (see chart). The leisure and hospitality industry gives important support to overall economic activity in Utah, helping to pull the State out of the recession and into a brighter economic future. The high quality of life enjoyed by residents and visitors alike is closely tied to this industry.

Percent of Peak Employment December 2007

Jan. 2006 through August 2011 (Seasonally Adjusted Data)
102% 101% 100% 99% 98% 97% 96% 95% 94% 93% 92% 91% 90% 2006 2007 2008 Total Nonfarm 2009 Leisure & Hospitality Industry 2010 2011

citizens as well as visitors enjoy recreational activities and generate income to sustain our economic vitality.
jobs.utah.gov/wi

Utah

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.

trendlines

23

Did you know?

Texas (2.4%) California (1.2%) New York (1.0%) Ohio (1.6%) Michigan (2.1%) Pennsylvania (1.0%) Massachusetts (1.5%) Minnesota (1.7%) Oklahoma (2.8%) Illinois (0.8%) Washington (1.5%) Arizona (1.7%) Utah (3.0%) Louisiana (1.7%) Wisconsin (0.9%) Oregon (1.5%) Kentucky (1.2%) Iowa (1.4%) North Dakota (5.0%) Nebraska (1.7%) New Hampshire (1.7%) Hawaii (1.4%) Wyoming (3.0%) Vermont (2.0%) Georgia (-0.8%) -29,500

Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that Utah is currently tied with Wyoming as the second fastest growing state in new job creation.
Selected states August 2010-August 2011 seasonally adjusted
253,200 171,300 83,400 80,300 79,800 56,600 48,000 44,300 42,700 42,400 41,500 39,700 35,200 31,600 24,700 The largest over-the-year 23,200 percent increases were 21,900 North Dakota (5percent), 20,000 Utah (3 percent) and 18,900 Wyoming (3 percent). 16,400 10,700 8,400 8,400 5,800 Over-the-year change in payroll jobs

Statistically Significant Employment Changes

To learn more, see "Regional and State Employment and Unemployment August 2011" http://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/laus_09162011.pdf

Over the year to August 2011, 25 states experienced statistically significant changes

in nonfarm payroll employment, 24 of which were increases. The largest increase occurred in Texas (+253,200), followed by California (+171,300), New York (+83,400), Ohio (+80,300), and Michigan (+79,800). The only state with an over-the-year statistically significant decrease in employment was Georgia (29,500). The largest over-the-year percentage increase in nonfarm payroll employment occurred in North Dakota (+5.0 percent), followed by Utah and Wyoming (+3.0 percent each).

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

24 november/december 2011

dws news | by bill starks, unemployment insurance director

Is Utahs

Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund

mployers subject to the Employment Security Act are required to pay contributions (unemployment taxes) to the Unemployment Insurance (UI) Compensation Trust Fund. This money is used to pay unemployment insurance benefits to individuals who become unemployed, through no fault of their own.

Solvent?

Federal government or issue state bonds. Utahs current Trust Fund balance (as of August 24, 2011) is $360 million (see chart below). Based on new projections, employment trends, and improved unemployment rates, it is anticipated Utahs UI Trust Fund will remain solvent (see chart below), however it may go as low as $200 million. The Department of Workforce Services (DWS) has been proactive with multiple initiatives to help ensure the long-term solvency of Utahs Trust Fund, implementing enhanced integrity and reemployment initiatives. DWS will continue to closely monitor the Trust Fund and may consider recommending minor changes to the tax rate formulas to ensure longterm solvency. DWS goal is to keep the UI Trust Fund solvent.

An employers overall tax rate is based on a statutory formula that factors in several components to insure the solvency of the UI Trust Fund and to equitably adjust tax rates on employers that are responsible for generating these costs. The higher benefit costs associated with the economic downturn, have resulted in a significant decline in Utahs UI Trust Fund balance over the past two years. Thirty-two states trust funds have become insolvent during the last three years and they have been forced to borrow over $46 billion from the

Utah Trust Fund Balance Projections

Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services, Unemployment Insurance Division.

jobs.utah.gov/wi

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industry highlight | by lecia parks langston, economist

Construction

Industry Highlight
Construction employment is seasonal; a noteable number of workers are unemployed even during a good economic year.

f you like volatility, youll like the construction industry employment data. Obviously, this industry remains extremely prone to the vicissitudes of the business cyclethe most recent example is just barely behind us. Employment fell from a high of almost 110,000 in August 2007 to a low of 59,200 in February 2010. Fortunately, survey data suggests that the industry has finally started to improve with a year-to-year increase of 0.6 percent in August 2011. In 2010, construction employment accounted for 5.5 percent of Utahs total nonfarm jobs. In 2007, its share of employment measured more than 8 percent of the total. However, its important to note that the housing bubble and speculation over-inflated construction employment during the recent boom years. In addition, construction employment (like the weather) is very seasonal in nature. (Note the chart that accompanies this article.) Employment is highest in the summer months and lowest in the coldest months. That means a notable number of construction workers are unemployed in the course of even a very good economic year. In 2010, the average monthly wage for construction workers was $3,500 compared to $3,250 for all employment. However, seven major industries (including manufacturing) pay higher wages on average than construction.

utah Construction employment

120,000 100,000

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0 2001

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26 november/december 2011

rate update | workforce information

just the . acts.. f

august 2011 seasonally adjusted unemployment rates
Beaver Box Elder Cache Carbon Daggett Davis Duchesne Emery Garfield Grand Iron Juab Kane Millard Morgan Piute Rich Salt Lake San Juan Sanpete Sevier Summit Tooele Uintah Utah Wasatch Washington Wayne Weber 8.0 % 9.2 % 5.3 % 7.6 % 7.0 % 7.0 % 5.8 % 8.4 % 12.5 % 11.6 % 9.1 % 10.8 % 8.4 % 5.8 % 5.9 % 8.1 % 6.0 % 7.3 % 13.0 % 9.4 % 8.3 % 6.6 % 7.8 % 5.3 % 7.5 % 8.6 % 9.4 % 11.4 % 8.6 %

August 2011 Unemployment Rates

Utah Unemployment Rate U.S. Unemployment Rate Utah Nonfarm Jobs (000s) U.S. Nonfarm Jobs (000s) 7.6 % 9.6 % 1,212.5 131,552.0

Changes From Last Year

unchanged Down 0.5 points Up Up 2.9 % 1.1 %

August 2011 Consumer Price Index Rates

U.S. Consumer Price Index U.S. Producer Price Index 226.5 191.6 Up Up 3.8% 6.5%

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

Next Issue:
Watch for these features in our
A Look Forward and a Look Back

Theme:

Industry Highlight:
Waste Management Waste Management Occupations

Occupation:

jobs.utah.gov/wi

trendlines

27

Utah Department of Workforce Services Workforce Research and Analysis Division 140 E. 300 S. Salt Lake City, UT 84111

Presorted Standard US Postage PAID SLC, UT Permit # 4621

Finding your job just got easier.

The Department of Workforce Services provides you with the most complete resources and innovative tools you need to be successful in launching your career. DWS, Utahs Job Connection.

http://jobs.utah.gov/jobseeker