THINGS THAT MAKE YOU GO

Hmmm...

2.

Nuclear Power Generation Post-Fukushima: A Perspective

by Thomas Drolet

time in the 55 year history of Commercial Nuclear Power was as a result of the Fukushima nuclear accident, which occurred on March 11, 2011, and was caused by the largest earthquake and tsunami in modern history off the NE coast of Japan. The 9.0 earthquake did cause some initial mechanical and electrical systems damage at the Fukushima Daiichi reactor units, but the thirty minute later arrival of a 45 foot wall of Tsunami driven sea water spelt the end of one of Tokyo Electrics largest reactor sites. The resultant story has been told very well and in many places. Approximately 120,000 people have been displaced from the approximate 15 mile exclusion zone (and some beyond) surrounding the Dai-ichi site. Many billions of dollars have already been spent stabilizing cooling to the damaged spent fuel bays and reactor cores of four of the six reactors at site. Initial projections of time and cost to clean up the devastated and unusable site itself have been put forward, but I believe that they are woefully lacking. In my opinion, we are at least into a 10-year process involving some $80 Billion US to take the site back to a brown field condition. Other major nuclear accidents at Three Mile Island in the USA and Chernobyl in the former USSR did caused significant pauses in the growth of nuclear power in various countries of the world. However, despite these pauses in the USA and some countries of Europe, growth did eventually continue in many countries in Asia ...... predominantly Japan, South Korea and China. Today there are approximately 430 reactors in some 31 countries of the world. However, post Fukushima several countries such as Germany and Switzerland have indicated that they will close down their combined total of 24 reactors by the early 2020s. Given that some other countries are also putting a hold on future developments, it is safe to say that in the next decade or so, the worlds complement of reactors will reasonably flat-line and only resume there upwards trend line when new reactor builds in China, India, France, the UK and the Czech republic come on stream. China alone is in the process of building and committing a further 30+ reactors, India in the order of 10 reactors and the Czech Republic a few. Several countries of the Middle East, most notably the UAE and Saudi Arabia are pushing ahead with plans to build upwards of a total of 10 reactors over the next decade and a half. In the interim, I believe a time for deep reflection on many counts is appropriate for the nuclear industry (safety systems, fuel storage systems, location issues, cost, regulatory policies, time to build , etc.). The Japanese situation has shown that some reactor types that were committed back in the 60s and early 70s have systems that are now clearly out of technical date. Substantial, innovative new technology involving passive safety systems, modular build outs, more robust shutdown system designs and better dry storage techniques for used fuel have clearly superseded some of the technologies of yesteryear. Technology systems do evolve in every sphere of life. Nuclear technology cannot be an exception. Extensive modifications need to be made to older plants in many countries. Nuclear power plants can and should have a lifetime based on the availability of more efficient and safe designs and, of course, on the safety performance of its currently installed systems. Designing an overall electrical supply system in the modern era requires a balance of sources of generation. The peak and valley demands for electricity in any franchise service district requires a complement of base load generators, peeker generating units and generating units which ride on the system to act as spinning reserve and be available when demand quickly appears. I call this the Mr.

here are times when a major event can indeed change the course of an industry. One such

07November2011

THINGS THAT MAKE YOU GO

Hmmm...

3.

Miyagi approach to planning an electrical supply system. Balance in fuels and generating unit types is everything. Diversification in generation hardware and fuel sources, just like in our individual market investment portfolios is a solid, time-honoured route to success. Currently, in most electrical supply systems, nuclear power, hydroelectric power and geothermal power supply the base load component required for the core needs of the electricity supply system. Coal and natural gas fired plants are used as sustained peeker units in the daytime hours for the increased demands of industry and commerce. In the last two decade plus, renewable energy has made dramatic in-roads into some supply systems, especially in Europe and in some areas of the USA. Despite the incredibly fast growth curve for installed units, solar and wind still represent in the order of 1 to 2% of actual electricity generation worldwide. Higher capital costs and the variability of sunshine and wind will eventual limit their contribution to the electrical grids until, and if, excess electricity generation storage systems for solar wind power are proven and become economic. I would argue another decade of R&D would result in more economic solar and wind electricity supply systems, wherein their growth trend will resume its upward climb. Shale Gas is proving to be an incredibly prolific (and worldwide too) new source of natural gas that has turned its supply from one of worry, to one of great hope for potential becoming the bridge source of electricity supply in the mid term future. Hydroelectric power has substantially been developed and is currently supplying about 15% of the worlds electricity. Geothermal power today is limited to tectonic plate interfaces (aka--the Pacific ring of fire, the Rift Valley in Africa etc). However new developments using innovative new technologies promise much more democratically worldwide available base load powers supply system. So, what to do for the future we ask ourselves. The current worldwide investment of some $14 + Trillion (thats with a T) in electrical system generation, transmission and distribution hardware cannot and should not be changed radically and quickly. That size of an equity investment is too much of a core need for society to function properly and safely. Change in power supply systems must be for reasons of economics, sustainability, environmental impact and operational safety. That will evolve, by the necessities above, as an incremental process.

In summary Nuclear Power:

1... Close down and right off clearly unsafe or out of date technology reactors. New Mark 3+ and Mark 4 reactors by Areva, Toshiba, GE, Westinghouse, Mitsubishi , etc., have innovative systems that can compete economically in some electricity supply systems. They can and should provide the muchneeded base load core supply for many countries. New small reactor designs (B&W, NuScale, Fuji , etc.) need regulatory policy support and industry financed R&D... but will make a contribution in the post 2018-2020 period. We need to put used fuel into dry cask storage pods...please ASAP. Many nations need to license and put into service final deep geological repositories for this used (and spent) fuel. The USA situation is particularly problematic with several incredible and questionably legal Administration policy about-faces concerning its proposed repository in Nevada. 2..... Given new areas of discoveries of economically mineable Uranium fuel (Canada, Kazakhstan, USA, Russia, South Africa, China, Namibia etc.) to compliment existing the major today suppliers from Canada, Kazakhstan, Australia, means that there is approximately 60-80 years of uranium supply for the projected world wide build out of the 430 systems in-service today that can also meet the currently projected total of some 650 units in service by 2045. The Athabasca region of northern Saskatchewan Canada, the Colorado/Utah/Nevada basins and an area in Virginia USA are the nearby

07November2011

THINGS THAT MAKE YOU GO

Hmmm...

4.

developable fields in North America. China and Mongolia have ever-increasing supply possibilities. Reprocessing of spent fuel will provide some fuel recycling capability. 3.... Thorium is a heavy element potential reactor fuel for future new reactor designs that is about four times as abundant as is uranium in the earths crust. Several organizations in the US, India, China, and Canada are working on what will be extensive R&D and demonstration programs. It is widely believed that this fueling system has some (limited) non-proliferation and even further safety benefits for operation. In a world that seems to be out of balance in so many areas like economics, finance and peoples perception of fairness in their treatment by many somewhat unstable Government institutions, it seems to me that we need to grow and evolve our electrical systems in a thoughtful, balanced, economic way. Nuclear Power should be a portion of that ever-changing balancing act.
O O O O O O O O O O

Thomas. S Drolet has had a 42-year career in many phases of EnergyNuclear (dominant), Coal, Natural Gas, Geothermal, Distributed Generation (all including Commercial aspects, R&D, Engineering, Operations and Consulting). Tom has a bachelors degree in Chemical Engineering from Royal Military College of Canada, a Masters of Science degree in Nuclear Technology/Chemical Engineering and a DIC from Imperial College, University of London, England. He spent 26 years with North Americas largest nuclear Utility--Ontario Hydro in various nuclear engineering, research (as attached to Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd at CRNL) and nuclear operations functions. He formed and headed one of Canadas R&D Programs into Nuclear Fusion. In 1993 he was named President and CEO of Ontario Hydro, working in 44 countries around the globe on electrical Utility issues. He was sent to the USSR soon after the Chernobyl accident in 1986 to advise on the major accident and its aftermath. He also advised various authorities on Three Mile Island and has been on TV talking about Fukushima Dai-ichi several times since the earthquake/tsunami/accident. He has given over 175 presentations on generic energy issues and on Nuclear Energy over the last 35 years. He continues consulting in most sectors of energy worldwide. He currently serves on two Board of Directorships in the energy field and advises uranium mining (Canada and USA). He has been and still is involved in Geothermal Energy projects in the USA, Canada, Chile, Peru and Kenya.

Thomas S. Drolet
President Drolet and Associates Energy Services, Inc. tdrolet@tsdenergy.com www.droletenergy.com

07November2011