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ata Preparation and Distribution Estimation

Permintaan kota A 350 350 400 250 300 200 400 200 300 300 300 400 200 200 300 400 300 300 250 400 300 300 300 400 250 300 300 300 200 300 300 400 300 400 400 400 350 200

loss bahan baku (dlm %)

van yg digunakan

300 250 300 200 200 200 300 200 300 200 350 400

istribution Estimation

Generating Probability Distribution for Permintaan Kota A Permintaan kota A Cumulative Frequency Relative Frequency Cumulative Probability

Total

Generating Probability Distribution for Loss Bahan Baku Loss Bahan Baku Cumulative Frequency Relative Frequency Cumulative Probability

total

Generating Probability Distribution for Van

van

Cumulative

Relative

Cumulative

yg digunakan Frequency

Frequency

Probability

total

on for Permintaan Kota A Relative Probability

tion for Loss Bahan Baku Relative Probability

istribution for Van

Relative

Probability

escriptive Statistic Result

loss BB Mean Standard Error Median Mode Standard Deviation Sample Variance Kurtosis Skewness Range Minimum Maximum Sum Count Largest(1) Smallest(1) Confidence Level(95.0%) n max min log n k Class Int

Penentuan Interval Kelas

Class Limit

terval Kelas

Frek kumulatif

frek relatif

Probabilitas

itting Input Distribution Trough "Chi-Square Good


Uji Distribusi
Class Limit Class Boundaries Oi

Distribusi Normal Average Value Standard Deviation Chi-Square Probability Counted Chi Square Tabel's Chi-Square Result Analysis :

: : : : :

H0 : Relative Prob. Fits to Normal Distribution H1 : Relative Prob. Fitless to Normal Distribution If X2 counted > X2 Tables, H0 would be refused If X2 counted < X2 Tables, H0 would be accepted Result : Relative Probability :

FITLESS

Distribusi Eksonensial

Result Analysis : H0 : Relative Prob. Fits to Exponential Distribution H1 : Relative Prob. Fitless to Exponential Distribution If X2 counted > X2 Tables, H0 would be refused

If X2 counted < X2 Tables, H0 would be accepted Result : Relatife Probability :

Distribusi Poisson Average Value Standard Deviation Chi-Square Probability Counted Chi Square Tabel's Chi-Square Result Analysis :

: : : : :

H0 : Relative Prob. Fits to Poisson Distribution H1 : Relative Prob. Fitless to Poisson Distribution If X2 counted > X2 Tables, H0 would be refused If X counted < X2 Tables, H0 would be accepted
2

Result : Relative Probability :

"Chi-Square Goodness of Fit" Test


Normal P(b) P(a) P Ei

with Normal Distribution

Distribution ial Distribution

with Exponential Distribution

ribution Distribution

would be refused e accepted with Poisson Distribution

reparing The Measurement of Simulation


1. Distribution of Permintaan Lampu di kota A Permintaan ( buah ) Cumulative Probability Relative Probability Random Number Generation

2. Distribution of loss Bahan Baku Penjualan (%) Cumulative Probability Relative Probability Random Number Generation

3. Distribution of Van Van Cumulative Probability Relative Probability Random Number Generation

4. Kota A Minggu

Random Digit

Permintaan

t of Simulation
loss VLOOKUP TABLE Minggu

VLOOKUP TABLE

VLOOKUP TABLE

8. van Generated Minggu Random Digit

van

stedev mean Random Digit

6.894659276 17.12 rand normal % loss sel

alidation Simulation Model


1. Kota A Pipa L Simulation Result for Kota A Permintaan ( buah ) Cumulative Frequency Relative Frequency

Validation for kota A Permintaan ( buah ) Relative Frequency Actual Simulation

Total

Chi-Square Probability Counted Chi Square Tabel's Chi-Square Result Analysis :

: : :

H0 : Simulation Result Fits to Actual Data H1 : Simulation Result Fitless to Actual Data If X2 counted > X2 Tables, H0 would be refused If X2 counted < X2 Tables, H0 would be accepted Result : Simulation Result :

FITLESS

with Actual Data

N E X T

2. Simulation Result for Van Van yg dipakai Cumulative Frequency Relative Frequency

Validation for Van Yg Digunakan Van yg Digunakan Relative Frequency Actual Simulation

Chi-Square Probability Counted Chi Square Tabel's Chi-Square Result Analysis :

: : :

H0 : Simulation Result Fits to Actual Data H1 : Simulation Result Fitless to Actual Data If X2 counted > X2 Tables, H0 would be refused If X2 counted < X2 Tables, H0 would be accepted Result : Simulation Result :

FITLESS

with Actual Data

3. Loss Bahan Baku Simulation Result for Loss BB Class Limit Frekuensi Kumulatif Frekuensi Relatif

Validation for HPP Class Limit Data Aktual Simulation result

Chi-Square Probability Counted Chi Square Tabel's Chi-Square Result Analysis :

: : :

H0 : Simulation Result Fits to Actual Data H1 : Simulation Result Fitless to Actual Data If X2 counted > X2 Tables, H0 would be refused If X2 counted < X2 Tables, H0 would be accepted Result : Simulation Result :

FITLESS

with Actual Data

imulation Table
Tender 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 Permintaan kota A Loss BB jenis van kapasitas bahan baku diterima

36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

yang selesai

yg tidak selesai

hpp

rugi pesanan

laba kotor

Earning Before Tax

Pajak 0

earning After Tax

Akumulasi Penyusutan

Nilai Sisa

Net Income Cash Flow

imulation Result Analysis


1. Rata-rata Laba Kotor Total laba kotor Total Tender :

2. Rata-rata Earning Sebelum pajak Total Harga Earning Sebelum pajak Total Tender 3. Rata-rata Earning Setelah Pajak Total Earning Setelah Pajak Total Tender 4. Rata-rata Net Income Cash flow Total NICF Total Tender 5. Rata - rata Beban Pajak Total Beban Pajak Total Tender