2QFY2012 Result Update | Oil & Gas

November 4, 2011

ONGC

BUY

Performance Highlights

CMP
Target Price

Y/E March (` cr)

2QFY12

2QFY11

% chg (yoy)

1QFY12

% chg (qoq)

Total Operating Income

22,616

18,194

24.3

16,199

39.6

EBITDA

14,469

11,322

27.8

9,470

52.8

64.0

62.2

174bp

58.5

551bp

8,642

5,389

60.4

4,095

111.1

EBITDA Margin (%)

PAT

Investment Period

Oil & Gas

Sector
Market Cap (` cr)
Beta

For 2QFY2012, ONGCs top line grew by 24.3% yoy on account of higher
realization. PAT for the quarter grew by 60.4% yoy due to a decline in
depreciation, depletion and amortization (DD&A) expenses. We maintain our Buy
recommendation on the stock.

52 Week High / Low

Higher realization lifts ONGCs top line: ONGCs top line for the quarter grew by
24.3% yoy to `22,616cr, in-line with our estimate of `22,991cr. ONGCs top-line
growth was driven by higher net realization, which grew by 33.4% yoy to
US$83.7/bbl. Crude oil sales volume decreased by 1.6% yoy to 5.8mn tonnes.
The company shared a subsidy burden of `5,713cr in 2QFY2012 vs. `3,019cr of
subsidy shared in 2QFY2011 and `12,046cr in 1QFY2012.

Nifty

Outlook and valuation: Going forward, we expect incremental production from

marginal fields to more than offset any decline in production from the ageing
fields. ONGCs subsidiary, OVL is also expected to report a jump in volumes by
FY2013 to ~12mn tonnes, with incremental productions. Although there is an
FPO overhang on the stock in the near term, we believe increased volumes and
net realization should offset these concerns. We maintain our Buy rating on the
stock with a target price of `324.

12 Months

Stock Info

Source: Company, Angel Research

Decline in DD&A expenses spurts PAT growth: Despite a 33.4% increase in crude
oil realization, EBITDA margin expanded by only by 174bp yoy to 64.0% on
account of a 36.0% yoy increase in royalty expenses to `2,880cr. EBITDA
registered a 27.8% yoy increase to `14,469cr. DD&A expenses decreased by
25.5% yoy to `3,337cr due to lower dry well write-offs. Consequently, net profit
increased by 60.4% yoy to `8,642cr, significantly above our estimate of `6,161cr.

`278
`324

237,543
0.6
349/227

Avg. Daily Volume

414776

Face Value (`)

BSE Sensex

17,563
5,284

Reuters Code

ONGC.BO

Bloomberg Code

ONGC@IN

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoters

74.1

MF / Banks / Indian Fls

7.0

FII / NRIs / OCBs

5.2

Indian Public / Others

Abs. (%)

13.7

1yr

3yr

Sensex

(0.7) (15.9)

3m

65.2

ONGC

1.6 (19.0)

45.9

Key financials (Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr)
Net sales
% chg
Net profit

FY2010

FY2011

FY2012E

FY2013E

101,755

117,611

125,242

138,164

(2.7)

15.6

6.5

10.3

19,404

22,456

26,785

28,514

% chg

(2.0)

15.7

19.3

6.5

OPM (%)

44.2

41.2

43.9

42.3

EPS (`)

22.7

26.2

31.3

33.3

P/E (x)

12.2

10.6

8.9

8.3

2.3

2.1

1.8

1.6

P/BV (x)
RoE (%)

20.0

20.7

21.5

19.9

RoCE (%)

19.9

19.1

20.5

19.3

EV/Sales (x)

2.1

1.8

1.6

1.3

EV/EBITDA (x)

4.9

4.5

3.8

3.4

Source: Company, Angel Research

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Bhavesh Chauhan
Tel: 022 - 3935 7800 Ext: 6821
bhaveshu.chauhan@angelbroking.com

ONGC | 2QFY2012 Result Update

Exhibit 1: 2QFY2012 performance (Standalone)

Y/E March (` cr)

2QFY2012 2QFY2011 % chg (yoy) 1QFY2012 % chg (qoq)

Total Operating Income

22,616

Total operating expenditure

EBITDA
EBITDA Margin (%)

18,194

24.3

16,199

39.6

8,148

6,872

18.6

6,729

21.1

14,469

11,322

27.8

9,470

52.8

64.0

62.2

58.5

Other Income

1,133

906

25.0

727

55.8

Depreciation

3,337

4,400

(24.2)

4,122

(19.1)

Interest

617.6

62.8

12,258

7,827

56.6

6,070

101.9

54.2

43.0

Total Tax

3,616

2,438

% of PBT

29.5

31.2

8,642

5,389

8,642

5,389

38.2

29.6

PBT
PBT Margin (%)

PAT
Exceptional items
Adj. PAT
PAT Margin (%)

37.5
48.3

1,976

83.0

32.5
60.4

4,095

111.1

60.4

4,095

111.1

25.3

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 2: Segmental performance

Y/E March

2QFY2012 2QFY2011 % chg (yoy) 1QFY2012 % chg (qoq)

Net sales (` cr)

Crude oil

172,700

130,440

32.4

110,930

34,700

35,840

(3.2)

33,460

3.7

6,850

5,440

25.9

5,410

26.6

17,060

10,670

59.9

15,550

9.7

3,410

1,750

94.9

2,140

59.3

Crude oil (US$/bbl)

83.7

62.8

33.3

48.8

71.5

Natural Gas (`/tcm)

Natural Gas
LPG
Naphtha
C2-C3

55.7

Average realization
6,871

7,111

(3.4)

6,859

0.2

LPG (US$/mt)

574

461

24.5

508

12.9

Naphtha (US$/mt)

939

646

45.3

996

(5.7)

C2-C3 (US$/mt)

578

433

33.5

563

2.7

Crude oil (mn tonnes)

5.8

5.9

(1.7)

5.7

1.8

Natural Gas (bcm)

5.1

5.0

2.0

4.9

4.1

LPG (tmt)

261

254

2.8

238

9.7

Naphtha (tmt)

397

355

11.8

349

13.8

C2-C3 (tmt)

129

87

48.3

85

51.8

Sales volume

Source: Company, Angel Research

November 4, 2011

ONGC | 2QFY2012 Result Update

Exhibit 3: 2QFY2012 Actual vs. Estimates

(` cr)

Actual

Estimates

Variation (%)

Total Operating Income

22,616

22,991

(1.6)

EBITDA

14,469

12,645

14.4

64.0

55.0

897bp

8,642

6,161

40.3

EBITDA Margin (%)

PAT
Source: Company, Angel Research

Net crude oil realization grew by 33.4% yoy: ONGCs top line for the quarter grew by
24.3% yoy to `22,616cr, in-line with our estimate of `22,991cr. ONGCs top-line growth
was driven by increased net realization, which grew by 33.4% yoy to US$83.7/bbl.
Oil production remained flat yoy at 6.8mn tonnes, while gas production volume increased
by 2.2% yoy to 6.4bcm during 2QFY2012. However, the companys crude oil sales volume
decreased by 1.6% yoy to 5.8mn tonnes. The company shared a subsidy burden of `5,713cr
in 2QFY2012 vs. `3,019cr of subsidy shared in 2QFY2011 and `12,046cr in 1QFY2012.

Exhibit 4: Operating revenue growth trend

24,000

34.2

21,000
24.3

18,000

20.2

18.5

13.2

12,000

(%)

(` cr)

15,000
9,000

0.7

6,000

(8.7)

3,000

40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
(5.0)
(10.0)
(15.0)

4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12

Total operating revenues

Total operating revenues growth (RHS)

Source: Company, Angel Research

EBITDA increases by 27.8% yoy: Despite a 33.4% increase in crude oil realization,
EBITDA margin expanded by only 174bp yoy to 64.0% on account of a 36.0% yoy increase
in royalty expenses to `2,880cr. EBITDA registered a 27.8% yoy increase to `14,469cr
during the quarter.

November 4, 2011

ONGC | 2QFY2012 Result Update

Exhibit 5: Operating performance trend

16,000

69.0
65.0

12,000

(` cr)

10,000

58.9

8,000

64.0

61.4
59.3

66.0
63.0
60.0

58.5

57.0

6,000

(%)

14,000

54.0
49.5

4,000

51.0

2,000

48.0

45.0
4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12
Operating Profit

Operating Margins (RHS)

Source: Company, Angel Research

Lower DD&A expenses lift PAT growth: DD&A expenses decreased by 25.5% yoy to
`3,337cr due to lower dry well write-offs. Consequently, net profit increased by 60.4% yoy to
`8,642cr, significantly above our estimate of `6,161cr.

Exhibit 6: PAT growth trend

140.0

132.0

120.0
100.0

71.1
60.4

3,000
2,000
1,000
-

80.0
60.0

(%)

(` cr)

10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000

40.0
11.8

5.9
(24.5)

(26.1)

20.0
(20.0)
(40.0)

4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12

PAT

PAT growth (RHS)

Source: Company, Angel Research

November 4, 2011

ONGC | 2QFY2012 Result Update

Investment argument
Volumes expected to boost valuations: ONGCs extant fields are matured and,
thus, there is a decline in production from these fields. However, management
expects incremental oil production from marginal fields (including D1 extension,
B193 cluster, B22 clusters, North Tapti, WO series, B46 cluster), which will help
arrest the decline in crude production. ONGC aims to raise its crude oil output to
28mn tonnes per year by FY2014. As far as gas is concerned, North Tapti, B193
and 28 cluster, B22 cluster WO series cluster, B46 cluster, cluster 7 and B series
would be adding to the companys production. ONGC aims to raise gas
production to 100mmscmd by March 2017.

Outlook and valuation

ONGC reported robust top-line and bottom-line growth during 2QFY2012 on the
back of higher realization.
Looking ahead, we expect incremental production from marginal fields to more
than offset any decline in production from the ageing fields. ONGCs subsidiary,
OVL is also expected to report a jump in volumes by FY2013 to ~12mn tonnes,
with incremental productions from Myanmar, Sakhalin-1 and Venezuela coming
on stream. Higher gas price from extant fields and mark-to-market prices from
incremental production could accrete earnings further. Significant discoveries in
the high-potential Cambay, KG basin and Mahanadi fields (still under appraisal)
could further boost valuations. Although there is an FPO overhang on the stock in
the near term, we believe increased volumes and net realization should offset these
concerns. We maintain our Buy view on the stock with a target price of `324.

Exhibit 7: Key assumptions

Particulars

FY2012E

FY2013E

Sale of crude oil (MMT)

22.9

23.5

Standalone net realisations (US$/bbl)

62.0

63.0

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 8: Angel EPS forecast vs. consensus

Angel Forecast

Bloomberg Consensus

Variation (%)

FY2012E

31.3

30.7

2.0

FY2013E

33.3

31.7

5.1

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 9: Recommendation summary

Company

CMP

TP

Reco.

Mcap

Upside

P/E (x)

P/BV (x)

EV/EBITDA (x)

RoE (%)

RoCE (%)

(`)

(`)

(` cr)

(%)

FY12E

FY13E

FY12E

FY13E

FY12E

FY13E

FY12E

RIL

880

1,060

Buy

288,001

20

12.5

11.2

1.5

1.3

6.7

5.9

14.0

13.8

11.6

12.2

ONGC

278

324

Buy

237,543

17

8.9

8.3

1.8

1.6

3.8

3.4

21.5

19.9

20.5

19.3

Cairn India

306

GAIL

424

- Neutral
499

Buy

FY13E FY12E FY13E

58,256

9.6

7.6

1.3

1.1

6.2

4.4

14.0

15.3

16.5

18.6

53,827

18

13.4

11.9

2.4

2.1

7.5

6.5

19.3

18.7

22.4

22.3

Source: Angel Research

November 4, 2011

ONGC | 2QFY2012 Result Update

Exhibit 10: One-year forward P/E

700

Share price (`)

600
500
400
300
200
100

Share price

7x

10x

13x

16x

Oct-11

Apr-11

Oct-10

Apr-10

Oct-09

Apr-09

Oct-08

Apr-08

Oct-07

Apr-07

Oct-06

Apr-06

19x

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 11: Premium/Discount in ONGC (P/E) v/s Sensex (P/E)

0
(10)

(%)

(20)
(30)
(40)
(50)

Prem/Disc to Sensex

Oct-11

Jul-11

Apr-11

Jan-11

Oct-10

Jul-10

Apr-10

Jan-10

Oct-09

Jul-09

Apr-09

Jan-09

Oct-08

Jul-08

Apr-08

Jan-08

Oct-07

Jul-07

Apr-07

(60)

Historic Avg Disc

Source: Company, Angel Research

November 4, 2011

ONGC | 2QFY2012 Result Update

Profit & Loss Statement (Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr)
Total operating income
% chg

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12E

FY13E

96,782 104,588 101,755 117,611 125,242 138,164

17.7

8.1

(2.7)

15.6

6.5

10.3

Total Expenditure

55,527

61,364

56,805

69,174

70,226

79,731

Net Raw Materials

25,070

28,975

25,339

31,251

30,140

34,220

Other Mfg costs

18,419

17,678

16,321

19,685

18,985

21,555

1,328

1,162

1,407

1,716

1,916

2,175

Other

10,710

13,549

13,738

16,523

19,185

21,782

EBITDA

41,255

43,225

44,949

48,436

55,017

58,433

14.0

4.8

4.0

7.8

13.6

6.2

Personnel

% chg
(% of Net Sales)

42.6

41.3

44.2

41.2

43.9

42.3

Depreciation& Amortisation

13,888

15,430

18,719

20,628

21,135

22,593

EBIT

27,367

27,794

26,230

27,808

33,881

35,840

% chg

13.0

1.6

(5.6)

6.0

21.8

5.8

(% of Net Sales)

28.3

26.6

25.8

23.6

27.1

25.9

894

1,774

1,102

437

600

680

4,541

5,072

5,273

6,946

7,641

8,405

Interest & other Charges

Other Income
(% of PBT)

14.6

16.3

17.3

20.2

18.7

19.3

31,014

31,093

30,401

34,316

40,922

43,565

% chg

8.6

0.3

(2.2)

12.9

19.2

6.5

Adj. related to prior period (Net)

93

(11)

(40)

(66)

PBT (reported)

30,921

31,169

30,441

34,316

40,922

43,565

Tax

10,700

11,009

10,714

11,491

13,703

14,588

34.6

35.3

35.2

33.5

33.5

33.5

20,221

20,160

19,728

22,825

27,219

28,977

2.1

9.9

7.8

3.0

9.5

9.8

Recurring PBT

Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.)

(% of PBT)
PAT (reported)
Add: Share of earnings of asso.
Less: Minority interest (MI)

351

375

332

372

444

472

PAT after MI (reported)

19,872

19,795

19,404

22,456

26,785

28,514

ADJ. PAT

19,872

19,861

19,404

22,456

26,785

28,514

% chg

November 4, 2011

FY08

8.9

(0.1)

(2.3)

15.7

19.3

6.5

(% of Net Sales)

20.5

19.0

19.1

19.1

21.4

20.6

Basic EPS (`)

23.2

23.1

22.7

26.2

31.3

33.3

Fully Diluted EPS (`)

23.2

23.1

22.7

26.2

31.3

33.3

% chg

11.8

(0.4)

(2.0)

15.7

19.3

6.5

ONGC | 2QFY2012 Result Update

Balance Sheet (Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr)

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12E

FY13E

SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity Share Capital

2,139

2,139

2,139

4,278

4,278

4,278

Preference Capital

Reserves& Surplus

75,948

90,085

Shareholders Funds

78,087

92,224 101,407 115,327 133,556 152,659

Minority Interest
Total Loans
Deferred Tax Liability
Liability for abandonment cost
Total Liabilities

1,145

1,411

99,268 111,049 129,279 148,382

1,643

2,002

2,436

2,898

944

6,559

6,267

6,291

9,427

10,862

8,738

9,223

10,291

11,153

10,355

10,355

12,932

17,145

17,459

19,850

19,850

19,850

101,846 126,562 137,067 154,623 175,624 196,625

APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Gross Block
Less: Acc. Depreciation

93,825 105,955 117,757 132,981 154,116 176,709

Net Block

55,668

63,794

75,543

94,293

98,157 100,564

Capital Work-in-Progress

14,423

24,758

25,616

27,379

28,194

29,283

Goodwill

2,578

11,404

9,539

8,993

8,993

8,993

Investments

4,482

3,480

5,159

3,356

3,356

3,356

Current Assets

47,534

50,715

50,566

59,412

77,714

96,466

Cash

25,056

22,596

22,384

28,688

46,425

64,789

Loans & Advances

7,068

13,264

12,057

11,904

11,904

11,904

Other

15,411

14,855

16,125

18,821

19,385

19,773

Current liabilities

23,513

28,239

30,198

39,605

41,586

42,833

Net Current Assets

24,022

22,476

20,369

19,807

36,128

53,633

674

651

841

796

796

796

Mis. Exp. not written off

Total Assets

November 4, 2011

149,493 169,748 193,300 227,273 252,273 277,273

101,846 126,562 137,067 154,623 175,624 196,625

ONGC | 2QFY2012 Result Update

Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr)

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12E

FY13E

Profit before tax

31,014

31,093

30,441

34,316

40,922

43,565

9,078

8,779

8,863

11,353

21,135

22,593

(180)

(264)

2,415

2,355

(473)

6,955

1,416

860

(2,903)

(3,238)

(2,300)

(125)

(7,641)

(8,405)

Depreciation
(Incr)/ Decr in Misc Exp
Change in Working Capital
Less: Other income
Direct taxes paid
Cash Flow from Operations
(Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets
(Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments
(Inc.)/ Dec. in loans and adv.
Other income
Cash Flow from Investing
Issue of Equity
Inc./(Dec.) in loans
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax)
Others
Cash Flow from Financing

28,915

28,746

(7,748) (10,519) (13,703) (14,588)

28,783

41,980

42,129

44,025

(16,814) (21,639) (21,253) (19,685) (25,815) (26,089)

(1,260)

902

(2,249)

1,951

(1)

(1,951)

532

(96)

2,078

3,365

1,868

(6,495)

7,641

8,405

(15,996) (19,323) (21,102) (24,326) (18,175) (17,684)

166

287

(598)

4,968

(304)

40

3,136

1,435

(7,822)

(8,103)

(8,078) (10,143)

(8,556)

(9,411)

(285)

(8,748)

(8,538) (11,883)

109

(1,658)

(5,420)

(7,976)

4,380

(2,460)

(592)

5,894

18,535

18,364

Opening Cash balances

20,676

25,056

22,588

21,997

27,890

46,425

Closing Cash balances

25,056

22,596

21,997

27,890

46,425

64,789

Inc./(Dec.) in Cash

November 4, 2011

(10,508) (10,244)

(8,273) (11,760)

ONGC | 2QFY2012 Result Update

Key Ratios
Y/E March

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12E

FY13E

Valuation Ratio (x)

P/E (on FDEPS)

12.0

12.0

12.2

10.6

8.9

8.3

P/CEPS

7.0

6.7

6.2

5.5

5.0

4.6

P/BV

3.0

2.6

2.3

2.1

1.8

1.6

Dividend yield (%)

2.9

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.2

3.6

EV/Sales

2.2

2.1

2.1

1.8

1.6

1.3

EV/EBITDA

5.2

4.8

4.9

4.5

3.8

3.4

EV/Total Assets

2.1

1.7

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.0

EPS (Basic)

23.2

23.1

22.7

26.2

31.3

33.3

EPS (fully diluted)

23.2

23.1

22.7

26.2

31.3

33.3

Cash EPS

Per Share Data (`)

39.5

41.2

44.6

50.4

56.0

59.7

DPS

8.0

8.0

8.3

8.5

9.0

10.0

Book Value

91

108

119

135

156

178

EBIT margin

28.3

26.6

25.8

23.6

27.1

25.9

Tax retention ratio

65.4

64.7

64.8

66.5

66.5

66.5

Asset turnover (x)

1.3

1.2

0.9

1.0

1.0

1.1

24.1

19.9

15.5

15.4

17.7

18.3

Cost of Debt (Post Tax)

Leverage (x)

24.1

19.9

15.5

15.4

17.7

18.3

ROCE (Pre-tax)

28.2

24.3

19.9

19.1

20.5

19.3

Angel ROIC (Pre-tax)

44.5

39.3

31.2

29.6

34.0

35.2

ROE

27.4

23.3

20.0

20.7

21.5

19.9

Asset Turnover (Gross Block)

0.7

0.7

0.6

0.6

0.5

0.5

Inventory / Sales (days)

25

24

27

28

29

29

Receivables (days)

22

25

26

27

27

28

Payables (days)

99

109

137

134

131

132

Working capital cycle (ex-cash) (days)

(2)

(2)

(4)

(17)

(28)

(28)

(0.4)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.3)

(0.4)

Dupont Analysis (%)

ROIC (Post-tax)

Operating ROE
Returns (%)

Turnover ratios (x)

Solvency ratios (x)

Net debt to equity

November 4, 2011

Net debt to EBITDA

(0.7)

(0.5)

(0.5)

(0.5)

(0.7)

(1.0)

Interest Coverage (EBIT/Interest)

30.6

15.7

23.8

63.6

56.5

52.7

10

ONGC | 2QFY2012 Result Update

Research Team Tel: 022 3935 7800

E-mail: research@angelbroking.com

Website: www.angelbroking.com

DISCLAIMER
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment
decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make
such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies
referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and
risks of such an investment.
Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make
investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this
document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within.
Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and
trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's
fundamentals.
The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable
sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this
document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way
responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report.
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nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While
Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory,
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connection with the use of this information.
Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please
refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and
its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.

Disclosure of Interest Statement

ONGC

1. Analyst ownership of the stock

2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock
4. Broking relationship with company covered

No
No
No
No

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.

Ratings (Returns) :

November 4, 2011

Buy (> 15%)

Reduce (-5% to 15%)

Accumulate (5% to 15%)

Sell (< -15%)

Neutral (-5 to 5%)

11