Professional Documents
Culture Documents
November 8, 2011
Monnet Ispat
Performance highlights
BUY
CMP Target Price
% chg (yoy)
27.1 14.1 (298)bp 17.3
`443 `528
12 Months
Particulars (` cr) Net sales EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) Net profit
2QFY12
459 119 26.1 77
2QFY11
361 105 29.0 66
1QFY12
427 116 28.9 73
% chg (qoq)
7.3 2.8 (280)bp 5.2
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
Robust top-line performance: For 2QFY2012, Monnet Ispat (MIL) reported net sales growth of 27.1% yoy to `459cr. Growth was mainly driven by the 30.8% increase in sponge iron realization to `21,002/tonne and the 43.7% yoy increase in structural steel realization to `32,176/tonne. Net realization on power sales dipped by 32.1% yoy to `2.9/unit during the quarter. EBITDA grew by 14.1% yoy: Raw-material cost as a percentage of sales increased to 59.8% in 2QFY2012 compared to 56.1% in 2QFY2011. Hence, EBITDA increased by only 14.1% yoy to `119cr, while EBITDA margin contracted by 298bp yoy to 26.1%. Net profit grew by 17.3% yoy to `77cr during the quarter. Progress on captive coal blocks satisfactory: MIL had received stage-II of forest clearance for its Utkal mine (reserves of 117mn tonnes) during 2QFY2012. The company will now sign the mining lease for Utkal coal block since it has received all approvals. The company expects to sign the mining lease for Mandakini coal block in 2HFY2013. The company reiterated that both the coal blocks would be ready for production before the completion of the power plant. Outlook and valuation: MIL is on the verge of a massive expansion in its steel business. The long-term stock performance will be determined by the timely expansion of the 1.5mtpa steel plant and unlocking of value in Monnet Power, which is implementing the 1,050MW power project. Although there could be some delays in the commencement of these projects, most of these projects would be backed by captive resources, thus ensuring robust profitability. Hence, we recommend Buy on the stock with a target price of `528. Key financials (Standalone)
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales % chg Adj. net profit % chg EPS (`) EBITDA margin (%) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 49.4 4.4 32.1 14.1
3m 3.4
1yr (15.7)
3yr 73.6
FY2010
FY2011
FY2012E
FY2013E
1,481 (4.4) 288 24.1 44.7 31.3 9.9 1.4 18.2 13.0 2.1 6.8
1,574 6.3 285 (0.9) 44.3 29.6 10.0 1.4 15.1 9.6 2.7 9.2
1,973 25.4 304 6.8 47.3 26.3 9.4 1.2 13.7 8.0 2.4 9.3
2,960 50.0 425 39.7 63.5 29.5 7.0 1.0 16.7 11.0 1.9 6.3 Bhavesh Chauhan
Tel: 022- 39357800 Ext: 6821 bhaveshu.chauhan@angelbroking.com
2QFY12 459 274 59.8 14 3.1 21 4.5 30 6.6 339 73.9 119 26.1 0 119 26.1 12 19 7 0 96 20.9 19 19.7 77
2QFY11 361 202 56.1 10 2.7 18 4.9 26 7.2 256 71.0 105 29.0 0 105 29.0 12 18 7 0 82 22.7 16 19.9 66
yoy (%) 27.1 35.4 43.0 16.8 16.5 32.5 14.1 14.1 (2.4) 1.4 (11.2) 17.1 16.1 17.3
1QFY12 427 248 58.0 13 3.1 21 5.0 28 6.6 311 72.8 116 27.2 0 116 27.2 13 19 11 0 96 22.4 23 23.5 73
qoq (%) 7.3 10.5 5.8 (3.1) 7.0 9.1 2.8 2.8 (11.8) 0.3 (40.6) 0.2 (16.1) 5.2
19,010 2,284.9
November 8, 2011
(`cr)
(%)
5 0 (5) (10)
64 60 56
(%)
10
(`cr)
68
Investment rationale
Steel expansion of 1.5mn tonnes: MIL is setting up a 1.5mn steel plant through the BF-EAF route. Total capex for the project is pegged at `3,000cr. The plant is expected to begin progressive commissioning in late FY2012. However, full benefits of these facilities would be witnessed in FY2014. Significant value unlocking lies ahead in Monnet Power: MIL is setting up a 1,050MW (2x525) power plant through Monnet Power. The plant is being set up at a cost of `5,000cr, with equity contribution of `1,200cr and the balance being funded through debt. MIL has diluted a 12.5% stake to Blackstone for a consideration of `275cr, thus valuing the total equity stake at `2,200cr. We expect the plant to be operational in FY2014. With captive coal blocks backing this project, we expect robust profitability from the power business.
November 8, 2011
FY13E
2,960 872 29.5 500 391 13.2
FY13E
2,960 872 29.5 544 425 14.4
FY13E
0.0 0.0 0bp 5.0 5.0 69bp
Angel forecast
47.3 63.5
Bloomberg consensus
46.1 58.3
Variation (%)
2.6 8.8
November 8, 2011
Oct-05
Oct-06
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
2x
5x
8x
11x
14x
(`)
5x
10x
15x
20x
(`)
5x
10x
15x
20x
November 8, 2011
Oct-11
190 61 528
56 12 34 19
137 Accum.
November 8, 2011
2,128 155 1,973 1,973 25.4 1,453 1,084 126 84 160 519 11.6 26.3 75 444 13.3 22.5 79 25 6.3 389 6.8 389 85 21.8 304 304 304 6.8 15.4 47.3 47.3 6.8
3,193 233 2,960 2,960 50.0 2,088 1,537 189 126 237 872 67.9 29.5 118 755 69.9 25.5 238 27 5.0 1.0 544 39.7 544 119 21.8 425 425 425 39.7 14.4 66.1 63.5 34.2
November 8, 2011
64 2,026 2,090 2,672 141 4,903 1,477 383 1,094 1,513 550 2,092 688 853 550 345 1,747 4,903
64 2,293 2,357 3,672 141 6,170 3,077 459 2,618 713 550 2,683 1,159 853 670 394 2,289 6,170
64 2,680 2,744 4,672 141 7,558 4,377 576 3,800 413 550 3,289 1,465 853 970 494 2,794 7,558
November 8, 2011
362 74 (348) (27) 86 (25) (831) (5) 22 (814) 10 1,177 (135.3) 1,322 483 205 688
544 118 (200) 119 343 1,000 38 962 306 1,159 1,465
(800) (1,000)
(800) (1,000)
November 8, 2011
10
Key ratios
Y/E March Valuation ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV/Total assets Per share data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book value DuPont analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio (%) Asset turnover (x) RoIC (Post-tax) Cost of debt (post tax) Leverage (x) Operating RoE Returns (%) RoCE (Pre-tax) Angel RoIC (pre-tax) RoE Turnover ratios (x) Asset turnover (gross block) Inventory (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cycle (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest coverage FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E
15.1 10.1 2.0 1.1 2.3 10.8 1.2 43.0 29.4 43.9 5.0 226.8 17.9 75.6 0.7 9.6 1.2 0.5 14.2 10.6 15.8 20.0 1.1 145 33 43 58 0.5 2.3 12.7
9.7 7.1 1.7 1.1 1.9 8.0 1.1 47.4 45.4 61.9 5.0 268.2 20.0 79.7 0.7 11.2 4.6 0.7 15.7 12.4 16.2 18.2 1.2 80 26 50 49 0.7 2.3 4.4
9.9 6.7 1.4 1.1 2.1 6.8 1.0 56.1 44.7 65.9 5.0 307.1 26.5 81.8 0.5 11.5 4.3 0.4 14.8 13.0 17.3 18.2 1.1 112 32 60 49 0.4 1.6 5.3
10.0 7.9 1.4 1.1 2.7 9.2 0.9 48.0 44.3 55.7 5.0 324.8 24.9 78.2 0.4 8.4 1.9 0.7 12.9 9.6 15.5 15.1 1.1 146 44 81 68 0.7 3.1 7.9
9.4 7.5 1.2 1.1 2.4 9.3 0.8 47.3 47.3 59.0 5.0 366.2 22.5 78.2 0.4 7.5 2.0 0.8 12.2 8.0 12.7 13.7 0.9 146 44 81 73 0.8 3.8 5.6
7.0 5.2 1.0 1.1 1.9 6.3 0.7 66.1 63.5 84.4 5.0 426.4 25.5 78.2 0.5 10.6 4.5 1.0 16.6 11.0 15.1 16.7 0.8 146 44 81 65 1.0 3.0 3.2
November 8, 2011
11
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
DISCLAIMER
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.
Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Monnet Ispat No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
November 8, 2011
12