Key findings from a statewide telephone survey conducted in New Hampshire. The survey was completed OCTOBER 29-31, 2011. A strong majority of voters think the country is on the wrong track.
Key findings from a statewide telephone survey conducted in New Hampshire. The survey was completed OCTOBER 29-31, 2011. A strong majority of voters think the country is on the wrong track.
Key findings from a statewide telephone survey conducted in New Hampshire. The survey was completed OCTOBER 29-31, 2011. A strong majority of voters think the country is on the wrong track.
Key findings from a statewide survey of 500 likely voters
with an oversample of 518 likely GOP primary voters
in New Hampshire conducted October 29-31, 2011. FREDERICKpolls Project #11565 Public Opinion Strategies and F rederick Polls are pleased to present the key findings of a statewide telephone survey conducted in New Hampshi re. The survey was completed October 29-31, 2011 among 500 li kely voters with a margin of er ror of +4.38% and an oversample of 518 li kely GOP primary voters with a margin of er ror of +4.30%.
Glen Bolger and Keith F rederick were the principal researchers on this proj ect. Jim Hobart was the proj ect director, and Claire O`Brien provided analytical support. 4 NEW HAMPSHIRE STATEWIDE ~ OCTOBER 29-31, 2011 Right Di rection 16% Wrong Track 77% No Opinion 5% Refused 2%* A strong majority of voters think the country is on the wrong track. GOP primary voters are especially pessimistic. General Electorate GOP Primary Electorate National Mood *Denotes Rounding Right Di rection 5% Wrong Track 92% No Opinion 2% Refused 1% 5 NEW HAMPSHIRE STATEWIDE ~ OCTOBER 29-31, 2011 Strongly Approve 18% Somewhat Approve 24% Somewhat Disapprove 12% Strongly Disapprove 42% Don't Know 2% Refused 2% President Obama`s approval rating is upside-down overall. General Electorate GOP Primary Electorate Obama Approval Strongly Approve 3% Somewhat Approve 8% Somewhat Disapprove 13% Strongly Disapprove 73% Don't Know 2% Refused 1% Total Approve: 42% Total Disapprove: 54% Total Approve: 11% Total Disapprove: 86% 6 NEW HAMPSHIRE STATEWIDE ~ OCTOBER 29-31, 2011 Approval of the president follows party lines, with I ndependents slightly more disapproving than approving. Obama Approval by Party (General Electorate) 8% 40% 80% 90% 54% 15% GOP (30%) I nd/ Lean (38%) Dem (29%) Total Approve Total Disapprove +65% -14% -82% 7 NEW HAMPSHIRE STATEWIDE ~ OCTOBER 29-31, 2011 Strongly Approve 1% Somewhat Approve 13% Somewhat Disapprove 25% Strongly Disapprove 55% Don't Know 5% Refused 1% A strong majority of voters disapprove of Congress. General Electorate GOP Primary Electorate Congressional Approval *Denotes Rounding Strongly Approve 1% Somewhat Approve 14% Somewhat Disapprove 32% Strongly Disapprove 46% Don't Know 4% Refused 3%* Total Approve: 14% Total Disapprove: 80% Total Approve: 16%* Total Disapprove: 79%* 8 NEW HAMPSHIRE STATEWIDE ~ OCTOBER 29-31, 2011 Strongly Approve 22% Somewhat Approve 28% Somewhat Disapprove 14% Strongly Disapprove 22% Don't Know 13% Refused 1% Senators Shaheen and Ayotte have solid approval ratings. Jeanne Shaheen Approval Kelly Ayotte Approval General Electorate *Denotes Rounding Strongly Approve 21% Somewhat Approve 30% Somewhat Disapprove 13% Strongly Disapprove 17% Don't Know 18% Refused 1% Total Approve: 50% Total Disapprove: 36% Total Approve: 50%* Total Disapprove: 30% 9 NEW HAMPSHIRE STATEWIDE ~ OCTOBER 29-31, 2011 Approval of the senators follows party lines. Ayotte has good ratings with I ndependent voters. By Party (General Electorate) 30% 44% 80% 61% 37% 7% GOP (30%) I nd/ Lean (38%) Dem (29%) Total Approve Total Disapprove +73% +7% -31% 73% 49% 29% 13% 28% 49% GOP (30%) I nd/ Lean (38%) Dem (29%) Total Approve Total Disapprove Jeanne Shaheen Approval Kelly Ayotte Approval -20% +21% +60% 11 NEW HAMPSHIRE STATEWIDE ~ OCTOBER 29-31, 2011 35% 47% 35% 51% 51% 52% 63% 67% 75% 73% General Electorate GOP Primary Electorate I mproving education. Having America become more energy independent by producing more of the energy we use here at home. Making health care more affordable. Creating jobs. 9.4 9.5 9.1 9.1 8.6 8.7 8.3 7.5 Mean: Issue Importance Ranked by % 10s Voters are most concerned about getting the economy moving again and creating jobs. Producing more U.S. energy is also important. Getting the economy moving again. 8.3 7.7 12 NEW HAMPSHIRE STATEWIDE ~ OCTOBER 29-31, 2011 Voters across party lines rank America becoming more energy independent as a very important issue. Issue Rating by Party (General Electorate) "Having America become more energy independent by producing more of the energy we use here at home." 81% 76% 78% 53% 49% 56% GOP (30%) I nd/ Lean (38%) Dem (29%) 8-10 10 13 NEW HAMPSHIRE STATEWIDE ~ OCTOBER 29-31, 2011 A Great Deal 27% A Fai r Amount 49% Only a Little 20% Not at All 4% A significant majority of voters are wor ried about the affordability of energy. General Electorate GOP Primary Electorate "How much do you personally worry about the affordability of energy?" Total Great Deal/ Fai r Amount: 76% Total A Little/Not At All : 24% Total Great Deal/ Fai r Amount: 77% Total A Little/Not At All : 23% A Great Deal 30% A Fai r Amount 47% Only a Little 19% Not at All 4% 14 NEW HAMPSHIRE STATEWIDE ~ OCTOBER 29-31, 2011 More Than Today 67% Less Than Today 28% Don't Know 5% The vast majority of voters think America will need more oil and natural gas in the future than today. General Electorate GOP Primary Electorate "And, thinking ahead to the year 23, how much oil and natural gas do you think America will need? Do you think America will need more than today or less than today?" *Denotes Rounding More Than Today 78% Less Than Today 19% Don't Know 3%* 15 NEW HAMPSHIRE STATEWIDE ~ OCTOBER 29-31, 2011 Voters across all age groups think America will need more oil and natural gas in the future. By Age (General Electorate) 62% 65% 63% 66% 76% 37% 29% 33% 27% 18% 18-34 (12%) 35-44 (26%) 45-54 (19%) 55-64 (23%) 65+ (19%) More Than Today Less Than Today +58% +36% +25% +30% +39% 16 NEW HAMPSHIRE STATEWIDE ~ OCTOBER 29-31, 2011 GOP primary voters regardless of ideology believe that we will need more oil and natural gas resources in the future. By Ideology (GOP Primary Electorate) 81% 79% 73% 14% 17% 24% Very Conservative (31%) Somewhat Conservative (33%) Moderate/ Liberal (34%) More Than Today Less Than Today +49% +62% +67% 17 NEW HAMPSHIRE STATEWIDE ~ OCTOBER 29-31, 2011 Strongly Favor 44% Somewhat Favor 29% Somewhat Oppose 11% Strongly Oppose 8% Don't Know 7% Refused 1%* A substantial majority of voters favor increased access to domestic oil resources. General Electorate GOP Primary Electorate *Denotes Rounding "And, do you favor or oppose increased access to domestic oil and natural gas resources?" Strongly Favor 67% Somewhat Favor 22% Somewhat Oppose 3% Strongly Oppose 4% Don't Know 4% Total Favor: 74%* Total Oppose: 19% Total Favor: 88%* Total Oppose: 7% 18 NEW HAMPSHIRE STATEWIDE ~ OCTOBER 29-31, 2011 Majorities in all parties are in favor of increased access to domestic oil and natural gas resources. By Party (General Electorate) 86% 76% 57% 9% 15% 35% GOP (30%) I nd/ Lean (38%) Dem (29%) Total Favor Total Oppose +22% +61% +77% 19 NEW HAMPSHIRE STATEWIDE ~ OCTOBER 29-31, 2011 North (14%) Central (28%) South (58%) General Election Primary Favor: 66% 81% Oppose: 22% 10% General Election Primary Favor: 78% 92% Oppose: 16% 5% General Election Primary Favor: 76% 91% Oppose: 19% 6% I ncreased access to domestic oil/gas resources is favored throughout the state. By Region 20 NEW HAMPSHIRE STATEWIDE ~ OCTOBER 29-31, 2011 GOP primary voters across the ideological spectrum are st rongly in favor of increased access to domestic resources. By Ideology (GOP Primary Electorate) 90% 92% 84% 7% 5% 10% Very Conservative (31%) Somewhat Conservative (33%) Moderate/ Liberal (34%) Total Favor Total Oppose +74% +87% +83% 21 NEW HAMPSHIRE STATEWIDE ~ OCTOBER 29-31, 2011 55% 6% 52% 11% 45% 11% 45% 15% 29% 9% 85% 12%* 79%* 19%* 76% 20% 66% 29% 67% 20% Strongly Agree Total Agree Strongly Disagree Total Disagree Messages about job creation, increased security and reduced costs resonate with voters. I ncreased access to oil and natural gas resources here in North America would lead to more American jobs. Expanding access to domestic oil and natural gas resources will help increase the country`s energy security because we will be able to rely on North America`s resources. Expanding access to North America`s oil and natural gas resources could reduce the cost to consumers for items such as gasoline, diesel fuel, home heating oil and natural gas. Some in Washington are delaying the development of domestic oil and natural gas reserves every chance they get. These delays may mean an even tighter supply of oil in the future, potentially hurting the economy and leading to higher energy costs for consumers. Ranked by % Strongly Agree (General Electorate) When the federal government expands access to domestic sources of oil and natural gas, they increase the amount of revenue the government treasury receives because these additional oil and natural gas supplies generate lease payments, royalty fees and other sources of government revenue. *Denotes Rounding 22 NEW HAMPSHIRE STATEWIDE ~ OCTOBER 29-31, 2011 Across party lines, a strong majority of voters believe that increased use of domestic oil resources will lead to more American jobs. I ncreased access to oil and natural gas resources here in North America would lead to more American jobs. By Party (General Electorate) 93% 86% 77% 5% 12% 20% GOP (30%) I nd/ Lean (38%) Dem (29%) Total Agree Total Disagree +57% +74% +88% 23 NEW HAMPSHIRE STATEWIDE ~ OCTOBER 29-31, 2011 73% 3% 72% 5% 61% 4% 59% 6% 42% 4% 92%* 5% 91% 8% 86%* 11% 80% 15% 80% 10%* Strongly Agree Total Agree Strongly Disagree Total Disagree GOP primary voters respond strongly to all of these messages. I ncreased access to oil and natural gas resources here in North America would lead to more American jobs. Expanding access to domestic oil and natural gas resources will help increase the country`s energy security because we will be able to rely on North America`s resources. Expanding access to North America`s oil and natural gas resources could reduce the cost to consumers for items such as gasoline, diesel fuel, home heating oil and natural gas. Some in Washington are delaying the development of domestic oil and natural gas reserves every chance they get. These delays may mean an even tighter supply of oil in the future, potentially hurting the economy and leading to higher energy costs for consumers. Ranked by % Strongly Agree (GOP Primary Electorate) When the federal government expands access to domestic sources of oil and natural gas, they increase the amount of revenue the government treasury receives because these additional oil and natural gas supplies generate lease payments, royalty fees and other sources of government revenue. *Denotes Rounding 25 WASHINGTON STATEWIDE POLICY BENCHMARK ~ SEPTEMBER 27-29, 2011 T HE BOT TOM LI NE
9 Both general election and Republican primary election voters are concerned about America becoming more energy independent and also about the affordability of energy.
9 Voters overwhelmingly believe that the country will need more oil and natural gas in the future than it needs today.
9 Both general election and primary voters strongly support increased access to domestic and natural gas resources. Strong majorities of Republicans, Independents, and Democrats all agree.
9 New Hampshire voters strongly agree that increased access to oil and natural gas resources would lead to more American jobs and would also increase the country`s energy security.
9 New Hampshire voters believe that some in Washington are delaying development of domestic oil and natural gas, which could lead to higher energy costs. They also believe that expanding domestic access could decrease costs to consumers.
27 NEW HAMPSHIRE STATEWIDE ~ OCTOBER 29-31, 2011 Tea Party primary voters rate America becoming more energy independent highly. Issue Rating by Tea Party (GOP Primary Electorate) "Having America become more energy independent by producing more of the energy we use here at home." 86% 77% 70% 80% 66% 44% 37% 49% Strongly Favor (29%) Somewhat Favor (27%) Total Unfavorable (14%) DK/No Opinion (29%) 8-10 10 28 NEW HAMPSHIRE STATEWIDE ~ OCTOBER 29-31, 2011 Voters of both genders believe America will need more oil and natural gas in the future than it does today. By Gender 66% 68% 30% 26% Men (48%) Women (52%) More Than Today Less Than Today +42% +36% General Electorate GOP Primary Electorate +60% +58% "And, thinking ahead to the year 23, how much oil and natural gas do you think America will need? Do you think America will need more than today or less than today?" 78% 77% 20% 17% Men (48%) Women (52%) More Than Today Less Than Today 29 NEW HAMPSHIRE STATEWIDE ~ OCTOBER 29-31, 2011 Both genders favor increased use of domestic resources. By Gender 81% 67% 15% 23% Men (48%) Women (52%) Total Favor Total Oppose +44% +66% General Electorate GOP Primary Electorate +73% +88% "And, do you favor or oppose increased access to domestic oil and natural gas resources?" 93% 83% 5% 10% Men (48%) Women (52%) Total Favor Total Oppose 30 NEW HAMPSHIRE STATEWIDE ~ OCTOBER 29-31, 2011 Favorability toward increased access to domestic resources is high among voters of all income levels. By I ncome 75% 71% 74% 19% 21% 19% Under $40K (21%) $40-80K (29%) $80K+ (39%) Total Favor Total Oppose +50% +56% General Electorate GOP Primary Electorate +78% +82% "And, do you favor or oppose increased access to domestic oil and natural gas resources?" +55% 87% 88% 91% 9% 6% 7% Under $40K (21%) $40-80K (29%) $80K+ (39%) Total Favor Total Oppose +84% 31 NEW HAMPSHIRE STATEWIDE ~ OCTOBER 29-31, 2011 Primary voters who favor the Tea Party are almost unanimous in thei r favorability toward using domestic oil resources. 95% 95% 64% 87% 3% 3% 27% 6% Strongly Favor (29%) Somewhat Favor (27%) Total Unfavorable (14%) DK/No Opinion (29%) Total Favor Total Oppose By Tea Party (GOP Primary Electorate) +92% +37% +92% +81% Email: glen@pos.org Twitter: @posglen Blog: pos.org/insights/tqia-blog FREDERICKpolls