Assignment for the module “Suitability analysis for aquaculture”

Cadiz 2006

Assignments are to be delivered electronically (MS Word formatted) to Rune Rosland

(rune.rosland@bio.uib.no), with a copy to Carmen Lopez at the Erasmus Mundus
Secretary in Cadiz. Deadline is 8th of November 2006. Assignments delivered after
deadline will be disqualified (i.e. Fail).

Answer all the tasks from A-D. You may preferable give short and concise answers in
A-C, while task D opens for more discussion.

Task A: Try to formulate a short definition of mathematical models based on the

content and examples presented in this module.
Answer;

Model yields a three box system of the form

Exchange and mixing

The model ecosystem is considered in the context of a box model. All ecological
interactions occur within a finite volume, or box. Components are assumed to be
distributed homogeneously within a box, and spatial gradients occur between boxes.
Each of the pelagic components of the ecosystem is exchanged with its corresponding
population in adjacent areas according to the motion of the fluid in which they are
embedded. The horizontal exchange of material is given by

˙X= K(X∞ − X)

where ˙X = dX/dt. Here, X represents the concentration the pelagic ecosystem

components, i.e. one of P,Z, N, or D. The corresponding value in the adjacent
box is X∞. The parameter K is an exchange coefficient that scales the concentration
difference between the regions. The time evolution of temperature can be modeled by
transforming into a heat equation as follows

˙X1 = h{[X1,B1] ′} + ν1 + K∞(X∞ − X1)−K12(X1 − X2) − K13(X1 − X3)

˙X1 = h{[X1,B1] ′} + ν1 + 1.3 d-1 (X∞ − X1)− 0.4 d-1 (X1 − X2) − 0.5 d-1(X1 − X3)

˙X2 = h{[X2,B2] ′} + ν2 + K12(X1 − X2)

˙X2 = h{[X2,B2] ′} + ν2 + 0.4 d-1(X1 − X2)

˙X3 =h{[X3,B3] ′}+ν3 +K13(X1 −X3)

˙X3 =h{[X3,B3] ′}+ν3 +0.5 d-1(X1 −X3)

K∞ represents mixing between the ocean and box 1; = 1.3 d-1

K12 represents mixing between box 1 and box 2; = 0.4 d-1
K13 represents mixing between boxes 1 and 3. = 0.5 d-1

Box models are used mainly for two purposes: for studying the complex of a coupled
process and for studying the sensitivity of a biological system. The box model is
usually a relatively simple model of the ecosystem. It is often developed within a
project for a special region. Only a few components are involved and the computation
is limited to only a few parameters.

Task B: Point at some of the benefits of using mathematical models in the study and
management of ecosystems?
Answer;
The use of appropriate mathematical models can help describe or predict
ecological processes and response to natural driving variables or anthropogenic
pressures. Models can guide management and policies and help in the design of
monitoring programmes and interpretation of the results such programmes generate.
Mathematical models can be employed to quantify and predict Impacts. Models can
fill gaps in empirical data.
Models can:
• Help understand complex processes operating within the catchments;
• Fill gaps in monitoring data;
• Identify sources of pollution;
• Predict system response to change; and
• Evaluate management alternatives.
Modelling processes
• Model require to be scaled appropriately
• Model validation
• Credibility of regulation using models

Models should have simplicity and clarity; be fit for purpose; be open to scrutiny; be
accessible, user-friendly and be used with caution

Task C: Why is it so important to be aware of the assumptions underlying a model?

Answer;
 To achieve project’s purpose directly and correctly and prevent overlook the
hidden cause of problems, the assumption of the model should be planned well.
Moreover, assumptions underlying can affect model method, planning and monitoring
etc.

Requires careful consideration about;

 Objectives and justification
 Model assumptions and limitations
 Use of data
o Input data for initialisation and forcing of model
o Data or model calibration and validation (independent data sets)
 Quality assurance and documentation
o Verification (formal errors)
o Validation (does the model actually give an adequate representation of
the real world system)
o Sensitivity analysis (where is the model working good and where is it
working badly, which factors have a strong impact on model
performance and which have not)
For example:
 Interaction diagram for the complex ecosystem

 Plankton system, this may cause eutrophication problem, the main controls of
phytoplankton growth due to light, nutrients and physics. How the marine
ecosystem of the interesting area and how concentrations and fluxes of
biologically important elements (carbon (C), nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P),
silicon (Si), oxygen (O)) vary in space and time, throughout the shelf and over
periods of years, in response to physical forcing.
 Food web, One of the most significant problems is the over enrichment of
coastal waters with nutrients. Introduction of excess nitrogen and phosphorus
to the area may lead to eutrophication, which imbalance organic supply to the
marine ecosystem. One of the most negative effects of eutrophication
encompasses oxygen deficiency in bottom waters followed by mass mortality
of fish and benthic organisms.
 Sensitive data / sensitive analysis,
 Interaction

Task D: After validating the ECOHAM model application to the Vietnam coast we
discover quite a mismatch between modeled data and observations. Should we then
immediately conclude that the model has been falsified, or could there be other factors
causing the divergence between observed and modeled values? Discuss!
Answer;

Short Definition;
ECOHAM (Ecological North Sea Model, Hamburg)
ECOHAM is a three-dimensional model for estimating the annual primary production
in the North Sea (Moll, 1995; Moll, 1997b; Moll, 1998). It is a spatial extension of the
one-dimensional water column model by Radach and Moll (1993).
ECOHAM simulates phytoplankton biomass, phosphate concentration and
sedimented detritus, the last at the bottom of the sea only, aiming at the estimation of
primary production during the annual cycle. Pelagic detritus and dissolved organic
phosphorus are not prognostic variables, but enter the model by a simple
parameterisation of the “small food web”. Also the benthic regeneration of phosphate
is a much simplified parameterisation of the complicated processes at and in the
bottom. The simple structure is, however, sufficiently complex to estimate the annual
cycle of primary production in the North Sea as well as more complicated
representations like NORWECOM, ERSEM or POL3dERSEM.

HAMSOM (The Hamburg Shelf Ocean Model)

HAMSOM(hydrodynamic model) is a three dimensional, finite difference, semi-
implicit model. The model is described in detail in Backhaus et al. (1987) and
Stronach et al. (1993). HAMSOM was designed with the intention to allow
simulations of both oceanic and coastal and shelf sea dynamics. It is already being in
use as a community model.

Validation;
“Validation means comparing the model with independent data in order to test
its goodness of fit with respect to the real system (OSPAR et al., 1998).”
 Discussion term

According to above definitions, ECOHAM and HAMSOM are used as the

estimated tools of primary production in the North Sea. In case it is implemented in
Vietnam, where there may occur many different characteristics, the implementation
and observation should be considered under the factors list below to avoid mistaken
observation.
• Tropical climate: influence to Phosphate and chlorophyll blooming values.
• Seasons: The model can change its function according to the change in
seasons. For example, in summer the temperature and the climate factors,
including water current, can lead to the increase in Phosphate and Nitrate
which will consequently help to increase the phyto - plankton production.

• Flow rate of freshwater supply to the area: supplement Nutrients to bay from
freshwater (Asia’s watershed is much larger or vast than in Europe.)
• and comparing independent data with standard (OSPAR): The standard data
from European table may not be compared to a larger extend. OSPAR could be
more applicable in Europe than in Asia because of various climate factors.

Although the model has to adapt for implementing, my opinion is that it could
probably be compatible as long as implementing is appropriately adapted for
Vietnam’s characteristics.