10. Discuss the appeal, and the dangers of attempting to predict the future.

Oh, crystal ball, crystal ball/ save us all, tell me life is beautiful. Taken from the lines of a song Crystal Ball by acclaimed Irish (?) band Keane, this line speaks of the desire of Man to predict the future clearly and see something rosy in the times beyond the present. Predicting the future is simply, attempting to find out what is going to happen in the future before it actually happens, and has always been an obsession of humankind since ages past as can be seen by the multitudes of tarot, crystal ball and horoscope users that attempt to use such devices to see into the future. Indeed, attempting to predict the future can bring us benefits, and it is these benefits that make the pursuit of such an endeavor so appealing to us. However, attempting to predict the future also has its dangers and hence in predicting the future there must be an educated weightage and analysis of the good it can bring us against the havoc it may wreak on humanity before we decide whether to further our attempts to predict the future. Prediction of the future can be used by Mankind as a pre-emptive warning call, like a loud bugle call from the future to watch out. For example, with the advancement of technology, we have developed disaster warning systems that measure certain changes in the natural environment such as seismic and tectonic movements, that enable us to predict not just where a natural disaster may occur but also its magnitude. Hurricane Irene, which was poised to ravage the East Coast of the United States of America, had her path of destruction mapped out by researchers in the (?) Weather and Meteorological Bureau in America, and as a result, countless American citizens were able to be evacuated from populous cities such as New York before the advent of the disaster, managing to avert the loss of lives and disruption of economic activity that would have prevailed if the disaster went undetected. Similarly in Japan, her earthquake early detection system as well as volcano monitoring has helped to save countless lives from being lost in the event of a natural disaster. The aversion of such a disaster made possible by predicting the future is of great benefit, and hence appeal, to humankind because it helps us avoid the otherwise deleterious consequences that would have befallen us if the disasters had struck unnoticed. An attempt to predict future trends also can lead to a greater ability to plan, with reference to governance on the national level. For instance the meteoric rise of Singapore from a backward country to an economic power in the space of a few decades can be attributed partly to the use of future prediction her government accurately predicted trends in the world economy, for example the rise of demand for biopharmaceuticals in the global market. By the time it occurred, Singapore had already established her comparative advantage in that sector and hence was able to reap great gains from the seeds she had sown earlier by becoming a hub for the industry. Singapore continually looks to the future in the structuring of her economy, taking steps to develop renewable energy and water as well as aerospace technology at the moment. The prediction of the future can help the governments of countries plan for the future and achieve growth and stability on a national level, which is beneficial to the country and her people. Thus, an attempt to predict the future can be appealing because it helps greatly

in the planning for the future, which invariably brings great benefits to those who are able to take forward steps ahead of everyone else. The future can be likened to the murky depths of a pool of water, which becomes clearer to the eyes of Man as we predict the future. Definitely, with the prediction of the future, we will be able to take clear steps and make informed decisions rather than living in insecurity. The reason why soothsayers existed in the past and fortune-tellers exist now is because of their ability (ersatz or not) to predict the future and provide a view through the smoke of what is to come. Human nature seeks security in all of our actions we seek to secure our positions in life and society. This can be said to be an offshoot of the instinct to survive that is common to all living beings, that we seek the security of our lives in whatever we do, for example how some animals and Man tend to group together to ensure survival, and how we tend to gravitate towards places that are able to satisfy our basic needs of food and water. Sentient Man is one step ahead due to our keen awareness of our present situation and our understanding of the concept of time and hence the future. And precisely because we do not know what is yet to come but we know it will come, we are thrown into insecurity because we lack such knowledge. Perhaps the greatest appeal of the prediction of future is this; that it is able to satisfy the desire of Man to feel secure and grounded, and to eliminate uncertainty from his life and hence provide us all with the security that we seek. That having been said, despite the appeals and benefits it holds for Mankind, the prediction of the future also holds grave dangers for us. As uncertain as the events of the future are, are our attempts to decode what will happen in any point of time beyond the present. For instance, the inaccurate prediction of the direction the winds were blowing led Japanese officials to evacuate the people of Fukushima northwards to avoid the radiation after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear energy plant experienced a devastating meltdown following the highmagnitude earthquake that destroyed its structural integrity. Instead of blowing southbound as predicted, the winds blew northbound, carrying in the air radioactive particles that, when people are exposed to them, could lead to debilitating consequences such as genetic mutations, cancer, and radiation sickness that could not only damage the present generation of people but also their children, due to radiation wreaking damage on their gametic cells. This led to elaborate cover-ups by the Japanese officials that when later exposed, led to uproar and unrest over the potential damage that may already have been done due to the unsafe levels of radiation they were exposed to, and the eventual resignation of premier Naoto Kan and his cabinet over their failure to handle things properly. The prediction of the future is as unsure as the future itself, and if attempted in a wrong fashion, could potentially to lead to a worse outcome than what could have happened in the event that the prediction was not made, and has the potential to endanger humanity. Also, the prediction of the future may lead to complacency taking root in the mentality of humans, which is dangerous and potentially leads to the downfall of humanity. In Oedipus Rex by Sophocles, the eponymous king, believing that the prophecy that he would commit incest with his mother and kill his father was avoided by his separation from them at birth, was lax in his actions and

eventually ended up committing both sins, fathering two daughters with his mother. In Shakespeares Macbeth, the evil usurper of the throne believed he would not be killed by any man of woman born, as said in the witches predicions, and falsely believed himself to be immortal but eventually was beheaded by Duncan who was not of woman born as he was untimely ripped from his mothers womb. The actions of characters in literature, which is a mirror reflection of humanity seeking to expose our flaws, shows exactly how the prediction of the future can lead to ones downfall by providing a false sense of security. The fatal flaw of humankind is his hubris, or pride, and this can be intensified by the false sense of security that is provided by such a prediction. Hence, as the prediction of the future may satisfy the innate desire to have security in a false way and hence create complacency that will lead to the failure of Man to act appropriately to circumvent disaster, it is extremely dangerous to us. It may be that the true appeal of the prediction of future lies in the human idea of there being a predetermined sequence of events fate, karma, and its numerous other permutations. The Chaos Theory states that future behavior is completely predetermined by initial conditions with absolutely no random events involved, and our belief in such a theory, whether we know it by the proper name or not, stems from the belief in fate, which also explains why religion is such a strong anchoring belief for many across the world. It gives us the idea that everything that will happen in the future has already been set out for us in a grand plan, leading to another innate desire of humankind other than security that is satisfied by the prediction of the future, which is curiosity, or the desire to have knowledge. Whether they are or not, we will never have conclusive proof of, but because we already believe it to be so, it only intensifies the drive to seek it out. The prediction of the future will never lose its appeal to Mankind as it satisfies our innate desires of security and curiosity. It can at many times be a boon, but at others be a bane for us. Truthfully, as can be seen from the examples from above, the prediction of the future should be tempered with a sufficient amount of information. Where it manages to help us in the practical sense by acting as a pre-empt for both disasters and trends, helping us to sidestep or ride on them, it can also be dangerous to us if accompanied by a lack of information, like Fukushimas officials were, or if by a lax attitude. To make full utility of our ability to predict the future, apart from the prediction itself, Man must adopt a conscientious attitude as well to ensure that he does not fall prey to inaccurate predictions. To sum it up, I feel that predicting the future can have its pluses and minuses, the latter of which we are able to minimize by being more meticulous in our actions. Predicting the future, however, will remain an integral part of human life as it has been through the ages, because of how closely tied it is to our natural desires to satisfy curiosity and attain security, and will not lose its appeal.