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BASIC WEATHER
Erin Moore S/V Romany Star
Be aware of your surroundings and how they can affect wind and waves You can experience local or loco conditions that are specific to your area and wont be part of any forecast. Land and Sea Breezes These occur in coastal areas and are important to consider when anchoring. As the land heats up during the day, the warm air above it rises, and the cooler air over the water moves in to replace it. At night, the relatively warm air over the water rises and is replaced by the cooler air over land, thus the land breeze. Land features Winds coming down canyons and off promontories and headlands often blow as much as twice the speeds forecast for the area. Watch for this in moutainous areas (especially the north of Baja), and when rounding a point (the punta effect). The Bahia L.A. area is known for the elefante winds that funnel down from canyons between high mountains to the west. Keep an eye out at all times Keep your weather eyes peeled. You dont want to be caught by surprise by a squall you would have noticed had you looked behind you to see an approaching bank of roiling black clouds. As a boater, youre most interested in wind strength and direction and wave height. The longer the wind has been blowing and the larger the area of water its been blowing over (called fetch), the higher the wave height will be. It can take a full 24 hours for big, sloppy seas to die down after a howling norther in the Sea of Cortez. So how are you going to know whats coming when youre thinking of crossing the Sea or just heading up to Partida Cove? A good place to start is to listen to weather forecasts over your HF radio. A few SSB and Ham radio nets with weather for Mexico Amigo Net with Don: SSB Net. 8.122. 1400 warm-up/1415 weather (7:15 a.m. MST) Sonrisa Net* with Geary: 3.968. 1430/1445 (7:45 a.m. MST) Southbound Net with Don: 6.516. 0145/0205. (7:05 p.m. MST) All times are Zulu (UTC or Greenwich Mean Time). Mountain Standard=UTC-7 Some nets observe Daylight Savings Time; some dont. * HAM Net (license required to transmit) You can read Gearys Amigo net forecast on line at www.sonrisanet.org. Click on Todays Weather Recap. If you want to familiarize yourself with HF radio forecasts, its good practice to listen to the weather for a week straight. Have a chart handy for reference until youre familiar with the geography of the area, especially the towns and points (Abreojos, Cabo Falso, Pt Concepcion, Cabo Corrientes). It gets easier once you learn the names and the pattern of the forecast (e.g., Geary does today and tomorrow for many areas. Outside first, then N to S on the inside of the peninsula, then N to S mainland side. Then he does a 3-day forecast.) Northern and Southern crossings: N: San Carlos to Santa Rosalia
2 S: Mazatlan to Muertos But what are they talking about on these nets? High and Low Pressure Systems Warmer air rises, and cooler air sinks. At the poles, cool air sinks toward the earth, creating vast areas of high pressure. Think of the air pressing down on the earth. At the equator, warm air rises from the earths surface, creating areas (also called systems) of low pressure. If the earth didnt rotate and there were no land masses, movement of high and low pressure areas would be simplesouthward from the poles at low altitude, and northward from the equator at high altitude. But the rotation of the earth and the friction caused by land masses make things much more complicated. Just remember that masses of air of different temperatures are associated with all pressure differences. What do Areas of High and Low Pressure Mean to You on the Water? High pressure usually leads to clear skies, lighter winds, and a reduced chance of precipitation. Low pressure leads to unsettled weather with increased cloudiness, increased winds, increased temperatures, and an increased chance of precipitationincreased everything! Hurricanes and winter storms are intense varieties of low pressure systems. To figure out where a low is in relation to your position, stand with your back to the wind and point to the left. Youre pointing toward the low. (In the southern hemisphere, point to the right.) High pressure=Usually good weather (think of getting high) Low pressure=Usually not so good (you feel low) Air flows from areas of high pressure to areas of low pressure. Thats why a high pressure area over the Four Corners in the U.S.something youll often hear referred to on the nets--often brings a norther (strong winds, sometimes gale force, blowing out of the north) to the Sea of Cortez. The air is being sucked from the Four Corners region to an area of lower pressure to the southwest of us here in La Paz, resulting in high winds for us and Santa Ana winds in southern California.
3 Reading Surface Analysis Charts or Weather Faxes What in the heck are all those squiggly lines?
H is for high pressure area, and you can guess what L is for. 1013.23 millibars is average sea level pressure (29.92 inches). The lowest pressure ever recorded was 870 mb at the center of a hurricane. In the diagram above, 12 means 1012 mb; 20 means 1020 mb. 98 would mean 998 mb. Isobars: a contour line of equal pressure. If they are tightly spaced and look squished together, wind speeds are probably high. Pressure gradient: Change in pressure measured across a given distance. Just think pressure change. The higher the gradient, the higher the winds. Ridge: An elongated area of high pressure. Trough/trof: An elongated area of low pressure, often associated with a front. Well get to fronts in a minute.
The straight arrows in figure b show the direction of movement of the low pressure system toward the northeast. A circled X in the direction of movement would predict the position of the system 24 hours from the time of the forecast. High pressure systems generally move more slowly than low pressure systems. High pressure systems rotate clockwise in the northern hemisphere; low pressure systems rotate counter-clockwise. Think Low Left, High Right. Just to keep things confusing, rotation is the opposite in the southern hemisphere. You can tell what direction the winds are likely to come from depending on where you are in relation to the center of the system. Someone to the east of the center of high pressure in d will probably have northerly winds, while someone on a boat to the west of the system center will experience southerly winds. The opposite applies to low pressure system a. If the center of a storm passes over you, youll experience wind from every direction of the compass as the system moves through. Its important to know the prevailing wind pattern, as that will tell you where the storm is probably headed (in La Paz, the prevailing winds are westerly, so a system would probably move to the east). Watch for areas between high and low pressure systems. These may have dangerously high and confused seas that are not shown on the charts. What are fronts? Fronts are the boundaries between air masses of different temperature and density (cold air is denser weighs morethan warm air). They often bring significant changes in the weather. If warmer air is moving toward colder air, it is a warm front. These are shown on weather maps as a red line with
5 scallops on it. If colder air is moving toward warmer air, then it is a cold front. Remember warm and cold are relative. A cold front wont necessarily be cold, just colder than the air surrounding it. Cold fronts are always shown as a blue line with arrow points on it (think of certain body parts getting pointy when youre cold). If neither air mass is moving much, it is called a stationary front, shown as an alternating red and blue line. An occluded front occurs when a faster moving cold front rides up over a warm front. There is often rain in front of and behind these fronts, and sometimes thunderstorms. Occluded fronts are indicated on a weather map by a line with alternating half-circles and triangles pointing in direction of travel. Map Symbols of Fronts
1. cold front 2. warm front 3. stationary front 4. occluded front 5. surface trough 6. squall line 7. dry line 8. tropical wave
A stationary front is an air mass that is not moving. A cold front is an area of cooler air, not cold air. It is possible to have cold fronts in the summer. A cold front often triggers storms. A warm front is a leading edge of warmer air.
An occluded front occurs when a faster moving cold front passes under a warm front, and catches up to another cold front. There is often rain in front of and behind these fronts.
Now lets go back to that confusing weather graphic on page 3 and see if things make more sense... What will you see from your boat as a front approaches? Usually high, thin cirrus clouds are the first sign of an approaching warm front (this could be 24 hours in advance). The clouds keep getting lower and lower in the sky, and pressure drops. There may be some wind gusts, and temperatures will rise, then level off. When the front arrives, there will be steady and heavy rainfall. As the front passes, the wind will shift in a clockwise direction in the northern hemisphere (e.g., northeast to southeast). Gathering cumulus clouds often indicate an approaching cold front. It will probably arrive in 6-12 hours. As it comes closer, you will have increasing winds and possibly some squalls and thunder maybe even hail. Pressure will drop dramatically and rise again rapidly after passage. Cold fronts move faster than warm fronts, so changes occur more quickly and violently. In the northern hemisphere, the wind will shift in a clockwise direction as the front passes over, with strong gusts after frontal passage. Fair skies with scattered showers and cooler temperatures usually follow the passage of a cold front.
7 Cloud Formations Cirrus are thin clouds very high in the sky, often indicate the approach of a warm front. Nimbostratus are your basic rain cloud: heavy, gray clouds, often with a jagged lower edge, with their base at about 3,000 feet. Cumulus are the cotton ball clouds that you see on sunny days. If they start clumping together into bigger and bigger clumps, be ready for a change in the weather. Cumulonimbus are the result of many cumulus clouds accumulating. Theyre the classic thundercloud, reaching great heights, often with a top edge flat like an anvil. The cloud may mostly be white, but the base is usually gray. These can bring heavy rain and sometimes hail. Steer clear! Fog: Learn how to use your radar before you need it. Check the manual and see what tricky things you can accomplish--a great way to stay awake during a boring night watch.
The tips of the tip-less arrows on a GRIB file point in the direction the wind will blow. The tail indicates the direction the wind will blow from. The hatches on the arrows tail indicate wind speed. A half line is 5 knots, and a full line is 10 knots. A pennant or triangle is 50 knots. You dont want to see those! Wind is always discussed in terms of what direction it will blow from, not to. A northerly wind blows from the north. The information for wind speed is always given in knots (1 knot = 1.15 miles per hour). On weather faxes and grib files and in radio forecasts, wind speeds are averages. Gusts may be up to 40% stronger than average speeds. If you see 25 knots on the GRIB file, expect some 35 knot gusts. The same applies to wave height: wave and swell heights represent the average of the highest one third of waves. The maximum wave height can be up to twice as high! Some sources other than HF radio nets for weather conditions: GRIB Files (via Winlink or Sailmail) GRIB (stands for gridded binary). Five-day forecasts with wind vectors and/or sea state. These are especially useful when you cant hear HF radio nets due to bad propagation, engine noise, or just being busy dealing with something on deck, like ironing your bikini. In order to receive GRIB files, you must be able to receive e-mail via either WinLink or SailMail: http://www.sailmail.com/ and http://winlink.org/ Sailmail charges annual fee of $250. Winlink is free, but requires a General HAM license. Software is free for both.
9 Send the following: To: query@saildocs.com grib:10N,35N,090W,160W|1,1|12,24,48,72,96,120,144,168,192| or to receive files daily at about 1200Z send: sub grib:10N,35N,090W,160W|1,1|12,24,48,72,96,120,144,168,192 days=30 You can also receive text documents with the forecast for a specific area by sending a different query to query@saildocs.com. Ask Susan on Two Can Play for more information.
Weather fax WORLDWIDE MARINE WEATHERFAX BROADCAST SCHEDULES http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/marine/rfax.pdf In order to determine optimum propagation times, use one of the readily available propagation software packages. Dons favorite is available at http://elbert.its.bldrdoc.gov/pc_hf/hfwin32.html Buoy weather From www.buoyweather.com for $10 you can get 100 messages, triggered by your own email, each giving a voyage forecast. Commanders Weather: www.commandersweather.com Not the cheapest option, but one of the simplest. Theyll essentially e-mail you a personalized forecast and recommend a departure date for your passage.
10 The Coriolis Effect Warm air rises and cold air sinks. A very basic description of worldwide air movement: warm air rises at the equator, creating low pressure. Cool air sinks at the poles, creating high pressure. If the Earth werent rotating, air masses would move south to north. To an Earth-based observer, the Earths rotation makes the flow of air seem to curve to the right in the Northern Hemisphere, and to the left in the Southern Hemisphere. But a space-based observer would see the air masses moving in a straight line north to south and south to north as the earth rotates below...This is called the Coriolis Effect.
Coriolis Effect