July

10

4Ggear Quarterly Report:

Infrastructure Trends
Issue 2

By: Robert Syputa and Chad Pralle

Reviewed By: Adlane Fellah

Maravedis Inc., 410 rue des Recollets, Suite 301, Montreal, QC

H2Y 1W2 CANADA

Executive Summary
The wireless industry has made it clear over the last year or so that 4G technology is a short-term
necessity in mature markets, and the long-term answer to broadband connectivity worldwide. In mature
markets, consumers are beginning to find ubiquitous access to medium or higher-rate broadband a
necessary part of their communications capabilities. In developing markets, wireless will continue to be
the only affordable way to deliver broadband and governments will foster those services to promote
economic growth. Thus, it is clear that the experience with voice services over the last two decades in
which it overtook and caused the decline of wireline will repeat itself with broadband. That is, wireless
will become the dominant method to deliver broadband services to
users. This process may take 10 years or more, but it will happen.
So, we find ourselves on the verge of another upgrade of wireless
technology and the potential is tremendous. However, the entire
wireless industry is in the midst of interesting circumstances that are
causing fundamental changes throughout the industry. The global
recession, new technologies and devices, open networks, an explosion
of data usage, commoditization and the new competition that brings; all
of these things have made and will continue to make serious waves in
the industry. As a result, the list of top 5 infrastructure providers has
been rearranging itself for the past few years and we expect this to
continue.
The biggest issue that service providers are dealing with today is how
to deal with the explosion of data usage in the face of modestly
increasing revenues. Carriers expect to see a 10,000% increase in percapita data usage over a five-year period. At the same time, many of
their revenue-generating services such as ring-tones and SMS are at
risk as SmartPhones proliferate. Carriers are scrambling to determine
how to remain profitable in this new environment.
So, what factors will lead to success for infrastructure vendors? How
will the old guard compete with new leaders? Which companies are
best positioned for growth and which kinds of solutions and services
are likely to promote that growth?
This report focuses on the 10 top vendors in LTE and WiMAX:
Airspan Networks
Alcatel-Lucent
Alvarion
Aviat Networks
Ericsson
Huawei
Motorola
Nokia-Siemens Networks
Samsung
ZTE

The acquisition of Motorola

Networks by NSN shows
how competition has
shifted to a few integrated
systems suppliers which
has left the second tier to
compete on price. The
jewels in the deal include
relationships with North
American and Japanese
operators. The exclusion of
Motorola's patents
indicates the importance
IPR licensing: How IPR
licenses stack up remains
the caveat for wider 4G
adoption and a hope for
WiMAX to regain
momentum

With regard to WiMAX, it has been a difficult year. The hope that WiMAX could become a worldwide
standard for mobile broadband access has mostly evaporated. The technology is certainly sufficient, but
incumbency is too hard to defeat. 4G network rollouts require the capital that only tier-1 service providers
can provide and they benefit from those providers existing 3G and 2G networks to provide ubiquitous
access. As a result, the worlds major carriers have been virtually unanimous in their vote for LTE.

4Ggear Quarterly Report Issue 2

The situation for WiMAX is anything but dire, however. We fully expect to see continued growth in the
WiMAX market. In the short term there are still many network deployments underway with significant
capacity to be filled. Some of these will continue unimpeded by LTEs impending arrival. In addition, we
expect to see tremendous growth in WiMAX vertical markets, driven by low-cost solutions that have been
enabled by the significant investment of the WiMAX ecosystem. Certain vendors, such as Motorola,
Alvarion, and Airspan, who have a good head start on applicable solutions, have already decided to
embrace these vertical markets. Others including Huawei and Samsung are not as well positioned for this
market at this time.
So we expect LTE to replace WiMAX almost completely for mainstream mobile broadband applications,
but when? Although there are rumblings about many large WiMAX operators switching to LTE, and Yota
just announced definitively that it would do so, WiMAX operators will continue to grow their networks until
LTE is a real threat that is, when the networks are installed and mature enough for commercial service.
Although Verizon states that it will launch 20 to 30 LTE networks in 2010, our findings are that the
technology is not sufficiently mature to warrant such early availability. At this stage of solution
development we expect that all early-adopter carriers will announce delays later this year, with suitable
commercial network stability of LTE networks happening later in 2011.
A vendors success in LTE will certainly depend upon the traditional success factors: existing customer
base, successful product development, etc. However, the ongoing capacity crunch from SmartPhones is
driving significant changes in the topology and methodology of network deployments. Vendors who
recognize this change and provide the best solutions to it have an opportunity to significant improve their
market share.
First, networks will be bigger. Improvements in technology and additional spectrum are not sufficient to
provide the additional capacity that will be required in the next 5 years. Carriers will also need to install an
order of magnitude more base stations in their networks. The bulk of these base stations will be managed
picocells, a significant portion of which will need to be installed in non-traditional locations, which we
expect to drive innovation in high-efficiency compact base stations and backhaul.
The issue facing service providers is that this increasing bandwidth demand does not arrive with a
corresponding increase in revenues. Carriers need to deploy and manage these base stations at
significantly lower costs per site. Recognizing this need, vendors are actively promoting Self-Organizing
Network (SON) solutions to enable a plug-and-play experience with base stations. SON is a no-mans
land today, however. There are only very high-level guidelines for SON functionality, and no consensus
on how these functions should be performed. Furthermore, there is not yet any real push for
interoperability, which we feel is an absolute requirement for the long-term success of such a solution.
In this environment, we expect Ericsson and Huawei to fare very well. Other vendors may find themselves
squeezed between Ericssons incumbent leadership position and Huaweis pricing and financing. NokiaSiemens Networks has developed some very interesting solutions focusing on flexibility, efficiency, and
performance which, combined with a good existing customer base, may enable it to keep pace. The
common theme from all vendors is end-to-end solutions and Self-Organizing Networks.
In short, these are still very early days for LTE and a lot will depend upon the performance of trials over
the next 12 months. Implementing a new airlink standard is exceptionally tricky and the major vendors
have not attempted something so new and so complex for a long time. By comparison, WiMAX took 5
years to go from standardization to mature product. Vendors will benefit to some extent from the WiMAX
ecosystem, but one should expect delays.
One note of caution, however: the point-of-no-return for a switch from WiMAX to LTE is likely in the
millions of subscribers for some carriers. Waiting for LTE delays to enable WiMAX to compete in that
market would be wishful thinking. LTE will be the dominant world standard for mobile broadband, and
WiMAX will have to find its place in that world.

Copyright 2010 Maravedis Inc. March 2010

4Ggear Quarterly Report Issue 2

Questions Answered by This Report

The primary focus of this report is to provide an evaluation of leading 4G equipment vendors, their
ranking among suppliers, the major challenges and opportunities they face and to provide our
recommendations and insights based on years of industry experience.
The following are some of the questions answered in the report:

How is the development of WiMAX and LTE proceeding to enhanced and second-generation
mobile versions that target true 4G performance levels?
Which operators are committed to deploy LTE?
What are the current LTE deployments and devices?
Who are the leading LTE and WiMAX vendors, and what are their strengths and weaknesses?
How will the leading vendors fare as WiMAX and LTE roll forward in the market?
How soon are LTE and TD-LTE likely to be deployed?
How will WiMAX fare in an increasingly LTE world?
Why are major WiMAX service providers defecting to LTE?
What role multiple-mode chip enabled devices will play in the development and migration of
WiMAX and LTE deployments?
How has the iPhone changed the industry?
What will be the impact of the impending broadband data crunch in context of spectral efficiencies
of various versions of WiMAX and LTE standards?
How many more base stations will carriers have to deploy to meet capacity increases?
Why aren't femtocells the answer to the capacity crunch?
What technologies and products will provide the greatest relief from the data capacity burden?
What new lucrative business category is enabled by 4G QoS?
What are the most applicable applications for the myriad worldwide frequency bands for WiMAX
and LTE?
What is the potential of the market to fracture due to the diversity of spectrum allocations?
What is a Self-Organizing Network (SON) and why is it important?
How will alternative form-factor base stations and SONs affect network architectures?
What factors are driving base station commoditization?
Why are many emerging markets considering skipping 3G and going straight to 4G?
And much more!

Copyright 2010 Maravedis Inc. March 2010

4Ggear Quarterly Report Issue 2

Table of Contents
Executive Summary ...................................................................................................... 1
Key Findings .................................................................................................................. 3
Questions Answered by This Report........................................................................... 5
List of Figures ............................................................................................................... 9
List of Tables ................................................................................................................. 9
Forward ........................................................................................................................ 10
Methodology and Resources ..................................................................................... 10
1. 4G Market Update and Overview ............................................................................ 12
2. Major Events ............................................................................................................ 20
3. 4G RAN Vendor Landscape ................................................................................... 26
3.1. Airspan Inc. .....................................................................................................................26
3.1.1. Overview...................................................................................................................26
3.1.2. Solutions ...................................................................................................................26
3.1.3. Product Overview .....................................................................................................27
3.1.4. Recent News ............................................................................................................30
3.1.5 SWOT........................................................................................................................30
3.1.6 Future ........................................................................................................................31
3.2. Alcatel-Lucent .................................................................................................................32
3.2.1 Overview....................................................................................................................32
3.2.2. Solutions ...................................................................................................................34
3.2.3. Product Overview .....................................................................................................35
3.2.4. Recent News ............................................................................................................38
3.2.5. SWOT.......................................................................................................................40
3.2.6. Future .......................................................................................................................41
3.2.7. Recommendations ....................................................................................................41
3.3. Alvarion ...........................................................................................................................42
3.3.1. Overview...................................................................................................................42
3.3.2. Solutions ...................................................................................................................43
3.2.4. Product Overview .....................................................................................................43
3.3.5. Recent News ............................................................................................................44
3.2.6. SWOT.......................................................................................................................45
3.2.7. Future .......................................................................................................................46
3.2.8. Recommendations ....................................................................................................46
3.4. Aviat Networks ................................................................................................................46
3.4.1. Overview...................................................................................................................46
3.4.2. Solutions ...................................................................................................................47
3.4.3. Product Overview .....................................................................................................48
3.4.5. Recent News ............................................................................................................49
3.4.6. SWOT.......................................................................................................................49
3.4.7. Future .......................................................................................................................50
3.5. Ericsson ..........................................................................................................................50
3.5.1. Overview...................................................................................................................50
3.5.2. Solutions ...................................................................................................................51
3.5.3. Product Overview .....................................................................................................51

Copyright 2010 Maravedis Inc. March 2010

4Ggear Quarterly Report Issue 2

3.5.4. Recent News ............................................................................................................51

3.5.5. SWOT.......................................................................................................................52
3.5.6. Future .......................................................................................................................52
3.5.7. Recommendations ....................................................................................................53
3.6. Huawei ............................................................................................................................53
3.6.1. Overview...................................................................................................................53
3.6.2. Solutions ...................................................................................................................54
3.6.3 Product Overview ......................................................................................................54
3.6.4. Recent News ............................................................................................................55
3.6.5. SWOT.......................................................................................................................56
3.6.6. Future .......................................................................................................................56
3.6.7. Recommendation......................................................................................................56
3.7. Motorola ..........................................................................................................................57
3.7.1. Overview...................................................................................................................57
3.7.2. Solutions ...................................................................................................................58
3.7.3. Product Overview .....................................................................................................58
3.7.4. SWOT.......................................................................................................................59
3.7.5. Future .......................................................................................................................59
3.7.6. Recommendations ....................................................................................................60
3.8. Nokia-Siemens Networks ................................................................................................60
3.8.1. Overview...................................................................................................................60
3.8.2. Solutions ...................................................................................................................61
3.8.3. Product Overview .....................................................................................................61
3.8.4. Recent News ............................................................................................................61
3.8.5. SWOT.......................................................................................................................62
3.8.6. Future .......................................................................................................................63
3.8.7. Recommendations ....................................................................................................63
3.9. Samsung ........................................................................................................................63
3.9.1. Overview...................................................................................................................63
3.9.2. Solutions ...................................................................................................................64
3.9.3. Product Overview .....................................................................................................64
3.9.4. Recent News ............................................................................................................70
3.9.5. SWOT.......................................................................................................................71
3.9.6. Future .......................................................................................................................72
3.9.7. Recommendations ....................................................................................................72
3.10. ZTE ...............................................................................................................................72
3.10.1. Overview.................................................................................................................72
3.10.2. Solutions .................................................................................................................72
3.10.3. Product Overview ...................................................................................................73
3.10.4. Recent News ..........................................................................................................75
3.10.5. SWOT .....................................................................................................................76
3.10.6. Future .....................................................................................................................76

4. 4G Infrastructure Vendor Ranking ............................................................................. 76

4.1 WiMAX Vendors .............................................................................................................76
4.1.1. Description of Criteria ...............................................................................................77
4.1.2. WiMAX Rankings Analysis ........................................................................................77
4.2 LTE ..................................................................................................................................78
4.2.1. Description of Criteria ...............................................................................................78
4.2.2. LTE Rankings Analysis .............................................................................................79

5. 4G Device Updates ................................................................................................... 79

Copyright 2010 Maravedis Inc. March 2010

4Ggear Quarterly Report Issue 2

5.1. WiMAX Device Trends and Drivers ..............................................................................79

5.1.1. WiMAX Device Landscape as of Years End 2009 ....................................................80
5.1.2. WiMAX Became Fully Mobile in 2010 ......................................................................80
5.1.3. What Became of Volume Expectations for WiMAX Laptops and UMDs? ..................80
5.1.4. Will Dual-Mode Devices (GSM + WiMAX or CDMA + WiMAX) Gain Momentum? ....81
5.1.5. Fixed Device versus Mobile Device: Long Term Trend .............................................81
5.2. LTE Device Trends and Drivers ...................................................................................81
5.2.1. LTE Device Landscape .............................................................................................82
5.2.2. LTE-Only Demand ....................................................................................................83

Copyright 2010 Maravedis Inc. March 2010

4Ggear Quarterly Report Issue 2

List of Figures
Figure 1 - Regional Breakdown of POPs Covered by Top 25 LTE Operators (Committed) Worldwide.... 22
Figure 2 - Mobile ARPU Breakdown of Top 25 LTE Operators ................................................................. 22
Figure 3 - Airspan Base Stations ................................................................................................................ 27
Figure 4 Airspan HyperMAX .................................................................................................................... 28
Figure 5 Airspan MicroMAXe ................................................................................................................... 28
Figure 6 - MacroMAXe ................................................................................................................................ 29
Figure 7 - Airspan ControlMAX ................................................................................................................... 29
Figure 8 - Airspan VoiceMAX ...................................................................................................................... 30
Figure 9 - Alcatel-Lucent 2010 Organization Structure ............................................................................... 32
Figure 10 - ALcatel-Lucent High Leverage Network ................................................................................... 33
Figure 11 - Alcatel-Lucent 9740 WiMAX Access Controller ....................................................................... 36
Figure 12 - Alcatel-Lucent 9753 WiMAX Operation and Maintenance Center ........................................... 36
Figure 13 Alcatel-Lucent Wireless RAN Product Applications................................................................. 37
Figure 14 - AL-LU Evolved Packet Core Solution ....................................................................................... 38
Figure 15 - Alvarion Product Focus ............................................................................................................ 43
Figure 16 - Aviat StarMAX 6000 Base Stations .......................................................................................... 48
Figure 17 Aviat StarMAX 3000 Subscriber Stations ................................................................................ 48
Figure 18 Aviat Wireless Services Gateway ............................................................................................. 48
Figure 19 Aviat StarMAX 2100 Subscriber Stations ................................................................................ 49
Figure 20 - Samsung M-WiMAX Base Station SPI-2410............................................................................ 64
Figure 21 Samsung M-WiMAX Base Station SPI-2213 ........................................................................... 65
Figure 22 - Samsung Picocell U-RAS Light Series 3P ............................................................................... 65
Figure 23 - Samsung Picocell U-RAS Light Series 3F ............................................................................... 66
Figure 24 - Samsung Picocell U-RAS Light Series 5 .................................................................................. 66
Figure 25 - Samsung SWD-M100 Mondi .................................................................................................. 66
Figure 26 - Samsung SWD-V300 ............................................................................................................... 67
Figure 27 - Samsung Smart Phone (SPH-M8400) ..................................................................................... 68
Figure 28 - Samsung Mobile Internet Device (SWD-M100) ....................................................................... 68
Figure 29 - Samsung USB Dongle (SWC-U200) ........................................................................................ 68
Figure 30 - Samsung USB Dongle (SPH-H1300) ....................................................................................... 69
Figure 31 - Samsung PC Card (SWC-E100) .............................................................................................. 69
Figure 32 - Samsung WiMAX Macrocell Unit .............................................................................................. 69
Figure 33 - Samsung Picocell ..................................................................................................................... 70
Figure 34 - Samsung Femtocell .................................................................................................................. 70
Figure 35 - ZTE E9200 (W100/200) ............................................................................................................ 74
Figure 35 - ZTE B9100 (BBU), R9100 (RRU) ............................................................................................. 74
Figure 36 - ZTE ZXMBW-A250 ................................................................................................................... 74

List of Tables
Table 1 - Comparison of Spectral Efficiency by 4G Access Standard ........................................................ 16
Table 2 - List of Typical Base Station Formats and Characteristics ........................................................... 17

Copyright 2010 Maravedis Inc. March 2010