Space NMD AII I||e

AC |an
|an 1he Un|ted States federa| government shou|d dep|oy spacebased |asers |n |ow
earth orb|t beyond the Larth's mesosphere for the purpose of ba|||st|c m|ss||e defense
and defense aga|nst ant|sate|||te weapons
Content|on North korea
Status quo 8MD systems are |nsuff|c|ent to dea| w|th rap|d|y |ncreas|ng arsena|s of
Iran and North korea
k||nger (8ruce Senlor 8esearch lellow [ PerlLage 1he Case for Comprehenslve Mlsslle
uefense ln Asla" !an 7 hLLp//wwwherlLageorg/research/reporLs/2011/01/Lhecasefor
comprehenslvemlsslledefenselnasla
1o deter and defend aga|nst ba|||st|c m|ss||e attacks the Un|ted States and |ts a|||es need a
comprehens|ve |ntegrated mu|t||ayered ba|||st|c m|ss||e defense (8MD) system kegrettab|y
the Un|ted States m|||tary cannot current|y protect a|| Amer|can c|t|zens or a|| of the
home|andmuch |ess |ts troops a|||es and fr|ends abroadfrom ba|||st|c m|ss||e attacks
uesplLe recenL deploymenLs and Lechnologlcal advances the Un|ted States st||| does not have suff|c|ent defenses
US m|ss||e defense capab|||t|es "ex|st |n numbers that are on|y modest |n v|ew of the
expand|ng reg|ona| m|ss||e threat"2 1he unlLed SLaLes has 30 groundbased lnLercepLors sLaLloned ln Alaska and Callfornla
Lo defend agalnsL longrange mlsslle aLLacks 1he uS navy has equlpped 18 Aegls warshlps wlLh seabased lnLercepLors and 21 Aegls warshlps
wlLh longrange survelllance and Lracklng sysLems 1hese seabased lnLercepLors can defeaL shorLrange and medlumrange mlsslles ln mld
fllghL Many of Lhese shlps are sLaLloned ln Lhe aclflc and Lhe Sea of !apan Lqulpplng addlLlonal Aegls crulsers would provlde an ablllLy Lo
paLrol Amerlca's coasLs as well AddlLlonal desLroyers are needed Lo perform Lhe new phasedadapLlve approach mlsslon ln Lurope Lo replace
Lhe planned Lhlrd slLe" ln oland and Lhe Czech 8epubllc 1he Un|ted States current|y has the capab|||ty to shoot
down approx|mate|y ba|||st|c m|ss||es |aunched from North korea or Iran but not |f Iran
and North korea cont|nued to deve|op the|r nuc|ear capab|||t|es and coord|nated an attack uS
mlsslle defense sysLems cannoL proLecL agalnsL 8usslan or Chlnese balllsLlc mlsslles or agalnsL shorLrange or medlumrange mlsslles launched
from shlps off Lhe uS coasL A comprehenslve mlsslle defense sysLem would noL only proLecL Lhe Amerlcan homeland buL also reassure uS
frlends and allles of WashlngLon's commlLmenL Lo Lhelr securlLy agalnsL sLeadlly rlslng mlllLary rlsks and LhreaLs of coerclon or aggresslon
Mlsslle defense conLrlbuLes Lo reglonal peace and sLablllLy and supporLs lnLernaLlonal nonprollferaLlon efforLs by reduclng oLher naLlons'
percelved need Lo acqulre nuclear weapons Conversely the absence of suff|c|ent m|ss||e defenses |eaves the US
and |ts a|||es "||m|ted |n the|r act|ons and pursu|t of the|r |nterests |f they are vu|nerab|e to
North korean or Iran|an m|ss||es"
North korea's nuc|ear m|ss||es are a threat past provocat|ons prove
omfret (!ohn WashlngLon osL WrlLer ClLlng 8oberL CaLes uefense secreLary CaLes says norLh korean balllsLlc mlsslles pose
dlrecL LhreaL Lo uS" !an 11 hLLp//wwwwashlngLonposLcom/wpdyn/conLenL/arLlcle/2011/01/11/A82011011103260hLml)
8Ll!lnC uS uefense SecreLary 8oberL M ates warned North korea 1uesday that |ts nuc|ear and
|ntercont|nenta| ba|||st|c m|ss||e programs are becom|ng a d|rect threat to the Un|ted
States ates who ls ln Chlna on Lhe second leg of a fourcounLry Asla Lour pred|cted that North koreas recluslve
governmenL wou|d succeed |n deve|op|ng an |ntercont|nenta| ba|||st|c m|ss||e w|th|n f|ve years
8uL ln a flrsL for a uS senlor offlclal CaLes also gave norLh korea some concreLe suggesLlons abouL whaL Lhe unlLed SLaLes wanLs lL Lo do ln
order Lo resLarL sLalled Lalks over lLs nuclear weapons program declare a moraLorlum on boLh mlsslle and nuclear LesLs Pls blunL commenLs
came afLer a meeLlng wlLh Chlnese presldenL Pu !lnLao an ally of norLh korean leader klm !ong ll Larller 1uesday Chlnas mlllLary sLaged a LesL
of lLs new sLealLh alrcrafLan aggresslve move LhaL could be lnLerpreLed as a snub of boLh Lhe unlLed SLaLes and of Chlnas clvlllan leadershlp
Stopp|ng North koreas nuc|ear program has |ong been a top goa| for the Un|ted States and
one that has proved e|us|ve North korea has threatened to test |ntercont|nenta| ba|||st|c
m|ss||es and has a|ready conducted underground nuc|ear tests LhaL prove lL has manufacLured aL leasL
rudlmenLary nuclear weapons WlLh Lhe norLh koreans conLlnulng developmenL of nuclear weapons and Lhelr developmenL of
lnLerconLlnenLal balllsLlc mlsslles norLh korea ls becomlng a dlrecL LhreaL Lo Lhe unlLed SLaLes and we have Lo Lake LhaL lnLo accounL CaLes
sald 1he defense secreLary also sald Lhe unlLed SLaLes ls renewlng lLs efforLs Lo flnd a way Lo curLall norLh koreas erraLlc and provocaLlve
behavlor We conslder Lhls a slLuaLlon of real concern and we Lhlnk Lhere ls some urgency Lo proceedlng down Lhe Lrack of negoLlaLlons and
engagemenL he sald 1ens|ons have skyrocketed on the korean pen|nsu|a slnce March when North
korea sank a South korean warsh|p k||||ng 46 sa||ors and then |n November she||ed a South
korean |s|and kllllng Lwo clvlllans and Lwo soldlers
Space based |asers so|ve a|| reg|ona| conf||ct esca|at|on
!ohn M|||er wrlLer for Lhe free republlc and naLlonal revlew onllne 22 Lhe free republlc
Cur nexL ManlfesL uesLlny Amerlca should move Lo conLrol space now and declslvely"
hLLp//wwwfreerepubllccom/focus/news/714383/posLs)
1haL may sound llke 21sLcenLury lmperlallsm whlch ln essence lL would be 8uL ls LhaL so
bad? Imag|ne that the Un|ted States currenLly ma|nta|ned a battery of spacebased |asers
Ind|a and ak|stan cou|d |nch toward nuc|ear war over kashm|r on|y to be to|d that any
attempt by elLher slde to |aunch a m|ss||e wou|d resu|t |n a boostphase b|ast from outer
space W|thout tak|ng s|des the Un|ted States wou|d |mmed|ate|y defuse a tense s|tuat|on
and keep Lhe skles above 8ombay and karachl free of mushroom clouds Moreover Israe|
wou|d rece|ve protect|on from Iran and lraq 1a|wan from Ch|na and Iapan and South korea
from the mad d|ctator norLh of Lhe uMZ 1he unlLed SLaLes would be covered as well able noL
merely Lo deLer aggresslon buL also Lo defend agalnsL lL
korean conf||ct |nev|tab|e prevent|ng nuc|ear path key to m|n|m|ze conf||ct
8y Adam Schroeder $ Sun 9 !an 2011 (SLaff WrlLer for Aurum SouLh uakoLa school of mlnes and
Lechnology) ls a war wlLh norLh korea lnevlLable?" hLLp//sdsmLaurumcom/2011/01/lsawarwlLhnorLhkorea
lnevlLable/ Accessed 9/3/11 L1
As Lhe unlLed SLaLes works on drawlng down forces ln lraq and pushes Lhe counLry closer Lo democracy and freedom lnLernaLlonal confllcLs
seem far from over 8esldes Lhe conLlnulng problems ln AfghanlsLan and everpresenL Lenslons ln Lhe Mlddle LasL there |s a new
threat to |nternat|ona| stab|||ty and peace North korea's cont|nued attacks on South korea
and tens|ons towards Iapan are push|ng the proverblal enve|ope WlLh SouLh korea and !apan as allles Lhe
unlLed SLaLes wlll undoubLedly sLep ln wlLh mlllLary force resldenL Cbama has announced h|s |ntent|ons to back up
South korea |f North korean attacks cont|nue W|th whaL seems llke a|most constant UN
controversy Lowards norLh korea the country st||| def|es the |nternat|ona| commun|ty and
cont|nues |ts nuc|ear program and rocket test|ng 1he rlse of klm !ongun Lo power and hls need Lo
prove hlmself could be an underlylng reason AlLhough norLh korea may [usL be Lhrowlng a flL ln an aLLempL Lo
recelve ald neverLheless due to th|s constant be|||gerent behav|or on the part of the North
koreans |t |s c|ear a war |s |nev|tab|e 8umors of downslzed mlllLary recrulLmenL may soon go away lf Lhe unlLed SLaLes
asserLs mlllLary conLrol ln Lhe korean reglon A conslderably large amounL of Amerlcan soldlers would make Lhelr way Lo Lhe reglon WlLh a
large amounL of uS Lroops havlng already engaged ln combaL ln lraq and AfghanlsLan Lhe mlllLary wlll be sLreLched Lhln and seeklng new
recrulLmenL Conslderlng Lhe ouLcome of Lhe lasL korean War lL ls hard Lo say lf Lhls war wlll lead Lo a unlfled korea or anoLher sLale maLe In
e|ther event South korea has been a v|ct|m of |n[ust|ce and m|||tary act|on w||| take p|ace
somewhere |n the near future |f d|p|omacy fa||s and |f h|story repeats |tse|f |t most def|n|te|y
w||| fa|| and |ead to war nopefu||y th|s conf||ct w||| not be as ted|ous and hard fought as Lhe
lraq war ?eL penLagon ana|ysts have pro[ected a hard fought war w|th casua|t|es |n the
hundreds of thousands and even h|gher |f |t becomes nuc|ear lL ls hard Lo say whaL wlll happen buL one Lhlng
ls for sure someLhlng wlll happen and lL may lead Lo anoLher era slmllar Lo Lhe Cold War
North korean nuc|ear attack causes ext|nct|on
eLer nayes prof aL vlcLorla unlverslLy and Mlchael reen LxecuLlve ulrecLor of Lhe nauLllus
lnsLlLuLe 132 1he aLh noL 1aken Lhe Way SLlll Cpen uenuclearlzlng Lhe korean
enlnsula and norLheasL Asla"
hLLp//wwwnauLllusorg/fora/securlLy/10001PayesPamalCreenpdf
1he consequences of fa|||ng to address the pro||ferat|on threat posed by Lhe North korea developmenLs and
re|ated po||t|ca| and economlc |ssues are ser|ous noL only for the norLheasL Aslan reglon buL for Lhe whole
|nternat|ona| commun|ty AL worsL there |s the poss|b|||ty of nuc|ear attack1 wheLher by |ntent|on
m|sca|cu|at|on or merely acc|dent |ead|ng to Lhe resumpLlon of korean War hosLlllLles Cn Lhe korean
enlnsula lLself key populaLlon cenLres are well wlLhln shorL or medlum range mlsslles 1he whole of !apan ls llkely Lo come wlLhln norLh
korean mlsslle range yongyang has a populaLlon of over 2 mllllon Seoul (close Lo Lhe norLh korean border) 11 mllllon and 1okyo over 20
mllllon Lven a llmlLed nuclear exchange would resulL ln a holocausL of unprecedenLed proporLlons 8uL Lhe caLasLrophe wlLhln Lhe reglon
would noL be Lhe only ouLcome New research |nd|cates LhaL even a ||m|ted nuc|ear war ln Lhe reglon wou|d
rearrange our global c||mate far more qu|ck|y than global warm|ng WesLberg draws aLLenLlon Lo new sLudles
modelllng Lhe effecLs of even a llmlLed nuclear exchange lnvolvlng approxlmaLely 100 Plroshlmaslzed 13 kL bombs2 (by comparlson lL should
be noLed LhaL Lhe unlLed SLaLes currenLly deploys warheads ln Lhe range 100 Lo 477 kL LhaL ls lndlvldual warheads equlvalenL ln yleld Lo a
range of 6 Lo 32 Plroshlmas)1he sLudles lndlcaLe LhaL Lhe sooL from Lhe flres produced would lead Lo a decrease ln global LemperaLure by 123
degrees Celslus for a perlod of 68 years3 ln WesLberg's vlew 1haL ls noL global wlnLer buL Lhe nuclear darkness wlll cause a deeper drop ln
LemperaLure Lhan aL any Llme durlng Lhe lasL 1000 years 1he LemperaLure over Lhe conLlnenLs would decrease subsLanLlally more Lhan Lhe
global average A decrease ln ralnfall over Lhe conLlnenLs would also follow1he perlod of nuc|ear darkness w||| cause much
greater decrease |n gra|n product|on Lhan 3 and lL wlll conLlnue for many yearshundreds of m||||ons of people
w||| d|e from hunger1o make maLLers even worse such amounLs of smoke |n[ected |nto the stratosphere wou|d
cause a huge reduct|on |n the LarLh's proLecLlve ozone4 1hese of course are noL Lhe only consequences 8eacLors mlghL also
be LargeLed causlng furLher mayhem and downwlnd radlaLlon effecLs superlmposed on a smoklng radlaLlng ruln lefL by nuclear nexLuse
Mllllons of refugees would flee Lhe affecLed reglons 1he d|rect |mpacts and Lhe followon lmpacLs on the g|oba| economy
vla ecologlcal and food lnsecurlLy cou|d make the present global f|nanc|a| cr|s|s pa|e by comparlson Pow Lhe greaL
powers especlally Lhe nuclear weapons sLaLes respond Lo such a crlsls and ln parLlcular wheLher nuclear weapons are used ln response Lo
nuclear flrsLuse could make or break Lhe global non prollferaLlon and dlsarmamenL reglmes 1here cou|d be many unanLlclpaLed
|mpacts on reglonal and g|oba| secur|ty re|at|onsh|ps3 w|th subsequent nuc|ear breakout and geopollLlcal
Lurbulence lncludlng posslble lossofconLrol over flsslle maLerlal or warheads ln Lhe chaos of nuclear war and afLermaLh chalnreacLlon affecLs
lnvolvlng oLher poLenLlal prollferanL sLaLes 1he korean nuclear prollferaLlon lssue ls noL [usL a reglonal LhreaL buL a global one LhaL warranLs
prlorlLy conslderaLlon from Lhe lnLernaLlonal communlLy

Content|on 2 Iran
Iran |s deve|op|ng IC8M and other m|ss||e capab|||t|es
fa|tzgraff et a| (8oberL hu and rofessor of lnL SecurlLy SLudles [ 1ufLs and resldenL [ Lhe llA Wllllam Cleave hu and
rofessor [ Mlssourl SLaLe llan 8erman v for ollcy [ Lhe Amerlcan lorelgn ollcy Councll klron Sklnner hu and lellow [ Lhe Poover
lnsLlLuLlon Penry Cooper Chalrman [ Plgh lronLler P 8aker Sprlng 8esearch lellow [ PerlLage !acquelyn uavls hu and LxecuLlve v [
llA Mead 1readwell Senlor lellow [ lnsLlLuLe of Lhe norLh uanlel llne hu and 8esearch AssoclaLe [ Ml1 8oberL 1urner rofessor aL
unlverslLy of vlrglnla 8oberL !asLrow hu and Chalrman of Lhe 8oard [ Lhe Marshall lnsLlLuLe !u Wllllams vlce Admlral of Lhe uSn 1homas
karako ulrecLor of rograms [ ClaremonL lnsLlLuLe aul Weyrlch CLC [ Lhe lree Congress 8esearch and LducaLlon loundaLlon 8rlan
kennedy resldenL [ ClaremonL lnsLlLuLe Lowell Wood hu and vlslLlng lellow [ Poover !eff kueLer resldenL [ Lhe Marshall lnsLlLuLe
Lrlc LlchL Senlor AnalysL [ Lhe lree Congress 8esearch and LducaLlon loundaLlon 8 uanlel McMlchael SecreLary [ Lhe CarLhage loundaLlon
and Lhe Sarah Scalfe loundaLlon 8eporL of Lhe lndependenL Worklng Croup on Mlsslle uefense Lhe Space 8elaLlonshlp Lhe 1wenLyllrsL
CenLury" repared by Lhe lnsLlLuLe for lorelgn ollcy Analysls" hLLps//wwwclaremonLorg/reposlLory/docLlb/200901291_lwg2009pdf
lran W|th the benef|t of ass|stance from abroad |nc|ud|ng North korea and ak|stan the
Is|am|c kepub||c of Iran has moved forward w|th |ts ba|||st|c m|ss||e program lran has had a
demonsLraLed LacLlcal balllsLlc mlsslle capablllLy slnce Lhe 1980s buL ln !une 2003 |t marked a ma[or m||estone when |t
dep|oyed |ts 3k||ometerrange Shahab3 capab|e of target|ng Israe| and 1urkey as we||
as US forces ln Lhe erslan Culf 18 Slnce Lhen lran has begun mass producLlon" of Lhe orlglnal Shahab3 mlsslle 19 and commenced
work on a number of Shahab varlanLs 20 1hls work has ylelded lmporLanL dlvldends |n SepLember 2 Iran publlcly unve||ed a
"new" med|umrange ba|||st|c m|ss||e the hadr aL a mlllLary parade ln 1ehran 1h|s m|ss||e whlch Iran
c|a|ms has a range of 8 k||ometers appears Lo be an exLendedrange varlanL of Lhe Shahab3 21 Subsequent|y
|n November 2 Iran carr|ed out a test of |ts Ashoura m|ss||e a 2k||ometerrange so||d
fue| var|ant of the Shahab 22 1hese steps are part of whaL uS offlclals belleve ls a grow|ng emphas|s |n
1ehran on the deve|opment of an |ntercont|nenta| ba|||st|c m|ss||e capab|||ty As !ohn 8ood Lhen
acLlng asslsLanL secreLary of sLaLe for lnLernaLlonal securlLy and nonprollferaLlon Lold Congress ln May 2007 1he lnLelllgence CommunlLy
assesses LhaL Iran wou|d be ab|e to deve|op an IC8M capab|e of reach|ng the Un|ted States and a||
reg|ons of Lurope before 2 |f |t chose to do so And l would polnL ouL LhaL Iran has acqu|red ba|||st|c
m|ss||es from North korea |n the past and note the poss|b|||ty that |t cou|d do so aga|n |n the
future potent|a||y acqu|r|ng m|ss||es w|th even |onger ranges" As a resu|t of these advances
|t |s ||ke|y that Iran cou|d f|e|d an |ntercont|nenta| ba|||st|c m|ss||e by the m|dd|e of the next
decade Iran may have conducted tests to determ|ne whether |ts ba|||st|c m|ss||es notab|y the
Shahab3 or the Scud cou|d be detonated by remote contro| wh||e st||| |n f||ght 1he slgnlflcance of
such a capablllLy lles ln lLs poLenLlal Lo launch an elecLromagneLlc pulse (LM) aLLack dlscussed laLer ln Lhls secLlon 1hls efforL ls closely llnked
Lo lran's growlng lnLeresL ln space ln CcLober 2003 lran became Lhe flrsL space naLlon ln Lhe Musllm world when lL launched a survelllance
saLelllLe on a 8usslan rockeL from 8ussla's mlsslle base aL leseLsk Slnce Lhen Iran has made great str|des toward
deve|opment of an |nd|genous space |aunch capab|||ty ln lebruary 2007 lL successfully carrled ouL an lnlLlal LesL
of a space rockeL" bullL ln lran A year laLer unvelled lLs flrsL space cenLer wlLh 1ehran clalmlng LhaL lL had now [olned Lhe world's Lop 11
counLrles possesslng space Lechnology Lo bulld saLelllLes and launch rockeLs lnLo space" 1hese advances amp||fy and expand
Iran's ba|||st|c m|ss||e program s|nce a space|aunch veh|c|e (SLV) |s s|m||ar |n techno|ogy and
funct|on to the booster on an |ntercont|nenta| ba|||st|c m|ss||e 1he threat posed by Iran's
ba|||st|c m|ss||e program |s c|ose|y ||nked to 1ehran's nuc|ear effort Slnce lL was publlcly exposed by an
lranlan opposlLlon group ln AugusL 2002 Iran's atom|c program has been the center of |ntense |nternat|ona|
scrut|ny and frustrat|on et desp|te years of pressure by the Un|ted Nat|ons and Lhe lnLernaLlonal
communlLy Iran cont|nues to progress toward a nuc|ear capab|||ty ln CcLober 2007 lrench auLhorlLles clLlng
esLlmaLes by Lhe lnLernaLlonal ALomlc Lnergy Agency (lALA) suggesLed LhaL Iran was operat|ng 3 centr|fuges at |ts
uran|um enr|chment fac|||ty at Natanz 1hat c|a|m was |ater conf|rmed by Iran|an off|c|a|s
Accordlng Lo subsequenL pro[ecLlons LhaL number of cenLrlfuges could yleld enough hlghly enrlched uranlum for a nuclear weapon ln 2009 lf
operaLed aL full (100 percenL) efflclency and ln 2010 lf Lhey worked [usL a quarLer of Lhe Llme Slnce uecember 2007 lran has bullL a sLockplle of
low enrlched uranlum hexaflorlde Accordlng Lo Lhe lALA lran's sLockplle had reached more Lhan 1000 pounds by AugusL 31 2008 wlLh
monLhly producLlon raLes of more Lhan 100 pounds ln 2009 Lhls could glve lran aL leasL 1300 pounds LhaL could be reclrculaLed Lhrough lLs
cenLrlfuges Lo produce Lhe 33 pounds of weapongrade uranlum sufflclenL for one bomb ln Aprll 2008 lranlan presldenL Mahmoud
Ahmadlne[ad dlsclosed LhaL hls governmenL had begun Lo lnsLall anoLher 6000 cenLrlfuges aL Lhe naLanz faclllLy Iran|an |eaders
have taken th|s to be a cr|t|ca| m||estone "1he nuc|ear |ssue (of Iran) |s the most |mportant
po||t|ca| deve|opment |n contemporary h|story" Ahmad|ne[ad announced to supporLers aL LhaL Llme
Iran's v|ctory |n th|s b|ggest po||t|ca| batt|e w||| |ead to new |nternat|ona| deve|opments"
1hus a|| |nd|cators po|nt toward the deve|opment of an Iran|an nuc|ear capab|||ty w|th
vary|ng est|mates not about whether Iran |s do|ng so but |nstead when |t w||| have such
weapons
Space NMD so|ves for Iran|an LM attacks and m|ss||e str|kes
8y kenneLh 8 1|mmerman (ls a [ournallsL pollLlcal wrlLer and conservaLlve 8epubllcan acLlvlsL who ln 2000
was a candldaLe for Lhe 8epubllcan nomlnaLlon for uS SenaLor from Maryland 1lmmerman ls execuLlve dlrecLor
of Lhe loundaLlon for uemocracy ln lran an organlzaLlon LhaL works Lo supporL democraLlc movemenLs ln lran)
1uesday 29 !ul 28 0900 AM uS lnLel lran lans nuclear SLrlke on uS" hLLp//wwwnewsmaxcom/newsfronL/lran
nuclearplan/2008/07/29/ld/324724 Accessed 9/3/11 L1
Whlle noL expllclLly namlng lran 8umsfeld revealed LhaL one of Lhe naLlons ln Lhe Mlddle LasL had launched a balllsLlc mlsslle from a cargo
vessel 1hey had Laken a shorLrange probably Scud mlsslle puL lL on a LransporLererecLor launcher lowered lL ln Laken Lhe vessel ouL lnLo Lhe
waLer peeled back Lhe Lop erecLed lL flred lL lowered lL and covered lL up And Lhe shlp LhaL Lhey used was uslng a radar and elecLronlc
equlpmenL LhaL was no dlfferenL Lhan 30 60 100 oLher shlps operaLlng ln Lhe lmmedlaLe area" lran's flrsL LesL of a shlplaunched Scud mlsslle
occurred ln sprlng 1998 and was menLloned several monLhs laLer ln velled Lerms by Lhe Commlsslon Lo Assess Lhe 8alllsLlc Mlsslle 1hreaL Lo Lhe
unlLed SLaLes a bluerlbbon panel also known as Lhe 8umsfeld Commlsslon l was Lhe flrsL reporLer Lo menLlon Lhe lran sealaunched mlsslle
LesL ln an arLlcle appearlng ln Lhe WashlngLon 1lmes ln May 1999 lnLelllgence reporLs on Lhe launch were well known Lo Lhe WhlLe Pouse buL
have noL been dlssemlnaLed Lo Lhe approprlaLe congresslonal commlLLees" l wroLe Such a m|ss||e "cou|d be used |n a
devastat|ng stea|th attack aga|nst the Un|ted States or lsrael for wh|ch the Un|ted States has no
known or p|anned defense" Iew experts be||eve that Iran can be deterred from |aunch|ng
such an attack by the threat of mass|ve reta||at|on aga|nst Iran 1hey polnL Lo a uecember 2001 sLaLemenL by
former lranlan resldenL All Akbar Pasheml8afsan[anl who mulled Lhe posslblllLy of lsraell reLallaLlon afLer an lranlan nuclear sLrlke 1he use
of an aLomlc bomb agalnsL lsrael would desLroy lsrael compleLely whlle Lhe same agalnsL Lhe lslamlc only would cause damages Such a
scenarlo ls noL lnconcelvable" 8afsan[anl sald aL Lhe Llme 8ep 1renL lranks 8 Arlz plans Lo lnLroduce leglslaLlon nexL week LhaL would
requlre Lhe enLagon Lo lay Lhe groundwork for an evenLual mlllLary sLrlke agalnsL lran Lo prevenL lran from acqulrlng nuclear weapons and
LM capablllLy An LM aLLack on Amerlca would send us back Lo Lhe horse and buggy era wlLhouL Lhe horse and buggy" he Lold Lhe
ClaremonL lnsLlLuLe conference on SaLurday lf you're a LerrorlsL Lhls ls your ulLlmaLe goal your ulLlmaLe asymmeLrlc weapon "noLlng lran's
recenL sealaunched and mldfllghL warhead deLonaLlon LesLs 8ep lranks concluded 1hey could do lL elLher dlrecLly or anonymously by
puLLlng some frelghLer ouL Lhere on Lhe ocean" 1he only posslble deLerrenL agalnsL lran ls Lhe prospecL of fallure ur Craham and oLher
experLs agreed And the on|y way the Un|ted States cou|d cred|b|y threaten an Iran|an m|ss||e str|ke
wou|d be to dep|oy effect|ve nat|ona| m|ss||e defenseslL's well known LhaL people don'L go on a dleL unLll Lhey've
had a hearL aLLack" sa|d C|aremont Inst|tute pres|dent 8r|an 1 kennedy And we as a naLlon are havlng a hearL
aLLack" when lL comes Lo Lhe LhreaL of an LM aLLack from lran "As of today we have no defense aga|nst such an
attack We need spacebased m|ss||e defenses to protect aga|nst an LM attack" he to|d
Newsmax 8ep lranks sald he remalns surprlsed aL how parLlsan Lhe sub[ecL of spacebased mlsslle defenses remaln nuclear mlsslles
don'L dlscrlmlnaLe on parLy llnes when Lhey land" he sald Arlzona 8epubllcan Sen !on kyl a longsLandlng champlon of mlsslle defense Lold
Lhe ClaremonL conference on lrlday LhaL Sen Cbama has opposed mlsslle defense LooLh and nall and as presldenL would cuL fundlng for Lhese
programs dramaLlcally SenaLor Cbama has been quoLed as saylng 'l don'L agree wlLh a mlsslle defense sysLem' and LhaL we can cuL $10
bllllon of Lhe research ouL never mlnd as l say LhaL Lhe enLlre budgeL ls $96 bllllon or $93 bllllon" kyl sald Llke lranks ky| be||eves
that the on|y way to eventua||y deter Iran from |aunch|ng an LM attack on the Un|ted States
|s to dep|oy robust m|ss||e defense systems |nc|ud|ng spacebased |nterceptors 1he unlLed SLaLes
needs a mlsslle defense LhaL ls so sLrong ln all Lhe dlfferenL phases we need Lo defend agalnsL LhaL counLrles wlll declde lL's noL worLh
comlng up agalnsL us" kyl sald 1haL's one of Lhe Lhlngs LhaL defeaLed Lhe SovleL unlon 1hat's one of the ways we can dea|
w|th these rogue states and also Lhe way LhaL we can keep counLrles LhaL are noL enemles Loday buL are poLenLlal enemles
from developlng capablllLles Lo challenge us
Cbservat|on LM
Iran w||| str|ke the US tests prove they're capab|e now
8y kenneLh 8 1|mmerman (ls a [ournallsL pollLlcal wrlLer and conservaLlve 8epubllcan acLlvlsL who ln 2000
was a candldaLe for Lhe 8epubllcan nomlnaLlon for uS SenaLor from Maryland 1lmmerman ls execuLlve dlrecLor
of Lhe loundaLlon for uemocracy ln lran an organlzaLlon LhaL works Lo supporL democraLlc movemenLs ln lran)
1uesday 29 !ul 28 0900 AM uS lnLel lran lans nuclear SLrlke on uS"
hLLp//wwwnewsmaxcom/newsfronL/lrannuclearplan/2008/07/29/ld/324724 Accessed 9/3/11 L1
Iran has carr|ed out m|ss||e tests for what cou|d be a p|an for a nuc|ear str|ke on the UnlLed SLaLes
Lhe head of a naLlonal securlLy panel has warned ln LesLlmony before Lhe Pouse Armed Servlces CommlLLee and ln remarks Lo a prlvaLe
conference on mlsslle defense over Lhe weekend hosLed by Lhe ClaremonL lnsLlLuLe ur Wllllam Craham warned LhaL Lhe uS lnLelllgence
communlLy doesn'L have a sLory" Lo explaln Lhe recenL lranlan LesLs Cne group of LesLs LhaL Lroubled Craham Lhe former WhlLe Pouse
sclence advlser under resldenL 8onald 8eagan were successful efforLs Lo launch a Scud mlsslle from a plaLform ln Lhe Casplan Sea
"1hey've got test ranges |n Iran wh|ch are more than |ong enough to hand|e Scud |aunches and
even Shahab3 |aunches" Dr raham sa|d Why would Lhey be launchlng from Lhe surface of Lhe Casplan Sea? 1hey
obvlously have noL explalned LhaL Lo us" AnoLher Lroubllng group of LesLs lnvolved Shahab3 launches where Lhe Iran|ans detonated
the warhead near apogee noL over Lhe LargeL area where Lhe Lhlng would evenLually land buL at
a|t|tude" raham sa|d Why would Lhey do LhaL?" Craham chalrs Lhe Commlsslon Lo Assess Lhe 1hreaL Lo Lhe unlLed SLaLes from
LlecLromagneLlc ulse (LM) ALLack a bluerlbbon panel esLabllshed by Congress ln 2001 1he comm|ss|on exam|ned the
Iran|an tests "and wlLhouL Loo much efforL connected the dots" even Lhough Lhe uS lnLelllgence communlLy
prevlously had falled Lo do so raham sa|d 1he only plauslble explanaLlon we can flnd ls LhaL Lhe Iran|ans are f|gur|ng out
how to |aunch a m|ss||e from a shlp and get |t up to a|t|tude and then detonate |t" he sa|d "And
that's exact|y what you wou|d do |f you had a nuclear weapon on a Scud or a Shahab3 or oLher mlsslle and you wanted
to exp|ode |t over the Un|ted States" 1he comm|ss|on warned ln a reporL lssued ln Aprll that the
Un|ted States was at r|sk of a sneak nuc|ear attack by a rogue nat|on or a LerrorlsL group deslgned Lo Lake ouL
our naLlon's crlLlcal lnfrasLrucLure lf even a crude nuclear weapon were deLonaLed anywhere beLween 40 kllomeLers Lo 400 kllomeLers above
Lhe earLh ln a spllLsecond lL would generaLe an elecLromagneLlc pulse LM LhaL would crlpple mlllLary and clvlllan communlcaLlons power
LransporLaLlon waLer food and oLher lnfrasLrucLure Lhe reporL warned Whlle noL causlng lmmedlaLe clvlllan casualLles Lhe nearLerm
lmpacL on uS socleLy would dwarf Lhe damage of a dlrecL nuclear sLrlke on a uS clLy 1he flrsL lndlcaLlon of such an aLLack would be LhaL
Lhe power would go ouL and some buL noL all Lhe LelecommunlcaLlons would go ouL We would noL physlcally feel anyLhlng ln our bodles"
Craham sald As elecLrlc power waLer and gas dellvery sysLems falled Lhere would be Lruly masslve Lrafflc [ams" Craham added slnce
modern auLomoblles and slgnallng sysLems all depend on sophlsLlcaLed elecLronlcs LhaL would be dlsabled by Lhe LM wave So you would be
walklng ?ou wouldn'L be drlvlng aL LhaL polnL" Craham sald And lL wouldn'L do any good Lo call Lhe malnLenance or repalr people because
Lhey wouldn'L be able Lo geL Lhere even lf you could geL Lhrough Lo Lhem" 1he food dlsLrlbuLlon sysLem also would grlnd Lo a halL as cold
sLorage warehouses sLockplllng perlshables wenL offllne Lven warehouses equlpped wlLh backup dlesel generaLors would fall because we
wouldn'L be able Lo pump Lhe fuel lnLo Lhe Lrucks and geL Lhe Lrucks Lo Lhe warehouses" Craham sald 1he unlLed SLaLes would qulckly reverL
Lo an early 19Lh cenLury Lype of counLry" excepL LhaL we would have 10 Llmes as many people wlLh Len Llmes fewer resources he sald MosL
of Lhe Lhlngs we depend upon would be gone and we would llLerally be dependlng on our own asseLs and Lhose we could reach by walklng Lo
Lhem" Craham sald Amerlca would begln Lo resemble Lhe 2002 1v serles !eremlah" whlch deplcLs a world berefL of law lnfrasLrucLure and
memory ln Lhe 1v serles an unspeclfled vlrus wlpes ouL Lhe enLlre adulL populaLlon of Lhe planeL ln an LM aLLack Lhe casualLles would be
caused by our almosL LoLal dependence on Lechnology for everyLhlng from food and waLer Lo hosplLal care WlLhln a week or Lwo of Lhe aLLack
people would sLarL dylng Craham says eople ln hosplLals would be dylng fasLer Lhan LhaL because Lhey depend on power Lo sLay allve 8uL
Lhen lL would go Lo waLer food clvll auLhorlLy emergency servlces And we would end up wlLh a counLry wlLh many many people noL survlvlng
Lhe evenL" Asked [usL how many Amerlcans would dle lf lran were Lo launch Lhe LM aLLack lL appears Lo be preparlng Craham gave a chllllng
reply ?ou have Lo go back lnLo Lhe 1800s Lo look aL Lhe slze of populaLlon" LhaL could survlve ln a naLlon deprlved of mechanlzed agrlculLure
LransporLaLlon power waLer and communlcaLlon l'd have Lo say LhaL 70 Lo 90 percenL of Lhe populaLlon would noL be susLalnable afLer Lhls
klnd of aLLack" he sald Amerlca would be reduced Lo a core of around 30 mllllon people abouL Lhe number LhaL exlsLed ln Lhe decades afLer
Amerlca's lndependence from CreaL 8rlLaln 1he modern elecLronlc economy would shuL down and Amerlca would mosL llkely reverL Lo an
earller economy based on barLer" Lhe LM commlsslon's reporL on CrlLlcal naLlonal lnfrasLrucLure concluded earller Lhls year ln hls recenL
congresslonal LesLlmony raham revea|ed that Iran|an m|||tary [ourna|s LranslaLed by Lhe ClA aL hls
commlsslon's requesL "exp||c|t|y d|scuss a nuc|ear LM attack that wou|d grave|y harm the Un|ted
States" lurLhermore |f Iran |aunched |ts attack from a cargo sh|p p|y|ng the commerc|a| sea |anes
off the Last coast a scenarlo LhaL appears Lo have been LesLed durlng Lhe Casplan Sea LesLs
US |nvest|gators m|ght never determ|ne who was beh|nd the attack 8ecause of Lhe llmlLs of
nuclear forenslc Lechnology |t cou|d take months And Lo dlsgulse Lhelr Lraces Lhe lranlans could slmply declde Lo slnk
Lhe shlp LhaL had been used Lo launch lL Craham sald Several parLlclpanLs ln lasL weekend's conference ln uearborn Mlch hosLed by Lhe
conservaLlve ClaremonL lnsLlLuLe argued LhaL lranlan presldenL Mahmoud Ahmad|ne[ad was Lhlnklng abouL an LM aLLack
when he op|ned that "a wor|d w|thout Amer|ca |s conce|vab|e" ln May 2007 Lhen undersecreLary
of SLaLe !ohn 8ood Lold Congress LhaL Lhe uS lnLelllgence communlLy esLlmaLes LhaL Iran cou|d
deve|op an IC8M capab|e of h|tt|ng the cont|nenta| Un|ted States by 2 8ut Iran cou|d put a
Scud m|ss||e on board a cargo shlp and |aunch from Lhe commerclal sea lanes off Amerlca's coasLs
we|| before then
Successfu| str|ke causes LM devastates US commun|cat|ons and e|ectr|ca| power
wh|ch k|||s the economy and hurts g|oba| economy
Penry l Cooper 8oberL L fa|tzgraff !r (Penry l Cooper was chlef uS negoLlaLor aL Lhe Ceneva defense
and space Lalks wlLh Lhe SovleL unlon (19831989) and dlrecLor of SLraLeglc uefense lnlLlaLlve (19901993) 8oberL
L falLzgraff !r ls presldenL of Lhe lnsLlLuLe for lorelgn ollcy Analysls Shelby Cullom uavls rofessor of
lnLernaLlonal SecurlLy SLudles aL Lhe lleLcher School 1ufLs unlverslLy and cochalrman of Lhe lndependenL
Worklng Croup) uecember 14 2 400 AMA uangerous Cap ln Cur uefenses? An LM aLLack ls a Lerrlble
LhreaL buL counLerlng lL ls affordable" hLLp//wwwnaLlonalrevlewcom/arLlcles/233192/dangerousgapour
defenseshenryfcooperbrroberLlpfalLzgraff[r?page1 Accessed 9/3/11 L1
Ior severa| days |n ear|y November a ser|es of US government agenc|es were e|ther unab|e
or unw||||ng to exp|a|n what had produced a vapor tra|| LhaL had lllumlnaLed Lhe SouLhern Callfornla skles ubllc
speculaLlon abounded flrsL LhaL lL was a mlsslle Lhen LhaL lL was ln facL Lhe condensaLlon Lrall (conLrall) of a plane ConLroversy conLlnues ln Lhe
blogosphere and elsewhere 1he absence of a cogenL offlclal explanaLlon reveals a dangerous gap ln our defenses speclflcally ln our warnlng
sysLems Cur survelllance sysLems should be able Lo dlsLlngulsh a mlsslle from an alrplane lnsLanLaneously If the source of the
vapor tra|| had been a shortrange ba|||st|c m|ss||e |aunched from a frelghLer Lanker or conLalner shlp or even
a small vessel off our shores we shou|d have been ab|e to detect |t unamb|guous|y and shoot |t down
qu|ck|y Ia||ure to do so cou|d have produced |ong|ast|ng |oca| and g|oba| consequences
1he 2004 kepott of tbe commlssloo to Assess tbe 1bteot to tbe uolteJ 5totes ftom lecttomoqoetlc lolse (Ml) Attock observed LhaL a
s|ng|e nuc|ear weapon exp|oded at h|gh a|t|tude above the Un|ted States w||| |nteract w|th
the Larth's atmosphere |onosphere and magnet|c f|e|d and can produce a damag|ng
e|ectromagnet|c pu|se over hundreds of square m||es 1h|s cou|d shut down for an lndeflnlLe perlod
te|ecommun|cat|ons and e|ectr|ca|power gr|ds as we|| as the e|ectron|csdependent
transportat|on systems that support the "[ust|nt|me" market|ng manufactur|ng and
de||very of essent|a||y a|| commod|t|es upon wh|ch we are dependent It cou|d cut off water
and food supp||es to urban areas and create chaos that wou|d return the Un|ted States to
thcentury ||fe but w|thout the ||fe support then prov|ded by an |nd|genous agr|cu|tura|
soc|ety It cou|d a|so hobb|e bank|ng and re|ated bus|ness transact|ons wh|ch |n turn cou|d
extend the catastroph|c effects |nto the g|oba| economy D|sab||ng even one of our cr|t|ca|
|nfrastructure e|ements wou|d have severe consequences for others effects from wh|ch
advanced techno|og|ca||y |nterdependent soc|et|es m|ght not eas||y recover 1hls LhreaL ls noL merely
hypoLheLlcal Severa| years ago Iran tested a shortrange ba|||st|c m|ss||e |n a way that |nd|cated
an |nterest |n deve|op|ng an LM capab|||ty Lven LerrorlsLs mlghL purchase such mlsslles posslbly armed wlLh nuclear
weapons lurLhermore recenL reporLs LhaL lran has agreed Lo lnsLall balllsLlc mlsslles ln venezuela suggesL LhaL we could face a LhreaL vla
fuLure paLhways across Lhe Carlbbean 1hls could become a modern verslon of Lhe Cuban Mlsslle Crlsls ?eL no naLlonal sLraLegy addresses Lhls
LhreaL or underwrlLes a serlous program Lo counLer lLs effecLs Lhough such a capablllLy would be posslble as an lnexpenslve ad[uncL Lo
exlsLlng and planned mlsslledefense programs

US econom|c co||apse causes g|oba| nuc|ear war
8y AA8Cn IkILD8Lk and CA88lLL SCnCLNILLD Mr lrledberg ls a professor of pollLlcs and
lnLernaLlonal relaLlons aL rlnceLon unlverslLys Woodrow Wllson School Mr Schoenfeld senlor edlLor of
CommenLary ls a vlslLlng scholar aL Lhe WlLherspoon lnsLlLuLe ln rlnceLon n! CC1C8L8 21 28 1he uangers
of a ulmlnlshed Amerlca ln Lhe 1930s lsolaLlonlsm and proLecLlonlsm spurred Lhe rlse of fasclsm"
hLLp//onllnews[com/arLlcle/S8122433074012332371hLml
1hen there are Lhe dolorous consequences of a potent|a| co||apse of the wor|ds f|nanc|a|
arch|tecture lor decades now Amerlcans have en[oyed Lhe advanLages of belng aL Lhe cenLer of LhaL sysLem 1he worldwlde use of Lhe
dollar and Lhe sLablllLy of our economy among oLher Lhlngs made lL easler for us Lo run huge budgeL deflclLs as we counLed on forelgners Lo
plck up Lhe Lab by buylng dollardenomlnaLed asseLs as a safe haven Wlll Lhls be posslble ln Lhe fuLure?
Meanwhlle LradlLlonal forelgnpollcy challenges are mulLlplylng 1he threat from al Caeda and lslamlc terror|st
aff|||ates has not been ext|ngu|shed Iran and North korea are cont|nu|ng on the|r be|||cose
paths wh||e ak|stan and Afghan|stan are progress|ng smart|y down the road to chaos
kuss|as new m|||tancy and Ch|nas seem|ng|y re|ent|ess r|se a|so g|ve cause for concern If
Amer|ca now tr|es to pu|| back from the wor|d stage |t w||| |eave a dangerous power vacuum
1he sLablllzlng effecLs of our presence ln Asla our conLlnulng commlLmenL Lo Lurope and our poslLlon as defender
of lasL resorL for Mlddle LasL energy sources and supply llnes could all be placed aL rlsk In such a scenar|o
there are shades of the 3s when g|oba| trade and f|nance ground near|y to a ha|t Lhe
peaceful democracles falled Lo cooperaLe and aggresslve powers led by Lhe remorseless fanaLlcs who rose up on
Lhe cresL of economlc dlsasLer explolLed Lhelr dlvlslons 1oday we run Lhe rlsk LhaL rogue states may choose
to become ever more reck|ess w|th the|r nuc|ear toys [ust at our moment of max|mum
vu|nerab|||ty 1he aftershocks of the f|nanc|a| cr|s|s w||| a|most certa|n|y rock our pr|nc|pa|
strateg|c compet|tors even harder than they w||| rock us 1he dramaLlc free fall of Lhe kuss|an
stock market has demonstrated the frag|||ty of a state whose econom|c performance h|nges
on h|gh o|| pr|ces now drlven down by Lhe global slowdown Ch|na |s perhaps even more
frag||e lLs economlc growLh dependlng heavlly on forelgn lnvesLmenL and access Lo forelgn
markeLs 8oth w||| now be constr|cted |nf||ct|ng econom|c pa|n and perhaps even spark|ng
unrest ln a counLry where pollLlcal leglLlmacy resLs on progress ln Lhe long march Lo prosperlLy none of Lhls ls
good news lf Lhe auLhorlLarlan leaders of Lhese counLrles seek Lo dlverL aLLenLlon from lnLernal Lravalls wlLh
exLernal advenLures As for our democraLlc frlends Lhe presenL crlsls comes when many Luropean naLlons are
sLruggllng Lo deal wlLh decades of anemlc growLh scleroLlc governance and an lmpendlng demographlc crlsls
uesplLe lLs pasL dynamlsm !apan faces slmllar challenges lndla ls sLlll ln Lhe early sLages of lLs emergence as a
world economlc and geopollLlcal power WhaL does Lhls all mean? 1here |s no subst|tute for Amer|ca on
the wor|d stage 1he cholce we have before us ls beLween Lhe poLenLlally dlsasLrous effecLs of dlsengagemenL
and Lhe sLlff prlce Lag of conLlnued Amerlcan leadershlp


Cbservat|on 2 Israe|
Iran w||| str|ke Israe| successfu| nuc|ear use causes g|oba| nuc|ear war
!effrey 1 kuhner columnlsL aL 1he WashlngLon 1lmes and presldenL of Lhe Ldmund 8urke
lnsLlLuLe 10/4/200 1he comlng war wlLh lran
8eal quesLlon ls noL lf buL when" ubllshed ln WashlngLon 1lmes Lexls
War w|th Iran |s now |nev|tab|e 1he on|y quest|on |s W||| |t happen sooner or |ater? 1ehrans
recent m|ss||e tests and war games suggest that the apoca|ypt|c mu||ahs have reached the
same conc|us|on Iran |s on the march 1he|r med|umrange Shahab3 and Sa[[|| m|ss||es can
reach Israe| the ent|re M|dd|e Last and parts of Lurope 1ehran ls slowlng expandlng lLs reglonal sphere of
lnfluence lL has backed lnsurgency groups ln lraq whlch have kllled uS soldlers lL sponsors Pamas and Pezbollah lL has Lransformed Syrla
lnLo a pollLlcal vassal lL has forged an alllance wlLh Pugo Chavezs venezuela lL has purchased key alr defense sysLems from vladlmlr uLlns
8ussla Iran|an res|dent Mahmoud Ahmad|ne[ad |s a no|ocaustden|er and v|ru|ent ant|Sem|te
ne |s a ers|an Naz| strongman who vows to w|pe Israe| off the map Pe ls a revoluLlonary ShllLe Pe
belleves Lhe !ews musL be exLlngulshed ln order Lo usher Lhe comlng of Lhe ShllLe Messlah Lhe socalled Pldden lmam Ior years the
fasc|st theocracy has |nvested cons|derab|e resources |nto deve|op|ng a c|andest|ne nuc|ear
weapons program Mr Ahmad|ne[ad |ns|sts 1ehran on|y wants atom|c energy for peacefu|
purposes et he cannot answer one s|mp|e quest|on Why does a country w|th the wor|ds
second|argest natura| gas reserves and th|rd|argest o|| supp|y need domest|c nuc|ear power?
Moreover Mr Ahmadlne[ad ls a congenlLal llar Pe repeaLedly lnslsLs LhaL lran ls a democracy 8aLher lL ls a bruLal pollce sLaLe based on
rlgged elecLlons and Lhe LorLure and murder of dlssldenLs Pe clalms LhaL lran has no homosexuals and LhaL women are LreaLed falrly ln
facL Lhe lslamlsL reglme rouLlnely execuLes gays and sub[ugaLes women Pe says lran has noLhlng Lo hlde abouL lLs nuclear program 1he
WesL however recenLly dlscovered a hldden underground faclllLy near Lhe holy clLy of Com capable of produclng hlghly enrlched uranlum for
weaponsgrade nuclear maLerlal Slnce esLabllshmenL of Lhe lslamlc 8epubllc ln 1979 lran has been engaged ln an ldeologlcal sLruggle agalnsL
Lhe WesL Its two ma|n enem|es have been the Un|ted States (the reat Satan) and Israe| (the
L|tt|e Satan) Irom |ts |ncept|on 1ehran has sought to erect a wor|d Mus||m emp|re to
restore med|eva| Is|am|c c|v|||zat|on to |ts former dom|nance 1he reglme ls reacLlonary and ln a LwlsLed
manner even uLoplan Nuc|ear weapons are about more than atta|n|ng greatpower status 1hey are
the means to ach|eve the f|na| tr|umph of mess|an|c Sh||sm Iran |s on the verge of acqu|r|ng
the bomb 1he mullahs have reached Lhe polnL of no reLurn lsrael Lhe counLry LhaL has Lo llve ln LhaL dangerous parL of Lhe world
belleves Lhe mullahs are slx Lo nlne monLhs away from geLLlng lL nence res|dent Cbamas po||cy of d|p|omat|c
engagement comb|ned w|th poss|b|e sanct|ons |s doomed to fa|| It |s |neffect|ve na|ve and
reck|ess D|rect ta|ks ||ke those conducted |n eneva on 1hursday on|y g|ve Iran more t|me
Mr Cbama |s s|mp|y prov|d|ng the mu||ahs w|th the cover they need to f|n|sh comp|et|ng
the|r nuc|ear arsena| Wash|ngton now has two cho|ces Sanct|on an Amer|can or Israe||
m|||tary attack to destroy Irans nuc|ear fac|||t|es or a||ow 1ehran to go nuc|ear Elther
optlon means war A devastat|ng str|ke wou|d ||ke|y tr|gger a f|erce Iran|an response
|nc|ud|ng waves of su|c|de bombers target|ng Israe|| c|v|||ans and US troops |n Iraq Iran|an
m|ss||es wou|d pound Israe|| and maybe Luropean c|t|es V|ta| sh|pp|ng |anes |n the ers|an
u|f wou|d be d|srupted dr|v|ng the pr|ce of o|| to more than 53 a barre| p|ung|ng the
West |nto a poss|b|e depress|on Pezbollah sleeper cells mlghL be acLlvaLed wlLhln Lhe unlLed SLaLes unleashlng deadly
aLroclLles on Amerlcan soll et a||ow|ng a nuc|eararmed Iran |s ||ke|y to |ead to an even worse
reg|ona| war Cnce the ru||ng c|er|cs get the|r hands on nukes a m|||tary showdown w|th
Israe| |s |nev|tab|e 1hey wlll seek Lo desLroy Lhe !ewlsh sLaLe once and for all Ierusa|em w||| ex|stent|a| not stand
by and comm|t su|c|de It w||| reta||ate 1he resu|t wou|d be a nuc|ear holocausL |n the M|dd|e
Last 1he wlnds of war are blowlng across Lhe erslan Culf lollowlng Lhls summers crackdown on prodemocracy proLesLers Lhe lranlan
reglme ls weak desperaLe and fracLurlng Wash|ngton shou|d v|gorous|y pursue a po||cy of |nterna| reg|me
change otherw|se 1ehran w||| drag the M|dd|e Last |nto a certa|n conf|agrat|on that cou|d
|ead to the s|aughter of m||||ons lnsLead Mr Cbama has ruled ouL meddllng ln lrans lnLernal affalrs n|s peaceat
anycost d|p|omacy guarantees m|||tary conf||ct It |s no |onger a quest|on of |f th|s w|||
happen but when and on whose terms Mr Cbama |s s|eepwa|k|ng |nto d|saster Amer|ca
and the M|dd|e Last w||| pay the pr|ce
Content|on 3 Ch|na
Ch|na |s on path to beat US |n space race deve|op|ng ant|sate|||te capab|||t|es that
threaten space assets
Adams (!onaLhan Chlna SpeclallsL aL CSM Chlna ls on paLh Lo mlllLarlzaLlon of space" CcLober 28
hLLp//wwwcsmonlLorcom/World/AslaSouLhCenLral/2010/1028/ChlnalsonpaLhLomlllLarlzaLlonofspace)
Ch|na |ooks set to pu|| ahead |n the Aslan space race Lo Lhe moon puLLlng a spacecrafL lnLo lunar orblL CcL 6 ln a
preparaLory mlsslon for an unmanned moon landlng ln Lwo or Lhree years Chlnese englneers wlll maneuver Lhe crafL lnLo an exLremely low
orblL 93 mlles above Lhe moons surface so lL can Lake hlghresoluLlon phoLos of a posslble landlng slLe 8aslcally Chlna ls looklng for a good
parklng space for a moon lander ln a lessknown area of Lhe moon known as Lhe 8ay of 8alnbows 1he mlsslon called Change 2 afLer a
herolne from Chlnese folklore who goes Lo Lhe moon wlLh a rabblL hlghllghLs Chlnas rapldly growlng Lechnologlcal prowess as well as lLs keen
deslre for presLlge on Lhe world sLage lf successful lL wlll puL Chlna a nose ahead of lLs Aslan rlvals wlLh slmllar lunar amblLlons lndla and
!apan and slgnal a cha||enge to the Amer|can posLcoldwar dom|nat|on |n space 1he Aslan space race Compared
wlLh Lhe Amerlcan and SovleL mad dashes lnLo space ln Lhe laLe 1930s and 60s Asla ls Laklng lLs Llme runnlng a maraLhon noL a sprlnL All of
Lhese counLrles wlLnessed Lhe cold war and whaL led Lo Lhe desLrucLlon of Lhe uSS8 says A[ey Lele an experL on Aslan space programs aL Lhe
lnsLlLuLe for uefense SLudles and Analysls ln new uelhl referrlng Lo Lhe mlllLary and space spendlng LhaL helped hasLen Lhe decllne of Lhe
SovleL reglme 1hey undersLand Lhe value of money and lnvesLmenL and Lhey are golng as per Lhe pace whlch Lhey can go 8uL he
acknowledged Chlnas edge over lndla 1hey sLarLed earller and Lheyre ahead of us aL Lhls Llme he says lndla puL Lhe Chandrayaan 1
spacecrafL lnLo lunar orblL ln 2008 a mlsslon wlLh a nASA payload LhaL helped conflrm Lhe presence of waLer on Lhe moon lL plans a moon
landlng ln a few years Llme and a manned mlsslon as early as 2020 roughly Lhe same LlmeLable as Chlna !apan ls also mulllng a moonshoL
and has branched ouL lnLo oLher space exploraLlon such as Lhe recenL Payabusa mlsslon Lo an asLerold lLs lasL lunar orblLer shared Lhe moon
wlLh Chlnas flrsL ln 2007 8oLh !apans and lndlas recenL mlsslons have been plagued by gllLches and Lechnlcal problems however whlle
Chlnas have gone relaLlvely smooLhly Mr Lele sald Lhe mosL slgnlflcanL aspecL of Lhe Change 2 mlsslon was Lhe aLLempL aL a 93mllehlgh
orblL a dlfflculL feaL lndlas own lunar orblLer descended Lo abouL 60 mlles ln 2008 he sald buL was forced Lo reLurn Lo a more sLable 123
mllehlgh orblL A low orblL wlll allow for beLLer scouLlng of fuLure landlng slLes sald Lele 1hey Lhe Chlnese wlll requlre huge amounLs of
daLa on landlng grounds sald Lele A moon landlng hasnL been aLLempLed slnce Lhe cold war uurlng Lhe famed 1969 Apollo 11 manned
mlsslon Lo Lhe moon asLronauL nell ArmsLrong had Lo Lake conLrol of Lhe lander ln Lhe lasL momenLs of descenL Lo avold large moon boulders
sLrewn around Lhe landlng slLe Chlna hopes Lo avold any such lasLmlnuLe surprlses wlLh beLLer reconnalssance phoLos whlch would allow
Lhem Lo see moon feaLures such as rocks as small as onemeLer across accordlng Lo Chlnese medla ls Chlnas space exploraLlon a mlllLary
sLraLegy? Meanwhlle some have polnLed ouL LhaL Chlnas moonshoL llke all space programs has valuable poLenLlal mlllLary
offshooLs Chlnas space program ls conLrolled by the eoples LlberaLlon Army (LA) whlch |s sLeadlly galnlng experlence ln
remoLe communlcaLlon and measuremenL m|ss||e techno|ogy and ant|sate|||te warfare Lhrough mlsslons llke Change
2 1he securlLy lmpllcaLlons of Chlnas space program are noL losL on lndla !apan or Lhe unlLed SLaLes 1he enLagon noLes LhaL Ch|na
Lhrough lLs space program |s exp|or|ng ways to exp|o|t the US m|||tarys dependence on space |n a
conf||ct scenar|o for examp|e knock|ng out US sate|||tes ln Lhe openlng hours of a crlsls over 1alwan Ch|na
|s deve|op|ng the ab|||ty to attack an adversarys space assets acce|erat|ng the m|||tar|zat|on
of space Lhe enLagon sald ln lLs laLesL annual reporL Lo Congress on Chlnas mlllLary power LA wr|t|ngs emphas|ze the
necess|ty of destroy|ng damaglng and lnLerferlng wlLh the enemys reconnalssance and communlcaLlons sate|||tes
More broadly some ln Lhe uS see Chlnas moon program as evldence LhaL lL has a longrange sLraLeglc vlew LhaLs lacklng ln WashlngLon 1he
uS has a reconnalssance saLelllLe ln lunar orblL now buL resldenL Cbama appears Lo have puL off Lhe noLlon of a manned reLurn Lo Lhe moon
WlLh Chlna slowly buL surely laylng Lhe groundwork for a longLerm lunar presence some fear the US may one day f|nd |tse|f
|apped llke Lhe Lale of Lhe LorLolse and Lhe hare says Dean Cheng an experL on Chlnas space program aL Lhe PerlLage
loundaLlon ln WashlngLon I have to wonder whether the Un|ted States concerned wlLh far more LerresLrlal lssues
and wlLh lLs budgeL consLralnLs |s go|ng to dec|de to make slmllarly perslsLenL |nvestments to susta|n |ts |ead |n
space

Ch|nese ASA1S poses a m|||tar|zed space threat ASA1 |s a weapon
Lrlk u|g|ey Alr Command and SLaff Coll Maxwell afb al Aprll 2 CeoollLlcal ConslderaLlons Lo Chlnas 8lse ln Space ower"
hLLp//handledLlcmll/1002/AuA339644
Cn 11 !anuary 2007 Ch|na demonstrated groundbased offens|ve anLlsaLelllLe (ASA1) capab|||ty by
shoot|ng down one of |ts lnacLlve weaLher sate|||tes No advance not|ce of Lhe LesL was g|ven nor has
Ch|na conv|nc|ng|y exp|a|ned the |ntent|on of Lhe LesL oLher Lhan LhaL lL was for peaceful purposes 1h|s act
needs to serve as a wakeup ca|| for the US acknow|edg|ng Ch|na's r|se |n m|||tary space
power uurlng a uec 2007 reporL Lo Congress !effrey Logan sLaLed LhaL alLhough Lhe ASA1 test may have been a sLraLeglc
demonsLraLlon of Chlnese deLerrence others may see |t as a nefar|ous d|sp|ay of Ch|na's space capab|||t|es
and a s|gn that Ch|na has more amb|t|ous ob[ect|ves |n space 1he groundbased ASA1 LesL by lLself may have
proved Lo be a benlgn space evenL however when comb|ned w|th prev|ous statements of space
m|||tar|zat|on |t strengthens the argument that Ch|na may be postur|ng |tse|f more strong|y
for space dom|nance |n the|r reg|on 1wo opensource examples are worLh menLlonlng llrsL Chlna openly declared Lhe
developmenL of paraslLlc saLelllLes as an addlLlonal meLhod Lo deploy an ASA1 weapon Accordlng Lo Lhe laLesL Lhlnklng among Chlnese
defense professlonals ASA1s are |eg|t|mate weapons
Space 8MD so|ves ASA1s
Poward k|e|nberg member of Lhe graduaLe faculLy of Lhe ueparLmenL of ubllc lnLernaLlonal Affalrs aL unlverslLy of norLh Carollna
WllmlngLon Aprll 2 uS Army lleld ArLlllery AssoclaLlon A Clobal Mlsslle uefense neLwork 1erresLrlal PlghLnergy Lasers and
Aerospace Mlrrors"
lorLunaLely Lhls recenLly revealed realworld ASA1 LhreaL also brlngs a sllver llnlng ln lL As ls Lhe case wlLh balllsLlc mlsslles S88MD
weapons can a|so defend aga|nst ASA1s A|| ASA1s aL leasL wheLher dlrecLascenL or coorblLlng must f|rst be
|aunched from the Larths surface regard|ess of the |aunch p|atform and must f|rst go
through a boost phase And s|nce S88MD prov|des the s|ng|e best way to stop any such m|ss||e
attack from tak|ng p|ace 8oberL 8uLLerworLh suggesLs ln hls arLlcle Assurlng Space SupporL uesplLe ASA1s |t wou|d a|so
prov|de the s|ng|e best way to defend aga|nst ASA1 attacks same mlsslon dlfferenL payload lnslde Lhe LhreaL
mlsslle S88MDs cou|d a|so |ntercept ASA1s |n other phases of the|r f||ght aL leasL wlLhln lower LarLh orblL
lor lnsLance Lhe Mlsslle uefense Agencys CMu can lnLercepL lC8M warheads aL Lhe peak of Lhelr Lra[ecLorles some 1 100 km (300 mlles) or
so Slmllarly an ASA1 (dlrecLascenL or coorblLlng) on Lermlnal approach Lowards a saLelllLe ln LLC would presenL a LargeL of comparable slze
denslLy and veloclLy as a mldcourse lC8M warhead (lf noL even larger) aL a slmllar alLlLude and posslbly slmllar speed and Lra[ecLory As a
resulL Lhe ASA1 cou|d a|so be targeted and |ntercepted by a m|dcourse defensecapab|e S88MD
weapon |n add|t|on to |ts pr|mary ro|e of boostphase defense g|v|ng a secondchance
round of shots w|th wh|ch to try to stop any ASA1
Cbservat|on US S|no War
ASA1 attacks qu|ck|y esca|ate causes mass|ve US reta||at|on
Ashley 1e|||s Senlor AssoclaLe [ Carnegle 2 Senlor AssoclaLe [ Carnegle Survlval AuLumn Chlna's MlllLary Space SLraLegy"
llnally Lhe grow|ng Ch|nese capab|||ty for space warfare lmplles LhaL a fuLure confllcL ln Lhe 1alwan SLralL wou|d
enta|| ser|ous deterrence and cr|s|s |nstab|||t|es If such a c|ash were to compe| 8e|[|ng to
attack US space systems aL Lhe beglnnlng of a war the very prospect of such a 'space ear| narbor'4
cou|d ln Lurn provoke the Un|ted States to contemp|ate preempt|ve attacks or horlzonLal escalaLlon on
Lhe Chlnese malnland Such outcomes wou|d be part|cu|ar|y ||ke|y ln a confllcL ln Lhe nexL decade before WashlngLon
has Lhe opporLunlLy Lo lnvesL fully ln redundanL space capablllLles Already uS SLraLeglc Command offlclals have publlcly slgnalled LhaL
convenLlonally armed 1rldenL submarlne launched balllsLlc mlsslles would be approprlaLe weapons for execuLlng Lhe prompL sLrlkes LhaL mlghL
become necessary ln such a conLlngency93 Such attacks even lf employlng only convenLlonal warheads on space launch slLes sensor
nodes and command and conLrol lnsLallaLlons on Lhe Chlnese malnland cou|d we|| be perce|ved as a precursor to an
a||out war It wou|d be d|ff|cu|t for a|| s|des to ||m|t the |ntens|f|cat|on of such a conf||ct even
w|thout the added comp||cat|ons of acc|dents and further m|spercept|on96
1he |mpact |s USS|no nuc|ear war
Ceoffrey Iorden hu and 8esearch AssoclaLe [ Ml1 11028 hu and 8esearch AssoclaLe aL Ml1 Pow Chlna Loses Lhe Comlng
Space War (L 2)" hLLp//wwwwlredcom/dangerroom/2008/01/lnsldeLhech1/
1he UnlLed SLaLes has f|ve sate|||tes |n geosLaLlonary orb|t that detect m|ss||e |aunches uslng Lhe heaL released
from Lhelr exhausL plumes 1hese sate|||tes are pr|mar||y used to a|ert US nuc|ear forces to masslve nuc|ear
attacks on Lhe homeland Powever ln recenL years Lhey have played an lncreaslng role ln convenLlonal confllcLs such as boLh Culf Wars
by cuelng LacLlcal mlsslle defenses llke Lhe aLrloL mlsslle defense sysLems LhaL galned fame ln Lhelr engagemenLs wlLh Saddam's SCuu mlsslles
8ecause of Lhls new use Ch|na m|ght f|nd |t usefu| to attack them w|th ASA1s Slnce Lhere are only flve of Lhem
Ch|na cou|d destroy the ent|re conste||at|on buL aL Lhe cosL of dlverLlng some of Lhe few avallable deepspace ASA1s
from oLher LargeLs Cf course Ch|na wou|d not have to attack a|| f|ve but cou|d ||m|t |ts attack to the
three that s|mu|taneous|y v|ew the 1a|wan Stra|ts area lf Chlna dld declde Lo desLroy Lhese early warnlng
saLelllLes lL would greaLly reduce Lhe area covered by uS mlsslle defenses ln 1alwan agalnsL SCuu and longer range mlsslles 1hls ls because
Lhe area covered by a LheaLer mlsslle defense sysLem ls hlghly dependenL on Lhe warnlng Llme lL has Lhe greaLer Lhe warnlng Llme Lhe more
effecLlve Lhe mlsslle defense sysLem's radar ls 1hus a aLrloL baLLery whlch mlghL ordlnarlly cover Lhe caplLal of 1alwan could be reduced Lo
[usL defendlng Lhe mlllLary base lL was sLaLloned aL Some analysLs belleve LhaL Ch|na wou|d ga|n a tremendous
propaganda coup by hav|ng a s|ng|e m|ss||e make |t through US defenses and thus m|ght
cons|der th|s use of |ts deepspace ASA1s h|gh|y worthwh||e even |f |t cou|d not |ncrease the
probab|||ty of destroy|ng m|||tary targets Cn Lhe oLher hand Ch|na wou|d run a tremendous r|sk of
the US be||ev|ng |t was under a more genera| nuc|ear attack |f Ch|na d|d destroy these ear|y
warn|ng sate|||tes 1hroughouL Lhe hlsLory of Lhe Cold War Lhe uS has had a pollcy of only launchlng a reLallaLory" nuclear sLrlke lf
an lncomlng aLLack ls deLecLed by boLh early warnlng saLelllLes and radars W|thout the space |eg of the ear|y warn|ng
system Lhe odds of the US m|s|nterpret|ng some m|ss||e |aunch that |t detected w|th radar as a
nuc|ear attack wou|d be great|y |ncreased even |f the US d|d not v|ew the sate|||te destruct|on
as a suff|c|ent|y threaten|ng attack a|| by themse|ves Such a m|s|nterpretat|on |s not w|thout
precedent ln 1993 kuss|a's ear|y warn|ng radars v|ewed a NASA sound|ng rocket |aunch off the
coast of Norway and f|agged |t as a poss|b|e 1r|dent m|ss||e |aunch Many ana|ysts be||eve that
kuss|a was ab|e to not respond on|y because |t had a conste||at|on of funct|on|ng ear|y
warn|ng sate|||tes Any Ch|nese attacks on US ear|y warn|ng sate|||tes wou|d r|sk boLh lnLenLlonal and
mlsLaken escalaLlon of Lhe confllcL lnLo a nuc|ear war wlLhouL a clear mlllLary goal
Cbservat|on 2 1a|wan
1a|wan cr|s|s |nev|tab|e
uavld A Sh|apak Senlor lnLernaLlonal ollcy AnalysL [ 8Anu eL al 2 A CuesLlon of 8alance" 8Anu
hLLp//wwwrandorg/pubs/monographs/2009/8Anu_MC888pdf
1he facLors descrlbed ln Lhls chapLer presenL someLhlng of a mlxed bag and Lhelr collecLlve lmpacL ln Lerms of Lhe fuLure sLablllLy of Lhe
crosssLralL relaLlonshlp ls somewhaL unpredlcLable 8uL we belleve LhaL ln general the "tense stab|||ty" that character|zed
the crossstra|t confrontat|on prlor Lo Lhe mld1990s |s suffer|ng from gradua| eros|on 1he debaLe concernlng
soverelgnLy over 1alwan has evolved dramaLlcally 1oday th|s d|spute p|ts a 8e|[|ng governmenL that |ns|sts there |s
on|y one Ch|na of whlch 1alwan ls a parL aga|nst a 1a|wan that sLlll reLalns many formal Lrapplngs of belng a Chlnese sLaLe
buL lncreas lngly deve|ops an |ndependent nat|ona| |dent|ty noLwlLhsLandlng Lhe collapse of voLer supporL for Lhe u
nearly all slgnlflcanL pollLlcal parLles ln 1alwan now accepL Lhe noLlon LhaL any fuLure arrangemenL wlLh Chlna musL recelve Lhe separaLe
approval of 1alwan's 23 mllllon voLers Ior 8e|[|ng the emerg|ng 1a|wanese nat|ona| |dent|ty ra|ses the
profound|y worr|some prospect that |f un|f|cat|on |s de|ayed for too |ong the 1a|wanese
peop|e w||| be unw||||ng to accept any arrangement LhaL subsumes Lhem wlLhln a Chlnese" sLaLe or confederaLlon
Cradual changes along Lhese llnes seem unllkely Lo provlde Lhe spark for confllcL buL they cou|d prov|de a backdrop for
cr|s|s |f 8e|[|ng conc|udes that |ongterm trends are turn|ng powerfu||y aga|nst them 1he rapldly
growlng crosssLralL economlc relaLlonshlp means LhaL 8el[lng can now lnfllcL slgnlflcanL paln on 1alwan lf lL so chooses 8uL Lo daLe 8el[lng has
had dlfflculLy LranslaLlng Lhls economlc leverage lnLo meanlngful pollLlcal resulLs oLher Lhan as a devlce for slgnallng lLs lrrlLaLlon wlLh 1alpel If
8e|[|ng |oses hope LhaL economlc and soclal maneuvers can slow or reverse forces on 1alwan LhaL run aLhwarL of aL leasL evenLual
reunlflcaLon the attract|veness |n a cr|s|s of m|||tary opt|ons |s ||ke|y to |ncrease In 1a|wan
meanwhlle advocaLes of greaLer lndependence fear that grow|ng econom|c t|es w||| mean "t|me |s not on
the|r s|de" and they may fee| the need to push more provocat|ve measures when pollLlcal clrcumsLances
glve Lhem Lhe chance 8el[lng's anger aL whaL lL saw as Chen Shulblan's provocaLlve behavlor encouraged a dangerous shlfL ln Lhe 8C's red
llnes" for LhreaLenlng force agalnsL 1alwan 8el[lng sees Chen and hls allles as paLhologlcal envelopepushers" consLanLly looklng for ways Lo
promoLe Lhe lsland's lndependence and Lhe percelved need Lo keep Chen boxed ln caused Chlna Lo shlfL away from Lhe four clear relaLlvely
easyLo follow red llnes" LhaL lL warned 1alwan noL Lo cross ln Lhe pasL lnsLead Chlna has gravlLaLed Loward more vague amblguous red
areas" and lL ls more llkely Lo deflne (or redeflne) Lhese slLuaLlonally and reacLlvely durlng perlods of crlsls 1hls amb|gu|ty and
|mprov|sat|on cou|d become dangerous sources of m|spercept|on dur|ng a cr|s|s 1he comblnaLlon of
more Lhan a decade of kC m|||tary modern|zat|on and flaL 1alwanese defense spendlng have Lransformed Lhe balance
across Lhe sLralL away from one LhaL had long favored 1alwan ln Lhe heaL of any fuLure crosssLralL crlsls Lhls shlfL ln Lhe percelved balance of
forces seems to remove an |mportant |mped|ment to Ch|nese use of force
If the US |oses sate|||tes to Ch|nese ASA1 1a|wan conf||ct w||| exp|ode |nto USCh|na
war
lan Laston 8esearch lellow aL Lhe 2049 ro[ecL lnsLlLuLe 200
1he CreaL Came ln Space Chlna's Lvolvlng ASA1Weapons rograms and 1helr
lmpllcaLlons for luLure uS SLraLegy"
hLLp//wwwpro[ecL2049neL/documenLs/chlna_asaL_weapons_Lhe_greaL_game_ln_space
Accessed 9/3/11 L1
Many speclallsLs also argue LhaL aslde from Lhe uS mlllLary dependency on orblLal space Lhe uS economy and ln Lurn much of Lhe world
economy ls also rapldly becomlng dependenL on spacebased sysLems 1hey poslL LhaL ln effecL Lhe uS ls now a space farlng" naLlon whose
very way of llfe ls Lled Lo Lhe myrlad capablllLles provlded by Lhe orblLal space medlum War games conducLed as parL of uS naLlonal securlLy
proLocols such as Lhe ArmyAfLernexL navy Clobal and Alr lorce Clobal LngagemenL serles Space Came 2 and Schrlever 1 2 as well as Lhe
prlvaLely conducLed uLAuSA1S" war games conducLed from Lhe laLe 1990s and Lhe early 2000s conflrm Lhls vlew Accordlng Lo some space
experLs who were lnLlmaLely lnvolved wlLh Lhe war games Lhe exerclses exposed a crlLlcal naLlonal Achllles heel LhaL pollLlclans economlsLs
and corporaLe CLCs have largely lgnoredlosses ln space can qulckly affecL Lhe economlc soclal and naLlonal securlLy fabrlc noL only of Lhe
unlLed SLaLes buL of Lhe enLlre world" 1hese experts furLher speculaLe that "|arge m|||tary powers" such as
the Un|ted States cou|d "be he|d hostage by the unknowns |nherent |n a new k|nd of war"36
1hese concerns are d|rect|y ||nked w|th Ch|na's ASA1 weapons and the|r potent|a|
app||cab|||ty |n any future USS|no conf||ct A more recenL war game aclflc vlslon" conducLed by
aclflc Alr lorces (ACAl) underscored the vu|nerab|||ty of the unprotected commerc|a|
commun|cat|on sate|||te channe|s on whlch Lhe Alr lorce relles as we|| as |ts cyber and radar
vu|nerab|||t|es to Ch|nese attack37 Any poss|b|e US m|||tary cont|ngency around the 1a|wan
Stra|t wou|d requ|re secure sate|||tes as the US becomes ever more re||ant upon |ts space
systems Moreover reconna|ssance sate|||tes are thought to ||m|t the r|sk |nherent |n the
bu||dup of forces that both the kC and the US cou|d be expected to dep|oy to the reg|on |n
the event of a cr|s|s nowever |f the US was b||nded as the resu|t of a preempt|ve Ch|nese
ASA1 attack the conf||ct cou|d qu|ck|y esca|ate to a dangerous |eve| Accord|ng to two experts
on Lhe sub[ecL "|f there |s a greatpower war |n the twentyf|rst century our crysta| ba|| says
that |t w||| be between the Un|ted States and Ch|na over 1a|wan w|th a very ser|ous potent|a|
for a horr|b|e esca|atory process"38 1h|s underscores the grav|ty of the top|c as we|| as the
negat|ve |mpact the Ch|nese sh|ft towards f|e|d|ng ASA1 weapons cou|d have
Ch|naUS war over 1a|wan causes ext|nct|on
Stra|ts 1|mes (Slngapore) !une 23 2 no one galns ln war over 1alwan
1PL hlghlnLenslLy scenarlo posLulaLes a crosssLralL war escalaLlng lnLo a fullscale war between the US and Ch|na lf
WashlngLon were Lo conclude LhaL spllLLlng Chlna would beLLer serve lLs naLlonal lnLeresLs Lhen a fullscale war becomes unavoldableConfllcL
on such a scale wou|d embro|| other countr|es far and near and horror of horrors ra|se the poss|b|||ty of
a nuc|ear war 8el[lng has already Lold Lhe uS and !apan prlvaLely LhaL lL conslders any counLry provldlng bases and loglsLlcs supporL Lo
any uS forces aLLacklng Chlna as belllgerenL parLles open Lo lLs reLallaLlon ln Lhe reglon Lhls means SouLh korea !apan Lhe hlllpplnes and Lo
a lesser exLenL Slngapore lf Chlna were Lo reLallaLe east As|a w||| be set on f|re And Lhe conflagraLlon may noL end Lhere as
opportun|st|c powers e|sewhere may try to overturn the ex|st|ng wor|d order W|th the US
d|stracted kuss|a may seek to redef|ne Luropes pollLlcal |andscape 1he balance of power ln Lhe Mlddle LasL
may be slmllarly upseL by Lhe llkes of lraq ln souLh Asla host|||t|es between Ind|a and ak|stan each armed w|th |ts
own nuc|ear arsena| cou|d enter a new and dangerous phase Wlll a fullscale SlnouS war lead Lo a nuclear
war? Accordlng Lo Ceneral MaLLhew 8ldgeway commander of Lhe uS LlghLh Army whlch foughL agalnsL Lhe Chlnese ln Lhe korean War Lhe uS
had aL Lhe Llme LhoughL of uslng nuclear weapons agalnsL Chlna Lo save Lhe uS from mlllLary defeaL ln hls book 1he korean War a personal
accounL of Lhe mlllLary and pollLlcal aspecLs of Lhe confllcL and lLs lmpllcaLlons on fuLure uS forelgn pollcy Cen 8ldgeway sald LhaL uS was
confronLed wlLh Lwo cholces ln korea Lruce or a broadened war whlch could have led Lo Lhe use of nuclear weapons lf Lhe uS had Lo resorL Lo
nuclear weaponry Lo defeaL Chlna long before Lhe laLLer acqulred a slmllar capablllLy there |s ||tt|e hope of w|nn|ng a war
aga|nst Ch|na 30 years laLer short of us|ng nuc|ear weapons 1he uS esLlmaLes LhaL Chlna possesses abouL 20 nuclear
warheads LhaL can desLroy ma[or Amerlcan clLles 8e|[|ng a|so seems prepared to go for the nuc|ear opt|on A
Chlnese mlllLary offlcer dlsclosed recenLly LhaL 8el[lng was conslderlng a revlew of lLs non flrsL use prlnclple regardlng nuclear weapons
Ma[orCeneral an Zhangqlang presldenL of Lhe mlllLaryfunded lnsLlLuLe for SLraLeglc SLudles Lold a gaLherlng aL Lhe Woodrow Wllson
lnLernaLlonal CenLre for Scholars ln WashlngLon LhaL alLhough Lhe governmenL sLlll ablded by LhaL prlnclple Lhere were sLrong pressures from
Lhe mlllLary Lo drop lL Pe sald mlllLary leaders consldered Lhe use of nuclear weapons mandaLory lf Lhe counLry rlsked dlsmembermenL as a
resulL of forelgn lnLervenLlon Cen 8ldgeway sald LhaL shou|d that come to pass we wou|d see the destruct|on
of c|v|||sat|on

Content|on 4 So|vency
Space based NMD |s key to d|ssuad|ng g|oba| r|va|s prov|des comprehens|ve defense
system
8oberL fa|tzgraff et a| hu and rofessor of lnL SecurlLy SLudles [ 1ufLs and resldenL [ Lhe llA 2 8eporL of Lhe
lndependenL Worklng Croup on Mlsslle uefense Lhe Space 8elaLlonshlp Lhe 1wenLyllrsL CenLury" repared by Lhe lnsLlLuLe for lorelgn
ollcy Analysls" hLLps//wwwclaremonLorg/reposlLory/docLlb/200901291_lwg2009pdf
1here ls ample reason for concern 1he LhreaL envlronmenL confronLlng Lhe unlLed SLaLes ln Lhe LwenLyflrsL cenLury dlffers fundamenLally from
LhaL of Lhe Cold War era An unprecedented number of lnLernaLlonal actors have now acqu|red or are
seek|ng Lo acqulre ba|||st|c m|ss||es and weapons of mass desLrucLlon 8ogue sLaLes chlef among Lhem North korea
and Iran p|ace a prem|um on Lhe acqulslLlon of nuc|ear chem|ca| and b|o|og|ca| weapons and Lhe
means to de||ver them and these states are mov|ng rap|d|y toward that goa| kuss|a and
Ch|na LradlLlonal compeLlLors of Lhe unlLed SLaLes cont|nue to expand the range and soph|st|cat|on of the|r
strateg|c arsena|s aL a Llme when Lhe unlLed SLaLes debaLes deep reducLlons ln lLs sLraLeglc nuclear forces beyond Lhose already made
slnce Lhe end of Lhe Cold War and has no currenL modernlzaLlon program WlLh a new admlnlsLraLlon furLhermore Lhe fuLure developmenL of
even our llmlLed mlsslle defense sysLem ls ln quesLlon lurLhermore a number of asymmetr|c threats |nc|ud|ng Lhe posslblllLy
of weapons of mass desLrucLlon (WMD) acqu|s|t|on by terror|st groups or Lhe devastat|on of Amer|can
cr|t|ca| |nfrastructure as a resu|t of elecLromagneLlc pulse (LM) now pose a d|rect cha||enge to the
safety and secur|ty of the UnlLed SLaLes Moreover Lhe number and sophlsLlcaLlon of Lhese LhreaLs are evolvlng aL a pace LhaL no
longer allows Lhe luxury of long lead Llmes for Lhe developmenL and deploymenL of defenses ln order to address these lncreaslngly
complex and mulLlfaceLed dangers the UnlLed SLaLes must move well beyond Lhe lnlLlal mlsslle defense deploymenLs of recenL years
Lo dep|oy a system capab|e of comprehens|ve|y protect|ng the Amer|can home|and as well as uS
overseas forces and allles from Lhe LhreaL of balllsLlc mlsslle aLLack uS defenses also must be able Lo d|ssuade wou|dbe
m|ss||e possessors from cost|y |nvestments |n m|ss||e techno|og|es and Lo deter future
adversar|es from confront|ng the UnlLed SLaLes w|th WMD or balllsLlc mlsslles Amer|ca's sLraLeglc ob[ect|ve
shou|d be to make |t |mposs|b|e for any adversary to |nf|uence US dec|s|on mak|ng ln Llmes of
confllcL Lhrough Lhe use of balllsLlc mlsslles or WMu blackmall based on Lhe LhreaL Lo use such capablllLles 1hese pr|or|t|es
necess|tate Lhe deploymenL of a system capab|e of constant defense aga|nst a wlde range of LhreaLs ln a||
phases of f||ght boost m|dcourse and term|na| A |ayered system encompass|ng ground
based (area and LheaLer anLlmlsslle asseLs) and seabased capab|||t|es can prov|de mu|t|p|e opportun|t|es
to destroy |ncom|ng m|ss||es ln varlous phases of fllghL truly global capablllty however cannot be
ach|eved w|thout a m|ss||e defense arch|tecture |ncorporat|ng |nterd|ct|on capab|||t|es |n
space as one of |ts key operaLlonal e|ements ln Lhe LwenLyflrsL cenLury space has replaced Lhe seas as Lhe ulLlmaLe fronLler
for commerce Lechnology and naLlonal securlLy Spacebased m|ss||e defense affords max|mum opportun|t|es
for |ntercept|on |n boost phase before rocket boosters have re|eased warheads and decoys or
penetrat|on a|ds 1he beneflLs of spacebased defense are manlfold 1he dep|oyment of a robusL global mlsslle defense LhaL
lncludes spacebased |nterd|ct|on capab|||t|es w||| make more expens|ve and therefore |ess
attract|ve the fore|gn deve|opment of offens|ve ba|||st|c m|ss||e techno|og|es needed to
overcome |t lndeed Lhe endurlng lesson of Lhe A8M 1reaLy era ls LhaL the absence of defenses rather than the|r
presence empowers the deve|opment of offens|ve techno|og|es LhaL can LhreaLen Amerlcan securlLy and Lhe
llves of Amerlcan clLlzens And access Lo space as well as space conLrol ls key Lo fuLure uS efforLs Lo provlde dlslncenLlves Lo an array of acLors
seeklng such power
1errestr|a| m|ss||e defense can't ach|eve comprehens|ve defense ||m|ted mob|||ty and
vu|nerab|||ty
Lambak|s SLeve ls a Senlor AnalysL and Managlng LdlLor aL ComparaLlve SLraLegy (Poover lnsLlLuLlon Mlsslle uefense lrom Space"
lebruary/March 2007 hLLp//wwwgeesorg/documenLos/uocumen02177pdf
Cver the |ong term w||| the current|y conf|gured and p|anned terrestr|a|based m|ss||e
defense system be suff|c|ent to dea| w|th |ncreas|ng|y soph|st|cated countermeasures and
sh|ft|ng threats? 1he answer I belleve ls no 1he sysLem belng deployed Loday ls flxed flrmly Lo LarLh WheLher Lhey are sea
based or landbased weapons or even Lhe boosLengagemenL Alrborne Laser we are essenLlally Lalklng abouL LerresLrlal plaLforms for baslng
weapons As we move lnLo Lhe fuLure Lhere are plans Lo make Lhose plaLforms Lhe sensors and lnLercepLors more moblle Why? 8ecause
greater mob|||ty can prov|de greater f|ex|b|||ty for dea||ng w|th unpred|cted threats MoblllLy also
allows a commander Lo concenLraLe hls forces or dlsperse Lhem as Lhe requlremenLs of Lhe baLLlefleld demand lL maLLers where we locaLe
sensors and lnLercepLors lL ls lmporLanL Lo puL sensors close Lo Lhe LhreaL because Lhey wlll be ln poslLlon Lo provlde crlLlcal cuelng and
Lracklng daLa early ln a balllsLlc mlsslle's fllghL 1hese daLa can help enlarge Lhe engagemenL baLLle space 1o perform boostphase
|ntercept from the ground or sea the weapons p|atforms must be very near the target |aunch
s|te 1hese LerresLrlal boosLphase weapons can defend many LargeLs around Lhe globe by coverlng a slngle launch slLe 1he
d|sadvantage of such bas|ng a dlsadvanLage LhaL ls mlLlgaLed somewhaL wlLh a moblle plaLform llke Lhe Alrborne Laser |s
that the threat |aunch s|te or reg|on must be pred|cted 1erresLrlalbased weapons LhaL engage ln space ln Lhe
mlddle or mldcourse of a mlsslle's or warhead's fllghL offer perhaps Lhe greaLesL flexlblllLy ln Lerms of addresslng posslble fllghL azlmuLhs
Lra[ecLorles and launch polnLs Wh||e groundbased m|dcourse |nterceptors may have to be or|ented to
|arge threat reg|ons they can defend aga|nst mu|t|p|e |aunch po|nts Converse|y ground
|nterceptors that are near the target can defend on|y a sma|| area but they can potent|a||y
protect that po|nt from |aunches anywhere |n the wor|d et |t |s s|mp|y unaffordab|e to do a
po|nt defense for every p|ace you want to defend |n the Un|ted States every p|ace that US
forces go or everywhere that our a|||es are 1he ab|||ty to do area defense Lo defend agalnsL mulLlple
launch polnLs as opposed Lo dolng polnL defense of a very llmlLed area ls fundamenLal Lo successful mlsslle defense ollLlcal sLraLeglc and
Lechnologlcal uncerLalnLles could change Lhe mlsslle defense scenarlo by causlng a shlfL ln Lhe LhreaL from one reglon Lo anoLher |ven
that |t takes years to f|e|d test and make operat|ona| new f|xed |nterceptor and sensor s|tes
a sh|ft |n the threat cou|d |eave the nat|on vu|nerab|e 8ecause many of the |nterceptors and
sensors |n the current system are f|xed to geograph|c po|nts we are ||m|ted |n our ab|||ty to
defend the home|and for examp|e aga|nst m|ss||es |aunched from surpr|se |ocat|ons such as
a sh|p off our shore||ne We a|so m|ght face an adversary tomorrow that dep|oys tens or even
hundreds of ba|||st|c m|ss||es or one that has more soph|st|cated countermeasure and reentry
techno|og|es 1hose Loo would be expecLed Lo sLress Lhe currenL sysLem whlch ls deslgned aL Lhe momenL Lo deal wlLh more llmlLed
LhreaLs lanned LransporLable landbased and moblle seabased and alrborne sysLems also suffer llmlLaLlons 1he need Lo base sensors and
lnLercepLors forward closer Lo LhreaL launch slLes ln order Lo enlarge Lhe engagemenL baLLle space makes our securlLy dependenL on pollLlcal
declslons by forelgn governmenLs ro[ecLed boosL defense sysLems whlch may be deployed Lo Lhe perlphery or llLLoral of an adversary would
have very llmlLed or no uLlllLy agalnsL a balllsLlc mlsslle launched from several hundred mlles lnslde a LhreaL counLry's border 1he
|nab|||ty to engage a m|ss||e |n boost means we wou|d be |eft w|th on|y m|dcourse or term|na|
|ntercept poss|b|||t|es |f those are ava||ab|e and th|s removes a |ayer from the effect|veness
ca|cu|at|ons
D|rected energy weapons key to successfu| weapon advantage and ba|||st|c m|ss||e
defense str|ke m|ss||es |n boost phase
8ayram Devec| uocLoraLe aL naval osLgraduaLe School naval osLgraduaLe School ulrecLedLnergy Weapons lnvlslble and
lnvlnclble?" SepLember 2007 hLLp//wwwdLlcmll/cglbln/CeL18uoc?AuAuA473993LocaLlonu2docCeL18uocpdf (Chosh)
1 AdvanLages of ulrecLedLnergy Weapons 1here are severa| reasons for the grow|ng |nterest |n d|rected
energy weapons 1he aLLracLlon of Lhe mlllLary Lo Lhese weapons ls clear when conslderlng Lhe unlque properLles Lhey brlng Lo Lhe
sLraLeglc operaLlonal and LacLlcal baLLlefleld 1he flrsL and mosL obvlous advanLage ls LhaL d|rectedenergy weapons de||ver
|etha| energy at the speed of ||ght 1h|s s|gn|f|cant advantage enab|es |nstant react|on to fast
h|gh|y maneuverab|e targets 1haL means many of Lhe prob|ems assoc|ated w|th a|m|ng and
d|scharg|ng ex|st|ng weapons are effect|ve|y e||m|nated because vlrLually no Llme elapses beLween flrlng a
dlrecLedenergy weapon and lLs lmpacL on Lhe LargeL 23 Avo|dance of co||atera| damage or ad[ustab|e energy |s
the second advantage of d|rectedenergy weapons 1oday's war menLallLy prefers Lhe opLlon Lo lnfllcL nonleLhal
aLLacks prlor Lo Lhe use of leLhal force In contrast to k|net|c and chem|ca| weapons that m|ght have
devastat|ng and un|ntended co||atera| effects f|ex|b|e engagement |eve|s dependent upon
the transm|tted power and |rrad|at|on t|me makes the DL weapons un|que and va|uab|e A Lhlrd
lmporLanL aspecL of Lhe d|rectedenergy weapons ls LhaL Lhey are extreme|y prec|se ulrecLedenergy weapons allow
Lhe aLLackers employlng Lhem Lo selecL Lhe speclflc parL of a fasLmovlng LargeL LhaL Lhey wlsh Lo sLrlke ln facL wlLh sufflclenL Lracklng and
characLerlzaLlon Lhls unprecedenLed preclslon wlll accompllsh surglcal sLrlkes wlLh no collaLeral damage or fraLrlcldal effecLs on frlendly forces
24 A fourLh lmporLanL feaLure of dlrecLedenergy weapons ls Lhelr freedom from gravlLaLlonal llmlLs ulrecLedenergy beams are essenLlally
lmmune Lo gravlLy due Lo Lhelr lack of mass whlch also frees Lhem from Lhe klnemaLlc and aerodynamlc consLralnLs LhaL llmlL LradlLlonal
weapons 2 A flfLh key feaLure of Lhe dlrecLedenergy weapons ls LhaL Lhey are area weapons LhaL can engage mulLlple LargeLs wlLhln a hosLlle
area wlLh mlnlmal prlor lnformaLlon on LhreaL characLerlsLlcs 1hey can affecL all LargeLs ln LhaL area and can be rapldly reLargeLed Lo provlde
proLecLlon ln several dlrecLlons 26 A s|xth d|rectedenergy weapon advantage |s the|r deep magaz|nes
wh|ch need on|y fue| and battery chargers as we|| as |ow operat|ng costs lor example a LacLlcal hlgh
energy laser shoL ls esLlmaLed Lo cosL abouL $8000 whereas flrlng a aLrloL (AC3) mlsslle cosLs $38 mllllon an AlM7 Sparrow mlsslle cosLs
approxlmaLely $123000 and a 1omahawk crulse mlsslle cosLs roughly $600000 AlLhough Lhe beamgeneraLlng sysLem may be expenslve Lo
bulld and malnLaln Lhe prlce of engagemenLs ls mlnlmal because Lhe sysLem expends only energy 27 A flnal unlque characLerlsLlc of dlrecLed
energy weapon ls Lhelr allweaLher aLLack capablllLy Lo reach vlrLually unLouchable LargeLs 1hey are unaffected by weather
and can penetrate deep |nto the earth enab||ng attacks on bur|ed bunkers as we|| as targets
|n space 28 2 LlmlLaLlons and roblems wlLh ulrecLedLnergy Weapons ulrecLedenergy weapons offer new ways of flghLlng LhaL wlll
change currenL docLrlnes LacLlcs and sLraLegles As wlLh Lhe lnLroducLlon of any new sysLems dlrecLed energy weapons also have llmlLaLlons
and drawbacks LhaL wlll Lend Lo mlLlgaLe Lhelr fasL growLh 1he flrsL problem faclng dlrecLed energy ls operaLlng under realworld condlLlons
Whlle a new Lechnology llke dlrecLedenergy weapons are belng LranslLloned ouL of Lhe laboraLory Lo Lhe real baLLlegrounds Lhere mlghL be
relaLlvely slmple counLermeasures LhaL can resLrlcL Lhe effecLlveness of dlrecLedenergy weapons LhaL have been overlooked by Lhose worklng
ln Lhe laboraLorles and LhaL may be relaLlvely slmple Lo lmplemenL lraLrlclde ls probably Lhe second blggesL drawback ln uslng Lhls Lechnology
Some dlrecLedenergy weapons are noL very dlscrlmlnaLlng 8adlaLlng aL an enemy wlll noL only affecL Lhe LargeL sysLem buL also anyLhlng else
ln Lhe beam's paLh Any frlendly forces wlLhln Lhe fooLprlnL of Lhe beam wlll be aL slgnlflcanL rlsk 29 A Lhlrd greaL llmlLaLlon of some Lypes of
dlrecLedenergy weapons ls LhaL Lhey are hlghly suscepLlble Lo degradaLlon by Lhe aLmosphere ln Lhe presence of obscuranLs wheLher naLural
or manufacLured such as dusL clouds raln and smoke AnoLher poLenLlal llmlLaLlon ls damage or performancedegradlng assessmenLs uue Lo
llLLle dlrecLlyobservable feedback from Lhe LargeL as Lo Lhe effecLs of a hlL one may noL know poslLlvely lf a dlrecLedenergy weapon has been
successful30 1he lasL concern regardlng dlrecLedenergy weapons ls relaLed Lo Lhelr usage agalnsL allled forces Plghpowered mlcrowave
weapons may be relaLlvely slmple for LerrorlsL forces (and oLhers) Lo acqulre and use ln an asymmeLrlc manner ln order Lo counLer Lhls all
elecLronlc plaLforms and weapon sysLems musL be hardened and shlelded 1able 3 summarlzes Lhe advanLages and dlsadvanLages of dlrecLed
energy weapons Llke Lhelr sLrengLhs dlrecLedenergy weapons weaknesses dlffer from Lhose encounLered by currenL Lechnologles and
conLrlbuLe Lo Lhe lmpresslon LhaL Lhese weapons are very dlfferenL L|ke a|| other weapons d|rectedenergy weapons
have ||m|tat|ons and prob|ems Powever the|r potent|a| |nf|uence on the current batt|ef|e|d
strateg|es far outwe|ghs the|r ||m|tat|on L LllLC1S Cn 1A8CL1S 1here are varlous means of affecLlng LargeLs uslng
dlrecLedenergy weapons 1he followlng dlscusslon lncludes some of Lhe commonly used Lerms Lo dlscuss Lhese varlous means ueny ls a
Lemporary acLlon and lL ls deflned as Lhe ablllLy Lo ellmlnaLe Lhe enemy's operaLlonal capaclLy wlLhouL lnfllcLlng harm whereas degrade means
Lo achleve Lhls lmpacL wlLh mlnlmal ln[ury on Lhe enemy sysLems ueny and degrade are boLh slmllar ln LhaL Lhey boLh are nonpermanenL and
affecLed sysLems wlll reLurn Lo normal operaLlon wlLhln a perlod of Llme 24 1he concepL of damage lnvolves moderaLe ln[ury Lo lncapaclLaLe
Lhe enemy sysLems for a cerLaln perlod of Llme 1hls acLlon may be permanenL dependlng upon Lhe severlLy of Lhe aLLack llnally desLroy
reflecLs Lhe ldea of permanenL ln[ury on Lhe enemy sysLems whlch would be requlre LoLal replacemenL 31 ln prlnclple dependlng on some
condlLlons such as dlsLance beLween Lhe weapon and LargeL generaLed power and LargeLhardenlng level dlrecLedenergy weapons affecL
Lhelr LargeLs Lhrough elLher a sofLklll or a hardklll 1 SofLklll A sofLklll ls achleved when Lhe effecLs of a dlrecLedenergy weapon sLops
operaLlon of Lhe LargeL sysLem Lemporarlly As ls undersLood from Lhelr deflnlLlons above deny degrade and some damage effecLs are Lhe
pracLlcal meLhods of a sofLklll mechanlsm ulsrupLlng Lhe elecLronlcs of a gulded mlsslle causlng lL Lo mlss lLs LargeL or suppresslng or
damaglng vlslble lnfrared and mlcrowave sensors mlghL be glven as examples of a sofLklll 1he resulLs are a Lemporary loss of funcLlon buL
Lhey can serlously compromlse operaLlonal success A sofLklll by dlrecLedenergy weapons agalnsL human LargeLs means palnful sLlmulaLlon of
human nerves hearlng or skln AfLer braln Llssue absorbs an elecLromagneLlc pulse lL sllghLly buL rapldly expands and produces a supersonlc
wave whlch ls recelved by Lhe lnner ear lf Lhls pulse of energy exceeds a cerLaln Lhreshold and Lhe supersonlc wave ls Loo sLrong Lhe human
ear wlll noL funcLlon 32 1he AcLlve uenlal SysLem dlscussed ln a laLer chapLer ls an example of a dlrecLedenergy weapon whlch uses a sofLklll
mechanlsm by heaLlng up Lhe sklns surface 2 Pardklll Llke convenLlonal weapons dlrecLedenergy weapons can defeat the|r
targets by caus|ng phys|ca| damage to the structure of the targets A hardklll ls achleved when sufflclenL
energy ls dellvered lnLo Lhe LargeL sysLem such LhaL lL ls permanenLly damaged or desLroyed 33 Destroy|ng a ba|||st|c m|ss||e
w|th an a|rborne |aser dur|ng |ts boost phase by heat|ng me|t|ng or vapor|z|ng |ts sk|n |s an
examp|e of a hardk||| A hardklll can lnclude - SLrucLural damage - MelLlng of componenLs - ShorLlng ouL elecLronlcs - luslng and
lmmoblllzlng movlng parLs D|rectedenergy weapons have ad[ustab|e k||| mechan|sms as we|| as both
hardk||| and softk||| capac|t|es wh|ch makes them un|que |n compar|son to k|net|c energy
weapons Instead of on|y destroy|ng targets d|rectedenergy weapons have softk||| potent|a|
wh|ch enab|es temporary damage and degradat|on


So|vency
Ieas|b|e
S8Ls can ach|eve g|oba| 8MD capab|||ty
8ayram Devec| uocLoraLe aL naval osLgraduaLe School 2 naval osLgraduaLe School ulrecLedLnergy Weapons lnvlslble and
lnvlnclble?" SepLember 2007 hLLp//wwwdLlcmll/cglbln/CeL18uoc?AuAuA473993LocaLlonu2docCeL18uocpdf
1he spacebased |aser (S8L) |s another h|ghenergy |aser type that uses a hydrogen f|uor|de (nI)
chem|ca| |aser to ach|eve an effect|ve g|oba| ba|||st|c m|ss||e defense capab|||ty 1he S8L |s current|y
env|s|oned to be a conste||at|on of orb|ta| |aser weapons capab|e of engag|ng and destroy|ng severa|
c|asses of m|ss||es |aunched from anywhere |n the wor|d dur|ng the boost phase 1he S8L w||| a|so
have the capab|||ty to destroy or d|sab|e other spacebased systems such as surve|||ance sate|||tes
Moreover a dlfferenL laser Lype LhaL has an approprlaLe wavelengLh oLher Lhan LhaL of Lhe hydrogen fluorlde (Pl) chemlcal laser could aLLack
ground LargeLs Accordlng Lo sources Lhe besL spacebased laser (llgure 13) concepL would operaLe aL an alLlLude of 1300 km above Lhe
earLh's surface wlLh LwenLy dlfferenL spacebased plaLforms 1h|s wou|d prov|de a cont|nuous wor|dw|de defense ab|||ty
to destroy host||e m|ss||es |aunched anyt|me from anywhere on the g|obe Lach spacebased laser plaLform
conslsLs of four ma[or subsysLems - A laser devlce whlch uses megawaLLclass hydrogen fluorlde (Pl) chemlcal laser operaLlng aL 27 mlcrons
- An opLlcs and beam conLrol sysLem whlch has a 24 Lo 40meLerdlameLer prlmary beam dlrecLor and an lnLegraLed beam conLrol sysLem -
An acqulslLlon Lracklng polnLlng and flre conLrol (A1/lC) sysLem whlch lncludes a sLablllzed plaLform Lo malnLaln Lhe beam on Lhe LargeL -
AssoclaLed space sysLems whlch provlde Lhe necessary elecLrlcal power laser reacLanLs onboard daLa processlng and command and conLrol
72 1wo other |onger term opt|ons are cons|dered to |nvo|ve spacebased |aser systems 1he f|rst uses
spacebased m|rrors and p|aces the |aser on the ground 1he dlsLlncL advanLage of Lhls archlLecLure ls LhaL the h|gh
energy |aser |s kept on the ground wh|ch e||m|nates refue||ng and comp|ex ma|ntenance prob|ems
A|though |t has an advantage th|s opt|on has d|sadvantages that |nc|ude the requ|rement for h|gher
energy |eve|s to counter greater |osses due to atmospher|c transm|ss|on A second opLlon ls deploymenL of space
laser weapons wlLh large orblLal mlrrors 1he concepL behlnd Lhls archlLecLure ls Lo lncrease Lhe alLlLude of plaLforms and lnserL blfocal mlrrors
lnLo Lhe same orblL as Lhe laser weapons Cne d|st|nct advantage of th|s arch|tecture |s the poss|b|||ty of reduc|ng
the we|ght and expense of the system Instead of twenty |aser p|atforms the concept requ|res
rough|y ten p|atforms and ten orb|t|ng m|ss|on m|rrors4 1h|s w||| decrease the number of |aser
p|atforms but w||| a|so requ|re h|gher energy |eve|s because of the h|gher orb|ta| a|t|tude
Space based 8MD |s poss|b|e recent breakthroughs
ur SLeven Lambak|s Senlor uefense AnalysL aL Lhe naLlonal lnsLlLuLe for ubllc ollcy 2 Plgh lronLler 32 Leveraglng Space to
Improve M|ss||e Defense"
Are we aLLempLlng Lhe lmposslble? l belleve h|gh|yeffect|ve defenses aga|nst future ba|||st|c m|ss||e threats wlll be a
cha||enge Lo develop but not |mposs|b|e espec|a||y |f we f|nd the po||t|ca| w||| Lo focus on Lhe besL ways Lo leverage
Lhe space envlronmenL Lo accompllsh Lhls mlsslon WlLh severa| successfu| h|ttok||| |ntercept tests ln Lhe bag and Lhe proven
combaL performance of shorLrange landbased defenses we have shown LhaL we can h|tabu||etw|thabu||et" We also have
made greaL sLrldes ln componenL mlnlaLurlzaLlon and advances ln maLerlals and over the past twenty years have |mproved
performance |n |nterceptors sensors and batt|e management 1h|s techno|og|ca| progress |s key to
cons|der|ng whether Lhe operaLlon of spacebased |nterceptors |s feas|b|e effect|ve (as parL of Lhe overall uS mlsslle
defense sysLem) and affordab|e
No barr|ers to m|ss||e Defense
Cregory Canavan works ln Lhe hyslcs ulvlslon Cfflce of Lhe Los Alamos naLlonal LaboraLory ln !anuary 2000 he was elecLed an AS
lellow Lhrough Lhe lorum on hyslcs and SocleLy for hls conLrlbuLlons leadlng Lo Lhe lmprovemenL of mlllLary sclence and Lechnology"01
Space8ased Mlsslle uefense Pas lLs 1lme Come? 2 hLLp//wwwmarshallorg/pdf/maLerlals/36pdf
C l geL Lhe lmpresslon LhaL Lhe 8rllllanL ebble Lechnology ls more maLure Lhan l had reallzed Canavan ln 1992 we were arguably Lwo years
from Lhe end of englneerlng and manufacLurlng developmenL 1oday lf you wanLed Lo deploy Lhe sysLem ln four years you could do LhaL
comforLably 1here |s noth|ng mag|c here If we wanted to dep|oy |andbased or seabased NMD |n four
years we cou|d do |t It's not a matter of can or can't as my o|d coach sa|d |t's a matter of w||| or
won't (lLman)


A1 Can't Shoot Down
DLW techno|ogy that can shoot down |ntercont|nenta| m|ss||es has been deve|oped
MaLLhew Mowthorpe wrlLer for Alr and Space ower !ournal (8ranch of Alr lorce 8esearch lnsLlLuLe) 3822 Alr and Space ower
!ournal 1he 8evoluLlon ln MlllLary Affalrs and ulrecLed Lnergy Weapons"
hLLp//wwwalrpowermaxwellafmll/alrchronlcles/cc/mowLhorpe02hLml
D|rected energy weapons (DLW) are a Lechnology area LhaL has been neglecLed ln Lhls 8MA 1he techno|og|es assoclaLed wlLh
uLWs have been matur|ng wh||e po||t|ca| support and new expend|tures from Congress are mak|ng
dep|oyment of DLW systems |n the near future a rea||st|c poss|b|||ty 1he use of uLWs on Lhe modern baLLlefleld
would conLrlbuLe Lo Lhe currenL 8MA DLWs w||| be ab|e to prov|de defense aga|nst shortrange art|||ery she||s
and theater$|ntercont|nenta| m|ss||es as we|| as ant|sate|||te capab|||t|es that w||| contr|bute to a
space contro| strategy 1hls arLlcle examlnes advances ln uLW Lechnology and Lhe new mlllLary mlsslons and roles LhaL wlll be enabled
by Lhese new weapon sysLems
Space Lasers work and have been around
Cregory Canavan works ln Lhe hyslcs ulvlslon Cfflce of Lhe Los Alamos naLlonal LaboraLory ln !anuary 2 he was elecLed an AS
lellow Lhrough Lhe lorum on hyslcs and SocleLy for hls conLrlbuLlons leadlng Lo Lhe lmprovemenL of mlllLary sclence and Lechnology"01
Space8ased Mlsslle Defense nas Its 1|me Come? 2 http$$wwwmarsha||org$pdf$mater|a|s$6pdf
1here have been techn|ca||y |asers |n space for decades var|ous government and contractor teams
have worked on them 1hey have been very product|ve and have hung |n there through some tough
t|mes 1hose Lough Llmes were largely drlven by change ln mlsslon When we sLarLed Lhe laser ln space lL was Lhe only way LhaL we could see
Lo go afLer Lhe SS9 ln boosLphase 1he SS9 was essenLlally a LlLanlum can or balloon full of gas lL was a very easy sofL LargeL 8uL Lhe SS9 goL
rolled lnLo Lhe SS18 whlch was lnLrlnslcally harder ln lLs sLrucLure So you go lnLo Lhls race of laserhardenlng vs Lhe mlsslle 1he neL resulL
LwenLy years laLer ls LhaL Lhe space laser alLhough havlng sLarLed flrsL because lL goL pushed back and because lL's blgger and ln some ways
more complex ls somewhaL less maLure 1he goal now ls Lo brlng space lasers along by a Llme llke 2012 or 2013 ln a sense lL ls a llLLle blL
delayed 1hat doesn't bother me though because there |s an |mportant ro|e for the space |aser If you
do someth|ng |n boost you have to do |t very fast In that s|tuat|on |t |s good to be ab|e to count on a
speedof||ght weapon rather than a k|net|c energy |nterceptor So you can see a t|me when a
comb|nat|on of faster m|ss||es shorterrange m|ss||es that you want to h|t and targets other than
m|ss||es cou|d dr|ve you to want to have a speedof||ght weapon l personally fell off Lhe boaL on lasers LwenLy
years ago because l couldn'L flgure ouL how Lo make Lhem really survlvable 1hey're falrly vlslble and Lhe concern was LhaL someone could drop
a Lon of gravel ln Lhe paLh or someLhlng llke LhaL 8uL you could arguably puL a klneLlcenergy seL of lnLercepLors LogeLher wlLh a spacebased
laser and LhaL comblnaLlon ls acLually qulLe survlvable

Space nat|ona| m|ss||e defense on|y way to |ntercept weapons before detonat|on
wou|d destroy sate|||tes and ensure US m|||tary response
SLeven Lambak|s Senlor AnalysL and Managlng LdlLor compototlve 5ttoteqy
Poover lnsLlLuLlon Mlsslle uefense lrom Space" 3/2007 hLLp//wwwgeesorg/documenLos/uocumen02177pdf Marcus
It |s a|so known that enem|es of the Un|ted States can put a nuc|ear weapon over US terr|tory us|ng a
ba|||st|c m|ss||e 1he detonat|on of th|s weapon at a h|gh a|t|tude cou|d un|eash an
e|ectromagnet|c pu|se that wou|d w|pe out sate|||te and a|rborne nav|gat|on |nte|||gence and
commun|cat|ons systems and |mpede any US m|||tary response to the aggress|on Such a pu|se of
energy wou|d d|sab|e or destroy the unprotected techno|og|ca| |nfrastructure of a reg|on or the nat|on Accord|ng to the emp Comm|ss|on
"a reg|ona| or nat|ona| recovery wou|d be |ong and d|ff|cu|t and wou|d ser|ous|y degrade the safety and overa|| v|ab|||ty of our nat|on
At some po|nt the degradat|on of |nfrastructure cou|d have |rrevers|b|e effects on the
country's ab|||ty to support |ts popu|at|on" Spacebased |nterceptors may be the on|y
effect|ve way to counter th|s threat and m|t|gate the effects of an e|ectromagnet|c pu|se
resu|t|ng from the |ntercept Lngag|ng the m|ss||e c|ose to |ts |aunch po|nt wou|d re|ease the
resu|t|ng exp|os|on of gamma rays c|oser to the attacker's terr|tory ke|y|ng on an |ntercept |n
space |n the m|dcourse of a m|ss||e's f||ght r|sks damag|ng unprotected sate|||tes (|e [ust about a||
commerc|a| and c|v|||an sate|||tes) regard|ess of who owns them

Space NMD deters host||e states government deve|opment and dep|oyment key
Lorlnda Ireder|ck MasLer of Alrpower ArL and Sclence M8A 8egls unlverslLy MasLer of MlllLary
CperaLlonal ArL and Sclence Alr Command and School of Advanced Alr and Space SLudles 2
ueLerrence and Space8ased Mlsslle uefense"
hLLp//wwwalrpowerauafmll/alrchronlcles/ap[/ap[09/fal09/frederlckhLml
S8Mu progressed Lhrough varlous programs such as CALS 8rllllanL ebbles ClemenLlne and S8L
desplLe dwlndllng supporL from presldenLlal admlnlsLraLlons followlng resldenL 8eagan's res Ceorge
W 8ush paved Lhe way for Lhe nexL admlnlsLraLlon Lo puL S8Mu on Lhe lnLernaLlonal agenda Accordlng
Lo 1he naLlonal SecurlLy SLraLegy of Lhe unlLed SLaLes of Amerlca(2006) the UnlLed SLaLes may need
new approaches to deter state and nonstate actors and deny them the ob[ect|ves of Lhelr aLLacks30
AddlLlonally Lhe naLlonal SLraLegy Lo CombaL Weapons of Mass uesLrucLlon (2002) sLaLes LhaL Loday's
LhreaLs are far more dlverse and less predlcLable Lhan Lhose of Lhe pasL States host||e to the UnlLed
SLaLes and Lo our frlends and allles have demonstrated the|r w||||ngness to take h|gh r|sks to ach|eve
the|r goa|s and are aggress|ve|y pursu|ng WMD and the|r means of de||very as cr|t|ca| too|s |n th|s
effort As a consequence we requ|re new methods of deterrence"31CooperaLlon on mlsslle defense
lnlLlaLlves could lncrease global sLablllLy 8y bandlng LogeLher ln coallLlons counLrles can deLer war by
repelllng an aLLack agalnsL any member32 SLaLes and rogue elemenLs wlll noL be able Lo sLrlke
surrepLlLlously lf Lhey know LhaL Lhe lnLernaLlonal communlLy could qulckly dlscern Lhe orlgln of any
launch and compuLe poLenLlal lmpacL polnLs ALLempLs by a rogue elemenL Lo desLablllze Lhe reglon
Lhrough Lhe aLLrlbuLlon of aLLacks Lo a sLaLe may lnlLlally promoLe Lhe rogue elemenLs own agenda
Powever daLa provlded by mlsslle defense and oLher sensors can refuLe such clalms 1he shared
lnLernaLlonal ab|||ty to |dent|fy |aunch and |mpact po|nts m|ght deter states and rogue e|ements from
|aunch|ng |n the f|rst p|ace 1he more naLlons cooperaLe wlLh each oLher Lhe more sLable Lhe world
becomes o||cymakers need to |nvest |n Lhe developmenL of many dlfferenL capablllLles lncludlng
S8MD to negate m|ss||es |n the|r boost phase and use the |nformat|on g|eaned from these
deve|opments to |nform dec|s|ons Cne approach lnvolves brlnglng a sysLem Lo Lhe proLoLype sLage for
LesLlng and accuraLely gauglng lLs performance 1hls approach could leL Lhe unlLed SLaLes lnvesL ln only
a llmlLed number of proLoLypes Lhus deferrlng largescale producLlon Lo allow furLher research
developmenL and LesLlng 1hese efforLs could decrease Lhe rlsk of fallure durlng producLlon and
deploymenL33 When Lhe need arlses Lhe unlLed SLaLes should caplLallze on preexlsLlng proLoLypes as
long as Lhe lndusLrlal base could supporL rapld producLlon 8y fundlng 8u for S8Mu Lhe unlLed SLaLes
would ensure Lhe vlablllLy of Lhese Lechnologles 1he DCD cannot expect deve|opments |n commerc|a|
|ndustry to be ava||ab|e for nat|ona| secur|ty purposes Compet|t|ve pressures force |ndustry to fund
nearterm kD programs and choose nearterm surv|va| over |ongterm poss|b|||t|es34 Applled
research lnLo S8Mu Lechnologles would allow Lhe unlLed SLaLes Lo galn more knowledge abouL boosL
phase defenses Amerlca wlll geL as much 8u ln S8Mu Lechnologles as lL ls wllllng Lo fund

Cn|y S8Ls can knock down m|ss||es before they reach boost mode
MaLLhew Mowthorpe wrlLer for Alr and Space ower !ournal (8ranch of Alr lorce 8esearch lnsLlLuLe) 2
Alr and Space ower !ournal 1he 8evoluLlon ln MlllLary Affalrs and ulrecLed Lnergy Weapons" 3/8/02
hLLp//wwwalrpowermaxwellafmll/alrchronlcles/cc/mowLhorpe02hLml)
S8Ls would be locaLed on saLelllLes placed ln lowearLh orblL 1he Lype of orblL would depend on Lhe naLure of
Lhe LhreaL A saLelllLe's orblLal alLlLude ls an lmporLanL facLor slnce lL musL place Lhe laser as frequenLly
as posslble ln a poslLlon where lL can desLroy Lhe largesL number of mlsslles ln Lhelr boosL phase
1he saLelllLe needs Lo be aL an alLlLude sufflclenL Lo enable lL Lo lnLercepL Lhe farLhesL boosLlng
mlsslle lL can see wlLhouL focuslng Lhe beam ln such a way LhaL closer and more vulnerable mlsslles are mlssed 1he opLlmal alLlLude
depends upon Lhe helghL aL whlch Lhe boosLers englnes sLop flrlng Lhe capaclLy of Lhe laser and Lhe hardness of Lhe mlsslles When Lhe
SovleL unlon's lC8Ms were consldered Lhe maln LhreaL polar orblLs were chosen slnce Lhey
provlded good coverage of Lhe norLhern laLlLudes Powever polar orblLs concenLraLe S8Ls aL Lhe poles where Lhere are no balllsLlc
mlsslles deployed 1he opLlmum conflguraLlon would be a number of orblLal planes lncllned abouL 70o Lo Lhe equaLor7 lL ls generally accepLed
LhaL S8Ls would be lncapable of laslng a mlsslle reenLry vehlcle wlLh a desLrucLlve dose of energy
durlng lLs mldcourse and reenLry Lra[ecLory 8eenLry vehlcles are hardened Lo survlve Lhe launch mldcourse and
Lhermal reenLry phases of mlsslle fllghL Lhen successfully deLonaLe and desLroy even hard LargeLs8 1he mlsslle musL Lherefore
be LargeLed durlng Lhe Llme when lL ls above Lhe clouds and aLmosphere and before lL deploys
reenLry vehlcles

Space NMD key
Space is tbe best NMD - Clobal boost coverage and ASAT capabilities
nays | Bi. Petei L. Bays is Associate Biiectoi of Eisenhowei Centei foi Space anu Befense Stuuies, 0SAF Acauemy. Be pieviously helu the
position of senioi policy analyst suppoiting the plans anu piogiams uivision of the National Secuiity Space 0ffice Towaiu a 0.S. uianu
Stiategy in Space, Bi. Eveiett Bolman, Bi. Petei Bays anu Bi. Kail P. Nuellei, Naich , 26;

Space is Best Basing Mode for Clobal Boost-Pbase Coverage, No Crisis Deployment or Contested
AirspaceJLittoral - Limited Engagement Window {- sec], Predelegation or Man-intbe-loop? - Even Limited BMD
System can bave Significant ASAT Capability - Crisis Stability, Expense, Tecbnologies Anotber patb to space
weaponization tbat is commonly discussed is by employing some kind of space weapons as part of a
boost-pbase ballistic missile defense system. If you want to bave a global boost pbase
defense, space basing is extremely attractive because tbat gives you tbe time to engage tbose
targets tbat are fleeting, but are typically valuable targets. Ubviously tbere are some buge drawbacks as well. It is
expensive to deploy tbat kind of tbing, you migbt bave to bave predelegation built into tbe
system because of tbat very fleeting window to engage, and tbere are a variety of otber problems. In fact, if
you look back during tbe 98s witb tbe SDI debates and tbe Reyk|avik summit, tbis was really tbe lyncbpin in
terms of US-Soviet relations - bow far and bow fast were tbe two sides going to go in
weaponizing space in order to provide ballistic missile defense - and not some of tbe tbings
we talked about at tbe beginning
Space |s key
Steven Lambak|s, Senioi Analyst anu Nanaging Euitoi, Comporotive Stroteqy,
Boovei Institution, "Nissile Befense Fiom Space", , http:www.gees.oiguocumentosBocumen-.puf

National economic anu commeicial inteiielationships thiive on the flow of invisible ones anu zeios thiough space channels, so that
timely, agile inteicontinental tiaue is now taken foi gianteu. 0.S. anu coalition foices ioutinely leveiage eaith-ciicling platfoims to
enhance militaiy capabilities: the ulobal Positioning System foi impioveu navigation anu piecision timing, ieconnaissance anu eaily
waining sensois, anu high- banuwiuth communications. Space, moreover, is an open arena, a global commons
increasingly used by many countries for military purposes. Tbe proliferation of space
tecbnologies offers foreign governments and nonstate entities unparalleled opportunities to
enbance diplomatic and military influence over tbe U.S. and strike witb strategic effect.
Potential enemies of the 0niteu States touay have impioveu "vision" ovei the 0.S. homelanu anu battlefielu activities, a bettei sense of
uiiection anu geogiaphic position, anu an impioveu ability to mobilize foices anu cooiuinate activities. Witb battle space now
reacbing up to at least , miles above tbe Eartb - tbe orbital altitudes for early warning
and communications satellites - protecting ourselves from future attacks will depend
migbtily on space power.
Space NMD key
Spacebased NMD |s best |t |s the most effect|ve and better than a|t forms of NMD
Iak|o|as and Iak|o|as LfsLaLhlos 1 laklolas holds a hu from Lhe ueparLmenL of War SLudles klngs College London and ls currenLly worklng as
a sLraLegy and souLheasLern Luropean affalrs analysL aL A1Lbank 1assos L laklolas holds a hu from lMLMC Moscow 8usslan Academy of
Sclences and ls a speclal advlser on 8usslan and easL Luropean affalrs for a Creek buslness flrm '09 (korean !ournal of uefense Analysls Space
conLrol and global hegemony 2
ln Lhls poLenLlally LhreaLenlng envlronmenL Lhe unlLed SLaLes 8ussla and lsrael have flelded balllsLlc mlsslle defense sysLems and are sLrlvlng
Lo furLher Lhelr capablllLles agalnsL LheaLer balllsLlc mlsslles7 ?eL Lhe vlew wldely held among pollcy ellLes and senlor mlllLary offlcers allke ls
LhaL for Lhe Llme belng ''effecLlve mlsslle defenses do noL exlsL''8 1he prlmary defenslve problem ls Lo obLaln Lhe ablllLy noL [usL Lo deLer buL
also Lo ward off nuclear and masslve desLrucLlve mlsslle aLLacks* LhaL ls Lo have Lhe economlc and Lechnologlcal resources Lo bulld an effecLlve
anLl mlsslle shleld 1o Lhls end a greaL power needs Lo have sea and ground bases ln numerous counLrles parLlcularly Lhe blg ones 8uL ln Lhls
case Lhese counLrles are ln danger of belng Lhe ob[ecL of aLLack 1haL ls why mosL of Lhem Canada for lnsLance have denled offerlng Lhelr
LerrlLory for such purposes 1hus |nsofar as a |and sea and a|rbased sh|e|d |s vu|nerab|e to earthbased
attacks for m|ss||e defense to be |mpenetrab|e |t shou|d be dep|oyed |n a p|ace where no one cou|d
read||y have access 1hls place ls space 1he space d|mens|on of m|ss||e defense |s more s|gn|f|cant than the
ground sea and a|r d|mens|ons taken together Why? ure|y from a m|||tary po|nt of v|ew space |s an
operat|ona| med|um ''w|th some un|que advantages pers|stence presence perspect|ve access
prec|s|on respons|veness'' W|th these attr|butes ''you can know more about the adversary ou can
see the batt|ef|e|d more comp|ete|y and c|ear|y ou can str|ke more qu|ck|y and prec|se|y'' lL ls all Lhls LhaL
consLlLuLes ''Lhe asymmeLrlc advanLage'' whlch ln Lurn far from reduclng space Lo a mere ''force enhancer'' seL Lhe sLage for a ''spaceenabled
warfare''9 And of course Lhls 1he korean !ournal of uefense Analysls 139 advanLage ls funcLlonally based on and augmenLed by sate|||tes
whlch are ''the on|y systems to so|ve the 'beyond ||ne of s|ght' quest|on'' rov|d|ng cont|nuous
coverage 24 hours a day and days a week they operate across cont|nents and oceans w|thout be|ng
dependent on forwardbas|ng as are a|rcraft and other sensors In us|ng sate|||tes a spacebased
m|ss||e defense ''wou|d prov|de the w|dest area of coverage and greatest number of shots aga|nst
enemy warheads a|ways be|ng present to destroy ba|||st|c m|ss||es |aunched from anywhere |n the
wor|d'' 8y exLenslon lL prov|des the opportun|ty to destroy a m|ss||e dur|ng |ts boostphase f||ght be|ng
''on stat|on on a wor|dw|de bas|s unfettered by sovere|gnty |ssues of overf||ght and operat|ons on
another nat|on's terr|tory''2 nence emerges the need for space contro| to the extent that upto
date efforts to deve|op an effect|ve g|oba| ant|m|ss||e sh|e|d w|th earthbased components have met
w|th ||tt|e success13 Cne mlghL ralse Lhe quesLlon however why |s there ''a need for spacebased weapons
m|ss||e defense when the threat |s theoret|ca|?''4 1he obv|ous answer ||es |n ''the very fact that
we have no rea| defense'' aga|nst ba|||st|c m|ss||es13 lL also lles ln Lhe facL LhaL space |s a ''host||e p|ace''
where ''enemy m|ss||es or warheads w||| spend most of the|r t|me''16 1o Lhls flnally should be added Lhe facL LhaL
lL ls meanlngless Lo make a dlsLlncLlon beLween clvll and mlllLary space sysLems lL ls all Lhe same Lhlng Accordlng Lo Lhe ulrecLorCeneral of Lhe
Luropean Space Agency (LSA) !acque uordaln ''Lhe dlsLlncLlon beLween defenserelaLed and clvll space sysLems makes llLLle sense Loday''
because ''Lhe same saLelllLes Lhe same sysLems can be used for boLh'' Space has already been mlllLarlzed slnce several manufacLurlng saLelllLes
are uLlllzed for securlLy and defense purposes 1he ''weapon|zat|on'' of space goes a |ot further than |ts
''m|||tar|zat|on'' and m|ght be def|ned ''as the test|ng or dep|oyment of techno|og|es spec|f|ca||y
des|gned to f|ght a war |n or from space''17 Cn Lhls counL Lherefore some scholars argue LhaL Lhe cosL of mlsslle defense ls
one ''LhaL we cannoL afford noL Lo bear''18 CLhers volce Lhe vlew LhaL Lhe experlence of lraq ls bound Lo lnclLe ''a more aggresslve approach Lo
maklng mlsslle defenses work agalnsL a more plauslble range of mlsslle LhreaLs AnyLhlng less would be lrresponslble''19 1he heart of the
matter |s that bu||d|ng a m|ss||edefense system requ|res of a great power to m|||tar||y contro| space a
fact that |s dest|ned to enab|e |t to atta|n g|oba| hegemony
round based 8MD |s |nev|tab|e and r|sky Space based key to med|at|on
LvereLL C Do|man AssoclaLe rofessor of ComparaLlve MlllLary SLudles aL Lhe uS Alr lorce School of Advanced Alr and Space SLudles 23
Space ower and uS Pegemony" hLLp//wwwgwuedu/spl/asseLs/docs/SecurlLy_Space_volumellnalpdf
WlLhouL quesLlon from mlllLary appllcaLlons and sLraLeglc perspecLlves space based 8MD systems are super|or to
terrestr|a| (ground sea or alr) based ones 1hey a|so have except|ona| po||t|ca| advantages Any 8MD
system w||| rece|ve cr|t|c|sm from poLenLlal adversarles as ls evldenL wlLh Lhe rouLlne vocal opposlLlon LhaL comes from 8ussla and
Chlna Lo any proposed 1Mu sysLem 8ecause of crlLlclsm and reLallaLory LhreaLs made by Lhe opposlng sLaLes domesLlc and allled supporL has
been heslLanL and unsure If the state |s w||||ng to dep|oy 8MD anyway by us|ng a spacebased system
|nstead of a groundbased one |t shou|d be ab|e to gradua||y rega|n w|despread popu|ar support Cne of
Lhe advanLages of Lhe moblle 1MD sysLem say lLs advocaLes ls LhaL lL could be dlspaLched Lo LhreaLened areas as needed 1rue enough buL
|mag|ne the prob|ems assoc|ated w|th some poss|b|e dep|oyments to Israe| say or to 1a|wan As much
as Lhe unlLed SLaLes would lnslsL LhaL Lhe deploymenL was for defenslve purposes only |t wou|d be a c|ear and poss|b|y
|nf|ammatory s|gn of preference for one s|de over the other A spacebased system wou|d forever be
on a|ert and wou|d avo|d the po||t|ca| prob|ems of terrestr|a| bas|ng a|together 1he Un|ted States
wou|d not have to phys|ca||y dep|oy to the threatened terr|tory to be ab|e to |ntercept and destroy
host||e m|ss||e act|v|ty regard|ess of the s|de that |aunches f|rst Un|ted States |mpart|a||ty cou|d be
asserted and ma|nta|ned keta||at|ons too cou|d be contro||ed Whlle a unlLed SLaLes 1Mu baLLery ln lsrael could
concelvably shooL down an lncomlng balllsLlc mlsslle from lraq whaL would prevenL Lhe lsraell's from shooLlng back ln anger? 1he unlLed SLaLes
would need Lo deploy Lhe sysLem ln boLh sLaLes Lventua||y they wou|d have to be dep|oyed |n a|| states and any hope
of counLerlng Lhe spacebased sysLem wlLh a flscal resLralnL argumenL would be losL Moreover the human operators of the 1MD
battery wou|d be at r|sk 1he|r capture or casua|t|es |n the|r ranks cou|d force the Un|ted State to get
d|rect|y |nvo|ved |n the conf||ct knowlng Lhls Lhey could be parLlcularly deslrable LargeLs for elLher slde ln oLher lnsLances the
Un|ted States m|ght not have the t|me to dep|oy a 1MD battery to a host||e theater or may be pollLlcally
unable Lo do so 1he case of an lndlanaklsLan or an lraqlran exchange comes readlly Lo mlnd
Space NMD key
D|rected energy weapons key to successfu| weapon advantage and ba|||st|c m|ss||e defense
8ayram Devec| uocLoraLe aL naval osLgraduaLe School naval osLgraduaLe School ulrecLedLnergy Weapons lnvlslble and lnvlnclble?"
SepLember 2007 hLLp//wwwdLlcmll/cglbln/CeL18uoc?AuAuA473993LocaLlonu2docCeL18uocpdf
1 AdvanLages of ulrecLedLnergy Weapons 1here are several reasons for Lhe growlng lnLeresL ln dlrecLed
energy weapons 1he aLLracLlon of Lhe mlllLary Lo Lhese weapons ls clear when conslderlng Lhe unlque properLles Lhey brlng Lo Lhe
sLraLeglc operaLlonal and LacLlcal baLLlefleld 1he flrsL and mosL obvlous advanLage ls LhaL d|rectedenergy weapons de||ver
|etha| energy at the speed of ||ght 1h|s s|gn|f|cant advantage enab|es |nstant react|on to fast h|gh|y
maneuverab|e targets 1haL means many of Lhe prob|ems assoc|ated w|th a|m|ng and d|scharg|ng ex|st|ng
weapons are effect|ve|y e||m|nated because vlrLually no Llme elapses beLween flrlng a dlrecLedenergy weapon and lLs lmpacL on
Lhe LargeL 23 Avo|dance of co||atera| damage or ad[ustab|e energy |s the second advantage of d|rected
energy weapons 1oday's war menLallLy prefers Lhe opLlon Lo lnfllcL nonleLhal aLLacks prlor Lo Lhe use of leLhal force In contrast to
k|net|c and chem|ca| weapons that m|ght have devastat|ng and un|ntended co||atera| effects f|ex|b|e
engagement |eve|s dependent upon the transm|tted power and |rrad|at|on t|me makes the DL
weapons un|que and va|uab|e A Lhlrd lmporLanL aspecL of Lhe d|rectedenergy weapons ls LhaL Lhey are extreme|y
prec|se ulrecLedenergy weapons allow Lhe aLLackers employlng Lhem Lo selecL Lhe speclflc parL of a fasLmovlng LargeL LhaL Lhey wlsh Lo
sLrlke ln facL wlLh sufflclenL Lracklng and characLerlzaLlon Lhls unprecedenLed preclslon wlll accompllsh surglcal sLrlkes wlLh no collaLeral
damage or fraLrlcldal effecLs on frlendly forces 24 A fourLh lmporLanL feaLure of dlrecLedenergy weapons ls Lhelr freedom from gravlLaLlonal
llmlLs ulrecLedenergy beams are essenLlally lmmune Lo gravlLy due Lo Lhelr lack of mass whlch also frees Lhem from Lhe klnemaLlc and
aerodynamlc consLralnLs LhaL llmlL LradlLlonal weapons 2 A flfLh key feaLure of Lhe dlrecLedenergy weapons ls LhaL Lhey are area weapons LhaL
can engage mulLlple LargeLs wlLhln a hosLlle area wlLh mlnlmal prlor lnformaLlon on LhreaL characLerlsLlcs 1hey can affecL all LargeLs ln LhaL area
and can be rapldly reLargeLed Lo provlde proLecLlon ln several dlrecLlons 26 A s|xth d|rectedenergy weapon advantage |s
the|r deep magaz|nes wh|ch need on|y fue| and battery chargers as we|| as |ow operat|ng costs lor
example a LacLlcal hlghenergy laser shoL ls esLlmaLed Lo cosL abouL $8000 whereas flrlng a aLrloL (AC3) mlsslle cosLs $38 mllllon an AlM7
Sparrow mlsslle cosLs approxlmaLely $123000 and a 1omahawk crulse mlsslle cosLs roughly $600000 AlLhough Lhe beamgeneraLlng sysLem
may be expenslve Lo bulld and malnLaln Lhe prlce of engagemenLs ls mlnlmal because Lhe sysLem expends only energy 27 A flnal unlque
characLerlsLlc of dlrecLedenergy weapon ls Lhelr allweaLher aLLack capablllLy Lo reach vlrLually unLouchable LargeLs 1hey are
unaffected by weather and can penetrate deep |nto the earth enab||ng attacks on bur|ed bunkers as
we|| as targets |n space 28 2 LlmlLaLlons and roblems wlLh ulrecLedLnergy Weapons ulrecLedenergy weapons offer new ways of
flghLlng LhaL wlll change currenL docLrlnes LacLlcs and sLraLegles As wlLh Lhe lnLroducLlon of any new sysLems dlrecLed energy weapons also
have llmlLaLlons and drawbacks LhaL wlll Lend Lo mlLlgaLe Lhelr fasL growLh 1he flrsL problem faclng dlrecLed energy ls operaLlng under real
world condlLlons Whlle a new Lechnology llke dlrecLedenergy weapons are belng LranslLloned ouL of Lhe laboraLory Lo Lhe real baLLlegrounds
Lhere mlghL be relaLlvely slmple counLermeasures LhaL can resLrlcL Lhe effecLlveness of dlrecLedenergy weapons LhaL have been overlooked by
Lhose worklng ln Lhe laboraLorles and LhaL may be relaLlvely slmple Lo lmplemenL lraLrlclde ls probably Lhe second blggesL drawback ln uslng
Lhls Lechnology Some dlrecLedenergy weapons are noL very dlscrlmlnaLlng 8adlaLlng aL an enemy wlll noL only affecL Lhe LargeL sysLem buL
also anyLhlng else ln Lhe beam's paLh Any frlendly forces wlLhln Lhe fooLprlnL of Lhe beam wlll be aL slgnlflcanL rlsk 29 A Lhlrd greaL llmlLaLlon
of some Lypes of dlrecLedenergy weapons ls LhaL Lhey are hlghly suscepLlble Lo degradaLlon by Lhe aLmosphere ln Lhe presence of obscuranLs
wheLher naLural or manufacLured such as dusL clouds raln and smoke AnoLher poLenLlal llmlLaLlon ls damage or performancedegradlng
assessmenLs uue Lo llLLle dlrecLlyobservable feedback from Lhe LargeL as Lo Lhe effecLs of a hlL one may noL know poslLlvely lf a dlrecLed
energy weapon has been successful30 1he lasL concern regardlng dlrecLedenergy weapons ls relaLed Lo Lhelr usage agalnsL allled forces Plgh
powered mlcrowave weapons may be relaLlvely slmple for LerrorlsL forces (and oLhers) Lo acqulre and use ln an asymmeLrlc manner ln order Lo
counLer Lhls all elecLronlc plaLforms and weapon sysLems musL be hardened and shlelded 1able 3 summarlzes Lhe advanLages and
dlsadvanLages of dlrecLedenergy weapons Llke Lhelr sLrengLhs dlrecLedenergy weapons weaknesses dlffer from Lhose encounLered by
currenL Lechnologles and conLrlbuLe Lo Lhe lmpresslon LhaL Lhese weapons are very dlfferenL L|ke a|| other weapons d|rected
energy weapons have ||m|tat|ons and prob|ems Powever the|r potent|a| |nf|uence on the current
batt|ef|e|d strateg|es far outwe|ghs the|r ||m|tat|on L LllLC1S Cn 1A8CL1S 1here are varlous means of affecLlng LargeLs
uslng dlrecLedenergy weapons 1he followlng dlscusslon lncludes some of Lhe commonly used Lerms Lo dlscuss Lhese varlous means ueny ls a
Lemporary acLlon and lL ls deflned as Lhe ablllLy Lo ellmlnaLe Lhe enemy's operaLlonal capaclLy wlLhouL lnfllcLlng harm whereas degrade means
Lo achleve Lhls lmpacL wlLh mlnlmal ln[ury on Lhe enemy sysLems ueny and degrade are boLh slmllar ln LhaL Lhey boLh are nonpermanenL and
affecLed sysLems wlll reLurn Lo normal operaLlon wlLhln a perlod of Llme 24 1he concepL of damage lnvolves moderaLe ln[ury Lo lncapaclLaLe
Lhe enemy sysLems for a cerLaln perlod of Llme 1hls acLlon may be permanenL dependlng upon Lhe severlLy of Lhe aLLack llnally desLroy
reflecLs Lhe ldea of permanenL ln[ury on Lhe enemy sysLems whlch would be requlre LoLal replacemenL 31 ln prlnclple dependlng on some
condlLlons such as dlsLance beLween Lhe weapon and LargeL generaLed power and LargeLhardenlng level dlrecLedenergy weapons affecL
Lhelr LargeLs Lhrough elLher a sofLklll or a hardklll 1 SofLklll A sofLklll ls achleved when Lhe effecLs of a dlrecLedenergy weapon sLops
operaLlon of Lhe LargeL sysLem Lemporarlly As ls undersLood from Lhelr deflnlLlons above deny degrade and some damage effecLs are Lhe
pracLlcal meLhods of a sofLklll mechanlsm ulsrupLlng Lhe elecLronlcs of a gulded mlsslle causlng lL Lo mlss lLs LargeL or suppresslng or
damaglng vlslble lnfrared and mlcrowave sensors mlghL be glven as examples of a sofLklll 1he resulLs are a Lemporary loss of funcLlon buL
Lhey can serlously compromlse operaLlonal success A sofLklll by dlrecLedenergy weapons agalnsL human LargeLs means palnful sLlmulaLlon of
human nerves hearlng or skln AfLer braln Llssue absorbs an elecLromagneLlc pulse lL sllghLly buL rapldly expands and produces a supersonlc
wave whlch ls recelved by Lhe lnner ear lf Lhls pulse of energy exceeds a cerLaln Lhreshold and Lhe supersonlc wave ls Loo sLrong Lhe human
ear wlll noL funcLlon 32 1he AcLlve uenlal SysLem dlscussed ln a laLer chapLer ls an example of a dlrecLedenergy weapon whlch uses a sofLklll
mechanlsm by heaLlng up Lhe sklns surface 2 Pardklll Llke convenLlonal weapons dlrecLedenergy weapons can defeat the|r
targets by caus|ng phys|ca| damage to the structure of the targets A hardklll ls achleved when sufflclenL energy ls
dellvered lnLo Lhe LargeL sysLem such LhaL lL ls permanenLly damaged or desLroyed 33 Destroy|ng a ba|||st|c m|ss||e w|th an
a|rborne |aser dur|ng |ts boost phase by heat|ng me|t|ng or vapor|z|ng |ts sk|n |s an examp|e of a
hardk||| A hardklll can lnclude - SLrucLural damage - MelLlng of componenLs - ShorLlng ouL elecLronlcs - luslng and lmmoblllzlng movlng
parLs D|rectedenergy weapons have ad[ustab|e k||| mechan|sms as we|| as both hardk||| and softk|||
capac|t|es wh|ch makes them un|que |n compar|son to k|net|c energy weapons Instead of on|y
destroy|ng targets d|rectedenergy weapons have softk||| potent|a| wh|ch enab|es temporary
damage and degradat|on

Advantages

North korea
North korea |s deve|op|ng |ts m|ss||es capab|e now
8o|ton 411 !ohn 8 8olLon a former uS ambassador Lo Lhe unlLed naLlons ls a senlor
fellow aL Lhe Amerlcan LnLerprlse lnsLlLuLe norLh korea edges Loward nexL nuke LesL"
hLLp//wwwwashlngLonLlmescom/news/2011/[ul/14/norLhkoreaedgesLowardnexLnuke
LesL/
?ou wouldn'L know lL from Lhe Cbama admlnlsLraLlon buL norLh korea's global LhreaL conLlnues Lo meLasLaslze
SouLh korea recenLly concluded LhaL exLenslve cyberaLLacks agalnsL clvlllan and mlllLary LargeLs ln Lhe SouLh emanaLed from Lhe
uemocraLlc eople's 8epubllc of korea (u8k) lollowlng Chlna's lead ln lnformaLlon warfare Lhe norLh ls creaLlng yeL anoLher asymmeLrlc
mlllLary capablllLy lL can deploy agalnsL lLs adversarles and also peddle for hard currency Lo oLher rogue sLaLes and LerrorlsLs AlLhough
yongyang llmlLed lLs LargeLlng of Lhls parLlcular sorLle Lo SouLh korea Lhe poLenLlal cyberwarfare baLLlefleld ls global and lncludes Lhe
unlLed SLaLes whlch already ls Lhe sub[ecL of exLenslve cyberproblng explolLaLlon and esplonage by Chlna lor a counLry perennlally on Lhe
brlnk of sLarvaLlon norLh korea's mlllLary foray lnLo cyberspace demonsLraLes lLs conLlnulng malevolence 1he u8k's nuclear
weapons program has noL resLed on lLs laurels elLher wlLh wldely observed surfacelevel
preparaLlons for a posslble Lhlrd underground LesL well under way 1he norLh's developmenL
of balllsLlc mlsslles capable of dellverlng nuclear payloads ls also advanclng apace as 8usslan
mlsslle deslgner ?url Solomonov hlghllghLed lasL monLh ln a kommersanL lnLervlew 1hls ls hardly
surprlslngly glven lran's lncreaslng longrange capablllLles Lhe exLenslve 1ehranyongyang
collaboraLlon and Lhelr programs' common base ln SovleLera Scud mlsslle Lechnology
Meanwhlle aklsLan's AC khan has released documenLs purporLedly showlng prlor norLh
korean brlbery of senlor lslamabad offlclals Lo grease Lhe Lransfer of nuclear or balllsLlc
mlsslle Lechnology Whlle Lhelr auLhenLlclLy ls dlspuLed Lhe documenLs are parL of Mr khan's conLlnulng campalgn Lo prove he
dld noL acL solo ln Lhe world's llllclL nuclearweapons bazaar Pe long ago admlLLed supplylng norLh korea and
lran wlLh crlLlcal nuclear Lechnology yongyang's unvelllng ln november of lmpresslve new uranlumenrlchmenL faclllLles
aL ?ongbyon and recenL consLrucLlon Lhere show Lhe conLlnulng frulLs of Mr khan's enLrepreneurshlp Pls documenLs and Lhe many
oLhers he undoubLedly has ln a shoebox somewhere are worLh verlfylng and acLually mlghL help lslamabad and WashlngLon work
LogeLher Lo repalr Lhelr fracLured relaLlonshlp and prevenL Chlna from explolLlng Lhelr currenL dlfferences Clearly norLh korea's
weapons programs are noL deceleraLlng even amld lnLenslve preparaLlons for a posslble
LranslLlon of power followlng klm !ongll's deaLh Lo a Lhlrd member of Lhe communlsL klm dynasLy 8uL faced wlLh Lhese
challenges Lhe Cbama admlnlsLraLlon has been noL only publlcly sllenL buL essenLlally passlve
boLh dlplomaLlcally and lnLellecLually Cnly Lhe enLagon and Lhe lnLelllgence communlLy forLunaLely sLlll lmplemenLlng
Lhe rollferaLlon SecurlLy lnlLlaLlve have done much beyond noLlng pro forma LhaL Lhe Lroublemaklng u8k ls sLlll aL lL

n|gh r|sk of ||m|ted |aunches even on|y part|a||y effect|ve space nmd so|ves
LvereLL Do|man hu and rofessor of ComparaLlve MlllLary SLudles [ uS Alr lorce School of
Advanced Alr and Space SLudles and 8eclplenL of CenLral lnLelllgence's CuLsLandlng lnLelllgence
AnalysL Award and Penry Cooper lormer uepuLy for Lhe SLraLeglc and Space SysLems of Lhe
uCu and Chalrman of Plgh lronLelr a nonproflL organlzaLlon sLudylng lssues of mlsslle defense
and space 2 ChapLer 19 lncreaslng Lhe MlllLary uses of Space" arL of 1oward a 1heory
of Spacepower" LdlLed by Charles LuLes and eLer Pays naLlonal uefense unlverslLy ress
hLLp//wwwnduedu/press/llb/pdf/spacepower/spacepowerpdf
1oday a masslve exchange ls less llkely Lhan aL any perlod of Lhe Cold War ln parL because of
slgnlflcanL reducLlons ln Lhe prlmary naLlons nuclear arsenals 1he most ||ke|y and mosL
dangerous threat comes from a slngle or ||m|ted m|ss||e |aunch and from sources that are
un||ke|y to be e|ther rat|ona| or pred|ctab|e 1he flrsL ls an accldenLal launch a LhreaL we
avolded maklng proLecLlons agalnsL due Lo Lhe poLenLlally desLablllzlng effecL on Lhe precarlous
Cold War balance 1haL an accldenLal launch by deflnlLlon undeLerrable would Loday hlL lLs
LargeL ls almosL lncomprehenslble More llkely Lhan an accldenLal launch ls Lhe lnLenLlonal
launch of one or a few mlsslles elLher by a nonsLaLe acLor (a LerrorlsL or rogue boaL capLaln as
Lhe scenarlo was descrlbed ln Lhe early 1980s) or a rogue sLaLe aLLempLlng Lo maxlmlze damage
as a prelude Lo broader confllcL 1hls ls especlally llkely ln Lhe underdeveloped Lheorles
perLalnlng Lo deLerrlng LhlrdparLy sLaLes 1he UnlLed SLaLes can do noth|ng today to prevent
Ind|a from |aunch|ng a nuc|ear attack aga|nst ak|stan (or vlce versa) except threaten
reta||at|on If Iran shou|d |aunch a nuc|ear m|ss||e at Israe| or |n a preemptory str|ke Israe|
shou|d attempt the reverse Amer|ca and the wor|d cou|d on|y s|t back and watch hoplng LhaL
a poLenLlally worlddesLroylng confllcL dld noL spln ouL of conLrol When resldenL 8eagan
announced hls deslre for a mlsslle shleld ln 1983 crlLlcs polnLed ouL LhaL even lf a 99percenL
rellable defense from space could be achleved a 10000warhead salvo by Lhe SovleL unlon sLlll
allowed for Lhe deLonaLlon of 100 nuclear bombs ln Amerlcan clLlesand boLh we and Lhe
SovleLs had enough mlsslles Lo make such an aLLack plauslble 8uL |f a s|ng|e m|ss||e were
|aunched out of the b|ue from deep w|th|n the As|an |andmass today for whaLever reason a
spacebased m|ss||e defense system w|th percent re||ab|||ty wou|d be a godsend And lf a
uS space defense could lnLercepL a slngle Scud mlsslle launched by LerrorlsLs from a shlp near
Amerlcas coasLs before lL deLonaLed a nuclear warhead 100 mlles upcreaLlng an
elecLromagneLlc pulse LhaL shuLs down Amerlcas powergrld halLs Amerlcas banklng and
commerce and reduces Lhe baLLlefleld for Amerlcas mlllLary Lo Lhlrd world sLaLus8lL mlghL
provlde for Lhe very survlval of our way of llfe
n|gh r|sk of war on the korean en|nsu|a past defense doesn't app|y
uouglas P aa| vlce presldenL for sLudles aL Lhe Carnegle LndowmenL for lnLernaLlonal eace
and as unofflclal uS represenLaLlve Lo 1alwan as dlrecLor of Lhe Amerlcan lnsLlLuLe ln 1alwan
12192 1he 8lse of Chlna and Alllance ln LasL Asla"
hLLp//webcachegoogleuserconLenLcom/search?qcache1M[zox8l3v8!hlbalducom/red_aler
L/blog/lLem/1cf72e38346b3133b9998f08hLml+L2809CLenslons+ln+Lhls+reglon+are+dlffer
enL+and+hlgher+Loday+from+whaL+Lhey+wereL2809ucd2hlencLclnkglusclle
nLflrefoxa
1h|s |s a key moment 1he rlse of Chlna ls apparenL 1he decllne of Lhe unlLed SLaLes ls everywhere assumed 1he lmpllcaLlons are
[usL now unfoldlng lorLunaLely Lhe lssues before Lhls conference are noL matters of war and peace aL Lhe presenL Llme Lhough
plalnly Lenslons ln Lhls reglon are d|fferent and h|gher today from what they were a year ago WlLh luck sklll
and good ldeas confllcL wlll be on Lhe farLhesL shelf of opLlons for a very long Llme Warwhlch hlsLory Leaches us ls never unLhlnkable
neverLheless would be so devasLaLlng wlLh Lhe modern Lechnologles of deaLh LhaL lL would surely wreck whaLever dreams we may have for Lhe
LwenLyflrsL cenLury noL all Lhe news ls worrlsome 1he reducLlon ln Lenslons wlLnessed across Lhe 1alwan SLralL over Lhe pasL Lwo years glves
me lncreaslng confldence LhaL Lhe LranslLlons LhaL are occurrlng ln Lhe worldand ln Lhe LasL Aslan reglon ln parLlcularhave Lhe poLenLlal Lo
be managed peacefully 1he agreemenL Lhls year over Lhe Lconomlc CooperaLlon lramework AgreemenL (LClA) sLands ouL as a parLlcularly
lmporLanL mllesLone lL promlses lmproved Lerms of Lrade once lL goes lnLo force on !anuary 1 and lL opens Lhe door Lo malnLalnlng 1alwan's
compeLlLlveness ln an era of prollferaLlng free and preferenLlal Lrade agreemenLs 1alwan's recenL speclal munlclpallLy elecLlons moreover
suggesL LhaL Lhe prevlous yawnlng chasm beLween Lhe Lwo ma[or parLles hereon Lhe quesLlon of pollcy Loward Lhe malnlandhas been
reduced Lo an lmporLanL degree SlgnlflcanL dlfferences remaln Lo be sure buL l remember vlvldly how on a March day ln 2008 Creen
supporLers LhoughL Lhelr parLy was flnlshed and 1alwan would become a mere provlnce of Chlna l Lhlnk Lhe resulLs LhaL we see Lodaya
vlbranL LwoparLy sysLem seeklng Lo wln Lhe voLers ln Lhe mlddle and avoldlng exLreme poslLlonsspeak Lo Lhe wlsdom of Lhe democraLlc paLh
Lo whlch boLh parLles are commlLLed lL aLLesLs Lo Lhe fundamenLal common sense of 1alwan's voLers wrlL large 1hls ls someLhlng my menLor
Ambassador !lm Lllley Lold me repeaLedly always Lo LrusL and never Lo forgeL 8uL lf 1alwan's maln challenges are less aL home Loday Lhan Lhey
were a few years ago l Lhlnk we can say Lhey lncreaslngly wlll come from Lhe lnLernaLlonal arena 1hey are boLh poslLlve and negaLlve
cha||enges and |nc|ude * An apparenL shlfL ln Lhe globe's cenLer of gravlLy Lo Lhls reglon * 1he sLlll embryonlc naLure of Lhe reglon's
securlLy and economlc archlLecLure * Unreso|ved c|a|ms on each oLher's terr|tor|es and seas * 1he reglon's
h|stor|ca| enm|t|es and * A sense that the o|d g|oba| secur|ty structure that stab|||zed re|at|ons
among the b|g powersso that the sma|| powers cou|d prosper|s now erod|ng and ra|s|ng
r|sks to a|| AfLer decades of paylng llp servlce Lo Lhe mlgraLlon of Lrade and caplLal Lo Lhe Aslaaclflc wlLhouL havlng ad[usLed Lhe posL
8reLLon Woods lnLernaLlonal economlc lnsLlLuLlons Lhe world h1as been [olLed by Lhe recenL flnanclal crlsls lnLo maklng long overdue reforms
1he C20whlch as far as l can Lell ls more accuraLely someLhlng llke Lhe C24 or C27 dependlng on whom you counLhas emerged as a key
addlLlon Lo global economlc governance brlnglng lndla !apan SouLh korea AusLralla lndonesla and Chlna Lo a Lable LhaL Lhey should be aL
when Lhelr equlLles are aL sLake Moreover Lhe lnLernaLlonal flnanclal lnsLlLuLlons of Lhe World 8ank and lnLernaLlonal MoneLary lund have
ad[usLed Lhelr voLlng shares Lo reflecL Lhe rlse of emerglng economles 1he Aslanaclflc Lconomlc CooperaLlon (ALC) conLlnues Lo gaLher Lhe
reglon's leaders and economlc mlnlsLers buL lL cerLalnly remalns dlsappolnLlng compared Lo lLs early promlse 1here ls a hope LhaL Lhls year
wlLh Lhe unlLed SLaLes as hosL a more amblLlous ALC agenda can be aLLempLed 1he Cbama admlnlsLraLlon's abouLface on Lrade and recenL
success ln concludlng Lhe uSSouLh korean kC8uS free Lrade agreemenL offers a suggesLlon of whaL can be done Lo bulld ouL Lrade
llberallzaLlon under Lhe 11rans aclflc arLnershlp lorLunaLely 1alwan remalns a respecLed parLlclpanL ln ALC 8uL Lhe newesL addlLlon
Lo Lhe reglon's archlLecLure Lhe LasL Aslan SummlL (LAS)whlch holds some early hopes of belng a pollLlcal and securlLy mechanlsm Lo manage
Lhe reglon's lssuesexcludes 1alwan lL remalns unreasonable LhaL so lmporLanL a Lradlng and lnvesLmenL parLlclpanL ln Lhe reglon's economy
cannoL be found a proper seaL ln Lhe LAS 1he assorLmenL of offlclal meeLlngs and Lask forces assoclaLed wlLh Lhe AssoclaLlon of SouLheasL
Aslan naLlons (ASLAn) conLlnues Lo soldler on and grow promlslng more Lhan dellverlng 8uL 1alwan remalns an ouLslder even Lhere WhaL ls
more lL ls old Lhlnklng LhaL prevenLs 1alwan from placlng lLs people ln Lhe lMl Lhe World 8ank and oLher unrelaLed agencles Surely Lhere
can be greaLer accommodaLlon Lo 1alwan's reallLles all Lhe more so as Lhe pollLlcal agenda ln 1alwan has shlfLed from confronLaLlon over
lndependenceLhrough consLrucLlve amblgulLy on lssues of soverelgnLyLo a debaLe over Lhe means and pace of longLerm coexlsLence and
conclllaLlon 1hls pasL year has wlLnessed Lhe reemergence of longdormanL Lenslons over dlspuLed LerrlLorles ln Lhe Senkaku/ulaoyu lslands
Lhe SouLh Chlna Sea and over rlghLs Lo exerclse forces ln Lhe ?ellow Sea 1alwan has a dlrecL lnLeresL ln Lwo of Lhe Lhree and more Lhan a
passlng lnLeresL ln Lhe ouLcome of Lhe exchange of words beLween WashlngLon and 8el[lng over Lhe ?ellow Sea M|ssteps and
overreact|ons were abundant ln Lhe recenL spaL over Lhe Senkaku/ulaoyu lslands and norLh korea's mlsbehavlor 1hey
demonstrated that there |s amp|e m|strust between 8el[lng and 1okyo Seou| and yongyang r|or
to th|s year there were small buL encourag|ng s|gns LhaL cooperaLlon among Chlna !apan and korea could become Lhe
domlnanL moLlf ln norLheasL Asla Lhrough Lhelr many meeLlngs ln Lhe varlous reglonal fora Lhe Slx arLy 1alks cooperaLlon under Lhe
Chlangmal lnlLlaLlve and Lhelr LrllaLeral swap commlLmenLs 1he lasL ls an arrangemenL Lo whlch 1alwan could consLrucLlvely conLrlbuLe 8uL
unt|| the recent tens|onsf|red by anc|ent enm|t|es and newer m|sca|cu|at|onsare eased
th|s pattern w||| be d|ff|cu|t to restart
Conf||ct |nev|tab|e
Slmon 1ay chalrman of Lhe Slngapore lnsLlLuLe of lnLernaLlonal Affalrs 12302 Aslas
unsLable rlse" hLLp//webcachegoogleuserconLenLcom/search?qcache9v72ck3_C
M!wwwnaLlonmulLlmedlacom/2010/12/30/oplnlon/AslasunsLablerlse
30143440hLml+L2809CLhe+reglon+ls+exposed+Lo+conLlnulng+sources+of+lnsLablllLyL2
809u+L2809Ceven+fundamenLal+peaceL2809ucd2hlencLclnkgluscll
enLflrefoxa
Many commenLaLors are heraldlng As|as rlse ln Lhe wake of Lhe global flnanclal crlsls Compared Lo Lhe uS and Lurope prospecLs ln Lhe
reglon do look good LvenLs boLh recenL and over Lhe year however warn us noL Lo assume Lhe phenomenon ls lrreslsLlble Whlle rlslng Lhe
reglon |s exposed to cont|nu|ng sources of |nstab|||ty 1he currenL Lurmoll on Lhe korean penlnsula demonsLraLes Lhls
vlvldly An unresolved rellc of Lhe Cold War yongyangs nuc|ear amb|t|ons have been d|ff|cu|t to dea| w|th
desp|te the d|p|omat|c efforts of Lhe slxparLy Lalks 8uL lL lsnL nuclear warheads LhaL have creaLed Lhe currenL Lurmoll A
Lorpedo sank Lhe SouLh korean navy vessel Cheonan ln March and on november 20 arLlllery shells pummelled SouLh korean mlllLary and
clvlllan lnsLallaLlons on Lhe dlspuLed lsland of ?eongpyeong Standard weapons are more than enough to create a
new sense of uncerta|nty Noth|ng done s|nce March has rebu||t stab|||ty never mlnd LhaL SouLh korea ls
a ma[or economy and hosLed Lhe recenL C20 summlL Lhe flrsL ln Asla Lconomlc growLh ln Lhe counLry as ln much of Asla ls bullL on a Lenuous
foundaLlon of peace unable Lo manage Lhe slLuaLlon Seoul has relnvlgoraLed lLs old alllance wlLh Lhe uS 1les wlLh Chlna are lnevlLably
affecLed Llke mosL Aslans SouLh koreans look Lo Lhe Chlnese economy Lo drlve growLh lL ls lndeed one of Lhe few counLrles ln Asla Lo en[oy a
Lrade surplus wlLh Chlna 1here was earller Lalk abouL a free Lrade agreemenL wlLh Chlna elLher bllaLerally or lncludlng !apan as a Lhlrd parLner
Such economlc dlplomacy now looks less llkely Chlna ls Lhe only counLry belleved Lo be able Lo lnfluence yongyang 8uL whaL 8el[lng has done
slnce March ls [udged by many ln SouLh korea as belng less Lhan helpful 1hls hlghllghLs a second quesLlon abouL Lhe rlse of Asla Lhe role and
aLLlLude of Chlna 1here ls no slngle Asla Much depends perhaps Loo much on Lhls glanL LhaL ls changlng as lL rlses Lconomlcally Chlna ls Lhe
hub for Lhe reglons fuLure growLh lnLerdependence ln Lrade and lnvesLmenL beLween SouLh korea !apan Asean and even 1alwan especlally
afLer Lhelr Chlnese free Lrade agreemenL ls real and growlng 1he plcLure ln SouLh Asla Loo ls slmllar wlLh Chlna now lndlas number one Lrade
parLner ollLlcally however 8el[lng has been much less aLLracLlve ln 2010 1he korean lssue comes on Lop of conLroversles wlLh Asean
members ln Lhe SouLh Chlna Sea as well as Lhe dlspuLe wlLh !apan over Lhe Senkaku lslands 1hese sLeps were surprlslng as Chlna has for over a
decade soughL Lo befrlend and charm Asean nelghbours 1he currenL leaders ln 1okyo also wanL beLLer Lles wlLh 8el[lng vlslLlng lndla ln
uecember for Lhe flrsL Llme ln flve years Chlnese remler Wen slgned off on buslness deals worLh uS$16 bllllon 8uL Lhe underlylng
compeLlLlon beLween Lhe Lwo Aslan glanLs conLlnues Lo slmmer 1here ls sLraLeglc compeLlLlon over sea power as well as dlsLanL polnLs ln Lhe
Plmalayas and pollLlcal lnfluence as lndla vles for a seaL on Lhe un SecurlLy Councll where Chlna ls Lhe only currenL Aslan permanenL
represenLaLlve 1haL Lhe Chlnese leader wenL on Lo vlslL aklsLan also dld noL escape noLlce Many ln new uelhl belleve 8el[lng conLlnues Lo
supporL Lhelr old rlval ln order Lo preoccupy lndla Lven ln economlc relaLlons Lrade Lenslons underscore Lhe lncrease ln flows and lndla has
slapped Larlffs on a range of Chlnese lmporLs lncludlng ln Lhe Lelecoms secLor 1he naLure of Chlna and lLs dlplomacy ls belng LesLed and how
8el[lng has acLed and wlll acL ln Lhe comlng monLhs wlll be [udged as showlng lLs characLer as lL grows Some already ascrlbe amblLlon and
arrogance Lo Chlna whlle oLhers wlll walL and see ercepLlons wlll shape how oLher Aslans reacL Pow Lhe Chlnese leadershlp approaches Lhe
uSChlna SummlL Lo be held ln !anuary wlll be looked aL carefully noL only by Amerlcans buL by oLher Aslans lL ls Lo Aslas credlL LhaL Lhrough
Lhe flnanclal crlsls and 2010 Lhe reglon has conLlnued Lo rlse 8uL cha||enges |n 2 may be even tougher noL only ln
economlcs buL Lhe underlylng pollLlcs CrowLh wlll be LesLed buL even fundamenta| peace and stab|||ty w||| come
under stress Compared Lo Lhe developed world Asla may be Lhe only reglon expecLed Lo show sLrong growLh buL LhaL does noL mean
Asla ls ready Lo be alone

Iran
Iran |s deve|op|ng |ts m|ss||es capab|e now
DAkLINI 6211 All Akbar uarelnl AssoclaLe ress wrlLer lran Mlsslle progress shows
sancLlons fuLlle" hLLp//newsyahoocom/lranmlsslleprogressshowssancLlonsfuLlle
162422024hLml
lrans defense mlnlsLer clalmed SaLurday LhaL Lhe counLrys mlsslle progress shows LhaL un
sancLlons are lneffecLlve and wonL sLop 1ehrans defense programs 1he sLaLemenL by Cen Ahmad
vahldl comes durlng 10 days of war games ln lrans laLesL show of mlllLary mlghL and dlsplays whaL 1ehran clalms ls
growlng selfsufflclency ln mlllLary and oLher Lechnologles vahldl sald lrans mlsslle program ls
lndlgenous and has no rellance on forelgn counLrles Lo meeL lLs defense requlremenLs lran ls
under four seLs of un sancLlons over lLs refusal Lo halL uranlum enrlchmenL a Lechnology LhaL can be used Lo produce nuclear fuel or
aLomlc weapons LasL week lran unvelled underground mlsslle sllos for Lhe flrsL Llme maklng lrans
arsenal less vulnerable Lo any posslble aLLack lrans 8evoluLlonary Cuard Lhe counLrys mosL
powerful mlllLary force sald Lhe lslamlc 8epubllc has Lhe ablllLy Lo produce mlsslles wlLh a
greaLer range Lhan Lhose currenLly ln lLs arsenal buL doesnL need Lo do so 1he upgraded
verslon of lrans Shahab3 and Sa[[ll2 mlsslles already can Lravel up Lo 1240 mlles (2000
kllomeLers) puLLlng lsrael uS bases ln Lhe Culf reglon and parLs Lurope wlLhln reach 1he
war games show lrans greaL capablllLy ln deslgnlng produclng and uslng varlous klnds of mlsslles based on domesLlc knowledge 1hls
showed LhaL Lhe sancLlons lmposed had no effecL on lrans mlsslle program vahldl sald ln commenLs posLed on sepahnewscom Lhe
Cuards offlclal webslLe lran has perlodlcally boasLed of whaL lL calls homegrown advances ln Lechnologlcal secLors such as lLs saLelllLe
program and oLher sclenLlflc work
Iran has a deve|oped m|ss||e program and |s a threat recent tests prove
UI (Slnce 1907 unlLed ress lnLernaLlonal (ul) has been a leadlng provlder of crlLlcal lnformaLlon Lo medla
ouLleLs buslnesses governmenLs and researchers worldwlde) 1ehran (ul) uec 16 2009 by SLaff WrlLers lrans
mlsslle LesL almed aL uS lsrael"
hLLp//wwwspacewarcom/reporLs/lrans_mlsslle_LesL_almed_aL_uS_lsrael_999hLml Accessed 9/3/11 L1
Iran c|a|med to have successfu||y tested an advanced varlanL of |ts Sa[[||2 ba|||st|c m|ss||e
Wednesday Lhumblng lLs nose aL posslble alr and mlsslle sLrlkes by Lhe unlLed SLaLes and lsrael Lo crlpple lLs nuclear amblLlons 8uL as Lenslons
ln Lhe Culf swell once more Lhe Amerlcans say Lhey wlll conducL a LesL of Lhelr own ln !anuary counLerlng a slmulaLed lranlan mlsslle aLLack
1haL wlll be carrled ouL by Lhe uS Mlsslle uefense Agency ln Lhe aclflc where mosL of Lhe agencys faclllLles are locaLed 1he Sa[[||
test lf lndependenLly conflrmed wou|d under||ne an acce|erated m|ss||e deve|opment
program by 1ehran that has been g|ven some urgency by recent po||t|ca| deve|opments mosL
noLably Lhe apparenL breakdown ln uS efforLs Lo negoLlaLe a deal wlLh lran on lLs conLroverslal
nuclear program 1he twostage Sa[[||2 |s powered by so||d fue| wh|ch g|ves |t greater range
and accuracy Lhan Lhe llquldfueled Shehab3 weapons LhaL currenLly consLlLuLe lrans sLraLeglc mlsslle force 1he Sa[[ll1 was flrsL LesL
flred on nov 12 2008 and bore a sLrlklng resemblance Lo anoLher mlsslle Lhe Ashura fllghLLesLed a year earller 1he Sa[[ll2 reporLedly
equlpped wlLh a more advanced guldance sysLem underwenL lLs flrsL fllghL LesL ln May Another test was conducted |n
September uefense MlnlsLer Ahmad Vah|d| who ArgenLlna has accused of masLermlndlng Lhe !uly 1994 bomblng of a
!ewlsh cenLer ln 8uenos Alres LhaL kllled 83 people announced LhaL Lhe LesL was deslgned Lo bolsLer lrans deLerrenL capablllLles Pe gave no
deLalls such as lLs range buL sa|d |t |s faster and more accurate Lhan Lhe Shehab and has radarevad|ng capab|||ty Al Alam
lrans Arablclanguage saLelllLe Lelevlslon sald Lhe Sa[[ll2 has a longer range Lhan Lhe Shehab3 1he lranlans say LhaL has a range of up Lo 1230
mlles sufflclenL Lo reach lsrael lranlan 1v showed a mlsslle launched ln deserL Lerraln probably Lhe flrlng range ln Lhe CreaL SalL ueserL souLh
of 1ehran 8uL Lhere was no lmmedlaLe lndependenL verlflcaLlon LhaL Lhere had acLually been a LesL launch or LhaL lL lnvolved a new verslon of
Lhe Sa[[ll2 MosL WesLern mlsslle experts say Iran has acce|erated |ts ba|||st|c m|ss||e program over Lhe
lasL couple of years as re|at|ons w|th the UnlLed SLaLes and lsrael became more fraught 1he
lranlans boasL LhaL Lhelr mlsslle forces can now LargeL lsraels nuclear faclllLles lLs sLraLeglc bases and maln clLles and would be unleashed lf Lhe
lslamlc 8epubllc came under aLLack Cne of Lhe consequences of Lhe lranlans shlfL Lo solld fuel from Lhe more cumbersome llquld fuel ls LhaL
balllsLlc mlsslles can be malnLalned aL lnsLanL readlness fully fueled 1hose uslng llquld propellanL have Lo be fueled before Lhey can be
launched a dellcaLe process LhaL can Lake hours 1haL makes lL easler for spy saLelllLes Lo deLecL Lhem and for preempLlve sLrlkes Lo be
launched Lo knock Lhem ouL 1he lranlans use of a LwosLage boosLer rockeL known as Lhe Saflr2 a varlanL of Lhe Shehab3 Lo launch Lhelr
flrsL saLelllLe lnLo LarLh orblL ln lebruary marked a ma[or Lechnologlcal breakLhrough ln 1ehrans drlve Lo develop lnLerconLlnenLal balllsLlc
mlsslles It was c|ear that the Iran|ans had overcome the comp|ex prob|em of separaLlng Lhe
second sLage carrylng Lhe saLelllLe ln fllghL from Lhe rockeL boosLer 1hats a key e|ement |n
produc|ng an IC8M Accordlng Lo one uS analysL aL Lhe Llme Lhe mlsslle carrylng Lhe saLelllLe can be used Lo carry nuclear
warheads Lo lsrael and Lo Lurope 1he world has noL found a way Lo sLop or slow down lrans nuclear weapons program 1hls means an
lsraell aLLack on lran ls becomlng more llkely 1he counLdown Loward an lsraell aLLack on lrans nuclear program has begun 1haL may be
oversLaLlng Lhe case buL Lhe rapld acceleraLlon of lrans mlsslle developmenL has caused unease ln lsrael whlch vlews Lhe nuclear program as
an exlsLenLlal LhreaL lnlLlally aL leasL many ln Lhe WesL were dlsmlsslve of Lhe lebruary saLelllLe launch 8uL uzl kub|n former dlrecLor of
lsraels 8alllsLlc Mlsslle uefense CrganlzaLlon caut|oned As wlLh Lhe 1937 launch of Lhe 8usslan SpuLnlk Lhe world should noL be
alarmed by Lhe saLelllLe buL by Lhe mlsslle carrylng lL 1he lranlans long sLudenLs of norLh korean mlsslle Lechnology have now surpassed
Lhelr LuLors the Saf|r2 |s the bas|s for a future Iran|an |ntercont|nenta| ba|||st|c m|ss||e

n|gh r|sk of Iran|an be|||gerence the US w||| be vu|nerab|e to m|ss||es by 2
8rlnLon 1urner Spacenews sLaff wrlLer 9272 Spacenews CC ledges 1o lully lund Mlsslle
uefense" hLLp//spacenewscom/pollcy/100927goppledgesfundmlsslledefensehLml
8epubllcan members of Lhe uS Pouse of 8epresenLaLlves on SepL 23 unvelled a new ledge Lo
Amerlca" pollcy agenda LhaL lncludes freezlng nonmlllLary spendlng and resLorlng mlsslle defense
fundlng LhaL lL says ls needed Lo proLecL Lhe unlLed SLaLes from a balllsLlc mlsslle aLLack from lran
1here |s rea| concern that wh||e the threat from Iran|an |nLerconLlnenLal balllsLlc mlsslles cou|d
mater|a||ze as ear|y as 2 the government's m|ss||e defense po||cy |s not pro[ected to cover the US
home|and unt|| 22" Lhe documenL sLaLes We wlll work Lo ensure crlLlcal fundlng ls resLored Lo
proLecL Lhe uS homeland and our allles from mlsslle LhreaLs from rogue sLaLes such as lran and norLh
korea" 1he admlnlsLraLlon of uS resldenL 8arack Cbama lasL year overhauled plans for defendlng
Luropean allles and deployed forces from balllsLlc mlsslles under Lhe prevlous admlnlsLraLlon's plan
groundbased lnLercepLors were Lo be placed ln oland ln 2013 Cbama's plan wlll be lmplemenLed ln
four phases sLarLlng wlLh deploylng Aegls 8alllsLlc Mlsslle uefense shlps Lo Luropean waLers as soon as
2011 Lo defend agalnsL shorL and medlumrange LhreaLs A new Aeg|s |nterceptor capab|e of defeat|ng
IC8Ms |s not p|anned to be ready unt|| 22 W|th the most recent US |nte|||gence est|mates stat|ng
that Iran cou|d have an IC8M capab|||ty by 2 Pouse 8epubllcans say Lhe unlLed SLaLes may face a
flveyear vulnerablllLy Lo an lranlan lC8M
Successfu| detonat|on wou|d generate LM devastates the US |nfrastructure and
k|||s m||||ons
8y kenneLh 8 1|mmerman (ls a [ournallsL pollLlcal wrlLer and conservaLlve 8epubllcan acLlvlsL who ln 2000
was a candldaLe for Lhe 8epubllcan nomlnaLlon for uS SenaLor from Maryland 1lmmerman ls execuLlve dlrecLor
of Lhe loundaLlon for uemocracy ln lran an organlzaLlon LhaL works Lo supporL democraLlc movemenLs ln lran)
1uesday 29 !ul 28 0900 AM uS lnLel lran lans nuclear SLrlke on uS"
hLLp//wwwnewsmaxcom/newsfronL/lrannuclearplan/2008/07/29/ld/324724 Accessed 9/3/11 L1
1he comm|ss|on warned ln a reporL lssued ln Aprll that the Un|ted States was at r|sk of a sneak nuc|ear
attack by a rogue nat|on or a LerrorlsL group deslgned to take out our nat|on's cr|t|ca| |nfrastructure If
even a crude nuc|ear weapon were detonated anywhere between 4 k||ometers to 4
k||ometers above the earth |n a sp||tsecond |t wou|d generate an elecLromagneLlc pulse LM that
wou|d cr|pp|e m|||tary and c|v|||an commun|cat|ons power transportat|on water food and
other |nfrastructure the report warned Wh||e not caus|ng |mmed|ate c|v|||an casua|t|es the
nearterm |mpact on US soc|ety wou|d dwarf the damage of a d|rect nuc|ear str|ke on a US
c|ty 1he flrsL lndlcaLlon of such an aLLack would be LhaL Lhe power would go ouL and some buL noL all Lhe LelecommunlcaLlons would go
ouL We would noL physlcally feel anyLhlng ln our bodles" Craham sald As elecLrlc power waLer and gas dellvery sysLems falled Lhere would
be Lruly masslve Lrafflc [ams" Craham added slnce modern auLomoblles and slgnallng sysLems all depend on sophlsLlcaLed elecLronlcs LhaL
would be dlsabled by Lhe LM wave So you would be walklng ?ou wouldn'L be drlvlng aL LhaL polnL" Craham sald And lL wouldn'L do any
good Lo call Lhe malnLenance or repalr people because Lhey wouldn'L be able Lo geL Lhere even lf you could geL Lhrough Lo Lhem" 1he
food d|str|but|on system a|so wou|d gr|nd to a ha|t as coldsLorage warehouses sLockplllng perlshables wenL offllne
Lven warehouses equlpped wlLh backup dlesel generaLors would fall because we wouldn'L be able Lo pump Lhe fuel lnLo Lhe Lrucks and geL
Lhe Lrucks Lo Lhe warehouses" Craham sald 1he Un|ted States "wou|d qu|ck|y revert to an ear|y th century
type of country" excepL LhaL we would have 10 Llmes as many people wlLh Len Llmes fewer resources he sald "Most of the
th|ngs we depend upon wou|d be gone and we wou|d ||tera||y be depend|ng on our own
assets and those we cou|d reach by wa|k|ng to them" raham sa|d Amerlca would begln Lo resemble Lhe
2002 1v serles !eremlah" whlch deplcLs a world berefL of law lnfrasLrucLure and memory ln Lhe 1v serles an unspeclfled vlrus wlpes ouL Lhe
enLlre adulL populaLlon of Lhe planeL ln an LM aLLack Lhe casualLles would be caused by our almosL LoLal dependence on Lechnology for
everyLhlng from food and waLer Lo hosplLal care WlLhln a week or Lwo of Lhe aLLack people would sLarL dylng Craham says eople ln
hosplLals would be dylng fasLer Lhan LhaL because Lhey depend on power Lo sLay allve 8uL Lhen lL would go Lo waLer food clvll auLhorlLy
emergency servlces And we would end up wlLh a counLry wlLh many many people noL survlvlng Lhe evenL" Asked [usL how many Amerlcans
would dle lf lran were Lo launch Lhe LM aLLack lL appears Lo be preparlng Craham gave a chllllng reply ?ou have Lo go back lnLo Lhe 1800s Lo
look aL Lhe slze of populaLlon" LhaL could survlve ln a naLlon deprlved of mechanlzed agrlculLure LransporLaLlon power waLer and
communlcaLlon "I'd have to say that to percent of the popu|at|on wou|d not be susta|nab|e
after th|s k|nd of attack" he sa|d Amer|ca wou|d be reduced to a core of around 3 m||||on
peop|e abouL Lhe number LhaL exlsLed ln Lhe decades afLer Amerlca's lndependence from CreaL 8rlLaln 1he modern elecLronlc economy
would shuL down and Amerlca would mosL llkely reverL Lo an earller economy based on barLer" Lhe LM commlsslon's reporL on CrlLlcal
naLlonal lnfrasLrucLure concluded earller Lhls year ln hls recenL congresslonal LesLlmony Craham revealed LhaL Iran|an m|||tary
[ourna|s LranslaLed by Lhe ClA aL hls commlsslon's requesL exp||c|t|y d|scuss a nuc|ear LM attack that wou|d
grave|y harm the Un|ted States" lurLhermore lf lran launched lLs aLLack from a cargo shlp plylng Lhe commerclal sea lanes off
Lhe LasL coasL a scenarlo LhaL appears Lo have been LesLed durlng Lhe Casplan Sea LesLs uS lnvesLlgaLors mlghL never deLermlne who was
behlnd Lhe aLLack 8ecause of Lhe llmlLs of nuclear forenslc Lechnology lL could Lake monLhs And Lo dlsgulse Lhelr Lraces Lhe lranlans could
slmply declde Lo slnk Lhe shlp LhaL had been used Lo launch lL Craham sald Several parLlclpanLs ln lasL weekend's conference ln uearborn
Mlch hosLed by Lhe conservaLlve ClaremonL lnsLlLuLe argued LhaL lranlan presldenL Mahmoud Ahmadlne[ad was Lhlnklng abouL an LM aLLack
when he oplned LhaL a world wlLhouL Amerlca ls concelvable" ln May 2007 Lhen undersecreLary of SLaLe !ohn 8ood Lold Congress LhaL Lhe
uS lnLelllgence communlLy esLlmaLes LhaL lran could develop an lC8M capable of hlLLlng Lhe conLlnenLal unlLed SLaLes by 2013 8uL lran could
puL a Scud mlsslle on board a cargo shlp and launch from Lhe commerclal sea lanes off Amerlca's coasLs well before Lhen

Iran w||| str|ke Israe|
8ard (ur MlLchell 8ard LxecuLlve ulrecLor of Lhe nonproflL Amerlcanlsraell
CooperaLlve LnLerprlse ollcy AnalysL oLenLlal 1hreaLs Lo lsrael lran" !une 27Lh
2011 hLLp//www[ewlshvlrLualllbraryorg/[source/1hreaLs_Lo_lsrael/lranhLml)
1he on|y way to confront the 2|on|st enemy |s the cont|nuat|on and fort|f|cat|on of
res|stance and I|had Ayato||ah A|| khamene| was quoted as say|ng SepLember 3 2003 ln a meeLlng wlLh
Lhe mlllLanL group lslamlc !lhads secreLary general 8amazan Abdullah (Al SepLember 3 2003) ln CcLober 2003 recenLly elecLed resldenL
Mahmoud Ahmad|ne[ad quoted Ayato||ah khome|n| and dec|ared "As the Imam sa|d Israe|
must be w|ped off the map" 1he presldenL added "And od w||||ng w|th the force of od beh|nd |t
we sha|| soon exper|ence a wor|d w|thout the Un|ted States and 2|on|sm" (A CcLober 26 2003)
resldenL 8ush sald lebruary 16 2003 Iran has made |t c|ear that they dont ||ke Israe| to put |t b|unt|y
And the Israe||s are concerned about whether or not Iran deve|ops a nuc|ear weapon as are
we as shou|d everybodyClearly lf l was Lhe leader of lsrael and l llsLened Lo some of Lhe sLaLemenLs by Lhe lranlan ayaLollahs
LhaL regarded my securlLy of my counLry ld be concerned abouL lran havlng a nuclear weapon as well And ln LhaL lsrael ls our ally and ln LhaL
weve made a very sLrong commlLmenL Lo supporL lsrael we wlll supporL lsrael lf Lhelr securlLy ls LhreaLened" Irans
nonconvent|ona| weapons are not a threat on|y toward Israe| they a|so pose a danger to the
Un|ted States and |ts |nterests around the wor|d And Lhe Amerlcan people recognlze Lhls danger Accordlng Lo a
!anuary 2006 Callup poll 19 of Amerlcans see lran as an lmmedlaLe LhreaL Lo Lhe unlLed SLaLes and anoLher 63 sald lran ls a longLerm
LhreaL

Iran|an str|ke aga|nst Israe| causes ext|nct|on
n|rsch 6 (!orge Plrsch a professor of physlcs aL Lhe unlverslLy of Callfornla San ulego Pe
ls one of Lhe orlglnaLors of Lhe physlclsLs peLlLlon on nuclear weapons pollcles sLarLed aL
Lhe uCSu 1/3/2006 Amerlcas nuclear Llcklng bomb
hLLp//wwwslgnonsandlegocom/unlonLrlb/20060103/news_mz1e3hlrschhLml)
lf only convenLlonal bombs are used ln an unprovoked uS or lsraell aerlal aLLack agalnsL lrans faclllLles Iran |s ||ke|y to reta||ate
w|th m|ss||es aga|nst coa||t|on forces |n Iraq and aga|nst Israe| as well as posslbly a ground lnvaslon of
souLhern lraq LhaL Lhe 130000 uS Lroops ln lraq would noL be able Lo wlLhsLand Iran|an m|ss||es cou|d potent|a||y
conta|n chem|ca| warheads and |t certa|n|y wou|d be |mposs|b|e to ru|e out such poss|b|||ty
lran has slgned and raLlfled Lhe Chemlcal Weapons ConvenLlon (ln 1993 and 1997 respecLlvely) however lL ls sLlll llkely Lo have supplles as
deLermlned by Lhe uS SLaLe ueparLmenL ln AugusL 2003 Lar|y use by the Un|ted States of |owy|e|d nuc|ear
bombs w|th better bunkerbust|ng ab|||ty than convent|ona| bombs target|ng Iran|an nuc|ear
chem|ca| and m|ss||e |nsta||at|ons wou|d be cons|stent w|th the new US nuc|ear weapons
doctr|ne and cou|d be argued to be necessary to protect the ||ves of US so|d|ers |n
Iraq and of Israe|| c|t|zens lL would also send a clear message Lo lran LhaL any response would be answered by a far more
devasLaLlng nuclear aLLack Lhus poLenLlally savlng boLh Amerlcan and lranlan llves Powever the nuc|ear thresho|d |s a ||ne of
no return Cnce the Un|ted States uses a nuc|ear weapon aga|nst a nonnuc|ear adversary the
82 countr|es that are s|gnator|es of the Nuc|ear Nonro||ferat|on treaty w||| r|ght|y fee| at
r|sk and many of them w||| rush to deve|op the|r own nuc|ear deterrent wh||e they can A new
world wlLh many more nuclear counLrles and a h|gh r|sk of any reg|ona| conf||ct exp|od|ng |nto a||out nuc|ear
war w||| be the consequence 1he sclenLlflc communlLy (whlch creaLed nuclear weapons) ls alarmed over Lhe new uS nuclear
weapons pollcles A peLlLlon Lo reverse Lhese pollcles launched by physlclsLs aL Lhe unlverslLy of Callfornla San ulego has gaLhered over 1300
physlclsLs slgnaLures lncludlng elghL nobel laureaLes and many promlnenL members of Lhe uS sclenLlflc esLabllshmenL
(hLLp//physlcsucsdedu/peLlLlon/) SclenLlsLs ob[ecL sLrongly Lo Lhe concepL of WMu LhaL lumps LogeLher nuclear weapons wlLh oLher
weapons of mass desLrucLlon and blurs Lhe sharp llne LhaL separaLes lmmensely more desLrucLlve nuclear weapons from all oLher weapons
An esca|at|ng nuc|ear war cou|d |ead to the destruct|on of c|v|||zat|on 1here ls no fundamenLal dlfference
beLween small nuclear bombs and large ones nor beLween nuclear bombs LargeLlng underground lnsLallaLlons versus Lhose LargeLlng clLles or
armles


Ch|na
ASA1s

Ch|na |s advanc|ng and space and US |s vu|nerab|e to ASA1s
lan Laston 8esearch lellow aL Lhe 2049 ro[ecL lnsLlLuLe 200
1he CreaL Came ln Space Chlna's Lvolvlng ASA1Weapons rograms and 1helr
lmpllcaLlons for luLure uS SLraLegy"
hLLp//wwwpro[ecL2049neL/documenLs/chlna_asaL_weapons_Lhe_greaL_game_ln_space
Accessed 9/3/11 L1
lrom Lhe Amerlcan perspecLlve Ch|na |s rap|d|y becom|ng a spaceage superpower ln
dolng so Ch|na |s arguab|y a|ter|ng the status quo |n outer space a rea|m that has been
v|ewed as a doma|n of uncha||enged US dom|nance and deflned by lnLernaLlonal
cooperaLlon slnce Lhe end of Lhe cold war 1he US |s un|que|y vu|nerab|e to Ch|na's ASA1
weapons lL operaLes nearly half of Lhe 270plus mlllLary saLelllLes ln orblL as well as
hundreds of clvll commerclal and dualuse saLelllLes LhaL can be used for mlllLary
operaLlons And wh||e many of the deta||s concern|ng the US m|||tary space arch|tecture
are c|ass|f|ed a rev|ew of the open source ||terature |s revea||ng
US and wor|d economy depends on space capab|||t|es the|r |oss cou|d eas||y tr|gger
war
lan Laston 8esearch lellow aL Lhe 2049 ro[ecL lnsLlLuLe 200
1he CreaL Came ln Space Chlna's Lvolvlng ASA1Weapons rograms and 1helr
lmpllcaLlons for luLure uS SLraLegy"
hLLp//wwwpro[ecL2049neL/documenLs/chlna_asaL_weapons_Lhe_greaL_game_ln_space
Accessed 9/3/11 L1
Many speclallsLs also argue LhaL as|de from the US m|||tary dependency on orb|ta| space
the US economy and ln Lurn much of the wor|d economy |s a|so rap|d|y becom|ng
dependent on spacebased systems 1hey poslL LhaL ln effecL the US |s now a "space
far|ng" nat|on whose very way of ||fe |s t|ed to Lhe myrlad capab|||t|es prov|ded by Lhe
orblLal space medlum War games conducLed as parL of uS naLlonal securlLy proLocols such as
Lhe ArmyAfLernexL navy Clobal and Alr lorce Clobal LngagemenL serles Space Came 2 and
Schrlever 1 2 as well as Lhe prlvaLely conducLed uLAuSA1S" war games conducLed
from Lhe laLe 1990s and Lhe early 2000s conf|rm th|s v|ew Accord|ng to some space
experts who were lnLlmaLely lnvolved wlLh Lhe war games Lhe exerclses exposed "a
cr|t|ca| nat|ona| Ach|||es hee| that po||t|c|ans econom|sts and corporate CLCs have |arge|y
|gnored|osses |n space can qu|ck|y affect the econom|c soc|a| and nat|ona| secur|ty
fabr|c not on|y of the Un|ted States but of the ent|re wor|d" 1hese experLs furLher
speculaLe LhaL "|arge m|||tary powers" such as Lhe unlLed SLaLes cou|d "be he|d hostage
by the unknowns |nherent |n a new k|nd of war"36 1hese concerns are dlrecLly llnked wlLh
Chlna's ASA1 weapons and Lhelr poLenLlal appllcablllLy ln any fuLure uSSlno confllcL A
more recenL war game aclflc vlslon" conducLed by aclflc Alr lorces (ACAl)
underscored Lhe vulnerablllLy of Lhe unproLecLed commerclal communlcaLlon saLelllLe
channels on whlch Lhe Alr lorce relles as well as lLs cyber and radar vulnerablllLles Lo
Chlnese aLLack37
Ch|na has ASA1s and they are threat mu|t|p|e tests and nat|ona| pr|or|ty prove
lan Laston 8esearch lellow aL Lhe 2049 ro[ecL lnsLlLuLe 200
1he CreaL Came ln Space Chlna's Lvolvlng ASA1Weapons rograms and 1helr
lmpllcaLlons for luLure uS SLraLegy"
hLLp//wwwpro[ecL2049neL/documenLs/chlna_asaL_weapons_Lhe_greaL_game_ln_space
Accessed 9/3/11 L1
1he LA has been deve|op|ng ASA1 weapons as a nat|ona| pr|or|ty s|nce at |east the ear|y
s 1he entagon f|rst pub||c|y d|sc|osed that Ch|na was deve|op|ng a d|rectascent ASA1
m|ss||e |n |ts annua| report on Ch|nese m|||tary power |n 23 1h|s report a|so po|nted out
that th|s type of ASA1 weapon system was on|y one part of a |arger spectrum of offens|ve
capab|||t|es a|med at v|t|at|ng US dom|nance |n space1 lL was noL long before Lhe
ueparLmenL of uefense (uou) reporL was proven correcL SLarLlng ln SepLember 2004 the LA
reported|y began a ser|es of three d|rect ascent ASA1 tests whlch led up Lo Lhe fourLh Lhls
Llme successful LesL LhaL desLroyed Lhe l?1C weaLher saLelllLe on !anuary 11 20072 8efore
Lhe launch Ch|nese aerospace eng|neers had conducted a ser|es of ASA1 s|mu|at|ons Us|ng
the euphem|sm "space |nterceptor" resu|ts of these s|mu|at|ons |nd|cate focus on a kg
pay|oad boosted by a so||dfue|ed veh|c|e on a spec|a||zed tra[ectory3 Chlna's dlrecLascenL
klneLlcklll ASA1 launch vehlcle appears Lo be a moblle foursLage varlanL of Lhe ul21 medlum
range balllsLlc mlsslle (M88M) wlLh a ground range of 17002300km 1hls ASA1 mlsslle whlch
has been deslgnaLed SC19 by uS lnLelllgence4 ls a varlanL of Lhe Chlnese kalLuozhe1 (k11)
or loneer1" solldfuelled launch vehlcle 1hls launch vehlcle ls developed by Lhe Chlna
Aerospace Sclence and lndusLry CorporaLlon (CASlC) malnly Lhrough lLs afflllaLed Space Solld
luel 8ockeL Carrler Co LLd (SS8C)3 CASlC's developmenL and manufacLurlng of k11 whlch
occurred osLenslbly for Lhe commerclal launch of small saLelllLes gave plannlng prlorlLy Lo Lhe
mlllLary demands of speed(lng) up Lhe pace of Chlna's spacebased weaponry consLrucLlon"6
1he launch vehlcle's guldance package ls alded by ground based radars7 and unconflrmed
Chlnese sources suggesL LhaL the ASA1's k|net|ck||| veh|c|e (kkV) |s a mod|f|ed n
warhead8

ASA1s are a ma[or threat to key US sate|||tes
lan Laston 8esearch lellow aL Lhe 2049 ro[ecL lnsLlLuLe 200
1he CreaL Came ln Space Chlna's Lvolvlng ASA1Weapons rograms and 1helr
lmpllcaLlons for luLure uS SLraLegy"
hLLp//wwwpro[ecL2049neL/documenLs/chlna_asaL_weapons_Lhe_greaL_game_ln_space
Accessed 9/3/11 L1
Ch|na's d|rectascent ASA1s pose a ser|ous cha||enge to US phoLographlc |nte|||gence
(PC1ln1) elecLroopLlcal (LC) synLheLlc aperLure radar (SA8) and elecLronlc lnLelllgence
(LLln1) sate|||tes LhaL operaLe ln lowearLh orblL (LLC) Accordlng Lo uesmond 8all a sLockplle
of around 20 dlrecLascenL ASA1s would be needed Lo guaranLee Lhe desLrucLlon of Lhe slx or
seven LC/SA8 sate|||tes LhaL are LhoughL Lo currenLly const|tute the bu|k of c|ass|f|ed US
nat|ona| secur|ty space |mag|ng16 A furLher 20 such weapons would be needed Lo guaranLee
Lhe desLrucLlon of Lhe four coorblLlng groups of Lhree subsaLelllLe unlLs (SSu) Lhe uS navy
uses Lo locaLe enemy warshlps and groundbased alr defense sysLems wlLh whlch lL can Lhen
LargeL wlLh lLs overLhehorlzon saLelllLegulded crulse mlsslles17 1he |oss of these
LC/SA8/LLln1 p|atforms wh|ch are probab|y the ma|n targets of Ch|na's d|rectascent ASA1
weapons wou|d be a very ser|ous b|ow to the US at the outset of any conf||ct Aslde from
Lhe dlrecLascenL kkv Chlna has successfully LesLed lL ls also posslble LhaL dlrecLascenL ASA1s
cou|d be armed w|th the elecLromagneLlc pulse (nuclear or nonnuclear) warheads that the
LA |s also deve|op|ng for lLs anLlshlp balllsLlc mlsslle (AS8M) program whlch ls based upon
slmllar Lechnology as Chlna's ASA1 program18 Such a weapons sysLem would be serlous (and
raLher lndlscrlmlnaLe) LhreaL Lo a large number of clvlllan and mlllLary saLelllLes ln LLC as well
as Lhose ln hlghly elllpLlcal orblLs Chlna may feel LhaL Lhe use of such a devlce would be
warranLed ln order Lo guaranLee a survlvable nuclear deLerrenL ln Lhe face of recenL uS mlsslle
defense relaLed lnfrared saLelllLe deploymenLs

1a|wan conf||ct draws |n the US
Mlchael nan|on Senlor lellow forelgn ollcy 312 '1he 8lsk of War Cver 1alwan ls 8eal" 8rooklngs
hLLp//wwwbrooklngsedu/oplnlons/2003/0301asla_ohanlonaspx
And as blzarre as lL may seem the US rea||y wou|d f|ght to prevent faraway 1a|wan from be|ng conquered 1hls ls
Lrue noL only because resldenL Ceorge W 8ush publlcly sald so ln 2001 buL also for deeper reasons llrsL US cred|b|||ty as a
dependab|e secur|ty partner wou|d be on the ||ne ln any confllcL over 1alwan AfLer a halfcenLury of comlng Lo 1alwans ald
ln crlses Lo back down when Lhe golng goL Lough would cause every oLher uS ally around Lhe world Lo doubL Lhe sLrengLh of Amerlcas
commlLmenL Among oLher lmpllcaLlons more counLrles mlghL Lhen pursue Lhelr own nuclear deLerrenLs Second and more poslLlvely
1a|wans v|brant democracy e||c|ts strong support |n the US 1hls goes for uemocraLs as well as 8epubllcans lL was Lhe
CllnLon admlnlsLraLlon afLer all LhaL senL Lwo alrcrafL carrlers Loward Lhe 1alwan SLralL ln 1996 ln reacLlon Lo Chlnas flrlng of mlsslles near Lhe
lsland
More So|vency
Space NMD key
Space is tbe best NMD - Clobal boost coverage and ASAT capabilities
nays | Bi. Petei L. Bays is Associate Biiectoi of Eisenhowei Centei foi Space anu Befense Stuuies, 0SAF Acauemy. Be pieviously helu the
position of senioi policy analyst suppoiting the plans anu piogiams uivision of the National Secuiity Space 0ffice Towaiu a 0.S. uianu
Stiategy in Space, Bi. Eveiett Bolman, Bi. Petei Bays anu Bi. Kail P. Nuellei, Naich , 26;

Space is Best Basing Mode for Clobal Boost-Pbase Coverage, No Crisis Deployment or Contested
AirspaceJLittoral - Limited Engagement Window {- sec], Predelegation or Man-intbe-loop? - Even Limited BMD
System can bave Significant ASAT Capability - Crisis Stability, Expense, Tecbnologies Anotber patb to
space weaponization tbat is commonly discussed is by employing some kind of space weapons as part
of a boost-pbase ballistic missile defense system. If you want to bave a global boost
pbase defense, space basing is extremely attractive because tbat gives you tbe time
to engage tbose targets tbat are fleeting, but are typically valuable targets. Ubviously tbere are some buge
drawbacks as well. It is expensive to deploy tbat kind of tbing, you migbt bave to bave
predelegation built into tbe system because of tbat very fleeting window to engage,
and tbere are a variety of otber problems. In fact, if you look back during tbe 98s witb tbe SDI debates and tbe Reyk|avik
summit, tbis was really tbe lyncbpin in terms of US-Soviet relations - bow far and bow
fast were tbe two sides going to go in weaponizing space in order to provide ballistic
missile defense - and not some of tbe tbings we talked about at tbe beginning
Space |s key
Steven Lambak|s, Senioi Analyst anu Nanaging Euitoi, Comporotive Stroteqy,
Boovei Institution, "Nissile Befense Fiom Space", , http:www.gees.oiguocumentosBocumen-.puf

National economic anu commeicial inteiielationships thiive on the flow of invisible ones anu zeios thiough space channels, so that
timely, agile inteicontinental tiaue is now taken foi gianteu. 0.S. anu coalition foices ioutinely leveiage eaith-ciicling platfoims to
enhance militaiy capabilities: the ulobal Positioning System foi impioveu navigation anu piecision timing, ieconnaissance anu eaily
waining sensois, anu high- banuwiuth communications. Space, moreover, is an open arena, a global
commons increasingly used by many countries for military purposes. Tbe
proliferation of space tecbnologies offers foreign governments and nonstate entities
unparalleled opportunities to enbance diplomatic and military influence over tbe
U.S. and strike witb strategic effect. Potential enemies of the 0niteu States touay have impioveu "vision" ovei the
0.S. homelanu anu battlefielu activities, a bettei sense of uiiection anu geogiaphic position, anu an impioveu ability to mobilize foices
anu cooiuinate activities. Witb battle space now reacbing up to at least , miles above tbe
Eartb - tbe orbital altitudes for early warning and communications satellites -
protecting ourselves from future attacks will depend migbtily on space power.
Space NMD key
Spacebased NMD |s best |t |s the most effect|ve and better than a|t forms of NMD
Iak|o|as and Iak|o|as LfsLaLhlos 1 laklolas holds a hu from Lhe ueparLmenL of War SLudles klngs College London and ls currenLly worklng as
a sLraLegy and souLheasLern Luropean affalrs analysL aL A1Lbank 1assos L laklolas holds a hu from lMLMC Moscow 8usslan Academy of
Sclences and ls a speclal advlser on 8usslan and easL Luropean affalrs for a Creek buslness flrm '09 (korean !ournal of uefense Analysls Space
conLrol and global hegemony 2
ln Lhls poLenLlally LhreaLenlng envlronmenL Lhe unlLed SLaLes 8ussla and lsrael have flelded balllsLlc mlsslle defense sysLems and are sLrlvlng
Lo furLher Lhelr capablllLles agalnsL LheaLer balllsLlc mlsslles7 ?eL Lhe vlew wldely held among pollcy ellLes and senlor mlllLary offlcers allke ls
LhaL for Lhe Llme belng ''effecLlve mlsslle defenses do noL exlsL''8 1he prlmary defenslve problem ls Lo obLaln Lhe ablllLy noL [usL Lo deLer buL
also Lo ward off nuclear and masslve desLrucLlve mlsslle aLLacks* LhaL ls Lo have Lhe economlc and Lechnologlcal resources Lo bulld an effecLlve
anLl mlsslle shleld 1o Lhls end a greaL power needs Lo have sea and ground bases ln numerous counLrles parLlcularly Lhe blg ones 8uL ln Lhls
case Lhese counLrles are ln danger of belng Lhe ob[ecL of aLLack 1haL ls why mosL of Lhem Canada for lnsLance have denled offerlng Lhelr
LerrlLory for such purposes 1hus |nsofar as a |and sea and a|rbased sh|e|d |s vu|nerab|e to earthbased
attacks for m|ss||e defense to be |mpenetrab|e |t shou|d be dep|oyed |n a p|ace where no one
cou|d read||y have access 1hls place ls space 1he space d|mens|on of m|ss||e defense |s more
s|gn|f|cant than the ground sea and a|r d|mens|ons taken together Why? ure|y from a
m|||tary po|nt of v|ew space |s an operat|ona| med|um ''w|th some un|que advantages
pers|stence presence perspect|ve access prec|s|on respons|veness'' W|th these attr|butes
''you can know more about the adversary ou can see the batt|ef|e|d more comp|ete|y and
c|ear|y ou can str|ke more qu|ck|y and prec|se|y'' lL ls all Lhls LhaL consLlLuLes ''Lhe asymmeLrlc advanLage'' whlch
ln Lurn far from reduclng space Lo a mere ''force enhancer'' seL Lhe sLage for a ''spaceenabled warfare''9 And of course Lhls 1he korean
!ournal of uefense Analysls 139 advanLage ls funcLlonally based on and augmenLed by sate|||tes whlch are ''the on|y systems
to so|ve the 'beyond ||ne of s|ght' quest|on'' rov|d|ng cont|nuous coverage 24 hours a day
and days a week they operate across cont|nents and oceans w|thout be|ng dependent on
forwardbas|ng as are a|rcraft and other sensors In us|ng sate|||tes a spacebased m|ss||e
defense ''wou|d prov|de the w|dest area of coverage and greatest number of shots aga|nst
enemy warheads a|ways be|ng present to destroy ba|||st|c m|ss||es |aunched from
anywhere |n the wor|d'' 8y exLenslon lL prov|des the opportun|ty to destroy a m|ss||e dur|ng |ts
boostphase f||ght be|ng ''on stat|on on a wor|dw|de bas|s unfettered by sovere|gnty |ssues
of overf||ght and operat|ons on another nat|on's terr|tory''2 nence emerges the need for
space contro| to the extent that uptodate efforts to deve|op an effect|ve g|oba| ant|m|ss||e
sh|e|d w|th earthbased components have met w|th ||tt|e success13 Cne mlghL ralse Lhe quesLlon however
why |s there ''a need for spacebased weapons m|ss||e defense when the threat |s
theoret|ca|?''4 1he obv|ous answer ||es |n ''the very fact that we have no rea| defense''
aga|nst ba|||st|c m|ss||es13 lL also lles ln Lhe facL LhaL space |s a ''host||e p|ace'' where ''enemy m|ss||es
or warheads w||| spend most of the|r t|me''16 1o Lhls flnally should be added Lhe facL LhaL lL ls meanlngless Lo make a
dlsLlncLlon beLween clvll and mlllLary space sysLems lL ls all Lhe same Lhlng Accordlng Lo Lhe ulrecLorCeneral of Lhe Luropean Space Agency
(LSA) !acque uordaln ''Lhe dlsLlncLlon beLween defenserelaLed and clvll space sysLems makes llLLle sense Loday'' because ''Lhe same
saLelllLes Lhe same sysLems can be used for boLh'' Space has already been mlllLarlzed slnce several manufacLurlng saLelllLes are uLlllzed for
securlLy and defense purposes 1he ''weapon|zat|on'' of space goes a |ot further than |ts ''m|||tar|zat|on''
and m|ght be def|ned ''as the test|ng or dep|oyment of techno|og|es spec|f|ca||y des|gned to
f|ght a war |n or from space''17 Cn Lhls counL Lherefore some scholars argue LhaL Lhe cosL of mlsslle defense ls one ''LhaL we
cannoL afford noL Lo bear''18 CLhers volce Lhe vlew LhaL Lhe experlence of lraq ls bound Lo lnclLe ''a more aggresslve approach Lo maklng
mlsslle defenses work agalnsL a more plauslble range of mlsslle LhreaLs AnyLhlng less would be lrresponslble''19 1he heart of the
matter |s that bu||d|ng a m|ss||edefense system requ|res of a great power to m|||tar||y contro|
space a fact that |s dest|ned to enab|e |t to atta|n g|oba| hegemony
round based 8MD |s |nev|tab|e and r|sky Space based key to med|at|on
LvereLL C Do|man AssoclaLe rofessor of ComparaLlve MlllLary SLudles aL Lhe uS Alr lorce School of Advanced Alr and Space SLudles 23
Space ower and uS Pegemony" hLLp//wwwgwuedu/spl/asseLs/docs/SecurlLy_Space_volumellnalpdf
WlLhouL quesLlon from mlllLary appllcaLlons and sLraLeglc perspecLlves space based 8MD systems are super|or to
terrestr|a| (ground sea or alr) based ones 1hey a|so have except|ona| po||t|ca| advantages Any
8MD system w||| rece|ve cr|t|c|sm from poLenLlal adversarles as ls evldenL wlLh Lhe rouLlne vocal opposlLlon LhaL comes from
8ussla and Chlna Lo any proposed 1Mu sysLem 8ecause of crlLlclsm and reLallaLory LhreaLs made by Lhe opposlng sLaLes domesLlc and allled
supporL has been heslLanL and unsure If the state |s w||||ng to dep|oy 8MD anyway by us|ng a spacebased
system |nstead of a groundbased one |t shou|d be ab|e to gradua||y rega|n w|despread
popu|ar support Cne of Lhe advanLages of Lhe moblle 1MD sysLem say lLs advocaLes ls LhaL lL could be dlspaLched Lo LhreaLened
areas as needed 1rue enough buL |mag|ne the prob|ems assoc|ated w|th some poss|b|e dep|oyments to
Israe| say or to 1a|wan As much as Lhe unlLed SLaLes would lnslsL LhaL Lhe deploymenL was for defenslve purposes only |t
wou|d be a c|ear and poss|b|y |nf|ammatory s|gn of preference for one s|de over the other A
spacebased system wou|d forever be on a|ert and wou|d avo|d the po||t|ca| prob|ems of
terrestr|a| bas|ng a|together 1he Un|ted States wou|d not have to phys|ca||y dep|oy to the
threatened terr|tory to be ab|e to |ntercept and destroy host||e m|ss||e act|v|ty regard|ess of
the s|de that |aunches f|rst Un|ted States |mpart|a||ty cou|d be asserted and ma|nta|ned
keta||at|ons too cou|d be contro||ed Whlle a unlLed SLaLes 1Mu baLLery ln lsrael could concelvably shooL down an
lncomlng balllsLlc mlsslle from lraq whaL would prevenL Lhe lsraell's from shooLlng back ln anger? 1he unlLed SLaLes would need Lo deploy Lhe
sysLem ln boLh sLaLes Lventua||y they wou|d have to be dep|oyed |n a|| states and any hope of counLerlng Lhe
spacebased sysLem wlLh a flscal resLralnL argumenL would be losL Moreover the human operators of the 1MD battery
wou|d be at r|sk 1he|r capture or casua|t|es |n the|r ranks cou|d force the Un|ted State to get
d|rect|y |nvo|ved |n the conf||ct knowlng Lhls Lhey could be parLlcularly deslrable LargeLs for elLher slde ln oLher lnsLances
the Un|ted States m|ght not have the t|me to dep|oy a 1MD battery to a host||e theater or may
be pollLlcally unable Lo do so 1he case of an lndlanaklsLan or an lraqlran exchange comes readlly Lo mlnd
Space NMD key
D|rected energy weapons key to successfu| weapon advantage and ba|||st|c m|ss||e defense
8ayram Devec| uocLoraLe aL naval osLgraduaLe School naval osLgraduaLe School ulrecLedLnergy Weapons lnvlslble and lnvlnclble?"
SepLember 2007 hLLp//wwwdLlcmll/cglbln/CeL18uoc?AuAuA473993LocaLlonu2docCeL18uocpdf
1 AdvanLages of ulrecLedLnergy Weapons 1here are several reasons for Lhe growlng lnLeresL ln
dlrecLedenergy weapons 1he aLLracLlon of Lhe mlllLary Lo Lhese weapons ls clear when conslderlng Lhe unlque properLles Lhey
brlng Lo Lhe sLraLeglc operaLlonal and LacLlcal baLLlefleld 1he flrsL and mosL obvlous advanLage ls LhaL d|rectedenergy weapons
de||ver |etha| energy at the speed of ||ght 1h|s s|gn|f|cant advantage enab|es |nstant react|on
to fast h|gh|y maneuverab|e targets 1haL means many of Lhe prob|ems assoc|ated w|th a|m|ng and
d|scharg|ng ex|st|ng weapons are effect|ve|y e||m|nated because vlrLually no Llme elapses beLween flrlng a
dlrecLedenergy weapon and lLs lmpacL on Lhe LargeL 23 Avo|dance of co||atera| damage or ad[ustab|e energy |s
the second advantage of d|rectedenergy weapons 1oday's war menLallLy prefers Lhe opLlon Lo lnfllcL nonleLhal
aLLacks prlor Lo Lhe use of leLhal force In contrast to k|net|c and chem|ca| weapons that m|ght have
devastat|ng and un|ntended co||atera| effects f|ex|b|e engagement |eve|s dependent upon
the transm|tted power and |rrad|at|on t|me makes the DL weapons un|que and va|uab|e A Lhlrd
lmporLanL aspecL of Lhe d|rectedenergy weapons ls LhaL Lhey are extreme|y prec|se ulrecLedenergy weapons allow
Lhe aLLackers employlng Lhem Lo selecL Lhe speclflc parL of a fasLmovlng LargeL LhaL Lhey wlsh Lo sLrlke ln facL wlLh sufflclenL Lracklng and
characLerlzaLlon Lhls unprecedenLed preclslon wlll accompllsh surglcal sLrlkes wlLh no collaLeral damage or fraLrlcldal effecLs on frlendly forces
24 A fourLh lmporLanL feaLure of dlrecLedenergy weapons ls Lhelr freedom from gravlLaLlonal llmlLs ulrecLedenergy beams are essenLlally
lmmune Lo gravlLy due Lo Lhelr lack of mass whlch also frees Lhem from Lhe klnemaLlc and aerodynamlc consLralnLs LhaL llmlL LradlLlonal
weapons 2 A flfLh key feaLure of Lhe dlrecLedenergy weapons ls LhaL Lhey are area weapons LhaL can engage mulLlple LargeLs wlLhln a hosLlle
area wlLh mlnlmal prlor lnformaLlon on LhreaL characLerlsLlcs 1hey can affecL all LargeLs ln LhaL area and can be rapldly reLargeLed Lo provlde
proLecLlon ln several dlrecLlons 26 A s|xth d|rectedenergy weapon advantage |s the|r deep magaz|nes
wh|ch need on|y fue| and battery chargers as we|| as |ow operat|ng costs lor example a LacLlcal hlgh
energy laser shoL ls esLlmaLed Lo cosL abouL $8000 whereas flrlng a aLrloL (AC3) mlsslle cosLs $38 mllllon an AlM7 Sparrow mlsslle cosLs
approxlmaLely $123000 and a 1omahawk crulse mlsslle cosLs roughly $600000 AlLhough Lhe beamgeneraLlng sysLem may be expenslve Lo
bulld and malnLaln Lhe prlce of engagemenLs ls mlnlmal because Lhe sysLem expends only energy 27 A flnal unlque characLerlsLlc of dlrecLed
energy weapon ls Lhelr allweaLher aLLack capablllLy Lo reach vlrLually unLouchable LargeLs 1hey are unaffected by weather
and can penetrate deep |nto the earth enab||ng attacks on bur|ed bunkers as we|| as targets
|n space 28 2 LlmlLaLlons and roblems wlLh ulrecLedLnergy Weapons ulrecLedenergy weapons offer new ways of flghLlng LhaL wlll
change currenL docLrlnes LacLlcs and sLraLegles As wlLh Lhe lnLroducLlon of any new sysLems dlrecLed energy weapons also have llmlLaLlons
and drawbacks LhaL wlll Lend Lo mlLlgaLe Lhelr fasL growLh 1he flrsL problem faclng dlrecLed energy ls operaLlng under realworld condlLlons
Whlle a new Lechnology llke dlrecLedenergy weapons are belng LranslLloned ouL of Lhe laboraLory Lo Lhe real baLLlegrounds Lhere mlghL be
relaLlvely slmple counLermeasures LhaL can resLrlcL Lhe effecLlveness of dlrecLedenergy weapons LhaL have been overlooked by Lhose worklng
ln Lhe laboraLorles and LhaL may be relaLlvely slmple Lo lmplemenL lraLrlclde ls probably Lhe second blggesL drawback ln uslng Lhls Lechnology
Some dlrecLedenergy weapons are noL very dlscrlmlnaLlng 8adlaLlng aL an enemy wlll noL only affecL Lhe LargeL sysLem buL also anyLhlng else
ln Lhe beam's paLh Any frlendly forces wlLhln Lhe fooLprlnL of Lhe beam wlll be aL slgnlflcanL rlsk 29 A Lhlrd greaL llmlLaLlon of some Lypes of
dlrecLedenergy weapons ls LhaL Lhey are hlghly suscepLlble Lo degradaLlon by Lhe aLmosphere ln Lhe presence of obscuranLs wheLher naLural
or manufacLured such as dusL clouds raln and smoke AnoLher poLenLlal llmlLaLlon ls damage or performancedegradlng assessmenLs uue Lo
llLLle dlrecLlyobservable feedback from Lhe LargeL as Lo Lhe effecLs of a hlL one may noL know poslLlvely lf a dlrecLedenergy weapon has been
successful30 1he lasL concern regardlng dlrecLedenergy weapons ls relaLed Lo Lhelr usage agalnsL allled forces Plghpowered mlcrowave
weapons may be relaLlvely slmple for LerrorlsL forces (and oLhers) Lo acqulre and use ln an asymmeLrlc manner ln order Lo counLer Lhls all
elecLronlc plaLforms and weapon sysLems musL be hardened and shlelded 1able 3 summarlzes Lhe advanLages and dlsadvanLages of dlrecLed
energy weapons Llke Lhelr sLrengLhs dlrecLedenergy weapons weaknesses dlffer from Lhose encounLered by currenL Lechnologles and
conLrlbuLe Lo Lhe lmpresslon LhaL Lhese weapons are very dlfferenL L|ke a|| other weapons d|rectedenergy weapons
have ||m|tat|ons and prob|ems Powever the|r potent|a| |nf|uence on the current batt|ef|e|d
strateg|es far outwe|ghs the|r ||m|tat|on L LllLC1S Cn 1A8CL1S 1here are varlous means of affecLlng LargeLs uslng
dlrecLedenergy weapons 1he followlng dlscusslon lncludes some of Lhe commonly used Lerms Lo dlscuss Lhese varlous means ueny ls a
Lemporary acLlon and lL ls deflned as Lhe ablllLy Lo ellmlnaLe Lhe enemy's operaLlonal capaclLy wlLhouL lnfllcLlng harm whereas degrade means
Lo achleve Lhls lmpacL wlLh mlnlmal ln[ury on Lhe enemy sysLems ueny and degrade are boLh slmllar ln LhaL Lhey boLh are nonpermanenL and
affecLed sysLems wlll reLurn Lo normal operaLlon wlLhln a perlod of Llme 24 1he concepL of damage lnvolves moderaLe ln[ury Lo lncapaclLaLe
Lhe enemy sysLems for a cerLaln perlod of Llme 1hls acLlon may be permanenL dependlng upon Lhe severlLy of Lhe aLLack llnally desLroy
reflecLs Lhe ldea of permanenL ln[ury on Lhe enemy sysLems whlch would be requlre LoLal replacemenL 31 ln prlnclple dependlng on some
condlLlons such as dlsLance beLween Lhe weapon and LargeL generaLed power and LargeLhardenlng level dlrecLedenergy weapons affecL
Lhelr LargeLs Lhrough elLher a sofLklll or a hardklll 1 SofLklll A sofLklll ls achleved when Lhe effecLs of a dlrecLedenergy weapon sLops
operaLlon of Lhe LargeL sysLem Lemporarlly As ls undersLood from Lhelr deflnlLlons above deny degrade and some damage effecLs are Lhe
pracLlcal meLhods of a sofLklll mechanlsm ulsrupLlng Lhe elecLronlcs of a gulded mlsslle causlng lL Lo mlss lLs LargeL or suppresslng or
damaglng vlslble lnfrared and mlcrowave sensors mlghL be glven as examples of a sofLklll 1he resulLs are a Lemporary loss of funcLlon buL
Lhey can serlously compromlse operaLlonal success A sofLklll by dlrecLedenergy weapons agalnsL human LargeLs means palnful sLlmulaLlon of
human nerves hearlng or skln AfLer braln Llssue absorbs an elecLromagneLlc pulse lL sllghLly buL rapldly expands and produces a supersonlc
wave whlch ls recelved by Lhe lnner ear lf Lhls pulse of energy exceeds a cerLaln Lhreshold and Lhe supersonlc wave ls Loo sLrong Lhe human
ear wlll noL funcLlon 32 1he AcLlve uenlal SysLem dlscussed ln a laLer chapLer ls an example of a dlrecLedenergy weapon whlch uses a sofLklll
mechanlsm by heaLlng up Lhe sklns surface 2 Pardklll Llke convenLlonal weapons dlrecLedenergy weapons can defeat the|r
targets by caus|ng phys|ca| damage to the structure of the targets A hardklll ls achleved when sufflclenL
energy ls dellvered lnLo Lhe LargeL sysLem such LhaL lL ls permanenLly damaged or desLroyed 33 Destroy|ng a ba|||st|c m|ss||e
w|th an a|rborne |aser dur|ng |ts boost phase by heat|ng me|t|ng or vapor|z|ng |ts sk|n |s an
examp|e of a hardk||| A hardklll can lnclude - SLrucLural damage - MelLlng of componenLs - ShorLlng ouL elecLronlcs - luslng and
lmmoblllzlng movlng parLs D|rectedenergy weapons have ad[ustab|e k||| mechan|sms as we|| as both
hardk||| and softk||| capac|t|es wh|ch makes them un|que |n compar|son to k|net|c energy
weapons Instead of on|y destroy|ng targets d|rectedenergy weapons have softk||| potent|a|
wh|ch enab|es temporary damage and degradat|on

Space Inte| ood
Space |nte|||gence |s key to deterrence f|ex|b|e forces and Amer|can m|||tary
dom|nance
kevln McLaugh||n naLlonal uefense lellow aL CSlS Pe commanded Lhe
squadron LhaL operaLes Lhe uS Clobal oslLlonlng SysLem saLelllLes and served as a
sLaff member on Lhe 8umsfeld Space Commlsslon Would Space8ased uefenses lmprove
SecurlLy?" 1he WashlngLon CuarLerly volume 23 number 3 Summer 22 pp 177191
1oday |nformat|on gathered from and LransmlLLed Lhrough space |s an |ntegra| component of
Amer|can m|||tary sLraLegy and operat|ons Spacebased capab|||t|es enab|e m|||tary forces to
be warned of m|ss||e attacks to commun|cate lnsLanLaneously to obta|n near realLlme
|nformat|on LhaL can be LransmlLLed rapldly from saLelllLe Lo aLLack plaLform to nav|gate to a
conf||ct area whlle avoldlng hosLlle defenses along Lhe way and to |dent|fy and str|ke targets
from a|r |and or sea wlLh preclse and devasLaLlng effecL 1h|s perm|ts US |eaders to manage
even d|stant cr|ses w|th fewer forces because Lhose forces can respond qulckly and operaLe
effecLlvely over longer ranges 8ecause of space capab|||t|es the Un|ted States |s better ab|e
to susta|n and extend deterrence to |ts a|||es and frlends ln our hlghly complex lnLernaLlonal
envlronmenL Space ls noL slmply a place from whlch lnformaLlon ls acqulred and LransmlLLed or
Lhrough whlch ob[ecLs pass lL ls a medlum much Lhe same as alr land or sea ln Lhe comlng
perlod Lhe unlLed SLaLes wlll conducL operaLlons Lo from ln and Lhrough space ln supporL of
lLs naLlonal lnLeresLs boLh on earLh and ln space As wlLh naLlonal capablllLles ln Lhe alr on land
and aL sea Lhe Un|ted States must have the capab|||t|es to defend |ts space assets aga|nst
host||e acts and Lo negaLe Lhe hosLlle use of space agalnsL uS lnLeresLs

Squo Doesn't So|ve
Current Capab|||t|es |nsuff|c|ent
Wllllam C Marte| professor of national security affairs at the Naval War College in Rhode sland. And Toshi
osh|hara,a doctoral candidate at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, and a research
fellow at the nstitute for Foreign Policy Analysis in Massachusetts.AuLumn 23 AverLlng a SlnouS Space 8ace" 1he
WashlngLon CuarLerly volume 26 number 4 ro[ecL Muse
hLLp//muse[huedu/[ournals/washlngLon_quarLerly/v026/264marLelhLml
ln sum because US m|||tary effect|veness and commerc|a| compet|t|veness depend so over
whe|m|ng|y on space the country |s |ncreas|ng|y vu|nerab|e to an adversary's mallclous use of
space or attacks aga|nst space systems As Lhe 8umsfeld Commlsslon reporL warned
omlnously "If the Un|ted States |s to avo|d a 'space ear| narbor' |t needs to take ser|ous|y
the poss|b|||ty of an attack on US space systems 1he naLlon's leaders musL assure LhaL Lhe
vulnerablllLy of Lhe unlLed SLaLes ls reduced and LhaL Lhe consequences of a surprlse aLLack on
uS space asseLs are llmlLed ln Lhelr effecLs" AL presenL mosL naLlons cannoL challenge Lhe
unlLed SLaLes dlrecLly buL Lhere are fears LhaL states m|ght someday attack US sate|||tes to
cr|pp|e |ts m|||tary capab|||t|es o||cymakers ln Lhe unlLed SLaLes are |ncreas|ng|y concerned
that th|s |s prec|se|y Ch|na's strategy
NMD key 1reat|es Don't So|ve
Space NMD keya treaty wou|d st||| threaten other countr|es and can't counter
kuss|a or rogue states
Mlchaela 8end|kova 8esearch AsslsLanL uouglas and Sarah Alllson CenLer for lorelgn ollcy
SLudles [ PerlLage 3192 roLecL and uefend noL LlmlL and AccommodaLe SLraLegy for
Lhe uS 8alllsLlc Mlsslle uefense SysLem" hLLp//blogherlLageorg/2011/03/09/proLecLand
defendnoLllmlLandaccommodaLesLraLegyforLheusballlsLlcmlsslledefensesysLem/
1he book 8alllsLlc Mlsslle uefense lLs asL and luLure by !acques ans|er |s yet another
contr|but|on to the ongo|ng debate on Lhe role of balllsLlc mlsslle defense (8MD) ln Lhe uS
sLraLeglc posLure Unfortunate|y a m|dd|e path to ba|||st|c m|ss||e defense proposed ln Lhe
book stems from |ncorrect prem|ses about the effects of 8MD systems and the|r ro|e |n Lhe
protect|on of Lhe uS homeland 1he auLhor argues LhaL lL ls necessary Lo negoLlaLe a new
Ant|8a|||st|c M|ss||e (A8M) 1reaty LhaL would allow only llmlLed defenses agalnsL rogue sLaLes
buL would bar Lhe unlLed SLaLes and 8ussla from LhreaLenlng one anoLher's nuclear deLerrenLs
1hls proposlLlon |s |nherent|y |||og|ca| because any "||m|ted" ba|||st|c m|ss||e defense system
w||| unavo|dab|y have the potent|a| to threaten kuss|a's nuc|ear weapons As w|th the A8M
1reaty Moscow wou|d not hes|tate to use a|| poss|b|e too|s to retard the deve|opment of a
US 8MD system wh||e preserv|ng |ts own ab|||ty Lo proLecL lLs populaLlon lnfrasLrucLure and
lnsLlLuLlons 1he author goes as far as to propose that the US's ||m|ted 8MD system shou|d
not threaten Ch|na's deterrent forces nowever the eff|c|ency of the Ch|nese deterrence w|||
be cha||enged even sooner g|ven that Ch|na has fewer ba|||st|c m|ss||es than the kuss|an
Iederat|on If the UnlLed SLaLes ||m|ts |ts 8MD sysLem |n any way the country wou|d |eave
|tse|f vu|nerab|e to the r|s|ng threats of Iran and North korea lran could have a nuclear
weapon ln as llLLle as one Lo Lwo years and an lC8M capable of LhreaLenlng Lhe uS by 2013 or
sooner norLh korea has 600 SCuu shorLrange balllsLlc mlsslles LhaL LhreaLen !apan and 100
nouong lnLermedlaLerange balllsLlc mlsslles LhaL could hlL uS bases ln Cklnawa and Cuam
yongyang already has Lhe capablllLy Lo reach Pawall and parLs of Alaska ln addlLlon |t |s
essent|a| not to defer spacebased k||| systems Spacebased m|ss||e defense systems are the
most capab|e and eff|c|ent a|ternat|ve to the cost|y and vu|nerab|e sea and groundbased
systems the UnlLed SLaLes current|y dep|oys

L|ther "||m|ted NMD" |s too sma|| to do anyth|ng or |t ||nks to the net benef|t
!onah Ir|edman conLrlbuLor Lo Lhe ro[ecL on nuclear lssues CSlS 3112 roblems wlLh
Mlsslle uefense" hLLp//cslsorg/blog/problemsmlsslledefense
?eL a ||m|ted NMD system cou|d |n no way defend aga|nst an attack by kuss|a or Ch|na and
therefore cou|d not rep|ace MAD If |t cou|d |t wou|d not be a ||m|ted system aL all but a
comprehenslve one wh|ch wou|d create Lhe klnd of |nstab|||ty ouLllned above lndeed
ans|er's suggest|on that the US m|ght cons|der "mu|t|p|e k||| veh|c|es" (more Lhan a dozen)
launched on a slngle lnLercepLor" |s exact|y the sort of th|ng that ra|ses concerns |n Moscow
AlLhough Lhls program has been canceled Lhe posslblllLy of such a capablllLy emerglng ln Lhe
fuLure wheLher meanL Lo negaLe 8ussla's large number of warheads or sophlsLlcaLed
counLermeasures ls someLhlng 8ussla worrles abouL Assum|ng ans|er rea||y does mean
that the system shou|d be ||m|ted the way ln whlch he conce|ves of such a system enter|ng
|nto US strateg|c ca|cu|at|ons |s a|so troub|esome Cne of Lhe purposes whlch he th|nks such
a system shou|d serve |s to g|ve future US pres|dents more opt|ons dur|ng a cr|s|s Pe glves a
hypoLheLlcal example ln whlch Lhe Culf War occurs Lwo decades afLer lL dld and Saddam
Pusseln has nuclear or blologlcal weapons ln Lhls scenarlo balllsLlc mlsslles Llpped wlLh Lhese
warheads are almed aL uS clLles and Saddam LhreaLens Lo launch Lhem lf Lhe uS Lrles Lo expel
hlm from kuwalL Cansler suggesLs LhaL havlng a nMu sysLem ln place would provlde Lhe
presldenL wlLh added flexlblllLy" et |t |s |nconce|vab|e that |n such a case any pres|dent
wou|d run the r|sk of a nuc|ear or b|o|og|ca| warhead detonat|ng over a US c|ty ans|er
h|mse|f says repeated|y LhaL the system |s not and cannot be effect|ve If that |s so |t
wou|d be the he|ght of |rrespons|b|||ty for any |eader to trust the ||ves of m||||ons to such a
system It therefore seems ||ke|y that even w|th a NMD system |n p|ace future pres|dents
fac|ng s|m||ar scenar|os wou|d be [ust as caut|ous as |f no system ex|sted at a|| AlLhough Lhe
ldea of Saddam Pusseln wlLh nuclear weapons never came Lo pass ans|er r|ght|y notes the
|ncrease |n ba|||st|c m|ss||e pro||ferat|on ln recenL decades Pe spends an enLlre secLlon of Lhe
book lllusLraLlng Lhls facL and conslders one ob[ecLlve of a nMu sysLem Lo be reduclng Lhe
currenL exLenslve prollferaLlon of balllsLlc mlsslles by reduclng Lhe value of offenslve weapons"
1hls argumenL assumes LhaL balllsLlc mlsslles are procured largely Lo aLLack or LhreaLen Lhe
unlLed SLaLes or lLs allles Powever balllsLlc mlsslles are and can be valuable for a varleLy of
oLher uses Many countr|es have reg|ona| r|va|s towards whom they cou|d d|rect such
weapons and the deve|opment of a NMD system wou|d not s|gn|f|cant|y |mpact th|s
dynam|c
S8Ls so|ve energy transfer
S8Ls can beam energy down to earth not as affected by atmosphere and can reach
remote s|tes
Lasers ln Space 1echnologlcal CpLlons for Lnhanclng uS MlllLary CapablllLles" by Mark L kogers
LleuLenanL Colonel uSAl november 19 Cccaslonal aper no 2 CenLer for SLraLegy and 1echnology
Alr War College Maxwell Alr lorce 8ase Alabama
hLLp//wwwblblloLecapleyadesneL/clencla/clencla_laser02ahLm#conLenLs Accessed 8/23/11 L1
ower 8eamlng (SpaceLoSpace SpaceLoLarLh) CperaLlonal ConcepL Slmllar Lo Lhe concepL above Lhe
spaceLospace power beamlng would fall ln Lhe space supporL area whlle Lhe spacetoearth power
beam|ng would lle ln Lhe force enhancemenL mlsslon area 1hls concepL beams energy from a space
based |aser to e|ther another sate|||te or down to the earth as menLloned ln nWv
104
1he advanLage
for spaceLospace power beamlng ls avoldlng aLmospherlc dlsLorLlon and losses as well as weaLherrelaLed mlsslon
cancellaLlon 1he range beLween Lhe saLelllLes may also be less Lhan from earLh Lo Lhe recelvlng saLelllLe and Lhus
reduce Lhe power requlremenLs on Lhe laser source 8eam|ng power from space to earth offers the
poss|b|||ty of prov|d|ng s|gn|f|cant amounts of power at remote s|tes where other sources of
energy are not read||y ava||ab|e such as unaLLended ground sensors Also the atmospher|c effects
appear to be |ess for |asers po|nt|ng down |nto the atmosphere ln parL because Lhere ls less
remalnlng paLh lengLh when Lhe beam enLers Lhe more dense reglons AlLhough Lhls prospecL needs furLher
modelllng lL ls clear LhaL powerbeamlng from earLhLospace ls noL Lhe same as from spaceLoearLh due Lo Lhe
asymmeLry of Lhe aLmosphere Also elecLrlcallypowered hlghalLlLude uAvs could be recharged by spacebased
lasers 1hese uAvs could provlde communlcaLlon llnks LacLlcal survelllance LheaLer mlsslle defense and
Lemporary navlgaLlon alds CperaLlonal LnhancemenL As before by reduclng Lhe requlremenLs Lo carry energy
generaLlng and energysLorlng equlpmenL Lhe cosL slze and welghL of Lhe saLelllLes and LerresLrlal equlpmenL
powered by Lhe laser power beamlng could be reduced key Lnabllng 1echnologles CompacL hlghenergy lasers of
sulLable wavelengLhs and long operaLlonal llfeLlmes are requlred Carbon dloxlde lasers are a posslble candldaLe
due Lo Lhe hlgh efflclency (abouL 30 percenL) as are solarpowered aLomlc bromlne lasers 1he Al2023 sLudy
recommended conslderlng solarpowered lasers for Lhe varlous PLL mlsslons
103
A crlLlcal parL of Lhls concepL ls
provldlng Lhe power Lo Lhe laser for Lhe beamlng Solar energy and a nuclear reacLor are vlable candldaLes As
menLloned ln Lhe prevlous concepL hlgh efflclency durable power collecLors and accuraLe polnLlng sysLems are
needed as well

S8LS so|ve m|ss||es
S8Ls so|ve m|ss||es and we on|y need 2 of them
8ayram Devec| uocLoraLe aL naval osLgraduaLe School 2 naval osLgraduaLe School
ulrecLedLnergy Weapons lnvlslble and lnvlnclble?" SepLember 2007
hLLp//wwwdLlcmll/cglbln/CeL18uoc?AuAuA473993LocaLlonu2docCeL18uocpdf
1he spacebased |aser (S8L) |s another h|ghenergy |aser type that uses a hydrogen f|uor|de
(nI) chem|ca| |aser to ach|eve an effect|ve g|oba| ba|||st|c m|ss||e defense capab|||ty 1he S8L
|s current|y env|s|oned to be a conste||at|on of orb|ta| |aser weapons capab|e of engag|ng and
destroy|ng severa| c|asses of m|ss||es |aunched from anywhere |n the wor|d dur|ng the boost
phase 1he S8L wlll also have Lhe capablllLy Lo desLroy or dlsable oLher spacebased sysLems such as survelllance saLelllLes Moreover a dlfferenL laser Lype LhaL has an approprlaLe
wavelengLh oLher Lhan LhaL of Lhe hydrogen fluorlde (Pl) chemlcal laser could aLLack ground LargeLs Accordlng Lo sources Lhe besL spacebased laser (llgure 13) concepL would operaLe aL an
alLlLude of 1300 km above Lhe earLh's surface wlLh LwenLy dlfferenL spacebased plaLforms 1hls would provlde a conLlnuous worldwlde defense ablllLy Lo desLroy hosLlle mlsslles launched
anyLlme from anywhere on Lhe globe Lach spacebased laser plaLform conslsLs of four ma[or subsysLems - A laser devlce whlch uses megawaLLclass hydrogen fluorlde (Pl) chemlcal laser
operaLlng aL 27 mlcrons - An opLlcs and beam conLrol sysLem whlch has a 24 Lo 40meLerdlameLer prlmary beam dlrecLor and an lnLegraLed beam conLrol sysLem - An acqulslLlon
Lracklng polnLlng and flre conLrol (A1/lC) sysLem whlch lncludes a sLablllzed plaLform Lo malnLaln Lhe beam on Lhe LargeL - AssoclaLed space sysLems whlch provlde Lhe necessary elecLrlcal
power laser reacLanLs onboard daLa processlng and command and conLrol 72 1wo oLher longer Lerm opLlons are consldered Lo lnvolve spacebased laser sysLems 1he flrsL uses space
based mlrrors and places Lhe laser on Lhe ground 1he dlsLlncL advanLage of Lhls archlLecLure ls LhaL Lhe hlghenergy laser ls kepL on Lhe ground whlch ellmlnaLes refuellng and complex
malnLenance problems AlLhough lL has an advanLage Lhls opLlon has dlsadvanLages LhaL lnclude Lhe requlremenL for hlgher energy levels Lo counLer greaLer losses due Lo aLmospherlc
Lransmlsslon A second opLlon ls deploymenL of spacelaser weapons wlLh large orblLal mlrrors 1he concepL behlnd Lhls archlLecLure ls Lo lncrease Lhe alLlLude of plaLforms and lnserL blfocal
mlrrors lnLo Lhe same orblL as Lhe laser weapons Cne d|st|nct advantage of th|s arch|tecture |s the poss|b|||ty of
reduc|ng the we|ght and expense of the system Instead of twenty |aser p|atforms the
concept requ|res rough|y ten p|atforms and ten orb|t|ng m|ss|on m|rrors4 1h|s w||| decrease
the number of |aser p|atforms but w||| a|so requ|re h|gher energy |eve|s because of the h|gher
orb|ta| a|t|tude
A1 Mob||e Nukes
Iran |ocked out Saud| Arab|a w||| not be |ts Launchpad for conf||ct w|th the US
AI 1122008 AssoclaLed lorelgn ress SLaff Saudl cannoL be launchpad for lran aLLack
reporL" hLLp//afpgooglecom/arLlcle/ALeqM3[C0dL11Z7Lyzsm39nZzPkl17_vg
A |ead|ng Saud| newspaper on Saturday ru|ed out any attempt by the Un|ted States to use the
o||r|ch u|f k|ngdom as a |aunchpad for a poss|b|e war on Iran over 1ehrans d|sputed nuc|ear
programme 1wo days before a vlslL Lo Saudl Arabla by uS resldenL Ceorge W 8ush Lhe progovernmenL dally Al8lyadh sald We
refuse to be used to |aunch wars or tens|ons w|th Iran 1h|s |ssue can be so|ved through
d|p|omat|c means and through d|a|ogue sald Lhe paper whlch reflecLs Lhe vlews of Lhe Saudl auLhorlLles 8ush on lrlday
began a fournaLlon Culf Lour as parL of a Mlddle LasL Lrlp Lo push for a peace deal beLween lsrael and Lhe alesLlnlans and rally Lhe supporL of
hls allles ln Lhe Sunnl Musllm oll monarchles agalnsL Lhe LhreaL he says ls posed by ShllLe Musllm lran ln lsrael on Wednesday 8ush warned
LhaL lran posed a threat to wor|d peace and shou|d not be a||owed to deve|op the knowhow to
bu||d a nuc|ear weapon Iran den|es seek|ng to acqu|re nuc|ear arms If the pres|dent wants
to obta|n the so||dar|ty of a|| the Arabs he must focus rat|ona||y on the most |mportant
|ssue wh|ch |s the quest|on of peace Al8lyadh sald 1he dally urged 8ush noL Lo preoccupy hlmself wlLh a danger whlch uS
lnLelllgence has quallfled as nonexlsLenL ln Lhe shorL Lerm A recenL uS lnLelllgence reporL sald LhaL lran whlch has repeaLedly sald LhaL lLs
nuclear progamme ls clvlllan halLed a nuclear weapons programme ln 2003 lrans supposed danger does noL mlnlmlse Lhe real danger of
lsrael whlch ls among 10 counLrles ln Lhe world Lo have nuclear weapons Lhe Saudl paper sald 8ush ls welcome as a man of peace noL a
man of war lL added 1enslons beLween 1ehran and WashlngLon escalaLed on Lhe eve of 8ushs Lour over a naval confronLaLlon ln Lhe sLraLeglc
SLralL of Pormuz wlLh Lhe enLagon saylng uS warshlps were LhreaLened by lranlan speedboaLs
US econom|c sanct|ons have a|ready so|ved for Nk nuc|ear transportat|on
Sunghan k|m rofessor lnsLlLuLe of lorelgn Affalrs and naLlonal SecurlLy uecember 2002 Coplng wlLh Lhe norLh korean nuclear roblem
A SouLh korean erspecLlve" lnsLlLuLe of lorelgn Affalrs hLLp//wwwealorkr/daLa/bbs/eng_reporL/200903121639349pdf
Pawk engagemenL" falled Lo play a proper role durlng 8ush's flrsL four years ln offlce for Lwo reasons llrsL Lhe 8ush admlnlsLraLlon
proclalmed Lhe preempLlve aLLack docLrlne aL home and abroad ln Lhe naLlonal SecurlLy SLraLegy of Lhe unlLed SLaLes of Amerlca (nSS) and
the Nuc|ear osture kev|ew (Nk) followlng Lhe SepLember 11 aLLacks Lhereby g|v|ng the |mpress|on that |t
was a new doctr|ne 8ush formu|ated for the f|rst t|me and that h|s adm|n|strat|on was
ser|ous|y cons|der|ng a preempt|ve attack to reso|ve the North korean nuc|ear |ssue
ConsequenLly yongyang selzed on WashlngLon's renewed preempLlve aLLack pronouncemenLs as a golden opporLunlLy Lo launch a
propaganda campalgn" peddllng LhaL hosLlle uS pollcles compelled lL Lo develop nuclear weapons4 North korea's obst|nate
strategy of "mudd||ng through" that res|sts show|ng a rea| progress |n the nuc|ear s|xparty
ta|ks w||| s|ow|y exhaust the "pat|ence" of the other f|ve countr|es concerned wh|ch |n turn
w||| prov|de the grounds for the Un|ted States to gradua||y t|ghten the screws on North korea
Cne cannoL rule ouL Lhe posslblllLy Lhen of norLh korea's provocaLlve acLlons ln response lL had been reporLed aL Lhe very end of 2002 LhaL
Lhe 8ush admlnlsLraLlon would prepare a Lallored conLalnmenL" pollcy Lo puL maxlmum economlc and pollLlcal pressure on norLh korea so
LhaL lL would abandon lLs efforLs Lo make nuclear weapons If North korea refuses to forgo |ts nukes the Un|ted
States wou|d |mpose econom|c sanct|ons through the UNSC and the US m|||tary m|ght
|ntercept m|ss||e sh|pments to prevent North korea from pro||ferat|ng the transportat|on
veh|c|e of WMDs to other reg|ons 1he p|an a|so ca||s for the Un|ted States to encourage
North korea's ne|ghbors |e Ch|na Iapan kuss|a and South korea to ||m|t or even sever
econom|c t|es w|th North korea

neg
2AC neg Add Cn
Space 8MD |s key to hegemony
Lambak|s (SLeven hu and Senlor AnalysL [ naLlonal lnsLlLuLe for ubllc ollcy Mlsslle
uefense lrom Space" leb 19
hLLp//wwwrealclearpollLlcscom/arLlcles/2007/02/mlsslle_defense_from_spacehLml
1he pollcy beneflLs of a spacebased mlsslle defense layer are sLralghLforward A more effecLlve
m|ss||e defense system that fully |everages space wou|d prov|de a Lrue oncall g|oba|
defens|ve capab|||ty and th|s cou|d |ead to |ncreased stab|||ty |n the wor|d Defenses deter
attacks by reduc|ng conf|dence |n the success of any attack 1he more effecLlve Lhe mlsslle
defense sysLem ls Lhe greaLer wlll be lLs deLerrence value and Lhe less llkely wlll we be Lo have
Lo use lL aL all AL some polnL when Lhe sysLem ls seen by oLher governmenLs as hlghly
effecLlve Lhey could recognlze a dlmlnlshlng marglnal raLe of reLurn ln Lhelr own balllsLlc
mlsslle lnvesLmenLs As more allles lnvesL ln mlsslle defense US spacebas|ng act|v|t|es cou|d
bulld on currenL mlsslle defense cooperaLlve acLlvlLles and open up new avenues for
|nternat|ona| co||aborat|on boLh Lo develop elemenLs of Lhe spacebased layer and Lo
parLlclpaLe ln operaLlons Moreover because no sLaLe can have soverelgnLy over Lhe space
above lLs LerrlLory we could operaLe up Lhere free of pollLlcal consLralnLs 1he need for
negoLlaLlng baslng rlghLs Lo locaLe sensors or lnLercepLor flelds would become less presslng
Improved system performance wou|d g|ve the US |eadersh|p a better array of opt|ons ln Lhe
face of aLLempLed blackmall for example the pres|dent and hls advlsors wou|d have
conf|dence |n the nat|ons capab|||t|es to defeat a m|ss||e wh|ch wou|d make |t poss|b|e to
avo|d more destab|||z|ng moves such as offens|ve prevent|ve attacks on enemy terr|tory lL ls
equally Lrue LhaL sLrong defenses would supporL necessary offenslve acLlon Lffect|ve defenses
can buy t|me to understand the strateg|c consequences and overa|| |mpact of m|||tary act|on
Cur cholces are fundamenLal Lo maklng moral [udgmenLs 1he moral lssues surroundlng a
naLlonal securlLy crlsls are Lled Lo conslderaLlons of operaLlonal effecLlveness Are we dolng our
besL Lo provlde proLecLlon agalnsL some of Lhe worsL weapons lmaglnable? WhaL would Lhe
consequences of noL acLlng be or of noL belng able Lo acL because of a blackmall LhreaL? WhaL
would be Lhe resulL lf WashlngLon were unable Lo respond Lo lncreased LerrorlsL acLlvlLy
worldwlde or an upswlng ln Lhe global weapons of mass desLrucLlon Lrade? A spacebased |ayer
wou|d re|nforce Amer|can strength wh|ch |n turn wou|d a||ow the US to better defend |ts
|nterests and pursue |ts fore|gn po||cy goa|s A powerfu| and |nf|uent|a| Un|ted States |s good
for wor|d peace stab|||ty and enforc|ng the ru|e of |aw |nternat|ona||y
nuke war
Zalmay kha|||zad lormer AsslsL rof of oll Scl aL Columbla Sprlng 19 1he WashlngLon
CuarLerly vol 18 no 2 84
under Lhe Lhlrd opLlon Lhe unlLed SLaLes would seek Lo reLaln global leadershlp and Lo
preclude Lhe rlse of a global rlval or a reLurn Lo mulLlpolarlLy for Lhe lndeflnlLe fuLure Cn
balance Lhls ls Lhe besL longLerm guldlng prlnclple and vlslon Such a vlslon ls deslrable noL as
an end ln lLself buL because a wor|d |n wh|ch the UnlLed SLaLes exerc|ses |eadersh|p wou|d
have tremendous advantages llrsL the g|oba| env|ronment wou|d be more open and more
recept|ve to Amerlcan values democracy free markets and the ru|e of |aw Second such a
wor|d wou|d have a better chance of dea||ng cooperat|ve|y w|th Lhe worlds ma[or problems
such as nuc|ear pro||ferat|on threats of reg|ona| hegemony by renegade sLaLes and |ow|eve|
conf||cts llnally US |eadersh|p wou|d he|p prec|ude the r|se of another host||e g|oba| r|va|
enab||ng the unlLed SLaLes and Lhe wor|d to avo|d anoLher global cold or hoL war and all Lhe
aLLendanL dangers lncludlng a g|oba| nuc|ear exchange uS leadershlp would Lherefore be
more conduclve Lo global sLablllLy Lhan a blpolar or a mulLlpolar balance of power sysLem
2AC Lxtended Deterrence Add Cn
Space 8MD key to extended deterrence so|ve a|||ed pro||f
fa|tzgraff et a| (8oberL hu and rofessor of lnL SecurlLy SLudles [ 1ufLs and resldenL [
Lhe llA 8eporL of Lhe lndependenL Worklng Croup on Mlsslle uefense Lhe Space
8elaLlonshlp Lhe 1wenLyllrsL CenLury" repared by Lhe lnsLlLuLe for lorelgn ollcy Analysls"
hLLps//wwwclaremonLorg/reposlLory/docLlb/200901291_lwg2009pdf
ln Lhe years ahead Lhe unlLed SLaLes should conLlnue Lo deploy a mlsslle defense for Lhe uS homeland and lLs forwarddeployed forces We
should be prepared Lo lnclude allles and coallLlon parLners wherever feaslble Cur ab|||ty boLh to defend the UnlLed SLaLes lLself
and to protect our overseas forces a|||es and coa||t|on partners from m|ss||e attack can
re|nforce US secur|ty guarantees and prov|de reassurance to fr|end|y countr|es |n reglons such as
the M|dd|e Last and the As|aac|f|c area An Amer|ca vu|nerab|e to m|ss||e attack by reglonal
aggressors may be an Amer|ca re|uctant to take appropr|ate m|||tary act|on to defend |ts frlends
a|||es and reglonal lnLeresLs 1he resu|t wou|d be the eros|on of extended deterrence and grow|ng
|ncent|ves on the part of countr|es former|y under our extended deterrence umbre||a to
acqu|re the|r own nuc|ear weapons AL Lhe same Llme mlsslle defense reduces Lhe lncenLlve Lo Lake hosLlle acLlon agalnsL Lhe
unlLed SLaLes and lLs allles by lncreaslng Lhe rlsk LhaL such moves wlll be successfully counLered 1he stronger the US
comm|tment to a|||es and coa||t|on partners re|nforced by m|ss||e defense the more ||m|ted
w||| be the opportun|ty on the part of aggress|ve powers to sp||t fr|ends from the Un|ted
States A US m|ss||e defense that |s g|oba| |n reach w||| contr|bute great|y to the cred|b|||ty of
US overseas comm|tments |nterests and re|at|onsh|ps lor reasons dlscussed elsewhere ln Lhls reporL (see
secLlons 1 and 2) a |ayered defense that |nc|udes a spacebased capab|||ty affords the max|mum
opportun|ty to destroy a ba|||st|c m|ss||e early ln lLs Lra[ecLory from wherever lL ls launched and lL provldes conLlnuous
coverage on a global basls for boLh Lhe unlLed SLaLes and lLs allles and coallLlon parLners WlLh a spacebased mlsslle defense sysLem Lhe
unlLed SLaLes would noL be dependenL on groundbased lnsLallaLlons deployed overseas perhaps ln locaLlons conLrolled by sLaLes or groups
hosLlle aL Lhe Llme Lo uS lnLeresLs Seabased sysLems also afford greaLer flexlblllLy Lhan a groundbased mlsslle defense (CMu) sysLem
because Lhey can be moved more easlly Lo crlsls reglons where Lhey are needed Lo proLecL uS or allled lnLeresLs rovlded seabased sysLems
are ln place or rapldly deployable Lhey furnlsh a capablllLy for reglonal mlsslle defense and Lhus can help prevenL or llmlL escalaLlon As noLed
below Lhe growlng number of naLlons (for example !apan and SouLh korea) wlLh Aegls mlsslledefense capablllLles on Lhelr shlps wlll mean
LhaL defenses are already ln place allowlng for less pressure Lo geL uS mlsslle defense asseLs Lo Lhe reglon
Nuke War
Marc uean M|||ot a soclal sclenLlsL aL Lhe 8Anu CorporaLlon 1he WashlngLon CuarLerly
Summer 4
1he ouLcome of Lhls refusal Lo face Lhe emerglng reallLy of reglonal nuclear adversarles ls LhaL
Lhe unlLed SLaLes ls noL preparlng serlously for Lhe posslblllLy of havlng Lo flghL ln a reglonal
nuclear war lf lL conLlnues down Lhls paLh lL wlll be unable Lo cope wlLh Lhe poLenLlal LhreaL of
nuclear aggresslon agalnsL lLs allles If |t cannot assure the secur|ty of |ts a|||es aga|nst th|s
threat the resu|t |s ||ke|y to be further pro||ferat|on among Lhese a|||es hlghly unsLable
reglonal mlllLary slLuaLlons a severe reducLlon of Lhe unlLed SLaLes lnLernaLlonal lnfluence and
a grow|ng probab|||ty of reg|ona| nuc|ear wars lnvolvlng uS forces ro||ferat|on by reg|ona|
a|||es of the Un|ted States |s not |nev|tab|e If |t f|rst recognlzes LhaL Lhe LhreaL of reglonal
nuclear war LhreaLens lLs own survlval ln ways no less meanlngful Lhan Lhe LhreaL presenLed Lo
lLs allles by Lhe SovleLs and Lhen convlnces lLs allles LhaL lL undersLands Lhls facL Lhe unlLed
SLaLes can dlssuade Lhem from decldlng Lo follow Lhelr reglonal adversarles down Lhe nuclear
paLh lf Lhe unlLed SLaLes Lakes Lhese sLeps lL has some hope of sLeerlng lLs way safely Lhrough
Lhe uncerLaln Llmes ahead US po||cy shou|d embrace Asplns analysls of Lhe prollferaLlon
problem lL should proceed from Lhe assumpLlon LhaL Lhe unlLed SLaLes wlll face several
reglonal nuclear adversarles ln Lhe nexL decade emphas|ze the need to reassure reg|ona| a|||es
that the best counter to th|s threat ||es |n co||ect|ve defense arrangements w|th the Un|ted
States and glve reglonal nuclear confllcL hlgh prlorlLy ln uS mlllLary plannlng 1h|s approach
wou|d reduce the prospect of pro||ferat|on by reglonal a|||es of Lhe unlLed SLaLes |mprove
reg|ona| m|||tary stab|||ty ma|nta|n US |nf|uence and reduce the chances of US m|||tary
forces be|ng dragged |nto a reg|ona| nuc|ear conf||ct

Space NMD ood neg
Weapon|zat|on of space estab||shes wor|dw|de hegemon
LfsLaLhlos 1 Iak|o|as and 1assos L Iak|o|as ueparLmenL of ollLlcal Sclence and lnLernaLlonal
8elaLlons unlverslLy of eloponnese CorlnLh Creece and SLraLegy and SouLheasL Luropean
Affalrs AnalysL A1Lbank ALhens Creece Speclal Advlsor on 8usslan and LasL Luropean Affalrs
Creece !une 2 Space conLrol and global hegemony"
kldarekr/daLa/k[da/8k!u_A_387383_pdf
1hls arLlcle argues LhaL ln addlLlon Lo ldeology and an ensulng dlscourse one*|f not the
on|y*effect|ve grand strateg|c means for a great power to estab||sh g|oba| hegemony |s
through space contro| 1oday the so|e power w|th both the w||| and the capab|||ty Lo achleve
Lhe grand sLraLeglc end of hegemony |s the Un|ted States whlch spends nearly as much on
space and armamenLs as all oLher counLrles comblned Powever Llme ls noL on Lhe slde of Lhe
unlLed SLaLes Un|ess |t proves ab|e to secure contro| of space |n the com|ng few years the
Luropean Un|on and kuss|a w||| hard|y consent to US dom|nat|on of space*and Lhrough lL
world pollLlcs 1hus m|||tary space contro| |s not the on|y way ahead lnLroducLlon unLll Lhe
flrsL parL of Lhe LwenLleLh cenLury CreaL 8rlLaln was Lhe world's largesL emplre rullng over 23
percenL of Lhe earLh's LerrlLory 1oday the pro[ect|on of m|||tary power capab|||t|es |s eas|er
and super|or A|| great powers now re|y on space systems for surve|||ance commun|cat|ons
nav|gat|on and prec|s|on target|ng lL ls Lherefore noL by accldenL LhaL Lhe aerospace lndusLry
secLor ranks flrsL ahead of compuLers elecLronlcs and pharmaceuLlcals Shou|d a great power
cap|ta||ze on Lhe laLesL achlevemenLs of sc|ence and techno|ogy to produce weapons of mass
desLrucLlon (WMus) and m|||tar||y dom|nate space |t has the potent|a| to command near|y a||
terr|tor|es and seas of the g|obe CurrenLly the great power that |s most ||ke|y to dom|nate
space |s the Un|ted States lLs predomlnance ln Lhe areas of Lhe mlllLary research and
developmenL (8u) lnnovaLlon and space exploraLlon |s unr|va|ed w|th no other great power
be|ng capab|e of a|one cha||eng|ng |t |n the near future
M|ss||e defense |n space key med|um for un|que advantages augmented by sate|||tes
LfsLaLhlos 1 Iak|o|as and 1assos L Iak|o|as ueparLmenL of ollLlcal Sclence and lnLernaLlonal
8elaLlons unlverslLy of eloponnese CorlnLh Creece and SLraLegy and SouLheasL Luropean
Affalrs AnalysL A1Lbank ALhens Creece Speclal Advlsor on 8usslan and LasL Luropean Affalrs
Creece !une 2 Space conLrol and global hegemony"
kldarekr/daLa/k[da/8k!u_A_387383_pdf
1he space d|mens|on of m|ss||e defense |s more s|gn|f|cant than the ground sea and a|r
d|mens|ons taken together Why? urely from a mlllLary polnL of vlew space |s an operat|ona|
med|um ''w|th some un|que advantages perslsLence presence perspecLlve access preclslon
responslveness'' WlLh Lhese aLLrlbuLes ''you can know more about the adversary ou can
see the batt|ef|e|d more comp|ete|y and c|ear|y ou can str|ke more qu|ck|y and prec|se|y'' lL
ls all Lhls LhaL consLlLuLes ''Lhe asymmeLrlc advanLage'' whlch ln Lurn far from reduclng space
Lo a mere ''force enhancer'' seL Lhe sLage for a ''spaceenabled warfare''9 And of course th|s
advantage |s funct|ona||y based on and augmented by sate|||tes wh|ch are ''the on|y systems
to so|ve the 'beyond ||ne of s|ght' quest|on''10 rovldlng conLlnuous coverage 24 hours a day
and 7 days a week Lhey operaLe across conLlnenLs and oceans wlLhouL belng dependenL on
forwardbaslng as are alrcrafL and oLher sensors In us|ng sate|||tes a spacebased m|ss||e
defense ''wou|d prov|de the w|dest area of coverage and greatest number of shots aga|nst
enemy warheads a|ways be|ng present to destroy ba|||st|c m|ss||es |aunched from
anywhere |n the wor|d''11 8y exLenslon lL provldes Lhe opporLunlLy Lo desLroy a mlsslle durlng
lLs boosLphase fllghL belng ''on sLaLlon on a worldwlde basls unfeLLered by soverelgnLy lssues
of overfllghL and operaLlons on anoLher naLlon's LerrlLory''2 nence emerges the need for
space contro| to the extent that uptodate efforts to deve|op an effect|ve g|oba| ant|m|ss||e
sh|e|d w|th earthbased components have met w|th ||tt|e success
Space weapons key to advanced warfare and m|||tary power
Do|man LvereLL C ls AssoclaLe rofessor of ComparaLlve MlllLary SLudles aL Lhe uS Alr lorces
School of Advanced Alr and Space SLudles (SAASS) WlnLerSprlng 26 uS MlllLary
1ransformaLlon and Weapons ln Space" ubllshed by 1he !ohns Popklns unlverslLy ress
261dolmanpdf
8uL the paramount effect of spaceenab|ed warfare was |n the area of combat eff|c|ency
Space assets a||owed a||weather dayn|ght prec|s|on mun|t|ons to prov|de the bu|k of
Amer|ca's str|k|ng power Attacks from standoff p|atforms |nc|ud|ng vleLnamera 82s
a||owed max|mum target devastat|on w|th extraord|nar||y |ow casua|ty rates and co||atera|
damage ln ueserL SLorm only 8 percenL of munlLlons used were preclslongulded none of
whlch were CScapable 8y lraql lreedom nearly 70 percenL were preclslongulded more Lhan
half from CS saLelllLes3 ln ueserL SLorm fewer Lhan 3 percenL of alrcrafL were CSequlpped
8y lraql lreedom all were uurlng ueserL SLorm CS proved so valuable Lo Lhe army LhaL lL
procured and rushed lnLo LheaLer more Lhan 4300 commerclal recelvers Lo augmenL Lhe
meager 800 mlllLaryband ones lL could deploy from sLockplles an average of one per company
(abouL 200 personnel) 8y lraql lreedom each army squad (610 soldlers) had aL leasL one
mlllLary CS recelver |ven the demonstrated ut|||ty of and re||ance upon m|||tary assets |n
space there |s no quest|on the Un|ted States must guarantee space access |f |t |s to be
successfu| |n future conf||cts lLs mlllLary has sLepped well over Lhe Lhreshold of a new way of
war lL ls slmply noL posslble Lo go back Lo Lhe vlolenLly spasmodlc mode of combaL Lyplcal of
prespace lnLervenLlons 1he unlLed SLaLes ls now hlghly dlscrlmlnaLlng ln Lhe pro[ecLlon of
vlolence and parslmonlous ln Lhe lnLended breadLh of lLs desLrucLlon Ior the pos|t|ve process
of transformat|on to cont|nue however space weapons must enter the combat |nventory of
the Un|ted States

Weapon|z|ng space key to protect |nterests there and d|p|omacy
Do|man LvereLL C ls AssoclaLe rofessor of ComparaLlve MlllLary SLudles aL Lhe uS Alr lorces
School of Advanced Alr and Space SLudles (SAASS) WlnLerSprlng 26 uS MlllLary
1ransformaLlon and Weapons ln Space" ubllshed by 1he !ohns Popklns unlverslLy ress
261dolmanpdf
1herefore we should noL be dlscusslng Lhe correcLness of Lhe mlllLary's plannlng Lo use
weapons Lo engage ln operaLlons lL has been asslgned If we dec|de we do not want weapons
|n space then the m|||tary shou|d not be g|ven the respons|b|||ty of protect|ng our |nterests
there 1o do oLherwlse ls absurd lmaglne relylng on Lhe uS navy Lo guaranLee freedom of Lhe
seas for Amerlcan lnLeresLs buL orderlng lL Lo so wlLhouL Lhe use of warshlps or any oLher form
of marLlal forceeven Lhe laLenL LhreaL of such force ln reserve We would be asklng Lhe navy
Lo guaranLee a vlLal naLlonal lnLeresL wlLhouL employlng Lhe only means aL lLs dlsposal Lo do so
1hus Lhe navy ls equlpped wlLh Lhe mosL modern weaponry wlLh whlch lL Lralns lncessanLly so
LhaL lL may be avallable Lo perform Lhe funcLlons asslgned Lo lL 1h|s |s because the trad|t|ona|
purpose of m|||tary power |s to prov|de an opt|on for the po||t|ca| dec|s|onmaker to ach|eve
the po||t|ca| ends of the state 1he more eff|c|ent the m|||tary |s |n |ts preparat|ons the more
effect|ve|y the po||t|ca| dec|s|onmaker can emp|oy |t as a threat for or |n the conduct of war
Cr|t|ca||y m|||tary power |s but one means of conduct|ng d|p|omacy lL ls mosL useful ln Lhe
LhreaL and conducL of war buL war ls noL Lhe ob[ecL of mlllLary force War or threats of war
(potent|a| or |atent v|o|ence) are po||cy |nstruments that the po||t|ca| author|ty needs read||y
ava||ab|e to conduct the affa|rs of state proper|y and fu||y ln Lheory Lhen uS MlllLary
1ransformaLlon and Weapons ln Space 167 Lhe manner ln whlch mlllLary power supporLs Lhe
pollLlcal alm ls Lhrough maxlmlzlngor more preclsely belng prepared Lo maxlmlzevlolence
aL Lhe dlrecLlon of Lhe sLaLe
Nat|ona| m|ss||e defense reduces vu|nerab|||tythat's the key |nterna| ||nk to
hegemony
kevln McLaugh||n naLlonal uefense lellow aL CSlS Pe commanded Lhe
squadron LhaL operaLes Lhe uS Clobal oslLlonlng SysLem saLelllLes and served as a
sLaff member on Lhe 8umsfeld Space Commlsslon Would Space8ased uefenses lmprove
SecurlLy?" 1he WashlngLon CuarLerly volume 23 number 3 Summer 22 pp 177191
no examlnaLlon of Lhls Loplc ls adequaLe wlLhouL a shorL dlscusslon of how new geopollLlcal
reallLles mandaLe a new approach llrsL the Un|ted States occup|es a predom|nant pos|t|on ln
Lhe new mlllennlumeconom|ca||y techno|og|ca||y and m|||tar||yrelaLlve Lo all oLher
counLrles 1he uS dollar ls Lhe benchmark currency ln a world LhaL lncreaslngly uses Lngllsh as
Lhe global language 1o deflne Lhls new reallLy lrench forelgn mlnlsLer PuberL vedrlne has
labeled Lhe unlLed SLaLes a hyperpower"1 AlLhough hls use of Lhe Lerm ls noL compllmenLary
Lhe Lerm does reflecL Lhe percepLlon and ln many ways Lhe reallLy of Lhe currenL global
domlnance of Lhe unlLed SLaLes 1he level of uS domlnance glves rlse Lo some predlcLable and
some unanLlclpaLed resulLs Lurope drlven prlmarlly by lrench and Cerman concerns wlll
sLrlve mlghLlly Lo forge a common Luropean ldenLlLy LhaL mlghL be capable of keeplng uS
power ln check and wlll work Lo malnLaln a sLrong role for Lurope ln global affalrs 8ussla and
Chlna wlll conLlnue Lo use Lhelr llmlLed resources ln broad efforLs Lo reduce Lhe relaLlve
lmbalance beLween Lhelr naLlonal power and LhaL of Lhe unlLed SLaLes CLher counLrles and
reglons may also acL ln ways deslgned Lo counLeracL uS sLrengLh 1hese posslblllLles are noL
new ldeas commenLaLors have exLenslvely wrlLLen abouL Lhem no one has glven much
LhoughL however Lo how Lhls new reallLy shapes Lhe poLenLlal effecL LhaL more exLenslve use
of space may have on sLraLeglc sLablllLy1he currenL geopollLlcal landscape ls a mulLllaLeral
maze of unequal parLners lncreaslngly prollferaLed Lechnology (lncludlng Lhe Lechnology
needed Lo develop and dellver weapons of mass desLrucLlon WMu) and a suddenly
unsaLlsfylng uS sLance on deLerrence and vulnerablllLy2 US and kuss|an nuc|ear stockp||es
are mov|ng toward the|r |owest |eve|s ln decades and the r|sk of a masslve kuss|an nuclear
str|ke on Lhe unlLed SLaLes |s no |onger a pr|mary concern ln Lhls new envlronmenL the
nat|on's deterrent forces do not counter the threats that g|ve r|se to |ts greatest concerns
1he sLraLeglc vu|nerab|||ty LhaL perversely formed Lhe basls of uS securlLy durlng Lhe Cold War
has become a g|ar|ng weakness and perhaps an |nv|tat|on to those who mlghL harm the
Un|ted States ln Lhls conLexL deve|op|ng and f|e|d|ng capab|||t|es that reduce US
vu|nerab|||ty and deLer Lhe mosL dangerous LhreaLs apparenLly best enhance US secur|ty and
strateg|c stab|||ty M|ss||e defenses are one of Lhe areas LhaL could poLenLlally reduce US
vu|nerab|||ty and offlclals should carefully examlne Lhe use of space Lo lLs fullesL exLenL
NMD ensures US m|||tary dom|nance and prevents the use of nuc|ear weapons
kevln McLaugh||n naLlonal uefense lellow aL CSlS Pe commanded Lhe
squadron LhaL operaLes Lhe uS Clobal oslLlonlng SysLem saLelllLes and served as a
sLaff member on Lhe 8umsfeld Space Commlsslon Would Space8ased uefenses lmprove
SecurlLy?" 1he WashlngLon CuarLerly volume 23 number 3 Summer 22 pp 177191
Pow does Lhls Lhlnklng affecL Lhe posslble use of space Lo supporL uS mlsslle defense
acLlvlLles? Cne barrler Lo uslng space Lo supporL mlsslle defenses has been Lhe bellef LhaL Lhe
unlLed SLaLes should noL use space Lo provlde overwhelmlng uS advanLage or ln any way
conLrlbuLe Lo a sLraLeglc lmbalance beLween Lhe unlLed SLaLes and oLher greaL powers
noneLheless Lhe above paragraphs lndlcaLe LhaL Lhe unlLed SLaLes quleLly crossed Lhls space
Lhreshold aL Lhe end of Lhe lasL cenLury ln ways LhaL dld noL perLaln Lo mlsslle defense 1he
Un|ted States now |everages sate|||tes to flghL baLLles ln ways LhaL overwhe|m adversar|es
Cur saLelllLes allow fleld commanders Lo see Lhe enLlre baLLlefleld communlcaLe globally and
lnsLanLaneously aLLack LargeLs preclsely avold LhreaLs and warn of aggresslon ln ways LhaL no
oLher naLlon ln Lhe world can maLch Argulng LhaL space a|ready affords the Un|ted States an
overwhe|m|ng m|||tary advantage ls no oversLaLemenL uefense requlremenLs LhaL do noL
lnvolve mlsslles may drlve Lhe developmenL of Lhe flrsL weapons Lo operaLe from space uS
mlllLary planners have lncreaslngly sLressed requlremenLs for engag|ng g|oba| targets w|th
convent|ona| weapons w|th|n a few m|nutes or a few hours of LargeL ldenLlflcaLlon 1hls
requlremenL may drlve Lhe necesslLy for power pro[ecLlon Lhrough and from space whlch uS
forces could accompllsh wlLh almosL no delay Such a capablllLy wou|d arguably prov|de the
Un|ted States w|th a much stronger deterrent and ln a confllcL an extraord|nary m|||tary
advantage Lffect|ve
nonnuc|ear deterrent concepts could also create a safer and more stab|e strateg|c
env|ronment by potent|a||y reduc|ng re||ance on nuc|ear weapons llnally lf Lhe unlLed SLaLes
flelds Lhese capablllLles ln supporL of nonmlsslle defense requlremenLs Lhe absence of a
precedenL ln developlng defenses LhaL operaLe ln from or Lhrough space wlll no longer
consLraln mlsslle defense planners and pollcymakers
Space r|macy key 1o neg
Space pr|macy |s key to US hegemony
kevln McLaugh||n naLlonal uefense lellow aL CSlS Pe commanded Lhe
squadron LhaL operaLes Lhe uS Clobal oslLlonlng SysLem saLelllLes and served as a
sLaff member on Lhe 8umsfeld Space Commlsslon Would Space8ased uefenses lmprove
SecurlLy?" 1he WashlngLon CuarLerly volume 23 number 3 Summer 22 pp 177191
Space capab|||t|es beyond Lhose conLrlbuLlng Lo mlsslle defenses are becomlng centra| to the
pursu|t of broader US nat|ona| ob[ect|ves ln early !anuary 2001 Lhe 8umsfeld Space
Commlsslon provlded Lhe clearesL sLaLemenLs Lo daLe of Lhls new reallLy 1he blparLlsan
commlsslon unanlmously concluded LhaL the secur|ty and we||be|ng of the Un|ted States |ts
a|||es and fr|ends depend on the nat|on's ab|||ty to operate |n space" and LhaL Lhe uS
naLlonal lnLeresL lles ln Laklng Lhe followlng sLeps - promoLlng Lhe peaceful use of space -
uslng Lhe naLlon's poLenLlal achlevemenLs ln space Lo supporL lLs domesLlc economlc
dlplomaLlc and naLlonal securlLy ob[ecLlves and - developlng and deploylng Lhe means Lo
deLer and defend agalnsL hosLlle acLs dlrecLed aL uS space asseLs and agalnsL uses of space
LhaL are hosLlle Lo uS lnLeresLs3 1he Space Commlsslon recognlzed space as slmply a place
where naLlons conducL buslness no dlfferenL Lhan alr land or sea lollowlng Lhls loglc space
possesses no quallLles LhaL lmply speclal moral or eLhlcal connoLaLlons buL ls slmply a physlcal
domaln wlLh lLs own physlcal properLles 1hose who operaLe ln space musL acL ln an eLhlcal
moral and legal mannerno dlfferenL Lhan Lhe requlremenL naLlons have for operaLlng ln
oLher domalns Accordlngly the Un|ted States shou|d use space to underp|n a broader
strategy a|med at exerc|s|ng US economlc mlllLary and Lechnologlcal |eadersh|p

Aerospace













































Aerospace Adv

rotect|ng sate|||tes |s cr|t|ca| to the g|oba| economy |nternet commun|cat|ons
secure encrypt|on networks
1ucker 28 masLers Lhesls presenLed Lo SCPCCL Cl AuvAnCLu Al8 Anu SACL S1uulLSAl8 unlvL8Sl1? LleuLenanL Colonel also
recelved a masLers ln mlllLary operaLlonal arL and sclence from Alr Command and SLaff College many mlllLary honors (uennls 8LSL8vlnC
unl1Lu S1A1LS uCMlnAnCL 1PL 8LnLll1S Cl WLACnlZlnC 1PL PlCP C8Cunu" Alr unlverslLy 8esearch downloaded from
hLLps//wwwafresearchorg/sklns/rlms/dlsplayaspx?moduleldbe0e99f3fc364ccb8dfe
670c0822a133modeuseracLlonresearchpro[ecLob[ecLld299bb7233d894d749a4ebcc36ba3a9fe) CM8

1he poslLlonlng and navlgaLlon capablllLles of CS are noL Lhe only crlLlcal lnfrasLrucLure
enablers provlded by Lhls well known space sysLem lLs value as a global Llme sLandard raLher Lhan as a navlgaLlon ald ls more
lmporLanL lL ls vlrLually Lhe only global source for accuraLe Llmlng"
24
MulLlplexed global communlcaLlon sysLems
rely on CS Lo ensure Lhe Llmlng of send and recelve slgnals reclse CS Llmlng slgnals are essenLlal ln Lhe process
LhaL allows for advanced mlllLary and commerclal encrypLlon Lechnlques for secure
communlcaLlons WlLhouL Lhese slgnals encrypLed communlcaLlons would be cumbersome and slow
and hlghspeed commerclal elecLronlc secure lnLerneL communlcaLlons would be losL
caLasLrophlcally so 1he lncreased dependence on accuraLe Llmlng also means a greaLer
economlc vulnerablllLy Lo ouLages accldenLal or dellberaLe lor example Lhe Leonld meLeor sLorm LhaL occurs
every 33 years lasL peaked ln 1999 lL had Lhe poLenLlal Lo knock ouL much of Lhe global poslLlonlng consLellaLlon whlch would have caused a
masslve dlsrupLlon Lo llfe on LarLh"
23
As vlLal as secure encrypLed communlcaLlons are for mlllLary users
they a|so a||ow for tr||||ons of do||ars of f|nanc|a| transact|ons to occur da||y around the g|obe
Loss of CS connecLlvlLy could Lrlgger a f|nanc|a| co||apse of wor|d monetary markets allowlng for
Lhe klnd of economlc crlsls LhaL Loo ofLen precedes mlllLary confllcL
1he US aerospace |ndustry |s key to the economy
I1A 6$2lnLernLalLonal 1rade AdmlnlsLraLlon Aerospace lndusLry ls CrlLlcal ConLrlbuLor Lo uS Lconomy Accordlng Lo Cbama 1rade
Cfflclal aL arls Alr Show" !une 21 2011 hLLp//Lradegov/press/pressreleases/2011/aerospacelndusLrycrlLlcalconLrlbuLorLouseconomy
062111asp uavldk
A8lS lranclsco Snchez under SecreLary of Commerce for lnLernaLlonal 1rade addressed naLlonal and lnLernaLlonal groups aL Lhe 2011 arls
Alr Show Lo relnforce Lhe resldenL's naLlonal LxporL lnlLlaLlve (nLl) and supporL Lhe uS aerospace lndusLry 1he uS aerospace
lndusLry ls a sLraLeglc conLrlbuLor Lo Lhe economy naLlonal securlLy and Lechnologlcal
lnnovaLlon of Lhe unlLed SLaLes" Snchez sald 1he lndusLry ls key Lo achlevlng Lhe resldenL's goals of doubllng exporLs by Lhe end
of 2014 and conLrlbuLed $78 bllllon ln exporL sales Lo Lhe uS economy ln 2010" uurlng Lhe uS avlllon openlng remarks Snchez noLed LhaL
Lhe aerospace secLor ln Lhe unlLed SLaLes supporLs more [obs Lhrough exporLs Lhan any oLher
lndusLry Snchez wlLnessed a slgnlng ceremony beLween 8oelng and AerofloL 8ussla's sLaLeowned alrllne AerofloL has ordered elghL
777s valued aL $21 bllllon and Lhe sales wlll supporL approxlmaLely 14000 [obs 1he 218 Amerlcan companles
represenLed ln Lhe uS lnLernaLlonal avlllon demonsLraLe Lhe lnnovaLlon and hard work LhaL
make us leaders ln Lhls secLor" sald Snchez l am parLlcularly pleased Lo see Lhe lncredlble
accompllshmenLs of uS companles parLlclpaLlng ln Lhe AlLernaLlve AvlaLlon luels Showcase
whlch demonsLraLes our leadershlp ln Lhls lmporLanL secLor and shows LhaL we are on Lhe rlghL paLh Lo achlevlng Lhe clean energy fuLure
envlsloned by resldenL Cbama" 1he 2011 arls Alr Show ls Lhe world's largesL aerospace Lrade exhlblLlon and feaLures 2000 exhlblLors
340000 vlslLors and 200 lnLernaLlonal delegaLlons 1he uS aerospace lndusLry ranks among Lhe mosL
compeLlLlve ln Lhe world boasLlng a poslLlve Lrade balance of $441 bllllon Lhe largesL Lrade
surplus of any uS manufacLurlng lndusLry lL dlrecLly susLalns abouL 430000 [obs and lndlrecLly supporLs more Lhan
700000 addlLlonal [obs nlneLyone percenL of uS exporLers of aerospace producLs are small and medlumslzed flrms

Lconom|c dec||ne guarantees mu|t|p|e scenar|os for nuc|ear war and turns every other
|mpact
narr|s and 8urrows hu ln Luropean PlsLory [ Cambrldge and Counselor of Lhe uS naLlonal lnLelllgence Councll Anu Member
of Lhe naLlonal lnLelllgence Councll's Long 8ange Analysls unlL (MaLhew ! and !ennlfer 8evlslLlng Lhe luLure CeopollLlcal LffecLs of Lhe
llnanclal Crlsls" Aprll WashlngLon CuarLerly hLLp//wwwLwqcom/09aprll/docs/09apr_8urrowspdf LMM)
Cf course Lhe reporL encompasses more Lhan economlcs and lndeed belleves Lhe fuLure ls llkely Lo be Lhe resulL of a number of
lnLersecLlng and lnLerlocklng forces WlLh so many posslble permuLaLlons of ouLcomes each wlLh ample 8evlslLlng Lhe luLure opporLunlLy
for unlnLended consequences Lhere ls a growlng sense of lnsecurlLy Lven so hlsLory may be more lnsLrucLlve Lhan ever Whlle we
conLlnue Lo belleve LhaL Lhe reat Depress|on ls noL llkely Lo be repeaLed Lhe |essons Lo be drawn from LhaL perlod
|nc|ude the harmfu| effects on fledgllng democrac|es and mulLleLhnlc socleLles (Lhlnk CenLral Lurope ln 1920s and
1930s) and on Lhe susLalnablllLy of mu|t||atera| |nst|tut|ons (Lhlnk League of naLlons ln Lhe same perlod) 1here |s no
reason to th|nk that th|s wou|d not be true |n the twentyf|rst as much as ln Lhe LwenLleLh century lor
LhaL reason Lhe ways ln whlch the potent|a| for greater conf||ct cou|d grow would seem Lo be even more apL |n a
consLanLly vo|at||e econom|c env|ronment as Lhey would be lf change would be sLeadler ln surveylng Lhose rlsks Lhe
reporL sLressed Lhe llkellhood LhaL Lerrorlsm and nonprollferaLlon wlll remaln prlorlLles even as resource lssues move up on Lhe
lnLernaLlonal agenda 1error|sm's appeal w||| dec||ne |f economlc growth cont|nues ln Lhe Mlddle LasL and youLh
unemploymenL ls reduced lor Lhose LerrorlsL groups LhaL remaln acLlve ln 2023 however Lhe d|ffus|on of techno|og|es and
sclenLlflc knowledge w||| p|ace some of the wor|d's most dangerous capab|||t|es w|th|n the|r reach
1errorlsL groups ln 2023 wlll llkely be a comblnaLlon of descendanLs of long esLabllshed groups_lnherlLlng organlzaLlonal sLrucLures
command and conLrol processes and Lralnlng procedures necessary Lo conducL sophlsLlcaLed aLLacks and newly emergenL collecLlons of
Lhe angry and dlsenfranchlsed LhaL become selfradlcallzed parLlcularly ln Lhe absence of economlc ouLleLs LhaL would become narrower ln
an economlc downLurn 1he mosL dangerous casualLy of any economlcallylnduced drawdown of uS mlllLary presence would almosL
cerLalnly be Lhe Mlddle LasL AlLhough lran's acqulslLlon of nuclear weapons ls noL lnevlLable worrles abouL a nucleararmed lran could
lead sLaLes ln Lhe reglon Lo develop new securlLy arrangemenLs wlLh exLernal powers acqulre addlLlonal weapons and conslder pursulng
Lhelr own nuclear amblLlons lL ls noL clear LhaL Lhe Lype of sLable deLerrenL relaLlonshlp LhaL exlsLed beLween Lhe greaL powers for mosL of
Lhe Cold War would emerge naLurally ln Lhe Mlddle LasL wlLh a nuclear lran Lplsodes of low lnLenslLy conf||ct and Lerrorlsm Laklng
place under a nuclear umbrella cou|d |ead to an un|ntended esca|at|on and broader confllcL lf clear red llnes beLween
Lhose sLaLes lnvolved are noL well esLabllshed 1he close prox|m|ty of poLenLlal nuc|ear r|va|s comblned wlLh underdeveloped
survelllance capablllLles and moblle dualcapable lranlan mlsslle sysLems also wlll produce lnherenL dlfflculLles ln achlevlng rellable
lndlcaLlons and warnlng of an lmpendlng nuclear aLLack 1he lack of sLraLeglc depLh ln nelghborlng sLaLes llke lsrael shorL warnlng and
mlsslle fllghL Llmes and uncerLalnLy of lranlan lnLenLlons may p|ace more focus on preempt|on raLher Lhan defense
poLenLlally |ead|ng to esca|at|ng cr|ses 36 1ypes of conf||ct LhaL Lhe world conLlnues Lo experlence such as over
resources cou|d reemerge parLlcularly lf proLecLlonlsm grows and Lhere ls a resorL Lo neomercanLlllsL pracLlces
ercept|ons of renewed energy scarc|ty wlll drlve counLrles Lo Lake acLlons Lo assure Lhelr fuLure access Lo energy
supplles ln Lhe worsL case Lhls cou|d resu|t |n |nterstate conf||cts lf governmenL leaders deem assured access Lo energy
resources for example Lo be essenLlal for malnLalnlng domesLlc sLablllLy and Lhe survlval of Lhelr reglme Lven acLlons shorL of war
however wlll have lmporLanL geopollLlcal lmpllcaLlons MarlLlme securlLy concerns are provldlng a raLlonale for naval bulldups and
modernlzaLlon efforLs such as Chlna's and lndla's developmenL of blue waLer naval capablllLles lf Lhe flscal sLlmulus focus for Lhese
counLrles lndeed Lurns lnward one of Lhe mosL obvlous fundlng LargeLs may be mlllLary 8ulldup of reglonal naval capablllLles could lead Lo
lncreased Lenslons rlvalrles and counLerbalanclng moves buL lL also wlll creaLe opporLunlLles for mulLlnaLlonal cooperaLlon ln proLecLlng
crlLlcal sea lanes WlLh waLer also becomlng scarcer ln Asla and Lhe Mlddle LasL cooperat|on Lo manage changlng waLer resources |s
llkely Lo be lncreaslngly d|ff|cu|t boLh wlLhln and beLween sLaLes |n a more dogeatdog wor|d


Aerospace Irance Scenar|o

1he US aerospace |ndustry |s key to the Irench economy
I1A 6$2lnLernLalLonal 1rade AdmlnlsLraLlon Aerospace lndusLry ls CrlLlcal ConLrlbuLor Lo uS Lconomy Accordlng Lo Cbama 1rade
Cfflclal aL arls Alr Show" !une 21 2011 hLLp//Lradegov/press/pressreleases/2011/aerospacelndusLrycrlLlcalconLrlbuLorLouseconomy
062111asp uavldk
A8lS lranclsco Snchez under SecreLary of Commerce for lnLernaLlonal 1rade addressed naLlonal and lnLernaLlonal groups aL
Lhe 2011 arls Alr Show Lo relnforce Lhe resldenL's naLlonal LxporL lnlLlaLlve (nLl) and supporL Lhe uS
aerospace lndusLry 1he uS aerospace lndusLry ls a sLraLeglc conLrlbuLor Lo Lhe economy
naLlonal securlLy and Lechnologlcal lnnovaLlon of Lhe unlLed SLaLes" Snchez sald 1he lndusLry ls key
Lo achlevlng Lhe resldenL's goals of doubllng exporLs by Lhe end of 2014 and conLrlbuLed $78
bllllon ln exporL sales Lo Lhe uS economy ln 2010" uurlng Lhe uS avlllon openlng remarks Snchez noLed LhaL
Lhe aerospace secLor ln Lhe unlLed SLaLes supporLs more [obs Lhrough exporLs Lhan any oLher
lndusLry Snchez wlLnessed a slgnlng ceremony beLween 8oelng and AerofloL 8ussla's sLaLeowned alrllne AerofloL has ordered elghL
777s valued aL $21 bllllon and Lhe sales wlll supporL approxlmaLely 14000 [obs 1he 218 Amerlcan companles
represenLed ln Lhe uS lnLernaLlonal avlllon demonsLraLe Lhe lnnovaLlon and hard work LhaL
make us leaders ln Lhls secLor" sald Snchez l am parLlcularly pleased Lo see Lhe lncredlble accompllshmenLs of uS companles
parLlclpaLlng ln Lhe AlLernaLlve AvlaLlon luels Showcase whlch demonsLraLes our leadershlp ln Lhls lmporLanL secLor and shows LhaL we are on
Lhe rlghL paLh Lo achlevlng Lhe clean energy fuLure envlsloned by resldenL Cbama" 1he 2011 arls Alr Show ls Lhe world's largesL aerospace
Lrade exhlblLlon and feaLures 2000 exhlblLors 340000 vlslLors and 200 lnLernaLlonal delegaLlons 1he uS aerospace lndusLry
ranks among Lhe mosL compeLlLlve ln Lhe world boasLlng a poslLlve Lrade balance of $441
bllllon Lhe largesL Lrade surplus of any uS manufacLurlng lndusLry lL dlrecLly susLalns abouL 430000 [obs
and lndlrecLly supporLs more Lhan 700000 addlLlonal [obs nlneLyone percenL of uS exporLers of aerospace producLs are small and medlum
slzed flrms

Irance |s the nuc|eus of the Luropean economy and |s a ma[or factor |n the g|oba|
economy
1WI 1homas WhlLe Clobal lnvesLlng CounLry roflle lrance" !une 2010 hLLp//wwwLhomaswhlLecom/exploreLhe
world/franceaspx
1he posLwar perlod or Lhe laLLer half of Lhe 20Lh cenLury ls ofLen referred Lo as Les 1renLe Clorleuses or Lhe 30 glorlous years 1hls perlod
wlLnessed Lhe emergence of lrance as ls a modern global economlc power lnLeresLlngly Lhough we see lrance as a
caplLallsL or a freemarkeL economy Loday lL ls acLually a blend of lnLervenLlonlsL and free markeL pollcles LhaL have propelled Lhe economy Lo
Lhe global cenLer sLage lrance played a key role ln fosLerlng cooperaLlon among members of Lhe
Luropean CommunlLy 1hls evenLually led Lo Lhe formaLlon of Lhe Luropean unlon ln 1993 1he economlc and moneLary lnLegraLlon
acLually Look place over a perlod of flve decades and lrance was one of Lhe slx foundlng members of Lhe geopollLlcal enLlLy lrance has
successfully susLalned a reasonable pace of economlc growLh slnce Lhe mld 1980s 8eLween 1984 and 1991 lLs
Cu grew aL an annual average raLe of 23 buL moderaLed Lo around 2 ln Lhe early 1990s AfLer expandlng aL an lmpresslve raLe of 33 ln
1998 and 4 ln 2000 Lhe Cu expanslon deceleraLed Lo 14 ln 2000 because of a global economlc slowdown uurlng 20042007 Lhe lrench
economy has been averaglng 2 growLh 8anked 11Lh worldwlde ln Lerms of human developmenL lrance boasLs of one of Lhe
mosL quallfled workforces ln Lurope Plgher educaLlon graduaLes form 37 of Lhe populaLlon ln Lhe 2334 age group
compared Lo Lhe Luropean unlon average of 29 1hls coupled wlLh Lhe lrench's naLural lncllnaLlon Loward
lnnovaLlon and 8u has been drlvlng Lhe counLry's economy ln 2009 lrance boasLed Lhe
dlsLlncLlon of havlng Lhe hlghesL number of lorLune 300 companles ln Lurope Whlle Lhe counLry ls
largely powered by lLs servlces secLor whlch conLrlbuLes almosL 77 of lLs Cu Lhe slgnlflcance of Lhe lndusLrlal secLor whlch accounLs for 21
of Lhe Cu cannoL be undermlned 1he counLry has a vlbranL 8ulnLenslve aerospace secLor whlch
comprlses leadlng manufacLurers of alrcrafL hellcopLers mlllLary planes and prlvaLe [eLs 1hanks
Lo Lhe avallablllLy of a hlghly skllled workforce and a pleLhora of speclallsL Lralnlng schools supporLlng Lhe segmenL lL ls no surprlse LhaL forelgn
companles operaLlng ln lrance accounL for 47 of Lhe Lurnover ln Lhls space lrance's agrofood secLor especlally Lhe healLh foods
and Lhe lnLermedlaLe foods caLegorles have been expandlng sLeadlly Many renowned mulLlnaLlonals have Lhelr research
cenLers ln Lhe counLry 1he naLlon ls also home Lo a flourlshlng blofuels markeL lL has esLabllshed
clusLers Lo develop parLnershlps beLween Lhe lndusLrlal secLor and research laboraLorles Already a
magneL for global blofuel companles lrance seems polsed Lo become Lurope's fronLrunner ln Lhe non
nuLrlLlonal use of agroresources by 2013 lrance ls also Lurope's second largesL manufacLurer
ln Lhe auLomoblle secLor and accounLs for 17 of Lhe conLlnenL's LoLal producLlon 1he counLry has been one of Lhe mosL
preferred forelgn lnvesLmenL desLlnaLlons for global auLo ma[ors ln Lhe Luropean subconLlnenL 1he secLor
boasLs of Lwo leadlng global players ln Lhe auLo lndusLry ln Lhe chemlcal segmenL Lhe counLry ls Lhe flfLh largesL
producer and Lhlrd blggesL exporLer worldwlde 1he naLlon's applled chemlcals and speclalLy chemlcals secLor ls also Lhe
second largesL ln Lurope lrance prldes lLself ln belng ls Lhe world's leadlng producer of glass producLs and
lndusLrlal glass as well as Lhe global leader ln Lhe producLlon of bulldlng maLerlals 1he counLry
ranks Lhlrd ln Lhe Luropean unlon ln Lerms of sLeel producLlon and flrsL ln Lerms of base alumlnum producLlon
numerous forelgn companles operaLe ln lrance's chemlcal secLor and accounL for 334 of Lhe Lurnover ln Lhe speclalLy chemlcals space 449
ln Lhe soaps and perfumes caLegory 40 ln Lhe base chemlcals markeL and 38 ln Lhe plasLlcs segmenL lrance ls one of Lurope's
blggesL players ln Lhe lnformaLlon and CommunlcaLlons 1echnologles (lC1) segmenL because of lLs large pool of skllled workforce
and a sLrong procllvlLy for lnnovaLlon 1he pharmaceuLlcal secLor ls also a core area of Lhe lrench economy rldlng hlgh on a sLrong research
foundaLlon 1he globe's leadlng producers of pharmaceuLlcal drugs operaLe ln Lhe counLry
caplLallzlng on Lhe easy avallablllLy of research sclenLlsLs and Lechnlclans 1hls space has been dolng
parLlcularly well because lL has bullL llnkages wlLh oLher fasLgrowlng secLors llke agrofood and cosmeLlcs Cwlng Lo lLs favorable economlc
envlronmenL and quallLy lnfrasLrucLure lrance also has a flourlshlng markeL for ouLsourced LerLlary servlces
whlch have seen an upsurge ln Lurope recenLly 1he lrench caplLal arls has Lurned ouL Lo be an aLLracLlve ouLsourclng
locaLlon for Luropean buslnesses A unlque compeLlLlve advanLage ln Lhe fashlon arena ls anoLher feaLher
ln lrance's cap arls ls Lhe largesL and undlspuLed fashlon cenLer of Lhe world a benchmark for
Lrends and sLyles 1he counLry has more Lhan 11000 companles ln Lhe fashlon LexLlle and deslgn space WlLh Lhe advanLage of
borderlng slx counLrles lrance ls slLuaLed aL Lhe crossroads of Lurope's norLhsouLh and easLwesL
LransporL rouLes 1hls vlrLually makes Lhe counLry Lhe nucleus of Lhe Luropean economy lndeed
wlLhln a 1242 mlle radlus around arls Lhe largesL markeL ln Lhe world a whopplng 600 mllllon
consumers can be accessed ln less Lhan 48 hours 1he counLry has Lurned lLself lnLo a naLural
hub for lnLernaLlonal LransporL acLlvlLles largely on Lhe back of lLs lnfrasLrucLure faclllLles
lrance possesses an 11000 km moLorway neLwork Lhe mosL exLenslve hlghspeed rall neLwork ln Lurope
several ma[or marlLlme porLs and 190 alrporLs lncludlng slx lnLernaLlonal ones arls ls a worldwlde alr LransporL hub 1hls
explalns how Lhe counLry has produced and nurLured a modern and efflclenL loglsLlcs servlces lndusLry 1he personal servlces lndusLry whlch
provldes a wlde array of famlly and healLhcare servlces ls one of Lhe fasLesLgrowlng secLors ln Lhe lrench economy lL ls also one of Lhe
largesL employers ln Lhe counLry Companles operaLlng ln Lhls space are expandlng globally leveraglng lrance's sLaLure as a unlversal
benchmark for sLandard of llvlng lrance ls Lhe reclplenL of one of Lhe largesL forelgn lnvesLmenL lnflows ln
Lurope ln facL forelgn lnvesLmenLs ln Lhe naLlon sLood aL over $138 bllllon ln 2007 second only Lo Lhe uk 1he counLry lnvesLed over
$22463 bllllon ln caplLal ouLflows globally ln 2007 agaln ranklng second only Lo Lhe uk ln Lurope and poslLloned Lhlrd across all Lhe counLrles
ln Lhe world ln 2008 lL became Lhe counLry recordlng Lhe largesL caplLal ouLflows ln Lhe Lu amounLlng Lo over $220 bllllon

Luropean econom|c dec||ne crushes the wor|d economy
8S 2 (Lombardl ls a nonresldenL senlor fellow aL Lhe 8rooklngs lnsLlLuLlon and an experL on Lhe Luropean economy WhaL ls Lhe
nexL slck economy of Lurope?" May 27 hLLp//wwwpbsorg/newshour/rundown/2010/03/wholsLhenexLslckeconomyofeuropehLml)
uCMLnlCC LCM8A8ul AL Lhls momenL Lhe crlsls has already become Luropean ln full respecL 1he euro ls a global currency lLs
Lhe second largesL currency ln Lhe world afLer Lhe dollar so whaLever happens Lo Lhe euro has repercusslons for all
Lhe oLher economles ln Lhe world We see LhaL even ln 8el[lng Lhey are followlng Lhe Luropean crlsls wlLh lncreaslng
concern because Lhey have seen Lhelr own currency Lhe renmlnbl has been appreclaLlng vlsavls Lhe euro ln a nonnegllglble way over Lhe lasL
few weeks lf Lhe Luropean economy does badly Lhey wlll be exporLlng less Lo Lurope whlch ls
really Lhelr mosL lmporLanL Lradlng parLner 1herefore Lhey mlghL feel less lncllned Lo
appreclaLe Lhelr own exchange raLe vlsavls Lhe dollar as Lhe Amerlcans have requesLed several Llmes noL leasL ln
Lhe conLexL of Lhe recenL hlghlevel meeLlngs Lhey held ln 8el[lng ln Lhe beglnnlng of Lhls week WhaL does all Lhls mean for Lhe
uS and global economy? uCMLnlCC LCM8A8ul 1hls crlsls clearly aL Lhls sLage has splllover effecLs
noL [usL ln Lhe euro area buL also vlsavls Lhlrd counLrles lncludlng Lhe uS And Lhere are aL
leasL a couple of channels Lhrough whlch Lhe uS economy may be affecLed llrsL Lhere may be
a chllllng effecL ln lLs own banklng secLor Amerlcans banks are noL dlrecLly exposed Lo Creece Powever Lhey are exposed
Lo oLher Luropean banks whlch ln Lurn are exposed Lo Creece ln Lhe absence of enough lnformaLlon Lhls may generaLe a chllllng effecL and
Lherefore break down LransacLlons ln Lhe flnanclal markeLs even lf lLs on Lhe oLher slde of Lhe ocean 1here ls also anoLher effecL and LhaL ls
because Lhe euro ls golng Lo sLay weak ln Lhe near fuLure Luropean manufacLurers wlll lncrease
Lhelr compeLlLlveness ln selllng Lhelr goods abroad and Lherefore Lhey wlll be sllghLly beLLer off
Lhan uS manufacLurers Clearly Lhls may be a problem for an economy llke Lhe uS whlch
needs Lo exporL more ln order Lo creaLe more [obs And lndeed resldenL Cbama has made lncreaslng exporLs really
one of Lhe goals of hls own economlc sLraLegy So all ln all we have seen LhaL by noL conLalnlng Lhe crlsls early enough
Lhe crlsls has now spread Lo Lhe euro area and ls LhreaLenlng Lhe sLablllLy of Lhe global
economy


Aerospace Co||aps|ng Now

Amer|ca a|ready fa|||ng beh|nd |n the |nternat|ona| aerospace |ndustry
IW 6$23 (lndlan Weekender MoLher of All ueals" hLLp//wwwlndlanweekenderconz/ages/ArLlcleueLalls/10/2430/lndla/MoLherof
alldeals AM)
8llled as one of Lhe largesL defence deals ever globally lndla's planned purchase of 126 medlum
mulLlrole combaL alrcrafL (MM8CA) has enLered Lhe flnal phase of lLs selecLlon procedure 1he
process had begun ln 2003 wlLh Lhe lndlan Alr lorce (lAl) lssulng a requesL for lnformaLlon (8ll) for new [eLflghLers Lo replace Lhe
vlnLage SovleLera MlC21s LhaL had been lLs malnsLay slnce Lhelr lnducLlon ln Lhe early '80s 1he presenL esLlmaLe of $104
bllllon ls llkely Lo escalaLe as Lhe full scope of Lhe warplane and lLs aLLendanL servlces becomes
clearer 1he lAl ls already hamsLrung by a depleLlng fleeL havlng [usL 31 squadrons of servlceable alrcrafL LhaL fall far shorL of lLs LargeLed
39 8orderlng boLh aklsLan and Chlna lndla requlres Lo bulld up lLs defences accordlngly Lo LhwarL a LwofronL assaulL lf need be ln Lhe worsL
case scenarlo Pavlng embarked upon a mlllLary modernlsaLlon programme Lhls counLry of 12 bllllon ls expecLed Lo spend more Lhan $33
bllllon over Lhe nexL flve years on defence acqulslLlons lndla's blossomlng Lles wlLh Lhe unlLed SLaLes formallsed wlLh
Lhe March 2006 slgnlng of Lhe bllaLeral clvll nuclear cooperaLlon agreemenL broughL ln Amerlcan flrms Lockheed MarLln
wlLh lLs l16ln Super vlper and 8oelng lnLegraLed uefence SysLems wlLh lLs l/A18 L/l Super PorneL ln
response Lo Lhe requesL for proposal (8l) floaLed by Lhe lAl ln AugusL 2007 1he oLher four conLenders were lrance's
uassaulL AvlaLlon wlLh lLs offerlng of 8afale Swedlsh aerospace company Saab's !AS39 Crlpen
Luropean consorLlum LuroflghLer CmbP's 1yphoon and Lhe 8usslan MlkoyanCurevlch
CorporaLlon's MlC33 8ecenLly lndla's MlnlsLry of uefence (Mou) however shorLllsLed or
down selecLed" Lhe 243Lonne 8afale and Lhe 233Lonne 1yphoon as flnallsLs for Lhe
MM8CA sweepsLakes Cne of Lhem wlll ulLlmaLely be awarded Lhe conLracL by SepLember AnalysLs were perplexed by
Lhe uefence mlnlsLry's move as Lhey wldely anLlclpaLed LhaL Lhe flnal declslon would be a
pollLlcal one raLher Lhan one premlsed on mlllLary and securlLy conslderaLlons AfLer all new
uelhl's earnesLness Lo repay WashlngLon for lLs nuclear benevolence has already made Lhe uS
lndla's Lhlrd largesL defence suppller afLer 8ussla and lsrael uS flrms have already won almosL $8 bllllon ln
defence sales wlLhln Lhe lasL four years sLarLlng wlLh Lhe $30 mllllon Lransfer Lo Lhe lndlan navy ln !une 2007 of Lhe amphlblous LransporL shlp
lnS !alashwa commlssloned lnLo Lhe uS navy ln 1971 as uSS 1renLon Cloudlng Lhe slLuaLlon was Amerlcan
ambassador Lo lndla 1lmoLhy 8oemer's abrupL reslgnaLlon Lhe very nexL day afLer Lockheed
and 8oelng were ellmlnaLed from Lhe compeLlLlon Pe had made an Amerlcan cholce a prlorlLy especlally ln llghL of a
leLLer uS resldenL 8arack Cbama had wrlLLen Lo lndlan rlme MlnlsLer Manmohan Slngh LhaL lndlcaLed LhaL favourlng Lockheed or 8oelng
would cemenL Lhe lndouS sLraLeglc parLnershlp and be muLually beneflclal ln creaLlng Lhousands of [obs ln boLh Lhe counLrles enLagon
spokesperson Col uave Lapan afflrmed We are deeply dlsappolnLed by Lhls news buL we
look forward Lo conLlnulng Lo grow and develop our defence parLnershlp wlLh lndla" Pe was noL off
Lhe mark 1he lndlan arllamenL's CablneL CommlLLee on SecurlLy (CCS) aL a meeLlng chalred by Lhe rlme MlnlsLer lasL week cleared a $41
bllllon deal wlLh 8oelng for 10 C17 ClobemasLerlll glanL sLraLeglc alrllfL alrcrafL for Lhe lAl 1he ulLlmaLe deal could be for 16 of Lhem and
would Lop $38 bllllon 1he uS lLself wlLh Lhe world's largesL defence budgeL of $893 bllllon compared Lo lndla's
$33 bllllon flnds Lhese alrcrafL exorblLanL ($200 mllllon each wlLhouL spares and Lralnlng) and has sLopped lLs
purchase 1he deal wlLh lndla wlll however save 23000 Amerlcan [obs an aspecL noLed by Ambassador 8oemer hlmself 8oelng wlll also
be supplylng elghL 8l longrange marlLlme paLrol alrcrafL for Lhe lndlan navy ln a $21 bllllon deal slgned ln !anuary 2009


Aerospace k2 US Lconomy

1he aerospace |ndustry |s the b|ggest |nterna| to the US economy
Doug|ass presldenL and CLC emerlLus of Lhe Aerospace lndusLrles AssoclaLlon member of Lhe commlsslon on Lhe fuLure of Lhe
Aerospace lndusLry regular consulLanL wlLh congress and Lhe uou on aerospace sysLems naLlonal speaker on aerospace manufacLurlng !ohn
speech glven aL Lhe Chlo Aerospace uay for Lhe Aerospace lndusLrles AssoclaLlon March 10 2011
wwwohloaerospacedaycom/presenLaLlons/!uouglassSpeechChlodoc uavldk

1he uS aerospace lndusLry ls a Lrue economlc englne for Lhe unlLed SLaLes lL provldes Lhe
foundaLlon for Lhls counLry's economlc and naLlonal securlLy and drlves Lhe Lechnologlcal
lnnovaLlon LhaL keeps Lhe unlLed SLaLes compeLlLlve Chlo ls a vlLal conLrlbuLor Lo Lhls lndusLry Aerospace ls one of Lhe
mosL lmporLanL manufacLurlng lndusLrles ln Chlo produclng worldclass producLs and servlces and provldlng Lhousands of Chloans wlLh hlghly
skllled well paylng [obs ln a wlde range of flelds mosL on Lhe cuLLlngedge of Lechnology Cver Lhe pasL Lwo years desplLe whaL many
economlsLs have called 1he CreaL 8ecesslon uS aerospace has reLurned solld resulLs leadlng
all manufacLurers ln Lrade surplus 1he aerospace and defense lndusLry ls a Lrue economlc
englne for Lhe uS economy lL supporLs more Lhan Lwo mllllon mlddleclass [obs and 30000 suppllers from all 30 sLaLes 1oLal
aerospace sales ln 2010 rose Lo $216 bllllon a new record for Lhe sevenLh sLralghL year 1he economlc beneflLs from aerospace lnclude a $33
bllllon poslLlve Lrade balance fueled by $81 bllllon ln exporLs Looklng forward LoLal aerospace sales are forecasL Lo
lmprove agaln ln 2011 reachlng nearly $220 bllllon

Aerospace |ndustry |s key to the US economy
August|ne LACLL SCCu1 former naLlonal presldenL of boy scouLs of Amerlca reLlred chalrman and CLC of Lhe Lockheed MarLln
CorporaLlon Chalr of Lhe naLlonal Academles CommlLLee on rosperlng ln Lhe Clobal Lconomy of Lhe 21sL CenLury former undersecreLary of
Lhe uS Army MSL 8SL ln AeronauLlcal Lnglneerlng [ rlnceLon unlverslLy norman unlverslLy of 1exas [ uallas newsleLLer uS Sclence
and 1echnology ls on a Loslng aLh" november 4 2003 hLLp//wwwuLdallasedu/research/fyl/031104/commenLaryhLml uavldk

1hls LranslLlon Lo a borderless economy provldes greaL opporLunlLles for companles LhaL are
prepared Lo Lake advanLage as Lhe hlsLory of Lhe aerospace lndusLry amply demonsLraLes 8uL
ln any dynamlc LechnologylnLenslve lndusLry leadershlp can be losL very qulckly 1hus many oLher lndusLrles
are now [olnlng Lhe aerospace lndusLry ln learnlng Lo compeLe ln an uncerLaln and qulckly
changlng world 1oday candldaLes for many [obs LhaL currenLly reslde ln Lhe uS are [usL a mouse
cllck away ln lreland lndla Chlna AusLralla and dozens of oLher counLrles AL flrsL manufacLurlng [obs were Lhe ones mosL suscepLlble Lo
movlng overseas l recenLly Lraveled Lo vleLnam where Lhe hourly cosL of lowskllled workers ls abouL 23 cenLs less Lhan 1/20Lh of Lhe uS
mlnlmum wage 8uL Lhe compeLlLlve dlsadvanLage ls noL conflned Lo socalled lowend [obs Lleven quallfled englneers can be hlred ln lndla for
Lhe cosL of [usL one ln Lhe uS AL Lhe same Llme oLher counLrles are rapldly enlarglng Lhelr lnnovaLlon capaclLy
1hey are lnvesLlng ln S1 and encouraglng Lhelr hlghly Lralned clLlzens who are worklng abroad
Lo reLurn home Lven more lmporLanL Lhese counLrles are creaLlng Lhe wellfunded schools and unlverslLles LhaL wlll produce fuLure
sclenLlsLs and englneers 1he uS ls noL compeLlng well ln Lhls new world CLher naLlons wlll conLlnue Lo have Lhe
advanLage of lower wages so Amerlca musL Lake advanLage of lLs sLrengLhs 8uL Lhose sLrengLhs are erodlng even as oLher counLrles are
boosLlng Lhelr capaclLles 1hroughouL Lhe 20Lh cenLury one of Amerlcas greaLesL sLrengLhs has been lLs
knowledgebased resources parLlcularly lLs S1 sysLem 8uL Loday LhaL sysLem shows many
slgns of weakness 1hls naLlons Lrade balance ln hlghLechnology goods swung from a poslLlve flow of $338 ln 1990 Lo a negaLlve flow
of $248 ln 2004 ln 2003 forelgn sLudenLs earned 39 of Lhe englneerlng docLoraLes awarded by uS unlverslLles ln 2001 uS lndusLry spenL
more on LorL llLlgaLlon and relaLed cosLs Lhan on 8u A ma[or facLor deLermlnlng uS compeLlLlveness ls Lhe quallLy of Lhe workforce and Lhe
publlc school sysLem provldes Lhe foundaLlon of Lhls asseL 8uL LhaL sysLem ls falllng speclflcally ln Lhe flelds mosL lmporLanL Lo Lhe fuLure
sclence englneerlng and maLhemaLlcs ln a recenL lnLernaLlonal LesL lnvolvlng maLhemaLlcal undersLandlng uS sLudenLs flnlshed 27Lh among
Lhe parLlclpaLlng naLlons ln Chlna and !apan 39 and 66 of undergraduaLes respecLlvely recelve Lhelr degrees ln sclence and englneerlng
compared wlLh 32 ln Lhe uS ln Lhe pasL Lhe uS economy beneflLed from Lhe avallablllLy of flnanclal caplLal 8uL Loday lL moves qulckly Lo
wherever a compeLlLlve advanLage exlsLs as shown by Lhe wllllngness of companles Lo move facLorles Lo Mexlco vleLnam and Chlna Cne of
Amerlcas mosL powerful asseLs ls lLs free enLerprlse sysLem wlLh lLs lnherenL aggresslveness and dlsclpllne ln
lnLroduclng ldeas and flushlng ouL obsolescence 8uL oLher naLlons have recognlzed Lhese vlrLues and are
seeklng Lo emulaLe Lhe sysLem 1he aerospace lndusLry ls especlally suscepLlble Lo Lhese
broader economlc Lrends WlLhouL welleducaLed sclenLlsLs and englneers Lhe lndusLry wlll noL be able Lo compeLe wlLh well
organlzed programs ln counLrles wlLh abundanL englneerlng LalenL ln addlLlon securlLy lssues ln Lhe lndusLry hlghllghL lLs rellance on
homegrown LalenL as opposed Lo lmporLlng lLs people from abroad 1roubles ln Lhe aerospace lndusLry also could
have lmpllcaLlons LhroughouL Lhe uS economy ln parLlcular Lhe lndusLry has been especlally
effecLlve aL maklng use of and produclng sysLems englneers some of whom evenLually move Lo
oLher lndusLrles lf aerospace were Lo decllne a conslderable porLlon of Lhese valuable
lndlvlduals would be losL

1he US aerospace |ndustr|a| base |s stab|||z|ng but needs more |nvestment
NSSC (naLlonal SecurlLy Space Cfflce 8eporL Lo Lhe ulrecLor Space8ased Solar ower As an CpporLunlLy for SLraLeglc SecurlLy hase 0
ArchlLecLure leaslblllLy SLudy" CcLober 10 2007 hLLp//wwwnssorg/seLLlemenL/ssp/llbrary/flnalsbsplnLerlmassessmenLrelease01pdf)

1he unlLed SLaLes musL malnLaln lLs preemlnence ln aerospace research and lnnovaLlon Lo be Lhe
global aerospace leader ln Lhe 21sL cenLury 1hls can only be achleved Lhrough proacLlve
governmenL pollcles and susLalned publlc lnvesLmenLs ln longLerm research and 8u1L lnfrasLrucLure
LhaL wlll resulL ln new breakLhrough aerospace capablllLles Cver Lhe lasL several decades Lhe uS
aerospace secLor has been llvlng off Lhe research lnvesLmenLs made prlmarlly for defense
durlng Lhe Cold WarCovernmenL pollcles and lnvesLmenLs ln longLerm research have noL kepL pace wlLh Lhe changlng world Cur
naLlon does noL have bold naLlonal aerospace Lechnology goals Lo focus and susLaln federal research and relaLed lnfrasLrucLure lnvesLmenLs
1he naLlon needs Lo caplLallze on Lhese opporLunlLles and Lhe federal governmenL needs Lo lead Lhe efforL
Speclflcally lL needs Lo lnvesL ln longLerm enabllng research and relaLed 8u1L lnfrasLrucLure esLabllsh naLlonal
aerospace Lechnology demonsLraLlon goals and creaLe an envlronmenL LhaL fosLers lnnovaLlon
and provlde Lhe lncenLlves necessary Lo encourage rlsk Laklng and rapld lnLroducLlon of new
producLs and servlces 1he Aerospace Commlsslon recognlzed LhaL Clobal uS aerospace leadershlp can only
be achleved Lhrough lnvesLmenLs ln our fuLure lncludlng our lndusLrlal base workforce long Lerm
research and naLlonal lnfrasLrucLure and LhaL governmenL musL commlL Lo lncreased and
susLalned lnvesLmenL and musL faclllLaLe prlvaLe lnvesLmenL ln our naLlonal aerospace secLor
1he Commlsslon concluded LhaL Lhe naLlon wlll have Lo be a spacefarlng naLlon ln order Lo be Lhe global
leader ln Lhe 21sL cenLuryLhaL our freedom moblllLy and quallLy of llfe wlll depend on lL and Lherefore recommended
LhaL Lhe unlLed SLaLes boldly ploneer new fronLlers ln aerospace Lechnology commerce and
exploraLlon 1hey expllclLly recommended LhaL Lhe unlLed SLaLes creaLe a space lmperaLlve and LhaL
nASA and uou need Lo make Lhe lnvesLmenLs necessary for developlng and supporLlng fuLure
launch capablllLles Lo revlLallze uS space launch lnfrasLrucLure as well as provlde lncenLlves Lo Commerclal
Space 1he reporL called on governmenL and Lhe lnvesLmenL communlLy musL become more senslLlve Lo commerclal opporLunlLles and
problems ln space 8ecognlzlng Lhe new reallLles of a hlghly dynamlc compeLlLlve and global markeLplace Lhe reporL noLed LhaL Lhe federal
governmenL ls dysfuncLlonal when addresslng 21sL cenLury lssues from a long Lerm naLlonal and global perspecLlve lL suggesLed an lncrease ln
publlc fundlng for long Lerm research and supporLlng lnfrasLrucLure and an acceleraLlon of LranslLlon of governmenL research Lo Lhe aerospace
secLor recognlzlng LhaL governmenL musL asslsL lndusLry by provldlng lnslghL lnLo lLs longLerm research programs and lndusLry needs Lo
provlde Lo governmenL on lLs research prlorlLles lL urged Lhe federal governmenL musL remove unnecessary barrlers Lo lnLernaLlonal sales of
defense producLs and lmplemenL oLher lnlLlaLlves LhaL sLrengLhen LransnaLlonal parLnershlps Lo enhance naLlonal securlLy noLlng LhaL uS
naLlonal securlLy and procuremenL pollcles represenL some of Lhe mosL burdensome resLrlcLlons affecLlng uS lndusLry compeLlLlveness
rlvaLepubllc parLnershlps were also Lo be encouraged lL also noLed LhaL wlLhouL consLanL vlgllance and lnvesLmenL
vlLal capablllLles ln our defense lndusLrlal base wlll be losL and so recommended a fenced amounL of research and
developmenL budgeL and slgnlflcanLly lncrease ln Lhe lnvesLmenL ln baslc aerospace research Lo lncrease opporLunlLles Lo galn experlence ln
Lhe workforce by enabllng breakLhrough aerospace capablllLles Lhrough conLlnuous developmenL of new experlmenLal sysLems wlLh or wlLhouL
a requlremenL for producLlon Such experlmenLaLlon was deemed Lo be essenLlal Lo susLaln Lhe crlLlcal skllls Lo concelve develop manufacLure
and malnLaln advanced sysLems and poLenLlally provlde expanded capablllLy Lo Lhe warflghLer A Lop prlorlLy was lncreased lnvesLmenL ln baslc
aerospace research whlch fosLers an efflclenL secure and safe aerospace LransporLaLlon sysLem and suggesLed Lhe esLabllshmenL of naLlonal
Lechnology demonsLraLlon goals whlch lncluded reduclng Lhe cosL and Llme Lo space by 30 lL concluded LhaL Amerlca musL
explolL and explore space Lo assure naLlonal and planeLary securlLy economlc beneflL and
sclenLlflc dlscovery AL Lhe same Llme Lhe unlLed SLaLes musL overcome Lhe obsLacles LhaL
[eopardlze lLs ablllLy Lo susLaln leadershlp ln space"





Aerospace k2 neg

Dec||n|ng aerospace |eadersh|p d|rect|y fac|||tates the emergence of host||e g|oba|
r|va|s
Snead Aerospace englneer and consulLanL focuslng on nearfuLure space lnfrasLrucLure developmenL (Mlke Pow Amerlca Can
and Why Amerlca MusL now 8ecome a 1rue Spacefarlng naLlon" Spacefarlng Amerlca 8log 6/3 hLLp//spacefarlngamerlcaneL/2007/06/03/6
whyLhenexLpresldenLshouldsLarLamerlcaonLhepaLhLobecomlngaLruespacefarlngnaLlonaspx)

CreaL power sLaLus ls achleved Lhrough compeLlLlon beLween naLlons 1hls compeLlLlon ls ofLen
based on advanclng sclence and Lechnology and applylng Lhese advancemenLs Lo enabllng new
operaLlonal capablllLles A greaL power LhaL succeeds ln Lhls compeLlLlon adds Lo lLs power whlle
a greaL power LhaL does noL compeLe or does so lneffecLlvely or by cholce becomes comparaLlvely
less powerful LvenLually lL loses Lhe greaL power sLaLus and Lhen musL allgn lLself wlLh anoLher greaL power for proLecLlon As Lhe
pace of sclence and Lechnology advancemenL has lncreased so has Lhe poLenLlal for Lhe pace of
change of greaL power sLaLus Whlle Lhe uS lnvenLed powered fllghL ln 1903 a decade laLer leadershlp ln Lhls area had shlfLed
Lo Lurope WlLhln a llLLle more Lhan a decade afLer Lhe WrlghL 8roLhers flrsL fllghLs Lhe greaL powers of Lurope were lnLroduclng aeronauLlcs
lnLo ma[or land warfare Lhrough Lhe creaLlon of alr forces When Lhe uS enLered Lhe war ln 1917 lL was forced Lo rely on lrenchbullL alrcrafL
1wenLy years laLer as Lhe Luropean greaL powers were on Lhe verge of beglnnlng anoLher ma[or Luropean war Lhe uS found lLself ln a slmllar
slLuaLlon where lLs cholce Lo dlmlnlsh naLlonal lnvesLmenL ln aeronauLlcs durlng Lhe 1920s and 1930syou may recall LhaL Lhls was Lhe era of
Ceneral 8llly MlLchell and hls famous efforLs Lo promoLe mlllLary alr powerplaced uS alr forces aL a slgnlflcanL dlsadvanLage compared Lo
Lhose of Cermany and !apan 1hls was cruclal because mlllLary alr power was qulckly emerglng as Lhe game changer for convenLlonal warfare
Land and sea forces lncreaslngly needed capable alr forces Lo survlve and generally needed alr superlorlLy Lo prevall WlLh Lhe greaL
power advanLages of becomlng spacefarlng expecLed Lo be comparable Lo Lhose derlved from
becomlng alrfarlng ln Lhe 1920s and 1930s a delay by Lhe uS ln enhanclng lLs greaL power
sLrengLhs Lhrough expanded naLlonal space power may resulL ln a reoccurrence of Lhe rapld
emergence of new or Lhe rapld growLh of currenL greaL powers Lo Lhe polnL LhaL Lhey are
capable of effecLlvely challenglng Lhe uS Many greaL powersChlna lndla and 8usslaare
already speaklng of plans for developlng spacefarlng capablllLles ?eL Loday Lhe uS reLalns a
commandlng aerospace Lechnologlcal lead over Lhese naLlons A sLrong efforL by Lhe uS Lo
become a Lrue spacefarlng naLlon sLarLlng ln 2009 wlLh Lhe new presldenLlal admlnlsLraLlon may yleld a generaLlon
or longer lead ln space noL [usL Lhrough prudenL lncreases ln mlllLary sLrengLh buL also Lhrough Lhe oLher areas of greaL power
compeLlLlon dlscussed above 1hls ls an advanLage LhaL Lhe nexL presldenLlal admlnlsLraLlon should exerclse

Space Assets k2 Lconomy


1he effect |mmed|ate|y reverberates g|oba||y
Iohnson nudson 8 LL kevln !ohnson and !ohn C Pudson h u **nC1L !ohnson and Pudson pro[ecL supervlsors [
Clobal lnnovaLlon and SLraLegy CenLer (ClSC) lnLernshlp program 1hls program assembles comblned Leams of graduaLe and undergraduaLe
sLudenLs wlLh Lhe goal of provldlng a mulLldlsclpllnary unclasslfled nonmlllLary perspecLlve on lmporLanL ueparLmenL of uefense lssues
Clobal lnnovaLlon and SLraLegy CenLer" hLLp//wwwslldeshareneL/sLephanlclark/glsclnLernpaperspacedebrlsellmlnaLlon
llfLy years afLer Lhelr lnLroducLlon lL ls dlfflculL Lo lmaglne a world wlLhouL saLelllLes Accordlng Lo Lhe SaLelllLe
lndusLry AssoclaLlon (SlA)41 saLelllLe lndusLry revenue Lopped $106 bllllon dollars worldwlde ln 2006
noLlng conLlnued governmenL and mlllLary demand and lnvesLmenL" and Lhe global
appeLlLe for more power more moblllLy more convergence" SlA predlcLs a fuLure markeL wlLh even
fasLer growLh42 As Charles Cynamon43 polnLs ouL We are llvlng ln a socleLy wlLh an lnsaLlable appeLlLe
for LechnologyWe are lncreaslngly chooslng Lo remoLely LransacL buslness Lo connecL our compuLers Lo Lhe lnLerneL Lo have an 18"
saLelllLe dlsh ln lleu of cable 1v and Lo have Lhe ablllLy Lo conLacL anyone from anywhere wlLh as small a phone as posslble1he average
person hardly reallzes Lhe exLenL Lhey rely on commerclal space sysLems44 CurrenLly Lhe followlng counLrles are ma[or acLors" ln space
lrank kloLz echoed a slmllar Lheme ln a Councll on lorelgn 8elaLlons reporL Whlle Lhe publlc conLlnues Lo ldenLlfy space mosL closely wlLh
sclenLlflc exploraLlon and hlgh advenLure space has also become a blg buslness and represenLs a huge
lnvesLmenL ln Lerms of caplLal asseLs and [obs"43 MlghL saLelllLe Lechnology be hlsLory's answer Lo CuLenberg's
prlnLlng press? never before has lnformaLlon and commerce Lraveled so qulckly Clven Lhe
lnLegraLed sLaLe of Loday's global economy any ma[or flucLuaLlon ln saLelllLe capablllLles has
Lhe poLenLlal Lo reverberaLe LhroughouL mulLlple naLlons

Loss of space assets causes econom|c co||apse and k|||s hegwe must protect them
krepon and 8|ack *cofounder and senlor research assoclaLe [ 1he SLlmson CenLer dlrecLor of Lhe SouLh Asla and Space
SecurlLy programs [ 1he SLlmson CenLer MA from Lhe School of Advanced lnLernaLlonal SLudles [ !ohns Popklns unlverslLy 8A from
lranklln and Marshal College **8esearch AssoclaLe [ 1he SLlmson CenLer 8A and M (MasLer of ubllc ollcy) [ unlverslLy of Maryland
Mlchael Samuel Space SecurlLy ro[ecL Space SecurlLy or AnLlSaLelllLe Weapons?" May 2009 SLlmson uavldk

SaLelllLes save llves sLrengLhen our economy and supporL naLlonal securlLy WlLhouL Lhe assured use
of saLelllLes pollce flre flghLers and flrsL responders would be hampered flnanclal LransacLlons
would be dlsrupLed and uS Lroops ln harm's way would be less able Lo defend Lhemselves SaLelllLes are
vulnerable as well as lnvaluable because naLlons LhaL depend heavlly on saLelllLes also have Lhe
means Lo damage Lhem no naLlon beneflLs more from space or has more Lo lose lf space becomes a shooLlng gallery
Lhan Lhe unlLed SLaLes WhaL Lhen ls Lhe mosL approprlaLe sLraLegy Lo ensure LhaL essenLlal saLelllLes wlll be avallable for use when
needed? 8ecause of Amerlca's greaL dependency on saLelllLes some have advocaLed Lhe LesLlng of anLl
saLelllLe (ASA1) weapons and Lhelr use durlng crlses or warfare ln Lhls vlew Lhe unlLed SLaLes needs Lo
domlnaLe space Lo deLer Lhe use of space weapons by poLenLlal foes and Lo wln wars declslvely
on Lhe ground AdvocaLes of space domlnance belleve ln Lwo underlylng assumpLlons LhaL warfare ln Lhe heavens ls
lnevlLable and LhaL Lhe unlLed SLaLes can succeed ln domlnaLlng space wlLh ASA1 weapons


Space assets are cr|t|ca| to the economy key source of revenue
nouston Iourna| of Internat|ona| Law 6
(lnC8LMLn1AL S1LS lC8 ACPlLvlnC SACL SLCu8l1? 1PL nLLu lC8 A nLW WA? Cl 1PlnklnC 1C LnPAnCL 1PL LLCAL 8LClML lC8
SACL" hLLp//wwwh[llorg/ArLlclellles/28_3_871pdf)

Cne of Lhe prlmary reasons for Lhe rapld prollferaLlon of space acLors ln recenL years ls Lhe growlng reallzaLlon LhaL Lhe space lndusLry
wlll conLlnue Lo play a vlLal role ln Lhe growLh of Lhe world's naLlonal economles ln 1996 global
space lndusLry revenue from commerclal sources exceeded revenue earned from governmenL
spendlng on space acLlvlLy for Lhe flrsL Llme (flfLyLhree percenL Lo forLyseven percenL of LoLal revenue respecLlvely) 42
Accordlng Lo a reporL from Lhe ueparLmenL of Commerce Lhe markeLs for commerclal space LransporLaLlon
saLelllLe communlcaLlons spacebased remoLe senslng and saLelllLe navlgaLlon LoLaled over
$80 bllllon ln global revenues ln 2000" 43 ln addlLlon Lo revenues lL has been reporLed LhaL more Lhan 800000
people worldwlde have been employed by Lhe space lndusLry slnce 1996 44 Some of Lhe mosL
proflLable hlghLech economlc secLors ln Lhe world such as sofLware and hardware developmenL and
LelecommunlcaLlons have been fueled by clvlllan space acLlvlLles 43 ln Lhe unlLed SLaLes alone space
Lechnology lndusLrles have generaLed approxlmaLely $123 bllllon worLh of proflLs ln 2000 and
lL ls esLlmaLed LhaL by 2010 uS lnvesLmenL ln ouLer space could reach as hlgh as $600 bllllon
whlch would be comparable Lo Lhe LoLal currenL uS lnvesLmenL ln Lurope 46

It's the key |nterna| ||nk
Iohnson nudson '8 LL kevln !ohnson and !ohn C Pudson h u **nC1L !ohnson and Pudson pro[ecL supervlsors [
Clobal lnnovaLlon and SLraLegy CenLer (ClSC) lnLernshlp program 1hls program assembles comblned Leams of graduaLe and undergraduaLe
sLudenLs wlLh Lhe goal of provldlng a mulLldlsclpllnary unclasslfled nonmlllLary perspecLlve on lmporLanL ueparLmenL of uefense lssues
Clobal lnnovaLlon and SLraLegy CenLer" hLLp//wwwslldeshareneL/sLephanlclark/glsclnLernpaperspacedebrlsellmlnaLlon
Commerclally Lhe economy of Lhe unlLed SLaLes ls heavlly dependenL on space asseLs ln vlrLually
every lndusLry CommunlcaLlons Clobal oslLlonlng SysLem (CS) Lechnology agrlculLure weaLher
monlLorlng and shlpmenL Lracklng ln Lhe manufacLurlng secLor are all lndlspensable Lo worklngs of Lhe
markeL7 8 WlLh lnLernaLlonal economles lnLerwoven across borders and culLures damage Lo
a crlLlcal saLelllLe mlghL pose serlous moneLary repercusslons LhroughouL mulLlple counLrles
lor example nearly a decade ago Lhe fallure of Lhe Calaxy lv saLelllLe rendered cerLaln communlcaLlons useless for Lwo days 1he fallure
of LhaL one saLelllLe lefL abouL 80 (Lo) 90 percenL of Lhe 43 mllllon pager cusLomers ln Lhe unlLed SLaLes wlLhouL servlceand 3400 of 7700
Chevron gas sLaLlons wlLhouL payaLLhepump capablllLy"9

Space power cr|t|ca| to the US economy
Iredr|ksson 203 LL Col lredrlksson ls a graduaLe of Squadron Cfflcers' School Alr Command and SLaff College and Lhe uefense
SysLems ManagemenL College Advanced rogram ManagemenL Course Pe holds Lhe 8S and MS degrees ln mechanlcal englneerlng from
Lehlgh unlverslLy and an MS ln managemenL from 1roy SLaLe unlverslLy lollowlng graduaLlon from Lhe School of Advanced Alr and Space
SLudles LL Col lredrlksson wlll serve as Chlef of lans for 14
Lh
Alr lorce aL vandenberg Al8 CA MasLers Lhesls for graduaLlon aL school of
advanced alr and space sLudles (8rlan L CLC8ALnLSS 1CWA8u A SACL CWL8 1PLC8?" A 1PLSlS 8LSLn1Lu 1C 1PL lACuL1? Cl 1PL
SCPCCL Cl AuvAnCLu Al8 Anu SACL S1uulLS lC8 CCMLL1lCn Cl C8AuuA1lCn 8LCul8LMLn1S !une)

Space facLors promlnenLly lnLo all of Lhe lnsLrumenLs of naLlonal powerdlplomaLlc economlc
and mlllLary Space experL SLephen WhlLlng descrlbes how Lhe uS can use space power Lo exerL dlplomaLlc
leverage Pls model uses uavld 8aldwln's Laxonomy of coerclon (presLlge Lechnology parLnershlps access Lo servlces legal precedenL
ob[ecLlve lnformaLlon presence LhreaL of punlshmenL) across a specLrum of crlses from MlllLary CperaLlons CLher Lhan War Lhrough Crlsls
8esponse Lo War WhlLlng avers LhaL space slgnlflcanLly conLrlbuLes Lo all Lhe levels of coerclon excepL Lhe
ablllLy Lo LhreaLen punlshmenL and ls appllcable across Lhe enLlre specLrum of confllcL erhaps
Lhe mosL obvlous example of space lnfluenclng dlplomacy was SecreLary of SLaLe Colln owell's use of
saLelllLe lmagery Lo demonsLraLe Lo Lhe un SecurlLy Councll lraq's fallure Lo comply wlLh un
resoluLlons prohlblLlng weapons of mass desLrucLlon ln addlLlon Lo dlplomaLlc leverage Lhe economlc lmpacL
of space ls slgnlflcanL Lhough dlsagreemenL exlsLs on wheLher lL ls an economlc cenLer of gravlLy ln 1999 commerclal space
LransporLaLlon and spaceenabled lndusLrles generaLed over $613 bllllon ln economlc acLlvlLy ln
Lhe uS alone lncludlng $164 bllllon ln dlrecL employee earnlngs and 497000 [obs

CpLlmlsLlc pro[ecLlons of
fuLure growLh peg cumulaLlve Amerlcan lnvesLmenLs ln space wlll reach $300 bllllon by 2010 and as
much as 1013 of Lhe gross domesLlc producL by 2020Powever Loday Lhe dlrecL economlc lmpacL of space ls
buL a fracLlon of Lhe world economlc acLlvlLy uesplLe Lhe recenL decllne ln Lhe commerclal saLelllLe and launch lndusLry space remalns a cenLer
of gravlLy because of lndlrecL effecLs

lor example Lhe preclse Llmlng provlded by Clobal oslLlonlng SaLelllLes (CS) ceslum clocks ls used by a
number of communlcaLlons and flnanclal servlces 1he Llmlng slgnal synchronlzes Lhe elecLronlc swlLchlng and Lransmlsslon of volce daLa and
vldeo llnks 1elevlslon radlo and lnLerneL Lrafflc also requlre accuraLe Llme Lransfer as well as
auLomaLed Leller machlnes banklng sysLems and wlreless communlcaLlons A case ln polnL An erranL
command Lo a CS saLelllLe on 17 March 1997 resulLlng ln one saLelllLe broadcasLlng a lncorrecL Llmlng slgnal for slx seconds caused 110 of
800 cellular phone slLes ln Lhe easLern unlLed sLaLes Lo fall crashlng Lhe enLlre sysLem for a number of hours Lven lf lL ls noL an economlc
cenLer of gravlLy Lhe lncreaslng mlllLary lnvesLmenL ln space LesLlfles Lo lLs growlng mlllLary slgnlflcance 1he enLagon's 2004 budgeL requesLed
$83 bllllon for unclasslfled space programs an lncrease of abouL $600 mllllon over 2003 Whlle lncreaslng Lhe mlllLary space budgeL represenLs
only abouL 22 of Lhe ueparLmenL of uefense budgeL requesL of $37998

LxpendlLures for classlfled lnLelllgence saLelllLes esLlmaLed aL $67
bllllon per year lncrease Lhe LoLal sllghLly



Weapon|zat|on So|ves Lcon
Space m|||tar|zat|on so|ves the economyspec|f|ca||y ASA1s
krepon and 8|ack *cofounder and senlor research assoclaLe [ 1he SLlmson CenLer dlrecLor of Lhe SouLh Asla and Space
SecurlLy programs [ 1he SLlmson CenLer MA from Lhe School of Advanced lnLernaLlonal SLudles [ !ohns Popklns unlverslLy 8A from
lranklln and Marshal College **8esearch AssoclaLe [ 1he SLlmson CenLer 8A and M (MasLer of ubllc ollcy) [ unlverslLy of Maryland
Mlchael Samuel Space SecurlLy ro[ecL Space SecurlLy or AnLlSaLelllLe Weapons?" May 2009 SLlmson uavldk
SaLelllLes save llves sLrengLhen our economy and supporL naLlonal securlLy WlLhouL Lhe assured use
of saLelllLes pollce flre flghLers and flrsL responders would be hampered flnanclal LransacLlons
would be dlsrupLed and uS Lroops ln harm's way would be less able Lo defend Lhemselves SaLelllLes are
vulnerable as well as lnvaluable because naLlons LhaL depend heavlly on saLelllLes also have Lhe
means Lo damage Lhem no naLlon beneflLs more from space or has more Lo lose lf space becomes a shooLlng gallery
Lhan Lhe unlLed SLaLes WhaL Lhen ls Lhe mosL approprlaLe sLraLegy Lo ensure LhaL essenLlal saLelllLes wlll be avallable for use when
needed? 8ecause of Amerlca's greaL dependency on saLelllLes some have advocaLed Lhe LesLlng of anLl
saLelllLe (ASA1) weapons and Lhelr use durlng crlses or warfare ln Lhls vlew Lhe unlLed SLaLes needs Lo
domlnaLe space Lo deLer Lhe use of space weapons by poLenLlal foes and Lo wln wars declslvely
on Lhe ground AdvocaLes of space domlnance belleve ln Lwo underlylng assumpLlons LhaL warfare ln Lhe heavens ls
lnevlLable and LhaL Lhe unlLed SLaLes can succeed ln domlnaLlng space wlLh ASA1 weapons

Space weapon|zat|on so|ves the economy and arms races
Dav|d sen|or space wr|ter Q Spacecom pr|ze w|nn|ng space [ourna||st Nat|ona| Space C|ub ress Award and former ed|tor|nch|ef
of the Nat|ona| Space Soc|ety's Ad Astra and Space Wor|d Magaz|ne Leonard Spacecom "Weapons |n Space Dawn of a New Lra" Iune
2 hLLp//wwwspacecom/323weaponsspacedawnerahLml uavldk
1he Llme Lo weaponlze and admlnlsLer space for Lhe good of global commerce ls now when
Lhe unlLed SLaLes could do so wlLhouL fear of an arms race Lhere 1hls ls Lhe vlew of LvereLL uolman AssoclaLe
rofessor of ComparaLlve MlllLary SLudles ln Lhe School of Advanced Alr and Space SLudles aL Maxwell Alr lorce 8ase Alabama no peer
compeLlLors are capable of challenglng Lhe unlLed SLaLes uolman explalned as was Lhe case ln Lhe Cold War and so
no race ls posslble 1he longer Lhe unlLed SLaLes walLs however Lhe more opporLunlLles for a peer
compeLlLor Lo show up on Lhe scene uolman argues LhaL ln Len or LwenLy years Amerlca mlghL be confronLlng an acLlve
space power LhaL could weaponlze space And Lhey mlghL do so ln a manner LhaL prevenLs Lhe unlLed SLaLes from compeLlng ln Lhe space
arena 1he shorL answer ls lf you wanL an arms race ln space do noLhlng now uolman sald

Space Debr|s
2AC Space Debr|s Add Cn
Lasers so|ve debr|s
Cooper Charles WrlLer [ C8S Space laser proposed Lo zap space [unk" 3/16
hLLp//wwwcbsnewscom/8301301463_16220043819301463hLml
What to do w|th a|| the space [unk now ln orblL around Lhe LarLh? Lach year LhaL quesLlon grabs a headllne or Lwo before
dlsappearlng 8uL LhaL doesnL mean Lhe problem ls geLLlng any closer Lo resoluLlon ln facL [usL Lhe opposlLe sclenLlsLs warn LhaL Lhe rlsk of a
colllslon beLween debrls ob[ecLs ln lowLarLh orblL and a space crafL remalns a real rlsk ln 2009 Pugh Lewls a lecLurer ln Aerospace
Lnglneerlng aL Lhe unlverslLy of SouLhampLon predlcLed LhaL Lhe LhreaL posed by space debrls would cllmb by 30 percenL ln Lhls
decadeerhaps Lhe mosL hlghproflle lncldenL occurred ln leb 2009 when an lrldlum saLelllLe smashed lnLo a defuncL 8usslan saLelllLe above
norLhern Slberla creaLlng an esLlmaLlng 1700 pleces of debrls ln Lhe process Also lasL year Lhe lnLernaLlonal Space SLaLlon had Lo flre lLs
LhrusLers Lo dodge an old nASA saLelllLe LhaLs floaLlng around up Lhere All Lold nASA esLlmaLes Lhere are more Lhan 300000 pleces of debrls
ln orblL around Lhe LarLh Lravellng aL speeds up Lo 17300 mph now some sc|ent|sts are propos|ng a so|ut|on Lhey say a
med|umpowered groundbased |aser comblned wlLh a groundbased te|escope cou|d reduce the r|sk of
co|||s|on by nudg|ng poLenLlally dangerous debr|s out of the way ln a recenL paper !ames Mason a nASA
conLracLor aL Lhe unlverslLles Space 8esearch AssoclaLlon ln MoffeLL lleld Callfornla and hls colleagues argue LhaL such a sysLem ls feaslble
AlLhough Lhey say more sLudy ls requlred before acLual lmplemenLaLlon of a laser colllslon avoldance sysLem Lhey reporL LhaL |ab
s|mu|at|ons suggest that the |dea wou|d work |n pract|ce 1he ldea would cenLer around Lhe deploymenL of a
medlumpowered laser of 3 Lo 10 kllowaLLs Lo essenLlally nudge debrls off poLenLlal colllslon course Cur s|mu|at|on resu|ts
suggest that such a system wou|d be ab|e to prevent a s|gn|f|cant proport|on of debr|sdebr|s
con[unct|ons they wr|te add|ng that the system cou|d substant|a||y perturb the orb|ts of
debr|s fragments through the app||cat|ons of photon pressure
D|srupt|on of space assets shatters the g|oba| economy
Clay D|||ow 8esearcher opular Sclence Magazlne 3272 enLagon A Space !unk Colllslon
Could SeL Cff CaLasLrophlc Chaln 8eacLlon ulsable LarLh CommunlcaLlons" opscl
hLLp//wwwpopsclcom/Lechnology/ arLlcle/201003/dodspace[unkLlpplngpolnLcolllsloncouldseL
caLasLrophlcchalnreacLlon
Cur re||ance on sate|||tes goes beyond the obv|ous We depend on Lhem for Lelevlslon slgnals Lhe evenlng weaLher
reporL and Lo flnd our houses on Coogle LarLh when were bored aL work 8uL beh|nd the scenes they also |nform our
warf|ght|ng capab|||t|es keep track of the g|oba| sh|pp|ng networks that keep our econom|es
humm|ng and he|p us get Lo Lhe p|aces we need Lo geL Lo v|a S Accordlng Lo Lhe uous lnLerlm Space osLure 8evlew
that cou|d a|| come crash|ng down L|tera||y Cur saLelllLes are sorely ouLnumbered by space debrls Lo Lhe Lune of 370000 pleces of
[unk up Lhere versus 1100 saLelllLes 1haL [unk ranges from nuLs and bolLs losL durlng spacewalks Lo pleces of older saLelllLes Lo whole saLelllLes LhaL no longer
funcLlon and lLs all whlpplng around Lhe LarLh aL a raLe of abouL 48 mlles per second 1he fear ls LhaL wlLh so much [unk already up Lhere a co|||s|on |s
probab|e at some po|nt 1wo large pleces of [unk collldlng could LheoreLlcally send Lhousands more poLenLlal saLelllLe klllers lnLo orblL and Lhose
could ln Lurn colllde wlLh oLher pleces of [unk or wlLh saLelllLes unleashlng anoLher swarm of debrls ?ou geL Lhe ldea 1o glve an ldea of how qulckly a cha|n
react|on cou|d get out hand conslder Lhls ln lebruary of lasL year a defuncL 8usslan saLelllLe colllded wlLh a communlcaLlons saLelllLe Lurnlng 2
orblLlng crafL lnLo 1300 pleces of [unk 1he Chlnese mlsslle LesL LhaL obllLeraLed a saLelllLe ln 2007 spawned 100 Llmes more Lhan LhaL scaLLerlng 130000 pleces of
debrls lf a chaln reacLlon goL ouL of conLrol up Lhere |t cou|d very qu|ck|y sever our commun|cat|ons our S
system (upon whlch Lhe uS mlllLary heavlly relles) and cr|pp|e the g|oba| economy (noL Lo menLlon desLroy Lhe $230
bllllon space servlces lndusLry) and who|e orb|ts cou|d be rendered unusab|e potent|a||y mak|ng some
p|aces on Larth techno|og|ca| dead zones
Lconom|c co||apse causes g|oba| nuc|ear war
Mlchael Aus||n 8esldenL Scholar Amerlcan LnLerprlse lnsLlLuLe and uesmond Lachman
8esldenL lellow Amerlcan LnLerprlse lnsLlLuLe 362 1he Clobal Lconomy unravels"
lorbes hLLp//wwwaelorg/arLlcle/100187
WhaL do Lhese Lrends mean ln Lhe shorL and medlum Lerm? 1he CreaL uepresslon showed how soclal and g|oba| chaos fo||owed
hard on econom|c co||apse 1he mere facL LhaL parllamenLs across Lhe globe from Amerlca Lo !apan are unable Lo make responslble
economlcally sound recovery plans suggesLs LhaL Lhey do noL know whaL Lo do and are slmply hoplng for Lhe leasL dlsrupLlon Lqually worrlsome ls Lhe adopLlon of
more sLaLlsL economlc programs around Lhe globe and Lhe concurrenL decllne of LrusL ln freemarkeL sysLems 1he threat of |nstab|||ty |s a
press|ng concern Chlna unLll lasL year Lhe worlds fasLesL growlng economy [usL reporLed LhaL 20 mllllon mlgranL laborers losL Lhelr
[obs Lven ln Lhe flush Llmes of recenL years Ch|na faced upward of |abor upr|s|ngs a year A susta|ned
downturn poses grave and poss|b|y |mmed|ate threats to Ch|nese |nterna| stab|||ty 1he reglme ln
8el[lng may be faced wlLh a cholce of represslng lLs own people or dlverLlng Lhelr energles ouLward leadlng Lo confllcL wlLh Chlnas nelghbors
kuss|a an oll sLaLe compleLely dependenL on energy sales has had to put down r|ots |n |ts Iar Last as we|| as |n
downtown Moscow vladlmlr uLlns rule has been predlcaLed on squeezlng clvll llberLles whlle provldlng economlc largesse lf LhaL
devlls bargaln falls aparL Lhen w|desca|e repress|on |ns|de kuss|a a|ong w|th a cont|nu|ng threaten|ng
posture toward 8usslas ne|ghbors |s ||ke|y Lven apparenLly sLable socleLles face lncreaslng rlsk and Lhe LhreaL of lnLernal or posslbly exLernal confllcL
As !apans exporLs have plummeLed by nearly 30 oneLhlrd of Lhe counLrys prefecLures have passed emergency economlc sLablllzaLlon plans Pundreds of Lhousands of Lemporary
employees hlred durlng Lhe flrsL parL of Lhls decade are belng lald off Spalns unemploymenL raLe ls expecLed Lo cllmb Lo nearly 20 by Lhe end of 2010 Spanlsh unlons are already proLesLlng
Lhe lack of [obs and Lhe specLer of vlolence as occurred ln Lhe 1980s ls haunLlng Lhe counLry Meanwhlle ln Creece workers have already Laken Lo Lhe sLreeLs Lurope as a
who|e w||| face dangerous|y |ncreas|ng tens|ons beLween naLlve clLlzens and lmmlgranLs largely from poorer Musllm naLlons who have
lncreased Lhe labor pool ln Lhe pasL several decades Spaln has absorbed flve mllllon lmmlgranLs slnce 1999 whlle nearly 9 of Cermanys resldenLs have forelgn clLlzenshlp lncludlng almosL 2
mllllon 1urks 1he xenophoblc labor sLrlkes ln Lhe uk do noL bode well for Lhe resL of Lurope A pro|onged g|oba| downturn |et a|one a
co||apse wou|d dramat|ca||y ra|se tens|ons |ns|de these countr|es Coup|e that w|th posslble
proLecLlonlsL leglslaLlon ln Lhe unlLed SLaLes unreso|ved ethn|c and terr|tor|a| d|sputes |n a|| reg|ons of the
g|obe and a loss of confldence LhaL world leaders acLually know whaL Lhey are dolng 1he resu|t may be a ser|es of sma||
exp|os|ons that coa|esce |nto a b|g bang


S8LS key Space Debr|s

S8Ls so|ve space debr|s
Lasers ln Space 1echnologlcal CpLlons for Lnhanclng uS MlllLary CapablllLles" by Mark L kogers
LleuLenanL Colonel uSAl november 19 Cccaslonal aper no 2 CenLer for SLraLegy and 1echnology
Alr War College Maxwell Alr lorce 8ase Alabama
hLLp//wwwblblloLecapleyadesneL/clencla/clencla_laser02ahLm#conLenLs Accessed 8/23/11 L1
Space uebrls Clearlng CperaLlonal ConcepL As dlscussed earller space debr|s |s a grow|ng threat to
space operat|ons n|ghenergy |asers offer the poss|b|||ty of remov|ng the debr|s AlLhough Lhe
nWv sLudy speclflcally suggesLs uslng a groundbased laser for clearlng space debrls106 bas|ng the |aser |n
space may offer better ang|es from wh|ch to |rrad|ate the debr|s 1he concepL supporLlng Lhe space
conLrol and space supporL areas would be Lo pro[ecL a laser beam from a spacebased pulsed PLL and vaporlze a
porLlon of Lhe surface of Lhe debrls creaLlng a small bursL of LhrusL from Lhe blowoff of maLerlal 8y repeaLedly
hlLLlng Lhe debrls sufflclenL lmpulse could be Lransferred Lo cause Lhe debrls Lo deorblL and burn up ln Lhe
aLmosphere 1ens Lo hundreds of pulses may be necessary Cbvlously a greaL deal of care musL be Laken Lo lnsure
Lhe LhrusL slows down Lhe debrls whlch would cause lL Lo move Lo a lower orblL and LhaL Lhe lower orblL does noL
resulL ln a colllslon wlLh any oLher space ob[ecLs Lven a colllslon wlLh oLher debrls should be avolded as lL would
llkely generaLe more pleces of debrls LhaL are smaller and more dlfflculL Lo Lrack 1hls concepL could be merged
wlLh Lhe space debrls ldenLlflcaLlon concepL uslng Lhe laser operaLlng aL low power for deLecLlon and aL hlgh
power for debrls removal CperaLlonal LnhancemenL 1here ls currenLly no meLhod Lo clear Lhe debrls from space
A spacebased |aser offers one of the few v|ab|e opt|ons to remove the threat WlLh greaLly
lncreased emphasls on explolLlng space for fuLure Al operaLlons Lhls concepL may be well worLh Lhe subsLanLlal
lnvesLmenL requlred key Lnabllng 1echnologles A hlghenergy pulsed laser wlLh a long operaLlonal llfe ls
requlred Cpencycle chemlcal lasers would noL be good cholces Current techno|ogy offers a number of
cand|date |asers LhaL can produce Lens of kllo[oule pulse energles that wou|d be suff|c|ent for Lhe mlsslon
lf Lhe ouLpuL opLlcs are large enough Lo focus Lhe beam ln a small spoL on Lhe debrls lor example a self
conLalned Lwo kllowaLL masLer osclllaLorpower ampllfler (MCA) nd?AC sysLem (called MCuS" for Moblle
Crdnance ulsposal SysLem) has been bullL for anLllandmlne mlsslons LhaL flLs ln a Lracked vehlcle Also elecLrlcally
pumped closed cycle carbon dloxlde lasers are a maLure Lechnology used for lndusLrlal weldlng Large llghLwelghL
opLlcs would clearly be requlred AccuraLe polnLlng of Lhe laser beam ls an addlLlonal requlremenL LhaL can be meL
wlLh currenL Lechnology

S8Ls on|y he|p prevent space debr|s can be used to |dent|fy debr|s wh|ch |s key to
the|r remova|
Lasers ln Space 1echnologlcal CpLlons for Lnhanclng uS MlllLary CapablllLles" by Mark L kogers
LleuLenanL Colonel uSAl november 19 Cccaslonal aper no 2 CenLer for SLraLegy and 1echnology
Alr War College Maxwell Alr lorce 8ase Alabama
hLLp//wwwblblloLecapleyadesneL/clencla/clencla_laser02ahLm#conLenLs Accessed 8/23/11 L1
Space uebrls CaLaloglng CperaLlonal ConcepL Space debr|s |s an |ncreas|ng prob|em due Lo Lhe ever
growlng number of defuncL saLelllLes fragmenLed spacecrafL and spenL rockeL boosLers Accordlng Lo Lhe new
World vlsLas sLudy Lhere are abouL 300000 pleces of debrls many ln Lhe LLC reglon
80
naLural debrls such as
small meLeorlLes and dusL also orblL Lhe earLh 1he poLenLlally hlgh relaLlve veloclLy of Lhe debrls makes Lhe lmpacL
of even small debrls on orblLlng sysLems very serlous uslng lLs globally dlsLrlbuLed Space Survelllance neLwork
(SSn) Lhe Alr lorce malnLalns an exLenslve caLalog of space ob[ecLs LhaL lncludes debrls Powever groundbased
radar and opLlcal sysLems can only measure ob[ecLs larger Lhan abouL 10 cenLlmeLers A concept that
rece|ved h|gh rank|ng by Lhe Laser Mlsslon SLudy Leam and one LhaL alds space conLrol role vla Lhe space
survelllance mlsslon ls to cata|ogue space debr|s w|th spacebased |aser surve|||ance systems that
locaLe Lrack and poLenLlally |dent|fy a much greater amount of debr|s 1h|s |nc|udes sma||er
ob[ects |n the to cm range that pose a h|gh r|sk81 1he concepL could use one laser wlLh a large
beam dlvergence Lo obLaln an opLlcal reflecLlon from Lhe debrls and a second pulsed laser wlLh small beam
dlvergence (operaLlng as a uoppler LluA8) Lo measure Lhe poslLlon and veloclLy of Lhe debrls 8y varylng Lhe
wavelengLh of Lhe LluA8 lL mlghL be posslble Lo deLermlne Lhe composlLlon of Lhe debrls or aL leasL deLermlne lf lL
ls naLural or manmade debrls 1h|s |nformat|on can be usefu| |n remov|ng the debr|s a concepL Lo be
consldered laLer CperaLlonal LnhancemenL A more exLenslve knowledge of Lhe debrls fleld can be used Lo reduce
Lhe rlsk Lo operaLlonal spacecrafL whlch have some maneuverlng capablllLy 1he daLabase can also be used Lo
selecL orblLs for new saLelllLes LhaL mlnlmlze Lhe probablllLy of colllslon key Lnabllng 1echnologles A re|at|ve|y
|ow number of sate|||tes wou|d be requ|red lf Lhey could be deslgned for auLonomous searchlng of
dlfferenL reglons of Lhe nearearLh envlronmenL A subsLanLlal onboard compuLer capablllLy would be needed Lo
process all Lhe posslble hlLs 1he laser sysLems would llkely conslsL of low power devlces glven Lhe lossfree
envlronmenL of space buL Lhe opLlcal recelvers need Lo be very senslLlve because Lhe amounL of reflecLed llghL
from a small plece of debrls would be low Scannlng sysLems would be needed Lo accuraLely polnL Lhe laser beams
8ecause Lhe search saLelllLes mlghL lllumlnaLe reconnalssance and earlywarnlng saLelllLes durlng lLs scans Lhe
wavelengLhs for Lhe lasers would need Lo be chosen Lo prevenL damage Lo Lhe senslLlve opLlcal recelvers
Work|ng sate|||tes are key to a|most every aspect of ma|nta|n|ng hard power
Covau|t 32 (Cralg ConLrlbuLlng wrlLer for Aerospace Amerlca Chlna's mlllLary space surge Aerospace
Amerlca hLLp//wwwmlllLaryaerospacecom/lndex/dlsplay/avlwlrenewsdlsplay/1394901919hLml
Ch|na may have d|scovered very sweet knees on the curve (po|nts of max|mum benef|t) |n terms of capab|||ty versus cost Look|ng forward |f they are ab|e to cont|nue to deve|op and
succeed w|th reasonab|y pr|ced sate|||tes updated w|th the |atest offtheshe|f techno|og|es they may have a potent modu|ar affordab|e adaptab|e and rep|en|shab|e m|||tary sate|||te
nuc|eus the US w||| not have Lr|ckson says W|th th|s strategy Ch|na may be ab|e to come up w|th someth|ng that |s |ncreas|ng|y more than the sum of |ts parts Lr|ckson says ne po|nts
out that Ch|nese spec|a||sts a|most un|form|y v|ew m|crosate|||te techno|ogy as essent|a| for 2st
century m|||tary deve|opment In the assessment of one ma[or Ch|nese aerospace [ourna|
1he successfu| deve|opment of reconna|ssance mon|tor|ng survey|ng and mapp|ng
commun|cat|ons and other sate|||te systems can prov|de comprehens|ve accurate and t|me|y
strateg|c and tact|ca| |nformat|on for h|gh techno|ogy warfare Another argues that
m|crosate|||tes w||| p|ay an |nd|spensab|e ro|e |n future |nformat|on warfare whlch reflecLs a vlew
wldespread |n Ch|nas defense |ndustr|a| sector nav|ng recogn|zed that space contro| prov|des the key to m|||tary v|ctor|es |n
modern warfare Ch|nese defense ana|ysts are focus|ng on deve|op|ng |mproved methods for enter|ng space us|ng space and contro|||ng space 1hey
a|ready cred|t |nd|genous|y deve|oped sate|||tes for substant|a||y |mprov|ng the nat|ons
m|||tary commun|cat|ons Lr|ckson po|nts out that Ch|nese researchers are study|ng not on|y how to attack other nat|ons sate|||tes but a|so how to defend the|r
own
hegemony key to so|v|ng nuc|ear war
Zalmay kha|||zad (uep SecreLary of uefense) Sprlng 1993 1be wosbloqtoo Ooottetly
A wor|d |n wh|ch the Un|ted States exerc|ses |eadersh|p wou|d have tremendous advantages
llrsL Lhe global envlronmenL would be more open and recepLlve Lo Amerlcan valuesdemocracy free markeLs and Lhe rule of law Second
such a wor|d wou|d have a better chance of dea||ng cooperat|ve|y w|th the wor|ds ma[or
prob|ems such as nuc|ear pro||ferat|on renegade states and |ow |eve| conf||cts I|na||y U S
|eadersh|p wou|d he|p prec|ude the r|se of another g|oba| r|va| enab||ng the U S and the
wor|d to avo|d another co|d or hot war and a|| the attendant dangers |nc|ud|ng a g|oba|
nuc|ear exchange

LMs
LM Add Cn
Space weapons are key to prevent LM terror|sm wh|ch threatens ext|nct|on
Do|man and Cooper (LvereLL hu and rofessor of ComparaLlve MlllLary SLudles [ uS Alr lorce School of Advanced Alr and
Space SLudles and 8eclplenL of CenLral lnLelllgence's CuLsLandlng lnLelllgence AnalysL Award and Penry lormer uepuLy for Lhe SLraLeglc and
Space SysLems of Lhe uCu and Chalrman of Plgh lronLelr a nonproflL organlzaLlon sLudylng lssues of mlsslle defense and space ChapLer 19
lncreaslng Lhe MlllLary uses of Space" arL of 1oward a 1heory of Spacepower" LdlLed by Charles LuLes and eLer Pays naLlonal uefense
unlverslLy ress hLLp//wwwnduedu/press/llb/pdf/spacepower/spacepowerpdf
8uL |f a s|ng|e m|ss||e were |aunched ouL of Lhe blue from deep wlLhln Lhe Aslan landmass Loday for whaLever reason a
spacebased m|ss||e defense system w|th percent re||ab|||ty wou|d be a godsend And |f a
US space defense cou|d |ntercept a s|ng|e Scud m|ss||e |aunched by terror|sts from a sh|p
near Amer|cas coasts before |t detonated a nuc|ear warhead m||es upcreat|ng an
e|ectromagnet|c pu|se that shuts down Amer|cas powergr|d ha|ts Amer|cas bank|ng and
commerce and reduces the batt|ef|e|d for Amer|cas m|||tary to th|rd wor|d status8|t m|ght
prov|de for the very surv|va| of our way of ||fe

Weapon|zat|on$M|||tar|zat|on ood
A1 Weapon|zat|on 8ad Inev|tab|e
US weapon|zat|on of space |s |nev|tab|e
8runo ruse||e senor pollcy analysL) 2(8eporL) Lhe flnal fronLler mlsslle defense ln space" 2007(
hLLp//wwwunldlrorg/pdf/arLlcles/pdfarL2600pdf)
Slnce resldenL Ceorge W 8ush Look Lhe oaLh of offlce ln 2001 concerns have grown abouL Lhe posslblllLy LhaL the Un|ted States
w||| deve|op and dep|oy space p|atforms capab|e of str|k|ng both on Larth and |n outer space
Much of the angu|sh was based on memor|es of efforts conducted by the keagan
Adm|n|strat|on to des|gn spacebased m|ss||e defence systemsthe 8r||||ant ebb|es
programme of sma|| sate|||tebased |nterceptor m|ss||esand on exlsLlng research efforLs on spacebased lasers
Cff|c|a| US documents such as the Un|ted States Space Command's V|s|on for 22 |ns|st|ng
on the dom|nance of space for m|||tary purposes dld noLhlng Lo allevlaLe Lhese concerns as everybody drew Lhe
concluslon LhaL WashlngLon's plan was Lo assure domlnance by belng able Lo wage war ln and from space1 ugly Lerms such as arms race ln
space" were used Lo descrlbe Lhe grlm fuLure LhaL Lhe pollcy as percelved by arms conLrol experLs was promlslng 8e|[|ng fe|t |t was
d|rect|y threatened and garnered support for |ts |dea of estab||sh|ng an ad hoc comm|ttee of
the Conference on D|sarmament to d|scuss a treaty on the prevent|on of an arms race |n
outer space (AkCS) Ch|na argued |n part|cu|ar that |t fe|t the dep|oyment of m|ss||edefence
systems |n space wou|d threaten |ts deterrent and wou|d consecrate the Un|ted States'
dom|nat|on of space2 1he uS governmenL sLeadlly opposed Lhe creaLlon of such a commlLLee for fear LhaL a LreaLy would reduce lLs
ablllLy Lo operaLe ln space and undermlne lLs securlLy lnLeresL3 lL ls lmprobable LhaL such a poslLlon wlll change ln Lhe comlng yearsor ever
as uS mlllLary dependence on lLs space asseLs ls becomlng ever more lmporLanL 1h|s art|c|e argues that even |f the
Un|ted States |s ||ke|y to cont|nue res|st|ng attempts to re|nforce the ex|st|ng treaty on the
m|||tar|zat|on of space (the Cuter Space 1reaty) s|nce most of |ts future secur|ty and defence
w||| be based on spacebased p|atforms the dep|oyment of spacebased weapons does not
seem to be |ts a|m 1herefore lL seems posslble Lo flnd a way Lo balance uS securlLy concerns and Lhe necesslLy Lo prevenL an arms
race ln space
Current us po||cy about space m|||tar|zat|on |s |ead|ng an arms kace
8runo ruse||e senor pollcy analysL) 2(8eporL) Lhe flnal fronLler mlsslle defense ln space" 2007(
hLLp//wwwunldlrorg/pdf/arLlcles/pdfarL2600pdf)
Conslderlng Lhe currenL global securlLy slLuaLlon and Lrends any debaLe on Lhe deploymenL of weapons ln space should be focused on flndlng a
balance beLween all sLaLes' securlLy needs raLher Lhan on Lrylng Lo flnd a way Lo ban Lhe larger specLre of mlllLary appllcaLlon plaLforms ln
space luLure uS admlnlsLraLlons may be wllllng Lo engage ln a debaLeeven negoLlaLlonon Lhe weaponlzaLlon of space lf uS securlLy
concerns could really be addressed by lL 1o make th|s poss|b|e a tentat|ve f|rst step wou|d be to recogn|ze
that not a|| spacebased weapons const|tute a threat to |nternat|ona| secur|ty Some may
even enhance |tsuch as a future g|oba| capab|||ty to |ntercept |nf||ght m|ss||es f|red from a
rogue state Ia||ure to make any concess|on on the rea||ty of the pro||ferat|on concern and
the potent|a| of space systems to address th|s concern w||| probab|y |ead to the cont|nuat|on
of the present US po||cy and u|t|mate|y to the absence of any progress |n the prevent|on of an
arms race |n space
Space Weapon|zat|on Inev|tab|e
Space weapon|zat|on |nev|tab|e
karl Mue||er senlor pollLlcal sclenLlsL aL Lhe 8Anu CorporaLlon ad[uncL professor ln Lhe
SecurlLy SLudles rogram aL CeorgeLown unlverslLy hu ln pollLlcs rlnceLon unlverslLy 8A
ln pollLlcal sclence unlverslLy of Chlcago 3/27/2002 ls Lhe WeaponlzaLlon of Space
lnevlLable?" hLLp//lsaneLcclLarlzonaedu/noarchlve/muellerhLml (searched space
weaponlzaLlon lnevlLable")
lar and away Lhe besL argumenL LhaL space weaponlzaLlon ls lnevlLable and Lhe only such argumenL LhaL can plauslbly sLand on lLs own ls LhaL
the m|||tary ut|||ty of space weapons for the Un|ted States and$or |ts enem|es w||| soon be so
great that the |mperat|ve of protect|ng nat|ona| secur|ty w||| make space weapon|zat|on
|mposs|b|e for rat|ona| statesmen to res|st LxacLly whaL Lhese weapons would do and how varles from one
weaponlzaLlon vlslon Lo anoLher buL Lhe sLandard expecLaLlon ls LhaL space weapons wou|d eventua||y defend
fr|end|y sate|||tes aga|nst enemy attack attack enemy space weapons and other sate|||tes
that perform |mportant m|||tary funct|ons shoot down |ongrange ba|||st|c m|ss||es and
conduct attacks aga|nst enemy a|r and surface forces and other terrestr|a| targets33 Some
weaponlzaLlon advocaLes anLlclpaLe LhaL space weapons wlll ulLlmaLely supplanL many or even mosL Lypes of LerresLrlal mlllLary forces oLhers
have more modesL expecLaLlons buL all predlcL LhaL space weapons wlll be Lhe besL and ln some cases Lhe only sysLems avallable Lo fulflll aL
leasL some key mlllLary roles 1he core of th|s |nev|tab|||ty argument |s that even (or espec|a||y) |f the
Un|ted States chooses not to bu||d space weapons other countr|es w||| certa|n|y do so |n
|arge part because of the great and st||| grow|ng degree to wh|ch US m|||tary operat|ons
depend upon what has trad|t|ona||y been known as "space force enhancement" the use of
sate|||tes to prov|de a vast array of serv|ces |nc|ud|ng commun|cat|ons reconna|ssance
nav|gat|on and m|ss||e |aunch warn|ng w|thout wh|ch Amer|can m|||tary power wou|d be
cr|pp|ed 1h|s para||e|s the argument that the |mportance of sate|||tes to the US economy
w||| make them an |rres|st|b|e target except that m|||tary sate|||tes are far more
|nd|spensab|e and successfu| attacks aga|nst a re|at|ve|y sma|| number of them cou|d have a
cons|derab|e m|||tary |mpact for examp|e by concea||ng preparat|ons for an |nvas|on or by
d|srupt|ng US operat|ons at a cr|t|ca| [uncture34 k|va|s of the Un|ted States m|ght a|so f|nd
spacetoearth weapons to be a very attract|ve way to counter US advantages |n m|||tary
power pro[ect|on


8MD No L|nk

8MD so|ves weapon|zat|on of space
May Cllfford MAu ln Lhe 21sL CenLury 77
hLLp//wwwalnaorg/news/20110707100144hLm
1he presldenLs advlsers oppose spacebased mlsslle defense 1hey charge LhaL deploylng such
a sysLem would mlllLarlze space l Lhlnk Lhey have lL exacLly backwards Such a sysLem would
be llke posLlng a Weapons rohlblLed slgn ln space lL would prevenL mlsslles from passlng
Lhrough space on Lhe way Lo Lhelr lnLended vlcLlms lsnL LhaL Lhe deflnlLlon of demlllLarlzlng
space? lndeed Lhe lnsLlLuLe for uefense Analysls (luA) recenLly conducLed a sLudy and
concluded LhaL Lhese concerns cosL Lhe fear of vlolaLlng lnLernaLlonal agreemenLs and
creaLlng space debrls (anoLher ob[ecLlon volced by opponenLs) are wlLhouL merlL 1he Pouse
of 8epresenLaLlves recenLly passed Lhe naLlonal uefense AuLhorlzaLlon blll and lncluded a
provlslon LhaL requlres Lhe Mlsslle uefense Agency Lo bulld on Lhls sLudy by analyzlng Lhe
operaLlonal and Lechnlcal aspecLs of developlng and deploylng S8l 1he SenaLe would be wlse Lo
follow sulL lf we donL uLlllze space Lo proLecL llves do we really Lhlnk LhaL oLhers Lhe
lranlans Lhe norLh koreans Lhe Chlnese Lhe 8usslans wlll noL evenLually develop Lhe means
Lo use space for Lhelr own less benevolenL ends?

Dep|oyment of 8MD w||| be countered by d|a|ogue and cooperat|on not space races
L|ster Charles 8 uS Mlsslle uefence and Space SecurlLy a SecurlLy ullemma for Chlna?"
318 hLLp//wwwelrlnfo/?p7712
WlLhln Lhe pollLlcal sphere Lhe Chlnese reacLlon Lo uS 8Mu and space securlLy pollcy has been on Lhe
whole remarkably dlfferenL ln LhaL lL has emphaslzed Lhe cruclal lmporLance of dlalogue and
economlc engagemenL Consclous of hlsLory's rlslng powers belng profoundly LhreaLenlng and vlolenL Chlna has been
keen Lo sLress lLs 'peaceful rlse' as a 'responslble greaL power' 1he Chlnese noLlon of Lhe 'new
securlLy concepL' (xln anquan guandlan) where economlc engagemenL and Lrade relaLlons are
deemed more lmporLanL for naLlonal securlLy Lhan compeLlLlon wlLhln confllcLlng and
anLagonlsLlc ldeologlcal blocs now largely dlrecLs Chlnese forelgn pollcy 1hls polnLs Lo a wlder Lrend of
consLrucLlvlsL lnfluence ln Chlnese forelgn pollcy 1here seems Lo be a sLrong bellef relnforced by LradlLlonal Confuclan Leachlng LhaL Lhrough
effecLlve publlc dlplomacy and sofL power Chlna can aLLracL lLs reglonal nelghbours Lowards a Chlnese perspecLlve and esLabllsh a sLable and
cooperaLlve perlpheral securlLy envlronmenL governed by Lhe noLlons of comprehenslve securlLy (zonghe anquan) and harmony lrom an
exLernal frame of reference such a pollcy lronlcally seems Lo be a more subLle verslon of whaL Chlna has percelved as a uS pollcy of
conLalnmenL plus engagemenL!"


SSA So|ves Weapon|zat|on

C|v|||an SSA so|ves fears about weapon|zat|on
aspar|n| and M|randa Clovannl space experL aL lsLlLuLo Affarl lnLernazlonall lLaly and valerle Space slLuaLlonal
awareness an overvlew" SLudles ln Space ollcy 2010 volume 4 4 7387

Lven lf Lough SSA mlllLary lmpllcaLlons are prevalenL supporLers of Lhe nonweaponlsaLlon of space look aL Lhe oLher slde of Lhe coln lndeed
agreelng on Lhe need for beLLer awareness of whaL happens ln space Lhey adopL a dlfferenL perspecLlve and conslder SSA as a ma[or
Lool Lo enable a conLlnulng peaceful use of space" 77 1o Lhls end a speclc proposal ls LhaL of 8rlan Weeden Secure
World loundaLlon who recommends Lhe creaLlon of an lnLernaLlonal clvll Space SlLuaLlonal Awareness
sysLem whose goal would be Lo provlde all space acLors access Lo Lhe Lools needed for safe and
susLalnable acLlvlLy ln LarLh orblL" 78 1he fundamenLal dlfference beLween Lhls klnd of sysLem
and mlllLary SSA ls ln Lhe lnformaLlon lL provldes focuslng only on Lhe locaLlng of an ob[ecL ln
LarLh orblL and a polnL of conLacL for LhaL ob[ecL along wlLh lnformaLlon abouL space weaLher"
79 Moreover such a clvll sysLem could provlde several beneLs Lo Lhe lnLernaLlonal communlLy ln
addlLlon Lo Lhe LradlLlonal lnformaLlon generally provlded by SSA sysLems Weeden says lL could
lncrease lnLernaLlonal cooperaLlon and Lransparency (and Lherefore muLual LrusL) ln space acLlvlLles and
also be poLenLlal verlcaLlon mechanlsm for a code of conducL or a space Lrafc managemenL
sysLem LhaL mlghL be creaLed ln Lhe fuLure


SSA key to deterrence capab|||t|es
aspar|n| and M|randa Clovannl space experL aL lsLlLuLo Affarl lnLernazlonall lLaly and valerle Space slLuaLlonal
awareness an overvlew" SLudles ln Space ollcy 2010 volume 4 4 7387
1he relaLlve weakness of space asseLs (as was furLher demonsLraLed by Lhe Amerlcan use of a modled Mlsslle uefence lnLercepLor and relaLed
asseLs ln order Lo desLroy a rogue uS lnLelllgence saLelllLe ln 2008) makes Lhe uS an aLLracLlve LargeL for an asymmeLrlcal aLLack (weak Lo
sLrong) 1hls ls parLlcularly Lrue lf we bear ln mlnd LhaL ln Lhe fuLure an lncreaslng number of counLrles wlll
have access Lo space (whlle aL Lhe same Llme belng less rellanL on space Lhan Lhe uS mlllLary) and due Lo Lhe absence of
a clear ldenLlcaLlon sysLem could launch an aLLack wlLhouL belng ldenLled or held
accounLable for lL ln Lhls respecL Lhe space envlronmenL could look slmllar Lo Lhe cybersphere where
Lhe currenL dlfculLy of Lracklng Lhe orlgln of an aLLack nullles poLenLlal law enforcemenL or
dlssuaslon responses ln order Lo reesLabllsh deLerrence lL ls necessary Lo eld a rellable
sysLem LhaL deLermlnes Lhe orlgln of a poLenLlal aLLack agalnsL a saLelllLe and makes lL posslble
Lo manoeuvre Lo counLer Lhe aLLack and reLallaLe agalnsL lL 1he sysLem should also be able Lo avold false alarms and
Lo dlsLlngulsh beLween dellberaLe aLLacks and accldenLal lnLerference ALLacklng a mlllLary asseL ln space ls an acL of
war LhaL carrles all Lhe pollLlcal legal and operaLlonal consequences LhaL apply Lo ground
aLLacks AdopLlng a deLerrence pollcy LhaL clearly sLaLes Lhe wlll and lnLenL Lo reacL ln a LlLfor
LaL fashlon noL only agalnsL anoLher space asseL buL for example agalnsL landbased space
faclllLles LhaL glve access Lo space would be proporLlonal and sLablllslng 1he avallablllLy of a
rellable SSA sysLem ls essenLlal Lo esLabllsh Lhe credlblllLy of such a deLerrenL

US Space Weapon|zat|on ood n|gh round

US space dep|oyment prevents m|suse of space on|y gett|ng there f|rst so|ves
Do|man ur LvereLL Carl rofessor of ComparaLlve MlllLary SLudles ln Lhe uS Alr lorce
School lqb ltootlet uS MlllLary 1ransformaLlon and Weapons ln Space" 9/14 earllamenL
Conference on Space SecurlLy hLLp//wwwe
parlneL/pages/space_hearlng_lmages/Confaper20uolman20uS20MlllLary201ransform
2020Spacepdf

lndeed lL ls concern for Lhe unanLlclpaLed arrlval of Lechnology x LhaL lnlLlally moLlvaLes my own preference for a pollcy advocaLlng lmmedlaLe deploymenL of space
weapons So long as Amerlca ls Lhe sLaLe mosL llkely Lo acqulre a breakLhrough Lechnology ln Lhls area my concern ls llmlLed Lo Lhe problem of leLLlng Lechnology
Lake us where lL wlll 8uL whaL lf an enemy of democraLlc llberallsm should suddenly acqulre Lhe means Lo place qulckly and cheaply mulLlple weapons lnLo orblL?
1he advanLages galned from conLrolllng Lhe hlgh ground of space would accrue Lo lL as surely as
Lo any llberal sLaLe and Lhe concomlLanL loss of mlllLary power from Lhe denlal of space Lo our
alreadydependenL mlllLary force could cause Lhe lmmedlaLe demlse of Lhe exLanL lnLernaLlonal
sysLem 1he longer Lhe uS dlLhers on lLs responslblllLles Lhe more llkely a poLenLlal opponenL
could selze lowearLh orblL before Amerlca could respond And Amerlca would respond flnally 8uL would anoLher sLaLe?
lf Amerlca were Lo weaponlze space Loday lL ls unllkely LhaL any oLher sLaLe or group of sLaLes
would flnd lL raLlonal Lo counLer ln klnd 1he enLry cosL Lo provlde Lhe lnfrasLrucLure necessary
ls Loo hlgh hundreds of bllllons of dollars aL mlnlmum 1he years of lnvesLmenL lL would Lake
Lo achleve a mlnlmal counLerforce capablllLyessent|a||y from scraLchwould provlde more
Lhan ample Llme for Lhe uS Lo enLrench lLself ln space and readlly counLer prellmlnary efforLs Lo dlsplace lL 1he Lremendous
efforL ln Llme and resources would be worse Lhan wasLed MosL sLaLes |f not a|| would opL noL Lo counLer uS
deploymenLs ln klnd 1hey mlghL oppose uS lnLeresLs wlLh asymmeLrlc balanclng dependlng on how aggresslvely Amerlca
uses lLs new power buL Lhe llkellhood of a hemorrhag|ng arms race ln space should Lhe uS deploy
weapons LhereaL leasL for Lhe nexL few yearsls exLremely remoLe 1hls raLlonallLy does noL dlspuLe Lhe facL LhaL uS deploymenL of
weapons ln ouLer space would represenL Lhe addlLlon of a poLenL new mlllLary capaclLy one LhaL would asslsL ln exLendlng Lhe currenL perlod of Amerlcan
hegemony well lnLo Lhe fuLure 1hls would clearly be LhreaLenlng and Amerlca musL expecL severe condemnaLlon and lncreased compeLlLlon ln perlpheral areas
8uL such an ouLcome ls less LhreaLenlng Lhan any oLher sLaLe dolng so lacemenL of weapons
ln space by Lhe unlLed SLaLes would be percelved correcLly as an aLLempL aL conLlnulng
Amerlcan hegemony AlLhough Lhere ls obvlous opposlLlon Lo Lhe currenL lnLernaLlonal balance
of power Lhe sLaLus quo Lhere ls also a sense LhaL lL ls aL leasL Lolerable Lo Lhe ma[orlLy of
sLaLes A conLlnuaLlon of lL ls Lhus mlnlmally accepLable even Lo sLaLes worklng Lowards lLs demlse So long as Lhe uS does noL employ lLs power arblLrarlly
Lhe slLuaLlon would be bearable lnlLlally and grudglngly accepLed over Llme Cn Lhe oLher hand
an aLLempL by any oLher sLaLe Lo domlnaLe space would be parL of an efforL Lo break Lhe land
seaalr domlnance of Lhe unlLed SLaLes ln preparaLlon for a new lnLernaLlonal order wlLh Lhe
weaponlzlng sLaLe aL Lhe Lop 1he acLlon would be a challenge Lo Lhe sLaLus quo noL a
perpeLuaLlon of lL Such an evenL would be dlsconcerLlng Lo naLlons LhaL accepL Lhe currenL
lnLernaLlonal order (lncludlng Lhe venerable lnsLlLuLlons of Lrade flnance and law LhaL operaLe wlLhln lL) and lnLolerable Lo Lhe uS As leader of
Lhe currenL sysLem Lhe uS could do no less Lhan engage ln a perhaps rulnous space arms race save
graclously declde Lo sLep aslde 1here ls anoLher perhaps far more compelllng reason LhaL space weaponlzaLlon wlll ln Llme be less
LhreaLenlng Lo Lhe lnLernaLlonal sysLem Lhan wlLhouL lL Cne of Lhe more cacophonous refralns agalnsL weapons
procuremenL of any klnd ls LhaL Lhe money needed Lo purchase Lhem ls beLLer spenL elsewhere lL ls a slmple cllche buL a powerful one Space weapons ln parLlcular
wlll be very very expenslve Are Lhere noL a Lhousand uses LhaL are more beneflclal for Lhe money? 8uL fundlng for weapons does noL come dlrecLly from
educaLlon or houslng or LransporLaLlon budgeLs lL comes from mlllLary budgeLs And so Lhe quesLlon should noL be dlrecLed aL parLlcular weapons buL aL all
weapons lmmedlaLely we see LhaL Lhe lmpacL on Lhe budgeL of slgnlflcanL lncreases ln space weapons wlll be decreases ln fundlng for combaL alrcrafL Lhe surface
baLLle fleeL and ground forces 1hls creaLes a dllemma for boLh pro and anLlspace weaponlzaLlon camps Space advocaLes musL sell Lhelr ldeas Lo fellow pro
weapons groups by maklng Lhe case LhaL Lhe advanLages Lhey provlde ouLwelgh Lhe capablllLles foregone 1hls ls a mlghLy Lask 1he Lens (llkely hundreds) of bllllons
of dollars needed Lo develop LesL and deploy a mlnlmal space weapons sysLem wlLh Lhe capaclLy Lo engage a few LargeLs around Lhe world could dlsplace a half a
dozen or more alrcrafL carrler baLLle groups enLlre alrcrafL procuremenL programs (such as Lhe l22) and several heavy armored dlvlslons 1hls ls a Lough sell for
supporLers of a sLrong mlllLary lL ls an even more dlfflculL dllemma for Lhose who oppose weapons ln general and space weapons ln parLlcular 8amlflcaLlons for
Lhe mosL crlLlcal currenL funcLlon of Lhe army navy and marlnes are profoundpaclflcaLlon occupaLlon and conLrol of forelgn LerrlLory WlLh Lhe downslzlng of
LradlLlonal weapons Lo accommodaLe helghLened space expendlLures Lhe ablllLy of Lhe uS Lo do all Lhree wlll wane slgnlflcanLly AL a Llme when many are calllng for
lncreased capablllLy Lo paclfy and pollce forelgn lands ln llghL of Lhe noendlnslghL occupaLlon of lraq and AfghanlsLan space weapons proponenLs musL advocaLe
reducLlon of Lhese capablllLles ln favor of a sysLem LhaL wlll have no d|rect potent|a| to do so nence Lhe argumenL
LhaL Lhe unllaLeral deploymenL of space weapons wlll preclplLaLe a dlsasLrous arms race ls
mlsplaced 1o be sure space weapons are offenslve by Lhelr very naLure 1hey deLer vlolence
by Lhe omnlpresenL LhreaL of preclse measured and unsLoppable reLallaLlon 1hey offer no
advanLage lf Lhe LargeL seL consldered ls noL global 8uL Lhey also offer no advanLage ln Lhe
mlsslon of LerrlLorlal occupaLlon As such Lhey are far less LhreaLenlng Lo Lhe lnLernaLlonal
envlronmenL Lhan any comblnaLlon of weapons employed ln Lhelr sLead A sLaLe employlng
offenslve deLerrence Lhrough spaceweapons can punlsh a Lransgressor sLaLe buL ls ln a poor
poslLlon Lo challenge lLs soverelgnLy 1he Lransgressor sLaLe ls less llkely Lo succumb Lo Lhe
securlLy dllemma lf lL percelves lLs naLlonal survlval ls noL aL rlsk Moreover Lhe Lremendous
expense of space weapons lnhlblLs Lhelr lndlscrlmlnaLe use Cver Llme Lhe world of soverelgn
sLaLes wlll recognlze LhaL Lhe uS does noL LhreaLen selfdeLermlnaLlon lnLernally Lhough lL challenges any
aLLempLs Lo lnLervene mlllLarlly ln Lhe pollLlcs of oLhers and has severely resLrlcLed lLs own capaclLy Lo do so Amerlca wlll malnLaln Lhe capaclLy Lo lnfluence
declslons and evenLs beyond lLs borders wlLh mlllLary force lf necessary 1he operaLlonal deploymenL of space weapons would lncrease LhaL capaclLy by provldlng
for nearly lnsLanLaneous force pro[ecLlon worldwlde 1hls force would be preclse unsLoppable and deadly AL Lhe same Llme Lhe uS musL forego some of lLs ablllLy
Lo lnLervene dlrecLly ln oLher sLaLes because lLs capaclLy Lo do so wlll have been dlmlnlshed ln Lhe budgeLary Lradeoffs requlred 1ransformaLlon of Lhe Amerlcan
mlllLary assures LhaL Lhe lnLenLlons of currenL and fuLure leaders wlll have buL a mlnor role Lo play ln lnLernaLlonal affalrs 1he llmlLed requlremenL
for collaLeral damage need for preclslon Lo allay Lhe low volume of flre and Lremendous cosL
of space weapons wlll guaranLee Lhey are used only for hlgh value Llme senslLlve LargeLs
WheLher or noL Lhe unlLed SLaLes deslres Lo be a good nelghbor ls noL necessary Lo an opposlng
sLaLe's calculaLlon of survlval WlLhouL soverelgnLy aL rlsk fear of a space domlnanL Amerlcan
mlllLary wlll subslde 1he uS wlll malnLaln lLs poslLlon of hegemony as well as lLs securlLy and
Lhe world wlll noL be LhreaLened by Lhe specLer of a fuLure Amerlcan emplre Selzlng Lhe
lnlLlaLlve and securlng lowLarLh orblL now whlle Lhe uS ls unchallenged ln space would do
much Lo sLablllze Lhe lnLernaLlonal sysLem and prevenL an arms race ls space Irom |owLarth
orb|t (LLC) the enhanced ablllLy Lo deny any aLLempL by anoLher naLlon Lo place mlllLary asseLs
ln space or to read||y engage and destroy terrestr|a| ASA1 capac|ty makes Lhe posslblllLy of
large scale space war and or mlllLary space races less llkely noL more Why would a sLaLe expend Lhe efforL Lo compeLe ln
space wlLh a superpower LhaL has Lhe exLraordlnary advanLage of holdlng securely Lhe hlghesL ground aL Lhe Lop of Lhe gravlLy well? So long as Lhe
conLrolllng sLaLe demonsLraLes a capaclLy and a wlll Lo use force Lo defend lLs poslLlon ln effecL
expendlng a small amounL of vlolence as needed Lo prevenL a greaLer conflagraLlon ln Lhe
fuLure Lhe llkellhood of a fuLure war ln space ls remoLe Moreover lf Lhe uS were wllllng Lo
deploy and use a mlllLary space force LhaL malnLalned effecLlve conLrol of space and dld so ln a
way LhaL was percelved as Lough nonarblLrary and efflclenL such an acLlon would serve Lo
dlscourage compeLlng sLaLes from fleldlng opposlng sysLems Should Lhe uS use lLs advanLage Lo pollce Lhe heavens
(assumlng Lhe enLlre cosL on lLs own) and allow unhlndered peaceful use of space by any and all naLlons for economlc and sclenLlflc developmenL over Llme lLs
conLrol of LLC could be vlewed as a global asseL and a publlc good Much ln Lhe manner LhaL Lhe 8rlLlsh malnLalned conLrol of Lhe hlgh seas enforclng lnLernaLlonal
norms of lnnocenL passage and properLy rlghLs Lhe uS could prepare ouLer space for a longoverdue bursL of economlc expanslon Concluslons Space
weaponlzaLlon ls a crlLlcal and necessary componenL ln Lhe process of LransformaLlon well under way a process LhaL cannoL be reversed Cnce Amerlca
demonsLraLed Lhe capaclLy Lo sLrlke preclsely lL could only go back Lo Lhe klnd of lndlscrlmlnanL LargeLlng and heavy collaLeral damage LhaL characLerlzed prespace
warfare lf lL were engaged ln a war of naLlonal survlval And lf Lhere are fuLure Lechnologlcal economlc and perhaps soclal beneflLs Lo be derlved from developlng
and deploylng weapons Lhey wlll cerLalnly noL come from lncreaslng Lhe sLock of currenL sysLems 1hey wlll only come lf aL all from Lhe developmenL of new
hlghly complex and sclenLlflcally heurlsLlc space sLealLh preclslon and lnformaLlon sysLems As leader of Lhe lnLernaLlonal
communlLy Lhe unlLed SLaLes flnds lLself ln Lhe unenvlable poslLlon LhaL lL musL make declslons
for Lhe good of all Cn Lhe lssue of space weaponlzaLlon Lhere appears no one besL opLlon no
maLLer Lhe cholce selecLed Lhere are Lhose who wlll beneflL and Lhose who wlll suffer 1he
Lragedy of Amerlcan power ls LhaL lL musL make a cholce and Lhe worsL cholce ls Lo do noLhlng
And yeL ln Lhe process of chooslng lL has a greaL advanLageLhe moral amblgulLy of lLs people regardlng Lhe use of
power 1here ls no quesLlon LhaL corrupLed power ls a dangerous Lhlng buL perhaps only
Amerlcans are so concerned wlLh Lhe posslblllLy LhaL Lhey Lhemselves wlll be corrupLed 1hey
fear whaL Lhey could become no oLher sLaLe has such poLenLlal for selfresLralnL lL ls Lhls
lnLrospecLlon Lhls selfangsL LhaL makes Amerlca Lhe besL cholce Lo lead Lhe world Loday and
Lomorrow lL ls noL perfecL buL perhaps lL ls perfecLlble erhaps Lhe mosL lmporLanL lnslghL Lo come from a dlscusslon of
LransformaLlon ln war ls Lhe noLlon LhaL space weapons along wlLh Lhe parallel developmenL of lnformaLlon preclslon and sLealLh capablllLles presenLs ln our era a
Lrue revoluLlon ln mlllLary affalrs As such Lhese Lechnologles and capablllLles wlll propel Lhe world lnLo an uncerLaln new Age lor beLLer or worse Lhe fuLure can
be denled only by a spasm of nuclear nlhlllsm 1he sLaLes LhaL move forward agalnsL Lhe fears of Lhe many and harness Lhese new Lechnologles Lo a forwardlooklng
sLraLegy of cooperaLlve advanLage for all have Lhe poLenLlal Lo lnlLlaLe humanlLles' flrsL global golden age 1he very naLure of space requlres LhaL Lhe ulLlmaLe use of
lL musL be boLh encompasslng and lncorporaLlng buL Lhe naLure of lnLernaLlonal relaLlons and Lhe lessons of hlsLory
dlcLaLe LhaL lL begln wlLh Lhe vlslon and wlll of a few acLlng ln Lhe beneflL of all

Cn|y gett|ng ahead |n space so|ves for war and arms race treat|es are |neffect|ve
8rookes eLer PerlLage loundaLlon senlor fellow MlllLarlzlng Space"
hLLp//wwwherlLageorg/ress/CommenLary/ed060703acfm
CpponenLs of Lhe new pollcy clamor LhaL a space arms race wlll resulL from even LhaL pollcy shlfL Chlna 8ussla
!apan and even Lhe Luropean unlon wlll surely be provoked lnLo followlng our lead 8uL |f we |eave the h|gh
ground open whats to stop others from se|z|ng |t? 1he crlLlcs answer anoLher un arms conLrol
LreaLy Arms conLrollers also argue LhaL spacebased weapons are lnefflclenL and expenslve relaLlve Lo
convenLlonal weapons All Lhese argumenLs are weak aL besL A new weapon sysLem wlll cause an arms race? lL
alnL necessarlly so Case ln polnL lor decades Lhe arms conLrollers ralled agalnsL balllsLlc mlsslle defense
warnlng LhaL lL would grossly desLablllze relaLlons wlLh Chlna and 8ussla and spark an arms race such as Lhe world
has never seen ?eL the 8ush adm|n|strat|ons |n|t|a| dep|oyment of m|ss||e defense hasnt caused
an arms race or made re|at|ons wlLh 8el[lng and Moscow any tougher Lhan Lhey already were It has
however |mproved our nat|ona| secur|ty by prov|d|ng the f|rst protect|on aga|nst ba|||st|c
m|ss||es ever Space weapons more expenslve Lhan convenLlonal weapons? Sure a saLelllLe cosLs more Lhan
a Lank And a Lank cosLs more Lhan a cavalry horse a rlfle more Lhan a rock 1he mosL expenslve weapon ls Lhe one
LhaL doesnL do Lhe [ob WhaL prlce are Lhe opponenLs of a more forwardleanlng space pollcy wllllng Lo puL on
uS naLlonal securlLy? As for the |dea of any treaty prevent|ng the dep|oyment of weapons |nto
space we|| te|| that to North korea and Iran naLlons undeLerred by Lhe llkes of Lhe nuclear non
rollferaLlon 1reaLy More Lhe currenL un (drafL) LreaLy Lo prohlblL Lhe weaponlzaLlon of space was lnLroduced
by Chlna and 8ussla Lhe Lwo naLlons mosL acLlve ln space Loday Cnly Lhe nalve would argue LhaL 8el[lng and
Moscow wouldnL deploy space weapons Loday lf Lhey could 1he LreaLy ls merely Lhelr dlplomaLlc gamblL Lo buy
Llme Lo develop Lhelr own programs 1haL work conLlnues apace LasL years enLagon reporL on Chlnese mlllLary
power says LhaL Chlna ln addlLlon Lo lmprovlng lLs saLelllLe lnLelllgence and reconnalssance capablllLy ls clearly
worklng on and plans Lo fleld ASA1s anLlsaLelllLe sysLems Space |s cr|t|ca| to Amer|can nat|ona|
secur|ty no naLlon relles more on space Lhan Lhe unlLed SLaLes and our poLenLlal enemles know Lhls
Ia||ure to protect our space |nfrastructure wou|d on|y |nv|te a ear| narbor |n space |eav|ng
us deaf dumb and bllnd and at war Ma|nta|n|ng Amer|cas m|||tary preem|nence ln space as on
land aL sea and ln Lhe alr |s a necess|ty
US Space Weapon|zat|on ood US$Ch|na War

Lffect|ve space weapon|zat|on key to prevent a war w|th Ch|na
Stone ChrlsLopher 8A unlverslLy of Mlssourl space and mlsslle offlcer Chlnese lnLenLlons
and Amerlcan preparedness" 8/13/07 hLLp//wwwLhespacerevlewcom/arLlcle/930/1
Cn !anuary 11 2007 Lhe Chlnese launched a mlsslle from a moblle LransporLererecLor launcher (1LL) armed wlLh a klneLlc klll
vehlcle and desLroyed Lhe lengyun1C weaLher saLelllLe 1hls saLelllLe was orblLlng Lhe earLh ln a low polar orblL 1hls
mlsslle was launched wlLh no advanced warnlng from Lhe Chlnese lorelgn MlnlsLry and Lhey
dldn'L respond Lo Lhe LesL unLll much laLer Accordlng Lo Alr lorce Space Command 700 spacecrafL ln low
LarLh orblL are now aL rlsk due Lo Lhe debrls cloud creaLed l would say ln addlLlon Lo Lhe debrls cloud all of our saLelllLes
and manned spacecrafL wlLhln range of Lhese weapons are endangered and Lhe Chlnese ASA1 lnLercepLor
program should be Laken serlously Whlle some people flnd Lhe lnLenLlons of Lhe Chlnese ASA1
LesL an enlgma" l flnd lL hard Lo undersLand whaL ls so dlfflculL for Lhem Lo undersLand
llndlng Lhese answers are easler Lhan some Lhlnk Any person who Lakes Lhe Llme Lo read Lhe
open source maLerlals alone can geL a flrm grasp of whaL Chlnese mlllLary leaders and
governmenL offlclals are advocaLlng Lhrough Lhelr ASA1 and space weapons programs Concerns abouL
Lhls ASA1 program are noL new 1he ueparLmenL of uefense has been publlcly sLaLlng slnce 1998 LhaL Lhe Chlnese were developlng Lhls capablllLy 1hese asserLlons
were unforLunaLely doubLed by many as ls hlsLorlcally Lhe case regardlng LhreaLs Lo Lhe securlLy of Lhe unlLed SLaLes 1hese weapons endanger
noL only lnLelllgence and mlllLary saLelllLes LhaL are crlLlcal Lo provldlng Lracklng and LargeLlng for
rapld reacLlon of our armed forces durlng a confllcL buL clvlllan neLworks as well 1hls as we wlll see laLer ls
preclsely Lhe reason Lhey have been developlng and LesLlng Lhese weapons Lo counLer Lhe
unlLed SLaLes mlllLary and as Chlnese Colonel ?uan Zelu sLaLed brlng Lhe opponenL Lo lLs knees"
Accordlng Lo some Lhe lnLenLlons and reasons for conducLlng Lhls LesL are eluslve 1hese
experLs" are ln a sLaLe of denlal lf anyone wanLed Lo know whaL Lhe !apanese were plannlng
Lo do ln Lhe 1930s all Lhey had Lo do was read Lhelr plans and Lralnlng documenLs 1hese plans were Lhen
belng execuLed across Lhe Aslaaclflc reglon Many ln Amerlca vlewed clalms abouL Lhe lncreaslng LhreaL of Lhe
!apanese mlllLary as preposLerous because Lhey were commlLLed Lo a peaceful rlse 1he Chlnese
are clalmlng a peaceful rlse as well coupled wlLh a large lncrease ln Lhelr armed forces and
weapons All LhaL ls needed now as Lhen ls Lo Lake a hard look aL Lhe pollcy and docLrlne of Lhe
eoples' LlberaLlon Army (LA) wlLh respecL Lo our naLlon's space capablllLles and armed forces and whaL Lhey plan Lo do whlch ls counLer our
space superlorlLy Admlral 1lmoLhy keaLlng commander of uS aclflc Command has sLaLed An anLlsaLelllLe weapon ls noL necessarlly a clear
lndlcaLlon of a deslre for peaceful uLlllzaLlon of space lL's a confuslng slgnal shall we say for a counLry who deslres ln Chlna's words a peaceful rlse" ln a
recenLly publlshed paper from SAlC's SLraLeglc AssessmenL CenLer Chlnese mlllLary documenLs
advocaLe Lhe coverL deploymenL and use of ground and spacebased ASA1 weaponry 1he
Chlnese sLaLe LhaL Lhey vlew our space sysLems as Lhe lynchpln" of Amerlcan power wlLh respecL Lo
C4lS8 (Command and ConLrol CommunlcaLlons lnLelllgence Survelllance and 8econnalssance) and Lo address lL one sLep furLher key Lo Lhe preclslon LargeLlng of
our weapons Chrls Lay one of Lhe paper's auLhors sLaLed 1he capablllLy Lo negaLe uS space based
C4lS8 ls very lmporLanL Lo Chlna lf Lhey are Lo deLer dlssuade and /or defeaL uS power
pro[ecLlon lnLo Lhelr reglon 1he ASA1 capablllLy probably flLs wlLh Lhelr concepL of 'assassln's mace'
My vlew ls LhaL Lhey wlll deploy" 1he Assassln's Mace" concepL ls a form of space warfare devlsed by Colonel
!la !unmlng ln hls book lnLegraLed Space Campalgns and ls sLudled aL Lhe varlous Chlnese war colleges lL ls a Lerm used for a
Lwophased approach where space combaL supporL ln space ls flrsL followed by Lhe coverL deploymenL of space
weapons and a llmlLed space deLerrence" Some examples of Lhe goals of Lhe Chlnese ln Lhls approach wlLh respecL Lo Lhe Amerlcan
space sysLems can be besL summed up by Colonel Ll uaguang's book Space Warfare uesLroy or Lemporarlly lncapaclLaLe all enemy
saLelllLes above our LerrlLory deploy land based and space based ASA1 weapons counLer uS mlsslle
defense sysLems malnLaln our good lnLernaLlonal lmage by coverL deploymenL space sLrlke weapons
concealed and launched only ln Llme of crlsls" Colonel uaguang's poslLlon ln hls book ls one of space conLrol uslng space weaponry equlpmenL and sysLems Lo
achleve Lhls conLrol and use space based asseLs Lo coordlnaLe all oLher subsequenL mlllLary operaLlons" Many of Lhese recommendaLlons and
plans have been predlcLed by space offlcers and analysLs for many years yeL have been dlsmlssed by
groups who are opposed Lo spacebased weapons or defenses l can agree wlLh Lhem LhaL ln an ldeal
world space should be a sancLuary from war however lL [usL lsn'L Lhe reallLy of Lhe slLuaLlon
1hroughouL hlsLory all areas LhaL have been explored or uLlllzed by manklnd (land sea alr) have
evenLually seen confllcL uue Lo Lhe dependency of Lhe WesLern worldespeclally Lhe unlLed SLaLeson spacebased asseLs an enemy
can crush" us by Laklng ouL our spacebased neLworks 1here are many quesLlons LhaL people are asklng wlLh
regards Lo Lhe reason Lhe Chlnese LesLed Lhls ASA1 and whaL Lo do ln response llrsL do we need more mlllLaryLomlllLary
dlalogue wlLh Lhe Chlnese? Whlle Lhls ls a good Lhlng noLe LhaL Chlnese ASA1 and some oLher space weapons experLs of Lhe LA
are offllmlLs Lo Lhe unlLed SLaLes wlLh our currenL mlllLary exchange program 1hey have never been a parL of Lhe
program and due Lo Lhe senslLlve naLure of Lhe Chlnese space program mlllLarlly l cannoL see
why Lhey would allow Lhose experLs Lo be added lf requesLed Would you wanL Lo Lell your
enemy whaL your lnLenLlons were wlLh respecL Lo achlevlng vlcLory over Lhem ln a fuLure
confllcL? l Lhlnk noL 1haL would glve Lhe enemy a chance Lo bulld counLermeasures and negaLe
Lhe mlllLary advanLage galned by such a program Second was Lhe Chlnese respondlng Lo Lhe 8ush AdmlnlsLraLlon's
new naLlonal Space ollcy? no Accordlng Lo a recenL arLlcle ln uefense news Lhe Chlnese had conducLed Lwo or more LesLs of Lhls weapon
prlor Lo Lhe lssuance of Lhe new pollcy Cur pollcy ls almed aL defense and exploraLlon noL conquesL 1hlrd should we Lake Lhls as
a hlnL Lo kowLow Lo Lhe Chlnese ablllLy Lo LhreaLen our space capablllLles? no resldenL 8ush ls correcL
caplLulaLlng Lo such arms agreemenLs such as revenLlon of an Arms 8ace ln CuLer Space (A8CS) or a space code of
conducL ln a poslLlon of weakness wouldn'L change Lhe slLuaLlon AfLer all Lhe weapon LesL
launched by Lhe Chlnese was groundbased noL spacebased and would geL around currenL and
many proposed space LreaLles lurLhermore Chlnese plans lndlcaLe a push Lo evenLually deploy
weapons ln space As Chrls Lay sLaLed l suspecL LhaL Lhey have plans (lncludlng developmenL and LesL plans) for more
sophlsLlcaLed and advanced ASA1 capablllLy LhaL could lnclude hlghorblL and/or CLC capable sysLems" Lven
Lhough space warfare hasn'L Lruly happened yeL ls lL really wlse Lo dlsmlss Lhe open source
documenLs from Lhe Chlnese mlllLary colleges and docLrlne cenLers [usL because we haven'L
seen mass aLLacks on our CS consLellaLlons or oLher spacecrafL? 1he experLs who have puL LogeLher sound
analysls of Lhe slLuaLlon don'L Lhlnk so and nelLher does Lhls auLhor 1he advocaLes of engaglng ln arms
conLrol agreemenLs due Lo Lhe LesL are pursulng a course of appeasemenL LhaL ln Lhe age of llghLspeed
lnformaLlon and shorLnoLlce weapons ls unwlse Many people who have commenLed on Lhe LesL conslder Lhe
weapons Lo be a prlmlLlve sysLem" Powever as uesmond 8all from Lhe AusLrallan naLlonal unlverslLy sLaLed lL ls Lhe sorL of capablllLy
avallable Lo any counLry wlLh a sLore of M88M/l88M (Medlum 8ange 8alllsLlc Mlsslles/lnLermedlaLe 8ange 8alllsLlc Mlsslles) or saLelllLe launch
vehlcles and a long range radar sysLem such as !apan lndla aklsLan lran and even norLh korea Amerlcan saLelllLes are
lucraLlve LargeLs ln Lhe Chlnese sLraLegy of asymmeLrlc warfare" 8egardless of Lhe prlmlLlve naLure of Lhe
Lechnology used Lhe facL LhaL Lhls klnd of Lechnology can be produced by Lhe Chlnese and exporLed
Lo naLlons such as norLh korea lran or even wellfunded global LerrorlsL groups makes lL clear LhaL
Lhls ls a LhreaL LhaL cannoL be wlshed away by hopes alone l feel LhaL we musL prepare aL leasL a
sound counLerspace sysLem ground based aL flrsL Lhen space based Lo counLer Lhls LhreaL 1he sysLem
could become layered as Lhe mlsslle defense program wlll become 1here are many ldeas ouL
LherepollLlcal dlplomaLlc and mlllLaryLo address Lhls slLuaLlon Powever one Lhlng ls cerLaln Lhe era of [usL
wrlLlng abouL counLerspace and space conLrol docLrlne ls over 1he Llme Lo acL ls now before
we lose cruclal space slLuaLlonal awareness and Lhe funcLlonallLy of our space sysLem mlllLary or
clvlllan ln a surprlse aLLack by a fuLure space aggressor

Lxt|nct|on
Stra|ts 1|mes no Cne Calns ln War Cver 1alwan" !une 23 Lexls
1he hlghlnLenslLy scenarlo posLulaLes a crosssLralL war escalaLlng lnLo a fullscale war beLween
Lhe uS and Chlna lf WashlngLon were Lo conclude LhaL spllLLlng Chlna would beLLer serve lLs naLlonal lnLeresLs Lhen a fullscale war becomes
unavoldable ConfllcL on such a scale would embroll oLher counLrles far and near and horror of horrors
ralse Lhe posslblllLy of a nuclear war 8el[lng has already Lold Lhe uS and !apan prlvaLely LhaL lL
conslders any counLry provldlng bases and loglsLlcs supporL Lo any uS forces aLLacklng Chlna as
belllgerenL parLles open Lo lLs reLallaLlon ln Lhe reglon Lhls means SouLh korea !apan Lhe hlllpplnes and Lo a lesser exLenL
Slngapore lf Chlna were Lo reLallaLe LasL Asla wlll be seL on flre And Lhe conflagraLlon may noL end
Lhere as opporLunlsLlc powers elsewhere may Lry Lo overLurn Lhe exlsLlng world order WlLh Lhe
uS dlsLracLed 8ussla may seek Lo redeflne Luropes pollLlcal landscape 1he balance of power ln
Lhe Mlddle LasL may be slmllarly upseL by Lhe llkes of lraq ln souLh Asla hosLlllLles beLween
lndla and aklsLan each armed wlLh lLs own nuclear arsenal could enLer a new and dangerous
phase Wlll a fullscale SlnouS war lead Lo a nuclear war? Accordlng Lo Ceneral MaLLhew 8ldgeway commander of Lhe uS LlghLh Army whlch foughL agalnsL
Lhe Chlnese ln Lhe korean War Lhe uS had aL Lhe Llme LhoughL of uslng nuclear weapons agalnsL Chlna Lo
save Lhe uS from mlllLary defeaL ln hls book 1he korean War a personal accounL of Lhe mlllLary and pollLlcal aspecLs of Lhe confllcL and lLs
lmpllcaLlons on fuLure uS forelgn pollcy Cen 8ldgeway sald LhaL uS was confronLed wlLh Lwo cholces ln korea Lruce or a broadened war whlch could have led Lo
Lhe use of nuclear weapons lf Lhe uS had Lo resorL Lo nuclear weaponry Lo defeaL Chlna long before Lhe laLLer acqulred a slmllar capablllLy Lhere ls llLLle hope of
wlnnlng a war agalnsL Chlna 30 years laLer shorL of uslng nuclear weapons 1he uS esLlmaLes LhaL Chlna possesses abouL 20 nuclear
warheads LhaL can desLroy ma[or Amerlcan clLles 8el[lng also seems prepared Lo go for Lhe
nuclear opLlon A Chlnese mlllLary offlcer dlsclosed recenLly LhaL 8el[lng was conslderlng a revlew of lLs non flrsL use prlnclple regardlng nuclear
weapons Ma[orCeneral an Zhangqlang presldenL of Lhe mlllLaryfunded lnsLlLuLe for SLraLeglc SLudles Lold a gaLherlng aL Lhe Woodrow Wllson lnLernaLlonal
CenLre for Scholars ln WashlngLon LhaL alLhough Lhe governmenL sLlll ablded by LhaL prlnclple Lhere were sLrong pressures from Lhe mlllLary Lo drop lL Pe sald
mlllLary leaders consldered Lhe use of nuclear weapons mandaLory lf Lhe counLry rlsked
dlsmembermenL as a resulL of forelgn lnLervenLlon Cen 8ldgeway sald LhaL should LhaL come Lo pass
we would see Lhe desLrucLlon of clvlllzaLlon 1here would be no vlcLors ln such a war Whlle Lhe
prospecL of a nuclear Armageddon over 1alwan mlghL seem lnconcelvable lL cannoL be ruled
ouL enLlrely for Chlna puLs soverelgnLy above everyLhlng else

US Space Weapon|zat|on ood Space ear| narbor

Ch|na w||| attack US space systems now on|y dep|oy|ng weapons so|ves for a space
war
1LLLIS Senlor AssoclaLe aL Lhe Carnegle LndowmenL for lnLernaLlonal eace Ashley Senlor AssoclaLe aL Lhe
Carnegle LndowmenL for lnLernaLlonal eace Senlor Advlser Lo Lhe undersecreLary of SLaLe for ollLlcal Affalrs
former Senlor ollcy AnalysL aL Lhe 8Anu CorporaLlon Chlnas MlllLary Space SLraLegy" Survlval 493 p4172
hLLp//wwwcarnegleendowmenLorg/flles/Lellls_chlna_space1pdf
llnally Lhe growlng Chlnese capablllLy for space warfare lmplles LhaL a fuLure confllcL ln Lhe
1alwan SLralL would enLall serlous deLerrence and crlsls lnsLablllLles lf such a clash were Lo
compel 8el[lng Lo aLLack uS space sysLems aL Lhe beglnnlng of a war Lhe very prospecL of such a
space earl Parbor94 could ln Lurn provoke Lhe unlLed SLaLes Lo conLemplaLe preempLlve
aLLacks or horlzonLal escalaLlon on Lhe Chlnese malnland Such ouLcomes would be parLlcularly
llkely ln a confllcL ln Lhe nexL decade before WashlngLon has Lhe opporLunlLy Lo lnvesL fully ln
redundanL space capablllLles Already uS SLraLeglc Command offlclals have publlcly slgnaled LhaL
convenLlonally armed 1rldenL submarlnelaunched balllsLlc mlsslles would be approprlaLe
weapons for execuLlng Lhe prompL sLrlkes LhaL mlghL become necessary ln such a conLlngency93 Such aLLacks even lf employlng
only convenLlonal warheads on space launch slLes sensor nodes and command and conLrol lnsLallaLlons on Lhe Chlnese malnland
could well be percelved as a precursor Lo an allouL war lL would be dlfflculL for all sldes Lo llmlL Lhe
lnLenslflcaLlon of such a confllcL even wlLhouL Lhe added compllcaLlons of accldenLs and furLher
mlspercepLlon96 *** 1he emergence of poLenL Chlnese counLerspace capablllLles makes uS mlllLary operaLlons ln Asla more rlsky Lhan
ever 1he LhreaL has noL arlsen due Lo a lack of a space armsconLrol reglme or because of Lhe 8ush admlnlsLraLlons dlslncllnaLlon Lo negoLlaLe
an accord LhaL bans Lhe weaponlzaLlon of space 8aLher lL ls rooLed enLlrely ln Chlnas requlremenL LhaL lL be able Lo defeaL Lhe unlLed SLaLes ln
a reglonal confllcL desplLe lLs convenLlonal lnferlorlLy 1hls sLraLeglc challenge has compelled 8el[lng Lo explolL every anLlaccess and baLLle
spacedenlal Lechnology poLenLlally avallable 1he LhreaL posed by Lhls Chlnese efforL cannoL be neuLrallzed by armsconLrol agreemenLs even
Lhough all counLrles sLand Lo proflL from Lhe absence of LhreaLs Lo Lhelr asseLs ln space 1here ls a LempLaLlon especlally ln Lhe unlLed SLaLes Lo
vlew Chlnas counLerspace programs ln morallsLlc Lerms 1hls approach ls undeslrable and besL avolded 8el[lngs deslre Lo defeaL Lhe sLronger
by asymmeLrlc means ls noL a reflecLlon of lLs devlousness nor provoked by mendaclLy on Lhe parL of Lhe unlLed SLaLes or Lhe 8ush
admlnlsLraLlon lL ls grounded ln Lhe ob[ecLlve condlLlons LhaL deflne Lhe relaLlonshlp beLween Lhe Lwo counLrles compeLlng pollLlcal goals
llkely Lo perslsL wheLher or noL Lhe 1alwan confllcL ls resolved ln such clrcumsLances Lhe unlLed SLaLes should seek as Lhe 8ush
admlnlsLraLlons own naLlonal Space ollcy declares Lo proLecL Lhe use of ouLer space by all naLlons for peaceful
purposes and for Lhe beneflL of all humanlLy 8uL lf Lhls fundamenLal goal ls LhreaLened by Chlnese counLer
space acLlvlLles almed aL Amerlcan space asseLs Lhe unlLed SLaLes has no cholce buL Lo run an
offencedefense arms race and wln



US Space Weapon|zat|on ood negemony

Space M|||tar|zat|on key to hegemomy prov|des needed |nformat|on and access
Do|man 6 rofessor of ComparaLlve MlllLary SLudles aL Lhe uS Alr lorce's School of Advanced Alr and Space SLudles (SAASS) (LvereLL C
A uebaLe AbouL Weapons ln Space lor uS MlllLary 1ransformaLlon and Weapons ln Space" SAlS 8evlew WlnLerSprlng
hLLp//muse[huedu/[ournals/sals_revlew/v026/261dolmanhLml)
1he Lremendous growLh ln space rellance from ueserL SLorm Lo lraql lreedom ls evldenL ln Lhe
raw numbers 1he use of operaLlonal saLelllLe communlcaLlons lncreased fourfold desplLe
belng used Lo supporL a much smaller force (fewer Lhan 200000 personnel compared wlLh
more Lhan 300000) new operaLlonal concepLs such as reach back (lnLelllgence analysLs ln Lhe unlLed SLaLes sendlng lnformaLlon
dlrecLly Lo fronLllne unlLs) and reach forward (reardeployed commanders able Lo dlrecL baLLlefleld operaLlons ln real Llme) reconflgured Lhe
LacLlcal concepL of war 1he value of redaLor and Clobal Pawk unmanned Aerlal vehlcles (uAvs) compleLely
rellanL on saLelllLe communlcaLlons and navlgaLlon for Lhelr operaLlon was conflrmed SaLelllLe
supporL also allowed Speclal lorces unlLs Lo range across lraq ln exLremely dlsrupLlve lndependenL operaLlons pracLlcally unfeLLered ln Lhelr
sllenL movemenLs 8uL Lhe paramounL effecL of spaceenabled warfare was ln Lhe area of combaL
efflclency Space asseLs allowed allweaLher daynlghL preclslon munlLlons Lo provlde Lhe bulk
of Amerlcas sLrlklng power ALLacks from sLandoff plaLforms lncludlng vleLnamera 832s allowed maxlmum LargeL devasLaLlon
wlLh exLraordlnarlly low casualLy raLes and collaLeral damage ln ueserL SLorm only 8 percenL of munlLlons used
were preclslongulded none of whlch were CScapable 8y lraql lreedom nearly 70 percenL
were preclslongulded more Lhan half from CS saLelllLes3 ln ueserL SLorm fewer Lhan 3
percenL of alrcrafL were CSequlpped 8y lraql lreedom all were uurlng ueserL SLorm CS proved so
valuable Lo Lhe army LhaL lL procured and rushed lnLo LheaLer more Lhan 4300 commerclal recelvers Lo augmenL Lhe meager 800 mlllLaryband
ones lL could deploy from sLockplles an average of one per company (abouL 200 personnel) 8y lraql lreedom each army squad (610 soldlers)
had aL leasL one mlllLary CS recelver Clven Lhe demonsLraLed uLlllLy of and rellance upon mlllLary asseLs ln
space Lhere ls no quesLlon Lhe unlLed SLaLes musL guaranLee space access lf lL ls Lo be
successful ln fuLure confllcLs lLs mlllLary has sLepped well over Lhe Lhreshold of a new way of war lL ls slmply noL
posslble Lo go back Lo Lhe vlolenLly spasmodlc mode of combaL Lyplcal of prespace
lnLervenLlons 1he unlLed SLaLes ls now hlghly dlscrlmlnaLlng ln Lhe pro[ecLlon of vlolence and parslmonlous ln Lhe lnLended breadLh of
lLs desLrucLlon lor Lhe poslLlve process of LransformaLlon Lo conLlnue however space weapons
musL enLer Lhe combaL lnvenLory of Lhe unlLed SLaLesLnd age 163

Space M|||tar|zat|on |s key heg
Sm|th ' researcher aL Lhe School of Advanced Alr ower SLudles
Mv SMl1P 1Ln 8CCSl1lCnS 8LCA8ulnC SACLCWL8 hLLp//wwwauafmll/au/awc/awcgaLe/saas/smlLhpdf
Cn one slde are Lhose who argue LhaL Lhe unlLed SLaLes needs Lo develop a mlllLary capablllLy Lo proLecL lLs
saLelllLes from aLLack and Lo deny adversarles access Lo Lhe beneflLs of saLelllLe producLs and
servlces Cn Lhe oLher slde are Lhose who conLend LhaL weapons should never be employed ln space 1hey urge lnsLead LhaL arms conLrol
and oLher cooperaLlve measures are Lhe besL means Lo proLecL Amerlcan equlLles ln space as well as Lo prevenL space from becomlng an arena
for armed confllcL
201
8oLh sldes of Lhe debaLe have valld concerns roponenLs of weaponlzaLlon clalm Lhe uS wlll
enhance lLs naLlonal power by weaponlzlng space 1hey are qulck Lo polnL ouL LhaL Lhere ls no blankeL prohlblLlon ln
lnLernaLlonal law on placlng or uslng weapons ln space applylng force from space Lo LarLh or conducLlng mlllLary operaLlons ln and Lhrough
space

Pays and Mueller descrlbe Lhls slde of Lhe debaLe llke Lhls lf Lhe unlLed SLaLes moves expedlLlously Lo Lake
advanLage of lLs exlsLlng leadershlp ln space Lechnology and esLabllsh an unassallable domlnance of
orblLal space lLs poslLlon as Lhe preemlnenL world power wlll be enhanced and perpeLuaLed lf on
Lhe oLher hand lL falls Lo selze Lhe opporLunlLy Lo esLabllsh unassallable superlorlLy ln space lLs
world leadershlp wlll be LhreaLened by more vlslonary rlvalsPe who conLrols space wlll conLrol Lhe
world or aL leasL he who doesn'L won'L and Lhus Lhe more Lhe unlLed SLaLes lnvesLs ln developlng lLs
spacepower Lhe more powerful and secure lL wlll be


Space capab|||t|es are the on|y way of ma|nta|n|ng heg have been used to so|ve past
wars
Do|man LvereLL A new Amerlcan Way of War lor eparllamenL conference on Space SecurlLy hLLp//wwwe
parlneL/pages/space_hearlng_lmages/Confaper20uolman20uS20MlllLary201ransform2020Spacepdf
1he unlLed SLaLes has embarked on a revoluLlonary mlllLary LransformaLlon deslgned Lo exLend lLs
domlnance ln mlllLary engagemenLs Space capablllLles are Lhe lynchpln of Lhls LransformaLlon enabllng
a level of preclslon sLealLh command and conLrol lnLelllgence gaLherlng speed maneuverablllLy
flexlblllLy and leLhallLy hereLofore unknown 1hls LwenLyflrsL cenLury way of war promlses Lo glve Lhe
unlLed SLaLes a capaclLy Lo use force Lo lnfluence evenLs around Lhe world ln a Llmely effecLlve and
susLalnable manner And Lhls ls a good Lhlng a Lrue LransformaLlon from confllcLs pasL 1haL Lhe process
of LransformaLlon was well underway became evldenL ln 1991 when Lhe world's fourLh largesL mlllLary
was defeaLed ln [usL Len days of ground combaL unfaLhomably compllcaLed baLLle equlpmenL sleek new alrcrafL and
promlslng new mlsslle lnLercepLors publlcly debuLed ArLhur C Clarke wenL so far as Lo dub CperaLlon uLSL81 S1C8M (CuS) Lhe
world's flrsL space war as none of Lhe accompllshmenLs of Amerlca's new look mlllLary would have been
posslble wlLhouL supporL from space 1welve years laLer ln CperaLlon l8ACl l8LLuCM (Cll) asserLlons
as Lo Lhe cenLral role of space power could no longer be denled Amerlca's mlllLary had LranslLloned
from space supporLed Lo a fully space enabled force wlLh asLonlshlngly poslLlve resulLs lndeed mosL of Lhe
naLlon's currenL space power funcLlons were successfully exerclsed ln Cll lncludlng space llfL command and conLrol lnLelllgence lncludlng
rapld baLLle damage assessmenL Llmlng and navlgaLlon and meLeorologlcal supporL
US Space M|| |s key to ma|nta|n heg another country m|||tar|z|ng wou|d k||| |t
Do|man 6 rofessor of ComparaLlve MlllLary SLudles aL Lhe uS Alr lorce's School of Advanced Alr and Space SLudles (SAASS) (LvereLL C
A uebaLe AbouL Weapons ln Space lor uS MlllLary 1ransformaLlon and Weapons ln Space" SAlS 8evlew WlnLerSprlng
hLLp//muse[huedu/[ournals/sals_revlew/v026/261dolmanhLml)
1hls reasonlng does noL dlspuLe Lhe facL LhaL uS deploymenL of weapons ln ouLer space would represenL Lhe
addlLlon of a poLenL new mlllLary capaclLy one LhaL would asslsL ln exLendlng Lhe currenL
perlod of Amerlcan hegemony well lnLo Lhe fuLure Clearly Lhls would be LhreaLenlng and Amerlca musL expecL severe
condemnaLlon and lncreased compeLlLlon ln perlpheral areas 8uL such an ouLcome ls less LhreaLenlng Lhan any oLher
sLaLe dolng so lacemenL of weapons ln space by Lhe unlLed SLaLes would be percelved correcLly as an aLLempL aL conLlnulng Amerlcan
hegemony AlLhough Lnd age 169 Lhere ls obvlous opposlLlon Lo Lhe currenL lnLernaLlonal balance of
power Lhe ma[orlLy of sLaLes seem Lo regard lL as aL leasL Lolerable A conLlnuaLlon of Lhe sLaLus
quo ls Lhus mlnlmally accepLable even Lo sLaLes worklng Loward lLs demlse As long as Lhe unlLed SLaLes
does noL employ lLs power arblLrarlly Lhe slLuaLlon would be bearable lnlLlally and grudglngly accepLed over Llme Cn Lhe oLher hand
an aLLempL by any oLher sLaLe Lo domlnaLe space would be parL of an efforL Lo break Lhe land
seaalr domlnance of Lhe unlLed SLaLes ln preparaLlon for a new lnLernaLlonal order wlLh Lhe
weaponlzlng sLaLe aL Lhe Lop Such an acLlon would challenge Lhe sLaLus quo raLher Lhan seek Lo perpeLuaLe lL 1hls would be
dlsconcerLlng Lo naLlons LhaL accepL Lhe currenL lnLernaLlonal orderlncludlng Lhe venerable
lnsLlLuLlons of Lrade flnance and law LhaL operaLe wlLhln lLand lnLolerable Lo Lhe unlLed
SLaLes As leader of Lhe currenL sysLem Lhe unlLed SLaLes could do no less Lhan engage ln a
perhaps rulnous space arms race save graclously declde Lo sLep aslde


Space |s key to negemony
Le|e 2 a 8esearch fellow aL luSA
A[ey Lele lndlan uefense 8evlew 1rends ln Space WeaponlzaLlon hLLp//wwwlndlandefencerevlewcom/defence
lndusLry/1rendslnSpaceWeaponlsaLlonhLml
All Lhe Lhree lncldenLs narraLed above lndlcaLe Lhe lmporLance of space domlnance for ma[or powers lor
lasL couple of decades space ls belng vlewed as an area of greaL sLraLeglc advanLage 1he 1991 Culf War
demonsLraLed among oLher Lhlngs whaL can happen when a naLlon LhaL does noL en[oy Lhe beneflLs
of space explolLaLlon wages war agalnsL one LhaL does ln LhaL confllcL Lhe uS en[oyed a vlrLual
monopoly on access Lo spacebased survelllance communlcaLlons and navlgaLlon supporL 1he same saLelllLes could offer lnformaLlon on
mlllLary LargeLs Loo Second for many years varlous manual mechanlcal and elecLronlc meLhods are belng used for Lhe purposes of mlllLary
survelllance communlcaLlons and navlgaLlon and saLelllLes ls [usL one of Lhe new meLhods Also usage of saLelllLe Lechnology for Lhese
purposes does noL vlolaLe any lnLernaLlonal legal reglme ln shorL usage of saLelllLe Lechnology for mlllLary purposes
per say has no resLrlcLlons Such usage of saLelllLe Lechnology ls known as 'mlllLarlzaLlon of
space' 1hls experlmenLal launch carrled ouL by Lhe uS ls noL Lhe aLLempL Lo weaponlse Lhe space by any sLaLe ln facL lL was Chlna whlch ls
now crlLlclzlng Lhe uS was lnsLrumenLal ln ralslng Lhe anLe ln regards Lo securlLy of space asseLs/saLelllLes ln Lhe recenL pasL Cn !anuary 11
2007 Chlna shocked Lhe enLlre world by desLroylng lLs own aglng weaLher saLelllLe 1hey had launched
a mlsslle Lo desLroy Lhls saLelllLe by uslng a klneLlc klll vehlcle (kkv) warhead 1hls desLrucLlon of saLelllLe had lead Lo Lhe
creaLlon of huge debrls ln Lhe space wlLh a poLenLlal Lo harm oLher saLelllLes orblLlng ln Lhe space 1hls
LesL by Chlna was a clear deplcLlon of lLs lnLenL Lo prove Lo Lhe world abouL lLs ASA1 (anLlsaLelllLe)
capaclLy ln Lhe pasL durlng mldelghLles boLh uS and 8ussla (ersLwhlle uSS8) had demonsLraLed Lhls capaclLy
however Lhey had sLopped LesLlng because of Lhe debrls lssue AL Lhe backdrop of above lL could be
argued LhaL space warfare ls llkely Lo become a reallLy for Lhe fuLure lL would presenL boLh Lhe mlllLary and
Lhe dlplomacy wlLh a new Lool Lo play power pollLlcs lL ls expecLed LhaL Lhe flrsL counLry Lo puL weapons ln
space may have an advanLage ln Lhls fleld SLaLes are llkely Lo draw lessons from Lhe nuclear arms race phllosophy ln
yesLeryears whlch sLarLed wlLh a vlew Lo malnLaln a monopoly of Lhls Lype of weapon Space weapons may even emerge as an alLernaLlve Lo
exlsLlng nuclear deLerrence mechanlsm wlLhln few years AL Lhe beglnnlng of Lhls 21sL cenLury Lhe world ls wlLnesslng Lhe
exlsLence of unlfled baLLlefleld consLlLuLlng of Lhe flve LheaLers of combaL namely land sea alr cyber and space lL ls
expecLed LhaL ma[or porLlon of Lhe laLLer half of Lhe 21sL cenLury securlLy makeup would be domlnaLed by
space

Space M|||tar|zat|on Cruc|a|
CALLAPA 2000 Wllllam SACL WLACnlZA1lCn 8eporL 2000 hLLp//wwwdLlcmll/cgl
bln/CeL18uoc?AuAuA433730LocaLlonu2docCeL18uocpdf
1he unlLed SLaLes currenLly en[oys an overwhelmlng advanLage ln spacebased survelllance
communlcaLlons and navlgaLlon alds roLecLlng Lhese asseLs and malnLalnlng uS domlnance
ln space ls poLenLlally crlLlcal Lo Lhe defense of uS naLlonal lnLeresLs As uS naLlonal space
pollcy lndlcaLes leaders aL Lhe hlghesL levels of governmenL recognlze Lhls poLenLlal
vulnerablllLy 1he pollcy expllclLly sLaLes LhaL naLlonal securlLy space acLlvlLles musL deLer warn
and lf necessary defend agalnsL enemy aLLack lL also sLaLes uCu shall malnLaln Lhe capablllLy
Lo execuLe Lhe mlsslon areas of space conLrol and force appllcaLlon" llnally currenL pollcy
sLlpulaLes LhaL Lhe unlLed SLaLes wlll develop operaLe and malnLaln space conLrol capablllLles
Lo ensure freedom of acLlon ln space and lf dlrecLed deny such freedom of acLlon Lo
adversarles" 1




A2 Se|f fu|f||||ng prophency


Weapon|zat|on |s not a se|ffu|f||||ng prophecy
Do|man 6 rofessor of ComparaLlve MlllLary SLudles aL Lhe uS Alr lorce's School of Advanced Alr and Space SLudles (SAASS) (LvereLL C
A uebaLe AbouL Weapons ln Space lor uS MlllLary 1ransformaLlon and Weapons ln Space" SAlS 8evlew WlnLerSprlng
hLLp//muse[huedu/[ournals/sals_revlew/v026/261dolmanhLml)
1o make Lhe case fully a brlef dlscusslon of operaLlonal warfare ls necessary l begln by deflnlng Lhe purpose of mlllLary
sLraLegy whlch ls Lo manlpulaLe Lhe conLexL of mlllLary confllcL ln order Lo maxlmlze Lhe advanLages of one's force sLrucLure"4 noLe LhaL lL
ls noL Lo wln wars nor ls Lhe purpose of mlllLary force Lo be used" for Lhls or LhaL effecL Such deflnlLlons are absurd lL
would mean LhaL aL any momenL an armed force ls noL acLlvely engaged ln baLLle lL ls noL
fulfllllng lLs purpose Any momenL LhaL a 81 ls noL dropplng bombs for example lL ls wasLed Wars so consLrued would be waged
solely for Lhe purpose of maklng war complylng wlLh ClausewlLz's underappreclaLed dlcLum LhaL war may have lLs own grammar buL noL lLs
own loglc"3 1he purpose of alrcrafL ls Lhus noL Lo bomb 1he purpose of space weapons wlll noL be
Lo lase or ln any oLher manner engage a LargeL 1hese are effecLs LhaL may supporL Lhe
sLraLeglsL's Lrue purposes as are freedom of movemenL ln and maxlmlzaLlon of supporL from
alr and space MlllLary force may noL be Lhe only means for obLalnlng such effecLs buL for Lhe mlllLary planner lL ls Lhe only means
avallable 1hls ls where crlLlclsm leveled aL mlllLary planners preparlng for Lhe use of space
weapons conLlnues Lo asLonlsh lL ls noL Lhe buslness of mlllLary sLraLeglsLs Lo dlcLaLe when and
where mlllLary means should be employed 1haL responslblllLy lles wlLh Lhe pollLlcal leadershlp
1he mlllLary planner's duLy ls Lo be prepared Lo use mlllLary means when and where lnsLrucLed
1hus Lhe Alr lorce's duLy ls Lo plan for and prepare Lo use Lhe mlllLary means ln lLs conLrol Lo
mosL effecLlvely accompllsh lLs asslgned Lasks wlLhln Lhe llmlLs placed upon lLlncludlng
efforLs Lo mlnlmlze collaLeral damage and loss of llfe 1herefore we should noL be dlscusslng
Lhe correcLness of Lhe mlllLary's plannlng Lo use weapons Lo engage ln operaLlons lL has been
asslgned lf we declde we do noL wanL weapons ln space Lhen Lhe mlllLary should noL be glven Lhe responslblllLy of proLecLlng our lnLeresLs
Lhere 1o do oLherwlse ls absurd lmaglne relylng on Lhe uS navy Lo guaranLee freedom of Lhe seas for
Amerlcan lnLeresLs buL orderlng lL Lo so wlLhouL Lhe use of warshlps or any oLher form of
marLlal forceeven Lhe laLenL LhreaL of such force ln reserve We would be asklng Lhe navy Lo guaranLee a vlLal naLlonal lnLeresL wlLhouL
employlng Lhe only means aL lLs dlsposal Lo do so 1hus Lhe navy ls equlpped wlLh Lhe mosL modern weaponry wlLh whlch lL Lralns lncessanLly
so LhaL lL may be avallable Lo perform Lhe funcLlons asslgned Lo lL

A2 Space M|| Arms kace
Cther states wou|dn't try to counterba|ance too cost|y
Do|man 6 rofessor of ComparaLlve MlllLary SLudles aL Lhe uS Alr lorce's School of Advanced Alr and Space SLudles (SAASS) (LvereLL C
A uebaLe AbouL Weapons ln Space lor uS MlllLary 1ransformaLlon and Weapons ln Space" SAlS 8evlew WlnLerSprlng
hLLp//muse[huedu/[ournals/sals_revlew/v026/261dolmanhLml)
ln such clrcumsLances Amerlca cerLalnly would respond evenLually Conversely lf Amerlca were Lo weaponlze space
Loday lL ls unllkely LhaL any oLher sLaLe or group of sLaLes would flnd lL raLlonal Lo counLer ln
klnd 1he enLry cosL Lo provlde Lhe necessary lnfrasLrucLure ls Loo hlghhundreds of bllllons of
dollars aL mlnlmum 1he years of lnvesLmenL needed Lo achleve a mlnlmal counLerforce
capablllLyessenLlally from scraLchwould provlde more Lhan ample Llme for Lhe unlLed SLaLes Lo
enLrench lLself ln space and readlly counLer prellmlnary efforLs Lo dlsplace lL 1he Lremendous
efforL ln Llme and resources would be worse Lhan wasLed MosL sLaLes lf noL all would opL noL Lo
counLer uS deploymenLs ln klnd 1hey mlghL oppose uS lnLeresLs wlLh asymmeLrlc balanclng dependlng on how aggresslvely
Amerlca uses lLs new power buL Lhe llkellhood of a hemorrhaglng arms race ln space should Lhe unlLed
SLaLes deploy weapons LhereaL leasL for Lhe nexL few yearsls exLremely remoLe

Lven |f other countr|es |n|t|a||y d|s||ke US space weapons they'|| come to support |ts
pac|fy|ng effects
Do|man 6 rofessor of ComparaLlve MlllLary SLudles aL Lhe uS Alr lorce's School of Advanced Alr and Space SLudles (SAASS) (LvereLL C
A uebaLe AbouL Weapons ln Space lor uS MlllLary 1ransformaLlon and Weapons ln Space" SAlS 8evlew WlnLerSprlng
hLLp//muse[huedu/[ournals/sals_revlew/v026/261dolmanhLml)
Moreover lf Lhe unlLed SLaLes were wllllng Lo deploy and use a mlllLary space force LhaL malnLalned effecLlve conLrol of space and dld so ln a
way LhaL was percelved as Lough nonarblLrary and efflclenL such an acLlon Lnd age 171 would serve Lo dlscourage compeLlng sLaLes from
fleldlng opposlng sysLems Should Lhe unlLed SLaLes use lLs advanLage Lo pollce Lhe heavens and allow
unhlndered peaceful use of space by any and all naLlons for economlc and sclenLlflc
developmenL over Llme lLs conLrol of lowLarLh orblL could be vlewed as a global asseL and a
publlc good ln much Lhe same way Lhe 8rlLlsh malnLalned conLrol of Lhe hlgh seas enforclng lnLernaLlonal norms of lnnocenL passage
and properLy rlghLs Lhe unlLed SLaLes could prepare ouLer space for a longoverdue bursL of economlc
expanslon 1here ls reasonable hlsLorlc supporL for Lhe noLlon LhaL Lhe mosL peaceful and
prosperous perlods ln modern hlsLory colnclde wlLh Lhe appearance of a sLrong llberal
hegemon Amerlca has been essenLlally unchallenged ln lLs naval domlnance over Lhe lasL 60
years and ln global alr supremacy for Lhe lasL 13 or more 1oday Lhere ls more lnLernaLlonal
commerce on Lhe oceans and ln Lhe alr Lhan ever Shlps and alrcrafL of all naLlons worry more
abouL runnlng lnLo bad weaLher Lhan abouL belng commandeered by a mlllLary vessel or seL
upon by plraLes Search and rescue ls a far more common Lask Lhan forced embargo and Lhe
Lransfer of humanlLarlan ald ls a regular mlsslon LesL one Lhlnk Lhls era of cooperaLlon ls predlcaLed on lnLenLlons
raLher Lhan mlllLary sLablllLy recall LhaL Lhe pollcy of open skles advocaLed by every presldenL slnce
Llsenhower dld noL Lake effecL unLll afLer Lhe fall of Lhe SovleL unlon and Lhe slngular rlse of
Amerlcan power Lo Lhe fore of lnLernaLlonal pollLlcs 1he legacy of Amerlcan mlllLary domlnaLlon of Lhe sea and alr
has been poslLlve and Lhe same should be expecLed for space
A2 Weapon|zat|on 8ad 1urns
Lxp|orat|on trades off w|th weapon|zat|on resource rea||ocat|on
uavld M L|v|ngston buslness consulLanL flnanclal advlsor and sLraLeglc planner 8/10/2
lrom LarLh Lo Mars A CooperaLlve lan"
hLLp//wwwspacefuLurecom/archlve/from_earLh_Lo_mars_a_cooperaLlve_planshLml
uesplLe Lhe problems assoclaLed wlLh puLLlng humans on Mars Lhere are also beneflLs Lo be reallzed from such a mlsslon 8oLh the pub||c
sector and Lhe prlvaLe secLor have un|que ways of benef|t|ng from a manned voyage to Mars ub||c
sector benef|ts |nc|ude lncreased employmenL the a||ocat|on of resources away from weapons to a
space pro[ect new Lechnologles sclenLlflc dlscoverles and hlgher Lax revenues Some of Lhe prlvaLesecLor beneflLs lnclude goodwlll and
a favorable publlc lmage as well as lncreased revenues and opporLunlLles for corporaLe growLh Plghpaylng [obs and employmenL
opporLunlLles wlll resulL from a Mars pro[ecL lor example malnLalnlng and flylng Lhe Space ShuLLle lnvolves flve nASA cenLers and
approxlmaLely 23000 hlghpaylng [obs A manned Mars mlsslon has equal or greaLer poLenLlal for slmllar employmenL opporLunlLles wlLhln
boLh Lhe publlc and prlvaLe secLors Another |mportant benef|t wou|d be the probab|e a||ocat|on of
resources away from m|||tary and weapons pro[ects to the Mars pro[ect kesources and ta|ent
w||| be ded|cated to des|gn|ng and deve|op|ng the Mars m|ss|on
Soft power so|ves the ||nk and |mpact exp|orat|on boosts US |nf|uence
|nternat|ona||y
1revor 8rown MSc S 8a[araLnam School of lnLernaLlonal SLudles nanyang 1echnologlcal
unlverslLy Sprlng 2 SofL ower and Space WeaponlzaLlon" Alr and Space ower !ournal
hLLp//wwwalrpowerauafmll/alrchronlcles/ap[/ap[09/spr09/brownhLml
Ana|ysts be||eve that the Un|ted States' determ|nat|on to ma|nta|n dom|nance |n m|||tary
space has caused |t to |ose ground |n commerclal space and space exp|orat|on 1hey ma|nta|n that the
Un|ted States |s g|v|ng up |ts c|v|||an space |eadersh|pan act|on that w||| have huge
strateglc lmpllcatlons. AlLhough Lhe uS publlc may be lndlfferenL Lo space commerce or sclenLlflc acLlvlLles
techno|og|ca| feats |n space rema|n someth|ng of a marve| to the broader wor|d ln 1969 Lhe world
was capLlvaLed by man's flrsL walk on Lhe moon 1he Apo||o program pa|d huge d|v|dends |n soft power at a
t|me when the Un|ted States found |tse|f due||ng w|th the Sov|ets to attract other nat|ons |nto
|ts |deo|og|ca| camp Un|ess the Un|ted States has a strong presence on the moon at the t|me
of Ch|na's manned |unar |and|ng scheduled for 2017 much of the wor|d w||| have the |mpress|on
that Ch|na has approached the Un|ted States |n terms of Lechnologlcal sophlsLlcaLlon and comprehenslve naLlonal
power32 lf recenL Lrends hold Lhls ls llkely Lo come aL a Llme when Lhe new and emerglng ldeologlcal confronLaLlon beLween 8el[lng and
WashlngLon wlll have lnLenslfled conslderably

A1 Space Conf||ct
Space weapons don't cause conf||ct h|stor|ca||y proven
SLeven Lambak|s senlor analysL aL Lhe naLlonal lnsLlLuLe for ubllc ollcy lebruary 2
Space Weapons 8efuLlng Lhe CrlLlcs" ollcy 8evlew pp4346
Cne such assumpt|on |s that m|||tary deve|opments over Lhe pasL 30 years have created a secur|ty
env|ronment |n wh|ch certa|n tact|ca| events or locallzed crlses run an unacceptab|y h|gh r|sk of
tr|gger|ng a genera| posslbly even nuclear war We are Lherefore more secure when we do noLhlng Lo upseL Lhe global mlllLary
balance especlally ln space where we sLaLlon key sLablllzlng asseLs et we have ||tt|e exper|ence |n rea||ty to
ground th|s free|y w|e|ded and rather academ|c assumpt|on 8y deflnlLlon anyLhlng LhaL causes lnsLablllLy ln
armed relaLlonshlps ls Lo be avolded 8uL wou|d shots |n space any more than shots on the ground be
that cause? When we |ook at what |nc|tes war h|story |nstructs us that what matter most are
the character and mot|vat|on of the states |nvo|ved a|ong w|th the genera| ba|ance of power
(le are we ln Lhe world of 1914 1943 or 2001?) I|uctuat|ons |n nat|ona| arsena|s be they based on earth or
|n space do not determ|ne but rather more accurate|y are a ref|ect|on of the course of
po||t|cs among nat|ons ln oLher words lL maLLers noL so much LhaL Lhere are nuclear weapons buL raLher wheLher Saddam Pusseln
or 1ony 8lalr conLrols Lhem and ln whaL securlLy conLexL 1he same may be sald for space weapons
If we w|n our heg |mpact |t so|ves your turns US hegemony prevents conf||ct from
break|ng out
SLeven Lambak|s senlor analysL aL Lhe naLlonal lnsLlLuLe for ubllc ollcy lebruary 2
Space Weapons 8efuLlng Lhe CrlLlcs" ollcy 8evlew p46
1he sway of ma[or powers h|stor|ca||y has regu|ated wor|d stab|||ty It fo||ows that |nf|uent|a|
countr|es that support the ru|e of |aw and Lhe rlghL of all sLaLes Lo use orblLs for nonaggresslve purposes wou|d he|p
ensure stab|||ty |n the age of sate|||tes 1he wor|d |s not more stab|e ln oLher words |f countr|es
||ke the Un|ted States a sLandardbearer for such ldeas do noth|ng Wash|ngtons deterrence and
engagement strateg|es wou|d assume new d|mens|ons w|th the added |nf|uence of space
weapons the presence of wh|ch cou|d he|p bo|ster peacemak|ng d|p|omacy and prevent
aggress|on on earth or |n space
No m|sca|cu|at|on or esca|at|on
SLeven Lambak|s senlor analysL aL Lhe naLlonal lnsLlLuLe for ubllc ollcy lebruary 2
Space Weapons 8efuLlng Lhe CrlLlcs" ollcy 8evlew p47
1o Lhese examples we may add a |ong ||st of tact|ca| b|unders grow|ng Cut of amb|guous
c|rcumstances and fau|ty |nte|||gence lncludlng Lhe uS bomblng ln 1999 of Lhe Chlnese Lmbassy ln 8elgrade durlng kosovo
operaLlons et though these trag|c act|ons occurred |n nearwar or t|nderbox s|tuat|ons they d|d
not esca|ate or exacerbate |oca| |nstab|||ty 1he wor|d a|so surv|ved USSov|et near
encounters durlng Lhe 1948 8erlln crlsls Lhe 1961 Cuban mlsslle crlsls and Lhe 1967 and 1973 Arablsraell wars uarded
d|p|omacy won the day |n a|| cases Why wou|d d|sputes affect|ng space be any d|fferent? ln
oLher words |t |s not at a|| se|fev|dent that a sudden |oss of a commun|cat|ons sate|||te for
examp|e wou|d prec|p|tate a w|dersca|e war or make warfare LermlnaLlon lmposslble ln Lhe conLexL of uS8usslan
relaLlons commun|cat|ons systems to command author|t|es and forces are redundant Urgent
commun|cat|ons may be routed through |and ||nes or the a|rwaves Cther means are a|so
ava||ab|e to perform spec|a| reconna|ssance m|ss|ons for mon|tor|ng a cr|s|s or comp||ance
w|th an arm|st|ce Whlle lmprovemenLs are needed our ab|||ty to know what transp|res |n space |s
grow|ng so we are not a|ways |n the dark

o||t|cs
ener|c o||t|cs
Increased m|ss||e defense spend|ng now by the nouse Cbama's not spend|ng enough
8y WlLLlAM MA11nLWS a wrlLer for uefense news ubllshed 13 May 2 1710 hLLp//wwwdefensenewscom/sLoryphp?l4623187
1he US nouse subcomm|ttee that oversees m|ss||e defense programs voted May 2 to boost
spend|ng on them |n 2 dlsregardlng Lhe presldenLs lebruary budgeL requesL and more recenL warnlngs from Lhe defense
secreLary LhaL defense spendlng musL be resLralned 1he nouse Armed Serv|ces strateg|c forces subcomm|ttee
added 5366 m||||on to next years defense budget to beef up ba|||st|c m|ss||e defense
programs 1haL lncludes $30 mllllon for Lhe alrborne laser a 13yearold program so plagued by problems and delays LhaL uefense
SecreLary 8oberL CaLes canceled mosL of Lhe program lasL year Cverall the subcomm|ttee |ed by kep Iames Langev|n
DkI voted to spend 53 b||||on on m|ss||e defense programs |n 2 res|dent 8arack
Cbama had requested 5 b||||on AmendmenLs seeklng sLlll more mlsslle defense spendlng lncreases are llkely when Lhe full
Armed Servlces CommlLLee marks up Lhe 2011 uefense AuLhorlzaLlon AcL on May 19 a Pouse sLaffer sald 1he exLra spendlng lgnores a May 8
warnlng from CaLes LhaL cuLs Lo weapons programs llkely wlll be necessary Lo keep from cuLLlng force sLrucLure Many of us argued
that a top ||ne |ncrease |n m|ss||e defense spend|ng was necessary sa|d kep M|chae|
1urner 8Chlo Among oLher Lhlngs there was b|part|san concern that the Cbama adm|n|strat|ons
proposed 583 b||||on defense budget d|d not adequate|y fund Aeg|s sh|pbased and 1nAAD
(theater h|gh a|t|tude area defense) m|ss||e |nterceptors he sa|d CneLhlrd of Lhe mlsslle defense lncrease
$1336 mllllon goes Lo Lhe Army Lo repalr upgrade and recerLlfy Army AC3 aLrloL Mlsslles and mlsslle launchers Langevln sald AC3s are
defenslve mlsslles deslgned Lo shooL down balllsLlc and crulse mlsslles AnoLher $63 mllllon ls Lo buy An/1?2 mlsslle defense radars and $30
mllllon ls Lo buy more Aegls SLandard Mlsslle3s 1hese are good government moves that shou|d reduce tota|
product|on costs |n the |ong run Langev|n sa|d Alrborne Laser 8oosL 1he exLra $30 mllllon for Lhe Alrborne Laser
would lncrease fundlng for LhaL program Lo $149 mllllon ln 2011 sald 1ravls Sharp a defense budgeL analysL for Lhe CenLer for a new Amerlcan
SecurlLy 8egun ln 1994 Lhe Alrborne Laser was supposed Lo be a 8oelng 747 able Lo shooL down enemy mlsslles as Lhey were belng launched
1he program consumed abouL $3 bllllon buL made halLlng progress unLll 2009 when CaLes reduced lL Lo a research program 1he
subcommlLLee pumped money lnLo anoLher canceled program 1SA1 Lhe LransformaLlonal saLelllLe program also kllled by CaLes lasL year
Lawmakers voted to spend 5 m||||on so that commun|cat|ons techno|og|es can cont|nue to
be deve|oped Cperat|ona||y kespons|ve Space a program to qu|ck|y |aunch sate|||tes
rece|ves an extra 54 m||||on to acce|erate deve|opment And Lhe Army recelves $312 mllllon for uefense
Advanced CS 8ecelvers anoLher unfunded requesL 1he subcommlLLee added $88 mllllon for a uSlsraell mlsslle defense program 1o help
pay for Lhese addons Lhe subcommlLLee cuL $300 mllllon from Lhe naLlonal olarorblLlng CperaLlonal LnvlronmenLal SaLelllLe SysLem whlch
ls behlnd schedule and subsLanLlally over budgeL As lL has for Lhe pasL Lhree years Lhe subcommlLLee denled a $409 mllllon requesL for Lhe
PlghlnLegrlLy Clobal oslLlonlng SysLem and lL cuL $30 mllllon from Lhe Space 8ased Survelllance SysLem whlch ls Lhree years behlnd schedule
accordlng Lo Lhe CovernmenL AccounLablllLy Cfflce Cverall unclasslfled space programs are cuL by $1822 mllllon 1haL leaves Lhem wlLh a
budgeL of $99 bllllon for 2011 Langevln sald
8MD and defense systems popu|ar huge b|part support
S|eff ul Senlor news AnalysL (MarLln uemocraLs lor Mlsslle uefense"
hLLp//wwwspacewarcom/reporLs/uemocraLs_lor_Mlsslle_uefense_999hLml
An oped lasL week ln Space news provlded slgnlflcanL supporL for our assessmenL LhaL Lhe new uemocraLconLrolled 110Lh Congress
wants to pra|se ba|||st|c m|ss||e defense not bury |t ln lL Llllson one of Lhe mosL lnfluenLlal proponenLs of Lhe 8ush
admlnlsLraLlons 8Mu program noL only comes Lo Lhe concluslon LhaL Democrats and kepub||cans |n Congress now
agree on a|most a|| fund|ng |ssues assoc|ated w|th 8MD he also polnLed ouL LhaL afLer decades of opposlng or
appearlng Lo oppose any cosLly and amblLlous uS balllsLlc mlsslle defense program on prlnclple Lhe Democrats have now
embraced |t 1he arLlcle by 8lkl Llllson presldenL and founder of Lhe Mlsslle uefense Advocacy Alllance was orlglnally publlshed on !une
3 ln Space news At a t|me of grow|ng |nternat|ona| tens|ons espec|a||y w|th kuss|a and Ch|na th|s
robs the kepub||cans of a monopo|y on an |ncreas|ng|y popu|ar |ssue 1hroughout the past
2 years m|ss||e defense has been perce|ved and cons|dered a kepub||can p|atform pos|t|on
Now the Democrat|c ma[or|ty |n Congress |s cha||eng|ng th|s percept|on and rea||ty Llllson wroLe
Llllson acknowledged LhaL Lhe ma[orlLy uemocraLs ln Lhe uS Pouse of 8epresenLaLlves had [usL approved a defense approprlaLlons blll for
flscal year 2008 LhaL lncluded more Lhan $10 bllllon ln fundlng for 8Mu programs More remarkable was Lhe overall Pouse voLe of 397 Lo 27 Lo
add an addlLlonal $200 mllllon for mlsslle defense above Lhe resldenL Ceorge W 8ushs 2008 budgeL requesL he wroLe Llllson noLed LhaL Lhe
Pouse Lherefore approved no less Lhan 96 percenL of whaL Lhe 8ush admlnlsLraLlon had asked for Lo conLlnue fundlng 8Mu And Lhe requesL
looks llkely Lo be passed lnLo law wlLh llLLle lf any aLLempL Lo scale lL back Cn May 24 Lhe SenaLe Armed Servlces CommlLLee whlch ls now
also conLrolled by uemocraLs approved a very slmllar approprlaLlons blll for $101 bllllon ln 8Mu fundlng And as Llllson polnLed ouL Lhe
SenaLe commlLLees markup lncluded an addlLlonal $73 mllllon above Lhe admlnlsLraLlon requesL Lo come ln aL 98 percenL of Lhe presldenLs
requesL for mlsslle defense Llllson [usLly concluded 1hls ls qulLe a sLaLemenL of supporL for mlsslle defense by Lhe uemocraLconLrolled
Pouse and SenaLe Most notab|y the Democrat|c ma[or|ty has fu||y funded a|| of the current and
soon to be dep|oyed US systems (1herefore) a b|part|san response to ba|||st|c m|ss||e
threats as we|| as support for our m|||tarys m|ss||e defense c|ear|y has become a matter of
fact and not a consequence of part|san po||t|cs 1here are many reasons for Lhe dramaLlc shlfL ln Lhe uemocraLs
congresslonal poslLlon on 8Mu LhaL Llllson noLes Democrat|c congressmen from states where |ucrat|ve and
[obr|ch contracts for 8MD deve|opment are p|aced espec|a||y Ca||forn|a can be expected to
be a|ert to these concerns lL ls no secreL LhaL Pouse Speaker nancy elosl and 8ep Lllen 1auscher chalr of Lhe SLraLeglc lorces
SubcommlLLee of Lhe Pouse Armed Servlces CommlLLee are boLh Callfornla uemocraLs WlLhln days of 8oelng Lockheed MarLln and norLhrop
Crumman Lhe Lhree maln conLracLors for Lhe Alrborne Laser announclng Lhey were [olnlng LogeLher Lo argue agalnsL fundlng for furLher A8L
research and developmenL lncludlng a cruclal upcomlng LesL belng cuL from Lhe 2008 defense approprlaLlons leglslaLlon 1auscher had
resLored lL ln a revlslon of an earller markup 1he b|g defense contractors st||| carry powerfu| c|out espec|a||y
when they are work|ng together and the Democrats on Cap|to| n||| know |t 1he terror
attacks of Sept 2 and the ongo|ng war |n Iraq have brought home to Amer|cans that
the wor|d rema|ns a dangerous p|ace and |t |s gett|ng more so a|| the t|me Also afLer 12 years ln Lhe
pollLlcal wllderness congresslonal uemocraLs now hold real power and Lherefore real responslblllLy agaln ln runnlng boLh chambers of Lhe uS
Congress 1h|s has affected the|r chang|ng percept|ons of 8MD as well 8uL mosL of all Lhough no congresslonal
uemocraL wlll undersLandably every publlcly admlL lL Lhe blggesL reason for Lhelr change on 8Mu ls because of resldenL 8ush Pls hard
charglng deLermlnaLlon on developlng Lhe program has broughL real resulLs
W||| be |ncreased spend|ng on m|ss||e defense costs |n future
by Aaron kupar ul CorrespondenL
WashlngLon (ul) nov 09 26 uS
8alllsLlc Mlsslle uefense Spendlng May
uouble"
US ana|ysts have determ|ned that annua| entagon m|ss||e defense costs w||| near|y doub|e
by 26 1he analysLs were from Lhe CenLer for uefense lnformaLlon a llberalleanlng WashlngLon Lhlnk Lank 1he|r conc|us|ons
were based on a study of a Congress|ona| 8udget Cff|ce report re|eased |ast month
Current|y annua| US Department of of Defense m|ss||e defense expend|tures are about 5
b||||on CDIs ana|ys|s of the C8C report determ|ned that annua| costs are expected to r|se to
58 b||||on by 26 h|||p Coy|e a CDI sen|or adv|ser and d|rector of operat|ona| test and
eva|uat|on for the Cff|ce of the Secretary of Defense from 42 to|d Un|ted ress
Internat|ona| that costs for m|ss||e defense m|ght even keep go|ng up (beyond Lhe C8C
est|mates)
hLLp//wwwspacewarcom/reporLs/uS_8alllsLlc_Mlsslle_uefense_Spendlng_May_uouble_999hLml
|an opu|ar
|an's popu|ar pub||c support and fear of Ch|na
fa|tzgraff et a| (8oberL hu and rofessor of lnL SecurlLy SLudles [ 1ufLs and resldenL [ Lhe llA Wllllam Cleave hu and rofessor [
Mlssourl SLaLe llan 8erman v for ollcy [ Lhe Amerlcan lorelgn ollcy Councll klron Sklnner hu and lellow [ Lhe Poover lnsLlLuLlon
Penry Cooper Chalrman [ Plgh lronLler P 8aker Sprlng 8esearch lellow [ PerlLage !acquelyn uavls hu and LxecuLlve v [ llA Mead
1readwell Senlor lellow [ lnsLlLuLe of Lhe norLh uanlel llne hu and 8esearch AssoclaLe [ Ml1 8oberL 1urner rofessor aL unlverslLy of
vlrglnla 8oberL !asLrow hu and Chalrman of Lhe 8oard [ Lhe Marshall lnsLlLuLe !u Wllllams vlce Admlral of Lhe uSn 1homas karako
ulrecLor of rograms [ ClaremonL lnsLlLuLe aul Weyrlch CLC [ Lhe lree Congress 8esearch and LducaLlon loundaLlon 8rlan kennedy
resldenL [ ClaremonL lnsLlLuLe Lowell Wood hu and vlslLlng lellow [ Poover !eff kueLer resldenL [ Lhe Marshall lnsLlLuLe Lrlc LlchL
Senlor AnalysL [ Lhe lree Congress 8esearch and LducaLlon loundaLlon 8 uanlel McMlchael SecreLary [ Lhe CarLhage loundaLlon and Lhe
Sarah Scalfe loundaLlon 8eporL of Lhe lndependenL Worklng Croup on Mlsslle uefense Lhe Space 8elaLlonshlp Lhe 1wenLyllrsL CenLury"
repared by Lhe lnsLlLuLe for lorelgn ollcy Analysls" hLLps//wwwclaremonLorg/reposlLory/docLlb/200901291_lwg2009pdf
Desp|te the po||t|ca| obstac|es there |s a des|re w|th|n the genera| Amer|can pub||c to
ma|nta|n space super|or|ty |nc|ud|ng the dep|oyment of spacebased m|ss||e defense If the
Un|ted States |s perce|ved as no |onger dom|nant |n space many peop|e w||| want to know
how and why such dom|nance was |ost and what needs to be done to restore |t 8y Lhe same Loken
Lhere ls a broad buL mlsLaken bellef LhaL Lhe unlLed SLaLes ls already defended by mlsslle defense (whlch underscores Lhe publlc's supporL for
mlsslle defenses) Moreover as noLed above Chlna's lncreaslngly prollflc space program could offer anoLher caLalysL Lo bulldlng an Amerlcan
consensus on mlsslle defense 1he fact that severa| other nat|ons are man|fest|y |nterested |n space and
pursu|ng the|r own programs prov|des yet another |mportant cons|derat|on for press|ng
forward w|th a robust US m|ss||e defense program that prom|nent|y |nc|udes space
C|d ||nks don't app|y Congress recent|y changed the|r op|n|on and |oves 8MD
Spr|ng (8aker PerlLage loundaLlon ls Congress 1urnlng Lhe Corner on Mlsslle uefense?" May 14Lh
hLLp//blogherlLageorg/2010/03/14/lscongressLurnlngLhecorneronmlsslledefense/
Congress may be turn|ng the corner on m|ss||e defense It |s reported that the nouse
Subcomm|ttee on SLraLeglc lorces added 5366 m||||on to the Cbama Adm|n|strat|on's |nadequate
5 b||||on request for the overa|| m|ss||e defense program |n f|sca| year 2 1h|s |s a
s|gn|f|cant departure from |ast year where Congress wlLh Lhe noLable excepLlon of Lhe vallanL efforL by Pouse
8epubllcans Lo oppose lL acqu|esced |n the Cbama Adm|n|strat|on's 56 b||||on reduct|on |n the
broader program 1he |ncrease |n fund|ng |s to go to the fo||ow|ng components of the broader
m|ss||e defense program 1) Lhe aLrloL AC3 lnLercepLor 2) Lhe An/1?2 mlsslle defense radar 4) the SM3
Standard M|ss||e3 |nterceptors 3) Lhe Alrborne Laser and 6) Lhe uSlsraell mlsslle defense cooperaLlon program 1he
lncreases ln large measure were pald for by reducLlons ln fundlng for a number of saLelllLe programs
|an's 8|part 8MD |s seen as key to nat|ona| secur|ty
A (Congress Mulls lundlng for Mlsslle uefense" 44 hLLp//wwwfoxnewscom/sLory/0293313233900hLml
Congress |s we|gh|ng how much to |nvest |n the f|edg||ng ba|||st|c m|ss||e defense system
wh|ch has suffered setbacks and whose cosL could easlly Lop Lhe $130 bllllon parLlal prlce Lag Lhe 8ush admlnlsLraLlon has
esLlmaLed 1he sysLem |s a po||t|ca| hot button because aL a Llme of budgeL deflclL pressures lLs Lhe
mosL expenslve defense research and developmenL program resldenL 8ush wanLs lawmakers Lo approve $9
bllllon for Lhe sysLem ln Lhe 2006 budgeL year $1 bllllon less Lhan Lhe admlnlsLraLlon prevlously planned 1he program |s meant
to protect the country by |aunch|ng |nterceptors from |and or sea to shoot down m|ss||es f|red
from overseas 1he sysLem ls a subsLanLlally downscaled verslon of resldenL 8eagans efforL ln Lhe mld1980s whlch crlLlcs dubbed
SLar Wars for lLs fuLurlsLlc weaponry lLs flrsL elghL lnLercepLors have been lnsLalled ln underground bunkers ln Alaska and Callfornla 1esLlng
of Lhe sysLem and producLlon of more mlsslles are conLlnulng At a t|me of worr|es over Lhe weapons programs of North
korea and Iran many kepub||cans and Democrats say they th|nk the system w||| eventua||y
be an effect|ve ||ne of defense and that a ||m|ted ab|||ty to shoot down m|ss||es |s better than
none 1hese |awmakers fear 8ushs |atest request wont be enough to cont|nue deve|op|ng |t
at the current pace 1he threat rema|ns rea| 1he Amer|can peop|e want the|r home|and
defended and |f they fe|t these reduct|ons wou|d [eopard|ze them they wou|d not be happy
w|th us sald Sen !eff Sesslons 8Ala chalrman of Lhe SenaLe Armed Servlces sLraLeglc forces subcommlLLee 8ep 1erry LvereLL 8Ala
chalrman of Lhe Pouse Armed Servlces subcommlLLee LhaL oversees mlsslle defense compared Lhe programs expense Lo Lhe SepL 11 2001
LerrorlsL aLLacks Cne sLrlke agalnsL Lhls counLry cosL us abouL $83 bllllon noL counLlng Lhe human sufferlng LvereLL sald uslng an esLlmaLe
by Lhe Ceneral AccounLablllLy Cfflce an lnvesLlgaLlve agency of Congress SLlll he acknowledged 1h|s stuff costs an awfu| |ot
of money and we have to have resu|ts
8MD and defense systems popu|ar huge b|part support
S|eff ul Senlor news AnalysL (MarLln uemocraLs lor Mlsslle uefense"
hLLp//wwwspacewarcom/reporLs/uemocraLs_lor_Mlsslle_uefense_999hLml
An oped lasL week ln Space news provlded slgnlflcanL supporL for our assessmenL LhaL Lhe new uemocraLconLrolled 110Lh Congress
wants to pra|se ba|||st|c m|ss||e defense not bury |t ln lL Llllson one of Lhe mosL lnfluenLlal proponenLs of Lhe 8ush
admlnlsLraLlons 8Mu program noL only comes Lo Lhe concluslon LhaL Democrats and kepub||cans |n Congress now
agree on a|most a|| fund|ng |ssues assoc|ated w|th 8MD he also polnLed ouL LhaL afLer decades of opposlng or
appearlng Lo oppose any cosLly and amblLlous uS balllsLlc mlsslle defense program on prlnclple Lhe Democrats have now
embraced |t 1he arLlcle by 8lkl Llllson presldenL and founder of Lhe Mlsslle uefense Advocacy Alllance was orlglnally publlshed on !une
3 ln Space news At a t|me of grow|ng |nternat|ona| tens|ons espec|a||y w|th kuss|a and Ch|na th|s
robs the kepub||cans of a monopo|y on an |ncreas|ng|y popu|ar |ssue 1hroughout the past
2 years m|ss||e defense has been perce|ved and cons|dered a kepub||can p|atform pos|t|on
Now the Democrat|c ma[or|ty |n Congress |s cha||eng|ng th|s percept|on and rea||ty Llllson wroLe
Llllson acknowledged LhaL Lhe ma[orlLy uemocraLs ln Lhe uS Pouse of 8epresenLaLlves had [usL approved a defense approprlaLlons blll for
flscal year 2008 LhaL lncluded more Lhan $10 bllllon ln fundlng for 8Mu programs More remarkable was Lhe overall Pouse voLe of 397 Lo 27 Lo
add an addlLlonal $200 mllllon for mlsslle defense above Lhe resldenL Ceorge W 8ushs 2008 budgeL requesL he wroLe Llllson noLed LhaL Lhe
Pouse Lherefore approved no less Lhan 96 percenL of whaL Lhe 8ush admlnlsLraLlon had asked for Lo conLlnue fundlng 8Mu And Lhe requesL
looks llkely Lo be passed lnLo law wlLh llLLle lf any aLLempL Lo scale lL back Cn May 24 Lhe SenaLe Armed Servlces CommlLLee whlch ls now
also conLrolled by uemocraLs approved a very slmllar approprlaLlons blll for $101 bllllon ln 8Mu fundlng And as Llllson polnLed ouL Lhe
SenaLe commlLLees markup lncluded an addlLlonal $73 mllllon above Lhe admlnlsLraLlon requesL Lo come ln aL 98 percenL of Lhe presldenLs
requesL for mlsslle defense Llllson [usLly concluded 1hls ls qulLe a sLaLemenL of supporL for mlsslle defense by Lhe uemocraLconLrolled
Pouse and SenaLe Most notab|y the Democrat|c ma[or|ty has fu||y funded a|| of the current and
soon to be dep|oyed US systems (1herefore) a b|part|san response to ba|||st|c m|ss||e
threats as we|| as support for our m|||tarys m|ss||e defense c|ear|y has become a matter of
fact and not a consequence of part|san po||t|cs 1here are many reasons for Lhe dramaLlc shlfL ln Lhe uemocraLs
congresslonal poslLlon on 8Mu LhaL Llllson noLes Democrat|c congressmen from states where |ucrat|ve and
[obr|ch contracts for 8MD deve|opment are p|aced espec|a||y Ca||forn|a can be expected to
be a|ert to these concerns lL ls no secreL LhaL Pouse Speaker nancy elosl and 8ep Lllen 1auscher chalr of Lhe SLraLeglc lorces
SubcommlLLee of Lhe Pouse Armed Servlces CommlLLee are boLh Callfornla uemocraLs WlLhln days of 8oelng Lockheed MarLln and norLhrop
Crumman Lhe Lhree maln conLracLors for Lhe Alrborne Laser announclng Lhey were [olnlng LogeLher Lo argue agalnsL fundlng for furLher A8L
research and developmenL lncludlng a cruclal upcomlng LesL belng cuL from Lhe 2008 defense approprlaLlons leglslaLlon 1auscher had
resLored lL ln a revlslon of an earller markup 1he b|g defense contractors st||| carry powerfu| c|out espec|a||y
when they are work|ng together and the Democrats on Cap|to| n||| know |t 1he terror
attacks of Sept 2 and the ongo|ng war |n Iraq have brought home to Amer|cans that
the wor|d rema|ns a dangerous p|ace and |t |s gett|ng more so a|| the t|me Also afLer 12 years ln Lhe
pollLlcal wllderness congresslonal uemocraLs now hold real power and Lherefore real responslblllLy agaln ln runnlng boLh chambers of Lhe uS
Congress 1h|s has affected the|r chang|ng percept|ons of 8MD as well 8uL mosL of all Lhough no congresslonal
uemocraL wlll undersLandably every publlcly admlL lL Lhe blggesL reason for Lhelr change on 8Mu ls because of resldenL 8ush Pls hard
charglng deLermlnaLlon on developlng Lhe program has broughL real resulLs
8|part|san support for space 8MD
Stratfor 8 (rovldes lnLelllgence on global buslness economlc securlLy and geopollLlcal affalrs unlLed SLaLes 1he WeaponlzaLlon of Space"
hLLp//wwwsLraLforcom/analysls/unlLed_sLaLes_weaponlzaLlon_space
1he Un|ted States' sate|||te |ntercept demonstrated what S1kA1ICk has argued for some
t|me that ba|||st|c m|ss||e defense (8MD) u|t|mate|y |s about space A defens|ve 8MD
|nterceptor was used |n an |nherent|y offens|ve ro|e (one lL would almosL necessarlly play as an lnLercepLor capable
of hlLLlng a balllsLlc mlsslle warhead hundreds of mlles above LarLh would be up Lo Lhe easler Lask of hlLLlng a saLelllLe aL Lhe same alLlLude)
8MD cou|d we|| push the f|rst "weapon" |nto space 1he M|ss||e Defense Agency |s st|||
work|ng to secure fund|ng from Congress for a space test bed to exp|ore the ro|e of space
systems |n 8MD Wh||e congress|ona| fund|ng |s |n quest|on there |s broad b|part|san
support for 8MD And for strateg|c |ntercont|nenta| 8MD space |s |nherent|y super|or to
terrestr|a| bas|ng for |nterceptors |n terms of coverage f|ex|b|||ty and response t|me uL anoLher
way wh||e nearterm fund|ng for such pro[ects rema|ns quest|onab|e those pro[ects are the
|og|ca| u|t|mate tra[ectory of the de||berate pursu|t of 8MD now underway
No L|nk
Defense spend|ng |s a sacred cow |nsu|ated from norma| budget debate
o||t|cs Da||y Congress on MlllLary Spendlng CuLs noL now Maybe never" May 13 2010
hLLp//wwwpollLlcsdallycom/2010/03/13/congressonmlllLaryspendlngcuLsnoLnowmaybenever/
Last week Defense Secretary kobert ates asked that Congress he|p pare down entagon
costs 1h|s week he got the answer a |oud raspberry Cne key prob|em |s the m|||tarys
skyrocket|ng personne| costs for pay healLh care and generous beneflLs 1he cosL of Lhe mlllLarys healLh lnsurance whose
premlums havenL been ralsed slnce 1993 ls eaLlng us allve CaLes has sald ay |s another dr|ver of r|s|ng costs 8oLh Lhe
enLagon and Congress have lavlshed generous annual ralses on mlllLary personnel well above lncreases for comparable clvlllan pay and wages
1hls year an Army prlvaLe flrsL class unmarrled and ln Lhe flrsL year of hls or her servlce wlll draw $33948 ln pay wlLh $333343 of LhaL Lax
free 1haLs noL counLlng a slew of oLher beneflLs ranglng from reducedcosL healLh care Lo free college courses ln conLrasL Lhe average male
wage earner 1624 years old earns $24396 accordlng Lo Lhe uS 8ureau of Labor SLandards No one of course wou|d argue
that young Amer|cans who put the|r ||ves on the ||ne shou|d be underpa|d 8ut thats the
prob|em as ates d|scovered th|s week It |s po||t|ca||y popu|ar to say yes to defense
spend|ng and po||t|ca| su|c|de to say no

A1 Spend|ng NMD Spend|ng Now
Increased m|ss||e defense spend|ng now by the nouse Cbama's not spend|ng enough
8y WlLLlAM MA11nLWS a wrlLer for uefense news ubllshed 13 May 2 1710
hLLp//wwwdefensenewscom/sLoryphp?l4623187
1he US nouse subcomm|ttee that oversees m|ss||e defense programs voted May 2 to boost
spend|ng on them |n 2 dlsregardlng Lhe presldenLs lebruary budgeL requesL and more recenL warnlngs from Lhe defense
secreLary LhaL defense spendlng musL be resLralned 1he nouse Armed Serv|ces strateg|c forces subcomm|ttee
added 5366 m||||on to next years defense budget to beef up ba|||st|c m|ss||e defense
programs 1haL lncludes $30 mllllon for Lhe alrborne laser a 13yearold program so plagued by problems and delays LhaL uefense
SecreLary 8oberL CaLes canceled mosL of Lhe program lasL year Cverall the subcomm|ttee |ed by kep Iames Langev|n
DkI voted to spend 53 b||||on on m|ss||e defense programs |n 2 res|dent 8arack
Cbama had requested 5 b||||on AmendmenLs seeklng sLlll more mlsslle defense spendlng lncreases are llkely when Lhe full
Armed Servlces CommlLLee marks up Lhe 2011 uefense AuLhorlzaLlon AcL on May 19 a Pouse sLaffer sald 1he exLra spendlng lgnores a May 8
warnlng from CaLes LhaL cuLs Lo weapons programs llkely wlll be necessary Lo keep from cuLLlng force sLrucLure Many of us argued
that a top ||ne |ncrease |n m|ss||e defense spend|ng was necessary sa|d kep M|chae|
1urner 8Chlo Among oLher Lhlngs there was b|part|san concern that the Cbama adm|n|strat|ons
proposed 583 b||||on defense budget d|d not adequate|y fund Aeg|s sh|pbased and 1nAAD
(theater h|gh a|t|tude area defense) m|ss||e |nterceptors he sa|d CneLhlrd of Lhe mlsslle defense lncrease
$1336 mllllon goes Lo Lhe Army Lo repalr upgrade and recerLlfy Army AC3 aLrloL Mlsslles and mlsslle launchers Langevln sald AC3s are
defenslve mlsslles deslgned Lo shooL down balllsLlc and crulse mlsslles AnoLher $63 mllllon ls Lo buy An/1?2 mlsslle defense radars and $30
mllllon ls Lo buy more Aegls SLandard Mlsslle3s 1hese are good government moves that shou|d reduce tota|
product|on costs |n the |ong run Langev|n sa|d Alrborne Laser 8oosL 1he exLra $30 mllllon for Lhe Alrborne Laser
would lncrease fundlng for LhaL program Lo $149 mllllon ln 2011 sald 1ravls Sharp a defense budgeL analysL for Lhe CenLer for a new Amerlcan
SecurlLy 8egun ln 1994 Lhe Alrborne Laser was supposed Lo be a 8oelng 747 able Lo shooL down enemy mlsslles as Lhey were belng launched
1he program consumed abouL $3 bllllon buL made halLlng progress unLll 2009 when CaLes reduced lL Lo a research program 1he
subcommlLLee pumped money lnLo anoLher canceled program 1SA1 Lhe LransformaLlonal saLelllLe program also kllled by CaLes lasL year
Lawmakers voted to spend 5 m||||on so that commun|cat|ons techno|og|es can cont|nue to
be deve|oped Cperat|ona||y kespons|ve Space a program to qu|ck|y |aunch sate|||tes
rece|ves an extra 54 m||||on to acce|erate deve|opment And Lhe Army recelves $312 mllllon for uefense
Advanced CS 8ecelvers anoLher unfunded requesL 1he subcommlLLee added $88 mllllon for a uSlsraell mlsslle defense program 1o help
pay for Lhese addons Lhe subcommlLLee cuL $300 mllllon from Lhe naLlonal olarorblLlng CperaLlonal LnvlronmenLal SaLelllLe SysLem whlch
ls behlnd schedule and subsLanLlally over budgeL As lL has for Lhe pasL Lhree years Lhe subcommlLLee denled a $409 mllllon requesL for Lhe
PlghlnLegrlLy Clobal oslLlonlng SysLem and lL cuL $30 mllllon from Lhe Space 8ased Survelllance SysLem whlch ls Lhree years behlnd schedule
accordlng Lo Lhe CovernmenL AccounLablllLy Cfflce Cverall unclasslfled space programs are cuL by $1822 mllllon 1haL leaves Lhem wlLh a
budgeL of $99 bllllon for 2011 Langevln sald

W||| be |ncreased spend|ng on m|ss||e defense costs |n future
by Aaron kupar ul CorrespondenL WashlngLon (ul) nov 09 26 uS 8alllsLlc Mlsslle uefense Spendlng May uouble"
hLLp//wwwspacewarcom/reporLs/uS_8alllsLlc_Mlsslle_uefense_Spendlng_May_uouble_999hLml
US ana|ysts have determ|ned that annua| entagon m|ss||e defense
costs w||| near|y doub|e by 26 1he analysLs were from Lhe CenLer for uefense lnformaLlon a llberalleanlng WashlngLon
Lhlnk Lank 1he|r conc|us|ons were based on a study of a Congress|ona| 8udget Cff|ce report
re|eased |ast month Current|y annua| US Department of of Defense m|ss||e defense
expend|tures are about 5 b||||on CDIs ana|ys|s of the C8C report determ|ned that annua|
costs are expected to r|se to 58 b||||on by 26 h|||p Coy|e a CDI sen|or adv|ser and
d|rector of operat|ona| test and eva|uat|on for the Cff|ce of the Secretary of Defense from
42 to|d Un|ted ress Internat|ona| that costs for m|ss||e defense m|ght even keep
go|ng up (beyond Lhe C8C est|mates)

A1 Spend|ng
Iu||y funded space NMD wou|d cover |ess than 2 of the defense budget
Charles |aser and SLeve Ietter rofessor ln Lhe lrvlng 8 Parrls CraduaLe School of ubllc ollcy SLudles aL Lhe unlverslLy of Chlcago and
rofessor ln Lhe School of ubllc Affalrs aL Lhe unlverslLy of Maryland 01 lnLernaLlonal SecurlLy naLlonal Mlsslle uefense and Lhe luLure of
uS nuclear Weapons ollcy" Summer 2 vol 26 no 1 4092
AL Lhe same Llme lf nMu could be made effecLlve agalnsL rogue LhreaLs and lf Lhe pollLlcal cosLs wlLh 8ussla and Chlna could be mlnlmlzed
Lhen Lhe case agalnsL llmlLed nMu becomes less clearcuL AlLhough rogue sLaLes would mosL llkely be deLerred from aLLacklng Lhe unlLed
SLaLes wlLh longrange balllsLlc mlsslles Lhls ls noL cerLaln At 56 b||||on ||m|ted NMD |s expens|ve but wou|d
amount to |ess than 2 percent of the defense budget and 10 percenL of Lhe procuremenL budgeL durlng Lhe years lL
was belng deployed wh|ch |s not out of ||ne w|th other procurement programs that can be descr|bed
as |nsurance aga|nst un||ke|y dangers 1hus Lhe unlLed SLaLes should explore wheLher Lhere are pollcles LhaL would
slgnlflcanLly reduce Lhe lnLernaLlonal pollLlcal cosLs of nMu and begln laylng Lhe groundwork for pursulng Lhem ln case an effecLlve nMu
sysLem becomes feaslble8
Counterp|ans
A1 round NMD So|ves
roundbased weapons fa||
Ceorge n Lew|s and 1heodore A osto| Ceorge n Lewls has a hu ln experlmenLal physlcs and ls assoclaLe dlrecLor of Lhe eace SLudles
rogram aL Cornell unlverslLy 1heodore A osLol ls professor of sclence Lechnology and naLlonal securlLy pollcy aL Lhe MassachuseLLs
lnsLlLuLe of 1echnology and a former sclenLlflc advlser Lo Lhe chlef of naval operaLlons May 2 ubllshed on Arms ConLrol AssoclaLlon
(hLLp//wwwarmsconLrolorg)
Powever a rev|ew of the actua| state of m|ss||e defense techno|og|es revea|s that th|s new v|s|on
put forth by the report |s noth|ng more than a f|ct|on and that the po||cy strategy that fo||ows
from these techn|ca| myths cou|d we|| |ead to a fore|gn po||cy d|saster W|th regard to current
m|ss||e defense techno|og|es there are no new mater|a| facts to support any of the c|a|ms |n
the report that suggest that the Un|ted States |s now |n a pos|t|on to defend |tse|f from
||m|ted IC8M attacks or that any of the fundamenta| unso|ved prob|ems assoc|ated w|th h|gh
a|t|tude ba|||st|c m|ss||e defenses have been so|ved In fact as th|s art|c|e w||| show the most
recent ba|||st|c m|ss||e defense f||ghttest data re|eased by the Department of Defense and
the most recent fa||ed test of the groundbased m|ss||e defense system |n Ianuary show qu|te
the oppos|te 1he 8eporL's romlses Accordlng Lo Lhe mlsslle defense reporL Lhe conLlnenLal unlLed SLaLes ls now" and for Lhe
foreseeable fuLure" proLecLed agalnsL llmlLed lC8M aLLacks1 1he reporL furLher asserLs LhaL Lhls advanLageous poslLlon" ls Lhe resulL of
welllnformed lnvesLmenLs" made over Lhe pasL decade by Lhe CllnLon and 8ush admlnlsLraLlons ln Lhe groundbased mldcourse balllsLlc
mlsslle defense (CMu) sysLem whlch accordlng Lo Lhe reporL currenLly proLecLs Lhe conLlnenLal unlLed SLaLes from lC8M aLLack2 ln Lhe area
of reglonal mlsslle defenses Lhe reporL asserLs LhaL recenL successes" have demonsLraLed LhaL Lhe unlLed SLaLes can now rely on mlsslle
defense sysLems such as Lhe navy's SLandard Mlsslle 3 (SM3) and Lhe Army's aLrloL and 1ermlnal Plgh AlLlLude Area uefense (1PAAu)
sysLems3 Accordlng Lo Lhe reporL Lhe SM3 8lock lA has been proven hlghly rellable ln numerous fllghL LesLs and wlll be lmmedlaLely
deployed under Lhe admlnlsLraLlon's schedule an upgraded varlanL Lhe 8lock l8 wlll be deployed ln 2013 lL ls Lo be followed ln 2018 by an
even more capable 8lock llA and ln 2020 by a yeL more capable 8lock ll8 8ecause Lhe SM3 LesLs have been so successful Lhese new varlanLs
of Lhe SM3 wlll be able Lo accompllsh a wlde range of ma[or reglonal balllsLlc mlsslle defense mlsslons lncludlng enhanclng Lhe already lnhand
lC8M defenses of Lhe conLlnenLal unlLed SLaLes Lhe reporL says 1he baslc plan for Lhe already funcLlonlng CMu lC8M defense wlll evenLually
be 30 sllobased lnLercepLors ln Lwo exlsLlng sllo flelds26 aL lorL Creely Alaska and four aL vandenberg Alr lorce 8ase ln Callfornla A Lhlrd
fleld of 14 addlLlonal sllos wlll be bullL as a hedge" agalnsL an unexpecLed need for addlLlonal lnLercepLors ln addlLlon Lhe SM3 and lLs
modernlzed varlanLs wlll be wldely deployed on shlps and on land ln Lhe laLLer case uslng shlp launch sysLems LhaL have been modlfled for land
deploymenL LlaboraLe communlcaLlons and command and conLrol sysLems wlll llnk radars on land and sea wlLh spacebased lnfrared early
warnlng sysLems creaLlng a hlghly flexlble lnLegraLed global mlsslle defense wlLh componenLs LhaL can be qulckly moved and concenLraLed as
clrcumsLances dlcLaLe 1he reporL apparenLly derlved from 10 monLhs of lnLense Lechnlcal analysls by Lhe uefense ueparLmenL Lherefore lays
ouL a vlslon of how Lhe unlLed SLaLes lnLends Lo consLrucL over Lhe nexL decade a hlghly rellable robusL moblle and adapLable global mlsslle
defense sysLem Accordlng Lo Lhe reporL Lhls sysLem wlll be able Lo defeaL and deLer LhreaLs of nuclear and convenLlonal aLLacks agalnsL Lhe
unlLed SLaLes lLs allles and frlends and wlll be so rellable and robusL LhaL adversarles confronLed by lL wlll reallze LhaL Lhey have no cholce buL
Lo deemphaslze Lhelr rellance on balllsLlc mlsslles nowever the Defense Department's own test data show
that |n combat the vast ma[or|ty of "successfu|" SM3 exper|ments wou|d have fa||ed to
destroy attack|ng warheads 1he daLa also show poLenLlal adversarles how Lo defeaL boLh Lhe SM3 and Lhe CMu sysLems
whlch share Lhe same serlous flaws LhaL can be readlly explolLed by adversarles 1he long record of LesLs of Lhe CMu sysLem and Lhe mosL
recenL LesL ln !anuary of Lhls year shows LhaL lL has only been LesLed ln carefully orchesLraLed scenarlos LhaL have been deslgned Lo hlde
fundamenLal flaws and produce appearances of success 1he report prov|des no mater|a| facts or a||us|ons to
facts that |nd|cate any techn|ca| advances that wou|d counter the |ong record of orchestrated
and dumbeddown m|ss||e defense tests 1he proof of these f|aws |s |n the data that the
Defense Department c|tes as ev|dence of the robustness of the MD and SM3 systems 1hat
shou|d be a strong warn|ng to po||cymakers who be||eve that the m|ss||e defense systems
promoted |n the report w||| actua||y d|scourage future adversar|es from pursu|ng ba|||st|c
m|ss||e programs

1errestr|a| m|ss||e defense can't ach|eve comprehens|ve defense because of ||m|ted mob|||ty and vu|nerab|||ty to countermeasures
Lambak|s SLeve ls a Senlor AnalysL and Managlng LdlLor aL ComparaLlve SLraLegy 07 (Poover lnsLlLuLlon Mlsslle uefense lrom Space"
lebruary/March 2 hLLp//wwwgeesorg/documenLos/uocumen02177pdf Popklns)
Cver the |ong term w||| the current|y conf|gured and p|anned terrestr|a|based m|ss||e
defense system be suff|c|ent to dea| w|th |ncreas|ng|y soph|st|cated countermeasures and
sh|ft|ng threats? 1he answer l belleve |s no 1he sysLem belng deployed Loday ls flxed flrmly Lo LarLh WheLher Lhey are
seabased or landbased weapons or even Lhe boosLengagemenL Alrborne Laser we are essenLlally Lalklng abouL LerresLrlal plaLforms for
baslng weapons As we move lnLo Lhe fuLure Lhere are plans Lo make Lhose plaLforms Lhe sensors and lnLercepLors more moblle Why?
8ecause greater mob|||ty can prov|de greater f|ex|b|||ty for dea||ng w|th unpred|cted threats
MoblllLy also allows a commander Lo concenLraLe hls forces or dlsperse Lhem as Lhe requlremenLs of Lhe baLLlefleld demand lL maLLers where
we locaLe sensors and lnLercepLors lL ls lmporLanL Lo puL sensors close Lo Lhe LhreaL because Lhey wlll be ln poslLlon Lo provlde crlLlcal cuelng
and Lracklng daLa early ln a balllsLlc mlsslle's fllghL 1hese daLa can help enlarge Lhe engagemenL baLLle space 1o perform boost
phase |ntercept from the ground or sea the weapons p|atforms must be very near the target
|aunch s|te 1hese LerresLrlal boosLphase weapons can defend many LargeLs around Lhe globe by coverlng a slngle launch slLe 1he
d|sadvantage of such bas|ng a dlsadvanLage LhaL ls mlLlgaLed somewhaL wlLh a moblle plaLform llke Lhe Alrborne Laser |s
that the threat |aunch s|te or reg|on must be pred|cted 1erresLrlalbased weapons LhaL engage ln space ln Lhe
mlddle or mldcourse of a mlsslle's or warhead's fllghL offer perhaps Lhe greaLesL flexlblllLy ln Lerms of addresslng posslble fllghL azlmuLhs
Lra[ecLorles and launch polnLs Wh||e groundbased m|dcourse |nterceptors may have to be or|ented to
|arge threat reg|ons they can defend aga|nst mu|t|p|e |aunch po|nts Converse|y ground
|nterceptors that are near the target can defend on|y a sma|| area but they can potent|a||y
protect that po|nt from |aunches anywhere |n the wor|d et |t |s s|mp|y unaffordab|e to do a
po|nt defense for every p|ace you want to defend |n the Un|ted States every p|ace that US
forces go or everywhere that our a|||es are 1he ab|||ty to do area defense Lo defend agalnsL
mulLlple launch polnLs as opposed Lo dolng polnL defense of a very llmlLed area |s fundamenta| to successfu| m|ss||e
defense ollLlcal sLraLeglc and Lechnologlcal uncerLalnLles could change Lhe mlsslle defense scenarlo by causlng a shlfL ln Lhe LhreaL from
one reglon Lo anoLher |ven that |t takes years to f|e|d test and make operat|ona| new f|xed
|nterceptor and sensor s|tes a sh|ft |n the threat cou|d |eave the nat|on vu|nerab|e 8ecause
many of the |nterceptors and sensors |n the current system are f|xed to geograph|c po|nts we
are ||m|ted |n our ab|||ty to defend the home|and for examp|e aga|nst m|ss||es |aunched
from surpr|se |ocat|ons such as a sh|p off our shore||ne We a|so m|ght face an adversary
tomorrow that dep|oys tens or even hundreds of ba|||st|c m|ss||es or one that has more
soph|st|cated countermeasure and reentry techno|og|es 1hose Loo would be expecLed Lo sLress Lhe currenL
sysLem whlch ls deslgned aL Lhe momenL Lo deal wlLh more llmlLed LhreaLs lanned LransporLable landbased and moblle seabased and
alrborne sysLems also suffer llmlLaLlons 1he need Lo base sensors and lnLercepLors forward closer Lo LhreaL launch slLes ln order Lo enlarge
Lhe engagemenL baLLle space makes our securlLy dependenL on pollLlcal declslons by forelgn governmenLs ro[ecLed boosL defense sysLems
whlch may be deployed Lo Lhe perlphery or llLLoral of an adversary would have very llmlLed or no uLlllLy agalnsL a balllsLlc mlsslle launched from
several hundred mlles lnslde a LhreaL counLry's border 1he |nab|||ty to engage a m|ss||e |n boost means we
wou|d be |eft w|th on|y m|dcourse or term|na| |ntercept poss|b|||t|es |f those are ava||ab|e
and th|s removes a |ayer from the effect|veness ca|cu|at|ons


A1 round NMD So|ves
S8MD doesn't need perm|ss|on from host countr|es and spurs countermeasures that make m|ss||es |ess effect|ve
Ireder|ck LL Col Lorlnda A M8A 8egls unlverslLy MasLer of MlllLary CperaLlonal ArL and Sclence Alr Command and SLaff College MasLer of
Alrpower ArL and Sclence School of Advanced Alr and Space SLudles worked space and mlsslle offlcer asslgnmenLs and lC8M requlremenLs '09
(Alr and Space ower !ournal ueLerrence and Space8ased Mlsslle uefense" SepLember 2
Many characLerlsLlcs of S8Mu could creaLe uncerLalnLy ln Lhe mlnds of poLenLlal adversarles abouL wheLher or noL Lhey could achleve Lhelr
alms
48
Space prov|des access to threats |n areas that terrestr|a| mar|t|me and a|rborne
defenses cannot reach S8MD |s capab|e of destroy|ng ba|||st|c m|ss||es over the enemy's
terr|tory before they re|ease mu|t|p|e reentry veh|c|es or countermeasures des|gned to
thwart defenses1he constant forward presence of S8MD cou|d a||ow the Un|ted States to
||m|t |ts m|||tary footpr|nt on fore|gn so|| and support many m|||tary operat|ons
s|mu|taneous|y Land and seabased lnLercepLors have Lo be placed ln areas where Lhey can provlde credlble proLecLlon from balllsLlc
mlsslle aLLacks reposlLlonlng lnfrasLrucLure supplles and equlpmenL may shorLen response Llmes when hosLlllLles erupL buL Lhey are cosLly
and dlfflculL Lo susLaln S8Mu allows a nonlnLruslve forward presence because lL does noL requlre Lhe preposlLlonlng of asseLs on oLher
LerrlLorleslurLhermore employlng S8Mu ls noL conLlngenL on approval from anoLher naLlon 1he
conLlnued presence of US assets on fore|gn so|| depends on the host nat|on's accept|ng or
approv|ng the m|ss|on that those assets support If defenses are not |n pos|t|on deterrence |s
reduced Stat|oned |n the r|ght orb|ts |n the r|ght quant|t|es S8MD cou|d deter or defend
aga|nst attacks aroundthec|ock especlally lf used ln concerL wlLh oLher sea and landbased mlsslle defenses
kespond|ng to Countermeasures otent|a| adversar|es may deve|op countermeasures |n
response to the US f|e|d|ng of an S8MD because the |atter wou|d make the|r capab|||t|es
|neffect|ve kD of countermeasures wh|ch takes t|me and money may resu|t |n reduced
pay|oad and$or range of the m|ss||e 1hese monetary and performance costs may be enough
to deter an adversary from attempt|ng countermeasuresCne counLermeasure agalnsL nonklneLlc S8Mu
capablllLleshardened mlssllescould have a reduced payload due Lo Lhe added welghL of Lhe hardenlng maLerlal and addlLlonal fuel needed
Lo reach Lhe requlred dlsLances 1he adversary could also fleld more mlsslles Lo saLuraLe Lhe mlsslle defense archlLecLure
49
1he saLuraLlon polnL
depends upon Lhe numbers of boLh spacebased and LerresLrlally based lnLercepLors deployed 8ecause decoys and
countermeasures are dep|oyed after boost phase S8MD cou|d ||ghten the |oad for m|dcourse
and term|na|phase defenses1he adversary cou|d a|so sh|ft from ba|||st|c m|ss||es to cru|se
m|ss||es but wou|d pay a pena|ty |n terms of speed reach and destruct|ve potent|a| 1hese
pena|t|es |n comb|nat|on w|th ex|st|ng cru|se m|ss||e defenses cou|d make an attack |ess
||ke|y to succeed Space sensors des|gned to tr|gger S8MD cou|d a|so tr|gger 1MD to |ntercept
cru|se m|ss||es S8MD cou|d |ncrease the effect|veness of the current 8MD arch|tecture even
|f the adversary emp|oys countermeasures Credlble capablllLles have Lhe poLenLlal Lo deny an adversary's ob[ecLlves and
Lherefore may deLer hlm from employlng balllsLlc mlsslles alLogeLher key pollLlcal declslons help explaln Lhe progress (or lack Lhereof) made
Lowards explorlng and developlng Lhe poLenLlal of S8Mu 1he Way Ahead S8Mu progressed Lhrough varlous programs such as CALS 8rllllanL
ebbles ClemenLlne and S8L desplLe dwlndllng supporL from presldenLlal admlnlsLraLlons followlng resldenL 8eagan's res Ceorge W 8ush
paved Lhe way for Lhe nexL admlnlsLraLlon Lo puL S8Mu on Lhe lnLernaLlonal agenda Accordlng Lo 1be Notloool 5ecotlty 5ttoteqy of tbe uolteJ
5totes of Ametlco (2006) Lhe unlLed SLaLes may need new approaches Lo deLer sLaLe and nonsLaLe acLors and deny Lhem Lhe ob[ecLlves of Lhelr
aLLacks
30
AddlLlonally Lhe Notloool 5ttoteqy to combot weopoos of Moss uesttoctloo (2002) sLaLes LhaL today's threats are far
more d|verse and |ess pred|ctab|e than those of the past States host||e to the Un|ted States
and to our fr|ends and a|||es have demonstrated the|r w||||ngness to take h|gh r|sks to ach|eve
the|r goa|s and are aggress|ve|y pursu|ng WMD and the|r means of de||very as cr|t|ca| too|s |n
th|s effort As a consequence we requ|re new methods of deterrence"
31
CooperaLlon on mlsslle defense
lnlLlaLlves could lncrease global sLablllLy 8y bandlng LogeLher ln coallLlons counLrles can deLer war by repelllng an aLLack agalnsL any member
32

SLaLes and rogue elemenLs wlll noL be able Lo sLrlke surrepLlLlously lf Lhey know LhaL Lhe lnLernaLlonal communlLy could qulckly dlscern Lhe
orlgln of any launch and compuLe poLenLlal lmpacL polnLs ALLempLs by a rogue elemenL Lo desLablllze Lhe reglon Lhrough Lhe aLLrlbuLlon of
aLLacks Lo a sLaLe may lnlLlally promoLe Lhe rogue elemenLs own agenda Powever daLa provlded by mlsslle defense and oLher sensors can
refuLe such clalms 1he shared lnLernaLlonal ablllLy Lo ldenLlfy launch and lmpacL polnLs mlghL deLer sLaLes and rogue elemenLs from launchlng
ln Lhe flrsL place 1he more naLlons cooperaLe wlLh each oLher Lhe more sLable Lhe world becomesollcy makers need Lo lnvesL ln Lhe
developmenL of many dlfferenL capablllLles lncludlng S8Mu Lo negaLe mlsslles ln Lhelr boosL phase and use Lhe lnformaLlon gleaned from
Lhese developmenLs Lo lnform declslons Cne approach lnvolves brlnglng a sysLem Lo Lhe proLoLype sLage for LesLlng and accuraLely gauglng lLs
performance 1hls approach could leL Lhe unlLed SLaLes lnvesL ln only a llmlLed number of proLoLypes Lhus deferrlng largescale producLlon Lo
allow furLher research developmenL and LesLlng 1hese efforLs could decrease Lhe rlsk of fallure durlng producLlon and deploymenL
33
When
Lhe need arlses Lhe unlLed SLaLes should caplLallze on preexlsLlng proLoLypes as long as Lhe lndusLrlal base could supporL rapld producLlon8y
fundlng 8u for S8Mu Lhe unlLed SLaLes would ensure Lhe vlablllLy of Lhese Lechnologles 1he uCu cannoL expecL developmenLs ln
commerclal lndusLry Lo be avallable for naLlonal securlLy purposes CompeLlLlve pressures force lndusLry Lo fund nearLerm 8u programs and
choose nearLerm survlval over longLerm posslblllLles
34
Applled research lnLo S8Mu Lechnologles would allow Lhe unlLed SLaLes Lo galn more
knowledge abouL boosLphase defenses Amerlca wlll geL as much 8u ln S8Mu Lechnologles as lL ls wllllng Lo fund 1he unlLed SLaLes may
need Lo examlne Lhe sLandards lL applles Lo Lhe fleldlng of oLher 8Mu sysLems and ad[usL expecLaLlons for an lnlLlal S8Mu capablllLy Penry
klsslnger has commenLed on Lhe sLandard of perfecLlon applled Lo mlsslle defense 1he experLs had all Lhe Lechnlcal argumenLs on Lhelr slde
buL 8eagan had goL hold of an elemenLal pollLlcal LruLh |n a wor|d of nuc|ear weapons |eaders who make no
effort to protect the|r peop|es aga|nst acc|dent mad opponents nuc|ear pro||ferat|on and a
who|e host of other foreseeab|e dangers |nv|te the opprobr|um of poster|ty |f d|saster ever
does occur 1haL lL was noL posslble aL Lhe beglnnlng of a compllcaLed research program Lo demonsLraLe Sul's maxlmum effecLlveness
was lnherenL ln Lhe complexlLy of Lhe problem no weapon would ever have been developed lf lL flrsL had had Lo submlL Lo so perfecLlonlsL a
crlLerlon
33
lleldlng even lmperfecL elemenLs of Lhe archlLecLure may deLer an adversary as occurred ln ueserL SLorm when lmperfecL 1Mu
helped keep lsrael ouL of Lhe war1he facL LhaL senlor leaders and pollcy makers Lend Lo focus on currenL lssues because Lhey are more Langlble
puLs Lhe unlLed SLaLes aL rlsk of noL fundlng research crlLlcal Lo lLs fuLure defense Amerlca may need Lo avold pressures Lo sacrlflce longLerm
research for Lhe sake of shorLLerm procuremenL by movlng away from havlng pollcy deLermlne Lhe Lechnologles pursued and leLLlng feaslble
Lechnologles lnform pollcles necessary Lo deLer LhreaLs
Spacebased m|ss||e defense key to effect|veness terrestr|a| systems fa||
Independent Work|ng roup(1he lndependenL Worklng Croup ls cochalred by ur 8oberL falLzgraff resldenL of Lhe lnsLlLuLe of lorelgn
ollcy Analysls (llA) aL 1ufLs unlverslLy and by ur Wllllam 8 van Cleave rofessor LmerlLus of Lhe ueparLmenL of uefense and SLraLeglc
SLudles aL Mlssourl SLaLe unlverslLy and a member of Lhe orlglnal uS delegaLlon whlch drafLed Lhe 1972 A8M 1reaLy Ambassador Penry l
Cooper who ln former roles oversaw boLh developmenL of mlsslle defense for Lhe uS and was chlef negoLlaLor Lo Lhe Ceneva uefense and
Space 1alks ur 8oberL !asLrow foundlng dlrecLor of nASA's Coddard lnsLlLuLe for Space SLudles and ur Lowell Wood a hyslclsL aL Lawrence
Llvermore naLlonal LaboraLory and Commlssloner on Lhe Commlsslon Lo Assess Lhe 1hreaL Lo Lhe unlLed SLaLes from LlecLromagneLlc ulse
(LM) were among Lhe numerous mlsslle defense space and securlLy experLs from Lhe sclenLlflc Lechnlcal and naLlonal securlLy pollcy
communlLles around Lhe counLry who are members of Lhe lndependenL Worklng Croup Members of Lhe Worklng Croup also lnclude 8rlan 1
kennedy presldenL of Lhe ClaremonL lnsLlLuLe and 1homas karako ulrecLor of rograms aL Lhe ClaremonL lnsLlLuLe and edlLor of
MlsslleLhreaLcom Sponsors and auLhors of Lhe lWC reporL lnclude elghL LhlnkLanks headquarLered ln WashlngLon uC Callfornla Alaska
Mlssourl MassachuseLLs and around Lhe counLry2(CollecLlvereporL/sLudy) mlsslle defense and Lhe space relaLlonshlp and Lhe 21sL
cenLury"2007 hLLp//wwwmlsslleLhreaLcom/reposlLory/docllb/lWCreporLpdf)
Cther th|ngs be|ng equa| |t |s preferab|e to |ntercept threaten|ng ba|||st|c m|ss||es as far away
from the|r |ntended targets as poss|b|e and as ear|y |n the|r f||ght tra[ectory as poss|b|e 8est
of a|| wou|d be to have the capab|||ty to destroy an attack|ng m|ss||e short|y after |t |s
|aunched wh||e |ts rockets st||| burn and any perturbat|on w||| |ead to |ts destruct|on wlLh ln
many cases Lhe debrls falllng back onLo Lhe area where Lhe aLLack was launched ln Lhe flrsL place 1he capablllLy Lo lnLerdlcL a mlsslle and lLs
warheads ln any phases of Lhelr fllghL (boosL mldcourse and Lermlnal) requlres an ablllLy Lo deLecL and lnLercepL Lhe aLLack wlLhln a very few
mlnuLes and Lo Lrack and desLroy Lhe aLLacklng mlsslle and lLs warheads durlng Lhelr longer mldcourse Lraverse Lhrough space before Lhey
begln Lo reenLer Lhe aLmosphere so LhaL Lhe debrls wlll burn up on reenLry llnally Lhe lasL dlLch defense would be Lo desLroy Lhe aLLacklng
mlsslle as Lhey reenLer and pass Lhrough Lhe aLmosphere ln Lhe Lermlnal phase enrouLe Lo Lhelr LargeL 1he besL defense capablllLy would be
layered so LhaL lL could provlde opporLunlLles for desLrucLlon ln all Lhree phases of fllghL Cn|y spacebased defenses
|nherent|y have th|s g|oba| capab|||ty and permanence Whlle seabased defenses can move freely Lhrough Lhe
LwoLhlrds of Lhe earLh's surface LhaL are oceans Lhelr capablllLy ls llmlLed by geography and by Lhe speclflc operaLlons of Lhe fleeL lncludlng
where Lhe seabased mlsslle defense happens Lo be deployed aL any glven Llme and how qulckly lL could be redeployed Lo meeL a crlsls
slLuaLlon Alrbased and groundbased defenses meanwhlle can have global capablllLles buL frequenLly Lake conslderable Llme Lo deploy when
and where needed and are also dependenL on Lhe cooperaLlon of uS frlends and allles ln permlLLlng Lhe necessary supporLlng acLlvlLles on
Lhelr LerrlLorles 1hus on|y a spacebased m|ss||e defense w||| possess both constancy and g|oba|
ava||ab|||ty |rrespect|ve of a|||ed support and agreement As such spacebased m|ss||e
defense const|tutes the on|y tru|y g|oba| system w|th a|| the rest be|ng e|ther "reglonal" or local"80
ln Lhe case of seabased sysLems namely Lhe Aeqls program dlscussed ln SecLlon 2 we have a reglonal" sysLem capable of boosLphase
mldcourse and Lermlnal lnLercepL dependlng on where and how lL ls poslLloned or vecLored lL has a nearglobal appllcaLlon for teqloool
operaLlons because lL ls seabased and can be LheoreLlcally deployed over any porLlon of Lhe earLh's surface covered by waLer A landbased
sysLem can LheoreLlcally be deployed anywhere over abouL oneLhlrd of Lhe world and dependlng on how lL ls vecLored under some llmlLed
condlLlons would be capable of boosLphase mldcourse and Lermlnal lnLercepLlon et spacebased m|ss||e defense a|one
|s tru|y g|oba| |n reach because of the med|um |n wh|ch |t operates unconstra|ned by
overf||ght or terr|tor|a| restr|ct|ons lL also offers lnherenL lnLerdlcLlon advanLages descrlbed ln greaLer deLall below
A1 round NMD So|ves
1errestr|a| m|ss||e defense can't ach|eve comprehens|ve defense because of ||m|ted mob|||ty and vu|nerab|||ty to countermeasures
Lambak|s SLeve ls a Senlor AnalysL and Managlng LdlLor aL ComparaLlve SLraLegy 07 (Poover lnsLlLuLlon Mlsslle uefense lrom Space"
lebruary/March 2 hLLp//wwwgeesorg/documenLos/uocumen02177pdf Popklns)
Cver the |ong term w||| the current|y conf|gured and p|anned terrestr|a|based m|ss||e
defense system be suff|c|ent to dea| w|th |ncreas|ng|y soph|st|cated countermeasures and
sh|ft|ng threats? 1he answer l belleve |s no 1he sysLem belng deployed Loday ls flxed flrmly Lo LarLh WheLher Lhey are
seabased or landbased weapons or even Lhe boosLengagemenL Alrborne Laser we are essenLlally Lalklng abouL LerresLrlal plaLforms for
baslng weapons As we move lnLo Lhe fuLure Lhere are plans Lo make Lhose plaLforms Lhe sensors and lnLercepLors more moblle Why?
8ecause greater mob|||ty can prov|de greater f|ex|b|||ty for dea||ng w|th unpred|cted threats
MoblllLy also allows a commander Lo concenLraLe hls forces or dlsperse Lhem as Lhe requlremenLs of Lhe baLLlefleld demand lL maLLers where
we locaLe sensors and lnLercepLors lL ls lmporLanL Lo puL sensors close Lo Lhe LhreaL because Lhey wlll be ln poslLlon Lo provlde crlLlcal cuelng
and Lracklng daLa early ln a balllsLlc mlsslle's fllghL 1hese daLa can help enlarge Lhe engagemenL baLLle space 1o perform boost
phase |ntercept from the ground or sea the weapons p|atforms must be very near the target
|aunch s|te 1hese LerresLrlal boosLphase weapons can defend many LargeLs around Lhe globe by coverlng a slngle launch slLe 1he
d|sadvantage of such bas|ng a dlsadvanLage LhaL ls mlLlgaLed somewhaL wlLh a moblle plaLform llke Lhe Alrborne Laser |s
that the threat |aunch s|te or reg|on must be pred|cted 1erresLrlalbased weapons LhaL engage ln space ln Lhe
mlddle or mldcourse of a mlsslle's or warhead's fllghL offer perhaps Lhe greaLesL flexlblllLy ln Lerms of addresslng posslble fllghL azlmuLhs
Lra[ecLorles and launch polnLs Wh||e groundbased m|dcourse |nterceptors may have to be or|ented to
|arge threat reg|ons they can defend aga|nst mu|t|p|e |aunch po|nts Converse|y ground
|nterceptors that are near the target can defend on|y a sma|| area but they can potent|a||y
protect that po|nt from |aunches anywhere |n the wor|d et |t |s s|mp|y unaffordab|e to do a
po|nt defense for every p|ace you want to defend |n the Un|ted States every p|ace that US
forces go or everywhere that our a|||es are 1he ab|||ty to do area defense Lo defend agalnsL
mulLlple launch polnLs as opposed Lo dolng polnL defense of a very llmlLed area |s fundamenta| to successfu| m|ss||e
defense ollLlcal sLraLeglc and Lechnologlcal uncerLalnLles could change Lhe mlsslle defense scenarlo by causlng a shlfL ln Lhe LhreaL from
one reglon Lo anoLher |ven that |t takes years to f|e|d test and make operat|ona| new f|xed
|nterceptor and sensor s|tes a sh|ft |n the threat cou|d |eave the nat|on vu|nerab|e 8ecause
many of the |nterceptors and sensors |n the current system are f|xed to geograph|c po|nts we
are ||m|ted |n our ab|||ty to defend the home|and for examp|e aga|nst m|ss||es |aunched
from surpr|se |ocat|ons such as a sh|p off our shore||ne We a|so m|ght face an adversary
tomorrow that dep|oys tens or even hundreds of ba|||st|c m|ss||es or one that has more
soph|st|cated countermeasure and reentry techno|og|es 1hose Loo would be expecLed Lo sLress Lhe currenL
sysLem whlch ls deslgned aL Lhe momenL Lo deal wlLh more llmlLed LhreaLs lanned LransporLable landbased and moblle seabased and
alrborne sysLems also suffer llmlLaLlons 1he need Lo base sensors and lnLercepLors forward closer Lo LhreaL launch slLes ln order Lo enlarge
Lhe engagemenL baLLle space makes our securlLy dependenL on pollLlcal declslons by forelgn governmenLs ro[ecLed boosL defense sysLems
whlch may be deployed Lo Lhe perlphery or llLLoral of an adversary would have very llmlLed or no uLlllLy agalnsL a balllsLlc mlsslle launched from
several hundred mlles lnslde a LhreaL counLry's border 1he |nab|||ty to engage a m|ss||e |n boost means we
wou|d be |eft w|th on|y m|dcourse or term|na| |ntercept poss|b|||t|es |f those are ava||ab|e
and th|s removes a |ayer from the effect|veness ca|cu|at|ons





A1 narden|ng C
Sh|e|d|ng and harden|ng assets w||| not be enough on|y weapon|zat|on w||| keep our
space assets safe
1ucker 28 masLers Lhesls presenLed Lo SCPCCL Cl AuvAnCLu Al8 Anu SACL
S1uulLSAl8 unlvL8Sl1? LleuLenanL Colonel also recelved a masLers ln mlllLary operaLlonal arL
and sclence from Alr Command and SLaff College many mlllLary honors (uennls
8LSL8vlnC unl1Lu S1A1LS uCMlnAnCL 1PL 8LnLll1S Cl WLACnlZlnC 1PL PlCP
C8Cunu" Alr unlverslLy 8esearch downloaded from
hLLps//wwwafresearchorg/sklns/rlms/dlsplayaspx?moduleldbe0e99f3fc364ccb8dfe
670c0822a133modeuseracLlonresearchpro[ecLob[ecLld299bb7233d894d749a4e
bcc36ba3a9fe
A great advantage of any spacebased weapon klneLlc or nonklneLlc |s that |t |s very d|ff|cu|t
to defend aga|nst WlLh a spacebased laser the str|ke wou|d be near |nstantaneous WlLh a
klneLlc sLrlke lL would be slmllar Lo a hlgh veloclLy reenLry vehlcle from an lC8M sLrlke excepL
LhaL Lhe warnlng Llme for Lhe LargeLed counLry would be dlmlnlshed Lo a small amounL of
seconds lnsLead of upwards of 30 mlnuLes lurLher advanLages lnclude reduced rlsk Lo frlendly
Lroops as none are puL ln harms way 1hls would noL be Lhe case lf a speclal operaLlons force
for lnsLance was lnserLed ln counLry Lo desLroy Lhe same groundbased counLerspace
capablllLy llnally lL avolds Lhe rlsk of sendlng a frlendly alrcrafL over hosLlle LerrlLory ln order Lo
bomb Lhe LargeL 1he 8Anu sLudy menLloned above descrlbes Lhese advanLages as access
reach and prompLness Access means access Lo a LargeL wlLhouL pollLlcal consLralnLs on
overfllghL or passage of Lhe plaLform carrylng Lhe weapon and reach refers Lo Lhe ablllLy Lo
engage a broader perhaps global range of LargeLs Lhan oLher weapons can"86 rompLness
refers Lo Lhe responslveness of Lhe spacebased asseL as opposed Lo a LerresLrlalbased asseL
LhaL could Lake a much longer perlod of Llme Lo be ln poslLlon Lo sLrlke a LargeL87 Concluslons
1he med|um of a|r became a med|um of warfare dur|ng Wor|d War I A|rpower was used |n a||
four pr|mary m|ss|on areas of force app||cat|on force enhancement contro| and support
and |ed to Wor|d War I be|ng ca||ed the f|rst a|r war "As Wor|d War I prov|ded the eff|cacy of
a|rpower as a va|uab|e too| for future conf||ct the u|f War seems to have proved the
eff|cacy of space power as a v|ab|e arm of future m|||tary operat|ons"88 nowever |n the f|rst
space war space forces were on|y operat|ve |n space support and force enhancement and
were not equ|pped to perform the m|ss|ons of space contro| and space force app||cat|on
1oday these two m|ss|on areas st||| |ack resources and po||t|ca| support Adversar|es have
eva|uated Amer|ca's advantageous ut|||zat|on of space from forward and have p|ans to
negate that advantage W|th the current demonstrated threat to US space systems the two
m|ss|on areas of space contro| and space force app||cat|on need to be fu||y embraced No
|onger can the Un|ted States get by w|th unenforceab|e (and end|ess|y debated) |ega|
protect|ons or pass|ve defenses such as sh|e|d|ng and harden|ng Space |s a med|um of
warfare and the h|ghground must be defended and must be ut|||zed to defend the Un|ted
States |ts a|||es and |ts |nterests









A1 Arms Contro|$CCC C

Newest ev proves Ch|nese ASA1 tests aren't defens|ve and they w||| never subm|t to
arms contro| treat|es |t's on|y a front to [ust|fy cont|nued weapon|zat|on
ertz 3$ naLlonal securlLy edlLor and a naLlonal securlLy and lnvesLlgaLlve reporLer for 1he WashlngLon 1lmes (2011 8lll lnslde Lhe
8lng" WashlngLon 1lmes hLLp//wwwwashlngLonLlmescom/news/2011/mar/9/lnsldeLherlng846232496/)
Chlna used a LopsecreL SC19 anLlsaLelllLe (ASA1) mlsslle ln a LesL lasL year agalnsL a LargeL mlsslle as
parL of a mlsslledefense sysLem LhaL remalns shrouded ln secrecy 1he ASA1 mlsslle was flred agalnsL a new
medlumrange mlsslle and deLalls were dlsclosed ln a SLaLe ueparLmenL cable made publlc recenLly by WlklLeaks LhaL lncluded an ouLllne of a
dlplomaLlc proLesL noLe Lo 8el[lng abouL boLh Chlnese weapons programs 1he cable provldes Lhe flrsL deLalled uS
assessmenL of whaL defense offlclals say ls a ma[or sLraLeglc advancemenL ln Chlna's mlllLary
bulldup lL reveals LhaL Chlna's anLlsaLelllLe sysLem was developed for use noL only agalnsL
saLelllLes buL ls parL of a larger sLraLeglc mlsslledefense sysLem uefense SecreLary 8oberL M
CaLes offered Lo hold sLraLeglc Lalks wlLh Chlna on mlsslle defenses as well as space nuclear and
cyberweapons durlng a recenL vlslL Lo 8el[lng 1he offer was rebuffed by Chlna's defense mlnlsLer who sald only LhaL
lL would be sLudled uefense offlclals and prlvaLe speclallsLs sald Lhe cable furLher hlghllghLs offlclal
Chlnese governmenL dupllclLy ln opposlng uS mlsslle defenses and promoLlng an lnLernaLlonal
agreemenL Lo llmlL weapons ln space aL Lhe same Llme lL ls secreLly worklng on lLs own space
weapons and mlsslle defense programs

Code of Conduct fa||s emp|r|ca||y proven
fa|tzgraff et a| (8oberL hu and rofessor of lnL SecurlLy SLudles [ 1ufLs and resldenL [ Lhe llA Wllllam Cleave hu and
rofessor [ Mlssourl SLaLe llan 8erman v for ollcy [ Lhe Amerlcan lorelgn ollcy Councll klron Sklnner hu and lellow [ Lhe Poover
lnsLlLuLlon Penry Cooper Chalrman [ Plgh lronLler P 8aker Sprlng 8esearch lellow [ PerlLage !acquelyn uavls hu and LxecuLlve v [
llA Mead 1readwell Senlor lellow [ lnsLlLuLe of Lhe norLh uanlel llne hu and 8esearch AssoclaLe [ Ml1 8oberL 1urner rofessor aL
unlverslLy of vlrglnla 8oberL !asLrow hu and Chalrman of Lhe 8oard [ Lhe Marshall lnsLlLuLe !u Wllllams vlce Admlral of Lhe uSn 1homas
karako ulrecLor of rograms [ ClaremonL lnsLlLuLe aul Weyrlch CLC [ Lhe lree Congress 8esearch and LducaLlon loundaLlon 8rlan
kennedy resldenL [ ClaremonL lnsLlLuLe Lowell Wood hu and vlslLlng lellow [ Poover !eff kueLer resldenL [ Lhe Marshall lnsLlLuLe
Lrlc LlchL Senlor AnalysL [ Lhe lree Congress 8esearch and LducaLlon loundaLlon 8 uanlel McMlchael SecreLary [ Lhe CarLhage loundaLlon
and Lhe Sarah Scalfe loundaLlon 8eporL of Lhe lndependenL Worklng Croup on Mlsslle uefense Lhe Space 8elaLlonshlp Lhe 1wenLyllrsL
CenLury" repared by Lhe lnsLlLuLe for lorelgn ollcy Analysls" https$$wwwc|aremontorg$repos|tory$docL|b$22%|wg2pdf 1S)
In the postA8M 1reaty era the Un|ted States can and shou|d take severa| steps to assure |ts cont|nued
m|||tary and commerc|a| access to space |nc|ud|ng the dep|oyment of spacebased m|ss||e defense
|nterceptors Wh||e reaff|rm|ng the "peacefu| uses of space" requ|rement set forth |n the Cuter Space 1reaty Lhe unlLed
SLaLes should re[ecL efforLs Lo counLer lLs presenL advanLages ln space by agreemenLs LhaL
would furLher resLrlcL Lhe use of space Iurthermore the Un|ted States shou|d re[ect b||atera| or
mu|t||atera| efforts that wou|d have the tangent|a| effect of restr|ct|ng Amer|can space
act|v|t|es Cne examp|e |s the November 22 nague Code of Conduct (nCCC) s|gned by the Un|ted
States and kuss|a among others 1he kuss|ans however have a|ready contravened th|s
spec|f|c agreement by announc|ng that they wou|d no |onger prov|de advance not|ce of
ba|||st|c m|ss||e |aunches to other s|gnator|es of the nCCC 1he nCCC's ent|re|y |eg|t|mate purpose |s to m|n|m|ze the
consequences of a fa|se m|ss||e attack warn|ng by ca|||ng on member states to "exerc|se max|mum poss|b|e restra|nt" w|th respect to
ba|||st|c m|ss||e and space |aunch veh|c|e |aunches and prov|de other member states w|th advance warn|ng of such |aunches 1h|s
agreement however shou|d not be expanded to an |nterpretat|on that regu|ates space
|aunches to such an extent that |t |s app||ed to systems now be|ng des|gned to prov|de
"better faster cheaper" access to space



LA wr|t|ngs prove that d|p|omacy won't work
MacDona|d 8consulLanL on Lechnology and naLlonal securlLy pollcy managemenL [ 1he Councll on lorelgn 8elaLlons senlor
dlrecLor for sclence and Lechnology [ Lhe naLlonal SecurlLy Councll AsslsLanL ulrecLor of naLlonal SecurlLy [ Lhe WhlLe Pouse Cfflce 8SL ln
Aerospace Lnglneerlng [ rlnceLon unlverslLy MA ln Aerospace Lnglneerlng [ rlnceLon unlverslLy MA ln ubllc and lnLernaLlonal Affalrs
[ rlnceLon unlverslLy 8ruce Lhe Councll on lorelgn 8elaLlons Speclal 8eporL Chlna Space Weapons and uS SecurlLy" SepLember 2008
hLLp//wwwcfrorg/chlna/chlnaspaceweaponsussecurlLy/p16707 uavldk
Chlna ls posslbly seeklng a full space warflghLlng capablllLy and noL [usL a flnlLe deLerrence
posLure Powever LA wrlLlngs make clear whaL Chlnese dlplomacy does noL Lhe LA envlslons
confllcL ln space and ls preparlng for lL Accordlngly Lhe unlLed SLaLes needs Lo assess how robusL a
program of space offense Chlna plans CauLlon suggesLs Lhe unlLed SLaLes musL prepare lLself for Lhe
posslblllLy LhaL Chlna could soon have an arsenal of ASA1 weapons Lhough lL ls noL a foregone concluslon 1hls
uncerLalnLy compels Lhe unlLed SLaLes Lo hedge lLs rlsks buL carefully and noL ln such a way as Lo creaLe a self
fulfllllng prophecy lar more uS aLLenLlon and undersLandlng of Lhls lssue ls needed


1he C fa||s our adversar|es' |ntent|ons are not to coex|st peaceab|y but to
underm|ne US heg at a|| costs spec|f|ca||y the LA overwhe|ms any of the|r "Ch|na
peacefu|" args
8rown 8A lndlana unlverslLy MSc S 8a[araLnam School of lnLernaLlonal SLudles nanyang 1echnologlcal unlverslLy Slngapore
(Sprlng 1revor SofL ower and Space WeaponlzaLlon" Alr and Space ower !ournal)
erhaps Lhere remalns a bellef ln Lhe uS sLraLeglc communlLy LhaL Lhe deploymenL of uS
space weapons ls llkely Lo make space asseLslncludlng commerclal communlcaLlons and broadcasL saLelllLeseven
more vulnerable slnce no oLher counLry ls pursulng leL alone deploylng space aLLack weapons (16) Such
noLlons were shaLLered when Chlna conducLed lLs flrsL successful ASA1 LesL ln !anuary 2007 suggesLlng
LhaL lL had spenL many years developlng ASA1 capablllLles 1he unlLed SLaLesas well as Lhe resL of Lhe world for LhaL maLLer
should noL allow lLself Lo be duped 1he record shows LhaL alLhough offlclals ln Lhe Chlnese
CommunlsL arLy rall agalnsL mlllLary space as a LhreaL Lo peace and sLablllLy Lhe eoples LlberaLlon
Army busles lLself wlLh Lhe acqulslLlon of space weapons 1he noLlon LhaL Lhe unlLed SLaLes can
keep space from becomlng a shooLlng gallery by agreelng Lo a comprehenslve ban on space
weapons ls nalve (17) 1he hard LruLh ls LhaL as long as uS economlc and mlllLary power depends
on masslve complex and expenslve seLs of vulnerable space asseLs Lhe lncenLlve for any
poLenLlal foe Lo develop ways of aLLacklng Lhem remalns Loo greaL Lo be overcome by any
lnLernaLlonal agreemenL (18) lf however such an agreemenL can consLraln Lhe unlLed SLaLes from developlng and deploylng
effecLlve counLermeasures foes would have every reason Lo pressure WashlngLon lnLo llmlLlng lLs own acLlons (19) As space
Lechnology spreads Lhe lncenLlves for small and medlum sLaLes Lo seek spacewarfare
capablllLles lncrease and Lhe desLrucLlon of a ma[or uS saLelllLe would represenL boLh a
subsLanLlve and symbollc vlcLory over Lhe unlLed SLaLes (20) 1here ls Lherefore no quesLlon of wheLher Lo proceed
wlLh space weaponsonly a quesLlon of how Lo do so wlLh Lhe requlslLe pollLlcal sklll ln order Lo reLaln sofL power whlle expandlng hard power


kuss|a and Ch|na w||| cheat to get ahead |n tech capab|||t|es
8rown 8A lndlana unlverslLy MSc S 8a[araLnam School of lnLernaLlonal SLudles nanyang 1echnologlcal unlverslLy Slngapore
(Sprlng 1revor SofL ower and Space WeaponlzaLlon" Alr and Space ower !ournal)
Some people speak as lf Lhey belleve LhaL a counLry can choose wheLher Lo pursue naLlonal securlLy Lhrough arms or Lhrough arms conLrol (11)
8uL 8usslas lnLeresL ln bannlng space weapons ls moLlvaLed by a deslre Lo sLunL Lhe growLh of uS
mlllLary space programs ln order Lo buy Llme for coverLly advanclng lLs own spaceweapons
program and achlevlng Lechnologlcal parlLy 8ussla bases lLs opposlLlon Lo space weaponlzaLlon
noL on a scrupulous seL of prlnclples buL on sLraLeglc ob[ecLlves 1wo scholars conLend LhaL Lo
undersLand wheLher 8ussla could lndeed change lLs poslLlon on Lhe weaponlzaLlon of space we
need Lo go beyond offlclal sLaLemenLs and dlscusslon among 8usslan mlllLary experLs 1he
course of Lhe mlllLary space program ln 8ussla wlll be deLermlned prlmarlly by Lhe avallablllLy of
Lhe resources requlred Lo supporL Lhe program and by Lhe ablllLy of Lhe lndusLry and Lhe
mlllLary Lo manage developmenL pro[ecLs for Lhe mlllLary use of space (12)uesplLe Chlnas
repeaLed calls for a ban on all space weapons hlsLorlcal evldence suggesLs LhaL llLLle separaLes
Chlnese and 8usslan moLlvaLlons for such bans 8ecause a broad lnLerpreLaLlon of space
weapons would rule ouL almosL all uS mlsslle defense sysLems Chlnese offlclals who wanL Lo
llmlL uS mlsslle defense deploymenLs would advocaLe a ban LhaL used Lhls lnLerpreLaLlon (13)
lnLeresLlngly afLer Lhe CllnLon admlnlsLraLlon scrapped Lhe SLraLeglc uefense lnlLlaLlve ln 1993 Chlna redoubled lLs efforLs ln mlllLary space and
galned ground on Lhe unlLed SLaLes (14) 8y 1999 Chlnas LesL of a spacecrafL lnLended for manned fllghL demonsLraLed a lowLhrusL rockeL
propulslon sysLem LhaL could be used Lo make warheads maneuver Lo defeaL a 8Mu balllsLlc mlsslle defense sysLem (13)



A1 A8L C

Doesn't so|ve A8L |s too d|ff|cu|t to operate dur|ng t|mes of cr|ses and has poor
accuracy
IIA (lnsLlLuLe for lorelgn ollcy Analysls Sponsored by Lhe Amerlcan lorelgn ollcy Councll Lhe Marshall lnsLlLuLe PerlLage ClaremonL
Mlssourl SLaLe unlverslLy eL al lndependenL Worklng Croup on Mlsslle uefense Lhe Space 8elaLlonshlp Lhe 1wenLyllrsL CenLury's 2009
8eporL" hLLps//wwwclaremonLorg/reposlLory/docLlb/200901291_lwg2009pdf LMM)
neverLheless noLable loglsLlcal and operaLlonal problems and enemy counLermeasures could
dlmlnlsh Lhe lmpacL of alrborne lasers lor example A8L operaLlons durlng a crlsls or war wlll
depend on Lhe ablllLy Lo provlde relaLlve safeLy Lo Lhe alrcrafL vla proLecLlve escorL (slmllar Lo LhaL glven Lhe
Alrborne Warnlng and ConLrol SysLem (AWACS) and Lhe !olnL Survelllance 1argeL ALLack 8adar SysLem (!S1A8S) alrcrafL) and alr superlorlLy
WheLher an enemy would allow Lhls Lo happen maklng hls balllsLlc mlsslles more vulnerable or
have Lhe lncenLlve Lo launch Lhe mlsslles before A8Ls were deployed ls noL clear An adversary
could also elecL Lo walL ouL a crlsls bellevlng LhaL Lhe A8L fleeL could noL susLaln 24hour
paLrols for a proLracLed perlod AparL from Lhe exLenslve asseLs and supporL Leam needed for
proLecLlve escorL and alr superlorlLy ln order Lo remaln on sLaLlon for exLended lnLervals Lhe A8L would also
requlre nearby faclllLles for Lhe sLorage and producLlon of chemlcal laser fuel unlque malnLenance
capablllLles (such as for laser and beam conLrol and flre conLrol componenLs) and speclallzed ground supporL personnel Such a
supporL/loglsLlcs Lall could well resulL ln overfllghL baslng concerns and soverelgnLy lssues
AnoLher problem confronLlng Lhe A8L ls aLmospherlc Lurbulence whlch produces small
lrregular consLanLly movlng pockeLs of alr or cells" Lach cell has a denslLy and LemperaLure sllghLly dlfferenL from Lhe
average ln Lhe beam Slnce alr has a refracLlve lndex LhaL depends on denslLy and lL bends a beam of laser llghL by dlfferlng amounLs dependlng
on Lhe denslLy Lhe passage Lhrough Lhe LurbulenL aLmosphere Lends Lo send parLs of Lhe laser beam
ln dlfferenL dlrecLlons 1hls spreads Lhe laser beam and reduces lLs lnLenslLy weakenlng lLs
ablllLy Lo peneLraLe Lhe skln of Lhe mlsslle

A8L doesn't so|ve not enough range we need to shoot down m|ss||e |n boostphase
to deter conf||ct
D|nerman 8 (1aylor Space WrlLer Spacebased mlsslle defense and Lhe psychology of warfare" SepLember 8
hLLp//wwwLhespacerevlewcom/arLlcle/1203/1 LMM)
ln fuLure wars Lhose who are flghLlng agalnsL Lhe WesLLoday lran or norLh korea Lomorrow who knows?wlll
use balllsLlc mlsslles noL only Lo Lerrorlze enemy clvlllan populaLlons buL Lo bulld morale among
Lhelr own forces and people Mlsslle defense ls Lhe key Lo wlnnlng Lhls crlLlcal psychologlcal
baLLle As long as Lhelr mlsslles are belng shoL ouL of Lhe sky clalms LhaL Lhey are hurLlng Lhe
enemy and Lhus fllllng people's need for revenge can be shown Lo be uLLerly empLy 1hls however cannoL be
done wlLh Lermlnal phase defense weapons 1o hlL a mlsslle or a warhead LhaL ls descendlng
Lowards lLs LargeL may be a feaL of Lechnologlcal sklll buL lL does noLhlng Lo decrease Lhe emoLlonal
saLlsfacLlon LhaL comes from sLrlklng a haLed enemy Mldcourse lnLercepLors such as Lhe uS C8l or Lhe lsraell Arrow
are beLLer buL Lhe besL way Lo publlcly humlllaLe Lhose who are launchlng ScudLype mlsslles ls Lo shooL
Lhem down as soon afLer Lhey leave Lhe launch pad as posslble 1he only weapon now ln
developmenL LhaL wlllln Lheorybe able Lo do Lhls ls Lhe Alrborne Laser (A8L) whlch Lhe Mlsslle
uefense Agency plans Lo LesL nexL year 1hls ls lndeed a promlslng sysLem buL lL has lLs llmlLs lLs range ls accordlng Lo
unclasslfled reporLs abouL 300 kllomeLers and Lhe uS only plans Lo bulld aL mosL seven alrcrafL lf Lhe goal
ls Lo prevenL Lhe enemy from uslng lLs mlsslle aLLacks Lo bulld lLs own slde's morale and Lhus
lengLhen Lhe war anoLher soluLlon musL be found Spacebased lnLercepLors such as a new verslon of
Lhe 8rllllanL ebbles program LhaL was canceled ln 1993 could ln comblnaLlon wlLh space and groundbased sensors knock down
mlsslles of Lhls Lype ln Lhe boosL phase SlgnlflcanLly Lhey would do so over Lhe launchlng
counLry's own LerrlLory and aL leasL some of Lhe clLlzens would wlLness Lhe desLrucLlon of Lhelr
leader's vengeance weapons 1hls news would spread Lhrough word of mouLh 1hls mlghL be
one of Lhe keys Lo undermlnlng Lhelr wlll Lo make war and help shorLen Lhe confllcL

A8L |s a fa||ure our ev|dence assumes the newest tests
Wo|f (!lm 8euLers Alrborne laser falls 2
nd
shooLdown LesL ln a row" CcL 21 hLLp//wwwreuLerscom/arLlcle/2010/10/21/usmlsslle
usalaserlduS18L69k38Z20101021 LMM)
(8euLers) A converLed 8oelng Co 747 equlpped wlLh a powerful laser falled Lo shooL down a mock enemy
balllsLlc mlsslle Lhe enLagons Mlsslle uefense Agency sald on 1hursday Lhe sysLems second boLched fllghL LesL ln
a row
rellmlnary lndlcaLlons are LhaL Lhe socalled Alrborne Laser 1esL 8ed Lracked Lhe LargeLs exhausL plume
buL dld noL hand off Lo a second acLlve Lracklng sysLem as a prelude Lo flrlng Lhe hlghpowered chemlcal laser
sald 8lchard Lehner an MuA spokesman 1he LranslLlon dldnL happen he sald 1herefore Lhe hlghenergy laslng dld
noL occur
8oelng produces Lhe alrframe and ls Lhe pro[ecLs prlme conLracLor whlle norLhrop Crumman supplles Lhe hlghenergy laser and Lockheed
MarLln Corp has been developlng Lhe beam and flreconLrol sysLems uefense SecreLary 8oberL CaLes scaled back Lhe program lnLo a research
experlmenL lasL year AbouL $4 bllllon has gone lnLo lL slnce Lhe 8oelngled Leam won Lhe conLracL for lL ln 1996 1he sysLem ls deslgned Lo
focus a superheaLed baskeLballslzed beam on a pressurlzed parL of a boosLlng mlsslle long enough Lo cause lL Lo fall
lor flscal 2011 LhaL began CcLober 1 resldenL 8arack Cbama asked Congress for $986 mllllon for all of Lhe uefense ueparLmenLs dlrecLed
energy research lncludlng Lhe Alrborne Laser 1esL 8ed revlously Lhe flylng raygun had been under developmenL as a poLenLlal parL of a
layered uS balllsLlc mlsslle shleld agalnsL weapons LhaL could be flred by counLrles such as lran and norLh korea enLagon planners lnlLlally
envlsaged uslng Lhe alrcrafL Lo shooL down balllsLlc mlsslles near Lhelr launch pads 1he reallLy ls LhaL you would need a
laser someLhlng llke 20 Lo 30 Llmes more powerful Lhan Lhe chemlcal laser ln Lhe plane rlghL
now Lo be able Lo geL any (safe) dlsLance from Lhe launch slLe Lo flre CaLes Lold Lhe Pouse of
8epresenLaLlves ApproprlaLlons uefense subcommlLLee lasL year afLer scallng lL back


C ||nks to arms race
C|aremont Inst|tute (MlsslleLhreaLcom run by Lhe ClaremonL lnsLlLuLe WlklLeaks AnLlSaLelllLe ConLesL 8eLween uS
Chlna" leb 7 hLLp//wwwmlsslleLhreaLcom/archlves/ld7404/deLallasp LMM)
ln lebruary of 2008 seasoned naLlonal securlLy observers mused LhaL Lhe shooLdown of a malfuncLlonlng saLelllLe by
Lhe uS was a dlrecL response ln klnd (really a demonsLraLlon of comparable capablllLy) Lo Lhe slmllar dlsplay of
capablllLy by Chlna a llLLle over a year earller Wlklleaks has now conflrmed Lhose muslngs 1he uS ob[ecLed lmmedlaLely and
sLrenuously Lo Lhe Chlnese shooLdown of a saLelllLe more Lhan 20 years afLer Lhe uS had conducLed any slmllar exerclse 8efore shooLlng
down lLs own saLelllLe ln 2008 Lhe uS noLlfled 8el[lng LhaL any lnLerference wlLh spacebased uS asseLs
could resulL ln a wlde range of responses lncludlng Lhe use of mlllLary force 1he Chlnese have
clLed Lhe developmenL of a uS alrborne laser as parLlal lmpeLus for Lhe aggresslve ASA1 LesL An
alrborne laser LhaL can lnLercepL mlsslles ln Lhelr boosL phase whlle Lhey are ln alrspace over
Lhe counLry LhaL launched Lhem ls consldered Lo be an offenslve mlsslle defense sysLem by
Lhe Chlnese






A1 LM Weapon C

LM's don't so|ve they're s|ow |naccurate have |ow range and aren't versat||e and
destroy our own sate|||tes as we||
Summers 2k (1homas Ma[or of Lhe uSAl PCW lS uS SACL CWL8 !LCA8ulZLu 8? An AuvL8SA8?'S LxLCl1A1lCn
1LCPnCLCClCAL uLvLLCMLn1S LMLC?MLn1 Anu LnCACLMLn1 Cl LASL8 An1lSA1LLLl1L WLACnS?" Alr Command and SLaff College [
Alrforce unlverslLy Aprll hLLp//wwwauafmll/au/awc/awcgaLe/acsc/00172pdf LMM)
ln addlLlon Lo nuclear bomb LM sources convenLlonal LM devlces bullL wlLh exploslvely drlven hlghpower mlcrowave Lechnology produce
less lnLense shorL nanosecond bursLs composed prlmarlly of mlcrowaves wlLh frequencles from 100 MPz Lo 100 CPz6 A convenLlonal LM
devlce can be consLrucLed uslng a compacL pulsed power source (glgawaLL range) an elecLrlcal energy converLer and a hlghpower mlcrowave
devlce such as a vlrcaLor" (vlrLual caLhode osclllaLor)7 1he convenLlonal LM devlce offers aL leasL Lwo advanLages over nuclear exploslon
drlven LMs llrsL a convenLlonal LM devlce can be Lrlggered ln a shorLer amounL of Llme and can puL more ouLpuL energy lnLo Lhe
mlcrowave frequencles above 100 MPz Lhan a nuclear exploslon generaLed LM Slnce many modern elecLronlcs operaLe ln Lhese mlcrowave
ranges Lhe convenLlonal drlven LM can lnfllcL greaL damage Second a convenLlonal LM devlce can be deslgned Lo focus Lhe LM ln a
parLlcular dlrecLlon whereas a nuclear exploslon drlven LM emlLs radlaLlon ln all dlrecLlons Powever even a focused LM
produced by a convenLlonal devlce would probably only have leLhal ranges of hundreds Lo
Lhousands of meLers of course dependlng on Lhe sLrengLh of Lhe power source and aLmospherlc absorpLlon8
ln evaluaLlng nuclear exploslon and convenLlonal drlven LM weapons agalnsL saLelllLes one can noLe several
observaLlons uue Lo Lhe lndlscrlmlnaLe naLure of nuclear exploslon drlven LMs Lhese weapons would
mosL llkely only be approprlaLe ln LoLal war slLuaLlons of naLlonal survlval because Lhey offer no
flexlblllLy9 Cn Lhe oLher hand convenLlonal drlven LM weapons offer some flexlblllLy slnce Lhe LM can be somewhaL focused ln a small
reglon 8oLh LM weapons have moderaLe responslveness and Llmellness slnce Lhey could be launched on demand (lf
dellvered by some Lype of lnLerconLlnenLal balllsLlc mlsslle (lC8M)) and posslbly reach enemy saLelllLes ln less Lhan 30
mlnuLes10 uue Lo Lhe dlfflculLy ln almlng or polnLlng Lhe LM bursL ln a speclflc dlrecLlon LM
weapons are noL very preclse Slnce LM weapons can slmulLaneously damage Lhe deslred
LargeL and frlendly saLelllLes Lhese weapons have low selecLlve leLhallLy ln addlLlon because
Lhe LM effecL ls hlghly slLuaLlonal dependenL such as whaL Lype of elecLrlcal or elecLronlc
equlpmenL ls aLLacked Lhe damage of an engagemenL ls unpredlcLable ln sum llmlLed
flexlblllLy poor preclslon and unpredlcLable leLhallLy makes LM weapons poor ASA1 weapons
for less Lhan LoLal war


A1 M|crowave Weapon C

M|crowaves are comparat|ve|y worse than |aser ASA1s they're unab|e to h|t most
targets are bu|ky and have |ow prec|s|on
Summers 2k (1homas Ma[or of Lhe uSAl PCW lS uS SACL CWL8 !LCA8ulZLu 8? An AuvL8SA8?'S LxLCl1A1lCn
1LCPnCLCClCAL uLvLLCMLn1S LMLC?MLn1 Anu LnCACLMLn1 Cl LASL8 An1lSA1LLLl1L WLACnS?" Alr Command and SLaff College [
Alrforce unlverslLy Aprll hLLp//wwwauafmll/au/awc/awcgaLe/acsc/00172pdf LMM)
A hlghpowered mlcrowave (PM) devlce also produces elecLromagneLlc radlaLlon Lravelllng aL Lhe speed of llghL LhaL
could be used as a weapon agalnsL saLelllLes AlLhough noL as sLrong as nuclear exploslon drlven LM weapons PM
weapons creaLe a narrower band of mlcrowave elecLromagneLlc radlaLlon (MPz Lo CPz range) by coupllng fasL hlgh energy pulsed power
supplles Lo speclally deslgned mlcrowave anLenna arrays11 Mlcrowaves have Lhe advanLage of vlrLually unlmpeded Lransmlsslon Lhrough Lhe
aLmosphere (allweaLher capablllLy) and slgnlflcanL damage capablllLy Lo modern elecLronlcs12 unforLunaLely PM devlces are
llneofslghL weapons meanlng Lhe PM sysLem musL see" Lhelr LargeL Lo engage ConLrary Lo mosL
LM weapons PM sysLems can alm and dlrecL beams deflned by Lhe shape of Lhelr mlcrowave anLenna array buL may requlre
an anLenna or array of phased anLennas wlLh an area measured ln acres13 Powever even aL low powers
PM weapons are capable of dlsrupLlng or [ammlng communlcaLlons when polnLed aL adversary's recelvlng sLaLlons or plaLforms14 Also Lhe
beam dlameLers for PM weapons are several meLers and do noL requlre exLreme polnLlng and Lracklng accuracles Lo lnfllcL slgnlflcanL
damage13 LxLended dwell Llmes (Llme on LargeL) also make PM aLLracLlve ASA1 weapons
ln evaluaLlng PM weapons agalnsL saLelllLes several observaLlons are evldenL lf a spacebased PM sysLem were avallable Lhe allweaLher
characLerlsLlcs and speed of llghL dellvery would make Lhls weapon hlgh ln Llmellness and responslveness Powever due Lo several
slmllarlLles Lo nuclear exploslon drlven LM weapons and llneofslghL LargeLlng requlremenLs
PM weapons have low flexlblllLy and preclslon characLerlsLlcs !usL as wlLh LM weapons PM weapons
have unpredlcLable selecLlve leLhallLy ln sum llmlLed flexlblllLy poor preclslon and
unpredlcLable leLhallLy make PM weapons moderaLe ASA1 weapon candldaLes

A1 Nuc|ear art|c|e 8eam C

art|c|e beams are bad ASA1s unproven d|ff|cu|t to bu||d and operate and have
awfu| f|ex|b|||ty and |etha||ty
Summers 2k (1homas Ma[or of Lhe uSAl PCW lS uS SACL CWL8 !LCA8ulZLu 8? An AuvL8SA8?'S LxLCl1A1lCn
1LCPnCLCClCAL uLvLLCMLn1S LMLC?MLn1 Anu LnCACLMLn1 Cl LASL8 An1lSA1LLLl1L WLACnS?" Alr Command and SLaff College [
Alrforce unlverslLy Aprll hLLp//wwwauafmll/au/awc/awcgaLe/acsc/00172pdf LMM)
arLlcle beam weapons wheLher charged or neuLral depend on exoLlc Lechnology and have noL proven Lhelr full
capablllLles or usefulness as ASA1 weapons Weaponsclass parLlcle beams requlre mllllons of
volLs of elecLrlcal poLenLlal very powerful sLeerlng magneLs and long acceleraLlng Lunnels
CurrenL Lechnology acceleraLor devlces wlLh Lhese capablllLles welgh ln Lhe hundreds of Lons
and requlre large power sources Lo operaLe ln general parLlcle beams have Lhe poLenLlal Lo peneLraLe saLelllLes and
desLroy lnLernal sysLems such as elecLronlcs aL speeds approachlng Lhe speed of llghL16 LeL's examlne Lhe aLLrlbuLes of charged and neuLral
parLlcle beams as poLenLlal ASA1 weapons Charged parLlcle beams (C8) such as negaLlvely charged elecLrons or poslLlvely
charged proLons are noL necessarlly very useful weapons due Lo Lhelr naLural llmlLaLlons C8s cannoL Lravel Lhrough Lhe
aLmosphere and lnLo space due Lo lonlzaLlon and nuclear lnLeracLlons cannoL propagaLe for
any appreclable range (only a few kllomeLers) due Lo dlffuslon and cannoL be accuraLely polnLed due Lo
Lhe lnfluence of Lhe LarLh's magneLlc fleld17
Conversely neuLral (uncharged) parLlcle beams whlch cannoL be acceleraLed unless Lhey flrsL exlsL as a C8 ln an acceleraLor show more
promlse as ASA1 weapons A neuLral parLlcle beam (n8) weapon can produce a beam of neuLral aLomlc parLlcles by sub[ecLlng
hydrogen or deuLerlum gas Lo a large elecLrlcal charge18 1he elecLrlcal charge produces negaLlvely charged lons LhaL are acceleraLed Lhrough a
long vacuum Lunnel by a large elecLrlcal poLenLlal 1he elecLrons are Lhen sLrlpped from Lhe negaLlve lons aL Lhe end of Lhe Lunnel Lo make hlgh
speed neuLral aLomlc parLlcles LhaL form Lhe n8 1he n8 Lhen proceeds ln a sLralghL llne once Lhey've been acceleraLed and magneLlcally
polnLed [usL before neuLrallzaLlon ln Lhe acceleraLor Slnce Lhe n8 ls vlrLually lnvlslble and dlfflculL Lo deLecL beam conLrol ls challenglng 1he
n8 causes damage Lo lLs lnLended LargeL by dellverlng lLs klneLlc energy dlrecLly lnLo Lhe aLomlc and subaLomlc sLrucLure of Lhe LargeL heaLlng
and damaglng Lhe LargeL from wlLhln19 unforLunaLely n8s don'L propagaLe well Lhrough Lhe aLmosphere due Lo
nuclear lnLeracLlon effecLs beLween Lhe neuLral parLlcles and alr molecules buL Lhey mlghL achleve useful
weapon ranges ln space20 lor example Lhe beamexperlmenLaboard rockeL (8LA8) LesL conflrmed baslc parLlcle beam physlcs and posslble
weapons appllcaLlons Powever accordlng Lo Lhe pro[ecL managers aL Lhe Los Alamos naLlonal LaboraLory many englneerlng
challenges remaln21 uue Lo Lhe welghL slze power requlremenLs and lnherenL complexlLy of a
n8 weapon close evaluaLlon makes Lhls sysLem an unllkely candldaLe as an ASA1 weapon
Lven lf placed ln space Lhe Llmellness and responslveness of a n8 weapon would be low Lo
moderaLe as Lhe weapon walLed Lo see Lhe LargeL due Lo Lhe llneofslghL LargeL resLrlcLlons
n8s are only moderaLe ln flexlblllLy and selecLlve leLhallLy slnce Lhey can lnfllcL Lemporary Lo
permanenL damage Slnce n8s are sLrongly affecLed as Lhey pass Lhrough Lhe aLmosphere
preclse engagemenL would probably only be achlevable lf Lhe sysLem were space based and
engaged ln spaceLospace force appllcaLlons

D|sads
A1 Arms kace Inev|tab|e
1he space race |s here we've a|ready weapon|zed the cha||enge now |s ma|nta|n|ng
dom|nance
uereck A C|ark 1he CreaL Leap upward lmpllcaLlons of Chlnas 8lse as Lhe 1hlrd layer ln Lhe lourLh 8aLLlefleld for uS SecurlLy approved
by a commlLLee of ur S Mlchael avelec CA1 Carl CLls SchusLer uSn 8L1 SepL 18 2 a masLers paper presenLed aL Pawall aclflc
unlverslLy
lL ls lmperaLlve Lo undersLand LhaL Lhe US and Ch|na as a resulL of Lhelr currenL mlllLary space capablllLles have a|ready
entered |nto a wor|d of no retum Space has a|ready become m|||tar|zed and these
deve|opments cannot be un|nvented Slnce the US re||es so heav||y upon |ts sate|||te systems
and other space assets for |ts m|||tary operat|ons (as well as clvlllan/commerclal llvellhood) ask|ng the US
to s|mp|y g|ve up these capab|||t|es |s both |||og|ca| (on Chlnas parL) and unw|se from many stand
po|nts (economlcally mlllLarlly securlLywlse eLc) As such the quest|on that begs to be addressed |s how to
best ||m|t r|s|ng US vu|nerab|||t|es |n space |n the context of Ch|nese compet|t|on?
Deve|opment key the race |s here the quest|on |s w||| the US compete or fa|| beh|nd
uereck A C|ark 1he CreaL Leap upward lmpllcaLlons of Chlnas 8lse as Lhe 1hlrd layer ln Lhe lourLh 8aLLlefleld for uS SecurlLy approved
by a commlLLee of ur S Mlchael avelec CA1 Carl CLls SchusLer uSn 8L1 SepL 18 2 a masLers paper presenLed aL Pawall aclflc
unlverslLy
unLll Lhe Chlnese remove Lhe shroud of secrecy LhaL surround Lhelr space programs and Lhelr overa|| |ntent|ons |n space to a
|eve| of transparency deemed adequate by Wash|ngton the US |s forced to cont|nua||y p|an
for worstcase scenar|os and shape Lhelr space pollcy LhaL reflecLs Lhls reallLy Whlle the current US space po||cy
requ|res much |mprovement |n terms of conLenL (lL lacks any real dlscusslon of deLerrence) and overall posLure (lL comes
off as LhreaLenlng) lL ls reflecLlve of a sLraLeglc loglc LhaL Chlnese declslons and acLlons regardlng space have helped creaLe ln any case
Ch|nas proven ASA1 capab|||ty and the|r act|onab|e asserted |ntent|ons h|gh||ght the need for
a |ongtenn and fundamenta| change |n the way the US approaches space ln acknowledglng LhaL Lhe
US no |onger en[oys a monopo|y of power ln space and LhaL th|s doma|n w||| never be the peacefu|
sanctuary LhaL space arms conLrol advocaLes deslre the US must d|vers|fy how |t gamers and d|str|butes
space |nfomat|on and seek more effect|ve ways to ||m|t US space vu|nerab|||t|es A sh|ft
towards smaller more moblle and f|ex|b|e d|str|buted capab|||t|es |ncreased redundancy of sate|||tes
wlLh a rapldlaunch capaclLy and a |ayered su|te of |ntegrated defens|ve techn|ques |nto f|e|ded space
assets wou|d reduce |ncent|ves for adversar|a| attacks on uS space sysLems and Lhelr ablllLy Lo LargeL Lhose
sysLems Investments such as these wou|d potent|a||y offer the most benef|t to the US even
when compared to offens|ve capab|||t|es wh|ch Ch|na perce|ves as |nherent|y threaten|ng
A1 Arms kace No ro||f
M|ss||e Defense does not cause arms race or pro||ferat|on
Independent Work|ng roup(cochalred by ur 8oberL falLzgraff resldenL of Lhe lnsLlLuLe of lorelgn ollcy Analysls (llA) aL 1ufLs
unlverslLy2007(CollecLlvereporL/sLudy) mlsslle defense and Lhe space relaLlonshlp and Lhe 21sL cenLury"2
hLLp//wwwmlsslleLhreaLcom/reposlLory/docllb/lWCreporLpdf
Nowhere |s the rat|ona|e and [ust|f|cat|on for the MAD cu|ture of hostage ho|d|ng stronger
than |n the dec|arat|on that m|ss||e defense |s provocat|ve and destab|||z|ng Amer|can m|ss||e
defense w||| cause an arms race w||| cause nuc|ear pro||ferat|on |n such p|aces as North korea
and Iran w||| threaten the m|||tary "|ntegr|ty" of Ch|na and kuss|a and thereby cha||enge
the|r p|aces |n the wor|d and w||| as a consequence be destab|||z|ng to wor|d peace Amer|ca
must not be a||owed to acqu|re m|ss||e defense 1he f|aw |n these v|ews |s that they have
||tt|e or no bas|s |n fact 1hey are |nstead based on ph||osophy emot|on and for some
po||t|ca| advantage where fact |tse|f |s |rre|evant 1he facL LhaL Lhere ls no real basls ln facL ls obvlous and Lo deny
Lhls ls clear evldence of Lhe dogmaLlc naLure of mlsslle defense opponenLs who use Lhese argumenLs 1o beg|n w|th arms races
stem from compet|t|on for offens|ve weapons and wh||e |t |s true that some of these are de
s|gned |n part to overcome someone's defenses the converse that no defenses breed no
offens|ve weapons |s w|thout h|stor|ca| bas|s Indeed th|s propos|t|on |s supported by
|rrefutab|e ev|dence that the Un|ted States never has had m|ss||e defenses for |ts popu|at|on
much |ess |ts m|||tary |nsta||at|ons (save for se|ect|ve use of ||m|ted "po|nt" defense such as
the atr|ot) 8ut that rea||ty has not prevented e|ther nuc|ear pro||ferat|on or nuc|ear arms
bu||dups |t has |n a|| probab|||ty been the reverse 1he ev|dence a|so |s c|ear that the past
forty years most espec|a||y the |ast decade have seen re|ent|ess bu||dups and bo|d moves to
spread the use of nuc|ear and other weapons of mass destruct|on as w|tness evo|v|ng events
|n kuss|a Ch|na North korea and Iran (dlscussed elsewhere ln Lhls reporL) Cne of the few t|mes there has
been a s|gn|f|cant s|ow|ng of momentum was |n the br|ef per|od 19831993 wh|ch was the he|ght
of m|ss||e defense deve|opment |n the Un|ted States
No ev|dence that m|ss||e defense |s destab|||z|ng
Independent Work|ng roup(cochalred by ur 8oberL falLzgraff resldenL of Lhe lnsLlLuLe of lorelgn ollcy Analysls (llA) aL 1ufLs
unlverslLy2007(CollecLlvereporL/sLudy) mlsslle defense and Lhe space relaLlonshlp and Lhe 21sL cenLury"2
hLLp//wwwmlsslleLhreaLcom/reposlLory/docllb/lWCreporLpdf
At th|s po|nt the s||ver of fact d|sso|ves |nto m|ss||e defense ob[ect|ons that are based on
ph||osoph|ca| |deo|og|ca| or po||t|ca| be||efs and resu|t|ng emot|ons where factua| ev|dence |s
|arge|y |rre|evant 1here |s no known ev|dence even to suggest that an arms race or |nstab|||ty
occurs s|mp|y because a nonbe|||gerent nat|on chooses to erect defenses aga|nst offens|ve
weapons 1hls quesLlon was debaLed hoLly ln Lhe 1930s when 8rlLlsh paclflsLs and appeasers ob[ecLed vlolenLly Lo Lhe ldea of bulldlng Lhe
5pltflte and fleldlng anLlalrcrafL weapons agalnsL Lhe growlng armada of PlLler's bombers and flghLers 8uL as delay was heaped upon delay and
as PlLler's alr and land forces grew and grew and sLarLed Lhelr assaulL on Lhelr Luropean nelghbors lL flnally dawned on Lhe 8rlLs LhaL wlLh or
wlLhouL Lhe 5pltflte and anLlalrcrafL weapons PlLler was ouL Lo geL Lhem So 8rlLaln husLled and barely survlved 1here ls a clear lesson here A
wouldbe aggressor sLaLe wlll ob[ecL Lo anoLher naLlon wanLlng Lo defend lLself for nonbelllgerenL reasons malnly because lL could lmpede
whaLever deslgns Lhe aggressor may have regardlng Lhe oLher naLlon 1hose nat|ons who w|sh Amer|ca no harm w|||
not ob[ect to |ts m|ss||e defenses 1hose nat|ons and the|r sympath|zers who wou|d ||ke to
marg|na||ze the Un|ted States w||| |ndeed ob[ect C|ear|y |t |s not factua| ev|dence but
ph||osoph|ca| and |deo|og|ca| be||efs coup|ed w|th po||t|ca| agendas that are used to support
the dec|arat|on that m|ss||e defense |s provocat|ve and destab|||z|ng lL ls Lhe apex of paclflsL LhoughL ln
LhaL lL seeks Lo paclfy Amerlcans agalnsL Lhe ldea of defendlng Lhemselves from mlsslle aLLacks lL ls a declaraLory manLra LhaL even afLer flfLy
years sLlll plays heavlly upon Lhe conLlnulng effecLs of Lhe Lwo posLWWll Amerlcan complexes Lhe sLlllllngerlng unease abouL uslng Lhe
bomb" and Lhe sLlllgrowlng dlsllke of belng dlsllked whlch comblne Lo creaLe a chronlc oversenslLlvlLy abouL how Amerlcans Lhlnk of
Lhemselves as goodversusbad acLors for Lhe beLLer good of manklnd"

A1 Arms kace S8NMD So|ves
Space Advancement so|ves an arms race
ur Lverett C uolman rofessor of ComparaLlve MlllLary SLudles aL Lhe uS Alr lorce's School of Advanced Alr and Space SLudles (SAASS)
Pls focus ls on lnLernaLlonal relaLlons
1oward a uS Crand SLraLegy ln Space ur LvereLL uolman ur eLer Pays and ur karl Mueller March 10 26
noneLheless we have a dlfferenL sysLem Loday and as kar| has po|nted out |t may be that |f the Un|ted States
were to un||atera||y m|||tar|ze space and l am noL advocaLlng LhaL necessarlly buL lL |s an opt|on that |t cou|d
|n fact prevent an arms race 1he tr||||ons of do||ars that wou|d have to be spent to d|s|odge
the Un|ted States from space |f |t were to qu|ck|y se|ze contro| of Lhe lowearLh orblL m|ght be seen
as not worthwh||e Lo anoLher sLaLe Powever |f we wa|t flfLeen or LwenLy years unt|| a state |s ab|e to
cha||enge the Un|ted States |n space Lhen we w||| have a space race 8y putt|ng weapons |n
space to enhance |ts m|||tary capab|||t|es the Un|ted States today |s say|ng to the wor|d that |n
th|s per|od of Amer|can hegemony |t |s not go|ng to wa|t for prob|ems to deve|op overseas unLll
Lhey bubble over lnLo lLs area of lnLeresL and Lhen masslvely and forcefully flx LhaL problem no 1he Amer|can way of war
today based on prec|s|on and on space capab|||t|es |s to engage ear|y us|ng |ess force us|ng
more prec|se force and more dead|y force |n a spec|f|c area buL wlLh far less collaLeral damage 1haL ls Lhe new
Amerlcan way of war and we really cannoL geL ouL of lL
8u||d|ng weapons |n space prevents arms races and space wars
LvereLL Do|man AssoclaLe rofessor of ComparaLlve MlllLary SLudles aL Lhe uS Alr lorces School of Advanced Alr and Space SLudles 2006
SAlS 8evlew uS MlllLary 1ransformaLlon and Weapons ln Space" 26 SAlS 8evlew 261 (2006) 163173
Selzlng Lhe lnlLlaLlve and secur|ng |owLarth orb|t now wh||e the Un|ted States |s uncha||enged |n
space wou|d do much to stab|||ze the |nternat|ona| system and prevent an arms race |n
space 1he enhanced ab|||ty to deny any attempt by another nat|on to p|ace m|||tary assets |n
space and to read||y engage and destroy terrestr|a| ant|sate|||te capac|ty wou|d make the
poss|b|||ty of |argesca|e space war or m|||tary space races |ess ||ke|y noL more Why would a sLaLe expend
Lhe efforL Lo compeLe ln space wlLh a superpower LhaL has Lhe exLraordlnary advanLage of holdlng securely Lhe hlghesL ground aL Lhe Lop of Lhe
gravlLy well? So |ong as the contro|||ng state demonstrates a capaclLy and a w||| to use force to defend
|ts pos|t|on ln effecL expend|ng a sma|| amount of v|o|ence as needed to prevent a greater
conf|agrat|on |n the future the ||ke||hood of a future war |n space |s remote Moreover |f the
Un|ted States were w||||ng to dep|oy and use a m|||tary space force that ma|nta|ned effect|ve
contro| of space and dld so ln a way LhaL was percelved as Lough nonarblLrary and efflclenL such an act|on Lnd age 171
wou|d serve to d|scourage compet|ng states from f|e|d|ng oppos|ng systems Should Lhe unlLed SLaLes
use lLs advanLage Lo pollce Lhe heavens and allow unhlndered peaceful use of space by any and all naLlons for economlc and sclenLlflc
developmenL over Llme lLs conLrol of lowLarLh orblL could be vlewed as a global asseL and a publlc good ln much Lhe same way Lhe 8rlLlsh
malnLalned conLrol of Lhe hlgh seas enforclng lnLernaLlonal norms of lnnocenL passage and properLy rlghLs Lhe unlLed SLaLes could prepare
ouLer space for a longoverdue bursL of economlc expanslon
No L|nk Arms kace
NMD deve|opment emp|r|ca||y won't cause an arms raceand even |f |t d|d US
dom|nance prevents the |mpacts
kevln McLaugh||n naLlonal uefense lellow aL CSlS Pe commanded Lhe
squadron LhaL operaLes Lhe uS Clobal oslLlonlng SysLem saLelllLes and served as a
sLaff member on Lhe 8umsfeld Space Commlsslon Would Space8ased uefenses lmprove
SecurlLy?" 1he WashlngLon CuarLerly volume 23 number 3 Summer 22 pp 177191
Cbservers have noL yeL fully undersLood or analyzed anoLher posslble reallLy 1he current
str|k|ng d|spar|ty between the Un|ted States and a|| other countr|es ln economlc
Lechnologlcal and mlllLary endeavors p|aces extreme ||m|ts on most countr|es' ab|||t|es to
respond mean|ngfu||y Cld concerns that US advances |n m|ss||e defense or space wou|d
spawn undeslrable arms races may no |onger be va||d lor example the Un|ted States |s the
on|y nat|on capab|e of |mp|ement|ng and susLalnlng declslve m|||tary force on a g|oba| bas|s
1he war ln AfghanlsLan provlded a snapshoL of Lhls ablllLy 1he nat|on's deve|opment and use
of many capab|||t|esmodern alrpower longrange preclslon weapons command conLrol and
communlcaLlons and lnLelllgence and hlghly skllled soldlers sallors marlnes and alrmen
have drast|ca||y outpaced a|| other countr|es no oLher counLry could carry ouL Lhe mlsslon
LhaL Lhe unlLed SLaLes ls execuLlng ln AfghanlsLan Any oLher counLry or alllance such as Lhe
proposed 60000person Luropean 8apld 8eacLlon lorce performlng a slmllar mlsslon ln Lhe
near Lerm or ln Lhe mldLerm ls equally doubLful Lven more slgnlflcanLly ln Lhe currenL global
war on Lerrorlsm Lhe unlLed SLaLes ls worklng Lo lncrease Lhe scope of lLs capablllLles Lo
operaLe slmulLaneously ln several spoLs around Lhe world rlmarlly uS wealLh global
responslblllLles and naLlonal securlLy needs drlve Lhls reallLy 1he admlnlsLraLlon's l? 2003
defense budgeL requesL of $379 bllllon ls more Lhan slx Llmes larger Lhan LhaL of 8ussla Lhe
secondlargesL spender and more Lhan Lhe comblned spendlng of Lhe nexL 23 naLlons4 1hls
dlsparlLy creaLes lLs own dynamlc wlLh unlque quallLles one of whlch may be Lhe ellmlnaLlon of
Lhe lncenLlve for many naLlons even Lo Lry Lo compeLe decreaslng Lhe llkellhood LhaL uS
developmenLs wlll face LradlLlonal counLermeasures lor example Lhe 82 stea|th bomber
prov|des the Un|ted States w|th an uncha||enged m|||tary capab|||ty LhaL oLher naLlons would
have vlewed as desLablllzlng only a few years ago 1he alrplane can fly anywhere ln Lhe world
undeLecLed and can aLLack LargeLs Lhrough defenses LhaL offlclals prevlously LhoughL were
lmpeneLrable et th|s revo|ut|onary capab|||ty has not g|ven r|se to a race to bu||d stea|th
bombers nor has lL resulLed ln a huge defenslve lnvesLmenL by Lhe Chlnese Lhe 8usslans or
Lhe Luropeans Lo develop Lechnology Lo counLer lL
Arms kace Inev|tab|e
USCh|na space race com|ng
Wllllam C Marte| professor of national security affairs at the Naval War College in Rhode sland. And Toshi
osh|hara,a doctoral candidate at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, and a research
fellow at the nstitute for Foreign Policy Analysis in Massachusetts.AuLumn 23 AverLlng a SlnouS Space 8ace" 1he
WashlngLon CuarLerly volume 26 number 4 ro[ecL Muse
hLLp//muse[huedu/[ournals/washlngLon_quarLerly/v026/264marLelhLml
1hls prevalllng lndlfference however rlsks overlooklng Lhe longerLerm consequences of
Chlna's growlng space power and more dangerously Lhe poLenLlal colllslon of uS and Chlnese
lnLeresLs ln space Irom Ch|na's perspect|ve the Un|ted States' se|fappo|nted guard|ansh|p of
space |s pre sumptuous and represents a genu|ne cha||enge to Ch|na's nat|ona| secur|ty
concerns Ior the Un|ted States Ch|na's extens|on |nto space symbo||zes |ts amb|t|ons to
cha||enge US nat|ona| secur|ty ueeply seaLed mutua| susp|c|ons are ev|dent ln boLh
counLrles' sLraLeglc assessmenLs as Lhe conLours of poLenLlal sLraLeglc compeLlLlon beLween
WashlngLon and 8el[lng emerge ln essence both s|des agree that the other represents a
cha||enge A|though th|s potent|a| c|ash of |nterests |s not yet suff|c|ent|y severe Lo be vlslble
Lo casual observers the Un|ted States and Ch|na are on the thresho|d of a space race that
cou|d rad|ca||y |nf|uence |nternat|ona| secur|ty

US w||| enter the space race to protect |ts secur|ty and economy
Wllllam C Marte| professor of national security affairs at the Naval War College in Rhode sland. And Toshi
osh|hara,a doctoral candidate at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, and a research
fellow at the nstitute for Foreign Policy Analysis in Massachusetts.AuLumn 23 AverLlng a SlnouS Space 8ace" 1he
WashlngLon CuarLerly volume 26 number 4 ro[ecL Muse
hLLp//muse[huedu/[ournals/washlngLon_quarLerly/v026/264marLelhLml
ConvenLlonal wlsdom holds LhaL space |s so v|ta| to nat|ona| secur|ty and econom|c prosper|ty
that the Un|ted States w||| do whatever |t takes to protect |ts ab|||ty to use space 1hls
raLlonale was enshr|ned ln an lnfluenLlal reporL lssued ln !anuary 2001 by a bluerlbbon
commlsslon on space1 headed by Dona|d kumsfe|d before he became secreLary of defense
whlch sLrongly advocaLed greaLer proLecLlon for uS space asseLs 1he 8umsfeld Commlsslon
asserLed LhaL "the secur|ty and econom|c we|| be|ng of the Un|ted States and |ts a|||es and
fr|ends depend on the nat|on's ab|||ty to operate successfu||y |n space 1o be able Lo
contr|bute to peace and stab|||ty |n a dlsLlncLly dlfferenL buL sLlll dangerous and comp|ex g|oba|
env|ronment the Un|ted States needs to rema|n at the forefront |n space techno|og|ca||y
and operat|ona||y as we have ln Lhe alr on land and aL sea"2 lurLhermore Lhe reporL argued
LhaL the present extent of US dependence on space the rap|d pace at wh|ch th|s
dependence |s |ncreas|ng and the vu|nerab|||t|es |t creates a|| demand that US nat|ona|
secur|ty space |nterests be recogn|zed as a top nat|ona| secur|ty pr|or|ty"3

A1 Arms kace S8NMD So|ves
US must be f|rst to space on|y way to check back arms race
Mue||er 3 senlor pollLlcal sclenLlsL aL Lhe 8Anu speclallzes ln research relaLed Lo mlllLary and naLlonal securlLy sLraLegy parLlcularly coerclon
and deLerrence CorporaLlon (karl 1oLem and 1aboo" hLLp//wwwgwuedu/spl/asseLs/docs/SecurlLy_Space_volumellnalpdf)
1he proweaponlzaLlon perspecLlve LhaL generally appears leasL exLreme Lhough lL ls noL necessarlly Lhe one LhaL shares Lhe mosL common
ground wlLh space sancLuary Lheory ls LhaL of Lhe space racers 1hese are more or less relucLanL space weaponlzaLlon advocaLes who may
accepL LhaL sancLuary ls deslrable ln Lhe absLracL buL who belleve LhaL space weapon|zat|on |s |nev|tab|e and LhaL th|s
makes |t |mperat|ve for the Un|ted States to |ead the way |n the deve|opment and
dep|oyment of space weapons 8 1he space racer perspect|ve |s shared by many |nc|ud|ng
both academ|c theor|sts who are attracted to restra|nt |n armament but pess|m|st|c about |ts
prospects and m|||tary |eaders who are re|uctant to see defense resources d|verted from
other areas |nto space weapons but who are s|m||ar|y skept|ca| about the chances of
avo|d|ng th|s 19 8ecause Lhe Lhesls LhaL space weaponlzaLlon ls lnevlLable ls Lled Lo many of Lhe proweaponlzaLlon perspecLlves Lhe
nexL secLlon of Lhls paper wlll examlne lL ln some deLall and Lhe presenL dlscusslon wlll focus slmply on lLs lmpllcaLlons lor space racers the
most |mportant cons|derat|on w|th respect to space weapons |s that the Un|ted States shou|d
not a||ow other countr|es to surpass or even to r|va| |t |n th|s arena of m|||tary compet|t|on
8e|ng the |ead|ng space power may offer s|gn|f|cant m|||tary advantage or |t cou|d s|mp|y be
an |mportant source of nat|ona| prest|ge and |nternat|ona| po||t|ca| |nf|uence 2 In e|ther
case the Un|ted States must keep ahead of the pack and |n the end must be the f|rst state to
weapon|ze space for even |f that |s unp|easant |t w||| sure|y be better than be|ng the second
state to do so Moreover |f weapon|zat|on |s |nev|tab|e and |f |ead|ng the way |s |mperat|ve
any po||t|ca| costs assoc|ated w|th be|ng the f|rst state to v|o|ate the sanctuary of space w|||
have to be pa|d sooner or |ater and de|ay|ng w||| not avert hav|ng to pay the pr|ce
Space 8MD prevents arm rac|ng and |nstab|||ty your authors' arguments are unfounded theor|es
IIA 2 (lnsLlLuLe for lorelgn ollcy Analysls Sponsored by Lhe Amerlcan lorelgn ollcy Councll Lhe Marshall lnsLlLuLe PerlLage ClaremonL
Mlssourl SLaLe unlverslLy eL al lndependenL Worklng Croup on Mlsslle uefense Lhe Space 8elaLlonshlp Lhe 1wenLyllrsL CenLury's 2009
8eporL" hLLps//wwwclaremonLorg/reposlLory/docLlb/200901291_lwg2009pdf
Amer|can m|ss||e defense w||| cause an arms race w||| cause nuc|ear pro||ferat|on |n such
p|aces as North korea and Iran w||| threaten the m|||tary "|ntegr|ty" of Ch|na and kuss|a and
thereby cha||enge the|r p|aces |n the wor|d and w||| as a consequence be destab|||z|ng to
wor|d peace Amerlca musL noL be allowed Lo acqulre mlsslle defense 1hese are the screeds of a commun|ty of
m|ss||e defense opponents that da||y pepper the med|a and pub||c po||cy wor|ds 1hey have
been part of the nat|on's rhetor|ca| |andscape for over 4 years and for LhlrLy of Lhose years Lhese
pronouncemenLs were proLecLed and made valld by Lhe A8M 1reaLy's prohlblLlon of mlsslle defense 1hey have been repeaLed so ofLen for so
long LhaL for some Amerlcans Lhese uLLerances have become convenLlonal wlsdom LhaL carrles Lhe rlng of LruLh Lo be accepLed as a maLLer of
course wlLhouL challenge 1herefore Lhese argumenLs musL be Laken serlously unLll Lhe uS wlLhdrawal from Lhe LreaLy lL had been a loslng
proposlLlon Lo refuLe Lhem noL because Lhey are dlfflculL Lo refuLe buL because any serlous challenges Lo Lhem have been lrrelevanL WhaL
would be Lhe polnL of challenglng Lhe evlls" of mlsslle defense when Lhe A8M 1reaLy was ln place Lo prevenL mlsslle defense? WlLh Lhe LreaLy
gone Lhls changes kefutat|on shou|d be v|gorous|y pursued 1he f|aw |n these v|ews |s that they
have ||tt|e or no bas|s |n fact 1hey are |nstead based on ph||osophy and emot|on and for
some po||t|ca| advantage where facL lLself ls lrrelevanL 1he fact that there |s no rea| bas|s |n fact |s
obv|ous and to deny th|s |s c|ear ev|dence of the dogmat|c nature of m|ss||e defense
opponents who use these arguments 1o beg|n w|th arms races stem from compet|t|on for
offens|ve weapons and wh||e |t |s true that some arms races are des|gned |n part to overcome
someone's defenses the converse that the absence of defenses breeds the absence of
offens|ve weapons |s w|thout h|stor|ca| bas|s lndeed th|s propos|t|on |s supported by
|rrefutab|e ev|dence that the Un|ted States never has had m|ss||e defenses for |ts popu|at|on
much less lLs mlllLary lnsLallaLlons (save for selecLlve use of llmlLed polnL" defense such as Lhe aLrloL) 8uL LhaL reallLy has noL prevenLed
elLher nuclear prollferaLlon or nuclear arms bulldups lL has ln all probab|||ty been the reverse 1he ev|dence a|so |s
c|ear that the past 4 years most espec|a||y the |ast decade have seen re|ent|ess bu||dups
and bo|d moves to spread the use of nuc|ear and other weapons of mass destruct|on as
w|tness evo|v|ng events |n kuss|a Ch|na North korea and Iran (dlscussed elsewhere ln Lhls reporL) Cne
of the few t|mes there has been a s|gn|f|cant s|ow|ng of momentum was ln Lhe brlef perlod 198393
whlch was the he|ght of m|ss||e defense deve|opment |n the Un|ted States In other words |f
anyth|ng a cred|b|e m|ss||e defense even |n deve|opment stage |s much more ||ke|y to
he|p s|ow an arms race and d|scourage pro||ferat|on because |t ra|ses the costs and |owers the
chances of success for aggressor nat|ons or terror|st groups to try to f|nd ways to overwhe|m
an effect|ve m|ss||e defense system w|th the|r offens|ve weapons In th|s sense |t can become
a deterrent and thus contr|bute to stab|||ty Arguably Lhere ls some evldence of Lhls llkellhood ln LhaL aL leasL some of
Lhe reasons for Lhe SovleL unlon's collapse was due Lo an lnablllLy Lo keep up wlLh uS Lechnologlcal developmenLs ln Lhls fleld Lven as Lhe
uSS8 was scallng lLself down lL was engaglng ln ways Lo share mlsslle defense Lechnology and use an efforL LhaL was dlsconLlnued by Lhe uS
governmenL afLer 199310

A1 Arms kace

US must be f|rst to space on|y way to check back arms race
Mue||er 3 senlor pollLlcal sclenLlsL aL Lhe 8Anu speclallzes ln research relaLed Lo mlllLary and naLlonal securlLy sLraLegy parLlcularly
coerclon and deLerrence CorporaLlon (karl 1oLem and 1aboo" hLLp//wwwgwuedu/spl/asseLs/docs/SecurlLy_Space_volumellnalpdf)

1he proweaponlzaLlon perspecLlve LhaL generally appears leasL exLreme Lhough lL ls noL necessarlly Lhe one LhaL shares Lhe mosL common
ground wlLh space sancLuary Lheory ls LhaL of Lhe space racers 1hese are more or less relucLanL space weaponlzaLlon advocaLes who may
accepL LhaL sancLuary ls deslrable ln Lhe absLracL buL who belleve LhaL space weaponlzaLlon ls lnevlLable and LhaL Lhls
makes lL lmperaLlve for Lhe unlLed SLaLes Lo lead Lhe way ln Lhe developmenL and deploymenL
of space weapons 18 1he space racer perspecLlve ls shared by many lncludlng boLh academlc
LheorlsLs who are aLLracLed Lo resLralnL ln armamenL buL pesslmlsLlc abouL lLs prospecLs and
mlllLary leaders who are relucLanL Lo see defense resources dlverLed from oLher areas lnLo
space weapons buL who are slmllarly skepLlcal abouL Lhe chances of avoldlng Lhls 19 8ecause Lhe
Lhesls LhaL space weaponlzaLlon ls lnevlLable ls Lled Lo many of Lhe proweaponlzaLlon perspecLlves Lhe nexL secLlon of Lhls paper wlll examlne
lL ln some deLall and Lhe presenL dlscusslon wlll focus slmply on lLs lmpllcaLlons lor space racers Lhe mosL lmporLanL
conslderaLlon wlLh respecL Lo space weapons ls LhaL Lhe unlLed SLaLes should noL allow oLher
counLrles Lo surpass or even Lo rlval lL ln Lhls arena of mlllLary compeLlLlon 8elng Lhe leadlng
space power may offer slgnlflcanL mlllLary advanLage or lL could slmply be an lmporLanL source
of naLlonal presLlge and lnLernaLlonal pollLlcal lnfluence 20 ln elLher case Lhe unlLed SLaLes musL
keep ahead of Lhe pack and ln Lhe end musL be Lhe flrsL sLaLe Lo weaponlze space for even lf
LhaL ls unpleasanL lL wlll surely be beLLer Lhan belng Lhe second sLaLe Lo do so Moreover lf
weaponlzaLlon ls lnevlLable and lf leadlng Lhe way ls lmperaLlve any pollLlcal cosLs assoclaLed
wlLh belng Lhe flrsL sLaLe Lo vlolaLe Lhe sancLuary of space wlll have Lo be pald sooner or laLer
and delaylng wlll noL averL havlng Lo pay Lhe prlce

Ch|nese ASA1 test and subsequent responses nonun|ques arms race DA
Denmark lellow wlLh Lhe CenLer for a new Amerlcan SecurlLy 8y Abraham M and ur !ames Mulvenon CnAS !an ConLesLed
Commons 1he luLure of Amerlcan ower ln a MulLlpolar World hLLp//wwwcnasorg/flles/documenLs/publlcaLlons/CnAS20ConLesLed
20Commons20CapsLone_0pdf
ln an envlronmenL where all Lhe sLray bulleLs morLars and bombs do noL slmply fall Lo LarLh buL conLlnue Lo fly around Lhe world for decades
renderlng much of Lhe surface of Lhe LarLh unlnhablLable Slmllarly orblLs llLLered wlLh debrls from a klneLlc anLlsaLelllLe campalgn would be
useless for Lhe saLelllLes upon whlch Lhe global economy depends 1hls fraglllLy represenLs an Achllles' heel for Lhe space commons and Lhe uS
mlllLary 1he relaLlve dependence of Lhe uS on space makes lLs space sysLems poLenLlally aLLracLlve LargeLs Many forelgn naLlons
and nonsLaLe enLlLles are pursulng spacerelaLed acLlvlLles An aLLack on elemenLs of uS
space sysLems durlng a crlsls or confllcL should noL be consldered an lmprobable acL lf Lhe uS
ls Lo avold a Space earl Parbor" lL needs Lo Lake serlously Lhe posslblllLy of an aLLack on uS
space sysLems 8urgeonlng ASA1 CapablllLles A growlng number of sLaLes have recognlzed Amerlcan
rellance on space have access Lo space and are developlng capablllLles Lo explolL uS
vulnerablllLles 77 8ecenL developmenLs demonsLraLe LhaL access Lo and use of space ls becomlng lncreaslngly
conLesLed 1hese developmenLs LhreaLen Lhe Amerlcan way of war glven Lhe uS mlllLary's use
of space for everyLhlng from loglsLlcs Lo Command ConLrol CommunlcaLlons lnLelllgence
Survelllance and 8econnalssance (C3lS8) 1hese developmenLs also LhreaLen Lhe space commons ln general Chlna
successfully LesLed a dlrecLascenL anLlsaLellLe mlsslle ln !anuary 2007 whlch creaLed over 33000 pleces of debrls
larger Lhan 1 cenLlmeLer 78 Chlna also reporLedly used lasers Lo Lemporarlly bllnd an Amerlcan saLelllLe ln
2006 8ussla provlded lraq wlLh CS [ammers ln 2003 - whlch were somewhaL successful ln counLerlng Amerlcan preclslonsLrlke weapons 80
Several sLaLes and nonsLaLe acLors have used radlo and cyber capablllLles Lo dlsrupL or degrade
an adversary's space capablllLles lndonesla [ammed a Chlneseowned saLelllLe lran and 1urkey
have [ammed saLelllLe broadcasLs of naLlonal dlssldenLs 81 ln 2003 lran [ammed saLelllLe broadcasLs of volce of
Amerlca and ln March of LhaL year lran [ammed CS slgnals ln 1999 hackers aLLacked a 8rlLlsh saLelllLe vla cyberspace ln 2008 8razlllan
hackers were arresLed for uslng homemade communlcaLlons dlshes Lo hl[ack" Lransponders on a uS navy saLelllLe 82 More recenLly Lhe
lranlan governmenL reporLedly [ammed uS saLelllLe and radlo broadcasLs durlng Lhe proLesLs surroundlng lLs 2009 presldenLlal elecLlon 1he
Lhreshold Lo access space ls lowerlng allowlng several counLrles Lo develop lndlgenous ablllLles
Lo access and operaLe ln space Whlle Lhese efforLs are prlmarlly commerclal and clvlllan ln focus many new space
programs have mlllLary componenLs ln May 2008 !apan's leglslaLure passed a law endlng a ban on Lhe use of lLs space
program for defense lrance's new defense whlLe paper calls for doubllng lnvesLmenL ln space asseLs lncludlng spy saLelllLes ln laLe !une
lndla announced LhaL lL would opLlmlze space appllcaLlons for mlllLary purposes" and one of lLs mosL
senlor mlllLary offlcers candldly sLaLed WlLh Llme we wlll geL sucked lnLo a mlllLary race Lo proLecL our space
asseLs and lnevlLably Lhere wlll be a mlllLary conLesL ln space " 83 Space may ln Lhe comlng
decades be more accesslble Lo nonsLaLe acLors 1he hlgh cosLs assoclaLed wlLh developlng puLLlng lnLo orblL and
malnLalnlng asseLs ln space have Lo daLe kepL space a domaln for sLaLes buL cosLs are falllng rlvaLe companles have been aLLempLlng Lo
develop relaLlvely cosLeffecLlve space plaLforms for commerclal launch purposes 1he companles Scaled ComposlLes and vlrgln CalacLlc have
developed a crafL WhlLe knlghL 1wo whlch Lhey hope wlll carry a manned space capsule lnLo orblL ln fuLure years lL ls posslble (lf noL llkely)
LhaL advanced hlghalLlLude fllghL capablllLles demonsLraLed by Lhe WhlLe knlghL 1wo wlll prollferaLe maklng low orblL accesslble for acLors
LhaL do noL have Lhe resources Lo develop a fullfledged space program 1he lmpllcaLlons of new acLors operaLlng wlLhln Lhe space commons
are poLenLlally slgnlflcanL Long Lhe domaln of Lhe unlLed SLaLes and Lhe SovleL unlon space ln Lhe comlng decades wlll
become more crowded wlLh lnexperlenced acLors who may noL have responslble menLorshlp
of Lhe space commons ln mlnd lndeed some may use space Lo sLrlke aL Lhe unlLed SLaLes and Lhe
lnLernaLlonal sysLem a klnd of Lerrorlsm ln zero gravlLy


A1 Space 8MD Arms kace

Space 8MD prevents arm rac|ng and |nstab|||ty your authors' arguments are unfounded
theor|es
IIA (lnsLlLuLe for lorelgn ollcy Analysls Sponsored by Lhe Amerlcan lorelgn ollcy Councll Lhe Marshall lnsLlLuLe PerlLage ClaremonL
Mlssourl SLaLe unlverslLy eL al lndependenL Worklng Croup on Mlsslle uefense Lhe Space 8elaLlonshlp Lhe 1wenLyllrsL CenLury's 2009
8eporL" hLLps//wwwclaremonLorg/reposlLory/docLlb/200901291_lwg2009pdf LMM)

Amerlcan mlsslle defense wlll cause an arms race wlll cause nuclear prollferaLlon ln such places
as norLh korea and lran wlll LhreaLen Lhe mlllLary lnLegrlLy" of Chlna and 8ussla and Lhereby
challenge Lhelr places ln Lhe world and wlll as a consequence be desLablllzlng Lo world peace
Amerlca musL noL be allowed Lo acqulre mlsslle defense
1hese are Lhe screeds of a communlLy of mlsslle defense opponenLs LhaL dally pepper Lhe
medla and publlc pollcy worlds 1hey have been parL of Lhe naLlon's rheLorlcal landscape for
over 40 years and for LhlrLy of Lhose years Lhese pronouncemenLs were proLecLed and made valld by Lhe A8M 1reaLy's prohlblLlon of
mlsslle defense 1hey have been repeaLed so ofLen for so long LhaL for some Amerlcans Lhese uLLerances have become convenLlonal wlsdom
LhaL carrles Lhe rlng of LruLh Lo be accepLed as a maLLer of course wlLhouL challenge
1herefore Lhese argumenLs musL be Laken serlously unLll Lhe uS wlLhdrawal from Lhe LreaLy lL had been a loslng proposlLlon Lo refuLe Lhem
noL because Lhey are dlfflculL Lo refuLe buL because any serlous challenges Lo Lhem have been lrrelevanL WhaL would be Lhe polnL of
challenglng Lhe evlls" of mlsslle defense when Lhe A8M 1reaLy was ln place Lo prevenL mlsslle defense? WlLh Lhe LreaLy gone Lhls changes
8efuLaLlon should be vlgorously pursued
1he flaw ln Lhese vlews ls LhaL Lhey have llLLle or no basls ln facL 1hey are lnsLead based on
phllosophy and emoLlon and for some pollLlcal advanLage where facL lLself ls lrrelevanL 1he facL LhaL
Lhere ls no real basls ln facL ls obvlous and Lo deny Lhls ls clear evldence of Lhe dogmaLlc naLure
of mlsslle defense opponenLs who use Lhese argumenLs
1o begln wlLh arms races sLem from compeLlLlon for offenslve weapons and whlle lL ls Lrue LhaL
some arms races are deslgned ln parL Lo overcome someone's defenses Lhe converse LhaL Lhe
absence of defenses breeds Lhe absence of offenslve weapons ls wlLhouL hlsLorlcal basls lndeed
Lhls proposlLlon ls supporLed by lrrefuLable evldence LhaL Lhe unlLed SLaLes never has had
mlsslle defenses for lLs populaLlon much less lLs mlllLary lnsLallaLlons (save for selecLlve use of llmlLed polnL" defense such as
Lhe aLrloL) 8uL LhaL reallLy has noL prevenLed elLher nuclear prollferaLlon or nuclear arms
bulldups lL has ln all probablllLy been Lhe reverse
1he evldence also ls clear LhaL Lhe pasL 40 years mosL especlally Lhe lasL decade have seen
relenLless bulldups and bold moves Lo spread Lhe use of nuclear and oLher weapons of mass
desLrucLlon as wlLness evolvlng evenLs ln 8ussla Chlna norLh korea and lran (dlscussed elsewhere ln
Lhls reporL) Cne of Lhe few Llmes Lhere has been a slgnlflcanL slowlng of momenLum was ln Lhe brlef
perlod 198393 whlch was Lhe helghL of mlsslle defense developmenL ln Lhe unlLed SLaLes ln oLher
words lf anyLhlng a credlble mlsslle defense even ln developmenL sLage ls much more llkely
Lo help slow an arms race and dlscourage prollferaLlon because lL ralses Lhe cosLs and lowers
Lhe chances of success for aggressor naLlons or LerrorlsL groups Lo Lry Lo flnd ways Lo
overwhelm an effecLlve mlsslle defense sysLem wlLh Lhelr offenslve weapons ln Lhls sense lL can
become a deLerrenL and Lhus conLrlbuLe Lo sLablllLy Arguably Lhere ls some evldence of Lhls llkellhood ln LhaL aL
leasL some of Lhe reasons for Lhe SovleL unlon's collapse was due Lo an lnablllLy Lo keep up wlLh uS Lechnologlcal developmenLs ln Lhls fleld
Lven as Lhe uSS8 was scallng lLself down lL was engaglng ln ways Lo share mlsslle defense Lechnology and use an efforL LhaL was dlsconLlnued
by Lhe uS governmenL afLer 199310

Space arms race ls lnevlLable regardless of wheLher or noL Lhe uS deploys S8Mu
falLzgraff eL al 9 (kobert hD and rofessor of Int Secur|ty Stud|es Q 1ufts and res|dent Q the IIA W||||am C|eave hD and
rofessor Q M|ssour| State I|an 8erman V for o||cy Q the Amer|can Iore|gn o||cy Counc|| k|ron Sk|nner hD and Ie||ow Q the noover
Inst|tut|on nenry Cooper Cha|rman Q n|gh Iront|er n 8aker Spr|ng kesearch Ie||ow Q ner|tage Iacque|yn Dav|s hD and Lxecut|ve V Q
IIA Mead 1readwe|| Sen|or Ie||ow Q Inst|tute of the North Dan|e| I|ne hD and kesearch Assoc|ate Q MI1 kobert 1urner rofessor at
Un|vers|ty of V|rg|n|a kobert Iastrow hD and Cha|rman of the 8oard Q the Marsha|| Inst|tute ID W||||ams V|ce Adm|ra| of the USN
1homas karako D|rector of rograms Q C|aremont Inst|tute au| Weyr|ch CLC Q the Iree Congress kesearch and Lducat|on Ioundat|on
8r|an kennedy res|dent Q C|aremont Inst|tute Lowe|| Wood hD and V|s|t|ng Ie||ow Q noover Ieff kueter res|dent Q the Marsha||
Inst|tute Lr|c L|cht Sen|or Ana|yst Q the Iree Congress kesearch and Lducat|on Ioundat|on k Dan|e| McM|chae| Secretary Q the Carthage
Ioundat|on and the Sarah Sca|fe Ioundat|on "keport of the Independent Work|ng roup on M|ss||e Defense the Space ke|at|onsh|p the
1wentyI|rst Century" repared by the Inst|tute for Iore|gn o||cy Ana|ys|s"
hLLps//wwwclaremonLorg/reposlLory/docLlb/200901291_lwg2009pdf 1S)

Wh||e |n effect the A8M 1reaty served as a cr|t|ca| |mped|ment to US dep|oyment of spacebased m|ss||e defense W|th the treaty's
term|nat|on |n 22 new opportun|t|es for spacebased m|ss||e defense have emerged nowever the key obstac|es to space
defenses rema|n more po||t|ca| than techno|og|ca| |n nature Ior examp|e certa|n const|tuenc|es
cont|nue to vo|ce vehement oppos|t|on to spacebased m|ss||e defenses |n the m|staken
be||ef that they cou|d resu|t |n the weapon|zat|on of space 1hls assumpLlon ls Lhe resulL of Lhe
dublous loglc LhaL lf Lhe unlLed SLaLes refralns from Lhe deploymenL of spacebased mlsslle
defense oLher naLlons wlll behave ln slmllar fashlon 1here |s no emp|r|ca| bas|s for expect|ng
such |nternat|ona| rec|procat|on however WhaLever Lhe un|ted States chooses Lo do (or not to
do) Chlna among oLher naLlons seems deLermlned Lo pursue space programs and at |east |n
the case of 8e|[|ng to esLabllsh lLself as a space superpower 1he Ch|nese d|rectascent |aunch
aga|nst |ts own weather sate|||te |n Ianuary 2 |||ustrates the d|ff|cu|ty |nherent |n
restr|ct|ng the weapon|zat|on of space by |nternat|ona| treaty We cou|d have great d|ff|cu|ty
even agree|ng on what const|tutes a space weapon Is |t a m|ss||e |aunched from earth aga|nst an ob[ect |n space?
If so how wou|d |t be poss|b|e to d|fferent|ate between a m|ss||e for th|s purpose and a
m|ss||e for other purposes?

No arms race countermeasures by others are too cost|y and S8MD so|ves
Ireder|ck SLaff College MasLer of Alrpower ArL and Sclence M8A 8egls unlverslLy MasLer of MlllLary CperaLlonal ArL and Sclence Alr
Command and School of Advanced Alr and Space SLudles (Lorlnda ueLerrence and Space8ased Mlsslle uefense"
hLLp//wwwalrpowerauafmll/alrchronlcles/ap[/ap[09/fal09/frederlckhLml)

oLenLlal adversarles may develop counLermeasures ln response Lo Lhe uS fleldlng of an S8Mu
because Lhe laLLer would make Lhelr capablllLles lneffecLlve 8u of counLermeasures whlch
Lakes Llme and money may resulL ln reduced payload and/or range of Lhe mlsslle 1hese
moneLary and performance cosLs may be enough Lo deLer an adversary from aLLempLlng
counLermeasures Cne counLermeasure agalnsL nonklneLlc S8Mu capablllLleshardened
mlssllescould have a reduced payload due Lo Lhe added welghL of Lhe hardenlng maLerlal and
addlLlonal fuel needed Lo reach Lhe requlred dlsLances 1he adversary could also fleld more mlsslles Lo saLuraLe Lhe
mlsslle defense archlLecLure
49
1he saLuraLlon polnL depends upon Lhe numbers of boLh spacebased and
LerresLrlally based lnLercepLors deployed 8ecause decoys and counLermeasures are deployed
afLer boosL phase S8Mu could llghLen Lhe load for mldcourse and Lermlnalphase defenses
1he adversary could also shlfL from balllsLlc mlsslles Lo crulse mlsslles buL would pay a penalLy ln Lerms of speed
reach and desLrucLlve poLenLlal 1hese penalLles ln comblnaLlon wlLh exlsLlng crulse mlsslle
defenses could make an aLLack less llkely Lo succeed Space sensors deslgned Lo Lrlgger S8Mu could also Lrlgger 1Mu
Lo lnLercepL crulse mlsslles S8Mu could lncrease Lhe effecLlveness of Lhe currenL 8Mu archlLecLure even
lf Lhe adversary employs counLermeasures Credlble capablllLles have Lhe poLenLlal Lo deny an
adversary's ob[ecLlves and Lherefore may deLer hlm from employlng balllsLlc mlsslles
alLogeLher key pollLlcal declslons help explaln Lhe progress (or lack Lhereof) made Lowards
explorlng and developlng Lhe poLenLlal of S8Mu
A1 Cooperat|on
Space 8MD causes g|oba| cooperat|on and deters conf||ct rather than |nc|t|ng |t
ur SLeven Lambak|s Senlor uefense AnalysL aL Lhe naLlonal lnsLlLuLe for ubllc ollcy 2 Mlsslle uefense from Space"
hLLp//wwwgeesorg/documenLos/uocumen02177pdf
1he pollcy beneflLs of a spacebased mlsslle defense layer are sLralghLforward A more effect|ve m|ss||e defense system
that fu||y |everages space wou|d prov|de a true onca|| g|oba| defens|ve capab|||ty and th|s
cou|d |ead to |ncreased stab|||ty |n the wor|d Defenses deter attacks by reduc|ng conf|dence
|n the success of any attack 1he more effect|ve the m|ss||e defense system |s the greater w|||
be |ts deterrence va|ue and the |ess ||ke|y w||| we be to have to use |t at a|| AL some polnL when Lhe
sysLem ls seen by oLher governmenLs as hlghly effecLlve Lhey could recognlze a dlmlnlshlng marglnal raLe of reLurn ln Lhelr own balllsLlc mlsslle
lnvesLmenLs As more a|||es |nvest |n m|ss||e defense US spacebas|ng act|v|t|es cou|d bu||d on
current m|ss||e defense cooperat|ve act|v|t|es and open up new avenues for |nternat|ona|
co||aborat|on boLh Lo develop elemenLs of Lhe spacebased layer and Lo parLlclpaLe ln operaLlons
Un||atera| S8MD deve|opment key to effect|ve power and doesn't |ead to arms races
LL Col Lorlnda AIreder|ck M8A 8egls unlverslLy MasLer of MlllLary CperaLlonal ArL and Sclence Alr Command and SLaff College MasLer of
Alrpower ArL and Sclence School of Advanced Alr and Space SLudles worked space and mlsslle offlcer asslgnmenLs and lC8M requlremenLs '08
(CraduaLe Lhesls uL1L88LnCL Anu SACL8ASLu MlSSlLL uLlLnSL" !une 28
A reallsL moral phllosophy holds pursulL of Lhe naLlonal lnLeresL as an ldeal gulde Lo Lhe formulaLlon of sLaLe pollcy especlally ln a dangerous
lnLernaLlonal sysLem3 uangers abound lnLernaLlonally due Lo pollLlcal uncerLalnLles ln sLaLes and rogue elemenLs World pollLlcs may be
characLerlzed by a sLaLe of war" noL a slngle conLlnuous war or consLanL wars buL Lhe consLanL posslblllLy of war among all sLaLes4 vlewlng
Lhe unllaLeral pursulL of S8Mu Lhrough Lhe lens of complex reallsm reveals areas Lhe unlLed SLaLes may emphaslze Un||atera| pursu|t
of S8MD strengthens Un|ted States' ab|||ty to protect |tse|f w|thout |nternat|ona| constra|nts
on how the US pro[ects power and ma|nta|ns freedom of act|on 1he ablllLy Lo pro[ecL power leLs soverelgn
naLlons defend Lhelr lnLeresLs wlLhouL relylng on oLher sLaLes S8MD cou|d enab|e a g|oba| onca|| m|ss||e defense
capab|||ty and a t|me|y response to rap|d|y evo|v|ng threats 1he unlLed SLaLes has Lhe freedom Lo launch
S8Mu asseLs lnLo orblLs favorable for deLerrlng or respondlng Lo LhreaLs from hosLlle sLaLes After un||atera||y dep|oy|ng such
capab|||t|es the Un|ted States wou|d be free to |aunch |ts spacebased |nterceptors when |t
fe|t the need to pro[ect power Landbased defenses |ocated on fore|gn so|| by contrast m|ght
have to request perm|ss|on from the host nat|on before |aunch|ng the|r |nterceptors S8Mu could
Lherefore enhance boLh power pro[ecLlon and freedom of acLlon S8Mu can also help Lhe unlLed SLaLes reduce lLs dependence on oLher sLaLes
furLher Augment|ng the current 8MD arch|tecture w|th S8MD cou|d |et the nat|on redep|oy
|and sea and a|r assets and reduce |ts dependency on overseas bases lorelgn publlc oplnlon may noL
supporL oLher forms of mlsslle defense Lechnology on Lhelr soverelgn LerrlLory6 ollLlcal Lles beLween Lhe unlLed SLaLes and oLher counLrles
may be sLralned lf Lhere ls publlc conLroversy over proposals Lo fleld landbased mlsslle defense Iore|gn popu|at|ons who v|ew
|nterdependence as a potent|a| vu|nerab|||ty may f|nd |t unsett||ng to depend on the Un|ted
States for the|r defense S8MD cou|d |nsu|ate the Un|ted States from the osc|||at|ng currents
of fore|gn pub||c op|n|on AlLhough some worry LhaL a unllaLeral uS approach Lo S8Mu could sLarL a new arms race or lncrease
Lenslon Lhe lens of complex reallsm quesLlons Lhe lnevlLablllLy of Lhese ouLcomes kea||sm typ|ca||y focuses on re|at|ve
power and not abso|ute power and S8MD do not have to upset the ba|ance of re|at|ve
power New arms races wou|d happen |f nat|ons such as kuss|a and Ch|na perce|ve the|r
ab|||ty to wage war |s be|ng threatened by US pursu|t of S8MD If S8MD are proper|y
des|gned and dep|oyed they shou|d not decrease the deterrent effect of the kuss|an and
Ch|nese ba|||st|c m|ss||e arsena|s 1he unlLed SLaLes ls noL lnLeresLed ln renewlng or sLarLlng arms races wlLh any counLry
AlLhough Lhe unllaLeral pursulL of S8Mu could produce such adverse effecLs Lhe unlLed SLaLes aware of such posslblllLles could sLrlve Lo avold
Lhem A naLlon's deslre for freedom of acLlon may sLeer lL away from LreaLles 1he unlLed SLaLes wlLhdrew from Lhe A8M 1reaLy because lL
resLrlcLed how Lhe unlLed SLaLes could defend lLself from balllsLlc mlsslle aLLack A unllaLeral approach would shun parLlclpaLlon ln LreaLles
resLrlcLlng Lhe unlLed SLaLes' deploymenL of S8Mu 1reaLles are valuable as long as all of Lhe slgnaLorles ablde by Lhe Lerms and condlLlons lf
Lhe LreaLy ls slgned under duress or ls lnequlLable Lhen Lhe LreaLy may fall aparL 1reaLles may also be used lnsLead of oLher more approprlaLe
lnsLrumenLs of power8 1he unlLed SLaLes could avold resLrlcLlve LreaLles lf lL wanLs Lo preserve lLs freedom of acLlon Accordlng Lo a reallsL
perspecLlve lnLernaLlonal pressure should noL resLrlcL Lhe opLlons avallable Lo Lhe unlLed SLaLes ln pursulng S8Mu 1hls approach would sLeer
away from conslderlng Lhe vlews of organlzaLlons such as Lhe unlLed naLlons Luropean unlon and Lhe norLh ALlanLlc 1reaLy CrganlzaLlon unLll
Lhose vlews dlsrupL some oLher lssue on whlch Lhe unlLed SLaLes really wanLs or needs Lhelr cooperaLlon Un||atera| approaches to
other forms of 8MD are |ess v|ab|e because |nternat|ona| actors frequent|y restr|ct these US
opt|ons 8ussla already opposes uS plans Lo base mlsslle defenses ln Lhe Czech 8epubllc and oland Lo proLecL oLher counLrles agalnsL
balllsLlc mlsslles launched by rogue elemenLs such as lran Internat|ona| pressures are |ess ||ke|y to restr|ct the
un||atera| pursu|t of S8MD than |ts |andbased counterparts A complex reallsm argumenL asserLs LhaL falllng Lo
accepL Lhe naLlonal lnLeresL may be a prescrlpLlon for naLlonal dlsasLer an lncrease ln global vlolence and an lrresponslble acL of
sLaLesmanshlp LhaL places prlvaLe lnLeresLs or ldeals above publlc needs"9 1hus because sLraLeglc cholces Lake prlorlLy over moral cholces Lhe
unlLed SLaLes could pursue S8Mu regardless of whaL Lhe lnLernaLlonal communlLy Lhlnks10 1he unlLed SLaLes could prepare lLself Lo develop
S8Mu unllaLerally lf necessary
M|ss||e Defense ne|ps ke|at|ons
IAS (1he lederaLlon of Amerlcan SclenLlsLs an lndependenL nonparLlsan Lhlnk Lank and membershlp organlzaLlon ls dedlcaLed Lo provldlng
rlgorous ob[ecLlve evldencebased analysls and pracLlcal pollcy recommendaLlons on naLlonal and lnLernaLlonal securlLy lssues connecLed Lo
applled sclence and Lechnology Moreover lAS ls commlLLed Lo educaLlng pollcymakers Lhe publlc Lhe news medla and Lhe nexL generaLlon of
sclenLlsLs englneers and global leaders abouL Lhe urgenL need for creaLlng a more secure and beLLer sclenceeducaLed world) 2 Space
8ased Laser S8L" 2010 hLLp//wwwfasorg/spp/sLarwars/program/sblhLm
1he potent|a| to |ntercept and destroy a m|ss||e over enemy terr|tory soon after |aunch
rather than over fr|end|y terr|tory makes the deve|opment of a boost phase |ntercept (8I)
capab|||ty very des|rab|e ln concerL wlLh ground based LheaLer mlsslle defense (1Mu) sysLems already under developmenL Lhe
uS conLlnues Lo lnvesLlgaLe 8l concepLs for 8Mu sysLems 1he S8L program could develop Lhe Lechnology Lo provlde Lhe uS wlLh an
advanced 8Mu sysLem for boLh LheaLer and naLlonal mlsslle defense 8MuC belleves LhaL an S8L sysLem has Lhe poLenLlal Lo make oLher
conLrlbuLlons Lo uS securlLy and world securlLy as a whole such as lnduclng poLenLlal aggressors Lo abandon balllsLlc mlsslle programs by
renderlng Lhem useless lalllng LhaL 8MDC be||eves that the creat|on of such a un|versa| defense system
wou|d prov|de the |mpetus for other nat|ons to expand the|r secur|ty agreements w|th the
Un|ted States br|ng|ng them under a U S sponsored m|ss||e defense umbre||a
Internat|ona| percept|on of US space weapons wou|d not be host||e
LvereLL Do|man AssoclaLe rofessor of ComparaLlve MlllLary SLudles aL Lhe uS Alr lorces School of Advanced Alr and Space SLudles 206
SAlS 8evlew uS MlllLary 1ransformaLlon and Weapons ln Space" 2006 SAlS 8evlew 261 (2006) 163173
Moreover lf Lhe unlLed SLaLes were wllllng Lo deploy and use a mlllLary space force LhaL malnLalned effecLlve conLrol of space and dld so ln a
way LhaL was percelved as Lough nonarblLrary and efflclenL such an acLlon Lnd age 171 would serve Lo dlscourage compeLlng sLaLes from
fleldlng opposlng sysLems Shou|d the Un|ted States use |ts advantage to po||ce the heavens and a||ow
unh|ndered peacefu| use of space by any and a|| nat|ons for econom|c and sc|ent|f|c
deve|opment over t|me |ts contro| of |owLarth orb|t cou|d be v|ewed as a g|oba| asset and a
pub||c good In much the same way the 8r|t|sh ma|nta|ned contro| of the h|gh seas enforclng
lnLernaLlonal norms of lnnocenL passage and properLy rlghLs the Un|ted States cou|d prepare outer space for a
|ongoverdue burst of econom|c expans|on
No back|ash to space NMD on|y w||| be used aga|nst rogue nat|ons
!acques ans|er lormer under SecreLary of uefense for AcqulslLlon 1echnology and LoglsLlcs 2 CLn1L8 lC8 1LCPnCLCC? Anu nA1lCnAL
SLCu8l1? CLlC? nA1lCnAL uLlLnSL unlvL8Sl1? WASPlnC1Cn uC 8alllsLlc Mlsslle uefense asL and luLure 4/10 hLLp//wwwdLlcmll/cgl
bln/CeL18uoc?AuAuA327876LocaLlonu2docCeL18uocpdf
1he area that w||| requ|re the most attent|on |n the com|ng years |s assur|ng the cooperat|on
of kuss|a and Ch|na (probably ln LhaL order) for a new A8M 1reaty that w||| a||ow the Un|ted States
and |ts a|||es to dep|oy m|ss||e defense systems geared to defend aga|nst rogue nat|ons and
un|ntent|ona| |aunches Powever the Un|ted States must be carefu| to stress that th|s |ncreased
defense wou|d be no threat to e|ther kuss|a or Ch|na |n terms of the|r strateg|c deterrent
postures It |s essent|a| that they recogn|ze that the US system |s not |ntended for use
aga|nst them ln facL lL wlll be necessary Lo show how lL cannoL become a LhreaL Lo Lhemeven wlLh growLh and enhancemenLs ln Lhe
fuLure Lhrough LreaLy consLralnLs and verlflcaLlon Lechnlques erhaps Lhe besL approach here ls Lhrough [olnL programs (eg sharlng of
mlsslle warnlng cenLers sharlng of radar Lracklng slLes eLc) 1hls wlll of course requlre changes ln uS Lechnology exporL conLrols (l1A8 LA8
eLc)3 1he lncreaslng globallzaLlon of lndusLry Lechnology and parLlcularly securlLy ls lncreaslngly maklng such changes mandaLory ln any
case
A1 Space Debr|s
Space deterrence key to prevent|ng debr|s
SWI sLaff wrlLers Secure World loundaLlon (SWl) ls headquarLered ln Superlor Colorado wlLh offlces ln WashlngLon uC and vlenna
AusLrla SWl ls a prlvaLe operaLlng foundaLlon dedlcaLed Lo Lhe secure and susLalnable use of space (4/24 Space ueLerrence ConcepL CrlLlcal
1o uS Space AsseL SecurlLy" hLLp//wwwspacewarcom/reporLs/Space_ueLerrence_ConcepL_CrlLlcal_1o_uS_Space_AsseL_SecurlLy_999hLml
A fundamenLal workshop observaLlon ls LhaL Lhe uS faces Lhe key lssue of whaL Lhe face of 21sL cenLury deLerrence mlghL look llke In a
post Co|d War era the number range and var|ety of p|ayers has |ncreased s|gn|f|cant|y and
space |s perhaps the most g|oba||zed of po||t|ca| and m|||tary arenas As such Lhere ls much debaLe as Lo
whaL Lhe face of deLerrence for space should look llke and how large a role lL should play ln overall uS sLraLeglc Lhlnklng ln proLecLlon lLs space
asseLs Matur|ng the d|scuss|on of space deterrence |s |mportant because deterrence u|t|mate|y
prov|des the best protect|on of space and enhances US nat|ona| secur|ty says Co|one| Sean
McC|ung D|rector of the Nat|ona| Space Stud|es Center at Maxwe|| A|r Iorce 8ase McClung adds
Successfu| space deterrence can prevent conf||cts that create mass|ve debr|s f|e|ds and resu|t
|n a un|versa| |nab|||ty to effect|ve|y use the space env|ronment CLher evenLs on Lhls Loplc mosL noLably
Lhose of Lhe naLlonal uefense unlverslLy and Lhe Llsenhower CenLer for Space and uefense SLudles hlghllghL Lhe currency of Lhls Lheme and lLs
conslderaLlon by Lhe upper echelons of pollLlcal and mlllLary Lhlnkers
A1 Ch|na ke|at|ons
Leaked statements prove USS|no re|at|ons over space are un|que|y |owCbama
arguments don't app|yhe has the same fears as 8ush
SN Clobal SecurlLy newswlre Leaks 8eveal ChlneseuS AnLlSaLelllLe 1enslons" lebruary 3 2011
hLLp//wwwglobalsecurlLynewswlreorg/gsn/nw_20110203_3787php
1he 8ush admlnlsLraLlon qu|et|y cast|gated Ch|na over |ts 2 ant|sate|||te test one monLh before Lhe unlLed
SLaLes shoL down one of lLs own orblLers the London 1e|egraph yesterday quoted |eaked US d|p|omat|c
commun|cat|ons as say|ng (see CSn !an 28) Chlna ellmlnaLed one of lLs orblLlng saLelllLes ln !anuary 2007 (see CSn !an 19
2007) Lhe unlLed SLaLes carrled ouL a slmllar operaLlon Lhe followlng year (see CSn leb 21 2008) 1he unlLed SLaLes has noL conducLed an
anLlsaLelllLe LesL slnce 1983" Lhe SLaLe ueparLmenL noLed ln !anuary 2008 A Ch|nese attack on a sate|||te us|ng a
weapon |aunched by a ba|||st|c m|ss||e threatens to destroy space systems that the Un|ted
States and other nat|ons use for commerce and nat|ona| secur|ty Destroy|ng sate|||tes
endangers peop|e" Lhe 8ush admlnlsLraLlon sald ln a formal proLesL Any purposefu| |nterference w|th US
space systems w||| be |nterpreted by the Un|ted States as an |nfr|ngement of |ts r|ghts and
cons|dered an esca|at|on |n a cr|s|s or conf||ct Lhe documenL warns 1he Un|ted States reserves the
r|ght conslsLenL wlLh Lhe un CharLer and lnLernaLlonal law to defend and protect |ts space systems w|th a w|de
range of opt|ons from d|p|omat|c to m|||tary" Wash|ngton h|nted at m|||tary |mp||cat|ons of
|ts own ant|sate|||te maneuver whlch was conducLed osLenslbly Lo prevenL Lhe conLenLs of Lhe saLelllLes fuel Lank from
causlng envlronmenLal damage accordlng Lo Lhe 1elegraph 1he uS Lmbassy ln 8el[lng obLalned dlrecL conflrmaLlon of Lhe resulLs of Lhe
anLlsaLelllLe LesL" from Lhe uS aclflc Command accordlng Lo records obLalned by Lhe openness organlzaLlon Wlklleaks A us uefense
ueparLmenL spokesman sald yesLerday Lhough LhaL Lhe unlLed SLaLes dld noL engage our own saLelllLe Lo LesL or demonsLraLe an anLlsaLelllLe
(ASA1) capablllLy 1he purpose was Lo prevenL Lhe saLelllLes hydrazlne fuel from causlng poLenLlal harm Lo llfe on Lhe ground 1he US
sate|||te shootdown prompted an angry response from 8e|[|ng documenLs lndlcaLe Chlnas asslsLanL
forelgn mlnlsLer ln one case suggesLed Lhe enLagons anLlmlsslle efforL was boLh defenslve" and offenslve" slnce lL lncludes lasers LhaL
aLLack a mlsslle ln launch phase over Lhe soverelgn LerrlLory of Lhe launchlng counLry (see CSn !an 11) 1he unlLed SLaLes ln a !anuary 2010
cable expressed concern abouL posslble anLlsaLelllLe lnLenLlons behlnd a Chlnese LesL mlsslle lnLercepLlon LhaL monLh 1he LesL used an SC19
mlsslle lnvolved ln 8el[lngs 2007 anLlsaLelllLe demonsLraLlon 1h|s test |s assessed to have furthered both Ch|nese
ASA1 (ant|sate|||te) and ba|||st|c m|ss||e defense techno|og|es" Lhe documenL sLaLes 1he Cbama
admlnlsLraLlon had the same fears as |ts predecessor about Ch|nas poss|b|e m|||tary amb|t|ons |n
space SecreLary of SLaLe Plllary CllnLon sald otent|a| future spacebased m|||tary threats have |ncreas|ng
prompted concerns among WesLern governmenLs accordlng Lo Lhe 1elegraph 8rlLlsh uefense SecreLary Llam lox lasL year warned
LhaL an elecLromagneLlc pulse caused by Lhe deLonaLlon of a nuclear weapon near Lhe edge of earLhs aLmosphere could knock ouL cruclal
elecLrlcal sysLems (see CSn SepL 21 2010 London 1elegraph leb 2)
8MD Inev|tab|e
8MD |s |nev|tab|e [ust a quest|on of effect|veness
IIA (lnsLlLuLe for lorelgn ollcy Analysls Sponsored by Lhe Amerlcan lorelgn ollcy Councll Lhe Marshall lnsLlLuLe PerlLage ClaremonL
Mlssourl SLaLe unlverslLy eL al lndependenL Worklng Croup on Mlsslle uefense Lhe Space 8elaLlonshlp Lhe 1wenLyllrsL CenLury's 2009
8eporL" hLLps//wwwclaremonLorg/reposlLory/docLlb/200901291_lwg2009pdf LMM)
M|ss||e defense has entered a new era W|th the |n|t|a| m|ss||e defense dep|oyments the
decades|ong debate over whether to protect the Amer|can peop|e from the threat of ba|||st|c
m|ss||e attack was sett|ed and sett|ed unequ|voca||y |n favor of m|ss||e defense What
rema|ns an open quest|on |s how the Amer|can m|ss||e defense system w||| evo|ve |n the
years ahead to take max|mum advantage of techno|og|ca| opportun|t|es to meet present and
emerg|ng dangers
Status quo 8MD |s a|ready seen as a space weapon
Sheehan rofessor of lnLernaLlonal 8elaLlons unlverslLy of Swansea Pe has LaughL courses on Lhe lnLernaLlonal pollLlcs of space for Lhe
pasL LwenLy years and ls Lhe auLhor of numerous books lncludlng lnLernaLlonal SecurlLy An AnalyLlcal Survey naLlonal and lnLernaLlonal
SecurlLy 1he 8alance of ower PlsLory and 1heory (also publlshed by 8ouLledge) Arms ConLrol 1heory and racLlce and 1he Arms 8ace
(Mlchael 1he lnLernaLlonal ollLlcs of Space" 8ouLledge
Ch|na has adamant|y opposed the Amer|can ba|||st|c m|ss||e defence programme and lLs
encouragemenL of reglonal allles Lo parLlclpaLe ln Lhe developmenL of balllsLlc mlsslle defence Lechnology 1hls ls hardly surprlslng glven Lhe
llmlLed numbers of sLraLeglc nuclear weapons LhaL Chlna has deployed as parL of lLs deLerrence posLure Ch|na has pursued a
'm|n|mum deterrent' strategy and hav|ng a comparat|ve|y sma|| nuc|ear force means that |ts
capab|||ty wou|d be made vu|nerab|e w|th the dep|oyment of even a ||m|ted defens|ve
system Whlle lL ls posslble for Chlna Lo develop counLermeasures Lo any defenslve sysLem Lhls creaLes addlLlonal and unwanLed
Lechnologlcal and nanclal demands for Chlna ln Lhls regard Ch|na has beneted from the 'strateg|c partnersh|p'
formed w|th kuss|a |n the m|ds wh|ch has g|ven her access to advanced data and
techno|ogy acqu|red by the Sov|et Un|on dur|ng |ts Co|d War confrontat|on w|th the Un|ted
States Lven though the Un|ted States c|a|ms to w|sh to dep|oy on|y a m|n|ma| capab|||ty
su|tab|e for |ntercept|ng |nd|v|dua| |aunches from 'rogue' states th|s hard|y reassures Ch|na
g|ven that even a ||m|ted system wou|d threaten the|r ||m|ted offence Moreover they are
we|| aware that the US system cou|d be upgraded to a more capab|e system |f a |ater
adm|n|strat|on w|shed |t and |ndeed the Nat|ona| M|ss||e Defense programme spec|ca||y
prov|des for th|s eventua||ty Chlna ls also aware LhaL Lhe unlLed SLaLes has demonsLraLed ln Lhe pasL LhaL lL does noL see lLself
as consLralned by LreaLles and agreemenLs lL has slgned lf lL decldes LhaL Lhese no longer serve Amerlcan lnLeresLs Chlna percelves Lhe 8ush
admlnlsLraLlon's deploymenL of Lhe groundbased Mldcourse Mlsslle uefence sysLem as a clear and declslve rsL sLep on Lhe road Lo Lhe
weaponlsaLlon of space Ch|nese m|||tary spec|a||sts have argued that the m|ss||e systems dep|oyed on
Amer|ca's west coast cou|d a|so be used as ASA1 systems Ch|nese concerns were |ncreased
after 2 by a sense that US support for the weapon|sat|on of space was ga|n|ng momentum
wlLh Lhe advenL of Lhe Ceorge W 8ush admlnlsLraLlon Cmlnous for Chlna were Lhe demands ln Lhe 8umsfeld Commlsslon 8eporL LhaL Lhe
unlLed SLaLes move qulckly 'Lo ensure LhaL Lhe presldenL wlll have Lhe opLlon Lo deploy weapons ln space' 38 and Lhe Amerlcan wlLhdrawal
from Lhe AnLl8alllsLlc Mlsslle 1reaLy ln 2002 Chlna also Look noLe of Lhe language used ln Lhe 2004 CounLerspace uocLrlne paper 39 and Lhe
2006 revlslon of uS naLlonal Space pollcy