ATW 2011 Ekim

SITA/ATW Passenger Survey: Self-Service Options in Demand
The Magazine of Global Airline Management www.atwonline.com October 2011 November 2006
A Penton Publication
A i r Tr a n s p o r t Wo r l d
The Magazine of Global Airline Management www.atwonline.com
AF447 Training Implications Africas Market Potential RFID Technology Gets Real NextGens Big Opportunity
Fee
Spirit
How US carriers la carte pricing strategy pays off
Trends
WORLD AiRLine TRAffic
JAnuARy-June 2011
US
RPKs (mil.) ASKs (mil.) Pass. (000) Pass. LF (%) FTKs (mil.) Source: US DOT BTS
TOP 20 RePORTinG AiRLineS SySTeM TRAffic

2010 617,856 762,505 349,600 81.0 45,699 2010 358,047 471,129 157,341 76.0 16,066 2010 337,899 432,613 88,790 78.1 31,255 2010 95,757 134,356 64,751 71.3 1,893 % chg 3.4 3.8 2.3 -0.4 -5.6 % chg 9.0 10.4 8.9 -1.0 5.5 % chg 3.7 6.8 3.1 -2.3 -3.2 % chg 6.1 0.9 4.5 3.7 4.6
2011 638,612 791,628 357,800 80.7 43,132 2011 390,271 520,126 171,344 75.0 16,950 2011 350,376 461,985 91,550 75.8 30,251 2011 101,587 135,558 67,655 74.9 1,979
JAnuARy - AuGuST 2011 RANK

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
AiRliNe
Delta * United Continental Air France KlM American Southwest lufthansa emirates 1 British Airways Cathay Pacific US Airways Qantas Group Air Canada Singapore Airlines TAM iberia JetBlue Thai Airways Korean Air
2 1 1
RPKS (000)
212,116,534 199,376,722 143,774,000 137,688,550 113,844,586 94,309,000 86,954,449 77,777,000 66,819,531 66,668,458 62,029,000 60,054,000 56,860,900 38,012,062 34,582,000 33,112,230 32,842,000 32,139,052 28,903,313 25,155,000
Europe
RPKs (mil.) ASKs (mil.) Pass. (000) Pass. LF (%) FTKs (mil.) Source: AEA
Asia Pacific
RPKs (mil.) ASKs (mil.) Pass. (000) Pass. LF (%) FTKs (mil.) Source: AAPA
Turkish Airlines 1 lAN Airlines
Latin America
RPKs (mil.) ASKs (mil.) Pass. (000) Pass. LF (%) FTKs (mil.) Source: ALTA
1. January-July. 2. January-June. * Includes Regional operations. Includes AirTran. Source: ATW Research, direct airline reports.
JeT fueL PRice MOniTOR

SePTeMbeR 9, 2011
Jet fuel Price index $/b 346.8 126.8 302.0 999.7 % change vs. 1 week ago -0.8 1 month ago 4.2 1 year ago 42.5
JeT fueL PRiceS*

uS GuLf cOAST
300 282 264 246

September 9, 2011 JULY AUG US Gulf Coast 2.962
cts./gal. $/mt
cents per gallon
228 210 192 174 156 138 120 APR MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEPT
impact on this years fuel bill of the global airline industry:

new fuel price average for 2011: impact on 2011 fuel bill:
$127.9/b +61 billion
Source: estimated by iATA, Sourced from Platts.
*Spot cash markets (average). Source: US Dept. of Energy
atw | OCTOBER 2011
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9/14/11 11:50:35 AM
Contents
OCTOBER 2011 VOlUmE 48
NUmBER 10
24
pricing model. By aaron Karp
A i r Tr a n s p o r t Wo r l d
ON THE COVER
Fee Spirit
Florida-based LCC makes no apologies for its pioneering
30
options.
2011 SITA/ATW Passenger Self-Service Survey
49
30 49
Parts Start Talking
RFID technology is beginning to show results. By Henry Canaday
Passengers, who increasingly like booking flight tickets and checking in via self-service technology, want more By aaron Karp
55
safety.
Route makers
New avionic suites promise fuel savings and enhanced By Jerome Green Chandler
39
Wake-Up Call
55
The lessons of Air France flight 447 and other recent high-automation aircraft incidents have wide training implications. By Geoffrey Thomas
39
58
Green and Growing
Economic expansion and regional events are helping to fuel eco-aviation efforts in Latin America. By Edvaldo Pereira Lima
44
African Promise
44 58
The potential of the African market is undeniable, but realizing that potential is a challenge. By Cathy Buyck
DEPARTMENTS
1 5 9 18 20 22 Trends Editorial News Briefs Regional News Analysis Coming Events 23 61 67 67 67 68 People Facts & Figures Customer Services Advertisers Index Advertisers Websites Commentary
aTw | OCTOBER 2011 3
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Editorial
The Regulations That Bind

W
ith the start of the 2012 US presidential campaign, there has been a lot of heated talk about the role of federal government, which is mostly charged with over-reaching and creating more problems than it solves. The big exception, however, is the airline industry. When it comes to the business of how to get the flying public to their destinations safely, on time, in reasonable comfort and with their bags in synch, then it seems that the only experts are in Congress and government agencies. In its latest interference with airline operations, the US Dept. of Transportation (DOT) is proposing to greatly expand regulatory reporting requirements for the industry, including mandating that US carriers provide breakdowns of revenue generated by ancillary charges. DOT wants airlines to report more information on the amount and types of fees collected from passengers, including fees for preferred seat assignments and onboard services, as well as the number of checked bags and mishandled wheelchairs. Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood says passengers deserve better information about how airlines are performing, particularly when it comes to fees. Why? The US airline industry is deregulated, airlines are not a public utility provider, and what passengers care about is understanding how much they will pay and for what. Provided airlines make the price of their airfares clear and are equally upfront about additional fees, the public does not need to know the details of how the overall ticket price fits into an airlines business plan. The automotive industry is just one example of how unbundling is a common and accepted business practice in consumer marketing. Automobile dealerships typically offer a dazzling array of options on top of the basic, standard, no-frills model: the sports model, the comfort package, or a host of la carte options such as better stereo systems, GPS navigation, custom trims and chrome wheels. The buyer makes his or her decision based on what is desired and what fits their budget. Why should shopping for an airline ticket be any different? A passenger can choose the cheapest option that gets them from A to B, perhaps not at the most convenient time or by the shortest route; or they can customize a ticket with additional service options. Burdening the US airline industry with additional, timeconsuming and expensive requirements to detail and report these fees serves no useful purpose. But theres an even more important reason why this proposal should be scrapped: It doesnt address the things that passengers do care about. Take a look at our passenger self-service survey, based on an exclusive briefing by SITA on the results of its 2011 analysis of feedback from passengers at airports worldwide traveling on 73 airlines (page 30). The service aspect they overwhelmingly care most about is one that DOT already requires US airlines to report: on-time performance.
KAREN
WALKER
As passengers become more tech-savvy and have more access to smartphones and other gadgets, they are unquestionably showing greater interest in using the growing array of self-service options, from online check-in to mobile boarding passes. These are the type of offerings that airlines can choose to provide based on customer demand, using them as competitive differentiators if it makes sound business sense. The same is true of ancillary fees. An airlines concern should focus on what makes the best business sense. That is not DOTs concern. Theres another twist to the ancillary fees trend that is worth highlighting and is demonstrated by our cover story on Spirit Airlines, a US pioneer in the practice of unbundling (page 24). The Ft. Lauderdale, Fla.-based LCC sparked much controversyand outraged indignation from lawmakerswhen it moved to an ancillary fee business model which now includes charging for carry-on bags that are stored in overhead bins. But as president and CEO Ben Baldanza points out, the way Spirit chooses to operate has not hurt business, even when competitor airlines have not followed suit. Customers who choose Spirit seem to like the ability to pick-and-choose what they are prepared to pay for, while not being charged for services they dont want. Passengers who prefer an allin service can take their money elsewhere; and Spirit knows it. Thats free-market economics at work. And DOT has no business interfering with it.
atw | OCTOBER 2011 5
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parole.de
NewsBriefs
Financial results, new deals, and reports From every corner oF the globe
Air France-KLM splits widebody order
Air France-KLM revealed its long-awaited order for newgeneration, long-range aircraft in September, stating that its board approved 50 firm aircraft plus 60 options. A spokesperson confirmed to ATW that the 50 firm aircraft are evenly divided between Airbus A350s and boeing 787s. the first 787-9 will enter service with KLM in 2016 and the first A350-900 with AF in 2018. Later, both airlines will operate both types of aircraft, the group said. It is the companys first joint longhaul aircraft order since Parisbased AF and Amsterdambased KLM merged in 2004. the new aircraft will replace older widebodies as well as support growth. the group said it had not yet made a choice of engines to power its 787s. the A350-900s will be equipped with rolls-royce trent XWb engines, as it is the only engine provided for this aircraft by the manufacturer, it specified. the company said memoranda of understanding will be signed with Airbus, boeing and rolls shortly and finalized contracts are expected before the end of the year. the acquisitions are scaled to a size that can be financed through cash flow generated from group operations, it added.
787 CERTIFIED
the Boeing 787 was awarded FAA and eASA certifications in late August. FAA Administrator randy babbitt presented the US type certificate at a ceremony at boeings everett, Wash., facility. Patrick Goudou, executive director of eASA, presented the european type certificate. was an overall performance shortfall by the 747-8F. the carrier has 13 of the type on firm order. Performance metrics such as uplift, range and fuel burn were not in accordance with the performance guaranteed by boeing, the executive said. A boeing spokesperson declined to go into details on the nature of the contractual dispute, adding: We continue to work with cargolux and towards delivering its airplanes. She said she could not speculate about when the matter would be resolved. She also refrained from commenting on whether the delay would affect other 747-8F deliveries, both to cV and other customers. cV is scheduled to take its third 747-8F this month. cV became the 747-8F launch customer when it signed a contract for 10 in November 2005. It placed a follow-on order for three additional aircraft in March 2007 and holds two options and 10 purchase rights. Production and development issues several times delayed the 747-8F; cV was originally scheduled to get its first aircraft in the third quarter of 2009. In the event that the issues cannot be resolved in a timely manner, cargolux will source alternative capacity to fully meet customer demand and expectations ahead of the traditional high season, cV said.
ILFC files for IPO

Aircraft leasing giant International Lease Finance corp. (ILFc) filed a registration statement last month with the US Securities and exchange commission to launch an initial public offering that will pave the way for it to largely break away from troubled parent American International Group (AIG). AIG capital, the unit within AIG that holds Los Angelesbased ILFc, must dispose of more than 50% by value of its interest in us within two years after the completion of this offering, ILFc said in the Sec filing. In addition AIG capital intends to dispose of at least 80% by value of its interest in us within three years after the completion of this offering. AIG currently expects that AIG capital will reduce its ownership interest in us through one or more additional public offerings of our common stock and, possibly, through one or more privately negotiated sales of our common stock. ILFc said the number of shares to be offered in the IPO, the pricing of those shares and the timing of the offering are still to be determined. citigroup, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley are acting as the joint global coordinators of the offering. According to the Sec filing, ILFc earned net income of $143.2 million for the first
six months of 2011, more than tripling a net profit of $47.2 million in the prior-year period. It did incur a net loss of $495.7 million in 2010 (mostly owing to high aircraft impairment charges), reversed from an $887.2 million net profit in 2009. It earned $696 million in net income in 2008. Full-year revenue in 2010 totaled $4.8 billion. Our portfolio consists of over 1,000 owned or managed aircraft, as well as commitments to purchase 236 new high-demand, fuel-efficient aircraft and rights to purchase an additional 50 such aircraft, ILFc said in the Sec filing. We have over 180 customers in more than 80 countries. As a lessor independent from any airframe or engine manufacturer, we have flexibility to acquire aircraft models regardless of the manufacturer. Our size and global scale are distinct competitive advantages.
Albrecht leaves Star for Austrian

Star Alliance ceO Jaan Albrecht was nominated by Lufthansa (LH) Groups executive board to become chairman and ceO of Austrian Airlines (OS). It is anticipated that Albrecht, who has helmed Star for a decade, will start his tenure at OS by November. the Vienna-based LH Group carrier, which has struggled in recent years, reported a 2011 first-half operating loss of 63.1 million ($89.8 million). LH Group ceO christoph Franz said in a statement that Albrechts experience, his network and excellent industry know-how equip him ideally to master the huge challenges facing Austrian Airlines. Air New Zealand ceO rob Fyfe, chairman of Stars chief executive board, said, It is with regret that we are losing such a capable and high performing ceO. Star said it will launch a ceO search process. LH and OS are Star members.
Cargolux declines 747-8F deliveries

cargolux (cV) surprisingly declined to take delivery of the first two General electric Genx-2b67 powered boeing 747-8 freighters scheduled for last month, citing unresolved contractual issues between boeing and cargolux in respect of the aircraft. europes largest all-cargo airline said Sept. 16 that it has put financing of the aircraft, secured through JP Morgan via an ex-Im bank guarantee, on hold pending resolution of the dispute with boeing. A cV executive said there
Boeing officially launches 737 Max

boeings board of directors formally approved the launch of
atw | OctOber 2011 9
NewsBriefs
the re-engined 737, which the company said will burn 4% less fuel than the re-engined Airbus A320neo. the aircraft will be called the 737 Max and offered in three variants: the Max 7, Max 8 and Max 9. boeing said in a statement that it has order commitments for 496 re-engined 737s, to be exclusively powered by cFM International Leap-1b engines, from five airlines. It only identified American Airlines (AA), which previously committed to 100 of the aircraft as part of its massive split narrowbody order announced over the summer. boeing said deliveries of the 737 Max will start in 2017, though AA stated that it expects to be a launch customer for boeings re-engined 737 starting in 2018. boeing commercial Airplanes president and ceO Jim Albaugh said the manufacturer is seeing overwhelming demand for this new and improved version of the 737. He added that the company is working to finalize orders in the weeks and months ahead. boeing named bob Feldmann VP and GM of the new engine 737 family program. He most recently headed the surveillance and engagement division within boeing Military Aircraft. Michael teal, formerly VP and chief project engineer on the 747-8 program, was appointed VP, chief project engineer and deputy program manager for the re-engined 737. cFM said the Leap-1b engine will be a variant of its Leap-X family uniquely optimized for the 737. It added, cFM has been collaborating with boeing on various engine options for either a new or re-engined 737 aircraft since 2005. the two companies are now working to define the final Leap-1b engine configuration. ATW understands that boeings stated 2017 eIS for the Max is a worst case scenario and it fully expects to better it. It is also understood from insiders that the baseline aircraft being offered to airlines will be improved over time as a variety of technologies are proven.
Airlines push back against DOT

Airlines are pushing back hard against the US Dept. of transportations (DOt) proposal to greatly expand regulatory reporting requirements for the industry, including mandating that carriers provide breakdowns of revenue generated by various ancillary charges. DOts proposed reporting requirements would far exceed what businesses in other industries must provide to the federal government, the US Air transport Assn. (AtA) and the regional Airline Assn. (rAA) said in comments jointly filed with the department last month. burdening the US airline industry with excessive regulatory requirements would inhibit the industrys ability to generate jobs. DOt in July issued a Notice of Proposed rulemaking (NPrM) that called for requiring airlines to report more information on the amount and types of fees collected from passengers, as well as the number of checked bags and mishandled wheelchairs ... the proposal would revise current reporting requirements to improve data collection on the amount airlines receive from different, specific types of fees. transportation Secretary ray LaHood said, In an era of rising fees, passengers deserve better information about how airlines are performing, particularly when it comes to fees, baggage and accommodating passengers in wheelchairs. Airlines currently submit to DOts bureau of transportation Statistics (btS) quarterly reports detailing revenue collected from baggage and reservation change fees. but money collected from other ancillary revenue generators, such as preferred seat assignments and onboard sales, are not catalogued in airlines reports to btS. the proposed regulations are unjustifiable, AtA and rAA stated, calling them public utility-type reporting requirements that are not legitimate for a deregulated industry. the organizations added, Neither federal aviation law nor any other legisla-
tion instructs [DOt] to propose or issue [new reporting requirements]. that these unprecedented demands for commercial information are proposed as we approach the 33rd anniversary of the passage of the Airline Deregulation Act is particularly ironic. congress in 1978 eliminated the economic regulation of the domestic activities of US airlines ... the proposal ... would impose an outsize burden on the airline industry ... [including] demand[ing] significant, expensive changes to airline data collection and reporting programs. AtA and rAA charged that DOt has not been able to quantify a benefit for any of the proposals in part because basic preparatory work did not precede the NPrMs issuance. they called on DOt to withdraw the proposal.
Philippines was on track to launch its first routes by the fourth quarter, subject to regulatory approvals, and was bullish on the new joint venture with All Nippon Airways, AirAsia Japan, to be based at tokyo Narita. Japan is a huge, huge market with a very low Lcc penetration rate. Its our first venture outside of ASeAN, and were very excited about the prospects there, he said.
ASIA/PACIFIC Report
AirAsia Group posted a
slight year-over-year increase in profit before tax of MYr145 million ($48 million) for the second quarter. the airline group recorded a 15% increase in revenue to MYr1.08 billion. the second quarter is traditionally one of our weaker quarters. but despite the challenging environment in the industry, the team has come through again. costs have gone up, but much less than among others in the industry. Weve grown revenues, our cash balance is a healthy MYr1.9 billion, Group ceO tony Fernandes said. Fernandes emphasized the airlines load active, yield passive strategy is paying off, with lower average fares attracting higher numbers of passengers who, in turn, contribute to a higher takeup rate of ancillary services. Weve always maintained that instead of raising fares for higher yieldsrunning the risk of dampening air travelwed rather keep fares at reasonable levels so as to attract higher passenger loads and boost revenue through ancillary services, Fernandes said. He added that AirAsia
China Eastern Airlines (ceA) netted a first-half 2011 profit of cNY2.54 billion ($384 million) compared with net income of cNY1.94 billion for the same period last year. the Shanghai-based carrier said robust domestic market growth and the synergy effect of its merger with Shanghai Airlines were driving factors. Operating revenue jumped 18.1% to cNY36.35 billion while operating expenses increased 17.5% to cNY32.39 billion owing in large part to rising fuel costs that increased by 33.5% to cNY13.38 billion. Passengers carried rose 10.4% to 33.25 million with load factors averaging 78%, up 2.1 points. rPKs increased 13.6% to 48.56 billion and ASKs grew 10.49% to 62.3 billion. However, cargo traffic volume was down 7.31% to 666,490 tonnes. ceA chairman Liu Shaoyong said more uncertainties still remain because of the unstable global economic situation and volatile fuel prices. He predicted the carriers full-year profit would be slightly less than the cNY5.38 billion in net income earned in 2010. China Southern Airlines
(cZ) reported a net profit of cNY2.78 billion ($531.6 million) for the first half of this year, up 32.7% over the cNY2.08 billion earned last year. total operating revenue climbed 22.3% to cNY42.41 billion against a 22% increase in operating expenses to cNY35.3 billion, caused mostly by surging fuel prices. Passengers carried increased 6.1% to 38.44 million and load factor averaged 80.6%, a 2.7 point improvement over the same period last year.
10 atw | OctOber 2011
NewsBriefs
cargo traffic volume grew 4.7% to 536,000 tonnes. Daily aircraft utilization rate increased 0.07 hours to 9.63 hours. Looking to the second half of this year, the Guangzhoubased carrier said it expected domestic market demand to maintain growth. but the airline also warned that economic uncertainties still remain owing to fragile recovery of global economy and european debt crisis. Domestic inflation and high speed rail construction in china, will also exert some negative impact, the carrier said. net profit of NZ$81 million ($68 million) for its fiscal year ended June 30, down 1% year-over-year. the airlines fiscal second half was severely impacted by natural disasters, including earthquakes in Japan and New Zealand that resulted in a NZ$37 million loss after a NZ$112 million profit in the first half. ANZ said the christchurch earthquake in February, soaring fuel prices and foreign exchange losses caused the decline in normalized profit, which excludes movements in fuel hedges, to NZ$75 million for the year ended June 30, compared with NZ$90 million the previous year. ANZ ceo rob Fyfe said that operating conditions in the past six months were the most difficult ANZ has faced in a decade. the combination of reduced demand for travel as a result of the devastating christchurch and Japan earthquakes, additional capacity into christchurch to assist the relief effort and compassionate fares for those affected by the christchurch earthquakes resulted in an estimated $70 million negative impact on earnings, he said. operating revenue was up 7% to NZ$4.34 billion with a 4.3% lift in yield on international routes to NZ9.8 cents. Passenger numbers increased 6.3% to 13.1 million. Fyfe said the airline was reviewing its international operations with an eye toward shifting capacity and examining sales and marketing strategies. He noted changes would be rolled out before year end.
Virgin Australia (VA) incurred

a loss of A$66.6 million ($69.8 million) for its fiscal year ended June 30 compared to a profit of A$21.3 million in the year-ago period. the carrier blamed natural disasters in its home state of Queensland, the radical revamp of its product and the introduction of new aircraft for the loss. Virgin blue and its associate airlinesV Australia and Pacific bluewas rebranded Virgin Australia in May. More than 50% of VAs domestic operations are to/from or within Queensland, which was devastated by floods from late December through January and cyclone Yasi. the result also includes an A$36 million in unrealized foreign exchange loss due to the rising Australian dollar. the financial year 2011 was a year of enormous challenge and significant change as we began repositioning the company to ensure a more stable financial future. todays financial results reflect the impact of an unprecedented series of external events and reinforce the importance of our game change program strategy to increase our share of the more resilient corporate and government markets, ceo John borghetti said.
STRATEGIC BECOMES AIR AUSTRALIA
Brisbane-based Strategic airlines announced it will be renamed Air Australia later this year. the new image (an Airbus computer rendering of an Air Australia A320 is shown above) and livery was designed by cumminsross in Australia. modest 1.3% increase in passengers to 5.97 million, while Jetstar Domestic saw a 16.6% increase in passengers to 9.75 million. Yield increased 5.8% to 10.9 Australian cents. Australian federal transport minister Anthony Albanese said the government was adamant that QF would remain Australian-owned but that would not rule out an equity buyout with majority Australian control. In 2007, an international consortium led by the Macquarie bank and the Allco Finance Group launched an unsuccessful $11.1 billion bid to take over the airline. QF ceo Alan Joyce last month talked up the airlines future and said it had received no private equity take-over bid. Australia ranks 51st in the world by population but we have the 11th largest airline based on passengers and distance flown, Joyce said. We punch above our weight and we have made a profit in every year since privatization. However, QF declared no dividend. on Aug. 17, the Qantas Group announced the largest restructuring in its history with the aim of returning its international division to profitability. the program includes cutting routes, laying off staff, retiring aircraft and deferring deliveries as well as forming a new low-cost airline in Japan and a new premium airline to be based in Singapore or Kuala Lumpur. details were disclosed. the aircraft will be delivered between 2013 and 2015 and will be operated on routes within Asia as well as to points in Australia and the Middle east. the A330s will be powered by rolls-royce trent 700 engines and will join 19 already in service in the carriers fleet. celed an order for four Airbus A350-800s after shelving its long-haul ambitions, according to the Bangkok Post. PG president Puttipong Prasarttongosoth told the newspaper that the cancellation was in line with the carriers revised strategic plan to shelve its intercontinental start-up and prepare for domestic and regional expansion. the order was placed at the end of 2005. the carrier had planned to use the aircraft for flights to/ from europe. over the next five years, we would rather consolidate our domestic and regional operations, and that diminished the need for us to acquire larger aircraft, Puttipong said. It is understood the airline will focus on orders for more A320s and A319s for regional growth and rely on its codeshare partners to feed international passengers to its network.
Air New Zealand posted a
Bangkok Airways (PG) can-
Qantas (QF) posted a net
profit of A$249 million ($260 million) for its fiscal year ended June 30, more than doubling last years profit of A$116 million, but secondhalf profit slumped 83% to A$9 million. QF said the impact of natural disasters, including severe weather in Australia and the UK, earthquakes in New Zealand and Japan, and the chilean volcanic ash cloud, cost the airline A$244 million. Fuel costs increased 12% to A$3.73 billion. Full-year revenue was up 8% to A$14.9 billion while operating costs increased 7% to A$12.43 billion. Passenger numbers rose 7.3% to 44.4 million while rPKs increased 6% to 106.7 billion and ASKs were up 6.9% to 133.21 billion, easing load factor 0.7 points to 80.1%. Qantas International recorded a
Singapore Airlines firmed
up an agreement with Airbus to lease another 15 A330-300 aircraft. No other financial
Boeing last month increased its 20-year forecast for new aircraft demand in china by almost 700 aircraft compared to just 10 months ago. boeing projects that china will require 5,000 new commercial airplanes valued at $600 billion through 2030. In November
atw | october 2011 11
NewsBriefs
2010 the manufacturer forecast the china market demand to be 4,330 new aircraft valued at $460 billion. Sustained strong economic growth, growing trade activities, increasing personal wealth and income, as well as continued market liberalization will be the driving forces in shaping chinas air travel market, said boeing commercial Airplanes VP-marketing randy tinseth. boeing also predicted that small and intermediate twinaisles will make up a significant part of these deliveries. they are expected to constitute over 40% of the market in value, with some 1,040 deliveries anticipated. Major chinese airlines, taking advantage of their membership in global alliances, will gradually shift their focus from domestic to international markets to become competitive global players, tinseth said. tourism in china will also help fuel a strong demand for single-aisle aircraft, boeing said, with total deliveries of narrowbodies reaching 3,550 through 2030. lines website. of china (coMAc) chairman Zhang Qingwei stepped down from overseeing the company that, among various projects, produces the c919 aircraft. the move was made following his appointment by chinas central government in beijing to be acting governor of Hebei province. Zhang said in a statement that he will fully support the central governments decision. His tenure as chairman of coMAc started in March 2008. the c919 will enter the final design definition phase this year. Detailed design will be completed by 2012 and first flight is slated for 2014. According to coMAcs timeline, the aircraft should receive type certification by 2016, followed shortly thereafter by first delivery. prices to cNY7,670 ($1,200) per ton, down 1.48% from cNY7,785 in August, citing the decline in international fuel prices. this is the first price reduction this year. Fuel costs comprise more than 40% of chinese carriers operating expenses. china Southern Airlines, which operates 80% of its flights on domestic routes, could see its fuel costs fall by cNY230 million annually owing to the cut. Air china and china eastern Airlines, which operate 70% of their flights on domestic routes, also could see their annual fuel costs reduced by cNY210 million and cNY190 million, respectively. With the cut in domestic fuel prices, chinese carriers announced they would cut fuel surcharges correspondingly. chinas big three carriers are reportedly considering restarting fuel hedging, but they must first get government approval. was Virgin blue coo for five years until November 2010, left as the airlines new ceo John borghetti restructured the airline into a full-service operation. chin Yau Seng, who replaced Davis as ceo of tiger Airways Holdings, said that David brings with him a wealth of experience in the airline business and a proven track record as a leader and manager.
Commercial Aircraft Corp.
NORTH AMERICA Report

Delta Air Lines (DL) placed
an order for 100 737-900ers. the announcement had been anticipated. the deal, which is valued at more than $8.5 billion at list prices, is part of DLs fleet renewal effort to replace its aging, less efficient domestic aircraft. cFM56-7be engines will power the aircraft in an order valued at $2.2 billion at list prices. DL said it will begin taking deliveries of the aircraft in the second half of 2013, with 12 aircraft in 2013, 19 aircraft per year in 2014 through 2017, and the remaining 12 aircraft in 2018. each aircraft has committed long-term financing. the size and timing of the order will allow Delta to maintain its annual capital expenditure run rate between
Chinese carriers earned an
Lao Airlines, mainly a
turboprop operator, ordered two cFM56-powered A320s, becoming a new Airbus customer. With the arrival of the A320, Lao Airlines is moving into a new phase of its development, offering passengers a faster, more comfortable link to the world, the carrier stated on its website. the aircraft will fly primarily on international services [from Vientiane] to bangkok, Hanoi, Phnom Penh, Siem reap and Kunming. the A320s will have a two-class layout seating 126 passengers in economy and 16 in business class. the A320 will see Lao Airlines introduce a new level of premium service as we expand our international route network, Lao Airlines president Somphone Douangdara said. Aircraft delivery dates were not announced. the airline currently operates to 12 destinations, including six internationally. Atr 42s and 72s form the backbone of the carriers fleet, according to the air-
aggregate profit of cNY6.59 billion ($1.03 billion) in August, up 27.4% over a net income of cNY5.17 billion in the year-ago month, crediting domestic market growth. Passenger boardings rose 4.5% year-over-year to 27.6 million in August, but that growth rate is in sharp contrast with the double-digit growth rates that domestic airlines have maintained in recent years. Passengers carried on domestic routes increased 4.6% to 25.6 million while international boardings grew 4.3% to 2 million. Load factor improved 0.8 point to 85%. cargo traffic volume decreased 3.1% to 455,300 tonnes. Daily aircraft utilization reduced 0.3 hrs. to 9.6 hrs. As of Aug. 31, chinese airlines operated a combined fleet of 1,693 aircraft. During the month, the airlines added 23 aircraft, comprising one boeing 777-300, two Airbus A320s, one 737F, eight 737-800s, six 737-700s, four embraer 190s and one Gulfstream 450. the airlines phased out three aircraft, comprising one MD-90 and two e-145s. month cut domestic jet fuel
Tiger Airways Australia
(tt) appointed former coo of Virgin Australia Andrew David as the airlines new ceo, replacing tony Davis, who resigned in August. Davis was formerly ceo of tts Singapore-based parent, tiger Airways Holdings, but stepped down in July to get the troubled Australian carrier back into the air after it was grounded for almost six weeks owing to safety issues. David, who
FAct FILe
US Majors Traffic August 2011*

Airline Alaska American Delta JetBlue Southwest2 United-Cont.1 US Airways TOTAL RPMs (bil.) 7.6 -0.4 -0.3 5.8 0.1 -2.8 1.2 67.45 % chg. 2010 7.6 -0.4 -0.3 5.8 0.1 -2.8 1.2 0.2% ASMs (bil.) 2.89 13.45 21.73 3.32 11.32 19.82 6.41 78.94 % chg. 2010 5.4 -1.2 -0.8 4.6 4.2 -1.8 -1.3 0.6% LF (%) 88.3 85.3 86.9 87.3 82.6 86.6 87.4 85.4% +/- chg. 2010 1.8 0.7 0.4 0.9 -0.2 -0.8 2.2 -0.4%
The Chinese government last
Source: Airline reports. *Scheduled service, mainline only except Delta, which includes regional partners. 1. United continental Holdings combined results for UA and co. 2. Includes Airtran.
12 atw | october 2011
NewsBriefs
$1.2 billion and $1.4 billion over the next three years and will not impact the companys $1.2 billion of capital expenditures projected for 2011, DL said in a statement. the 737-900er is the perfect airplane to replace the older, less efficient airplanes in our single-aisle fleet, said DL president ed bastian. reliability and fuel efficiency are direct contributors to our financial performance. the 737-900er will provide us a reliable airplane with the lowest fuel burn in our domestic fleet.
UNI AIR ORDERS 10 ATR-72 600s
taiwan-based Uni air, a subsidiary of eva Air, announced an order for 10 Atr 72-600 aircraft, with deliveries scheduled to start in the third quarter of 2012. the regional carrier said it will use the new aircraft to progressively replace existing bombardier Dash-8-300s. passed a surface/air funding extension that to keep FAA fully operational through the end of January. the bill, first cleared by the House of representatives, went to President barack obama for signature into law Sept. 16, averting a partial FAA shutdown. Sen. tom coburn (r-okla.) had blocked the chamber from voting on the bill over concerns related to the highway funding portion of the measure, but relented after getting assurances about provisions in future surface transportation legislation. colleagues pushed him to back down, given the extensions wide support and the prospect of 4,000 FAA workers being furloughed for the second time in twomonth period. the extension of FAA funding through Jan. 31 is the longest in two years. the agency has operated via a series of temporary extensions since its authorization officially expired Sept. 30, 2007. House transportation and Infrastructure committee chairman John Mica (r-Fla.) said the 22nd temporary FAA funding extension must be the last, calling on members of congress to reach accord on a long-term agency reauthorization. Airports council International-North America president Greg Principato said, the continued short-term funding of the FAA, which has been going on since 2007, leaves airports, construction workers and the FAA itself held hostage to the whims of one or two members [of the Senate, where rules allow for blocking legislation]. this isnt the way to run a railroad, let alone the national aviation system.
US passenger airlines
capacity will be down 0.5% year-over-year in the fourth quarter after rising just 1.1% year-over-year in the third quarter, the US Air transport Assn. (AtA) said. briefing reporters in Washington, AtA chief economist John Heimlich pointed out that fourth-quarter domestic capacity for the 13 publicly traded US passenger airlines, projected at 167.4 billion ASMs, will be down 10.1% compared to the 2007 fourth quarter. conversely, international ASMs will be up 5.8% compared to four years ago. Driven by strong business traffic, US airlines are seeing demand hold steady, Heimlich said. All the talk of macroeconomic gloom hasnt manifested itself in a meaningful drop in demand, he explained. Demand appears sufficiently strong given the level of capacity thats out there. Its all about balance [between capacity and demand] and I think the balance is reasonably good now. While outside events and volatile fuel prices challenge US airlines, they comprise a leaner industry [compared to a decade ago] that is no longer going to carry any passenger at any cost at any time, Heimlich said. He added that jet fuel prices remain stubbornly high and projected that the average per gallon price of jet fuel will be $3.00 for the full year 2011, which would mark a 33.9% increase over $2.24 in 2010.
US Transportation Security
Administration (tSA) said it will spend $44.8 million to purchase 300 L-3 Security ProVision advanced imaging technology (AIt) body-scanning machines equipped with automated target recognition software that eliminates passenger-specific images. the agency said the move is aimed at enhancing privacy protections. It added, the [300] additional millimeter wave units will be deployed with the new software installed, and all millimeter wave units currently in use are in the process of being upgraded with the new software. currently, there are around 500 AIt machines deployed at 78 airports across the US, including L-3 units as well as rapiscan Systems Secure 1000 Single Pose devices. tSA has previously stated it plans to have 1,000 AIt machines deployed by the end of 2011 and 1,800 eventually in the field at US airports. It said the latest order is off of an existing contract with L-3 communications and includes the option to purchase an additional 200 units.
two 737-900ers will be delivered late this year. Delivery of all 35 737s ordered should be completed by the end of 2015, the carrier said. tK said the additional 737s are needed for ongoing fleet expansion. According to its website, the airline currently operates three 737-400s, 14 737-700s and 52 737-800s. tK also contracted PAtS Aircraft Systems in Georgetown, Del., to install two additional fuel tanks on each of the 737-900ers to increase aircraft range. the -900ers are scheduled to be used primarily on African routes, the carrier said. Meanwhile, tK reported a trY220.6 million ($126.4 million) consolidated net loss for the second quarter, increasing its first-half loss to trY543.6 million. For the same quarter last year, turkish Airlines recorded a trY231.3 million net profit. the airline said foreign exchange losses on financial leases related to its fleet expansion activities caused the loss.
The Irish government is
EUROPE Report
Turkish Airlines (tK) placed
a firm order for 20 boeing 737-800s and 15 737900ers. two 737-800s and
US Senate last month

considering the sale of its 25% stake in Aer Lingus (eI) because it is no longer seen as a strategic asset, transport minister Leo Varadkar said. No formal decision on that [eI sale] is made yet, Varadkar said in a radio interview, which was cited in Irish media. What I can say is that that stake in the past was held for strategic reasons and, having studied the matter over the summer, I dont think that really stands anymore. the divestment of the eI holding was included in a government-sponsored report published in April as part of the countrys commitment to raising approximately 2 billion ($2.8 billion) from sales of state assets to reduce high public debt. the report also listed the Dublin Airport Authority (DAA) and the Irish Aviation Authority as possible disposal targets. the sale of one of the terminals at Dublin airport might not yield much money for the government owing to the DAAs pension deficit, according to Varadkar. ryanair, which is eIs larg-
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NewsBriefs
est shareholder with close to 30% ownership, said in a statement it would not bid for the 25% stake if the government indicated such an offer would be unwelcome. It also said it would welcome and work with another financially strong airline/investor to restore shareholder value and even consider selling its own stake. Should another financially strong airline/investor acquire the governments 25% stake, ryanair would not rule out entering into discussions with that party for the subsequent disposal of ryanairs near 30% stake, subject to an acceptable agreement on price and maximizing shareholder value, it said. britains office of Fair trading (oFt) last year opened an investigation on whether ryanairs ownership of the stake in eI hampers competition in the sector. oFt said it expects to make a decision by oct. 26. Meanwhile, Aer Lingus Group reported a consolidated net loss of 13.1 million ($18.9 million) in the 2011 first half, narrowed from an 18.4 million deficit in the year-ago period, and upgraded its profit outlook for the full year. annually until 2015 and returning the carrier to profitability. the 4excellence program focuses on achieving excellence in four areas commercial, sales, operations and peoplewhich SAS said will be attained by continued cost reductions and a strengthened focus on productivity improvements. It is also restructuring its group management. SAS swung to a secondquarter pre-tax profit of SeK729 million ($114 million) against a loss of SeK600 million in the year-ago period, its best second quarter since 2008 and a result of costsavings measures, it said. Its previous strategycore SAS, in which the group focused on the Nordic region as well as its home markethas enabled the airline to reduce unit costs by 23% since 2008. In June, SAS announced Finnish subsidiary blue 1 will phase out its remaining five Avro rJ-85 aircraft and focus on operating boeing 717s, resulting in a maximum of 85 job redundancies at blue1. the first tender for the sale of a 51% stake in the airline, proffered in 2008, failed owing to a lack of interest, particularly given the governments high asking price of 51 million. the new strategy calls for offering investors a holding in a new company called Newco that would be free from debt. Presumably, Jats assets (which include an aging fleet comprised of 737-300s and Atr 72-200s) would form the basis for the airline.
AFRICA/ MIDDLE EAST Report

an order with embraer for 10 e-190s, plus purchase rights for a further 16 e-jets, as part of its long-term expansion plan to fly to all African capital cities by the end of 2013. the order follows a letter of intent signed at the Paris Air Show in June. Deliveries are scheduled to begin in the third quarter of 2012. the embraer 190 fleet will be key in ensuring Kenya Airways becomes the leading carrier on the continent, interlinking African cities andthrough our Nairobi hubconnecting Africa to the world, KQ Group MD and ceo titus Naikuni said. the embraer 190s excellent range, efficiency, size and superior level comfort will allow us to increase frequencies and start new routes, along with improving the overall passenger flying experience throughout Africa. the e-190s will be configured in a dual-class layout with 96 seats, comprising 12 in business class and 84 in economy. All seats will be IFe-equipped with individual touch screens. the finalized e-190 order is in addition to KQs LoI with GecAS for the lease of two new boeing 777-300ers, expected to be delivered at the end of 2012early 2013 if the contract is firmed, Naikuni said. the Nairobi-based airline has also concluded an agreement for a 747-400F expected to arrive next month. KQ additionally has nine boeing 787s on firm order plus four options. Its Dreamliner deliveries are scheduled to begin in the fourth quarter of 2013. the carrier currently operates five e-170s and two e-190s, with a further three e-190s (under an existing deal) to be delivered by early 2012.
Kenya Airways (KQ) finalized
Monarch Group, parent
of Monarch Airlines (Zb), confirmed it has canceled its order for six boeing 787s. Zb said it reassessed its decision to purchase the aircraft following the strategic decision to focus as a schedule airline on strengthening and developing its short-haul network, and the delay to the delivery of the boeing 787 from 2010. appointed former Scandinavian Airlines deputy ceo Vagn ove Sorensen to succeed Lufthansa (LH) executive board member and Group Airline chief officer Stefan Lauer as bmi chairman, yet another move indicating that LH Group is interested in selling its loss-making UK subsidiary. LH has reportedly mandated banks to look into a potential sale of bmi. We are open to take external advice in the event we do take the decision to sell bmi, an LH spokesman said. He reiterated the divestment of bmi has always been an option and declined to comment on whether it had appointed a financial services firm as an advisor on the sale. Lauer told ATW that LHs options do include selling the loss-making airline. Several airlinesincluding british Airways (bA), Virgin Atlantic and Flybehave expressed interest in acquiring bmi or part of bmi, which comprises bmi mainline, the Lcc bmibaby and bmi regional. International Airlines Group (IAG), parent of bA and Iberia, said it is still interested in acquiring bmi mainline, which would enable bA to take advantage of bmis takeoff and landing slots at London Heathrow.
British Midland (bmi)
SAS Group president and

ceo rickard Gustafson announced a new strategy, SAS 4excellence, aimed at reducing costs by 3%-5%
The Serbian government is once again trying to sell financially troubled, state-owned Jat Airwaysor at least find an investor willing to operate and manage a new belgradebased airline. Jats total debt is estimated at about 300 million ($433 million), multiple Serbian media outlets reported.
FAct FILe
European Airline Traffic August 2011

Airline Aer Lingus AF KLM AUA Group1 British Midland Finnair IAG
2
RPKs (billions) 1.55 20.56 1.83 0.77 1.9 15.83 20.2 2.42 3.25
% chg. ASKs % chg. Load 2010 (billions) 2010 factor (%) 1.0 7.6 0.3 -9.0 11.1 2.2 5.7 0.8 5.7 1.25 23.98 2.30 1.07 2.5 16.65 24.87 3.14 3.81 2.7 6.1 4.8 -0.6 13.3 2.1 8.4 2.4 7.0 86.1 85.7 79.7 72 64 84.9 87.1 77.0 85.3
+/2010 0.4 1.2 -3.6 -6.6 -2.0 0.1 2.6 -1.2 -1.0
Lufthansa3 SAS Group4 Swiss
1. Includes Austrian, Austrian Arrows and Lauda. 2. Includes British Airways and Iberia. 3. Includes Lufthansa, LH Regional and Lufthansa Italia. 4. Includes SAS, Wideroe and Blue1. Source: Airline reports
Next moNth iN ATW Mro Market review 787 Production challenges
atw | october 2011 17
RegionalNews
Bombardiers Scott retires
Bombardier Commercial Aircraft president Gary Scott will retire Oct. 1. Bombardier Aerospace president and COO Guy Hachey will lead the companys commercial aircraft unit until a replacement is named, the Canadian manufacturer stated. Scott said he plans to devote more time to my family. He cited the development of the CSeries program as a particular achievement and said the companys foray into the narrowbody aircraft sector is tracking well and with the program at this advanced stage, I feel very comfortable leaving it in the capable hands of my colleagues. In an interview with ATW earlier this year, Scott said the challenge of building up the CSeries program was more daunting than achieving a planned 2013 EIS. My bigger concern is meeting the high demand well have for this aircraft in the initial years, [which will require] ramping up production as quickly as we possibly can, no doubt to at least [a build rate of] one aircraft per day. Wed like to get [to a one-per-day rate] within five years and hopefully sooner, he said. Scott, a veteran of Boeing and CAE, joined Bombardier in 2004 as president-new commercial aircraft program. He was promoted to his post in April 2008 when the company merged its regional and new aircraft development/ manufacturing into one unit. as United Eagle Airlines (UEA). In March 2009, Sichuan Airlines invested $30 million in UEA, for a 76% stake. In late 2009, these shares were sold to COMAC and Chengdu Communications Investment Group. Following this ownership change, UEA placed a firm order for 30 ARJ21s. In January 2010, the airline was renamed Chengdu Airlines. The ARJ21, which to date has received 340 orders, is in the test-flight phase to gain CAAC certification. It is also working toward gaining US FAA certification, paving the way to put its international marketing plan into action.
CSERIES 300
Computer-generated rendering of CSeries 300. Retiring Bombardier Commercial Aircraft president Gary Scott cited developing the CSeries program as a particular achievement. start in the third quarter of 2012. The regional carrier said it will use the new aircraft to progressively replace existing Bombardier Dash-8-300s and said they will be equipped with advanced technologies such as a glass cockpit avionics suite and redesigned cabin, featuring lighter-weight, slim-line seats and larger overhead bins. B7 chairman Tony Su said, The new ATR -600 series will enable us to give our passengers the highest standards of comfort and, at the same time, optimize our fuel and operating costs. even adjusted for the ash cloud in Iceland in April 2010, and noted that UK passengers contributed significantly to this success. In the 2011 first half, Wideroe operated 393 million RPKs, up 27.4% year-over-year, on a 24.8% increase in capacity to 664 million ASKs. Load factor grew 1.2 points to 59.2%.
TRIP, Uni commit to 28 ATR 72-600s

Brazils TRIP Linhas Aereas and ATR announced that TRIP has committed to 18 new ATR 72-600s, plus options for a further 22. Nine ATR 72-600s will be ordered directly from the French-Italian turboprop manufacturer while the other firm -600s will be leased from Air Lease Corp. and GE Capital Aviation Services. The first aircraft will enter into service in October and will be configured for 68 passengers. We have been successfully operating several types of ATRs for more than a decade. Purchasing ATR-600s is then a logical continuity in our partnership with ATR, TRIP CEO Jose Mario Caprioli Dos Santos said. We will be glad to introduce the newest improvements of these aircraft into our fleet, and to enhance and expand our air service offer with even higher standards of performance and comfort, as expected by the growing Brazilian market. TRIP has a fleet of 47 regional aircraft, a mix of Embraer E-175s/E-190s and ATR 42/72s operating on a network spanning 85 destinations. With the entry into service of the 18 firm ATR 72-600s, TRIP will become the largest ATR operator in the world with a fleet of 51 ATRs. Separately, Taiwan-based Uni Air (B7), a subsidiary of Eva Air, announced an order for 10 ATR 72-600 aircraft, with deliveries scheduled to
Kuban Airlines signed a
Wideroe posts strong first half

SAS Groups Wideroe recorded its best half year ever with a pre-tax profit of NOK187.2 million ($34.5 million) earned in the first six months of 2011, more than tripled from the NOK61.8 million ($11.4 million) earned in the year-ago period. These excellent figures are the result of profitable growth, with more departures and even more passengers, Wideroe MD Lars Kobberstad said. The number of hours flown by Wideroe during the last half year has increased by 19% and the company has simultaneously enjoyed a 27% increase in passengers. The Norway-based regional carrier said its year-over-year improvement is significant,
ARJ21 may be delayed

Commercial Aircraft Corp. of China (COMAC) may postpone its first ARJ21 delivery to Chengdu Airlines (EU), according to an industry insider, who said some key parts havent passed flights tests. The aircraft is scheduled to be delivered at the end of the year. An EU spokesperson told ATW that the carrier has not been informed of any delivery delay and was moving forward with the original delivery plan. COMAC is the majority EU stakeholder with a 48% holding, while Sichuan Airlines holds 40.97%. EU was launched in 2004
18 atw | OCTOBER 2011
Letter of Intent with Sukhoi Civil Aircraft Co. (SCAC) for 12 Sukhoi Superjet 100/95Bs. Deliveries are scheduled to begin in 2012. Kuban Airlines is based at Krasnodar International in southern Russia and operates scheduled and charter flights to more than 30 destinations in Russia, CIS,Europe and the Middle East. It owns 12 Yakolev Yak-42 aircraft and last year acquired four Boeing 737-300 aircraft. It intends to phase out all its Yak-42s by 2016. The airline carried 666,454 passengers in 2010, up 21.71% on 2009.
Oxford Aviation Academy (OAA) has forged a fiveyear training agreement with Olympic Air to provide Bombardier Q400 training solutions and simulator facilities at OAAs training center at Arlanda Airport in Stockholm. The agreement also includes options for Dash 8-100 training, which will be offered and made available in late 2011 through OAAs Oslo training facility.
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Analysis
Presidential spotlight is a chance to get wider backing for high-tech air traffic management system.
US airlines, the Dept. of Transportation and FAA must tackle the issue of creative financing that would allow at least the majority of airlines to jump onboard sooner rather than later. And third is public promotion; NextGen has to be packaged as an exciting, high-tech endeavor that lays out the benefits in real terms and attracts new innovators and investors. An idea related to this was raised by Boeing Commercial Airplanes (BCA) president and CEO Jim Albaugh, who told the Aero Club in Washington that the US should make the creation of a nextgeneration air traffic management system a rallying project that maintains the countrys position as a global leader in the aerospace industry. Albaugh said he feared the US aerospace industry faced an intellectual disarmament as its skilled workforce retired, became unemployed, or moved to countries that offered better job incentives. Albaugh said that turning NextGen into a major US aerospace project would dramatically improve air transportation and make airlines 15% more efficient. We need to think big and we need to think bold, Albaugh said. He is right, but theres something else: NextGen partners also need to think fast. Karen Walker
NextGens Moment
For the White House, the effort known as NextGen to transition air traffic control to a superefficient, satellite-based system has become a silver-lining moment. For most Americans, NextGen was a meaningless term barely two months ago. What they know all too well, however, is that the economic crisis is a black cloud over the nation that has left millions of Americans jobless. So in his speech to Congress in September unveiling his American Jobs Act, President Barack Obama presented NextGen as part of a package of new transportation and infrastructure program opportunities that would boost economic health and job creation. Building a world-class transportation system is part of what made us an economic superpower. And now were going to sit back and watch China build newer airports and faster railroads? the president asked. The presidents plan includes $50 billion in immediate investments for highways, transit, rail and aviation to modernize infrastructure. NextGen specifically would get an extra $1 billion to fasttrack the program as a jobs program that will also stimulate economic growth. Linked to this, the US Dept. of Commerce is creating a new committee that
will target opportunities to promote and sell NextGen technologies and products to non-US markets. Announcing the NextGen Vendors Group (NVG), Dept. of Commerce principal deputy assistant secretary Maureen Smith said that through NVG, Commerce will reach out to industry and other agencies to identify overseas market opportunities. After all, given the global nature of aviation, NextGen is unlikely to reach its full potential absent coordination with ATC modernization initiatives around the world, particularly the European Unions Single European SkyATM Research (SESAR) program. Smith, who unveiled the NVG at a NextGen Institute annual public meeting and industry day in Washington in September, said the group would also identify any specific trade barriers that stand in the way of NextGen product sales and work to remove them. Aerospace Industries Assn. president and CEO Marion Blakey has welcomed the move. This is something we can certainly use as we move into the international arena. We need advocacy of government, Blakey said. So NextGen partners government agencies, industry, airlines and airports have what will likely be a
one-off opportunity to push the program beyond the quagmire of acronyms, funding disputes and diverging goals in which it has been mired for some eight years. Another overriding problem that the program has suffered is its lack of clear and tangible payoffs to those outside of the specialized core of NextGen Institute partners. Most Americans have no idea that the GPS technology in their cars is more sophisticated than the ground-based, 1950s-era technology that is used to safely fly them to their Thanksgiving reunions. Three elements are critical to leveraging the opportunity that has been provided to NextGen. First is fast action; the White House urgently needs to show results on its jobs plan, so any investments it makes must deliver quickly. Second is financing; given the precarious financial state of most
Coming Events
Oct. 2-4 11th Annual Airport Noise Mitigation Symposium, St. Louis, Missouri. Email jim.johnson@aaae.org; Visit www.aaae.org. Oct. 2-4 17th World Route Development Forum, Berlin, Germany. Call +44-0-161-234-2711; Email pr@ routesonline.com. Visit www.routesonline.com. Oct. 3-5 AAAE - 17th Annual Central Europe/North America Airport Issues Conference, Krakow, Poland. Call Spencer Dickerson at Spencer Dickerson at +1 703-824-0500; Email sdickerson@ aaae.org; www.aaae.org. Oct. 4-6 AVSEC World 2011, Amsterdam, Netherlands. Call +1-514874-0202; Email avsecworld@iata.org; Visit www.iata.org. Oct. 5-6 Aircraft & Engine Finance & Leasing USA Conference, Chicago, IL. Call Emily Dobson at +44 (0)20 7921 8300; Email emily.dobson@ubm.com; Visit www. usaaircraftfinanceandleasing.com. Oct. 10-12 17th Annual Central Europe/North America Airport Issues Conference, Sheraton Krakow Hotel, Krakow, Poland. Call +1-703-824-0500; Email sdickerson@aaae.org. Visit www. aaae.org. Oct. 10-14 World Passenger Symposium, Shangri-la Hotel Singapore. Call +1-514874-0202; Email Huntingtonm@iata.org. Visit www.iata.org. Oct. 11-14 Inter airport Europe 2011, Munich Trade Fair, Germany. Call +44-01727-814-400; Email europe@interairport.com. Visit www.interairport.com. Oct. 12-13 ATPS/Co-Brand 2011 Payments & Co-Brand Summit, Toronto, Canada. Call +1 305-328-8598; Email admin@airlineinformation.com; www. airlinepayments.com. Oct. 14 From Pioneers to Presidents: Celebrating a Century of Women in Flight, London, UK. Call +44-0-207670-4345; Email conferences@aerosociety.com. Visit www.aerosocietychannel. com. Oct. 17-21 Aging Airplane Scheduled Maintenance Requirements Seminar, Seattle, WA. Email Lorraine Ortiz at lorraine.ortiz@boeing.com. Visit www. boeing.com. Oct. 18-20 ICAO Aviation and Sustainable Alternative Fuels Workshop, Montreal, Quebec. Call +1 514 954 8219; Email env@icao.int. Visit www. icao.int/SUSTAF. Oct. 26-28 16th Annual Regional & Business Aviation Industry Suppliers Conference, InterContinental Montelucia, Paradise Valley (Scottsdale), AZ. Call Joanna Speed at +1 310-5959403; Email jspeed@speednews.com. Visit www.speednews.com. Nov. 13-17 Dubai Airshow, Airport Expo, Dubai, UAE. Email michele.van@ dubai.aero. Call +971 (0) 4 286 7755. Visit www.dubaiairshow.aero. Feb. 13, 2012 ATW's 38th Annual Airline Industry Achievement Awards, Singapore. Email stephanie.krasnoff@ penton.com. Call +1 301-755-0168. Visit atwonline.com. For more events, visit atwonline.com and click on Upcoming Events.
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A J Walter Aviation named Christian Duhain a non-executive dir. ACSS appointed Kenneth Meyer VP-program management & customer support. AFI KLM E&M hired Miguel Chiang as VP regional sales Central/South America and Amar Chouaki VP regional sales southern Europe. Air Berlin selected Martin Biesel as dir.intl. traffic rights & political representative. Air Malta appointed Philip Saunders CCO and Nicholas Xuereb CFO. Air Transport Assn. of America elected Christine Burgeson SVP-Global Government Affairs. Alaska Airlines chose Daniel Chun as regional mngr.-sales & community marketing. Ascent Aviation Services Corp. promoted Melisa Ley to controller. Embraer named Robert Stangarone VP-corp. comm., North America and global platform dir.promoted Flavia Sekles to coatings and Brent external comm. dir. Wright global platform Emirates Airline appointed dir.-transparencies. Thierry Antinori executive VP. Saab Sensis Corp. Etihad Airways hired promoted Marc Melanie Quinn as sales Viggiano to president mngr.-North England. & COO. FlightSafety International Singapore Airlines promoted Kelly Allender to Embraer named Robert appointed Jackson mngr.-Tucson Learning Center Stangarone VP-corp. Tai to its Board as and Mitch Alexander mngr.comm., North America. an independent nonDaleville Learning Center. executive dir. International Bureau of The Professional Aviation Aviation added Kane Ray as an aviation Maintenance Association selected analyst. Roger Sickler as chairperson and Jeff Jervis B. Webb Company selected Gruber as vice chairperson. Jerome Lavault as intl. sales dir.-airport UCA Holdings added Mike Brand to its systems. board of directors. KfW IPEX-Bank elected Delphine UPS named Jim Barber president-UPS Deroche VP-North America. Navtech chose William Rathert as senior Europe. US Airways added William Post to its dir.-sales ops. board of directors. PPG Aerospace named Mark Cancilla
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atw | october 2011 9:37 AM 23 8/18/11
Fee Spirit
Florida-based LCC makes no apologies for its pioneering pricing model
By aaron Karp
OW WOULD SpIRIT AIRLINES pRESIDENT and CEO Ben Baldanza ideally price airline tickets? Id love to have a world someday where you [the passenger] pay for your [share of] fuel and everything else is an option, he said, explaining that US airline passengers now generally pay about one-third of their total cost for fuel, one-third for the base ticket price and one-third for ancillary charges.
all services including checked baggage, following in the footsteps of European carriers Flybe, Ryanair, Aer Lingus and Norwegian. Basically, we made the decision back in 2006 that we were going to compete for customers on the basis of price and price alone, Baldanza said. Once we made that decision, it became a little bit easier to do things. If we want to have the lowest price, why would we put fewer seats on the plane? And then we said, Why would we charge people for things that they may not want or need? So this led to a process where we looked at all parts of the airline product, both traditional and what we offered, and said, Where are the points where we can separate this
Im not going to be [Ryanair CEO] Michael OLeary and say, We can get that [core] fare down to zero. But we can lower that further by making it more and more optional, he said, adding that everything other than fuel being optional is probably not realistic. But right now, two-thirds is the [non-optional] and one-third is optional. If we can switch that ratio, I think that would be great for consumers. Such nontraditional thinking has guided Ft. Lauderdale, Fla.-based Spirit since 2006, when Baldanza, who had held senior positions at US Airways and Grupo TACA, took over as CEO. Spirit in 2007 became the first US airline to begin unbundling fares to offer a la carte pricing, imposing fees for nearly
out from the base fare, charge an incremental fee to those people who want it and lower the fare for those who dont. And thats what weve done. Spiritwhich began life in 1980 as Detroit-based Charter Onehas gained a reputation in recent years, fairly or not, for nickel and diming passengers, but Baldanza strongly insisted that the airlines customers are the biggest beneficiaries of its ultra-low cost business model. In 2006, we competed as a traditional airline, he said. The average fare we charged customers was $104 and the extras that we soldchange fees, excess baggage weight fees, liquor on board, things that airlines were [traditionally] charging foramounted to about $5 [per passenger on average]. So the total price was $109 in 2006 for Spirit. Now fast forward to 2010. For that year, the amount we collected from extra fees went from $5 to $35, but at the same time the average ticket price on Spirit went from $104 down to $77, meaning that the total price customers payticket plus all the extras was $112 in 2010, up from $109 five years ago. So in that five-year period, despite much higher labor costs, much higher fuel costs and higher regulatory compliance costs, our total [average] cost paid by customers only went up
$3. In that same period, Southwests [average] fare went up 30%. JetBlues went up over 20%. What weve done is give the customers the power to save money . . . Its great for Southwest to say, Bags fly free, but if youre not checking bags, you should ask yourself, Why am I paying for them? [as part of the base ticket price].
that were very much tied to too much carry-on baggage, he explained. In part, we and others perpetuated that by charging for checked bags and not charging for carry-on bags. People who were acting rationally started to carry more onboard. And its burying your head in the sand to say, Thats not a problem. So we made a
money. The reasonable proposal, made by the carrier in April 2010, was to impose a $45 fee on carry-on bags stored in overhead bins starting in
proposal that we thought was a fair one, a reasonable one, saving people
In addition to keeping fares low, the business model has also led to consistent profitability, aggressive capacity expansion and the launch this year of an initial public offering. Spirit operates a fleet of 26 Airbus A319s (configured for 145 seats), seven A320s (178 seats) and two A321s (218 seats), all powered by International Aero Engines V2500s. Daily it operates 175 flights to over 45 destinations, about half in the US and half in the Caribbean and Latin America. It has 33 A320s on order for delivery by 2015, including two this year and seven in 2012. We believe we can maintain profitability at a high margin level as weve done for the last four years while growing the airline 15%-20% by capacity annually, Baldanza said, emphasizing that the carrier wont grow just for the sake of getting bigger. Well make sure that those [new] airplanes are deployed in the most profitable way possible, he said. You know, we have very high financial targets for every route flown by every airplane. Were not interested in an airline where half the airplanes in the network subsidize the other half. Were interested in having every airplane we fly, every route we fly, contribute positively to the company.
Sparking Controversy Spirit has been pushing the ancillary
revenue envelope since 2007, both in terms of la carte pricing and finding other ways to generate additional revenue, such as advertising in aircraft interiors. In March 2007, it became the first US carrier to impose checked baggage fees, charging $5 (a small fee relative to current-day norms) for each of the first two bags for online check-in and $10 for airport check-in. Nearly every US airline eventually followed; checked bag fees are now a standard revenue generator for the industry. According to US Dept. of Transportation data, US airlines collected $784 million from baggage fees in the 2011 first quarter. But Baldanza realized by early 2010 that the checked bag fees had created an imbalance, driving passengers to carry too many bags aboard. We had very serious aircraft delays
August 2010. A political firestorm ensued. US Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood called Spirits carry-on bag fee outrageous and ridiculous, adding that it showed the airline doesnt care about their customers. Some lawmakers threatened legislation to outlaw the fees. Under pressure, a number of major US airlines publicly committed to not charging for carry-on bags. With Baldanza holding firm, Spirit started imposing the carry-on fees as planned and they have now been in place for more than a year. The initial controversy has faded away. The response to that announcement last April was certainly greater than we expected it would be in terms of the emotion that issue brought out, he said. The fact that we lowered our fares at the same time, just as weve done with other charges, seemed to get washed out a bit. How has it worked in practice? Its a wonderful, wonderful system and I think customers appreciate it and really like it now, Baldanza said. Its very easy to board the airplane. You get off very quickly. There are fewer bags onboard. Anyone who carries a bag boards the airplane first and they always find space right above their seat for the bag. So theres not the angst you see on every other airline, where you see customers searching for a place to put their bags or the flight attendant says, Sorry, sir, Ive got to check that. That just never happens on Spirit anymore. We saw a 6-8 minute [improvement in] boarding time for airplanes as a result of this. Some of BaLDaNZa
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We dont make decisions based on what our competitors do. Spirit Airlines president and CEO Ben Baldanza
that were able to pull out of the schedule. Some of that just gives us a little more time to recover in the day. LaHood and Congress backed off from imposing a regulatory edict once a number of other airlines had pledged to not start charging for carry-on bags, believing that would put enough of a check on the renegade Florida airline. But that was a misunderstanding of Spirit and its operating philosophy, Baldanza said. One of the things that the politicians [assumed] was that if the whole industry doesnt match, [Spirit] wouldnt be able to do it, he explained. They didnt realize that we dont make decisions based on what our competitors do If everyone matches us or no one matches us, its not going to affect what we do . . . We lowered our checked baggage charge to encourage [passengers] to check, and we felt very strongly about it. The political pressure didnt change our FACT FILE First-half 2011 capacity increased 24.2% to 4.63 billion ASMs while traffic heightened 31.7% to 3.93 billion RPMs. Load factoron aircraft with high seat numbers (Spirits A320 has 28 more seats than a JetBlue Airways A320)was 85%, up 4.9 points year-over-year. The cost picture is impressive. First-half CASM including fuel did increase 7.2% to 9.66 cents, but CASM excluding fuel lowered 6.6% to a mere 5.54 cents (Spirits CASM exfuel in 2005 was 6.66 cents). We maintain a robust view of the company even in a high fuel cost environment, Baldanza said. We have a natural hedge in the business in the fact that were a more efficient operator of our equipment than all of our competitors What that means is our fares dont have to go up as much as the rest of the industry when fuel prices increase In general, were raising more money when fuel costs are lower than higher, of course. But on a relative basis, as fuel prices increase were going to do better than the other guy because we dont need as much of an increase in our ticket prices to cover our costs. to investors following a slightly disappointing IPO. In late May it launched the IPO and began trading on NASDAQ under the SAVE symbol, but the public offering price of $12 per share of common stock was well below the $14-$16 planned. It consisted of 15.6 million shares, 22% fewer than the 20 million it said it was offering in early May. The carrier raised $187 million from the IPO. It had offered guidance of raising $276.3 million in net proceeds in early May and last year predicted the IPO would net $300 million. Baldanza said the IPOs lower-than-expected pricing is more representative of the overall economic environment than Spirits financial prospects. I think the IPO went quite well given the fact that theres investor reluctance to invest in an airline in a high fuel price environment, he commented. The fact that we were able to float the IPO during a high fuel price environment showed that many investors thought our business model is more resilient than others. The numbers back up Spirits contention that, from a business standpoint, it is outperforming the rest of the US industry, according to US Air Transport Assn. chief economist John Heimlich. He pointed out that the 13 publicly traded US passenger airlines incurred a combined $290 million net loss in the first half of 2011. Six of the 13 were profitable for the years first six months, with three carriersAllegiant Air, Alaska Airlines and Spiritoperating with 5% or better profit margins. These guys are doing something very rare in this business, which is returning the cost of capital, Heimlich said. Even other US LCCs considered successful, Southwest Airlines and JetBlue Airways, had operating margins of just 1%-2% in the first half of 2011. Speaking of Spirit, Heimlich said, Whatever people say about them, theyve obviously got a loyal clientele that allowed them to go public.
Spirit Selected Financial Results

($, millions) Revenue Expenses Operating profit (loss) Net income (loss) Source: Spirit Airlines 2006 543 608 (65) (81) 2007 763 731 32 1 2008 787 769 18 33 2009 700 589 111 84 2010 781 712 69 72 2011 (1H) 509 447 62 25
IPO Launch It is that kind of push Baldanza is now making
view because we believe were doing the right thing for consumers . . . In hindsight its proven to be a really, really good idea. There are absolutely expenses related to carry-on baggage and so if you factor that into the [base ticket] price, the price therefore has to be higher. Or you separate it out.
Earning Money Baldanza can counter critics by pointing to
the bottom line. Spirit earned a net income of $24.8 million for the first half of 2011, significantly widened from a $1.2 million profit in the 2010 first half, which was negatively affected by a five-day pilots strike that eventually led to new collective bargaining agreement for flight deck crew. Firsthalf 2011 operating revenue surged 40.7% year-over-year to $508.6 million as non-ticket revenue leaped 78.2% to $174.9 million. In fact, Spirit generated more revenue during the six months than in the entire year 2005, when its revenue totaled $484.4 million. After posting losses of $76 million and $80.7 million in 2005 and 2006, respectively, it turned the corner on profitability, earning $1.4 million in 2007 and $33.3 million in 2008a year in which few other US airlines were in the black. Earnings totaled $83.7 million in 2009, representing a net after-tax margin of 12%. Net profit slipped to $72.5 million in 2010 owing in part to the pilots strike. Nevertheless, Spirit stayed profitable all the way through the turbulent 2007-2010 period.
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2011 SITA/ATW PASSenger Self-ServIce Survey:
Beyond Booking and Check-In

By aaron Karp
Passengers, who increasingly like booking flight tickets and checking in via self-service technology, want more options
An IT BE THAT AIRLInES, THROUGH THE deployment of self-service technologies, have mastered the flight ticket booking and check-in process? Whether using self-service kiosks in airports, his or her own computer or a mobile device, the modern air passenger appears to be very much like bypassing the old channelscall centers, travel agents and airport countersfor booking tickets and checking in for flights.
Sao Paulo Guarulhos (GRU), Mumbai (BOM), Frankfurt (FRA) and Beijing (PEK)plus Abu Dhabi (AUH), new to the survey this year. Some 2,457 passengers traveling on 73 different airlines were interviewed at airport gates before boarding their flights. About 9% of the passengers were flying in first/business-class and 5% were traveling aboard LCCs, while 38% were transit passengers. The check-in process is very important [to passengers], but the level of improvement needed is there but not significant, SITA director-strategy and market intelligence Catherine Stam, who studied and analyzed the survey results, said. There seems to be some level of satisfaction with booking and checking-in . . . The [survey] popula-
The newer methods have become more efficient and user friendly over the last several years, reaching the point where passengers generally dont notice problems in the booking/checking-in portion of the air travel journey. But they are starting to wonder why the rest of the airport/flight experience isnt as smooth. These are among the findings by SITA after analyzing the results of its 2011 Passenger Self-Service Survey. A leading provider of IT business solutions and communications services to the air transport industry, SITA exclusively shared the results of its sixth annual survey with ATW in a briefing at its US headquarters in Atlanta. The 2010 survey was conducted during the spring at five of the airports used for last years endeavorAtlanta (ATL),
tion is not complaining too much. It seems like airports and airlines have started to do a pretty decent job on check-in, and now passengers are noticing other areas where improvement is needed. Passengers overall satisfaction is still influenced most by the standard metric airlines have been judged by since long before self-service kiosks appeared in airports: on-time performance. Flight punctuality is a key contributor [to passenger satisfaction] that needs significant improvement, Stam said. Among the main contributors to a pleasant trip, staff friendliness is the second factor quoted as needing improvement . . . Among less important contributors to a pleasant trip: clear information, Wi-Fi access, prompt bag arrival and the inflight experience clearly need improvement. Interestingly, only 18% of interviewed passengers thought that security checkpoints needed improvement, according to Stam. Only 6% said passport control/customs clearance needed improvement. Among the passengers who do think improvement is needed in those areas, more than 80% said clearing security or customs should take less than 10 minutes.
Smartphone Trend What jumped out

from this years survey, particularly
when compared to past results, is the rapid emergence of smartphones. The percentage of interviewed passengers carrying smartphones has almost doubled over the last year [from 28% in 2010 to 54% in 2011], with over half of all interviewed passengers now carrying a smartphone, Stam noted. She said this reflects broader trends worldwide, pointing out that global smartphone shipments leaped 73% yearover-year in the 2011 second quarter. There has been a phenomenal growth in the penetration of smartphones in the general population and that is reflected by passengers, she said, noting that 74% of first/business-class passengers carry smartphones. We are
now in the smartphone era in terms of passenger communications. You can definitely see that airline passengers are iPhone people. Its not an age thing, its not a business versus leisure thing. Everyone likes to carry an iPhone. A total of 35% of surveyed passengers carrying a smartphone had an iPhone, while 28% carried a BlackBerry. Were now dealing with a passenger who is equipped with a mobile device and expects airlines and airports to communicate with them directly, Stam said. Talk to me and give me what I need is the message were getting from passengers. But . . . they also want to do things on their own. Passengers are telling us, I want to be
independent. Its my trip and I want to organize it. The airline industry has moved to take advantage of this, with the most common communication to passengers mobile devices taking the form of SMS notifications regarding flight status. According to the SITA survey, 41% of business travelers receive SMS notifications from airlines and over 50% of first/businessclass passengers and frequent flyers (those traveling by air at least 10 times annually) receive text messages. But the desire to receive such information outpaces what airlines can deliver. Just as in 2010, 66% of passengers surveyed said they wanted to receive SMS messages from airlines. However, only 34% had actually received a text from an airline, although this was still up from 30% last year. In Abu Dhabi, 90% dont receive SMS notifications, but 59% of these passengers would like to sign up for the service, Stam said. Similarly, only 17% of passengers surveyed had used a mobile boarding
pass, but 73% expressed a desire to do so. In the 2010 survey, 11% had used a mobile boarding pass with 37% wanting to use one. Some 28% of frequent flyers and 26% of smartphone users have boarded with a mobile pass at least once, according to the 2011 survey. Half of [frequent flyers/smartphone users] use mobile boarding passes whenever the service is available, Stam said. The main reasons for not using a 2D barcode boarding pass are preference for tangible paper and the complexity/risk of the mobile-based procedure . . . 2% of all interviewed passengers tried unsuccessfully [to use a mobile boarding pass], either because their mobile device was incompatible
or because they did not understand the procedure . . . Its being adopted, but there are still people who are not comfortable with it. Meanwhile, the percentage of passengers interested in receiving messages on mobile devices from airlines/airports on shopping deals at airports continues to rise, but at a slow pace. About 8% of respondents wanted such messages in 2009, rising to 17% in 2010 and 19% in 2011. Over 80% are just not interested, Stam said. Its probably because you dont know to what extent youll be inundated with this stuff . . . In terms of airports and their tenants, the message is to continue communicating through traditional channels.
[Mobile messaging] is just not there yet . . . Younger passengers and infrequent [two or fewer air trips per year] travelers show more interest. Passengers are expressing a strong desire to use Wi-Fi at airports. Stam noted that 66% of surveyed passengers said they would use Wi-Fi in an airport if it is available for free, with 92% of passengers in Beijing saying they would connect to free Wi-Fi. Interest decreases with age, from 83% of 18-24 year olds to 63% of 55-plus, she said. It is good news in terms of being able to offer mobile applications to passengers and giving them access to a whole host of information while they are at the airport.
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Booking Online Overall, 64% of interviewed passengers had booked their trip online. More than 80% of ATL passengers had done so. Smartphone users [71%] are more likely to book online than plain mobile phone users [54%], Stam said. Younger passengers are more likely to book online, with 73% of 18- to 24-year-olds having done so, versus 51% of 55-plus year olds. Some 52% of survey respondents who booked online had done so via an airline website, which remains a key tool for booking online, Stam said. Around 44% had booked through an online travel agency while 3% used a social-media booking tool. Ninety-nine percent of Abu Dhabi passengers who had booked online has used the airline website, she noted. This, of course, creates new selling opportunities for airlines, which increasingly use their websites to offer services in addition to flight tickets, such as hotels and rental cars. The interest [among passengers to book additional services through airlines] is there but actual usage low, Stam explained. Theres not a whole lot of pick up yet . . . What we think is that people are shopping [other sites online] for good deals. Airlines need to be more competitive with whatever else is offered [on
their sites] because passengers are doing comparison shopping. Theyre not just staying [at the airline website] to book all triprelated services. Across the board, passengers interest in using airline websites to do things other than book flight tickets exceeds actual usage. For example, 79% said they would be interested in using airline websites to modify reservations, but just 45% had done so. More than twice as many passengers (63%) desire to purchase preferred seating through airline websites than have actually done so (30%). While 55% would like to book a hotel through an airline website, only 25% had done so. Almost half (49%) said they would be interested in renting a car via a carriers website, but just 19% had done so.
Self-Serve Check-In A small majority (55%) of surveyed passengers used self-service technology to check in, but this was significantly up from 40.5% last year.
Both online and airport kiosk checkin increased, while off-airport kiosk check-inat a hotel, downtown airline office, train station, convention center, rental car officeis showing early signs of adoption, Stam said. People are using kiosks. Even business travelers [who are generally most aware of online check-in options] are using them. It seems to indicate where were going: The counter becoming . . . used for complex situations and providing special customer care . . . Whos using the counters? Well, the infrequent travelers in general. She noted that 63% of surveyed passengers who travel by air twice or less annually checked in via an airport counter. The survey found that the number of passengers checking bags continues to gradually drop. In 2008, 82% of surveyed passengers had checked at least one bag, dropping to 70% in 2010 and 67% in this years survey. Seventy-five percent of transit passengers checked in a bag, Stam said. Unsurprisingly, frequent flyers check in fewer bags, with 52% of those who take 10-plus trips per year having checked in a bag versus 80% of those who take two or fewer trips per year. Part of what determines the percentage of passengers checking in through self-service options is availability. At some airports, such as ATL, most passengers are forced to at least attempt to check in via self service. At AUH, on the other hand, more than half of surveyed passengers said self-service check-in was not available. (Interestingly, 13% of AUH passengers had used an off-airport bag check.) Even passengers dealing with agents may go to airport counters less frequently. The survey found that 1% of passengers checked in via roaming airline staff carrying mobile terminals. The roaming agents are going to become more common, Stam said. Theyre agents who are completely equipped with a mobile device able to check in passengers. Were starting to see those appear. I know its a very low percentage, but it is visible. Airline staff are changing roles in airports. Its a new trend. Generally, passengers are open to new options. Interviewed passengers display a positive attitude towards new self-service offers, with self-boarding generally attracting the highest interest, Stam said. Around 70% said they would be interested in a self-boarding gate, while 65% were positive about a self-service bag drop, 63% would like to track their checked bags location from a mobile device and 62% are willing to tag their own checked bag.
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Berlin Brandenburg Airport The new gateway of Europe
n 2010, Berlin Airports passenger gures broke all previous records. For the rst time, the company reported more than 22 million passengers in a single year. Berlin Airports performed better than the average of international commercial airports in Germany for the eighth time in succession. Less than a year before the opening of Berlin Brandenburg Airport these numbers show the potential of the new hub with the IATA-Code BER.
is growth of services has been enabled by the implementation of a hub by airberlin in May 2010. Since May 2010 the number of passengers using Tegel as transfer airport has more than doubled. is clearly shows the good geostrategic location of Berlin. e new airport will become Europes third biggest airport which is served by Oneworld as soon as airberlin will join the alliance presumably in April 2012. With the opening of the most modern European airport on 3 June 2012 the German capital region will have the ideal infrastructure to accommodate transfer tra c on a large scale. e new airport will o er state-ofthe-art transfer facilities that are catering for passengers and airlines needs. Berlin traditionally has a strong focus towards Eastern Europe. In addition, the favourable location in Central Europe is
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strategically advantageous ight times to Eastern Europe and Asia are one hour shorter than to established hubs in the West of the continent. Airlines bene t not only from reduced ight times but also from an aviation market that has almost doubled within the last 8 years. e intention is clear BER is meant to be a next generation hub airport with a strong focus on European tra c as feeder for long-haul connections. At the same time airlines can pro t from the tremendous growth the German capital is experiencing in recent years not only in terms of visitors but also in economy. e new airport is ready to serve airlines that are expanding to Europe. e World Routes this year is a perfect opportunity for airlines to discover the advantages BER has to o er.
22,3 20,9 20,0 17,1
Berlin has never been connected any better with the rest of the world than it is today. In 2011, 80 airlines y to and from Berlins airports, with a particular focus on the inner-European network. 161 destinations of which 121 are in Europe in 52 countries are served. e choice of long-haul services from the German capital is also constantly rising. Non-stop services from Tegel to New York, Bangkok, Phuket, Beijing and Doha, the Passengers capital of Qatar exist. In winter 2011 airberlin in mil. has started operations from Berlin to Dubai, Miami and Mombasa. With the 2011 summer ight schedule, airberlin is now also o ering a non-stop service to New York.
Passengers in Millions
20
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12,5
13,3
10
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WakeUp Call
The lessons of AF447 and other recent highautomation aircraft incidents have wide training implications
By Geoffrey thomas
Rescuers recover parts of the air France airbus a330 from the atlantic Ocean.
University of Southern California engineering professor and aviation safety expert Najmedin Meshkatis summation of cockpit automation has a sobering ring as the aviation industry comes to grips with the interim accident reports of Air France flight 447, the Airbus A330-200 that crashed into the Atlantic Ocean on June 1, 2009, killing all 228 people onboard. The latest interim report, issued by the French BEA in late June, prompted particular focus on cockpit automation and flight crew interface after detailed analysis of the cockpit voice and flight data recorders that were recovered earlier this year. The report, though emphasizing that BEA does
not assess blame, indicated that the pilots were inadequately trained and failed to properly identify a stall situation or react promptly to it. While BEA reiterated that a key factor in the crash was the inconsistent speed measurements from the aircrafts pitot probes, once an emergency situation arose and the autopilot disengaged, the two on-duty copilots conducteed no explicit task-sharing, BEA said. Even though a stall warning alarm was triggered, neither of the pilots made any reference to the stall warning and neither of the pilots formally identified the stall situation, BEA stated. At one point, it noted, the stall warning was triggered continuously for 54 seconds.
Studies have shown that automation is even more problematic because it amplifies crew individual differences and it amplifies what is good and what is bad. University of California engineering professor Najmedin Meshkati
BEA recommended that regulatory authorities re-examine the content of [air transport pilot] training and check programs, and in particular make mandatory the creation of regular specific exercises aimed at manual airplane handling [including] approach to and recovery from stall, including at high altitude. So while the investigation and the debate on pilot-cockpit interface and appropriate training continue, there is a new focus on how automation has changed flight crew training procedures. Meshkati warns that the aviation industry and its regulators have become star struck by technological solutions as a result of modern aircraft like the Boeing 777 having fatalityfree records in commercial service. We have become complacent by thinking that technology will solve all the problems, Meshkati said. In an ATW article Back to Basics (ATW, 6/09, p. 51), published just three days before the loss of AF447, Meshkati warned that geewhizz technology may be masking a deterioration and deskilling in basic flying ability and that the lessons learned by generations of pilots may be lost to the new breed of pilots. Meshkati sees AF447 as the aviation industrys Three Mile Island. Business as usual is over, he said, adding that many regulators do not yet fully understand the problem of technology, automation and the pilot interface, and are lagging industry because of manpower and funding issues. Meshkati, a member of the committee that analyzed the BP Deepwater Horizon oil disaster off the US Gulf Coast, notes that human ingenuity can now create technological systems whose accidents rival in their effects the greatest natural disasters, sometimes with even higher death tolls and greater environmental damage. The effects of human error on these systems is often neither observable nor reversible, therefore error recovery is often too late or impossible, Meshkati said. Meshkati says the aviation industry must go back to basics and rethink how pilots interface with and are trained for the modern cockpit. Many technology systems failures implicated in serious accidents have been traditionally attributed to operators and their errors. Consequently, for the problem of technology systems safety, an engineering solution has been suggested. For instance, many systems designers postulate that removing humans from the loop is the most convenient alternative for the reduction or even elimination of human error and therefore consider automation the key to the enhancement of system reliability.
Furthermore, the automated devices themselves still need to be operated and monitored by the very human whose caprice they were designed to avoid. Thus the error is not eliminated but only relocated. Flight Safety Foundation president Bill Voss agrees that AF447 was a wake-up call. If AF447 had happened elsewhere in the third world to a lesser airline, the industry might have glossed over it. But Air France is a sophisticated and proud airline, the A330 a stateof-the-art aircraft flying between two major cities. We really have to step forward now for the cause is far, far deeper and we must build the skills. It is time fix it, Voss said. Voss sees the problem as a failure to adjust training to the real demands linked to a gap that is filled by incomplete information and assumptions. Pilots think that they can get into a high speed situation as easily as you could in the 707 and that is absolutely not the case. Aircraft are totally different aerodynamically today, he said. Voss also notes that while the standard stall recovery procedure is to increase power and put the nose down, it is also true for an Airbus that half stick back and takeoff-go around power will recover the aircraft because of the envelope protection.The aircraft will do remarkable things, he explains. Voss, who spent time at Airbus in the A330 simulator after BEAs interim report was published, said that what is lost in the transcripts of the accident is how hard it is to get the aircraft into the position that the AF pilots did and then hold it there. You have to really strive to do what these pilots did. The initial pull-up was 7,000 ft. a minutethis wasnt minor. Voss sees another training aspect that needs close attention. Its just not the training for that can be overridden by the person they sit next to on the line within a few months. Training doesnt make a seasoned captain; other captains do, Voss said. We need to put procedures and processes in place so that it isnt de-graded on the line. Voss notes that with reduced vertical separation minima at 1,000-ft. separation means that pilots are not allowed to hand-fly an aircraft over 24,000 ft. Skills are being lost. We must go back and look at our training, for it is not consistent real world circumstances. There is a much higher risk of loss of performance at high altitude or degraded performance, like on QF32, than engine failures, Voss said. And regulators need to give up some of the sacred cowswhich they are reluctant to do.
Lessons of QF32 Qantas Airbus A380 check captain David
When automation is the problem But Meshkati warns that
in many cases, automation only aggravates the situation and becomes part of the problem rather than the solution. In the context of aviation, studies have shown that automation is even more problematic because it amplifies crew individual differences and it amplifies what is good and what is bad.
Evans was on the flight deck training another check captain when QF32, an A380, suffered a failure of its No. 2 engine shortly after takeoff from Singapore Nov. 4. According to Evans, the near disaster with QF32 raised a number of scenarios that the airline had not trained for, such as cabin communication. Events after landing were potentially almost as serious as those in the air. After QF32 was nursed back to Singapore nearly two hours into the flight and with the crew dealing with 53 electronic centralized aircraft monitor (ECAM) messages, the No. 1 engine could not be shut down because of dam-
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aged wiring and had to be drowned on the ground by the Singapore Airport fire fighters. At the same time, fuel was spewing from the damaged wing only yards away from brakes that were red hot indicating 900C. Complicating matters, the air conditioning failed and the aircraft electrical system reversed to essential power, leaving the crew with one serviceable VHF radio. We had never trained for this scenario, Evans said. We also had our cabin crew on high alert for two hours in the cabin ready to initiate a full evacuation if circumstances deteriorated. Commenting on recurrent training set by the regulator, Evans notes that he cannot remember any Qantas aircraft ever losing an engine at V1. But training is now changing to take in black swan [unusual upset] events. Reflecting on his QF32 experience compared to AF447, Evans notes that the Qantas crew of five, with 70,000 hours of experience including two check captains, had time to deal with the 53 ECAM messages. We had time, but AF447 was descending at 8,000 ft. a minute. Evans said that the sheer volume of information presented to the modern aviator means he must prioritize his or her time between the presented information and the real world. Modern technology is inherently very reliable. However, its very reliable nature can lure an unsuspecting aviator into a false sense of security. Adding blind faith into this information stream, especially if you are a Gen X or Y can have catastrophic results. AF447 may be an example of this. Two young pilots were at the controls of a state-of-the-art aircraft and faced with a loud and in-your-face false warning of an overspeed. This would have taken all their attention and was therefore reacted to. There were other cues present that were not reacted to, simple things like aircraft attitude and thrust settings, Evans said. I see young pilots coming through Royal Australian Air Force air cadets that lack basic skills because they learned to fly using Flight Simulator, Evans said. With Flight Simulator most dont buy the rudder pedals and thus their flying skills once they get into the real world are degraded. Evans also points out that many flying courses today only teach pilots about the onset of a stall. When I learnt to fly my instructor took me into a stall and a spin and you experienced all the sensations and had to recover. We need to have aerobatics as part of the course, he said. Evans has also found that because many pilots learn on Flight Simulator on a desktop PC, they are focused only on
what is in front of them, so peripheral skills are lacking. Another observation by Evans relates to the modern glass cockpits that are appearing on light training aircraft. When I am training young pilots, they are often transfixed on the primary flight display and do not scan other instruments such as the engine. They just dont look around. This strikes a chord with captain Robert Sumwalt, a former chairman of the human factors and training group at Air Line Pilots Association, International, and now a board member of the NTSB. The NTSB has found that lack of monitoring of instruments is still a major factor in accidents, Sumwalt said. In 2002, Sumwalt co-authored a paper Enhancing Flightcrew Monitoring Skills Can Increase Flight Safety, which found that effective crew monitoring and cross-checking can literally be the last line of defense. At the time Sumwalt cited NTSBs examination of 37 accidents, which found that 84% involved inadequate crew monitoring or challenging. Sumwalt added in the report that research conducted to support the Flight Safety Foundations approach and landing accident (ALA) reduction efforts revealed that 63% of the reviewed ALA accidents involved inadequate monitoring and cross-checking. Additionally, inadequate monitoring was a factor in 50% of the controlled flight into terrain accidents reviewed by ICAO. The BEA AF447 report said that the pilots were confused by multiple warnings in the cockpit and chief investigator, Jean-Paul Troadec, said black box data showed the crew had 4.5 minutes during which they could have corrected the aircraft stall, and that if they had responded quickly, the situation was salvageable. Evans notes that ECAM warnings can be confusing, but says pilots can cancel everything and simply go to the status page. There is a short cut, he said. I did a simulator session recently involving volcanic ash taking out all four A380 engines and getting into the cabin, like BA9. Fire warnings went off in the cargo hold and cabin, but ECAM logic puts fire ahead of the engines. We of course knew there was no fire, but I had to get rid of six fire warnings before I could get to the engines which were the priority. ECAM wasnt helping and added to the confusion. It taught us some lessons. While there is strong debate over the AF447 interim reports, it seems clear that there was a level of confusion as to what was
happening in the cockpit in those last minutes, which corresponds with a NASA study on aviation automation. The NASA Research Center was based on Royal Air Force Institute of Aviation Medicine data by Marianne Rudisill in 1995 that surveyed more than 1,000 pilots from 20 airlines and aircraft manufacturers about pilots attitudes and experience with flight deck automation. The strength of the study was that most respondents had flown aircraft from basic cockpit types like 727s through to glass 2 types such as A320s and 747-400s. It found the general consensus was that safety is increased with automation, but automation may lend a false sense of security, particularly with inexperienced pilots. Pilots reported that there was a higher sense of insecurity during an automation failure and a general temptation to ignore raw information. The most worrying aspect was that pilots said their colleagues were becoming complacent and relied too much on the automation but that was often because airline standard operating procedures mandated reliance on automation. In May, FAA Supplemental Notice of Proposed Rulemaking called for greater emphasis on using full-motion flight simulators with crews working together in handling real-world emergencies in its. FAA administrator Randy Babbitt said the proposal represents the most significant shift in philosophy and training in 20 years. The new rule will require flight crews to demonstrate they can apply the skills, not just master them, Babbitt said. The key aspect of the change is that all flight crews will receive training in recognizing, avoiding and recovering from stalls and upsets. This new type of training will provide a more robust evaluation of pilots in [simulated] real-life scenarios, Babbitt said. The proposal came after the NTSB investigation and a congressional inquiry into the February 2009 stall of a Colgan Air flight 3407, a Bombardier Q400, that crashed in Buffalo, N.Y., and killed 50. Babbitt said the pilot training emphasis will shift to focus more on comprehensive competence rather than mastery of individual skills. The new training will require a more realistic and coordinated effort among the crew [being trained]. It will be a lot more like flight. I think the key piece here is that some of the simulation ability [now available] allows us to go past [training for] recognition and avoidance of a stall. Now you can actually put someone in a
stall scenario and let them recover, Babbitt said. The proposed change would require that pilots be trained as a complete flight crew, coordinate their actions through crew resource management and fly scenarios based on actual events. BEA, meanwhile, has set up a human factors working group to analyze crew actions and reactions during the last three phases of AF 447, particularly in relation to the stall warning, cockpit ergonomics, and man-machine interface. The human factors group comprises three BEA investigators specializing in human factors, a human factors aviation consultant, a psychiatrist specializing in risk analysis, an A330 test pilot and a type-rated A330 pilot. It will also consult with Airbus and Air France.
Evidence-based training In 2007, IATA launched its training and qualification initiative to update and modernize the training of current and future pilots and engineers to accurately reflect the needs of flight deck operational procedures. IATA, airlines and manufacturers are working closely and in collaboration with ICAO, and the final draft program is expected to be ready for sign-off by ICAO in November and to be applicable from 2012. Civil Aviation Authority of Australias manager, flying standards, Roger Weeks, who is CASAs representative on the TQI initiative, says the group has examined a host of data over the past four years, both accident and operational, to identify precise trends and problems with all generations of aircraft so that training can be tailored to changing demands and issues. For instance we have studied flight data for over 3 million flights, examined the NTSB database from 1962 and examined 22 aircraft types and looked at over 20,000 simulation evaluations, Weeks said. A major test had been to identify criticalities in each generation of airliner. The program is looking at the following areas for pilot training: Flight operations; Evidence based training; Instructor qualification; Multi-crew pilot license; Selection criteria; Flight simulation training devices. However, Weeks cautions that it will be up to individual states to adopt the new training regime. Much of what is being canvassed was adopted in Australia 20 years ago under competency-based training, which puts the emphasis on performing rather than just knowing. Weeks said that since QF32 and AF447, CASA and the Australian airlines have been working on training for more black swan events.
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AfricAn Promise
The potential of the African market is undeniable, but realizing that potential is a challenge.
By Cathy Buyck
Egyptair Express is one of several african carriers to operate Embraer jets.
hE FUTURE OF AFRICAN AVIATION IS A topic of heated debates, increasingly also on the continent itself where airlines, industry associations and authorities agree they need to address safety issues, upgrade infrastructure and widen liberalization. The fact that these and other issues are overtly recognized and are more than an idle chitchat over a Dawa, the famous African cocktail which is said to be so potent that it will cure almost everything (Dawa means medicine or magic potion in Swahili), is a cautious indication that air transport in Africa might be entering a new and more mature phase of development.
RPKs] annually over the 2011-2030 period and their fleets in service will double, from 655 to 1,325 aircraft, Duquesnoy said, citing improving economic conditions as the main reason for the high traffic growth levels. African gross domestic product (GDP) is forecast to grow 4.4% per year over the next 20 years and the population is forecast to grow annually 1.9%, from around 930 million to 1.36 billion. Embraers long-term market outlook for the region is in line with the expec-
The picture is positive and bright, Mathieu Duquesnoy, Embraers VP airline market, Middle East and Africa said at the Connectivity in Africa seminar in Nairobi in July, which was organized by Embraer and was the companys first event of its kind on the continent after similar gatherings in other emerging regions like Latin America and the Middle East. African carriers should register a strong performance in passenger demand of 5.4% [expressed in
tations of Boeing, which forecasts a 5.1% annual rise in RPKs and a 5.2% annual growth in RTKs for 2011-2030. The above-world average GDP growth of the African economies and continued increased world trade with countries like China, India and the US are really driving more direct air services and boosting the demand for new airplanes, Boeing Commercial Airplanes head of market analysis Mike Warner said, noting that the International Monetary Fund predicts that over the next five years, seven of the worlds 10 fastest growing economies will be in Africa. Boeing forecasts that African airlines will need some 800 new aircraft over the next 20 years, with slightly more deliveries in the second decade as growth progresses, equating to a market value of about $100 billion. Our Africa forecast has certainly increased over the last five to ten years, Warner said. In our 2000 forecast, we estimated 480 deliveries for the time period [2000-2019] and about half, or 240 deliveries, were for the first decade [2000-2010]. As a comparison, over the last 10 years, actual jet deliveries into Africa have been 255. Almost two-thirds of new deliveries will be in the narrowbody segment and will serve essentially intra-African routes. But we also see strong growth in longer-range products; about 30% of
our unit forecast is going into widebodies to connect Africa with Europe, China, India, South-East Asia and also North America. The 787 will be an ideal tool for allowing African carriers to operate efficiently in smaller long-haul markets, Warner said. Boeings backlog with African airlines stood at 85 aircraft by the end of August, including a 737-800 with the new Boeing Sky Interior to RwandAir delivered that month. The Kigali International Airport-based carrier became the first African carrier to own and operate Boeings Sky Interior. This new interior will set RwandAir apart from our competition by bringing a new, unmatched flying experience to our valued customers, RwandAir CEO John Mirenge said. RwandAir, which is an IATA member and is therefore IOSA certified, placed an order for two -800s in May last year. It secured a $60 million financing facility from the ExportImport Bank of the US for its two new narrowbodies. RwandAir, which began operations in December 2002, belongs to the growing group of African airlines that comply with international standards and procedures in their operations. They see this as a good strategy for enhancing shareholder value through profitability and providing better service levels against competitors. I benchmark permanently against more than 200 carriers in the world on all aspects of the business, Kenya Airways (KQ) Group managing director and CEO Titus Naikuni told ATW last year (ATW, Nov. 2010, p. 28). Naikuni said that the Plimsoll World 300 Global Top Passenger Airlines Industry Analysis is his daily tool for comparing KQ with peers on liquidity, profitability, revenue, employee performance, trading stability and gearing ratios. KQ, which is one of the few publicly listed and consistently profitable carriers in Africa, was the worlds first airline to operate a 737-700 with blended winglets, in 2002, and it has a firm order for nine 787-8s plus four options, as part of its strategy to operate a young fleet. It recently topped up its order book with ten firm E-190s, plus purchase rights for a further 16 E-jets. Royal Air Maroc in August recorded another first for the continent when it took delivery of ATRs first ATR 72-600, for which it was the global launch customer. African operators had a backlog order of 215 aircraft by the end of 2010, comprised of 190 jets and 25 turboprops. The total operational fleet in Africa last year was 1,141 (of which 65 aircraft were Eastern-built), according to Association of African Airlines (AFRAA) data. Embraer statistics show that 655 aircraft (500 jets and 155 turboprops) were operating scheduled passenger flights. The average age
of the regions Top 10 CiTy pairs in aFriCa ( July 2011) fleet operating on scheduled City pair seats Flights passenger Cape Town - Johannesburg 54,258 352 flights was 14 Durban - Johannesburg 36,792 259 years. Aircraft abuja - lagos 30,983 233 in the 91-to120 seat range port Harcourt - lagos 13,657 105 are the oldDurban - Cape Town 13,640 101 est in Africa, nairobi - Mombasa 10,934 131 comprising 80 Johannesburg - port Elizabeth 10,819 81 aircraft with an average age Cape Town - lanseria 10,769 65 of 21 years. 8,895 65 st. Denis De la reunion According Mauritius to Boeings sharm El sheikh - Cairo 8,138 86 market outToTal 198,885 1,478 look, one third of proSouth Africa is the most dense air transport country in Africa with half of the top ten city-pairs. Despite the unsettled political situation jected new in Egypt, the Sharm El Sheikh - Cairo route continues to experience deliveries to heavy traffic and makes up the 10th busiest route in Africa. African carrisource: AFRAA/ Innovata ers will be for the replacement of older airplanes and about two thirds will be to support growing African traffic. One of the dynamics in Africa is the aging fleet. To be competitive with their European rivals and with the emerging Middle Eastern rivals, certainly in an era of high fuel prices, African operators need to replace the older airplanes with newer-generation models, Warner said. Airlines realize this and they know that to remain competitive, especially against some of the emerging threats, they need to have the right planes, the right tools to help them do that.
SAFETY CONCERNS
Africa once again had the worst safety performance in the world in 2010, according to IATA, which pointed out that African carriers are 2% of global traffic but 23% of global western-built jet hull losses. Expressed in the standard accident rate, Africa recorded 7.41 hull losses per million flights on Western-built jet aircraft, or 12 times the global average of 0.61 hull losses per million flights on Western-built jet aircraft. IATA African members performed better. Both IATA and AFRAA mandate IOSA certification for membership.
Foreign Competition The intercontinental competitive landscape is a sore spot with AFRAA, which represents 33 airlines that provide 83% of total international traffic carried by all African airlines. Africa is being invaded by operators from outside the continent. The [intercontinental] sky is mostly dominated by European and Middle East carriers and new airlines from Asia, North America are entering African markets, AFRAA secretary general Elijah Chingosho said. Data from AFRAA and Innovata for July show that African airlines on average were responsible for 43% of capacity, or 244,550 seats per week, on Europe-Africa routes, compared to 57% or 328,974 seats provided by foreign operators. On Middle East-Africa routes, Africas second-largest intercontinental market, the equation is even more unbalanced, with African airlines operating 38% of the weekly seat capacity and non-African carriers operating 62% (Emirates, for example, last year operated to 19 destinations in Africa with a 1.2 average daily, according to OAG data). Conversely, on routes to North America and Asia, which are relatively small markets, African airlines supplied the majority of weekly seats, 68% and 76% respectively. While African airlines face huge competition on intercontinental routes, the situation is radically different on intracontinental routes. Some 71% of all intra-African routes
One way for African carriers to be more competitive on intercontinental routes may be to establish a stronger intra-Africa network. Embraer VP airline market, Middle East and Africa Mathieu Duquesnoy
featured in ACIs top 30 of busiest airports. Although traffic (there are about 1,800) are served by just one airline and in the first-half contracted owing to the political disturbances only 29% have two or more carriers, OAG data 2010 show in North Africa, the region posted a breakeven result this (see pie chart, this page). Just six airports can be considered year according to IATAs most recent forecast. as high connectivity platforms offering flights to more Africa is a fast-growing market with enormous opportunithan 25 African destinationsJohannesburg, Nairobi, Addis ties for air transport. Unfortunately, the existing players in the Ababa, Casablanca, Algiers and Lagosand only seven airmarket are confronted with many challenges on all fronts that ports offer more than 40 intra-African daily flights. are impeding their ability to take advantage of the opportuniRegional aviation in Africa is not yet as developed as in some other parts of the world, Duquesnoy said. One way for African ties, Chingosho said. The airline industry particularly in Africa carriers to be more competitive on intercontinental routes may be is over-taxed, he said, existing airport handling and ATNS infrastructure in many African airports are dilapidated and to establish a stronger intra-Africa network that would feed pasinadequate and there is a lack of management stability and sengers to gateway cities and facilitate better connections. autonomy owing to government interference in day-to-day Several African carriers, including EgyptAir Express, LAM Mozambique, Kenya Airways, Nigerian Eagle Airlines operations. Six African airlines had five different CEOs/MDs regional overview since 2001, three had six top management changes and two (formerly called Virgin Nigeria) and LAM Mozambique, Trends and analysis operate Embraer ERJs and E-jets and the Brazilian manufacturer is confident it will make further inroads COMPEtItION FOR INtRa-aFRICaN ROUtES into the African aviation market. The Embraer 30-120 seat range of aircraft is the right-sized aircraft to help increase connectivity with low- and mid-density markets. Equipment with optimized capacity will also improve efficiency and reduce operating costs, Duquesnoy said, pointing out that some 45% of flights within Africa use aircraft with more than 120 seats, yet 87% of those departures carry, on aver2010 age, fewer than 110 passengers. Competition 522 (29%) According to IATA, African airlines No Competition 1,300 (71%) recorded a 69.1% passenger load Total Routes 1,822 factor in 2010, the lowest in the world and far below the industry average of 78.4% Source:OAG (2010) Over the last decade, according to ICAO data, African air transport airlines had seven different CEOs/MDs. demand has increased on average 6.4% annually in terms of Chingosho added that there has been too much talk not passenger-kilometers performed, making it the second mostmatched by equal measure of action on the implementation rapid growth region after the Middle East and ahead of the of the Yamoussoukro Decision. All African states signed the Asia Pacific region. The regions growth rate was almost two legally binding Yamoussoukro agreement in 1999, calling for points above the average world growth rate of 4.5% and in the liberalization of intra-African air transport within a two2010 there was a 15% hike in TKPs over the previous year, year time frame. Fed up with the protectionist approach of almost five points above the global average. some members and their governments, AFRAA is now workBut while growth rates are significant, the size of Africas ing with and lobbying for the so-called CREWclub of the air transport industry represents just a fraction of the global market: 1.2% to 3.9% depending on the benchmark. This is ready and willing statesto move ahead with liberalization on a more regional scale and show the protectionist counan intriguing reality given that Africa is the worlds secondtries the benefits of opening up the market. largest and second most-populous continent and that its The AFRAA secretary general also pointed to safety (see land and water infrastructure does not make mobility easy. sidebar) being a priority concern to be addressed. Above According to ICAO statistics, African carriers traveled 123 all, safety in Africa must be improved and this should not be billion passenger kilometers last year compared to global of traffic of 4,687 billion kilometers. AFRAA carriers transport- seen the sole responsibility of airlines, but of all stakeholders especially the states, he stressed. ed just 60.9 million passengers and not one African name
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FEB 13 2012 SINGAPORE
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Parts Start Talking

RFID technology is beginning to show results
By Henry Canaday
ADIO-FREquEnCy IDEnTIFICATIOn (RFID) tagging of aircraft parts has long held promise to save costs by improving inventory management, supply-chain efficiency and maintenance operations. Promises and predictions, however, have often failed to materialize.
That is one reason the BoeingFujitsu partnership, RFID Integrated Solutions, offers a turnkey solution, says general manager Phil Coop. Turnkey includes low- and high-memory RFID tags and Contact Memory Buttons (CMBs), readers, software and middleware, training, integration into maintenance applications and advice on changing maintenance processes. Integrated Solutions will initially cover cabin emergency equipment, rotables, repairables, airframe damage and cabin interiors. The partners will eventually extend much more widely. Fujitsu and other firms provide hardware and software, while Boeing does integration.
But RFID may finally be getting real. Several carriers, including American Airlines, are using automatic identification technology to tag parts. Boeing leads a venture offering RFID retrofits on parts from any OEM. Lufthansa Technik will offer tags developed and used internally to outside parties. And Airbus is both applying RFID in shops and preparing for extensive tagging on the A350 XWB. Progress followed improvement in technology, especially tags and readers, and agreement on RFID standards, including ATA Spec 2000. But to fully realize RFIDs potential, several more hurdles must still be overcome. OEMs, airlines, shops and parts distributors must install equipment, which is not terribly expensive, but also change processes, often a much bigger headache. Many airlines are stretched for cash and smaller firms in every segment will need help in adopting RFID.
Maintenance History RFID tags will provide authoritative maintenance history on emergency equipment and be ancillary documents for other parts, Coop said. Tags can contain birth
records, repair and certification history, actions taken, time-on-shelf and no fault founds, supporting decisionmaking by mechanics. Boeing estimates RFID will reduce touch time on parts by ten percent over their lifecycle. And if you have 200,000 parts in inventory, you will know how many are in revenue service, Coop said. Much of the industrys $47 billion in inventory is now unaccounted for. Tags may be read-only or read-write, which allows techs to note maintenance history. CMBs can even store digital photos of damage. Integrated Solutions is now doing testing with Alaska Airlines. Coop is discussing it with 16 carriers and several engine manufacturers. The program is based on common industry standards. We wanted to make sure anyone can read tags on their devices, Coop said. Integrated Solutions provides airlines with installation kits. They clean the surface, stick the tags on and test to ensure adhesion during checks. The process adds man-hours, but does not lengthen the check. The Alaska tests are checking for tag durability under stress, for example being next to vigorous riveting. normal RFID tags for supply chains store only 96 to 128 bits, said Toshiya Sato, general manager for Global Solutions in Fujitsus Intelligent Society unit. We developed a high-memory tag
that stores 64 kilobytes, so customers can store all maintenance history in a tag. In June, Integrated Solutions tested tags on Alaskas parked aircraft. In October come tests in flight and a release for emergency equipment and rotables is set for November. Sato sees several OEMs interested in the solution, including suppliers for the 787. Fujitsu is also discussing the solution with maintenance shops. Read ranges depend on tag, but the standard is three to five meters, sufficient for mechanics to scan life vests by walking down the aisle. Read-write distances have lengthened considerably in the last five years. Filtering the data has not been difficult. We put more than 2,000 tags on one aircraft with no problem scanning all the data on them, Sato said. Eventually, Fujitsu wants to collect tag data in data centers and share it through cloud computing. MacSema makes CMBs that American is putting on replaceable parts of doors, stabilizers, rudders and elevators of Boeing 737s and 777s. The only manufacturer of aviation-certified CMBs, MacSema is now a partner in Integrated Solutions.
firms adopt slowly due to upfront costs. Nevertheless, adaptation will come along, as insurance companies see improvements in safety from control of parts and big OEMs like Boeing and Airbus adopt it.
Optimizing Logisitics Lufthansa Technik (LHT) introduced RFID tagging to optimize logistics in warehouses in 2006 and now tags 80,000 parts moving 200,000 times a year. Project manager Tom Burian said tags were put on paper documents that accompany parts. Now we will permanently fix tags on parts. Paper tagging was done on serialized parts, but all parts will get permanent tags. LHT will start with emergency equipment then slowly move to other parts. Emergency equipment is an attractive start point because so many must be inspected frequently on each plane. Its the low-hanging fruit, Burian said. Tagging documents reduced logistics timethe time from removal to availability in the right back-shop for repair by 70 percent. Burian expects tagging of life vests to cut inspection time from 30 to 45 minutes to five minutes.
Maintenance is a very conservative business. they want to talk to three people who have done it before they do it. Servigistics VP Ed wodarski
Denis Boulet, MacSema vice president corporate business development, says the choice between RFID and CMB depends on space available, part type, environmental conditions, access and other factors. CMBs must be touched for reading or writing, but are extremely rugged and can store much more data, up to 4 gigabytes. The range of Integrated Solutions Motorola readers depends on power. Local regulation set both allowable power and frequency, said Mike Maris, senior director for transport logistics at Motorola. You do not want to read at too long a distance, because that lights up everything, Maris says. Then there is more for the middleware to filter. He argues that reading at three to four feet is ideal. Readers can read through many materials, but have trouble with moisture, such as pallets of water bottles. Maris said union concerns may hamper RFID deployment and small
Its a good business case, he said. One challenge was making tags that work on metal and can survive harsh environments for long periods. LHT developed its own read-write RFID tag and had it certified as airworthy. The tag stores 512 bits, but LHT is working on a high-memory version. Read range is 30 centimeters. We offer the tags to other companies now, and may offer services, Burian said. We could do tagging or send teams to install tags.
Open Standards Aviation took longer to develop standards than other industries because it wanted open standards. Burian predicts these open standards will be better in the long run. The LHT manager sees great advantages in uniform OEM tagging of parts at birth. They have so many different standards for nameplates, and these are modified and can be hard to read. And RFID can be read without line of sight,
so you do not have to open up a panel, just point the reader. No one doubts the promise. Its reality that has been frustrating. RFID was always like the next gas station, joked Ed Wodarski, vice president solutions at Servigistics. There were lots of pilots, but it never happened. Wodarski sees a huge opportunity for RFID to improve maintenance work. You bring in a landing gear and split it into many pieces that must be brought back together because airlines want their own parts on their landing gears. RFID can track where parts are and what has been done to them. But MRO shops are unforgiving. Unlike the clean rooms used by pharmaceutical firms for RFID, shops have metal walls, girders and plenty of concrete, bins and containers. Its very challenging to deploy, its works best in facilities designed for RFID, Wodarski said. That is another reason RFID usually starts with emergency equipment, which is kept on aircraft and never gets too hot or too cold. It is also easier to put RFID tags on plastic parts. But putting RFID on life vests will not change the MRO business. The biggest potential gains are in maintenance shops, which are tough physically and behaviorally. Maintenance is a very conservative business. They want to talk to three people who have done it before they do it, Wodarski said. Nevertheless, as major airframers tag more parts, he sees opportunities in the aftermarket. Its fun to think of the aftermarket tail wagging the dog, but when the dog is Boeing or Airbus, that doesnt work. Another big dog is definitely starting to bark. Airbus has chosen a holistic lifecycle program that can be implemented by airframe and engine manufacturers, their suppliers, maintenance shops and airlines, according to Carlo Nizam, head of value chain visibility and auto-identification at Airbus. The approach uses both active and passive RFID, as well a traditional barcodes, and has been piloted at TAP Maintenance & Engineering, the MRO arm of TAP Portuguese Airlines. The TAP project is expected to reduce idle and lost parts, manual searches and production disruption to reap benefits of 14 million ($19 million) over five years. Additional projects are under way at five other companies, including airlines, suppliers and MROs.
Nizam emphasized the Airbus program uses a range of RFID enablers on various assets such as aircraft parts, logistics containers, tools and large aircraft sections to achieve full automated visibility of operations. Airbus considered, but chose not to use, CMBs. As RFID became more robust, we did not need CMBs, Nizam explained. CMBs cannot be read at distance, they need a different type of reader, and there are very few suppliers. Airbus will have permanent tags on 3,000 parts of each A350 XWB. Suppliers can put together their own systems of tags, writers, readers and software that meet Airbus requirements. Airbus will also offer a complete RFID
package, including software, integration and support by OATSystems and CSC. Data structure will comply with ATA Spec 2000, reader interfaces with ISO standards and robustness with SAE AS5678. All standards will be open. Some A350 suppliers have already chosen Airbuss package. We have been focusing on A350 suppliers so far, but as the program matures we will start working more closely with airlines and MROs, Nizam said. The Airbus manager acknowledges it is easier to implement RFID in a clean-sheet shop or warehouse, but it can also work in older facilities. We have implemented it in all-metal shops and gotten 99% read rates, with both
fixed and mobile readers. On prospects for adoption, Nizam argues that the enablers, technology and standards, are ready. Only people and processes must be changed. We need some success stories and we need to reach critical mass, he said. RFID will go through stages: awareness, education, acceptance and deployment. Our A350 suppliers are in deployment now, Nizam said. At least one sector, the makers of maintenance software, is eager to get going. It will improve accuracy and save time, said Chris Reed, managing director of Trax. I hope it is coming, but we want to see it before we believe it. We cannot finalize software until it is real.
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Route Makers
New avionics help pilots fly more safely and efficiently
By Jerome Greer Chandler
From terminal control areas to transoceanic tracks, new avionics suites promise fuel savings and enhanced safety
vioNiCS TeChNology ThAT eNABleS required navigational performance (RNP) approaches, optimizing of flight routes and safer landings in difficult weather conditions or very low visibility is making its way from tests and evaluation to certification and implementation in general aviation aircraft and, increasingly, to airliners.
Southwest Airlines now performs RNP approaches into 14 airports, including Chicago Midway, where it uses the technology to deconflict traffic going in and out of Chicago Midway. But the airline admits that validating the savings is a challenge. Unfortunately, analyzing the time and fuel burn savings have presented a significant challenge, said Southwest spokeswoman Brandy King, explaining that the process for publishing new approach paths is complex and time-consuming. The data on total numbers of RNP approaches conducted is not as high as we had hoped for, she said. Along with RNP,
there is a lot of attention being paid to adapting in-trail transoceanic procedures using Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) over the North Atlantic. ACSS, an l-3 Communications and Thales company, is preparing for in-trail procedures (iTP) tests next year over the North Atlantic. Some Delta Boeing 767-300s, British Airways Boeing 777-200s, and US Airways Airbus A330s aircraft will be fitted with the companys SafeRoute system - a suite of products pegged to ADS-B. SafeRoute permits pilots to more easily adjust altitude en route in airspace without radar surveillance. SafeRoute displays other aircraft in front, above and below, allowing a time- and fuel-saving track to be selected while safely maintaining separation from other aircraft. Sometimes you get stuck at the current [level] and youre less efficient, said Cyro Stone, director of ACSSs SafeRoute initiative. While ATC allows aircraft to change altitude on request, many times those [requests] get denied. The controllers want to maintain separation. Maybe theyre not sure of the exact position [of the aircraft]. With SafeRoute, pilots still have to get ATC clearance. But the system makes the subsequent altitude change
Honeywells EVS/SVS technology on an approach to RutlandSouthern Vermont Airportshows side-by-side out-of-the-window displays of the terrain and its symbology.
more efficient and creates more confidence in the people approving and executing changes. Honeywell has a system called SmartTraffic, which similarly enables a pilot to climb, descend or perform a passing maneuver that might not be possible without this technology aid. The ADS-B-linked system lets pilots literally squeeze between a couple of airplanes on a flight level above them and climb through that, said Honeywell vice president of aerospace regulatory affairs Chris Benich. I think were starting to get some equity. Theyre getting some significant pro-
TCAS. So upgrades typically require only the additional sensors and new software, which is fed information into an Electronic Flight Bag (EFB), which displays the information. But with ADS-B capability, aircraft typically need more accurate GPS. Still, the potential advantages are considerable. ACSS communications manager Steve Henden said ADS-Bfed, cockpit-mounted EFBs will eventually enable pilots to fly more efficiently from takeoff to touchdown. Henden cites a pilots eye scenario on a transatlantic flight and how it might look using the technology. Taxi
Rockwell Collins blended SV/HUD technology.
cedures out there that are making a difference in the way airlines are able to operate their airplanes, Benich said.
More tests Benich said Honeywells
in-trail tests will begin soon over the North Pacific using United Airline Boeing 747-400s. Savings should be in the range of $100,000 per year per airplane, he said. Avionics manufacturers, however, are generally reluctant to talk return on investment, or even to discuss upfront costs. Savings depend on the specific application to which ADS-B is tasked, they point out. Still, part of the appeal of RNP is that most aircraft are already equipped with the necessary hardware. Aircraft already have transponders. They have
from the gate at OHare on a foggy night and the captain looks down at his EFB and sees all the aircraft taxiing around him, he said. Taking off across the North Atlantic Track, the pilot discovers flight level 390 is friendlier than 350. He checks the EFB display, calls ATC, receives clearance and pushes up the power levers. The result: a safely-executed, precisely-positioned ascent between two other jets. Descending into a congested airport like London Heathrow, meanwhile, SafeFlights merging and spacing application provides speed cues that tell the pilot how fast he needs to go to hit the approach point and at precisely what time. Surface area movement manage-
mentan ADS-B application on SafeRouteis already certified. So are merging and spacing. The next testing to be performed involves the in-trail element that connects the two and renders the re-routing relatively seamless. Another area of technology focus is on improving the ability to safely operate in poor weather or low-visibility situations. Rockwell Collins has developed a blended Synthetic Vision/ Heads-Up Display (SV/HUD). Already certified for use on the Bombardier Challenger 601 and Bombardier Global 5000 business jets with Transport Canada, its working its way through the subsequent bilaterals as we speak, said Joel Otto, Rockwell Collins senior director of marketing. The capabilities will be available on the Bombardier C Series, he said. Our ultimate goal is to achieve operational credit for lower landing minima down to 100 feet, said Greg Irmen, Rockwell Collins vice president of business and regional systems. Achieve that, he said, and the result will be less rerouting of flights at hundreds of airports when visibility is low. Synthetic vision provides pilots a database-generated image of terrain. Based on the position of the aircraft, a synthetic view of the worlds topography is presented to the pilot, Otto said. Although similar to the view you get with the enhanced ground proximity warning system (EGPWS), Otto says SVs data is much richer because it superimposes the terrain information in a head-up form. In the daylight, if you wanted to have synthetic vision and the real world, they have to line up to each other very, very closely, Otto said. In tests, Bombardier and Rockwell Collins compared varying combinations of flight guidance symbologywith and without Son both the HUD and the head-down display (HDD) during ILS approaches. Rockwell Collins says in its data releases that preliminary results indicate that ILS tracking accuracy was improved 70% laterally and 25% vertically when SV was displayed on the HUD. Tracking on the HDD with SV also showed improvement when compared to the HDD without SV, according to Rockwell Collins. Combine this kind of capability with WAAS (the wide area augmenta-
tion system) and LPV (local precision vertical)-type flying and you get simulated CAT I, CAT II using GPS WAAS, or space-based, augmentation system corrected, Otto said. As EGNOS (European Geostationary Navigation Overlay Service) and other things come on line, this will start to move across the world, he said. But to become useful operationally, SV/HUD must get operational credit. Thats the thing that actually gets you lower landing minima, Otto said. Rockwell Collins says that to achieve those lower landing minima for WAAS/ LPV approaches it plans to use its MultiScan weather radar to cross-check the vertical solution vis--vis the runway. Rockwell Collins is focused initially on regional airlines in the 70-to-100 seat range as potential customers for SV/HUD ACSS SafeRoute display on final approach. technology. The 50-seat [RJs] probably not as much, he said. Blended View Honeywell, meanRockwell Collins is realistic about while, has developed Enhanced return on investment. If you fly priVision System/Synthetic Vision marily in the middle of the United System (EVS/SVS) technology that States it will be tougher to get that combines EGPWS technology with payback, Otto said. But if you fly HUD symbology to give pilots into the northwest, up in Alaska and continuous situational awareness of Canada, the scenario is different. their flight path, terrain and navigaEighteen months to three years is kind tional environment using cues that of the typical payback period most are familiar and providing them a [carriers] are looking for, Otto said. VFR view regardless of weather or Higher fuel prices tend to narrow the visibility conditions. investment window. Payback expectaSmartView is predominantly tartions become compressed. Still, for an geted at business and general aviation airline thats looking at SV/HUD as a aircraft now, but the application to long-term strategic investment, a fiveairliners is obvious. year kind of a payback is still feasible Honeywell Aerospace staff research Otto said. scientist Trish Ververs, who has led Despite the fact Rockwell Collins EVS/SVS development, said the idea will have standard dual HUDs on the was to improve the pilots ability to Boeing 787, the company said it has detect a runway and land even in difnot had a discussion with Boeing about ficult conditions such as very low visrendering them dual SV/HUD-capable. ibility or strong crosswinds. Rockwell Collins is waiting for operaLayers of data are correlated in real tional credit to lower landing minima. time, including HUD symbology, Were highly confident were on the conformal terrain, color-coded terrain, path to get there, Otto said. range rings for distance, EGPWS warn-
ings and runway markings. The goal is to give pilots the information they need, when they need it, and in time to do something about it, Ververs said. As part of its development program, Honeywell has also given SmartView HDD capability. In the head-down configuration you can color things and match it to the color of the surrounding environment. With HUDs, its sometimes not clear what you are looking at, Ververs said. Honeywell says that in flight tests so far performed, pilotseven though they may have been wary of HDD mode at the outseteasily adapted to it. There are no mental gymnastics involved, Ververs said. Rockwell Collins, meanwhile, is growing increasingly confident in the ability of its MultiScan weather radar to find, fix and interpret weather. In 2012 the company plans to roll out its MultiScan Threat Detection Radar V2, a system that in August was still undergoing flight trials. The essence of the upgradean algorithmic developmentis to help pilots interpret what they see, Otto said. Whats a weather formation actually mean to an airplane? Whats the real nature of the threat? By concentrating on individual cells, as opposed to simply doing a series of horizontal sweeps, the goal is for MultiScan V2 to vary gain, pulse width and frequency to determine what potential for damage a given cell really poses. Is there lightening and hail ahead, or simply lots of airborne moisture? Is a storm growing, or decaying? We can penetrate behind those things and see and help pilots understand the bigger picture, Otto said. Karen Walker contributed to this article.
weather Detection
Green and
Jatrophra seeds from the Jatropha Curcas plant, grown in africa, the americas and asia.
Growing
Economic expansion and regional events are helping to fuel eco-aviation efforts in Latin America
By Edvaldo Pereira
n a generally gloomy economic era for many established regions, Latin America is emerging as one of the worlds hot spots. Anticipated air traffic growth related to economic expansion and some high-profile events has led the regions airlines, airports and aerospace industry to work together and pioneer eco-aviation programs designed to help sustain that growth.
Alex de Gunten, executive director of the Latin American and Caribbean Air Transport Association, said that while the regions market remains small relative to the rest of the worldrepresenting 7% of world passengers and 5.1% of the world jet fleetgrowth potential is significant. Gunten said expected annual passenger growth of 6.9% and jet fleet growth of 7.2% would put the regions expansion rate second only to the Middle East. Leading the growth are Brazil and Mexico. With that growth, however, comes concern about how to meet demand with congested airports, poor airportcity connections, outdated air traffic control technology, and fees and taxes that are not fully reinvested in the air transportation system. Brazil, in particular, will host the FIFA World Cup
In July, the Air Transport Action Group (ATAG) held its first Latin America Sustainable Aviation Workshop in Rio de Janeiro. TAM holding group CEO Marco Antonio Bologna said air transportation was expected to grow two or three times the GDP in Latin America over the next 15 years. This fast pace will require the regions airlines to be more efficient. According to Bologna, Latin American carriers fully endorse industry-wide goals of improving fuel efficiency by 1.5% per year through 2020, neutralizing net carbon emissions by 2020, and achieving a 50% net reduction of carbon dioxide emissions by 2050. For TAM and other carriers in the region, this has meant active involvement in working groups and test programs related to bio-fuel use and other sustainability efforts.
soccer event in 2014 and the Summer Olympics in 2016. While the tourist and traffic boosts these events will provide will be much welcomed, much of the transportation infrastructure to support it has yet to be put in place. And there is industry consensus that growth must be both efficient and sustainable.
Biofuel Research Efforts Programs
to support that thinking are well under way, however, and many are focused on using local resources. In 2008, Boeing funded a two-year research by Yale Universitys School of Environmental Studies that centered on establishing the sustainability of jet fuel production based on Jatropha, an oil-producing non-edible plant indigenous to Brazil and Mexico. Boeing also helped support a comprehensive exercise established by the Mexican government through the state-owned Airports and Auxiliary Services airport management company. The so-called flight plan towards sustainable aviation biofuels
known locally as the Plan de Vuelo brought together more than 1,000 stakeholders and analyzed links and gaps in the sustainable biofuels supply chain. Issues related to raw materials and extraction, infrastructure and refining, financing, legislation, logistics and distribution were examined as part of the plan. Jatropha and Agave were among the plants studied as part of the roadmap, which led to Airports and Auxiliary Services establishing a plan to develop biofuel production capacity at up to four refineries by 2020. On July 21, LCC Interjet this a320 flew a full conducted passenger load with a a CFM56biofuel mix. powered Airbus A320 flight between its Mexico City base and Tuxtla Gutierrez that was fueled by a mix of 73% conventional Jet A-1 fuel and 27% bio-derived synthetic paraffinic kerosene produced from Jatropha seed oil. Soon after arriving in Tuxtla Gutierrez, the A320 returned to Mexico City with the same fuel mix and also with a full passenger load. These flights marked the first Americas passenger services using a biofuel mix. The Jatropha oil was produced by the Mexican state of Chipas, processed by Honeywell company UOP, formerly known as Universal Oil Products, and delivered by Mexicos Airports and Auxiliary Services. In early August, Aeromexico performed the first biofuel-mix transoceanic passenger service when a GE90-Boeing 777-200ER flew from Mexico City to Madrid. The aircraft had onboard 75 tonnes of blended fuel, 30% produced from Jatropha seed oil and 70% from conventional jet fuel. This time the biofuel was provided by Boeing and delivered by Airports Auxiliary Service. Aeromexico plans to begin a Mexico City - San Jos, Costa Rica, service using a CFM56-powered
Boeing 737-700 with the same biofuel mixture. On Nov. 23, Brazilian carrier TAM performed the first Latin America biofuel flight test in a joint program with Airbus and CFM International. An Airbus A320 flew for 45 minutes out of Rio de Janeiro with 20 TAM and Airbus staff onboard. It was fuelled by a 50:50 mix of Jet A-1 and Jatophra-based biofuel produced in Brazil and processed by UOP. Brazilian LCC Azul, meanwhile, is planning a demonstration flight in early 2012 in which a GE CF34-powered Embraer E-Jet will use renewable jet fuel produced by Amyris, a US alternative fuels company that has a production facility in Brazil. This is part of a study headed by Amyris which is assessing the feasibility of producing bio-jet fuel from sugar cane. The study is jointly funded by Boeing, Embraer and the Inter-American Development Bank, with research efforts led by Brazilian think tank Icone. The World Wildlife Fund is project independent advisor and reviewer. But with all the newly discovered potential of Jatropha comes another challenge: how to produce enough of it. In September, SG Biofuels announced another joint program in the region. The company has teamed with JetBio, a Brazilian company that specializes in biofuels projects and is part of an initiative that includes Airbus, the Inter-American Development Bank, Bioventures Brazil, Rio Pardo Bioenergia, Air BP and TAM, to accelerate the production of crude Jatropha oil. SG Biofuels will work with Bioventures Brazil, an energy crop project developer, and others to help develop 75,000 acres of Jatropha plantations in Brazils central-west region. Jatropha has proven to be the most cost-effective and sustainable feedstock for renewable jet fuel, but the challenge lies in scaling production to meet demand, Paul Nash, Airbus head of new energies, said. There is also focus on realizing the potential of other plants, including sugar cane, for which Brazil is the worlds largest producer. Sugar cane is one of the most photosyntheticefficient, renewable and widely available feedstock, said Joel Velasco, senior VP external relations at Amyris. With
BOLOGNa
DE GUNtEN
about 1.5% percent of its arable land dedicated to sugarcane for biofuel production, Brazil has been able to replace half of its gasoline needs with renewable fuels. In addition, while cane production has increased steadily in recent years, food production in Brazil has also grown dramatically.
Widening the Stage Another event
coming to Rio de Janeiro is the Rio+20 United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development scheduled for June. Heads of state and senior government representatives will attend and the aim will be to secure political support for green initiatives and global environment benchmarks. The conferences timing and location dovetails with the pioneering efforts by Latin Americas aviation industry and is likely to further boost them. This will be the next benchmark in the global consideration of environmental issues, which are now more closely connected to the other two pillars of sustainability, social and economic, said Jane Hupe, ICAOs environment branch chief. The overarching objectives of the meeting are to secure renewed political commitment for sustainable development, assess progress made since Rio 92, and identify the remaining gaps in the implementation of the outcomes of the major summits on sustainable development held since then, focusing on ways to address these gaps as well as new and emerging challenges. It is fundamental to these discussions because of its role as a powerful enabler of economic development. It is therefore of paramount importance that recommendations taken at the Rio + 20 summit consider the specificities of air transport, with a view to ensuring its sustainable growth. For emerging markets and regions of the world currently experiencing unprecedented economic growth and expansion of their international air transport sector, as is the case for Latin America, such results are even more relevant, Hupe said.
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Facts & Figures

Aircraft Data
747-400BCF
Engine Types CF6-80C2 14; PW4000 25; RB211-524 4 43 12 *
Non-US Airline Traffic2011

747-400F
CF6-80C2 74; PW4000 33; RB211-524 17 124
MD-11F
CF6-80C2 101; PW4400 66 167
Airline
Pass. 11/10 (000) % chg.
RPKs (000)
11/10 % chg.
FTKs 11/10 Jan. (000) % chg. thru
# in Fleet # of Operators # on Order
25
0
14
*
Geographic Distribution
Europe Africa-Mid East Asia-Pacific North America South America Avg. Age of Fleet 19.5 9.3 17.0 10 9 19 2 73 30
31
6 11 119
Demographics as of June 2011. * Technically there are no orders for these aircraft at present. However, there are an undisclosed number of 747-400 and MD-11 passenger aircraft awaiting conversion to freighter. Source: Aviation Specialists Group, Inc.
Aircraft Values
Aircraft
747-400BCF 747-400F MD-11F
Year Built
1990 1999 1999
2011*
$41.7 $68.1 $35.3
2016**
$35.0 $60.0 $36.6
2021**
$22.5 $46.8 $27.3
2026**
$12.9 $33.2 $18.7
Adria Aegean Aer Lingus Aeromexico Aerosvit Air Asia Group Air Baltic Air Canada Air France KLM Air Malta Alitalia ANA Asiana 1 Austrian Airlines Blue 1 British Airways British Midland Brussels Airlines Cargolux Cathay Pacific China Airlines 1 Copa Airlines * Croatia Cyprus Czech easyJet Emirates Eva Air 1 Finnair Garuda 1
Values assume Stage 3 aircraft. * Current Market ValueMost likely trading price under current market, 2011=NEW conditions, rounded to nearest US$million. ** Future Base Valuevalue in a balanced market, inflated at 1.5% p.a., rounded to nearest US$million. Source: AVITAS, Inc.
US Consumer Complaints July 2011

Southwest Hawaiian SkyWest Mesa AirTran Alaska JetBlue Delta Atlantic Southeast American American Eagle ExpressJet Continental Frontier US Airways United 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
2011
2010 Source: US DOT.
Ranked by complaints per 100,000 passengers.
816 3,363 6,557 -1,566 17,224 1,967 -50,188 918 13,819 3,049 4,834 7,420 1,228 -3,947 3,249 -18,211 5,557 -1,066 737 2,557 37,443 18,687 3,172 19,584 1,515 Germanwings 5,012 Gol -Iberia -Icelandair 975 Japan Airlines 13,798 JAT 645 Korean Air 1 7,184 LAN Airlines 14,587 LOT 2,485 Lufthansa 2 43,405 Lufthansa Cargo -Luxair 446 Malaysia Airlines 1 4,422 Malev 1,637 Norwegian 10,221 Philippine Airlines 1 2,044 Porter Airlines -Qantas Group 25,577 Royal Brunei 1 680 Ryanair 44,288 SAS 15,840 Silk Air 1 1,420 Singapore Airlines 11,137 Swiss 3 10,926 TAM 24,859 TAP 5,559 Tarom 1,071 Thai Airways 10,793 Turkish Airlines 18,123 Ukraine Intl. 721 Vietnam Airlines 1 22,488 Virgin Atlantic 2,999 Virgin Blue 10,500 Vueling 8,295 WestJet -Wideroe 1,665
2.0 865,119 1.2 3,235,700 -1.4 9,513,000 -12,811,000 104.5 3,552,700 -20,330,000 7.0 2,195,079 -60,054,000 7.3 143,774,000 -2.8 1,277,000 6.4 19,158,800 17.2 13,244,157 0.0 13,515,373 2.0 11,779,000 26.1 1,130,000 -77,777,000 -7.2 4,852,000 18.8 4,820,900 --2.0 66,819,531 0.2 15,621,115 -10,699,040 18.4 738,594 -15.2 1,393,300 -11.2 2,979,168 13.4 -6.7 86,954,449 -3.7 11,542,270 15.7 14,497,100 3.3 6,040,662 -2.5 4,540,000 -22,899,472 -34,582,000 20.4 2,712,200 -38.0 24,911,983 20.1 670,200 2.4 28,903,313 32.0 25,155,000 11.7 3,881,100 13.0 94,309,000 --8.1 258,800 11.0 18,280,737 0.0 1,831,000 20.3 11,587,000 4.8 8,508,250 -786,962 5.6 62,029,000 6.6 2,626,578 7.8 -7.0 18,969,455 9.7 2,087,171 2.2 56,860,900 9.9 23,145,000 14.9 38,012,062 109.1 14,522,600 -1.7 1,181,300 3.5 32,842,000 10.6 32,139,052 38.6 1,338,800 27.2 7,177,652 -0.8 21,615,800 -4.0 17,230,000 10.4 7,329,893 -15,932,318 25.6 543,000
2.0 14.9 -2.3 30.0 96.7 -5.0 5.3 6.7 1.5 4.4 11.9 1.4 0.3 13.2 11.9 -5.4 19.9 -4.3 -2.1 32.9 18.8 -14.8 -18.3 -6.9 -6.0 10.1 38.6 -2.5 21.0 1.2 22.7 -36.2 22.8 4.1 18.8 5.2 10.7 -6.6 14.0 -0.3 27.9 2.7 32.4 5.8 12.9 -5.0 13.5 2.1 9.8 17.3 9.4 -7.9 3.0 20.1 39.5 19.9 -1.0 5.8 8.5 -23.8
1,259 9,500 --37,700 -5,298 -7,511,000 3,600 245,700 1,217,892 1,924,947 --3,185,000 38,000 72,700 2,723,500 6,428,618 2,761,943 -995 12,400 9,532 -4,614,618 2,460,051 581,400 144,716 --878,000 -1,288,933 1,400 4,535,357 2,355 46,100 -6,340 -1,023,133 3,500 -144,048 --74,836 -321,140 14,601 4,670,762 917,000 136,181 203,900 2,300 1,656,000 -9,800 157,208 897,800 -----
7.0 14.7 --23.8 --4.0 -0.3 -10.8 3.1 17.0 6.2 --5.3 -16.7 22.8 -2.5 -2.1 -17.9 -7.7 -43.3 -9.3 -3.3 -1.3 24.8 18.8 --7.3 --31.9 17.0 -5.2 11.9 8.3 -10.7 --14.1 5.3 -1.0 --15.3 -2.0 12.1 3.3 5.8 21.6 -6.4 31.1 1.4 -48.3 12.2 1.2 -----
Aug. July Aug. July July July July Aug. Aug. July July July June Aug. Aug. Aug. Aug. July July Aug. June Aug. July July July Aug. July June Aug. June Aug. July Aug. July July July June Aug. July Aug. Aug. July June July Aug. June Aug. July June July Aug. June Aug. Aug. Aug. July July July July July June July July Aug. July Aug.
1. International only. 2.Includes Lufthansa Regional and Lufthansa Italia. 3. Includes Edelweiss. *Partial. Source: Direct airline reports, AAPA, AEA, ATW research.
ATw | OCTOBER 2011
61
August 2011 Deliveries

Type A319 A319 A319 A319 A320 A320 A320 A320 A320 A320 A320 A320 A320 A320 A320 A320 A320 A320 A320 A320 A320 A320 A320 A320 A321 A321 A321 A321 A321 A321 A330 A330 A330 A330 A330 A380 737 (NG) 737 (NG) 737 (NG) 737 (NG) 737 (NG) 737 (NG) 737 (NG) 737 (NG) 737 (NG) 737 (NG) 737 (NG) 737 (NG) 737 (NG) Series Engine 100 100 100 100 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 300 300 200 200 300 800 700 800 800 800 800 800 700 900 700 800 800 800 800 V2500 CFM56 CFM56 CFM56 V2500 V2500 CFM56 V2500 V2500 CFM56 V2500 CFM56 CFM56 CFM56 CFM56 CFM56 V2500 CFM56 CFM56 CFM56 CFM56 CFM56 V2500 CFM56 V2500 CFM56 V2500 V2500 V2500 V2500 PW4000 Trent Trent PW4000 Trent GP7200 CFM56 CFM56 CFM56 CFM56 CFM56 CFM56 CFM56 CFM56 CFM56 CFM56 CFM56 CFM56 CFM56 Type & Variant 2524-A5SelectOne 5B7/3 5B5/3 5B5/3 2527-A5SelectOne 2527-A5SelectOne 5B6/3 2527-A5SelectOne 2527-A5SelectOne 5B4/3 2527-A5SelectOne 5B6/3 5B4/3 5B4/3 5B4/3 5B4/3 2527-A5SelectOne 5B4/3 5B4/3 5B4/3 5B4/3 5B4/3 2527-A5SelectOne 5B4/3 2533-A5 5B3/3 2533-A5SelectOne 2533-A5SelectOne 2533-A5SelectOne 2533-A5SelectOne 4170 Advantage 70 772B-60EP 772B-60 4170 Advantage 70 772B-60EP 7270 7B22E 7B26E 7B26E 7B27E 7B27E 7B24E 7B24E 7B26E 7B26E/B2 7B26E 7B26E 7B26E 7B24E Operator Turkish Airlines (THY) Tibet Airlines Alitalia Lufthansa Jetstar Asia Hainan Airlines AirAsia British Airways Qatar Airways Avianca Tiger Airways AirAsia Philippines Air Arabia airberlin China Eastern Airlines Royal Air Force of Oman IndiGo Airlines Air China Virgin America China Eastern Airlines LAN Airlines Air France Qatar Airways Gulf Air Turkish Airlines (THY) Saudi Arabian Airlines Lufthansa Sichuan Airlines Vietnam Airlines Sichuan Airlines Malaysia Airlines Etihad Airways Royal Air Force China Southern Airlines Aeroflot Russian Airlines Korean Air Southwest Airlines Norwegian Malaysia Airlines FlyDubai GOL Linhas Aereas airberlin China Southern Airlines Lion Air Xiamen Airlines Shenzhen Airlines Skymark Airlines Copa Airlines American Airlines Delivery Date 8/4/11 8/4/11 8/5/11 8/15/11 8/2/11 8/4/11 8/4/11 8/5/11 8/8/11 8/9/11 8/11/11 8/12/11 8/12/11 8/15/11 8/16/11 8/17/11 8/17/11 8/19/11 8/22/11 8/23/11 8/24/11 8/25/11 8/29/11 8/31/11 8/3/11 8/17/11 8/23/11 8/30/11 8/30/11 8/30/11 8/3/11 8/22/11 8/25/11 8/29/11 8/30/11 8/19/11 8/1/11 8/1/11 8/2/11 8/3/11 8/4/11 8/8/11 8/8/11 8/9/11 8/10/11 8/10/11 8/11/11 8/11/11 8/12/11 Type Series Engine 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 700 800 800 800 800 800 700 700 800 800 700 800 800 800 800 800 300 300 300 300 300 200 200 300 300 CFM56 CFM56 CFM56 CFM56 CFM56 CFM56 CFM56 CFM56 CFM56 CFM56 CFM56 CFM56 CFM56 CFM56 CFM56 CFM56 CFM56 CFM56 CFM56 CFM56 CFM56 CFM56 CFM56 CFM56 CFM56 CF6 CF6 GE90 GE90 GE90 GE90 GE90 GE90 GE90 CF34 CF34 CF34 CF34 CF34 CF34 CF34 CF34 CF34 CF34 Type & Variant 7B26E 7B26E 7B26E 7B26E 7B26/3 7B24E 7B27E 7B24E 7B26E 7B26E/B2 7B24E 7B24E 7B26E 7B26E 7B26E 7B26E/B2 7B22E 7B26E 7B24E 7B22E 7B26E 7B26E 7B24E 7B26E 7B26E 80C2B7F 80C2B6F 115B 115B 115BL 110B1L 115B 115BL 115BL 10E7 10E5 10E6 10E5 10E5 10E5A1 10E5A1 10E5 10E5 10E5 Operator UTair UTair Shanghai Airlines Shandong Airlines Continental Airlines JetConnect GOL Linhas Aereas Hainan Airlines Tassili Airlines China Eastern Airlines American Airlines airberlin Royal Air Maroc Air China Copa Airlines Xiamen Airlines KLM Royal Dutch Airlines RwandAir American Airlines Southwest Airlines Shenzhen Airlines Air China Qantas Virgin Australia Shandong Airlines Japan Airlines ANA - All Nippon Airways Emirates Airline Air China Turkish Airlines (THY) Emirates Airline Air Austral Cathay Pacific Cathay Pacific TRIP Virgin Australia Aeromexico Connect China Southern Airlines Tianjin Airlines Austral Austral Tianjin Airlines Air Europa LOT - Polish Airlines Delivery Date 8/15/11 8/15/11 8/15/11 8/16/11 8/17/11 8/17/11 8/18/11 8/18/11 8/19/11 8/22/11 8/23/11 8/23/11 8/23/11 8/23/11 8/24/11 8/25/11 8/25/11 8/25/11 8/26/11 8/29/11 8/29/11 8/29/11 8/30/11 8/31/11 8/31/11 8/22/11 8/31/11 8/5/11 8/18/11 8/19/11 8/25/11 8/25/11 8/26/11 8/29/11 8/1/11 8/5/11 8/6/11 8/11/11 8/18/11 8/26/11 8/26/11 8/31/11 8/25/11 8/26/11
737 (NG) 737 (NG) 737 (NG) 737 (NG) 737 (NG) 737 (NG) 737 (NG) 737 (NG) 737 (NG) 737 (NG) 737 (NG) 737 (NG) 737 (NG) 737 (NG) 737 (NG) 737 (NG) 737 (NG) 737 (NG) 737 (NG) 737 (NG) 737 (NG) 737 (NG) 737 (NG) 737 (NG) 737 (NG) 767 767 777 777 777 777 777 777 777 190 190 190 190 190 190 190 190 195 195
www.ascendworldwide.com. Tel: +44 (0) 20 8564 6700;e-mail: fleet@ascendworldwide. com. Source: Ascend Online Fleets database
Visit ATWOnline.com for Daily News and view the ATW Flight Bag for more Data Trends
US Major Carriers System Traffic*January-May 2011

Airline AirTran Alaska American American Eagle Atlas Continental Delta FedEx Frontier Hawaiian JetBlue SkyWest Southwest United UPS US Airways Total all carriers Rank 8 10 3 11 -6 1 -12 13 7 9 2 5 -4 Pass. (000) 9,961 7,054 34,621 6,702 -18,256 44,751 -3,846 3,502 10,411 9,646 44,547 20,213 -21,614 235,124 11/10 % chg. 2.34 11.90 -0.28 4.64 -4.83 11.11 --1.33 4.72 9.39 1.10 6.79 -6.26 -4.05 4.41 Rank 9 8 2 13 -5 1 -12 11 7 10 4 3 -6 RPKs (000) 13,095,025 14,480,591 81,346,969 5,628,644 -52,460,435 105,130,893 -6,255,586 6,413,176 19,256,390 8,584,252 54,128,070 63,255,457 -38,768,120 468,803,608 11/10 % chg. 5.82 16.69 1.79 17.33 -4.11 10.53 -1.56 21.61 7.57 2.09 10.88 -1.83 -4.80 5.83 Rank 9 8 2 11 -5 1 -13 12 7 10 4 3 -6 ASKs (000) 16,301,540 17,283,476 102,771,834 7,843,085 -66,068,933 132,572,091 -7,522,212 7,644,184 23,693,605 11,084,089 68,125,488 77,914,369 -47,574,745 586,399,649 11/10 % chg. 3.92 13.25 1.75 16.74 -7.51 14.24 --3.05 22.09 3.86 2.21 7.14 -0.88 -3.44 6.23 Load factor (%) 80.3 83.8 79.2 71.8 -79.4 79.3 -83.2 83.9 81.3 77.4 79.5 81.2 -81.5 79.9 FTKs 11/10 chg. Rank (000) 1.4 --2.47 11 29,908 0.0 5 1,033,033 0.4 14 162 -3 1,885,821 -2.6 7 526,037 -2.7 4 1,365,982 -1 6,532,098 3.8 13 1,885 -0.3 10 54,125 2.8 12 9,062 -0.1 15 13 2.7 9 66,004 -0.8 6 968,938 -2 4,277,844 1.1 8 186,392 -0.3 16,937,304 11/10 % chg. -2.76 -0.16 -13.95 18.91 -4.62 19.17 2.91 -49.09 13.64 10.50 -76.32 0.50 -9.65 12.94 6.82 6.83
*All services. Source: US DOT
US Major Carriers Domestic Traffic*January-May 2011

Airline AirTran Alaska American American Eagle Atlas Continental Delta FedEx Frontier Hawaiian JetBlue SkyWest Southwest United UPS US Airways Total all carriers Rank 8 11 3 10 -6 2 -12 13 9 7 1 5 -4 Pass. (000) 9,569 6,391 26,726 6,571 -12,589 36,453 -3,825 3,361 9,111 9,646 44,547 16,439 -19,029 204,257 11/10 % chg. 0.54 11.30 -1.79 3.94 -0.87 10.56 -3.69 2.59 9.24 1.10 6.80 -8.39 -4.46 3.70 Rank 9 7 3 12 -6 1 -11 13 8 10 2 4 -5 RPKs (000) 12,351,474 13,024,297 49,623,422 5,471,556 -26,340,561 58,257,591 -6,194,450 5,382,081 12,851,876 8,584,252 54,128,070 34,568,580 -29,203,294 315,981,502 11/10 % chg. 6.32 17.27 -0.66 16.65 --2.09 6.92 -10.19 13.92 -16.42 2.09 10.88 -7.50 -1.78 3.26 Rank 9 8 3 11 -6 1 -12 13 7 10 2 4 -5 ASKs (000) 15,400,444 15,579,402 61,380,426 7,588,932 -32,148,243 70,727,543 -7,453,324 6,280,221 20,139,488 11,084,089 68,100,738 41,054,053 -35,136,962 392,073,867 11/10 % chg. 4.70 13.24 -0.88 16.06 -2.60 8.41 -4.36 13.08 3.39 2.21 7.10 -7.32 -2.76 3.55 Load factor (%) 80.2 83.6 80.8 72.1 -81.9 82.4 -83.1 85.7 63.8 77.4 79.5 84.2 -83.1 80.6 11/10 chg. 1.2 2.87 -0.2 0.4 --1.5 -1.2 -4.4 0.6 -15.1 -0.1 2.7 1.2 -1.0 -0.28 Rank -10 6 14 4 8 5 1 13 9 12 15 7 3 2 11 FTKs (000) -29,045 128,547 159 169,008 56,301 138,001 3,403,461 1,885 47,282 7,341 13 66,004 151,298 2,026,166 19,580 6,244,092 11/10 % chg. --7.32 -9.10 -14.84 -19.66 -19.77 -0.84 -2.15 -48.77 14.26 13.78 -76.32 0.50 -21.26 2.43 -8.61 -2.13
US Fuel Cost And ConsumptionJuly 2011

Operation Total Domestic Total International System Total
Total gallons (000) Cost/ gallon (cents) Chg. month (cents) Chg. year (cents)
US Airline Employment DataJuly 2011

Carrier Group Majors Nationals Large Regionals Medium Regionals Grand Total
Source: US DOT.
Full Time
Part Time
Total
982,400 528,400 1,510,700
288.0 289.0 287.0
-5.0 5.0 5.0
67.0 67.0 66.0
429,378 47,774 1,978 1,097 480,227
96,235 4,932 197 100 101,464
525,613 57,706 2,175 1,197 581,691
Source: US DOT Form 41 filings. Costs do not include taxes, into-plane fees, or expenses associated with hedging programs. Based on last carrier submissions, the gallons used above represents 99.9% of the total consumption by Major, National and Large Regional carriers.
atw | OCTOBER 2011
63
US Major Carriers International Traffic*January-May 2011

Airline AirTran Latin Alaska Latin American Total Atlantic Latin Pacific American Eagle Latin Atlas Total Continental Total Atlantic Latin Pacific Delta Total Atlantic Latin Pacific FedEx Total Atlantic Latin Pacific Hawaiian Pacific JetBlue Latin United Total Atlantic Latin Pacific UPS Total Atlantic Latin Pacific US Airways Total Atlantic Latin Total all carriers Atlantic Latin Pacific
Rank 8 7 2
Pass. (000) 388 660 7,888 1,602 5,875 407 128 -5,672 1,855 2,903 906 8,248 3,336 2,757 2,151 ----173 1,298 3,772 1,341 776 1,652 ----2,583 898 1,684 30,810 9,032 16,469 5,289
11/10 % chg. 35.66 18.28 5.19 1.07 -8.91 13.06 56.10 -15.00 3.00 4.31 161.85 13.03 13.39 6.94 21.73 ----162.12 10.47 4.34 -0.30 41.35 -2.59 ----1.14 16.02 -5.29 9.78 6.93 9.93 24.89
Rank 9 7 2
RPKs (000) 743,551 1,456,295 31,723,548 10,964,241 16,525,857 4,233,450 157,088 -26,119,874 12,892,093 7,777,724 5,450,056 46,873,303 24,210,583 8,417,239 14,245,481 ----1,277,768 2,785,575 28,686,877 11,336,876 2,987,723 14,362,278 ----9,564,826 5,883,712 3,681,114
11/10 % chg. -1.76 11.77 6.60 1.16 8.85 13.23 47.30 -7.73 3.32 0.83 34.46 15.38 12.27 5.97 28.14 ----132.77 10.29 3.69 3.78 31.04 -0.69 ----7.27 16.30 -4.59 12.00 7.27 14.08 16.65
Rank 9 7 2
ASKs (000) 901,096 1,704,074 41,390,437 15,019,014 20,683,294 5,688,129 254,153 -33,894,980 16,952,807 10,007,932 6,934,241 61,844,547 32,468,108 11,161,425 18,209,306 ----1,688,370 3,555,431 36,857,225 15,148,626 4,008,352 17,700,247 ----12,437,782 7,824,581 4,613,201 194,528,097 87,413,136 56,888,959 50,220,293
11/10 % chg. -7.93 13.03 8.06 5.36 5.83 26.32 46.49 -12.53 8.21 2.59 47.64 21.91 19.54 9.49 36.94 ----138.79 6.60 7.43 8.70 40.35 1.03 ----5.41 16.89 -9.63 15.85 12.48 13.91 23.32
Load factor (%) 82.5 85.5 76.6 73.0 79.9 74.4 61.8 -77.1 76.0 77.7 78.6 75.8 74.6 75.4 78.2 ----75.7 78.3 77.8 74.8 74.5 81.1 ----76.9 75.2 79.8 76.8 74.7 78.3 78.8
11/10 chg. 2.8 -1.0 -1.1 -3.0 2.2 -8.6 ---3.4 -3.6 -1.4 -7.7 -4.3 -4.8 -2.5 -5.4 -----2.0 2.6 -2.8 -3.5 -5.3 -1.4 ----1.3 -0.4 4.2 -2.6 -3.6 0.1 -4.5
Rank -11 5
FTKs (000) -1,108 904,485 442,735 231,235 230,505 --
11/10 % chg. --11.54 1.26 -0.50 -4.99 12.51 -50.04 -2.49 -4.55 -3.17 2.55 21.94 15.26 5.60 41.83 11.01 7.02 2.24 14.78 48.23 -5.76 -7.12 -6.15 18.27 -11.09 9.83 9.59 4.63 10.81 9.38 9.60 -2.43 33.32 5.68 1.64 12.47
10 -3
10 -4
10 -4
--
3 2,064,014 7 469,403 283,300 60,129 125,935
4 1,227,970 709,093 109,845 409,018 1 3,126,033 1,159,795 179,326 1,786,912 9 10 6 9,256 1,718 817,623 415,266 52,610 349,742
--
--
--
9 6 4
8 6 3
8 6 3
--
---
--
2 2,245,189 864,989 177,895 1,202,291 8 166,809 164,049 2,755 11,033,616 4,039,226 816,620 4,113,658
149,388,704 65,287,505 44,532,166 39,569,033
World Airport Traffic July 2011

International Region Pass.
(000)
Domestic Pass.
(000)
Total Pass.
(000)
% chg.
% chg.
% chg.
Africa Asia/Pacific Europe Latin Am./Carib. Middle East North America Total
Source: ACI 64 atw | OCTOBER 2011
6,319 31,994 101,760 6,625 4,383 18,658 169,739
-11.6 10.4 7.6 4.8 6.2 4.1 6.7
2,897 47,415 27,577 17,911 77,667 173,466
2.7 2.5 3.7 11.9 2.2 3.5
9,396 80,383 129,753 25,289 4,741 98,275 347,837
-7.1 5.5 6.7 10.0 7.7 2.5 5.0
US Mishandled Baggage July 2011

AirTran Hawaiian JetBlue Frontier Alaska US Airways Delta United American Continental Southwest SkyWest ExpressJet Mesa Atlantic Southeast American Eagle
US Ontime Performance July 2011
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
Hawaiian Alaska Southwest AirTran Mesa Delta American American Eagle Continental US Airways SkyWest JetBlue United Frontier ExpressJet Atlantic Southeast
0.0
8
2011
20
40
60
80
100
2011
2010
Ranked by reports per 1,000 passengers. Source: US DOT.
2010
Ranked by % of arrivals ontime at all reported airports. Source: US DOT.
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Senior Analyst - Network Planning needed by Southwest Airlines in Dallas, TX to be responsible for analysis of strategies, business development issues, initiatives, and proposals for airline network planning projects. Requires Bachelors or foreign equivalent in Business Administration, Economics, Finance, or Aviation Management and 2 years of experience in airline network planning, including data analysis, trafc forecasts, nancial analysis and projections, and market performance analysis to support capacity deployment and schedule design. Experience to include therein using industrystandard schedule, trafc, revenue, and segment-level data, data warehouses, web-based data sources, and MS Excel and PowerPoint. To apply, mail resume to Tiffany Harvey, Senior Recruiter, Southwest Airlines, 2702 Love Field Dr., Dallas, TX 75235. Refer to Job #18-J.
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29 48 Contact your nearest AtW representative
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ATw | OCtOBER 2011 67
Commentary Editorial
FAAs Proposed New Crew Rules Need Rethink

By Stephen a. alterman
ith the debate over the most effective way to reduce crew member fatigue still raging, it is vitally important to understand that the all-cargo air carrier industry continues to support changes to existing FAA regulations in this important safety area. This reassessment, however, must take into account the operational realities of the aviation marketplace and must be firmly rooted in fatigue science as that science applies to the airline industry. The Cargo Airline Associations (CAA) proposal for moving forward, a proposal that recognizes the impact of multiple flight segments and time of day, as well as affording pilots substantially greater rest opportunities and shorter duty days, takes into account all of these factors. The CAAs proposed rules would: Increase flight crew rest opportunities by 25-50%, depending on whether the operation is domestic or international; Decrease flight duty periods by 12.544%; Recognize the impact of time of day and multiple operational segments in the pilot fatigue equation and adjust the daily flight duty period accordingly. The cargo industry strongly urged FAA to recognize that the various aviation industry segments have substantially different operational characteristics and the only way to ensure the highest level of safety is to tailor regulations to these unique characteristics. Perhaps the best statement of this principle was made by FAA Administrator Randy Babbitt when he stated that in rulemaking, not only does one size not fit all, but its unsafe to think that it can. Regrettably, the rule proposed by FAA failed to acknowledge the safety records of the various segments and
failed to consider the carefully thought- economic harm on an already fragile US economy. out CAA safety proposals. It also incorThe FAAs proposed rule also utterly rectly assumed a mature body of scienfails the required cost-benefit test. For tific knowledge when, in fact, fatigue the all-cargo industry, the safety benefits science as it applies to the airline industry is very much incomplete. And, are virtually non-existent, while the resulting costs would be in the billions contrary to the FAA Administrators of dollars. admonition, the FAA proposed a one For every dollar of benefit, the prosize fits all rule. posed rule would impose an overwhelmAny pilot fatigue rule must protect ing $3,800 in costs. Perhaps the best safety by taking into account the vast evidence of the lack of material safety differences in domestic, international, benefits comes from NTSB data which scheduled, charter, passenger and cargo operations. While all pilots may have the reveal that, since 1982, there have been only two cargo accidents in which same physiology, they do not all have fatigue has been a cause or contributing the same duty schedules, cumulative factor. The proposed rules would not flight hours and rest opportunities. The have prevented either accident. FAAs proposed rule gave no considerThe FAA needs to revamp its rule to ation to whether a pilot is flying mulensure that it is based on existing sound tiple daily short-haul commuter flights scientific principles as they relate to the or a single, daily long-haul international aviation environment and to reflect the cargo flight on an aircraft with private vastly different operating sectors of the rest facilities and staffed with additional airline industry. CAAs proposed rules flight crews. would accomplish these objectives and CAA member carriers, by design, should be adopted in lieu of the FAAs tend to fly more nighttime and longone size fits all proposal. haul routes to meet the demands of their worldwide customer base. In Stephen A. Alterman is president of the doing so, we can and do provide more US Cargo Airline Association, based and better opportunities for rest than other industry segments. And our pilots in Washington. Steve began his career in aviation in 1968 in the Bureau of already average substantially fewer flyEnforcement for the US Civil Aeronautics ing hours each month than our passenBoard. ger counterparts. Even more important, the FAAs proATW welcomes commentary posal fails the most basic test submissions by experts on it does not increase safety issues of interest to the global and will not prevent accidents. air transportation industry. As the same time, it will burTo submit a commentary or den US airlines with the most get information on submission restrictive and costly flight guidelines, contact Executive duty rules in the world. It will Editor Karen Walker at karen. reduce the competitiveness of walker@penton.com or call +1 alterman 301 755 0165. US carriers and create severe

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SITA/ATW Passenger Survey: Self-Service Options in Demand

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