STRATEGYMEMO

To: InterestedParties From: MikeBarley,PAGOPExecutiveDirector Date: November16,2011 Subject: FailedObamaAgendaContinuesToSetUpBigRepublicanWins Iftheoutcomesofthe2009,2010and2011electionsserveasaforecastfornextyearspresidential election,PresidentBarackObamashouldbeveryconcernedabouthisreelectioncampaigninthe KeystoneState.ThankstoPresidentObamasfailedeconomicagenda,Pennsylvaniavotersare embracingRepublicancandidateswhowillstandandfightagainstthefailedObamapolicies. TuesdayselectionsshouldserveasarallyingpointforRepublicansaswellasthelatestinastringof wakeupcallsforPresidentObamasreelectioncampaignandtheDemocratParty.ForDemocrat candidateswhoranin2011,Obamasfailedpoliciesmadefordisastrouspolitics.BytyingDemocratic candidatestothePresidentspoliciesdirectly,relatingbiggovernmentObamastyleplanstosimilarlocal programsandusingcandidatespastsupportforthisunpopularPresident,Obamaplayedacentraland criticalfactorineachoneofourvictories. Atthestatewidelevel,despiteasignificantstatewidevoterregistrationdisadvantageofmorethan1.2 millionvoters,RepublicanAnneCoveydefeatedDemocratKathrynBoockvarinher2011bidfor CommonwealthCourt,winningwith52.4%ofthevote.Intermsoffundraising,Coveyandheropponent wereevenlymatched,butourcampaignoperationandafavorableenvironmentputCoveyoverthetop inanoddyearelectionwhereturnouthoveredaround23%statewide. RepublicancandidateforSuperiorCourtVicStabilelosthisbidforSuperiorCourtonlybecauseofalate $300,000contributionfromPhiladelphiatriallawyersthatunfairlytiltedthecampaignwarchesttothe Democratsbya21margin.Coveyswinisaclearindicatorthatallwhenallfactorsareequal,President ObamasDemocratPartyisaliabilityforcandidatesrunninginPennsylvania.IntheSuperiorCourtrace, Democratshadtospendsignificantdollarstocompensatefortheirpartystoxicbrand. In2011,themoreinterestingimplicationsoccurredatthelocallevel,whereRepublicanstook13 courthousesoutofDemocratcontrol,expandingthemajorityofRepublicancontrolledcourthousesto 75%,from40in2007to51today(seefigure1andfigure2).
PaidforbytheRepublicanFederalCommitteeof Pennsylvania.Notauthorizedbyanycandidateorcandidatescommittee. 2011.www.pagop.org

Figure1:

Figure2:

PaidforbytheRepublicanFederalCommitteeof Pennsylvania.Notauthorizedbyanycandidateorcandidatescommittee. 2011.www.pagop.org

 Thefollowingcountycommissionercandidateswerevictorious: DougMcLinko,DarylMillerBradfordCounty MarkWissinger,DougLengenfelderCambriaCounty WayneNothstein,ThomasGerhardCarbonCounty SteveDershem,ChrisExarchosCentreCounty JeffreySnyder,PeteSmeltzClintonCounty DanFreeburg,JanisKemmerElkCounty BasilHuffman,NormanWimerForestCounty DanVogler,BobDelSignoreLawrenceCounty MattMcConnell,JohnLechnerMercerCounty JohnMoyer,CharlesGarrisMonroeCounty FrankStaudenmeier,GeorgeHalcovageSchuylkillCounty MikeGiangriego,AlanHallSusquehannaCounty ChuckAnderson,TylerCourtneyWestmorelandCounty NineofthesewinsoccurredinbluecountieswhereDemocratshavearegistrationadvantage Cambria,Carbon,Centre,Clinton,Elk,Lawrence,Mercer,MonroeandWestmoreland.Onlyfourofthe countieswepickedupBradford,Forest,SchuylkillandSusquehannahaveaRepublicanregistration advantage.InallofthesecountieswewitnessedRepublicans,IndependentsandevenDemocrats rejectingDemocraticcandidates,theirbiggovernmentagendaandPresidentObama,provingthatgreat RepublicancandidatescancompeteandwinevenintheDemocraticcountiesintheCommonwealth. Thestorylinesareevenmoreintriguingwhenlookingateachracecountybycountyandcasebycase. ConsiderWestmorelandCounty,whereDemocratsoutregisterRepublicans53%to38%,yet Republicanswonthecourthouseforthefirsttimeinmorethan50years,winningtwocommissioners andsweepingalloftherowoffices.CarbonCountycontinueditswinningstreakforathirdyearinarow, buildinguponasuccessfuljudicialracefortheCourtofCommonPleasin2009andasuccessfulState Representativeracein2010toamajorityofcommissionerpositionsin2011.Democratsoutregister RepublicansinCarbonCounty50.0%to37.3%.Inthesecases,weseeconservativeReaganDemocrats comingoutindrovesforRepublicancandidates.TheevenmoretellingstatisticisthatRepublican countycommissionercandidatesfinishedoneandtwo,garneringthemostandsecondmostvotes,by convincingmarginsinsevenoutofnineofthebluecountiesRepublicanswononElectionDay. Twolessonscanbelearnedfromthe2011elections.First,Republicanshaveatremendousadvantageat thegrassrootslevelwhereourvolunteerworkerscontinuedtoshowthattheyareactiveandengaged. Second,thewindthatwaswithRepublicansin2009and2010isstillblowinganditmaybeeven stronger.ItsnotjustKathrynBoockvarand13onceDemocratcontrolledcourthouses,butPresident Obamawholostlastweek.WhileeachcountyinPennsylvaniaisunique,auniversaldistastefor PresidentObamasfailedpolicieswasfoundeverywhereandRepublicansweresuccessfulinlargepart becausewerelatedtheongoingnationaldebatessurroundingspendingandtaxestoissuesatthelocal level.

PaidforbytheRepublicanFederalCommitteeof Pennsylvania.Notauthorizedbyanycandidateorcandidatescommittee. 2011.www.pagop.org

 Winningin2012 ThelessonsofthepastthreeyearstellusthatDemocratswillcontinuetostruggleundertheweightof PresidentObamasunpopularity.Adayisalifetimeinpolitics,butifthecurrentpoliticalnarrative sustainsthroughamajorityofnextyear,thehillPresidentObamaandhisDemocraticPartyneedto climbinordertowinelectionsgetssteeperbytheday.Thosehillsareturningintomountainsin Pennsylvania.ThePresidentsapprovalratingsarenowupsidedowninPennsylvaniawiththelatest Franklin&Marshallpollshowingthatonly42%believehedeservesreelection.Internalpollingwehave conductedinsouthwesternPennsylvania,hasPresidentObamasapprovalnumbersintheteensinsome counties. PlummetingapprovalratingscoupledwiththefactthatthePresidentsDemocraticPartyandhis candidateshavealreadylostthreeyearsinarowinPennsylvania,despitea1.2millionDemocratvoter registrationadvantage,shouldbeincrediblyworrisomeforhisreelectionteam.Itsclearthatthe2012 PresidentialelectionwillcomedowntoperennialbellwetherslikeOhioandFlorida,butPennsylvania,a statethatsomeexpertswereattemptingtowriteoffasleanDemocrathasprovenitselfaswingstate. PennsylvaniaRepublicanshavebuiltnearsupermajoritiesateverymeasurablelevel,controllingthe GovernorsandLt.Governorsoffice,aU.S.Senateseat,12of19Congressionalseats,30of50State SenateSeats,112of203StateRepresentativeseats,4outof7seatsontheSupremeCourt,9outof15 seatsontheSuperiorCourtand7outof9seatsontheCommonwealthCourtandnow,51of67county courthouses.Wewillbuilduponthesevictoriestoachieveourultimategoalin2012:delivering PennsylvaniafortheRepublicanpresidentialnominee,winninganadditionalU.S.SenateSeat,winning threestaterowofficepositions,electingRepublicancongressionalmembersandbuildingonour majoritiesintheStateSenateandStateHouse.

PaidforbytheRepublicanFederalCommitteeof Pennsylvania.Notauthorizedbyanycandidateorcandidatescommittee. 2011.www.pagop.org