EIIecLs oI exLreme ruInIuII on LIe exporL oI nuLrIenLs Irom ugrIcuILuruI Iund

AbsLrucL
n this study, plot and watershed scale experiments were conducted to study the effect
of some extraordinary rainfalls on the export of nutrients from agricultural land. The
results of three-year plot experiments show that more than 50% of annual nitrogen and
phosphorus losses via surface runoff happened between June and August, when the
monsoon and typhoon rains are heavy and frequent. During the three largest storms,
35.7%-52.4% of the annual N and 46.8% -66.4% of the annual P were exported by
surface runoff from different land use types. Nutrient concentrations increased with
hydrological process during storm flow, decreased with the prolongation of storms yet
remained at higher concentrations compared with base flow time. About 30% of N and
more than 40% of the annual P loads were exported from the watershed by the four
largest storms. Reducing agricultural practices such as tillage and fertilization during
frequent heavy rainfall period are effective ways for mitigating agricultural nonpoint
source pollution.






Projected
Change
Projected Impacts by Sector
Agriculture,
forestry
Water
resources
Human
health/
mortality
Industry/settlement/society
Warmer/fewer
cold
days/nights;
warmer/more
hot days/nights
over most land
areas.
Increased
yields in
colder
environments;
decreased
yields in
warmer
environments;
EIIects on
water
resources
relying on
snow melt
Reduced
human
mortality
Irom
decreased
cold
exposure
Reduced energy demand Ior
heating; increased demand
Ior cooling; declining air
quality in cities; reduced
eIIects oI snow, ice etc.
Warm
spells/heat
waves:
frequency
increases over
most land
areas
Reduced
yields in
warmer
regions due to
heat stress at
key devel.
stages; Iire
danger
increase
Increased
water demand;
water quality
problems, e.g.,
algal blooms
Increased
risk oI
heat-
related
mortality
Reduction in quality oI liIe
Ior people in warm areas
without air conditioning;
impacts on elderly and very
young; reduced
thermoelectric power
production eIIiciency
Heavy
precipitation
events:
frequency
increases over
most areas
Damage to
crops; soil
erosion,
inability to
cultivate land,
water logging
oI soils
Adverse
eIIects on
quality oI
surIace and
groundwater;
contamination
oI water
supply
Deaths,
injuries,
inIectious
diseases,
allergies
and
dermatitis
Irom
Iloods and
landslides
Disruption oI settlements,
commerce, transport and
societies due to Ilooding;
pressures on urban and rural
inIrastructures
Area affected
by drought:
increases
Land
degradation,
lower
yields/crop
damage and
Iailure;
More
widespread
water stress
Increased
risk oI
Iood and
water
shortage
and wild
Water shortages Ior
settlements, industry and
societies; reduced
hydropower generation
potentials; potentials Ior
livestock
deaths; land
degradation
Iires;
increased
risk oI
water- and
Iood-
borne
diseases
population migration
umber of
intense
tropical
cyclones:
increases
Damage to
crops;
windthrow oI
trees
Power outages
cause
disruption oI
public water
supply
Increased
risk oI
deaths,
injuries,
water- and
Iood-
borne
diseases
Disruption by Ilood and high
winds; withdrawal oI risk
coverage in vulnerable areas
by private insurers
Incidence of
extreme high
sea level:
increases
Salinization oI
irrigation and
well water
Decreased
Ireshwater
availability
due to
saltwater
intrusion
Increase
in deaths
by
drowning
in Iloods;
increase in
stress-
related
disease
Costs oI coastal
protection versus costs of
land-use relocation; also see
tropical cyclones above

Health and Environmental
Effects
Many elements of human society and the environment are
sensitive to climate variability and change. Human health,
agriculture, natural ecosystems, coastal areas, and heating
and cooling requirements are examples of climate-sensitive
systems.
#ising average temperatures are already affecting the
environment. Some observed changes include shrinking of
glaciers, thawing of permafrost, later freezing and earlier
break-up of ice on rivers and lakes, lengthening of growing
seasons, shifts in plant and animal ranges and earlier
flowering of trees (IPCC, 2007).
Global temperatures are expected to continue to rise as
human activities continue to add carbon dioxide, methane,
nitrous oxide, and other greenhouse (or heat-trapping) gases
to the atmosphere. Most of the United States is expected to
experience an increase in average temperature (IPCC, 2007).
Precipitation changes, which are also very important to
consider when assessing climate change effects, are more
difficult to predict. Whether or not rainfall will increase or
decrease remains difficult to project for specific regions.
The extent of climate change effects, and whether these
effects prove harmful or beneficial, will vary by region, over
time, and with the ability of different societal and
environmental systems to adapt to or cope with the change.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC,
2007) concludes that "impacts of climate change will vary
regionally but, aggregated and discounted to the present,
they are very likely to impose net annual costs which will
increase over time as global temperatures increase. The
IPCC estimates that for increases in global mean temperature
of less than 1-3C (1.8-5.4F) above 1990 levels, some
places and sectors will see beneficial impacts while others will
experience harmful ones. Some low-latitude and polar
regions are expected to experience net costs even for small
increases in temperature. For increases in temperature
greater than 2-3C (3.6-5.4F), the IPCC says it is very likely
that all regions will experience either declines in net benefits
or increases in net costs. "Taken as a whole, the IPCC
concludes, "the range of published evidence indicates that
the net damage costs of climate change are likely to be
significant and to increase over time.

Health
Throughout the world, the prevalence of
some diseases and other threats to human
health depend largely on local climate.
Extreme temperatures can lead directly to
loss of life, while climate-related
disturbances in ecological systems, such
as changes in the range of infective
parasites, can indirectly impact the
incidence of serious infectious diseases. In
addition, warm temperatures can increase
air and water pollution, which in turn harm
human health.
Human health is strongly affected by social, political,
economic, environmental and technological factors, including
urbanization, affluence, scientific developments, individual
behavior and individual vulnerability (e.g., genetic makeup,
nutritional status, emotional well-being, age, gender and
economic status). The extent and nature of climate change
impacts on human health vary by region, by relative
vulnerability of population groups, by the extent and duration
of exposure to climate change itself and by societys ability to
adapt to or cope with the change.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC,
2007) concluded:
Human beings are exposed to climate change through
changing weather patterns (for example, more intense and
frequent extreme events) and indirectly through changes in
water, air, food quality and quantity, ecosystems,
agriculture, and economy. At this early stage the effects are
small but are projected to progressively increase in all
countries and regions.
Given the complexity of factors that influence human health,
assessing health impacts related to climate change poses a
difficult challenge. Furthermore, climate change is expected
to bring a few benefits to health, including fewer deaths due
to exposure to cold. Nonetheless, the IPCC has concluded
that, overall (globally), negative climate-related health
impacts are expected to outweigh positive health impacts
during this century (IPCC, 2007). At the same time, the
quality of medical care and public health systems in the
United States may lessen climate impacts on human health
within the U.S.
irect Temperature Effects
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has produced
the Excessive Heat Events Guidebook with the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Centers for Disease Control
and Prevention (CDC), and the Department of Homeland Security
(DHS). Municipal officials in both the U.S. and Canada provided
useful information that can be used to help the public cope with
excessive heat.
Designed to help community officials, emergency managers,
meteorologists, and others plan for and respond to excessive heat
events, the guidebook highlights best practices that have been
employed to save lives during excessive heat events in different
urban areas and provides a menu of options that officials can use to
respond to these events in their communities.
Climate change may directly affect human health through
increases in average temperature. Such increases may lead
to more extreme heat waves during the summer while
producing less extreme cold spells during the winter. #ising
average temperatures are predicted to increase the incidence
of heat waves and hot extremes. In the United States,
Chicago is projected to experience 25 percent more frequent
heat waves and Los Angeles a four-to-eight-fold increase in
heat wave days by the end of the century (IPCC, 2007).
Particular segments of the population such as those with
heart problems, asthma, the elderly, the very young and the
homeless can be especially vulnerable to extreme heat.
Extreme Events
Extreme weather events can be destructive to human health
and well-being. The extent to which climate change may
affect the frequency and severity of these events, such as
hurricanes and extreme heat and floods, is being investigated
by the U.S. Global Change #esearch Program. An increase in
the frequency of extreme events may result in more event-
related deaths, injuries, infectious diseases, and stress-
related disorders.
Agriculture and Food Supply
Agriculture is highly sensitive to climate variability and
weather extremes, such as droughts, floods and severe
storms. The forces that shape our climate are also critical to
farm productivity. Human activity has already changed
atmospheric characteristics such as temperature, rainfall,
levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) and ground level ozone. The
scientific community expects such trends to continue. While
food production may benefit from a warmer climate, the
increased potential for droughts, floods and heat waves will
pose challenges for farmers. Additionally, the enduring
changes in climate, water supply and soil moisture could
make it less feasible to continue crop production in certain
regions.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC,
2007) concluded:
#ecent studies indicate that increased frequency of heat
stress, droughts and floods negatively affect crop yields and
livestock beyond the impacts of mean climate change,
creating the possibility for surprises, with impacts that are
larger, and occurring earlier, than predicted using changes in
mean variables alone. This is especially the case for
subsistence sectors at low latitudes. Climate variability and
change also modify the risks of fires, pest and pathogen
outbreak, negatively affecting food, fiber and forestry.
limate Factors
Several factors directly connect climate change and
agricultural productivity:
O Average temperature increase
O Change in rainfall amount and patterns
O #ising atmospheric concentrations of CO2
O Pollution levels such as tropospheric ozone
O Change in climatic variability and extreme events
Most agricultural impact studies have considered the effects
of one or two aspects of climate change on a particular
farming activity. Few, however, have considered the full set
of anticipated shifts and their impact on agricultural
production across the country.
Average temperature increase: An increase in average
temperature can 1) lengthen the growing season in regions
with a relatively cool spring and fall; 2) adversely affect
crops in regions where summer heat already limits
production; 3) increase soil evaporation rates, and 4)
increase the chances of severe droughts.
Change in rainfall amount and patterns: Changes in rainfall
can affect soil erosion rates and soil moisture, both of which
are important for crop yields. The IPCC predicts that
precipitation will increase in high latitudes, and decrease in
most subtropical land regions-some by as much as about 20
percent. While regional precipitation will vary the number of
extreme precipitation events is predicted to increase (IPCC,
2007).
#ising atmospheric concentrations of CO2: Increasing
atmospheric CO2 levels, driven by emissions from human
activities, can act as a fertilizer and enhance the growth of
some crops such as wheat, rice and soybeans. CO2 can be
one of a number of limiting factors that, when increased, can
enhance crop growth. Other limiting factors include water
and nutrient availability. While it is expected that
CO2 fertilization will have a positive impact on some crops,
other aspects of climate change (e.g., temperature and
precipitation changes) may temper any beneficial
CO2 fertilization effect (IPCC, 2007).
Pollution levels such as tropospheric ozone: Higher levels of
ground level ozone limit the growth of crops. Since ozone
levels in the lower atmosphere are shaped by both emissions
and temperature, climate change will most likely increase
ozone concentrations. Such changes may offset any
beneficial yield effects that result from elevated CO2 levels.
Change in climatic variability and extreme events: Changes
in the frequency and severity of heat waves, drought, floods
and hurricanes, remain a key uncertainty in future climate
change. Such changes are anticipated by global climate
models, but regional changes and the potential affects on
agriculture are more difficult to forecast.
Forests
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC,
2007) concluded that there may be significant regional
transitions associated with shifts in forest location and
composition in the U.S. due to climate change. Climate
change is likely to alter the geographic distribution of North
American forests, including regionally important tree species,
such as New England sugar maples and boreal forests in
Alaska.
The effects of climate change on forests in the U.S. and other
parts of the world will depend not only on climatic factors but
also on stresses from pollution (e.g., acid rain); future trends
in forest management practices, including fire control and
demand for timber; and land-use change. It is difficult to
separate the influence of climate change from these other
pressures.
Climate change effects on forests are likely to include
changes in forest health and productivity and changes in the
geographic range of certain tree species. These effects can in
turn alter timber production, outdoor recreational activities,
water quality, wildlife and rates of carbon storage.

limate Factors
In general, forests are sensitive to climatic variability and
change. Climatic factors that influence forest health-
temperature, rainfall, atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide
(CO2) and other greenhouse gases and extreme weather and
fire events-are changing and are expected to continue
changing due to human activities.
The following climate factors are likely to play an important
role in determining future forest conditions:
O Air temperature
O Precipitation amount and seasonal distribution
O Atmospheric CO2 concentrations
O Frequency and severity of wildfire events
O Climatic variability and the frequency and severity of
extreme events
O Indirect effects on pollution levels such as tropospheric
ozone
Ecosystems and Biodiversity
The overwhelming majority of studies of regional climate
effects on terrestrial species reveal consistent responses to
warming trends, including poleward and elevational range
shifts of flora and fauna. #esponses of terrestrial species to
warming across the Northern Hemisphere are well
documented by changes in the timing of growth stages (i.e.,
phenological changes), especially the earlier onset of spring
events, migration, and lengthening of the growing season
(IPCC, 2007).
An ecosystem is an interdependent, functioning system of
plants, animals and microorganisms. An ecosystem can be as
large as the Mojave Desert, or as small as a local pond.
Without the support of the other organisms within their own
ecosystem, life forms would not survive, much less thrive.
Such support requires that predators and prey, fire and
water, food and shelter, clean air and open space remain in
balance with each other and with the environment around
them.
Climate is an integral part of ecosystems and organisms have
adapted to their regional climate over time. Climate change
is a factor that has the potential to alter ecosystems and the
many resources and services they provide to each other and
to society. Human societies depend on ecosystems for the
natural, cultural, spiritual, recreational and aesthetic
resources they provide.
In various regions across the world, some high-altitude and
high-latitude ecosystems have already been affected by
changes in climate. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) reviewed relevant published studies of
biological systems and concluded that 20 percent to 30
percent of species assessed may be at risk of extinction from
climate change impacts within this century if global mean
temperatures exceed 2-3 C (3.6-5.4 F) relative to pre-
industrial levels (IPCC, 2007).
These changes can cause adverse or beneficial effects on
species. For example, climate change could benefit certain
plant or insect species by increasing their ranges. The
resulting impacts on ecosystems and humans, however,
could be positive or negative depending on whether these
species were invasive (e.g., weeds or mosquitoes) or if they
were valuable to humans (e.g., food crops or pollinating
insects). The risk of extinction could increase for many
species, especially those that are already endangered or at
risk due to isolation by geography or human development,
low population numbers, or a narrow temperature tolerance
range.
Observations of ecosystem impacts are difficult to use in
future projections because of the complexities involved in
human/nature interactions (e.g., land use change).
Nevertheless, the observed changes are compelling examples
of how rising temperatures can affect the natural world and
raise questions of how vulnerable populations will adapt to
direct and indirect effects associated with climate change.
The IPCC (IPCC, 2007) has noted,
During the course of this century the resilience of many
ecosystems (their ability to adapt naturally) is likely to be
exceeded by an unprecedented combination of change in
climate and in other global change drivers (especially land
use change and overexploitation), if greenhouse gas
emissions and other changes continue at or above current
rates. By 2100 ecosystems will be exposed to atmospheric
CO2levels substantially higher than in the past 650,000
years, and global temperatures at least among the highest as
those experienced in the past 740,000 years. This will alter
the structure, reduce biodiversity and perturb functioning of
most ecosystems, and compromise the services they
currently provide.


oastal Zones and Sea Level
Rise
Coastal zones are particularly vulnerable to climate variability
and change. Key concerns include sea level rise, land loss,
changes in maritime storms and flooding, responses to sea
level rise and implications for water resources.
Sea Level Rise
Sea level is rising along most of the U.S. coast, and around
the world. In the last century, sea level rose 5 to 6 inches
more than the global average along the Mid-Atlantic and Gulf
Coasts, because coastal lands there are subsiding.
EPA, in coordination with the U.S. Geological Survey and the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, has published a
report, "Coastal Sensitivity to Sea Level #ise: A Focus on the Mid-
Atlantic #egion." The study is one of 21 climate change
studiescommissioned being conducted by the U.S. Global Change
#esearch Program (USGC#P)."Coastal Sensitivity to Sea-Level #ise:
A Focus on the Mid-Atlantic #egion" discusses the possible impacts
of sea-level rise and how governments and communities can
respond to rising waters.
Higher temperatures are expected to further raise sea level
by expanding ocean water, melting mountain glaciers and
small ice caps, and causing portions of Greenland and the
Antarctic ice sheets to melt. The International Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that the global average sea
level will rise between 0.6 and 2 feet (0.18 to 0.59 meters) in
the next century (IPCC, 2007).
The range reflects uncertainty about global temperature
projections and how rapidly ice sheets will melt or slide into
the ocean in response to the warmer temperatures.
Furthermore, some processes affecting sea level have long
(centuries and longer) time-scales, so that current sea level
change is also related to past climate change, and some
relevant processes are not determined solely by climate.
Climate models, satellite data and hydrographic observations
demonstrate that sea level is not rising uniformly around the
world. Depending on the region, sea level has risen several
times the global mean rise, or has actually fallen (IPCC,
2007). While current model projections indicate substantial
variability in future sea level rise at regional and local scales,
the IPCC has concluded that the impacts are "virtually certain
to be overwhelmingly negative (IPCC, 2007).
#ising sea levels inundate wetlands and
other low-lying lands, erode beaches,
intensify flooding, and increase the
salinity of rivers, bays, and groundwater
tables. Some of these effects may be
further compounded by other effects of a
changing climate. Additionally, measures
that people take to protect private
property from rising sea level may have adverse effects on
the environment and on public uses of beaches and
waterways. Some property owners and state and local
governments are already starting to take measures to
prepare for the consequences of rising sea level.
Top of page
Land Loss
Coastal wetland ecosystems, such as salt marshes and
mangroves are particularly vulnerable to rising sea level
because they are generally within a few feet of sea level
(IPCC, 2007). Wetlands provide habitat for many species,
play a key role in nutrient uptake, serve as the basis for
many communities economic livelihoods, provide
recreational opportunities, and protect local areas from
flooding.
As the sea
rises, the
outer
boundary of
these
wetlands will
erode, and
new
wetlands will
form inland
as previously
dry areas are
flooded by
the higher
water levels.
The amount of newly created wetlands, however, could be
much smaller than the lost area of wetlands - especially in
developed areas protected with bulkheads, dikes, and other
structures that keep new wetlands from forming inland. The
IPCC suggests that by 2080, sea level rise could convert as
much as 33 percent of the worlds coastal wetlands to open
water. (IPCC, 2007). Tidal wetlands are generally found
between sea level and the highest tide over the monthly
lunar cycle. As a result, areas with small tide ranges are the
most vulnerable. An EPA #eport to Congress estimated that a
two foot rise in sea level could eliminate 17-43 percent of
U.S. wetlands, with more than half the loss taking place in
Louisiana (EPA, 1989).
Nationwide, about 5000 square miles of dry land are within
two feet of high tide. Although the majority of this land is
currently undeveloped, many coastal counties are growing
rapidly. Land within a few feet above the tides could be
inundated by rising sea level, unless additional dikes and
bulkheads are constructed. A two foot rise in sea level would
eliminate approximately 10,000 square miles of land
(PDF) (26 pp, 267K) including current wetlands and newly
inundated dry land, an area equal to the combined size of
Massachusetts and Delaware (EPA, 1989).
Some of the most economically important vulnerable areas
are recreational resorts on the coastal barriers of the Atlantic
and Gulf coasts. In many cases, the ocean-front block of
these islands is 5 to 10 feet above high tide; but the bay
sides are often less than two feet above high water and
regularly flooded (see USGS's 7.5-minute map series).
Erosion threatens the high ocean sides of these densely
developed islands and is generally viewed as a more
immediate problem than inundation of their low bay sides.
Many ocean shores are currently eroding 1 to 4 feet per year
(FEMA, 2000).
Top of page
Storms and Flooding
Sea level rise also increases the
vulnerability of coastal areas to flooding
during storms for several reasons. First, a
given storm surge from a hurricane or
northeaster builds on top of a higher base
of water. Considering only this effect,
a #eport to Congress by FEMA (1991) estimated that existing
development in the U.S. Coastal Zone would experience a
36-58 percent increase in annual damages for a 1-foot rise in
sea level, and a 102-200 percent increase for a 3-foot rise.
Shore erosion also increases vulnerability to storms, by
removing the beaches and dunes that would otherwise
protect coastal property from storm waves (FEMA 2000). Sea
level rise also increases coastal flooding from rainstorms,
because low areas drain more slowly as sea level rises.
Other impacts of climate change may further enhance or
mitigate coastal flooding. Flooding from rainstorms may
become worse if higher temperatures lead to increasing
rainfall intensity during severe storms. An increase in the
intensity of tropical storms would increase flood and wind
damages.
ater Resources
All regions of the world show an overall net negative impact
of climate change on water resources and freshwater
ecosystems. Areas in which runoff is projected to decline are
likely to face a reduction in the value of the services provided
by water resources. The beneficial impacts of increased
annual runoff in other areas are likely to be tempered in
some areas by negative effects of increased precipitation
variability and seasonal runoff shifts on water supply, water
quality and flood risks (IPCC, 2007)
The future effects of climate change on water resources in
the U.S. and other parts of the world will depend on trends in
both climatic and non-climatic factors. Evaluating these
impacts is challenging because water availability, quality and
streamflow are sensitive to changes in temperature and
precipitation. Other important factors include increased
demand for water caused by population growth, changes in
the economy, development of new technologies, changes in
watershed characteristics and water management decisions.
In addition to the typical impacts on water management,
climate change introduces an additional element of
uncertainty about future water resource management. Water
resources in the United States are heavily managed and
supplies are scarce in some regions of the country. Strategies
have been developed and continue to evolve to address
these issues. Implementation of adaptation measures, such
as water conservation, use of markets to allocate water, and
the application of appropriate management practices will
have an important role to play in determining the impacts of
climate change on water resources.
Energy Production and Use
Energy production and use are sensitive to changes in the
climate. For example, increasing temperatures will reduce
consumption of energy for heating but increase energy used
for cooling buildings. The implications of climate change for
energy supply are less clear than for energy demand.
Climate change effects on energy supply and demand will
depend not only on climatic factors, but also on patterns of
economic growth, land use, population growth and
distribution, technological change and social and cultural
trends that shape individual and institutional actions.
To address this issue, the U.S. Climate Change Science
Program (CCSP) commissioned an analysis on the Effects of
Climate Change on Energy Production and Use in the United
States. The analysis was led by the U.S. Department of
Energy and was published in October 2007.
Energy Use
Changes in temperature due to climate change could affect
our demand for energy. For example, rising air temperatures
will likely lead to substantial increases in energy demand for
air conditioning in most North American cities (IPCC, 2007).
On the other hand, energy needed for space-heating may
decrease. The net effects of these changes on energy
production, use and utility bills, will vary by region and by
season.
There may also be changes in energy consumed for other
climate-sensitive processes, such as pumping water for
irrigation in agriculture. #ising temperatures and associated
increases in evaporation may increase energy needs for
irrigation, particularly in dry regions across the Western U.S.
Depending on the magnitude of these possible energy
consumption changes, it may be necessary to consider
changes in energy supply or conservation practices to
balance demand. Many other factors (e.g., population
growth, economic growth, energy efficiency changes and
technological change) will also affect the timing and size of
future changes in the capacity of energy systems (IPCC,
2007).
Top of page
Energy Production
To date, less research has been undertaken on how climate
change may affect energy production. Some of the possible
effects are discussed below.
O Hydropower generation is the energy source that is
likely to be most directly affected by climate change
because it is sensitive to the amount, timing and
geographical pattern of precipitation and temperature.
Furthermore, hydropower needs may increasingly
conflict with other priorities, such as salmon
restoration goals in the Pacific Northwest (IPCC,
2007). However, changes in precipitation are difficult
to project at the regional scale, which means that
climate change will affect hydropower either positively
and negatively, depending on the region.
O Infrastructure for energy production, transmission and
distribution could be affected by climate change. For
example, if a warmer climate is characterized by more
extreme weather events such as windstorms, ice
storms, floods, tornadoes and hail, the transmission
systems of electric utilities may experience a higher
rate of failure, with attendant costs (IPCC, 2007).
O Power plant operations can be affected by extreme heat
waves. For example, intake water that is normally
used to cool power plants become warm enough
during extreme heat events that it compromises power
plant operations.
O Finally, some renewable sources of energy could be
affected by climate change, although these changes
are very difficult to predict. If climate change leads to
increased cloudiness, solar energy production could be
reduced. Wind energy production would be reduced if
wind speeds increase above or fall below the
acceptable operating range of the technology. Changes
in growing conditions could affect biomass production,
a transportation and power plant fuel source that is
starting to receive more attention (IPCC, 2007).
Public Lands, Recreational
Opportunities, and Natural
Resources
Many parks, refuges, and wilderness areas were designated
for their unique characteristics and habitats. As species
migrate in response to climate variability and change, these
areas may no longer be able to support the flora and fauna
that now reside there. (USGS, 2006)
National Parks, National Wildlife #efuges, and other protected
areas harbor unique environments and wildlife not found
elsewhere. This raises particular concerns about the
vulnerability of these ecosystems to a changing climate.
Many parks and refuges are designated to protect rare
natural features or particular species of plants and animals.
Changes in climate could create new stresses on natural
communities, and, in the absence of adaptation, lead to the
loss of valued resources.
National Parks and Other Protected Areas
Approximately 30 percent of the nation's land, almost 700
million acres, is owned by the public, over 80 million acres of
which are managed by the National Park Service for the
"enjoyment of future generations."
National parks and other protected areas are currently
susceptible to events influenced by climatic variability, such
as drought, wild fires, impaired air quality, and severe
storms. Climate change may change the frequency and
severity of these kinds of events. In some regions, the risk
for drought and wildfire, for example, may increase with
climate change (IPCC, 2007). Along coastal regions, sea level
rise could erode and inundate the beaches of the National
Seashores and the wetlands of various National Wildlife
#efuges and National Parks, precipitating loss of beaches,
loss of habitat in estuarine ecosystems, and damage to
property and natural resources from storm surges (IPCC,
2007).
Observations show that changing climatic conditions are
already affecting some parks. For example, Montana's Glacier
National Park has only 27 glaciers today, down from an
estimated 150 glaciers in 1850. The largest glaciers in the
park are, on average, only 28 percent of their previous size
(Our Changing Planet, FY2006). #etreat of mountain glaciers
has already begun in other parts of North America and in
other regions of the world as well (IPCC, 2007).
Bleaching of coral reefs has occurred near the Florida Keys in
association with periods of climate variability, such as the
1997-98 El Nio according to NOAA's Coral Health and
Monitoring Program (CHAMP). Therefore, it is likely that
warmer water temperatures could lead to further bleaching
events in the future.
In 2001 the National Park Service (NPS), the U.S. Fish and
Wildlife Service and the U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency (EPA) formed a partnership to create the Climate
Change, Wildlife and Wildlands Toolkit for Teachers and
Interpreters to help educators teach their students about the
potential effects of climate change in parks, refuges and
other protected areas. In 2003, the NPS and the EPA created
a new program called Climate Friendly Parks (CFP). Through
the CFP program, the two partner agencies are finding ways
to reduce emissions from park activities. They are also
educating the public about potential impacts in the parks and
what the agencies are doing to address them.
Lxtreme neat nea|th Lffects
osslbly lnfluenced by a changlng cllmaLe many reglons of Canada are
experlenclng prolonged perlods of unusually hoL condlLlons lL ls
lmporLanL LhaL Canadlans know how Lo proLecL Lhemselves and Lhelr
famllles from Lhe healLh effecLs of exLreme heaL

unusually hoL weaLher condlLlons affecL Lhe body by pushlng lL beyond
lLs llmlLs When LemperaLures and humldlLy are hlgh Lhe body musL
work exLra hard Lo malnLaln a normal LemperaLure

MosL heaL dlsorders occur because people have been overexposed Lo
heaL or have overexerclsed for Lhelr age and physlcal condlLlon uurlng
a heaL wave everyone ls aL rlsk buL some groups are more vulnerable
Lhan oLhers 1hey lnclude

en|ors
lnfanLs and preschool chlldren
eople on dlalysls or wlLh chronlc dlseases such as dlabeLes hearL
dlsease and resplraLory dlseases
eople who play sporLs or exerclse vlgorously ouLdoors
eople who do sLrenuous ouLdoor work for prolonged perlods of Llme
ConsLrucLlon workers (or oLher ouLdoor manual labourers)
eople who work ln places where heaL ls emlLLed Lhrough lndusLrlal
processes (eg foundrles bakerles dry cleaners)
eople Laklng cerLaln medlcaLlons such as psychlaLrlc drugs anLl
depressanLs anLlarklnsons drugs dlureLlcs some anLlhlsLamlnes
overLhecounLer sleep medlcaLlons and anLldlarrhea pllls
1he homeless
regnanL women
eople who are overwelghL
PealLh 8lsks of LxLreme PeaL

A heaL wave generally refers Lo aL leasL Lhree consecuLlve days wlLh
unseasonably hlgh LemperaLures ofLen accompanled by hlgh humldlLy
and where Lhe LemperaLure does noL cool down slgnlflcanLly aL nlghL
LxLreme heaL can cause severe lllness and even deaLh

1he followlng are some of Lhe condlLlons LhaL may arlse durlng hlgh
LemperaLures
neat Cramps
1hese are palnful spasms usually ln Lhe leg and sLomach muscles and
usually accompanled by heavy sweaLlng
1hey can be allevlaLed by movlng Lo a cooler place and llghLly
massaglng and sLreLchlng Lhe affecLed muscles eople experlenclng
heaL cramps should also slp up Lo half a glass of cool waLer every 13
mlnuLes


neat Lxhaust|on
uurlng heaL exhausLlon a person may be sweaLlng heavlly buL Lhelr
skln may be cool pale or flushed CLher sympLoms are a weak pulse
falnLlng dlzzlness nausea vomlLlng exhausLlon and headaches 8ody
LemperaLure may be normal buL lL wlll llkely rlse

eople sufferlng from heaL exhausLlon should lle down ln a cool place
loosen or remove cloLhlng and puL on cool weL cloLhes 1hey should slp
waLer slowly abouL half a glass every 13 mlnuLes WaLer should be
dlsconLlnued lf Lhey are nauseaLed 1hey should seek lmmedlaLe
medlcal aLLenLlon lf vomlLlng occurs

neat troke (a|so ca||ed un troke)
1hls ls a severe medlcal emergency LhaL can resulL ln deaLh 8ody
LemperaLure ls hlgh (103 l or 394 C) as opposed Lo normal body
LemperaLure of 983 l or 37 C Lhe pulse ls sLrong and rapld and
breaLhlng ls shallow and rapld 1he person sufferlng heaL sLroke may be
experlenclng Lhrobblng headache dlzzlness nausea confuslon have
red hoL and dry skln (noL sweaLlng) and may become unconsclous
1hls person should be Laken Lo a hosplLal as qulckly as posslble uelay
can be faLal Ln rouLe keep Lhe person as cool as posslble by removlng
cloLhlng and sponglng wlLh cool waLer





ther Lffects
PeaL can also aggravaLe oLher condlLlons such as
PearL dlsease especlally hlgh blood pressure
kldney dlsorders
sychlaLrlc dlsorders
PeaL waves may make alr quallLy problems (such as smog) worse and
lncrease Lhe rlsks of resplraLory or cardlovascular lllness lf a heaL wave
ls accompanled by alr polluLlon anyone wlLh chronlc lung condlLlons
such as bronchlLls or emphysema or wlLh a varleLy of cardlac condlLlons
could be parLlcularly affecLed

M|n|m|z|ng our k|sk
uurlng perlods of exLreme heaL Lake Lhese precauLlons

keep out of the heat
ay aLLenLlon Lo Lhe weaLher forecasLs lf unusually hoL condlLlons are
forecasL Lry and plan your day ln a way LhaL allows you Lo sLay ouL of
Lhe heaL

lf you musL be ouLdoors durlng hoL weaLher Lry Lo llmlL your acLlvlLy Lo
mornlng and evenlng 8esL ofLen ln a shady area so LhaL your bodys
LemperaLure has a chance Lo recover

lf you musL go ouL sLay ln Lhe shade wear a wldebrlmmed haL
sunglasses and llghL looseflLLlng cloLhlng

lf you wlll be ouLslde for some Llme drlnk plenLy of waLer

lf you are Lhe parenL or careglver of lnfanLs or young chlldren lf
posslble avold Laklng Lhem ouL ln perlods of exLreme heaL 8uL lf you
musL go ouL dress Lhem ln cool loose cloLhlng shade Lhelr heads or
faces wlLh haLs or umbrellas and provlde plenLy of llqulds for Lhem Lo
drlnk

tay coo|
SLay cool lndoors Lake cool showers ofLen or weL your hands face and
Lhe back of your neck
8educe Lhe use of your oven and sLove Lo keep your home cooler 1urn
llghLs off or down low keep shades or drapes drawn on Lhe sunny slde
of your house and keep wlndows sllghLly open Cpen Lhem wlde aL
nlghL Lo cool Lhe house
lf you donL have alr condlLlonlng spend parL of Lhe day ln an alr
condlLloned place such as a shopplng mall llbrary communlLy cenLre or
clnema
never leave lnfanLs chlldren or peLs unaLLended ln a parked car

Dr|nk kegu|ar|y
urlnk plenLy of waLer and naLural frulL [ulces uonL walL unLll you are
LhlrsLy Lo drlnk lf you do heavy physlcal acLlvlLy durlng hoL weaLher
drlnk Lwo Lo four glasses of cool llqulds per hour

uonL drlnk llqulds LhaL conLaln alcohol caffelne or large amounLs of
sugar 1hey may acLually cause your body Lo lose more fluld Also avold
very cold drlnks because Lhey may cause sLomach cramps
Peavy sweaLlng causes your body Lo lose salL and mlnerals 1hese musL
be replaced by drlnklng cool drlnks or sporLs beverages
lf you have epllepsy hearL dlsease llver or kldney dlsease or lf you are
on a fluldresLrlcLed dleL consulL your docLor before lncreaslng your
fluld lnLake

eek adv|ce |f you have any concerns
CeL help from a frlend relaLlve or docLor lf you are worrled abouL your
healLh durlng a heaL wave
WaLch for cramplng ln your arms legs or sLomach feellngs of mlld
confuslon weakness or problems sleeplng
lf you Lake medlcaLlon check wlLh your docLor or pharmaclsL on Lhelr
slde effecLs durlng exLreme heaL
Check regularly on famlly frlends or nelghbours who are aL hlgher rlsk
of heaLrelaLed lllnesses and who do noL have alr condlLlonlng Lo see
LhaL Lhey are all rlghL
keep a waLchful eye! uurlng heaL emergencles lL ls lmporLanL Lo keep a
lookouL for Lhe mosL vulnerable ln your communlLy WheLher lLs a
nelghbour a parenL or a frlend do noL heslLaLe Lo offer asslsLance ln
person or by Lelephone ln an emergency call 911



TEMPERATURE EFFECTS
. General Impacts
The impact oI temperature on morbidity and mortality can be assessed at both the
seasonal and daily level. The variability in occurrence oI numerous illnesses is linked
to somewhat predictable seasonal trends in temperature (Persinger, 1980), although
sig niIicant year-to-year diIIerences do occur. Medical disorders such as bronchitis,
peptic ulcer, adrenal ulcer, glaucoma, goiter, eczema, and herpes zoster are related to
seasonal variations in temperature (Tromp, 1963). Heart Iailure (most oIten myocardia
l inIarction) and cerebrovascular accidents represent two general mortality categories
that have been correlated many times with ambient monthly temperatures (Persinger,
1980). Complications Irom these disorders can be expected at higher temperatures
sinc e the body responds to thermal stress by Iorcing blood into peripheral areas to
promote heat loss through the skin. This increases central blood pressure and
encourages constriction oI blood vessels near the core oI the body. However,
increases in heart d isease are also noted at very cold temperatures as well. Strong
negative correlations have been Iound between winter temperature and deaths in
certain North American, northern Asian, and European countries (Persinger, 1980).
The degree oI seasonality in the climate oI a region also appears to aIIect mortality
rates. Katayama and Momiyama-Sakamoto (1970) reported that countries with
smaller seasonal temperature ranges exhibit steeper regression lines in temperature-
mortality c orrelations than do countries with greater temperature ranges. Maximum
death rates in warmer countries are Iound at below normal temperatures, and in cooler
countries similar temperatures will produce no appreciable rise in mortality.
There is conIlicting evidence concerning the impact oI daily temperature Iluctuations
on human mortality. Some studies contend that mostly long-term (i.e., monthly and
annual) Iluctuations in temperature aIIect mortality (Sakamoto and Katayama, 1971)
and only small, irregular aberrations can be explained by daily temperature variability
(Persinger, 1980). However, Kalkstein and Davis (1985) report that daily Iluctuations
in temperature can increase mortality rates by up to 50 in certain cities. This has
been corroborated in a detailed study oI New York City mortality where large
increases in total and elderly mortality occurred during the 1980 heat wave (Figure V-
1).
. Impacts of Hot Weather
a. General Relationships
Much oI the temperature-mortality research has concentrated on heat and cold wave
episodes. It appears that hot weather extremes have a more substantial impact than
cold, and many "heat stress" indices have been developed to assess the degree oI
impact (Q uayle and Doehring, 1981; Kalkstein, 1982; Steadman, 1984). Driscoll
(1971b) related 19 diIIerent meteorological variables with total mortality and other
more speciIic mortality classes (cause oI death, age) and identiIied high temperature
as the most imp ortant causal mechanism in summer. Many other studies support this
relationship between temperature and mortality (Ellis, 1972; Ellis et al., 1975; Oechsli
and Buechley, 1970). Interestingly, a majority oI studies have Iound that most oI the
excess deaths that occurred during periods oI intense heat were not attributed to
causes traditionally considered to be weather-related, such as heat stroke (Gover,
1938). Consequently, many researchers continue to utilize total mortality Iigures in
their analyses, as deaths Irom a surprisingly large number oI causes appear to escalate
with increasing temperature (Applegate et al., 1981; Jones et al. 1982).
Although most researchers have preIerred the use oI maximum temperature as the
primary predictor oI mortality, others continue to utilize average daily temperature as
their primary weather statistic. While Kutschenreuter (1959) Iound that maximum
temperat ure with a 1-day lag was the single most important predictive
weather/mortality variable, Rogot (1973) worked strictly with daily average
temperature to evaluate cardiovascular diseases; others have even used weekly
averages (Lye and Kamal, 1977; Callis a nd LeDuc, 1985). Those who use daily
averages cite the importance oI warm nights in contributing to mortality, something
that is neglected when utilizing maximum temperatures alone (Ellis et al., 1975).
However, others report that daily averages tend to m ask the eIIect on mortality oI
large daily oscillations in temperature (MacFarlane and Waller, 1976).
A number oI studies compare death rates Ior extreme periods with those encountered
during normal meteorological periods; this approach has met with some success
(Oechsli and Buechley, 1970; Schuman et al., 1964; Schuman, 1972). Jones et al.
(1982), in sum marizing the work oI others, Iound that high temperature, the number
oI days that the temperature is elevated, high humidity, and low wind velocity are all
Iound within the climate/mortality models oI various researchers (Figures V-2 /a~
and V-3). An earlier work by Schuman (1972) includes smog as a related mechanism
associated with Iluctuations in death rate (Figure V-4).
Rather than incorporating daily death totals, many heat wave/mortality studies have
utilized weekly mortality totals compiled by the Centers Ior Disease Control Ior their
primary input (Centers Ior Disease Control, 1984). Schuman (1972) calculated
expecte d weekly death rates based on a 5-year moving mean, and periods oI weekly
excess mortality were isolated. Callis and LeDuc (1985) compared weekly mortality
rates to weather Ior 10 U.S. cities and uncovered some large weather-induced
Iluctuations. In gener al, studies incorporating weekly data sets are less revealing than
their daily counterparts, as extreme episodes are oIten dampened when time scales are
increased.
One oI the most commonly reported Iindings in heat wave-mortality studies involves
the lag time between the temperature event and the mortality response. A lag period oI
one day was most oIten uncovered (Ellis, 1972; Ellis et. al., 1975; Ellis and Nelson,
1978); others, however, have observed a two-to three-day lag (Schuman, 1972;
Oechsli and Buechley, 1970), and some have noted no lag (Kalkstein and Davis,
1985).
Temperature aIIects not only mortality, but also morbidity. Applegate et al. (1981)
demonstrated the relationship between temperature and morbidity. In that study, as
shown in Figures V-5 and V-6, he Iound that emergency room hospital visits and
admissions appear to be correlated with the 1980 heat wave in Tennessee.