Assignment

ON
Technical Analysis (Stock Market) reference to
ICICI BANK

Submitted to: Esha Jain

Designation: Ass. Prof.

Submitted by: Vivekanand Vashisath

Reg. No.: 10P35F0468
Name of the Specialization: Finance

(Academic Session 2010-12)

Introduction:
CICI Bank is India's second-largest bank with total assets of Rs. 4,062.34 billion (US$ 91 billion)
at March 31, 2011 and profit after tax Rs. 51.51 billion (US$ 1,155 million) for the year ended
March 31, 2011. The Bank has a network of 2,540 branches and 7,037 ATMs in India, and has a
presence in 19 countries, including India.

ICICI Bank offers a wide range of banking products and financial services to corporate and retail
customers through a variety of delivery channels and through its specialized subsidiaries in the
areas of investment banking, life and non-life insurance, venture capital and asset management.
The Bank currently has subsidiaries in the United Kingdom, Russia and Canada, branches in
United States, Singapore, Bahrain, Hong Kong, Sri Lanka, Qatar and Dubai International Finance
Centre and representative offices in United Arab Emirates, China, South Africa, Bangladesh,
Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia. Our UK subsidiary has established branches in Belgium and
Germany.
ICICI Bank's equity shares are listed in India on Bombay Stock Exchange and the National Stock
Exchange of India Limited and its American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) are listed on the New
York Stock Exchange (NYSE)

Technical Analysis:
Meaning:

A method of evaluating securities by analyzing statistics generated by market

activity, such as past prices and volume. It dont attempt to measure securitys intrinsic values,
but instead use charts and others tools to indentify patterns that can suggest future activity.

Technical analysts believe that the historical performance of stocks and markets are indications of
future performance. In a shopping mall, a fundamental analyst would go to each store, study the
product that was being sold, and then decide whether to buy it or not. By contrast, a technical
analyst would sit on a bench in the mall and watch people go into the stores. Disregarding the
intrinsic value of the products in the store, the technical analyst's decision would be based on the
patterns or activity of people going into each store.

Objectives of Technical Analysis

Market Monitoring: The main objectives of technical analysis are to be able to profit from
trading by observing market patterns and statistics, to know when to enter and exit a market,
especially when it starts to shift, and to not let emotions influence trading decisions. Technical
analysis is based on the emotional trading of the uninformed masses, it is only effective in auction
markets, where many buyers and sellers converge to 1 pointbe it the floor of an exchange or a
websitewhere the public price is determined by the highest bid price and the lowest ask price.

SCOPE OF THE STUDY:

The project entitled A study on the performance of ICICI Bank based and technical analysis will enable from
investor point of view to refer the performance of the Banks, their relative growth and thereby decide on buy or sell the
particular slab. This study will also help to identify the bank that is lagging behind in its performance.

OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

PRIMERY OBJECTIVE

To analyze the various factors which influence the share price of ICICI bank Ltd.

SECONDREY OBJECTIVE

To analyze the market value of ICICI bank

To offer suggestions and recommendations based on the findings.
To study the performance of ICICI Bank.

Start Date

End Date

High

Low

Close
Price

Price
Range

Price Range
%

08/11/2011 11/11/2011 889.35

816.7

821.00

72.65

8.90

31/10/2011 04/11/2011 953.65

859.2

884.30

94.45

10.99

24/10/2011 28/10/2011

935.0 852.65

933.35

82.35

9.66

17/10/2011 21/10/2011

907.9 866.05

870.55

41.85

4.83

10/10/2011 14/10/2011

900.0 816.15

890.40

83.85

10.27

03/10/2011 07/10/2011

860.0

761.4

824.45

98.60

12.95

26/09/2011 30/09/2011 897.35

833.0

875.40

64.35

7.73

904.8 838.35

843.75

66.45

7.93

12/09/2011 16/09/2011 894.95 840.05

883.90

54.90

6.54

05/09/2011 09/09/2011

928.0

855.3

896.80

72.70

8.50

29/08/2011 02/09/2011

899.7

835.0

887.15

64.70

7.75

19/09/2011 23/09/2011

1200

1000
884.3
821

933.35

870.55 890.4

824.45

875.4

843.75

883.9

896.8 887.15

800
P
r
i
c
e

600

High

400

Low

200

Close
Price

1200
1000
800

953.65 935
928 899.7
907.9 900
897.35 904.8 894.95
860
933.35
884.3
883.9 896.8 887.15
875.4
870.55 890.4
843.75
824.45
821

889.35

Price(Rs.) 600

High
Low

400

Close Price

200
0

Start Date

End Date

03/10/2011

High

Low

Close Price

Price Range

Price Range %

31/10/2011 953.65

761.4

931.15

192.25

25.25

02/09/2011

30/09/2011 928.0

833.0

875.40

95.00

11.40

04/08/2011

30/08/2011 1015.0

813.9

873.25

201.10

24.71

01/08/2011

30/08/2011 1059.7

813.9

873.25

245.80

30.20

04/07/2011

29/07/2011 1111.8

1003.6

1036.75

108.20

10.78

01/07/2011

29/07/2011 1111.8

1003.6

1036.75

108.20

10.78

02/06/2011

30/06/2011 1099.5

1003.4

1094.65

96.10

9.58

01/06/2011

30/06/2011 1099.5

1003.4

1094.65

96.10

9.58

02/05/2011

31/05/2011 1118.3

1003.0

1086.10

115.30

11.50

04/04/2011

29/04/2011 1139.0

1072.0

1114.45

67.00

6.25

01/04/2011

29/04/2011 1139.0

1072.0

1114.45

67.00

6.25

1200
1000

953.65

1015

1059.7

1111.8 1111.8 1099.5 1099.5 1118.3

928
1003.6 1003.6 1003.4 1003.4

800
600
Price
(Rs.)

761.4

833

813.9

813.9

400
200
0

Month

1003

1139

1139

1072

1072

Share Price History of ICICI Bank Ltd.

Date

High

Low

Open

Close

15 Day 50 Day
Moving Moving
Average Average

RSI

14/11/2011 839.45

813.75

837.9

821.0

879.46

870.147

31.5591 13.952

12/11/2011 857.0

816.7

856.25

821.0

883.16

870.404

39.036

11/11/2011 889.35

857.3

886.75

862.15 888.35

870.828

42.1682 23.5887

09/11/2011 887.0

870.65

884.5

881.3

890.233 870.628

47.9651 33.9035

08/11/2011 892.0

879.25

889.6

884.3

890.137 870.022

50.9626 43.7893

04/11/2011 891.6

869.05

880.0

878.05 888.497 868.979

53.7441 54.4342

03/11/2011 903.95

859.2

885.7

885.0

885.46

59.8945 69.5032

02/11/2011 923.5

892.5

917.95

895.0

882.637 869.19

31/10/2011 953.65

921.55

935.0

931.15 877.933 870.002

71.5556 81.1011

28/10/2011 935.0

911.5

911.65

933.35 867.807 870.178

76.5232 83.3907

25/10/2011 891.9

852.65

879.0

878.4

858.98

870.362

65.0535 79.818

24/10/2011 897.5

861.05

884.8

868.45 856.36

872.068

55.141

21/10/2011 883.3

866.55

880.0

870.55 856.823 873.502

49.2414 84.1641

20/10/2011 886.95

870.15

885.35

878.05 858.167 875.109

48.0684 87.3161

19/10/2011 907.9

888.0

888.0

904.15 857.547 876.878

55.4748 93.425

18/10/2011 888.05

866.05

888.0

876.5

856.34

878.658

48.4742 85.9325

17/10/2011 903.1

887.1

895.0

898.85 855.11

881.167

56.403

14/10/2011 900.0

872.1

877.0

890.4

851.437 883.624

57.1891 74.087

13/10/2011 888.8

866.0

875.5

879.85 849.567 886.723

52.6316 65.571

12/10/2011 863.35

833.75

840.0

859.7

850.99

889.861

44.0917 53.3558

11/10/2011 861.0

829.1

852.0

832.5

852.5

893.016

42.7301 36.3176

10/10/2011 847.8

816.15

824.9

842.65 854.3

896.864

47.6304 29.3982

07/10/2011 831.6

815.0

817.1

824.45 857.05

900.802

41.783

868.694

Stochastic

18.1533

59.8606 74.713

81.0087

83.6138

26.4047

1000
900
800
700
600
500

15 Day Moving Average

400

50 Day Moving Average

300

RSI

200
100
0

Mathematical Indicators:
Moving Averages: Moving Averages are mathematical indicators of the underlying the trend of
the price movement of shares. Two types of MA are commonly used by analysts:
A. Simple Moving Average: An average is the sum of share prices of a specific number of days
divided by the number of days. In a simple moving average, a set of moving average are
calculated for a specific number of days, each average being calculated by including a new
price and excluding an old price.

B. Exponential Moving Average (EMA):

This type of moving average reacts faster to recent price changes than a simple moving
average. The 12- and 26-day EMAs are the most popular short-term averages, and they are
used to create indicators like the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) and the
percentage price oscillator (PPO). In general, the 50- and 200-day EMAs are used as signals
for long term trends.

C. Money flow Index (MFI):

D. Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD):

E. Rate of change (ROC)

10

Date
18-Oct-11
19-Oct-11
20-Oct-11
21-Oct-11
24-Oct-11
25-Oct-11
26-Oct-11
28-Oct-11
31-Oct-11
01-Nov-11
02-Nov-11
03-Nov-11
04-Nov-11
08-Nov-11
09-Nov-11
11Nov-11
14-Nov-11
15-Nov-11
16-Nov-11
17-Nov-11

High
887
908
887
884
897
892
887
935
953
924
904
892
892
888
889

Low
867
886
870
867
863
853
864
907
921
892
875
869
880
871
858

Opening
886
886
886
878
889
877
887
909
933
920
886
880
890
880
886

Closing
879
904
878
870
869
877
872
933
931
895
887
878
835
881
863

Volume
344685
328752
458694
393886
317040
848398
158314
581926
881076
798469
587336
680056
596364
429801
656289

ROC
2.28
2.51
-2.55
0.78
2.92
2.43
-1.76
7.37
4.59
2.26
5.67
9.68
13.64
6.85
2.05

RSI
55.79
50.00
56.24
50.00
50.00
50.00
51.13
50.00
60.82
50.00
50.00
50.00
50.00
50.76
50.00

859
840
823
802
799

817
815
784
774
773

853
839
820
788
790

823
821
791
789
777

1195515
608092
648979
714968
586071

-1.25
-4.52
-10.04
-11.38
-11.6

50.00
50.00
50.00
50.00
50.00

Relative Strength Index (RSI):- A technical momentum indicator that compares the
magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in an attempt to determine overbought and oversold
conditions of an asset. It is calculated using the following formula:
RSI = 100 100 / (1 + RS*)
*Where RS = Average of x days' up closes / Average of x days' down closes.

11

12

17-Nov-11

15-Nov-11

13-Nov-11

11-Nov-11

9-Nov-11

7-Nov-11

5-Nov-11

3-Nov-11

1-Nov-11

30-Oct-11

28-Oct-11

26-Oct-11

24-Oct-11

22-Oct-11

20-Oct-11

18-Oct-11

1000000

400000

200000

0
17-Nov-11

15-Nov-11

13-Nov-11

11-Nov-11

9-Nov-11

7-Nov-11

5-Nov-11

3-Nov-11

1-Nov-11

30-Oct-11

28-Oct-11

26-Oct-11

24-Oct-11

22-Oct-11

20-Oct-11

18-Oct-11

1200

1000

800

600
High

400
Low

200
Closing

1400000
1200

1200000
1000

800

800000
600

600000

400

200

Volume

High

Low

Closing

Interpretation:
A

After analyzing three month (October- November) stock market using various indicators
(Moving average, exponential moving average, Rate of change, relative strength index, MACD)
the ICICI Bank stock price has seen constant declines since October-11.

Share price and volume fluctuates due to the supply and demand of stock. When the demand
of the stock more than its supply price moves up, other hand if the supply more than demand the
price slashed.

C. Share price also have to decline/increase on account of earning of the company when the firm
earn more profit, investors prefer to invest such firm and if the firm have not earn much profit or
threat of loss, the stock holder move to another, consequently supply and demand of stock take
place, fluctuation in share price and volume.

13

ASSUMPTION:
Stock Price has to change due to the supply and demand if more people want to buy
a stock (demand) than sell it (supply) the share price moves up.
Conversely if more people wanted to sell a stock than buy it there would be greater
supply then demand and the price would fall.
The most important factor that affects the value of a company is its earnings.
Earnings are the profit a company makes, and in the long run no company can
survive without them. It makes sense when you think about it.
If a company never makes money, it isn't going to stay in business. Public
companies are required to report their earnings four times a year (once each
quarter). Wall Street watches with rabid attention at these times, which are referred
to as earnings seasons. The reason behind this is that analysts base their future value
of a company on their earnings projection.
If a company's results surprise (are better than expected), the price jumps up. If a
company's results disappoint (are worse than expected), then the price will fall.

BIBLIOGRAPHY
Web link;
www.freestockchart.com
www.moneycontrol.com
www.investopedia.com
Book;
Security Analysis & Portfolio Management Punithavathy Pandian

14