Severe Weather Briefing Packet- Nov.

22,-23 2011---Page 1

In this update: Isolated severe thunderstorms expected overnight spreading generally from west to east. Damaging winds is the main threat although a brief tornado or two remains possible.

Overview

A low pressure system moving through the Mid-West will drive cold air and strong winds in the middle levels of the atmosphere into the Southeast United States. At lower level, southerly wind flow will usher in unseasonably warm moist air. This combination of weather features is conducive to severe thunderstorm activity.

Severe Weather Briefing Packet- Nov. 22,-23 2011---Page 2

Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

The latest severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center places much of the region within a Slight Risk for severe weather, due to the combination of strong wind shear and modest instability. This outlook is valid through Wednesday morning.

Severe Weather Briefing Packet- Nov. 22,-23 2011---Page 3

Wind and Tornado Threat

Under this type of setup, straight line wind damage is most likely in our area. However, there remains a threat for tornado development with this system. If conditions change, the tornado threat may increase. It is advised to check back with the NWS later in the day for an updated assessment. The threat for large hail is very small for this event (not shown).

Severe Weather Briefing Packet- Nov. 22,-23 2011---Page 4

Timing of Severe Weather

The severe weather is expected to move into southeast Alabama just before midnight. Most locations in the Florida Panhandle and southwest Georgia will be affected in the pre-dawn hours. The Florida Big Bend may see activity last into Wednesday morning. Timing of this system will continue to be evaluated as the adverse weather moves into the southeast U.S. Check back with the NWS for updates in case timing changes.

Severe Weather Briefing Packet- Nov. 22,-23 2011---Page 5

Key Points for this event: Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected to move into the far western FL panhandle and southeast AL around and just after midnight tonight. Primary threats will be damaging winds and perhaps an isolated tornado. Any threat will shift slowly eastward overnight. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be required for tonight (especially for western and northern areas of the County Warning Area). The National Weather Service in Tallahassee will continue to monitor this system closely today. If you have any questions, please give our office a call at 850-942-8833 or on our toll free line at 800-598-4562 and ask to speak to a meteorologist. We are available 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. You can also reach us on our Southern Linc phone at 1*77*184.