1fba6sampling Distributions 1

Amity Business School
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Sampling Distributions
RSR
Sampling Distributions
A sampling distribution is created by, as the name suggests,
sampling. There are two ways to create a sampling distribution.
The first is to actually draw samples of the same size from a
population, calculate the statistic of interest, and then use
descriptive techniques to learn more about the sampling
distribution.
The method we will employ on the rules of probability and the
laws of expected value and variance to derive the sampling
distribution.

For example, consider the roll of one and two dice
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Sampling Distribution of the Mean
A fair die is thrown infinitely many times,
with the random variable X = # of spots on any throw.

The probability distribution of X is:

and the mean and variance are calculated as well:
x 1 2 3 4 5 6
P(x) 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6
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All Samples of Size 2 from a Population
A sampling distribution is created by looking at all samples of
size n=2 (i.e. two dice) and their means
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1.0 1/36
1.5 2/36
2.0 3/36
2.5 4/36
3.0 5/36
3.5 6/36
4.0 5/36
4.5 4/36
5.0 3/36
5.5 2/36
6.0 1/36
P( )
1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0
6/36

5/36

4/36

3/36

2/36

1/36
P
(

)

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Compare
Compare the distribution of X

with the sampling distribution of .

As well, note that:
1 2 3 4 5 6 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0
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Generalize
We can generalize the mean and variance of the sampling of two dice:

to n-dice:
The standard deviation of the
sampling distribution is
called the standard error:
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It is important to recognize that the distribution of is
different from the distribution of X. However the two
random variables are related.
Their means are the same and their variances
are related
X
) 2 (
2 2
o o =
x
) 5 . 3 ( = =
x

2
o
If we now repeat the sampling process with the same
population but with other values of n, we produce
somewhat different sampling distributions of when
n = 5, 10 and 25.

2
x
o
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The variance of sampling distributions of is less than the
variance of the population were sampling from all the sample
sizes.
Thus, a randomly selected value of (the mean of the number
of spots in, say five throws of the die) is likely to be closer to
the mean value of 3.5 than is a randomly selected value of X
(the number of spots observed in one throw). Indeed this is
what one would expect, because, in five throws of the die one
is likely to get some 5s and 6s and some 1s and 2s, which will
tend to offset one another in averaging process and produce a
sample mean reasonably close to 3.5. As the number of throws
of the die increases the, the probability that the sample mean
will be close to 3.5 also increases. Thus we observe that the
sampling distribution of becomes narrower as n increases.

X
X
X
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Central Limit Theorem
The sampling distribution of the mean of a random sample drawn from
any population is approximately normal for a sufficiently large
sample size.

The larger the sample size, the more closely the sampling distribution
of X will resemble a normal distribution.
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Central Limit Theorem
If the population is normal, then X is normally distributed for all
values of n.

If the population is non-normal, then X is approximately normal only
for larger values of n.

In most practical situations, a sample size of 30 may be sufficiently
large to allow us to use the normal distribution as an approximation
for the sampling distribution of X.
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Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean
1.

2.

3. If X is normal, X is normal. If X is nonnormal, X is approximately
normal for sufficiently large sample sizes.
Note: the definition of sufficiently large depends on the extent of
nonnormality of x (e.g. heavily skewed; multimodal)
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We can express the sampling distribution of the mean
simple as

n /
X
Z
o

=
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The summaries above assume that the population is infinitely large.
However if the population is finite the standard error is

where N is the population size and

is the finite population correction factor.

1 N
n N
n
x
o
= o
1 N
n N

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If the population size is large relative to the sample size the
finite population correction factor is close to 1 and can be
ignored.

We will treat any population that is at least 20 times larger
than the sample size as large.

In practice most applications involve populations that qualify
as large.

As a consequence the finite population correction factor is
usually omitted.
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Contents of a 32 - Ounce Bottle
The foreman of a bottling plant has observed that the
amount of soda in each 32- ounce bottle is actually a
normally distributed random variable, with a mean of
32.2 ounces and a standard deviation of .3 ounce.
a. If the customer buys one bottle, what is the
probability that the bottle will contain more than
32 ounces?
b. If a customer buys a carton of four bottles, what is
the probability that the mean amount of four
bottles will be greater than 32 ounces?
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Distribution of X and Sampling Distribution of X
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Solution
a. Because the random variable is the amount of soda in
one bottle, we want to find:
P ( X > 32), Where X is normally distributed, = 32.2,
and o = .3. Hence,

( )
7486 . 2486 . 5 .
) 67 . (
3 .
2 . 32 32
32
= + =
> =
|
.
|
\
|
>
= >
z P
X
P X P
o

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Distribution of X and Sampling Distribution of X
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Solution
b. Now we want to find the probability that the mean
amount of four filled bottles exceeds 32 ounces. That
is, we want . From our previous analysis
and from the central limit theorem, we know the
following:
( )
9082 . 4082 . 5 .
) 33 . 1 (
15 .
2 . 32 32
32
= + =
> =
|
|
.
|
\
|
>
= >
z P
X
P X P
x
x
o
( ) 32 > X P
15 . 4 3 . ) ( . 3
2 . 32 . 2
. 1
2
= = =
= =
n
d distribute normally is X
x
x
o o

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In the example, we began with the assumption that both
and were known.
Then, using the sampling distribution, we made a
probability statement about mean.
Unfortunately the values of and are not usually known,
so an analysis such as that in this example cannot usually
be conducted.
However, we can use the sampling distribution to infer
something about an unknown value of on the basis of a
sample mean.

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EXERCISE
The number of pizzas consumed per month by university
students is normally distributed with a mean of 10 and a
standard deviation of 3.
a. What proportion of students consume more than 12
pizzas per month?
b. What is the probability that, in a random sample of
25, students, more than 275 pizzas are consumed?
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Solution
|
.
|
\
|
>
3
10 12
= 12) > P(X
o
X
P
= P(Z > .67) = .5 P(0 < Z < .67)

= .5 .2486

= .2514

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EXERCISE
The number of customers who enter a supermarket each
hour is normally distributed with a mean of 600 and a
standard deviation of 200. The supermarket is open 16
hours per day. What is the probability that the total
number of customers who enter the supermarket in one
day is greater than 10,000?
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Solution
= .5 P(0 < Z < .50)

= .5 .1915

= .3085
.50) > P(Z =
16 / 200
600 625
/
) 625 (
) 16 / 000 , 10 (
|
|
.
|
\
|
>
=
> =
>
n
X
P
X P
X P
o

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Salaries of a Business Schools Graduates
In the advertisements for a large university, the dean of
the School of Business claims that the average salary of
schools graduates one year after graduation is $ 800 per
week with a standard deviation of $ 100. A second year
student in the business school who has just completed his
course would like to check whether the claim about the
mean is correct. He does a survey of 25 people who
graduated one year ago and determines their weekly
salary. He discovers the sample mean to be $ 750. To
interpret his findings he needs to calculate the probability
that a sample of 25 graduates would have a mean of $ 750
or less when the population mean is $ 800 and the
standard deviation is $ 100.
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Amity Business School

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Amity Business School

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