Professional Documents
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14,725
12,600
Source: ET = Economic Times, BS = Business Standard, FE = Financial Express, Aug-07 Oct-07 Dec-07 Feb-08 Apr-08 Jun-08 Aug-08
Key Highlights
Summary table n Management indicated slowdown in real estate and road building: L&T
has indicated that it witnessing slowdown in few pockets of real estate, con-
(Rs mn) FY08 FY09E FY10E
struction, road building and construction equipments. Under recovery of crude
Sales 293,504 378,341 467,238 price is also squeezing the cash flow of oil marketing companies thereby ham-
Growth (%) 43.1 28.9 23.5 pering their ability to undertake capital expenditure.
EBITDA 35,916 47,293 58,405
EBITDA margin (%) 12.2 12.5 12.5 n Despite this, confident of delivering robust growth in FY09 and FY10:
Net profit 23,254 32,113 40,332 L&T indicated that it is in a confident position to surpass its revenue growth tar-
EPS (Rs) 81.7 110.0 138.1 get of 30% in FY09. L&T notched a revenue growth of 53% yoy in Q1 FY09
Growth (%) 3.8 38.1 25.6 reflecting sustained momentum in project execution. The company indicated
DPS (Rs) 12.6 12.6 12.6 that current year order inflows are expected to grow at 30% which should pro-
ROE (%) 26.6 27.2 26.2
vide a base for driving revenues in FY10. The company sees power generation
ROCE (%) 16.5 18.2 21.2
and railways as the new areas that should see strong activity in coming years.
EV/Sales (x) 2.7 2.1 1.7
EV/EBITDA (x) 22.0 16.6 13.4 Currently, BHEL is the leader in power generating equipment in India with a
P/E (x) 31.4 23.3 18.5 dominant market share in the state-utility based projects. L&T expects to
P/BV (x) 7.0 5.8 4.2 emerge as the second alternative to BHEL which has been facing capacity con-
Source: Company, Kotak Securities - Private straints at various levels. L&T has in the current year won a Rs.15.6 bn order for
Client Research the Steam Turbine Generator package of 2 x 800 MW Sri Thermal Power Sta-
tion at Krishnapatnam, Andhra Pradesh.
On Chinese competition, the company believes that the Chinese sets are cost-
competitive due to high level of standardization in design and the export sub-
sidy in the form of a fixed exchange rate. However, the track record of the Chi-
nese has not been very encouraging.
n L&T's manufacturing capability has been approved by major nuclear
equipment makers: L&T indicated that it is expected to deliver nuclear reactors
for two projects that are based on Indian radioactive fuel. The company indi-
cated that experts from GE, Areva and Alstom have conducted visits at its facili-
ties. The company's technology capabilities have been approved by these
nuclear majors. L&T expects to receive substantial business once the nuclear
deal goes through and investment starts flowing into this sector. The company
also intends to work with major nuclear equipment suppliers and position itself
to export nuclear reactors in the future.
n Targeting specialized vessels like LNG carriers in shipbuilding: L&T indi-
cated that it not focusing on large bulk carriers but complex and specialized ves-
sels like LNG Carriers. LNG carriers vessels require greater technical sophistica-
tion and typically have a price that is 2-3x of similar size vessels in bulk carriers.
Kotak Securities - Private Client Research Please see the disclaimer on the last page For Private Circulation 2
MORNING INSIGHT September 2, 2008
n Employee attrition has been kept under check: L&T indicated that ita vari-
ous initiatives like employee retention bonds, sponsored higher education and
Esops have been resulting desired results thereby leading to a 1% drop in em-
ployee attrition.
Order book n Margins likely to be maintained: L&T indicated that it has been successful to
a large extent in convincing government agencies to provide variable pricing on
Q2 FY09 Rs bn
its orders. A majority of orders have input variable clauses built into it.
Equipment contracts in steel sector 15.8
Wheel mfg plant 10.5 n Expecting order inflows to rise by 30% plus. L&T has indicated that it ex-
Transmission line for JSW power 4.45 pects to see order inflows to rise by a minimum of 30% in the current year. The
Source: Company
company reported order booking of Rs 122 bn in Q1 FY09. Thus, the company
would have to report growth in order inflows of 32% in Jul-Mar 09 period to
reach its target of Rs 546 bn plus in order booking.
Valuation
At the current price, L&T is trading at 23.3x and 18.5x FY09 and FY10 earnings re-
spectively. The stock commands a premium due to its superior execution capabili-
ties and ability to enter new industry verticals like power generation, ship building
and defence. The company has invested in several large infrastructure projects like
ports (Dhamra and Kakinada port), roads and highways and real estate ventures.
There exists significant value unlocking potential in these ventures.
Consolidated earnings are expected to grow at a CAGR of 30% between FY08-10.
We are expecting significant order inflows for L&T's power generation equipment
division over the next 2-3 years timeframe, which will drive growth in the coming
years.
Valuations
Parameter Fair Value Per share
Kotak Securities - Private Client Research Please see the disclaimer on the last page For Private Circulation 3
MORNING INSIGHT September 2, 2008
18000 5050 What we are seeing is that, the markets are searching for direction in the backdrop
of conflicting macro indicators. On the negative side, the US economy continues to
16000 4700 face headwinds in the form of falling home prices and write offs relating to the
sub-prime crisis. Domestically, inflation moved up during the month to 12.63%
14000 4350 before retreating slightly to 12.4%.
12000 4000 On the positive side, we have seen commodity prices, especially crude and metals
Feb
Mar
Jan
Jun
May
July
Aug
Apr
cool off in the international markets. This has provided a breather on the inflation
front (impact seen in the week ended August 16). Also, the monsoon progressed
satisfactorily during the month, covering almost all the deficit states and providing
Source: Bloomberg
additional relief.
We continue to maintain that, global commodities, mainly crude, should seek and
settle at lower levels (while we are no experts at predicting oil prices), based on
fundamentals and that the monsoons should lead to better-than-earlier expecta-
tions on the agriculture front.
Based on this premise, we estimate inflation and consequently interest rates, to be
near their peaks (moderate increase possible). We also reason that, any significant
increase in interest rates will be a further threat to GDP growth, which is already
moderating (7.9% in 1QFY09). Any unexpected spike in global commodity prices is
the key risk to our assumptions.
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
IT
Metal
Oil
Healthcare
FMCG
Capital Goods
Nifty
Small Cap
PSU
Auto
Sensex
Midcap
Bankex
Source: Bloomberg
Kotak Securities - Private Client Research Please see the disclaimer on the last page For Private Circulation 4
MORNING INSIGHT September 2, 2008
FII & MF investment (Rs cr) We also continue to maintain that, at 14,000 levels the known concerns would be
almost discounted. At those levels, valuations look fair based on FY09E consensus
FII MF sensex EPS estimates and attractive based on FY10E consensus estimates.
20,000 We maintain our optimistic view on the markets with a longer term view especially
15,000
10,000 at the current valuations. However, we had become cautious and will become cau-
5,000 tious at about 15500 levels, because of valuations.
-
(5,000) We continue to recommend a bottoms-up approach and accumulating large caps
(10,000) along with select mid-caps, which have sound fundamentals and are available at
(15,000)
(20,000) reasonable valuations. We recommend buying in beaten-down sectors like Con-
struction, Power, Capital Goods, Engineering, Banking, Mining, Logistics and Food
Oct
Oct
Feb
Feb
Jun
Jun
Jun
Dec
Dec
Aug
Aug
Aug
Apr_06
Apr
Apr
Kotak Securities - Private Client Research Please see the disclaimer on the last page For Private Circulation 5
MORNING INSIGHT September 2, 2008
8.5 It was after a gap of 28 weeks that, inflation had seen a downward movement.
What was more important is that, the WPI itself came down on a week-on-week
6.5
basis, indicating actual fall in prices. The fuel price index and some of the commodi-
4.5 ties helped bring down the inflation rate.
2.5 However, we believe that, some impact of the rising sugar prices (about 3.6%
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Aug-05
Aug-06
Aug-07
Aug-08
Apr-05
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
weight) may be felt in the near term, Sugar prices have risen by about 25% in the
recent past. Also, there can be unexpected increases in global commodity prices,
putting further strain on inflation.
Source: Bloomberg GDP growth moderated to 7.9% in 1QFY09 on the back of the monetary and fiscal
steps initiated by the RBI and Government, respectively. This was marginally lower
than the consensus estimates and also equal to the RBI's target rate for the fiscal.
We are already seeing moderation as compared to 9.2% in 1QFY08 and 8.8% in
4QFY08.
Jul-08
Feb-05
Feb-06
May-05
May-06
Jan-07
May-07
Jan-08
Nov-05
Nov-06
Oct-07
Aug-05
Aug-06
Apr-08
Jul-06
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Oct-05
Oct-06
Oct-07
Apr-05
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Source: Bloomberg
Kotak Securities - Private Client Research Please see the disclaimer on the last page For Private Circulation 6
MORNING INSIGHT September 2, 2008
Recommendation
During July, the crude prices and monsoon have shown favourable trends. We con-
tinue to maintain that, global commodities, mainly crude, should seek and settle at
lower levels (while we are no experts at predicting oil prices), based on fundamen-
tals and that the monsoons should lead to better-than-earlier expectations on the
agriculture front.
Based on this premise, we estimate inflation and consequently interest rates, to be
near their peaks (moderate increase possible). We also reason that, any significant
increase in interest rates will be a further threat to GDP growth, which is already
moderating (7.9% in 1QFY09). Any unexpected spike in global commodity prices is
the key risk to our assumptions.
At current levels, the valuations at about 14x FY09 consensus sensex EPS estimates
do not look demanding. We maintain our optimistic view on the markets with a
longer term view especially at the current valuations.
We continue to recommend a bottoms-up approach and accumulating large caps
along with select mid-caps, which have sound fundamentals and are available at
reasonable valuations. We recommend buying in beaten-down sectors like Con-
struction, Power, Capital Goods, Engineering, Banking, Mining, Logistics and Food
Processing. We also recommend select exposure in IT, Pharmaceuticals and Hotels.
We remain negative on the cement sector (unless there is a sustained and signifi-
cant rise in prices and a corresponding improvement in margins, which we do not
expect).
The following are our preferred picks from among the sectors we cover:
Preferred picks
Sector Stocks
Banking Axis Bank, ICICI, HDFC Bank, Union Bank, BoB, Indian Bank
Construction Punj Lloyd, IVRCL, Simplex Infra, Unity Infra, Sunil Hi Tech
Engineering Cummins India, Hindustan Dorr Oliver, Larsen & Toubro, BHEL
Food Processing Riddhi Siddhi Gluco
Hotels Indian Hotels
IT Infosys, Satyam, Infotech
Logistics GDL, Mundra Port
Media Jagran Prakashan, PVR
Metals & Mining Sesa Goa
NBFCs LIC Housing, SREI Infra, PFC
Oil & Gas GSPL, Petronet LNG
Pharmaceuticals Lupin, Glenmark, Opto Circuit, Torrent Pharma
Other Midcaps AIA Engg, Everest Kanto, Nitin Fire, Numeric, JBF
Kotak Securities - Private Client Research Please see the disclaimer on the last page For Private Circulation 7
MORNING INSIGHT September 2, 2008
Source: BSE
Kotak Securities - Private Client Research Please see the disclaimer on the last page For Private Circulation 8
MORNING INSIGHT September 2, 2008
Gainers
ONGC 1,031 0.8 2.8 0.8
ITC 192 1.7 2.0 2.4
HDFC Bank 1,298 1.7 1.5 0.7
Losers
Bharti Airtel 816 (2.5) (6.7) 1.6
Infosys Tech 1,723 (1.5) (2.4) 1.4
NTPC 173 (1.0) (2.3) 3.1
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Research Team
Dipen Shah Awadhesh Garg Saurabh Agrawal Siddharth Shah
IT, Media, Telecom Pharmaceuticals, Hotels Metals, Mining Telecom
dipen.shah@kotak.com awadhesh.garg@kotak.com agrawal.saurabh@kotak.com siddharth.s@kotak.com
+91 22 6621 6301 +91 22 6621 6304 +91 22 6621 6309 +91 22 6621 6307
Sanjeev Zarbade Apurva Doshi Saday Sinha Shrikant Chouhan
Capital Goods, Engineering Logistics, Textiles, Mid Cap Banking, Economy Technical analyst
sanjeev.zarbade@kotak.com doshi.apurva@kotak.com saday.sinha@kotak.com shrikant.chouhan@kotak.com
+91 22 6621 6305 +91 22 6621 6308 +91 22 6621 6312 +91 22 6621 6360
Teena Virmani Saurabh Gurnurkar Sarika Lohra K. Kathirvelu
Construction, Cement, Mid Cap IT, Media, Telecom NBFCs Production
teena.virmani@kotak.com saurabh.gurnurkar@kotak.com sarika.lohra@kotak.com k.kathirvelu@kotak.com
+91 22 6621 6302 +91 22 6621 6310 +91 22 6621 6313 +91 22 6621 6311
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