Bangladesh in 1987: A Spectrum of Uncertainties Author(s): Syed Serajul Islam Reviewed work(s): Source: Asian Survey, Vol.

28, No. 2, A Survey of Asia in 1987: Part II (Feb., 1988), pp. 163-171 Published by: University of California Press Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2644817 . Accessed: 26/11/2011 05:50
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BANGLADESHIN 1987
A Spectrum of Uncertainties

Syed Serajul Islam

Bangladesh presented a grim picture in 1987. The nation witnessed the proclamation of an emergency for the second time since independence.1 A continuous political impasse between the forces of the government and those of the opposition political parties during November compelled President Hussain Muhammad Ershad to proclaim a state of emergency in the country. During the year many yawning gaps between promises and performance also were revealed as devastating floods combined with political unrest left an adverse impact on the economy of the country. The downward trend in the economy was evident on all frontsproduction, savings and investment, foreign aid and foreign trade operations. Internationally, Bangladesh continued to maintain its "friendshipto all," but the year did not produce any signs of imminent breakthrough on critical issues in its relations with India and Pakistan.

Politics:Urgefor a Consensus
From the time he took power in 1982 General Ershad had continuously tried to civilianize his regime, and the process was completed by the end of 1986. The opposition political parties were in a fix and remained inactive in the earliest days of 1987. However, the situation changed with the year's first session of the Jatiyo-Sangsad (parliament) on January 24 when the 8-Party Alliance, led by the Awami League's Sheikh Hasina Wajed, staged a noisy walkout while the opposition 7-Party Alliance, headed by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party's Khaleda Zia, held a street rally to try to force the Parliament's dissolution. The 8-Party Alliance, which was the main opposition inside Parliament and had boycotted its first two sessions
Syed Serajul Islam is Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science, University of Dhaka. ? 1988 by The Regents of the University of California 1. The first emergency was declared on December 18, 1974. Subsequently, the constitution was amended transforming Bangladesh from a parliamentary to a presidential system.

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in 1986, participated in the opening session of 1987 but refused to listen to the inaugural speech of a "self-proclaimed"president and walked out. On the other hand, the 7-Party Alliance demanded dissolution of the existing Parliament and the resignation of President Ershad so that there would be a fresh election that would ensure its parliamentary participation. The 5Party left-leaning conglomerate and the fundamentalist Jamaat-e-Islami also expressed their support for the demands of the 7-Party Alliance. Despite the agitation of the opposition, the alliances failed to forge a unified movement. The 8-Party Awami Alliance was not happy with the demand for dissolution of the Sangsad as it was already in it. This lack of unity provided the regime with the advantage of ruling without any meaningful opposition. The 7-Party and 5-Party coalitions at this stage realized that they would not be effective unless they dropped their demand for the dissolution of Parliament. Therefore, instead of opposing the government and the 8-Party Alliance simultaneously, they altered their strategy to face the former singly and to make efforts to neutralize the latter. Both alliances now concentrated on a single objective-the resignation of President Ershad. Accordingly, they issued a countrywide call for a march on the capital city on March 24 to protest the "illegal takeover by the military regime from an elected government." The date marked the fifth anniversary of President Ershad's accession to power, and the regime planned to observe it as the "golden day." The opposition alliances called it the "black day." The government, however, reportedly refused permission to hold any rally in the metropolitan area of Dhaka. Facing a weak opposition, the government planned to pass its budget for fiscal 1987-1988 with enhanced taxes, and put through a bill on the participation of the armed forces in the zila parishads (district councils). At this point, the Awami alliance realized that its presence in the Jatiyo-Sangsad did not contribute much to its stature since nothing was happening in the Parliament that it could do anything about. The ruling Jatiyo-Party (JP) had a majority in the Sangsad and the presence of the Awami League (AL) was an advantage for the regime. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), on the contrary, was gaining popularity by "sticking to the persistent demand for Ershad's resignation."2 The AL also felt that as long as the BNP remained outside Parliament, the streets would be the main political battleground of the opposition. The Awami alliance, therefore, expressed its desire to join in a united action opposition program. Consequently, all three alliances-8-Party, 7-Party, and 5-Party-and the Jamaat-e-Islami agreed to observe a countrywide, half-day hartal (general
2. Far Eastern Economic Review, July 30, 1987, p. 33.

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strike) on June 21 in protest against the proposed budget and the Local Government (zila parishad) Amendment Bill, 1987. This was the first time since March 21, 1986, that the opposition had manifested its wrath against the regime through a joint action program.3 And the issue that inspired the alliances to unite was not the budget but the zila parishad bill. If the bill passed, President Ershad's position would be solidified so intensely that no agitation would be possible since the army would have control at the lower tiers of the administrative units. In the wake of the success of the hartal call, the opposition alliances observed "demand week" beginning June 22, with countrywide rallies and demonstrations against the "anti-people" budget and calls for an end to the "autocratic" rule of the Ershad regime. Despite the joint program of hartal and "demand week," the opposition alliances drifted apart again as the 8-Party Alliance remained under pressure from the others to resign from Parliament in order to strengthen the antigovernment movement. Sheikh Hasina reiterated her pledge to continue movement "both inside and outside the Parliament." Meanwhile, the 1987-1988 budget was placed before Parliament and the AL staged another walkout. But the ruling JP, with its majority, had no problem passing the budget, and it also was able to push through the zila parishad bill on July 12 allowing the military "non-voting representation"on the 64 district councils in Bangladesh. The bill sparked immediate protests, strikes, and processions by trade unionists and student organizations that lasted for two days. The opposition political parties declared a 54-hour hartal, claiming that the bill was the first step toward institutionalizing the military within the civil administration. During the hartal, protesters burned cars, ransacked buildings, and encircled the Bangladesh Secretariat building for 90 minutes; at least seven persons reportedly died and more than a hundred were injured. Consequently, in August the zila parishad bill was sent back to Parliament by the president to be reviewed, but it never was discussed again in the Sangsad. The opposition's success in resisting the zila parishad bill through a hartal inspired the alliances to go for a hardline movement. They now adopted a common plan for October 7 for laying siege to the capital city and paralyzing the government administration. The date was subsequently shifted to November 10 due to the devastation caused by severe floods throughout the country. The government took a number of precautionary measures prior to November 10, including the arrest of a few lead3. Since Ershad's rise to power in 1982, the opposition political parties had jointly organized movements against the regime. However, there was a crack in the unity of the opposition when the Awami alliance decided to participate in the parliamentaryelection of 1986.

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ers of the opposition, cessation of train service, massive requisition by government of buses and trucks plying interdistrict routes, and physical blockades of people moving toward Dhaka by the law-enforcing agency. The police actions resulted in hartals for two consecutive days, November 11 and 12. Both Khaleda and Hasina were arrested by the police and interned at their residences, and the government issued a "shoot-at-sight" order against arsonists and looters. The opposition then prolonged its hartal program on November 14 and 15 and expressed its determination to continue the movement until President Ershad fell. It succeeded in enforcing strikes almost every day until November 24; then from November 29 to December 1, it observed a continuous nationwide 72-hour hartal. A grim picture of deteriorating order prevailed in the country. Consequently, President Ershad proclaimed a state of emergency throughout Bangladesh on November 27 in pursuance of Article 141 A (1) of the constitution. All fundamental rights were suspended; local newspapers and reporters, both national and international, were strictly advised not to report any activities of the opposition; and while politics and political parties were not banned, full restrictions were imposed on political activities. Ataus Samad, the BBC correspondent in Bangladesh, was arrested and detained under the Special Powers Act, and all BBC operations were closed. On the following day, November 28, President Ershad addressed the nation to explain the reasons for proclaiming the emergency. He called the opposition's program since November 10 "planned anarchy," and "planned terrorism";he emphasized that he would not surrender to any terrorism or "illegal and undemocratic pressure," and that any change in the government should follow the procedures prescribed in the constitution. The president put forward four specific proposals to arrive at a satisfactory solution to the situation in conformity with national interest: (1) the government was ready to discuss all reasonable issues, individually or collectively, with the opposition political parties; (2) if a consensus about new elections could be arrived at through discussion, then polls could be held at a date acceptable to all, if necessary ahead of schedule; (3) the government would implement all measures framed on the basis of consensus and acceptable to all for the holding and management of fair elections; and (4) if any party obtains the mandate of the majority of the people through elections and wants to amend the constitution in the Parliament, there would be no opposition from his side.4 Within a day or two of the president's address, a few opposition leaders, but not Khaleda and Hasina, were released in order to expedite negotia4. The New Nation (Dhaka), November 29, 1987.

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tions between the government and the opposition. All this, however, did not improve the situation. All ten Jamaat-e-Islami MPs and three independent members relinquished their seats in the Sangsad in order to intensify the opposition movement, and the AL was also seriously considering resignation from the body. At this stage President Ershad, in accordance with the power conferred on him under the constitution, dissolved the Sangsad on December 6 to pave "the way for holding fresh polls to get an electoral mandate on various national issues including the constitution." The Jatiyo-Sangsad of 1987 was the shortest-lived of any parliament in Bangladesh, and this was the first time an elected president had to resort to this provision of the constitution in the face of a political crisis. Four days after Parliament was dissolved, Khaleda Zia and Sheikh Hasina were released. President Ershad urged the opposition political parties to participate in the midterm election, scheduled to be held within 90 days of the dissolution, and the government allowed indoor politics and TV and radio coverage for the opposition. But all such moves proved futile as both Khaleda and Hasina rejected them, saying that they would not contest any election under the present government. They reiterated their demand that President Ershad resign and that elections take place under a "neutral caretaker" government. The Liaison Committee of the 21 opposition parties urged the upazila (subdistrict) chairmen to resign and to observe dawn-to-dust hartals on December 22 and 23. While the opposition movement continued, the government planned to hold a nonpartisan or independent election, restricting candidates from using the name of any political party. This left the nation in a state of suspended animation. Thus, while the Ershad regime did not collapse, the opposition did not budge an inch from its demands. What made the November-December movement different from the past was the scale, quantity, and quality of repressed violence bursting forth. It is, however, unlikely that the opposition political parties can force Ershad to resign through hartals and processions. Only the military could overthrow him and, for now at least, Ershad still enjoys the support of the armed forces. Perhaps the eventual alternative for resolving the deadlocked situation in the nation's politics will be the imposition of martial law again in Bangladesh.

The Economy: TrailingBehind the Target

The political unrest from the beginning of the year, with hartals and strikes in the industrial belts, and the unprecedented floods in SeptemberOctober engulfing about one third of the territory had an adverse impact on all sectors of the economy. The nation observed more than 30 days of

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hartals and strikes, and one estimate put the loss suffered by the economy during the month of November alone at $200 million in terms of production.5 While floods are a common phenomenon in Bangladesh, the magnitude of devastation wrought by the floods in 1987 surpassed all past records, affecting about 20 million people in 51 of the country's 64 districts in terms of both life and property. According to an official estimate, about 500 people died and thousands were marooned on embankments and highways. Crops on 2.5 million acres of land were completely destroyed, while those on 1.5 million acres were damaged. Floods also damaged innumerable roads, bridges, culverts, and large buildings. According to a World Bank estimate, Bangladesh lost roughly 1.2 million tons of rice (valued at $350 million), which along with damage to infrastructure, caused a 25% gap between food grain production and requirements in 1987. Consequently, the growth rate of production during the year was very low. The GDP grew only 4.4% against the target of 5% during fiscal 1986-876 and, due to the 1987 losses, the government forecast only a 2.5% growth rate in 1987-88 against the budgetary target of 5.1%. The Planning Commission now estimates a 2% decrease in agricultural production against the official target of a 3.7% increase during 1987-88, and it has also revised its food production target from 17.5 million to 15.5 million tons for the same period.7 Industries were under similar strains. By the end of June, the GDP growth rate in industry was 7.4%, but in the July-September quarter industry registered a fall of 5% in jute textile production, 4.7% in cotton textiles, 2.5% in cotton yarn, 12% in paper, and 11.5% in steel production, compared to the previous quarter. Therefore, industrial production will, it seems, decrease against the projection of an 8.7% increase for fiscal 1987-1988. Bangladesh's terms of trade also declined sharply. The country set a target of $1000 million in 1987 from exports as against earnings of $980 million in 1986, but earnings dropped during the second half of the year. The country lost some export markets, particularly in the garment sectors, as buyers were not confident about on-time delivery of goods. Investors, both national and foreign, also displayed uncertainty. Since overall export earnings did not improve, the balance of payments deteriorated in 1987. In 1972, the first year of Bangladesh's existence, the total foreign debt was $65.1 million; in 1987 it had increased to $7557.1 million. Thus Bangla5. Holiday (Dhaka), December 18, 1987, p. 1. 6. Ministry of Finance, Bangladesh Economic Survey, 1986-87 (Dhaka: Government of Bangladesh) (in Bengali), p. 1. 7. Courier, 4:21 (December 25, 1987), p. 14.

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desh's export earnings had not increased appreciably with respect to the increment of external loans.8 Disbursement of the considerable foreign aid commitment (both grant and loan) also was not satisfactory. The above trend in the Bangladesh economy indicates that it will continue under heavy strains during the 1987-1988 fiscal year. The downward trend in the rate of production and foreign trade will accelerate in the coming months as production has been practically paralyzed. In all likelihood, the period will end up with a GDP 2% less than that of fiscal 1986-1987.

ExternalRelations: No Major Breakthroughs

Bangladesh has achieved a high level of success in its diplomatic efforts during the last few years, but in 1987 no significant progress was made in external relations. Bangladesh could not solve many of the bilateral issues that exist, either with India or Pakistan. Nor were any of these unresolved issues expedited when the heads of state or government of the SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) countries assembled in Kathmandu, Nepal, for a three-day summit in November and discussed numerous multilateral issues. In the second half of 1987, Bangladesh made significant moves toward strengthening ties with China, including President Ershad's three-day visit to the country, which aroused India's suspicion. Bangladesh-India relations are still facing jolts on the questions of repatriation of Chakma refugees from camps in India, sharing of Ganges water, and transfer of the Tin-Bigha corridor to Bangladesh. Bangladesh also failed to make any progress with Pakistan toward solving the problem of repatriatingstranded Pakistanis. The distribution of assets and liabilities with Pakistan has virtually become a dead issue. Outside the region, however, Bangladesh made efforts to strengthen relations with France, Japan, and Rumania. The French and Japanese foreign ministers and the president of Rumania all paid first-time official visits to the country. The Japanese minister's visit in August produced agreement by Japan to offer all sorts of economic aid to Bangladesh, continuing the generous assistance it has been providing since Bangladesh became independent in 1971 (in 1980 Bangladesh became the largest recipient of Japan's bilateral Official Development Assistance (ODA) program in terms of net disbursement). In February, Bangladesh's foreign minister paid a six-day official visit to Japan, and to Poland and Bulgaria in May.
8. Bangladesh Bank, Economic Trends (Dhaka: Government of Bangladesh, August 1987), p. viii.

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During the Rumanian president's visit in March, the two sides agreed to diversify their economic cooperation and signed four different agreements on economic (two on investment promotion and protection and long-term economic arrangements), scientific, and cultural cooperation. Trade with Rumania has been confined mainly to barter, with $5-6 million worth of goods going in each direction, but it appears that Rumania has been showing keen interest in developing its relations with Bangladesh. Bangladesh maintained its fraternalrelations with the Muslim countries, many of which offered massive relief during the floods, including six helicopters from the Iraqui government to transport relief materials to remote areas. In July President Ershad paid an official visit to the Yemen Arab Republic (North Yemen), the first by a Bangladeshi head of state and seen as a significant move toward opening up new avenues for trade, culture and economic cooperation. In April the visit of the deputy foreign minister of Oman resulted in the signing of an air service agreement between the two countries. Bangladesh's relations with Iran, however, were considerably chilled in 1987, and the foreign minister's planned visit to Iran in July was postponed on the pretext of his indisposition. Bangladesh's principal success in the international arena in 1987 was the receipt in June of the United Nations Population Award by President Ershad. The president was cited for his "personal leadership" in directing family planning efforts that increased contraceptive use from 18.6% of the population in 1981 to 29.6% in 1985, reducing the annual population growth from 3.2% to 2.4%.9 In other areas, a ministerial level meeting of the Asian Group of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) was held in March in Dhaka. The resulting Dhaka Declaration noted with concern the continuing and increasing erosion of multilateralism and its substitution by bilateral arrangements, ignoring and bypassing the multipolarity and diversity of the contemporary world economic scene. Finally, Bangladesh joined the Commonwealth summit in Vancouver, Canada, in October where important issues such as the world economic situation, Commonwealth financial cooperation, and multilateral trade negotiation figured prominently.

Conclusion
Following the civilianization of the military regime in 1986, the year 1987 brought new developments to Bangladesh. The formal end to martial law with the holding of parliamentaryand presidential elections could not dispel the earlier moods of frustration of the opposition alliances. The oppo9. Asia Week, June 28, 1987, p. 33.

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sition political parties observed hartals and strikes throughout the year, demanding the resignation of President Ershad and leading to the proclamation of emergency. Closely related to the dynamics of the domestic political situation was the downward trend in the state of economic affairs. The journey to a stable democratic polity is still a remote vision to which the nation eagerly looks forward. Once John F. Kennedy said, "let us never negotiate out of fear but let us never fear to negotiate." An emphasis on "negotiations" is perhaps essential for resolving the deadlocked situation in the politics of Bangladesh in 1987.