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Apollo Tyres
Performance Highlights
Y/E March (Standalone) Net sales (` cr) EBITDA (` cr) EBITDA margin (%) Reported PAT (` cr)
Source: Company, Angel Research
BUY
CMP Target Price
% chg (yoy) 34.2 (20.7) (575)bp (43.0) Angel est. 1,490 142 9.5 49 % diff. 18.2 3.0 (123)bp 35.2
`71 `82
12 Months
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
For 4QFY2011, Apollo Tyres reported better-than-expected top line on a standalone as well as consolidated basis, driven by strong volume growth and higher prices. Standalone operating margin came below expectations due to a steep increase in natural rubber prices, while consolidated margin benefitted due to gain of `90cr on account of pension and inventory revaluations. We retain our revenue and earnings estimates for the company and maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock. Standalone results beat estimates: Standalone top line registered strong 34.2% yoy (23% qoq) growth to `1,762cr, led by higher volumes (up 14% yoy) and prices. After three straight quarters of declining volumes, the company reported higher volumes in 4QFY2011, led by pick-up in demand in the replacement segment. Operating margin declined considerably by 575bp yoy and 209bp qoq to 8.3% mainly due to the 60% yoy and 16% qoq increase in natural rubber cost. Thus, net profit recorded a sharp 43% yoy decline to `66cr, though sequentially it grew by 22.8%. Noticeably, higher other income and lower tax rate on account of MAT credits positively helped the companys bottom line. Consolidated revenue up 27.4% yoy, net profit rises 10% yoy: Consolidated net revenue grew by 27.4% yoy (15.2% qoq) to `2,730cr due to a 12% yoy increase in volumes and a 15.6% jump in average realisation. In 4QFY2011, revenue of South African and European operations grew by 31% and 10% yoy, respectively. Operating margin declined by 215bp yoy to 11.8%, but improved by 24bp qoq. Operating performance benefitted due to gain of `90cr on account of pension and inventory revaluations. Net profit grew by 9.6% yoy (59.4% qoq) to `193cr. Outlook and valuation: We remain positive on the tyre industry in view of the structural shift that the industry is going through. We expect the company to deliver a healthy revenue CAGR of 15.3% over FY201113E, as the production ramp up at the Chennai facility continues as scheduled. However, volatile raw-material prices are a concern, and we expect margins to remain under pressure. We estimate the company to post EPS of `10.3 in FY2013. We maintain our Buy view with a target price of `82, valuing it at 8.0x FY2013E earnings.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 44.3 15.1 27.3 13.3
3m 4.8 38.5
FY2010 8,117 62.5 653.4 369.5 14.6 13.0 5.4 1.8 29.8 29.2 0.6 4.1
FY2011E 8,868 9.2 440.8 (32.5) 11.0 8.7 8.1 1.5 16.9 15.5 0.7 6.0
FY2012E 10,520 18.6 397.1 (9.9) 9.7 7.9 9.0 1.3 13.1 13.1 0.6 5.8
FY2013E 11,798 12.1 519.4 30.8 10.6 10.3 6.8 1.1 16.0 14.9 0.5 4.6
Amit Bagaria
022-39357800 Ext: 6824 amit.bagaria@angelbroking.com
Yaresh Kothari
022-3935 7800 Ext: 6844 yareshb.kothari@angelbroking.com
4QFY11 1,762 1,262 71.6 75 4.2 48 2.7 232 13.2 1,615 146 8.3 44 39 17 81 81 4.6 14 17.9 66 3.8 50.4 1.3
4QFY10 1,313 851 64.8 72 5.4 40 3.0 166 12.7 1,128 185 14.1 20 29 9 144 144 11.0 28 19.3 116 8.8 50.4 2.3
% chg 34.2 48.3 4.4 20.1 39.2 43.2 (20.7) 118 32 92.2 (43.9) (43.9) (47.8) (43.0)
FY2011 5,491 3,695 67.3 307 5.6 159 2.9 796 14.5 4,957 534 9.7 149 147 26 264 264 4.8 65 24.8 198 3.6 50.4
FY2010 5,037 3,022 60.0 289 5.7 152 3.0 789 15.7 4,253 784 15.6 74 123 11 598 598 11.9 183 30.6 415 8.2 50.4 8.2
%chg 9.0 22.3 6.0 5.1 0.8 16.6 (31.9) 101.9 20.0 141.6 (55.9) (55.9) (64.4) (52.2)
(43.0)
3.9
(52.2)
Net revenue up 34.2% yoy, ahead of estimates: The companys standalone top line registered better-than-expected growth of 34.2% yoy to `1,762cr (`1,313cr) in 4QFY2011, backed by a strong 14% yoy increase in volumes and a ~17% increase in realisation following the increase in prices. Domestic volumes, which were impacted due to the lockout at the Perambra facility during 1HFY2011 and slowdown in the replacement demand for CV tyres in 3QFY2011, registered an improved performance during the quarter. For FY2011, Apollo Tyres witnessed revenue growth of 9% yoy to `5,491cr, primarily led by a 16% increase in realisation as volumes declined by 7%. The replacement segment contributed 66% to the companys top line, while contribution of OEM and exports stood at 26% and 8%, respectively.
Operating margin declined to 8.3% due to higher natural rubber prices: On the operating front, the company reported a substantial 575bp yoy and 209bp qoq contraction in operating margin to 8.3%. The decline in margin can be attributed to the 60% yoy and 16% qoq increase in the cost of natural rubber. As a result, raw-material cost as a percentage of net sales jumped by 680bp yoy to 71.6% in 4QFY2011 vs. 64.8% in 4QFY2010. However, the decline in staff cost during the quarter arrested the margin contraction to a certain extent. As a result, operating profit fell by 20.7% yoy to `146cr.
10.4
10.3
10.4
8.3
1QFY09
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
Net profit at `66cr, down 43% yoy: Net profit registered a steep decline of 43% yoy to `66cr, higher than our estimate of `49cr. The decline in profitability was largely due to margin contraction at the operating level. Higher interest cost and depreciation also negatively affected the companys bottom-line performance. However, lower tax outgo on account of MAT credits and higher other income benefitted the bottom line to a large extent. Exhibit 6: Net profit dips on margin contraction
(` cr) 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Standalone performance
(%) 10 9 8 7 6 5 3.8 4 3 2 1 0
3.6
3.2
3.8
4QFY11 4QFY10 2,730 1,592 58.3 250 9.2 149 5.5 417 15.3 2,408 321 11.8 54 74 17 210 210 7.7 18 8.4 (0) 193 193 7.1 50.4 3.8 3.8 2,143 1,202 56.1 297 13.9 108 5.1 237 11.1 1,845 298 13.9 13 64 13 235 (87) 322 15.0 59 18.4 263 176 8.2 50.4 5.2 3.5
% chg FY2011 FY2010 27.4 32.4 (15.8) 37.3 76.0 30.5 7.7 332.7 14.8 27.7 (10.4) (34.7) (70.3) (26.8) 9.6 8,868 4,821 54.4 1,155 13.0 481 5.4 1,432 16.2 7,890 978 11.0 185 272 26 547 547 6.2 106 19.4 1 (0) 440 440 5.0 50.4 (26.8) 9.6 8.7 8.7 8,121 4,152 51.1 1,088 13.4 429 5.3 1,277 15.7 6,946 1,175 14.5 115 254 21 827 (87) 914 11.3 261 28.5 653 566 7.0 50.4 13.0 11.2
%chg 9.2 16.1 6.1 12.2 12.2 13.6 (16.8) 60.5 7.0 23.2 (33.8) (40.1) (59.2) (32.6) (22.2)
(32.6) (22.2)
Consolidated performance: Net revenue reported strong 27.4% yoy and 15.2% qoq to `2,730cr on the back of better-than-expected performance in domestic markets and improvement in operations at the South African subsidiary. Overall performance was aided by a 12% yoy increase in volumes to 125,000MT and a ~16% yoy jump in realisation. Revenue of South Africa operations increased by 31% yoy to `354cr, while Europe reported 10% yoy growth to `623cr. Operating margin at the consolidated level declined by 215bp yoy mainly due to increased raw-material cost pressures. However, sequentially, the operating margin improved marginally by 24bp. Operating performance during the quarter benefitted due to gain of `90cr on account of pension and inventory revaluations. Net profit increased by 9.6% yoy and 59.4% qoq to `193cr.
Investment arguments
Tyre industry set for a structural shift: Currently, manufacturing radial tyres is far more capital intensive than manufacturing cross-ply tyres. Investment required for radial tyres per tpd is 3.2x that of cross-ply tyres at `6.1cr/tpd. On the other hand, the selling price of radial tyres is ~20% higher than that of cross-ply tyres. Thus, to generate similar RoCE and RoE, tyre companies would need to earn EBITDA margins of ~21% compared to ~9% earned on cross-ply tyres, considering the difference in the capital requirements and consequent impact on asset turnover, interest cost and depreciation. Therefore, higher capital requirements will help protect margins from upward-bound input costs, as the business model evolves bearing in mind final RoEs rather than margins. With the sector set for a structural shift and the apparent pricing flexibility, RoCE and RoE of tyre manufacturers are expected to improve going forward. Riding on high domestic demand: The Indian tyre industry is witnessing strong demand from the replacement as well as OEM markets, keeping capacities running at peak. Apollo is poised to achieve market leadership on the back of increasing production from 820tpd in FY2010 to ~1,300tpd in FY2012E. Strategic overseas investment offers synergies in the long term: Acquisitions done by the company in the last two-three years are increasingly contributing to its revenue. We estimate Vredestein Banden combined with Dunlop SA to contribute 30% to the companys overall consolidated revenue, helping it to further strengthen its foothold in the Indian tyre industry. Acquisitions offer synergies by way of access to radial tyre technology, wider product portfolio and presence in newer geographies.
FY13E 10.3
10,520 7.9
Jun-06
Jan-06
Mar-08
Nov-06
Feb-09
Jan-10
Jun-10
May-07
Nov-10 Nov-10
Oct-07
Jul-05
Sep-08
Jul-09
May-06
May-11
Nov-10
Feb-04
Sep-07
Sep-03
Jul-09
May-06
May-11
Sep-08
Feb-09
Jul-05
May-07
Jul-09
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: * FY2012E and FY2013E EPS on consolidated basis
May-11
Dec-05
Dec-09
Jun-05
Jan-05
Jan-09
Jun-10
Jun-06
Aug-04
Mar-08
Aug-08
Jan-06
Apr-07
Nov-06
Nov-10
Nov-06
Mar-08
Apr-03
Oct-07
Jan-10
Jun-10
May-11
Feb-04
Sep-03
Sep-07
Dec-05
Jul-09
Dec-09
Jun-05
Aug-04
Aug-08
Jan-05
Nov-06
Mar-08
Apr-03
Apr-07
Jan-09
Jun-10
10
(517) (3,533)
(513) (3,527)
11
Key Ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value DuPont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) RoIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating RoE Returns (%) RoCE (Pre-tax) Angel RoIC (Pre-tax) RoE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage (EBIT/Interest) 0.3 0.6 5.3 0.4 1.2 2.6 0.7 1.1 6.9 0.9 2.3 3.8 0.8 2.3 3.6 0.7 1.8 4.4 2.4 53 26 58 28 2.4 49 20 47 27 2.1 36 23 43 19 1.4 57 36 62 30 1.4 52 37 63 30 1.4 52 37 62 26 23.9 27.3 21.3 13.2 14.2 8.4 29.2 26.0 29.8 15.5 14.1 16.9 13.1 12.9 13.1 14.9 15.0 16.0 10.0 0.7 2.7 18.1 8.0 0.5 22.8 5.9 0.7 2.6 10.1 9.5 0.3 10.3 11.5 0.7 2.9 23.6 7.4 0.6 32.7 8.0 0.8 2.1 13.2 7.1 0.8 18.3 6.7 0.8 2.0 10.1 6.0 0.9 13.8 7.4 0.8 2.1 11.6 6.0 0.8 15.8 5.5 5.5 8.2 0.5 24.1 2.8 2.8 5.3 0.4 26.8 13.0 13.0 18.1 0.7 39.0 8.7 8.7 14.1 0.5 47.9 7.9 7.9 14.2 0.8 55.8 10.3 10.3 17.8 1.5 64.3 12.8 8.6 2.9 0.7 0.8 6.4 1.9 25.6 13.3 2.6 0.6 0.8 9.7 1.7 5.4 3.9 1.8 1.1 0.6 4.1 1.3 8.1 5.0 1.5 0.7 0.7 6.0 1.1 9.0 5.0 1.3 1.1 0.6 5.8 1.0 6.8 4.0 1.1 2.1 0.5 4.6 1.0 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E
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Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Ratings (Returns) :
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