Technical Research Market outlook

Market, Beta, Sectors, Stocks

1. Market (Nordic, World): negative mid-term (1-3m) view reiterated - Long-term(1-2Y) trend with new long-term sell signals (first time since 2003). Mid-term down since Dec 2007. Short-term trading range market. 2. Beta Check : Same setup over the last 3-4 months - Growth > Value, Large > Small and Market>= Dividend 3. Sector Check; - Healthcare back to neutral m-t relative trend, l-t relative trend is down -Capital Goods, neutral relative trends versus market (both m-t and l-t)

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World Trend Matrix

Nordic: World, Nordic, Europe in primary downtrend. market up between 1-7% since this signal (negative performance). Mid-term trend down for all markets long-term
Trend (LT) Days 33 34 8 83 21 22 12 5 20 1152

Mid-term
Absolute Trend % since % since signal Slope Days signal Slope 5% -2.4% 84 -7% -5.9% 5% -2.3% 81 -10% -5.2% 7% -1.1% 62 -10% -7.2% -11% -4.5% 103 -15% -5.6% 4% -1.9% 82 -10% -5.5% 2% -1.9% 74 -12% -4.7% 1% -1.1% 81 -9% -3.2% 0% -0.7% 68 -13% -4.8% 0% -1.6% 77 -9% -4.0% 98% 2.8% 46 -7% -4.5% Source:Carnegie Research, Datastream Trend (M-T)

MARKET DENMARK(KFX) FINLAND(HEX PORTFOLIO) NORWAY(OSLO ALL SHARE) SWEDEN(OMX SB) MSCI NORDIC MSCI EUROPE S&500 COMP. NASDAQ COMP. MSCI AC WORLD MSCI EMERING WORLD

Slope (on 40W mov.avg), signal for neutral is a level>-0.5%, for a buy >0.5%
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Trading model: weighted model: l-t & m-t trend models

MSCI NORDIC, TACTICAL ADVISORY MODEL-Since 2003
270 250 230 210 190 170 150 130 110 90 70 D-02 D-04 D-06 A-03 A-04 A-05 A-06 A-07 -1

MSCI L/S, when a sell signal =short MSCI Nordic, when a buy signal long MSCI Nordic Since 2000, yearly perf. 20% for L/S model, versus 1.1% for MSCI Nordic

9 7 5 3

buysignals

Buy& Hold

MSCI Nordic L/S

Buy/Sell Signals Source: Carnegie Research

sellsignals
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Global Beta Check

Growth>Value, Large>Small, Market>=High dividend Mid-term
Absolute Trend Trend (M-T) % since signal

Long-term
Trend (LT) Days 166 152 111 153 113 92 196 1084 1421 326 903

Beta Check
NORDIC GROWTH/VALUE EUROPE GROWTH/VALUE WORLD GROWTH/VALUE NORDIC SMALL/LARGE EUROPE SMALL/LARGE WORLD SMALL/LARGE NORDIC HIGH DIV,/MARKET EUROPE HIGH DIV./MARKET WORLD HIGH DIV./MARKET IMPAX50//MSCI WORLD MSCI BRIC/MSCI WORLD

% since signal Slope 12% 9% 3% -4% 0% -1% -9% -5% -1% 40% 95%

Days

Slope

4.2% 7 -2% 1.5% 1.7% 4 0% 1.2% 1.6% 35 1% -0.2% -2.8% 20 -1% -0.4% -2.3% 8 2% 0.3% -2.4% 5 0% -0.7% -3.9% 12 0% -0.6% -0.5% 1229 -6% -0.2% -0.7% 550 -5% -0.2% 6.4% 15 0% -2.0% 7.4% 6 3% -1.2% Source:Carnegie Research, Datastream

Carnegie Securities Research

Sector Matrix
Capital Goods with neutral trends versus market(m-t & l-t), Energy&Utility, Telecom and Technology in l-t relative uptrend.

absolute trend
Absolute Trend Trend (LT) Days 13 20 90 60 13 113 242 99 154 19 335 41 78 182 Trend (M-T) % since signal -11% -15% -16% -9% -4% -10% -12% -10% 2% -6% -13% -11% -11% -30% Sector NORDIC/CAPITAL GOODS NORDIC/CONSUMER STAP LES NORDIC/COMMERCIAL SVS NORDIC/CONSUMER DISCR NORDIC/ENERGY&UTILITY NORDIC/FINANCIALS NORDIC/HEALTHCARE NORDIC/MATERIALS NORDIC/SOFTWARE SVS NORDIC/TELECOM SVS NORDIC/TECHNOLOGY HD WR NORDIC/TRANSPORTATION NORDIC/STEEL AND MINING NORDIC/PAPER & PULP *Against local Benchmark % since signal Slope 3% -1% -3% -11% 7% -16% -22% -9% -8% -6% 11% 4% -5% -25% -1.6% -2.3% -4.1% -4.5% -0.2% -5.0% -4.2% -4.6% -4.4% -0.1% 1% -3.3% -6.3% -6.9% Days 81 88 190 77 71 102 99 102 88 29 81 91 98 203 Slope -5.5% -7.4% -4.1% -6.5% -5.9% -5.8% -4.9% -4.2% -1.7% -5.5% -6.4% -8.1% -5.5% -6.9%

Relative trend
Relative Trend* Trend (LT) Days 46 158 147 153 106 244 333 195 630 29 179 41 106 305 % since Trend signal (M-T) % since signal Days

12 2% 0% 8 -11% -1% 57 7% -2% 54 0% -1% 5 2% 1% 39 -7% -3% 4 -18% -1% 13 -7% 1% 20 -26% 0% 6 -16% 1% 26 2% 0% 132 5% -12% 5 -6% 2% 6 -26% -1% Source:Carnegie Research, Datastream

Carnegie Securities Research

DAX, in m-t & l-t downtrend, s-t tradingrange

trigger levels

7062 6800

50+200D mov.avg

Carnegie Securities Research

OMXS30, m-t, l-t trend down. S-T range 920-977

S:920, 870 R:977,1007(50D mov.avg) until break, s-t range trading

Carnegie Securities Research

S&P500(1349), in a l-t,m-t downtrend, s-t trading range

R1370,1400 S1340/1320

Carnegie Securities Research

The Carnegie Group Carnegie is an independent Nordic investment bank operating in Securities, Investment Banking and Asset Management & Private Banking. Carnegie provides a wide array of financial products and services to Nordic and international clients from offices in eight countries: Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Finland, Luxembourg, Switzerland, the UK and the US. Carnegie Investment Banking is the leading independent corporate finance advisor in the Nordic countries. Carnegie Asset Management and Private Banking provide financial services including asset management for selected institutions and private investors. The Carnegie Group was listed on the Stockholm Bourse on 1 June 2001. Rating and risk assessment structure Current rating system (as of 10 June 2003) Stock ratings: Carnegie stock ratings are relative to Carnegies coverage universe on a Nordic sector basis. Outperform (OP), the stock is expected to outperform the return on the Carnegie coverage universe of the Nordic Sector over the next six months. Neutral(N), the stock is expected to perform in line with the return on the Carnegie coverage universe of the Nordic Sector over the next six months. Underperform (U), the stock is expected to underperform the return on the Carnegie coverage universe of the Nordic Sector over the next six months. Other ratings: Not rated (NR), the investment rating , if any, has been suspended temporarily. Under review (UR), the investment rating , if any, has been suspended temporarily. Under bid (UB), the investment rating , if any, has been suspended temporarily. Sector view: Carnegies coverage universe on a Nordic sector basis is rated relative to the total Nordic market. Carnegies strategists in co-operation with the sector heads set the sector recommendation. Positive, The sector is expected to outperform the return on the total Nordic market over the next 6 months. Neutral The sector is expected to perform in line the return on the total Nordic market over the next 6 months. Negative: The sector is expected to underperform the return on the total Nordic market over the next 6 months. Risk assessment: The risk assessment is based on the analysts evaluation of the companys equity beta based on the business risk (asset beta) and financial risk (gearing). Low risk: estimated equity beta <0.75; Medium risk: estimated equity beta 0.75 to 1.25; High risk: estimated equity beta >1.25. Previous rating system: Strong Buy (SB), the stock is expected to provide a return of greater than 20% over the next 6 months. Buy(B), the stock is expected to provide a return of between 10% and 20% over the next 6 months. Accumulate(ACC), the stock is expected to provide a return of between 5% and 10% over the next six month. Reduce(R), the stock is expected to provide a return of between 0% and 5% over the next 6 months. Sell(S), the stock is expected to provide a return of less than 0% over the next 6 months. Analyst Certification The research analyst or analysts responsible for the content of this report certify that, not withstanding the existence of any such potential conflicts of interests referred to herein, the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views about the companies and securities covered. We further certify that we have not been, nor are or will be, receiving direct or indirect compensation related to the specific ratings or views contained in this report.

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Potential conflict of interest: As of 1 February 2003, Carnegie analysts and any connected persons are not ordinarily permitted to hold securities in the companies they cover.. As an integrated Nordic investment bank and asset management firm, Carnegie is a leading broker of Nordic stocks and has investment banking and other business relationships with a large number of the companies covered by its research department. Carnegie is constantly soliciting investment banking assignments. Therefore, any reader of this research report should assume that Carnegie is seeking or will seek investment banking or other business from the company or companies to which it refers. Thus, investors should assume that Carnegie expects to receive or intends to seek compensation from any company mentioned in this report within the next 3 months. Disclaimer: Carnegie offers stockbroking, investment banking and asset management services through companies based in the Nordic territories (Sweden, Denmark, Finland and Norway), Luxembourg, Switzerland and New York. Each company is regulated by the appropriate authority in the relevant territory and details of each company are available on request. Carnegie UK is the UK Branch of Carnegie Investment Bank AB, a company incorporated in Sweden with limited liability. Carnegie UK is regulated by the UK Financial Services Authority for the conduct of designated investment business in the UK. This report has been approved for the purposes of Section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by Carnegie UK and issued by it in the UK. This report is issued in the US by Carnegie, Inc., a US registered broker-dealer. This report is provided for informational purposes only and under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy any securities. The information in this report was obtained from various sources while all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information is true and not misleading, Carnegie does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Carnegie, its associated companies and any of their officers or directors may have a position, or otherwise be interested in, transactions in securities which are directly or indirectly the subject of this report. Carnegie, or its associated companies, may from time to time perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company mentioned in this report. This research report is prepared for general circulation and general information only. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Carnegie and its associated companies accept no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this report or its contents. Investors in the US should be aware that investing in non US securities entails certain risks. The securities of non US issuers may not be registered with, nor be subject to, the current informational reporting and audit standards of the US Securities and Exchange Commission. This report may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any recipient for any purpose. Copyright 2004 Carnegie.

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