Professional Documents
Culture Documents
OCTOBER, 2011
COMPLIANCE
Commodity trading involves substantial risks due in part to the highly speculative nature of such trading. As a result, an investment in a commodity trading account is only suitable if you have adequate means to provide for your current needs and contingencies. Trading in futures can result in loss that exceeds your investment. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results This presentation is for information purposes only and is not an offer to participate in a separately managed account with any Orchard Grove Asset Management trading program. An offer can only be made through receipt of the relevant disclosure and associated documentation. Please contact either Principal for a complete documentation package if you are interested in the relevant documents for our CTA separate account program. The information contained in this presentation is in outline form and is qualified in its entirety by the information included in the current separate account disclosure document.
An investment with Orchard Grove Asset Management is speculative and involves a substantial risk of loss. Please refer to disclosure documents for more complete information.
This material is CONFIDENTIAL and may not be distributed unless preceded or accompanied by the relevant disclosure document of Orchard Grove Asset Management and the permission of a Principal of Orchard Grove Asset Management.
THE TEAM
Judd & Mark have 27+ combined years trading futures They met as portfolio managers at another firm where they developed and ran a program together... Their success led them to start Orchard Grove Asset Management.
Judd Brody
Principal
17+ years trading futures Floor trading (CME, CBOT): 1993 2004 Off-floor (LBR AM, OGAM): 2004 Present Active NFA Registrations: Floor broker: 1993 - Present Associated Person and Principal of Orchard Grove Asset Management (2011) Expert in discretionary swing trading, technical analysis and interest rates BA, University of Wisconsin at Madison
Mark Greenstein
Principal
10+ years trading futures Proprietary 1999 2002 Asset management firm & own CTA: 2003 - 2008, LBR AM and now OGAM: 2010 Present 15 years management consulting experience at firms including Arthur D. Little and McKinsey & Co.
VALUES
1. We are Successful only if our Clients are Successful 2. Professionalism in Everything We Do 3. Deliver our Best to Every Client Regardless of Investment Size
4. Diversify 5. Create a Haven of Growth for our People
Strive for solid, non-correlated returns at a fair price Seek out client perspectives, and keep our relationship in total confidence Take long term business view Place our own capital alongside clients Be fastidious about managing risk Maintain absolute integrity and respect
Maintain an obligation to dissent with our clients, vendors and ourselves Ongoing research: markets (20+), patterns (10+), styles (trend, reversion, breakout) and trades (several daily) Be nonhierarchical, inclusive and caring to our clients, employees and vendors Practice continuous improvement
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. This is not a solicitation. Material provided is for information purposes only.
STRATEGY OVERVIEW
Generate absolute returns with reasonable risk and very low correlation to traditional asset classes and managed futures
Technically driven with a discretionary overlay
Robust, disciplined, quantitatively driven approach to managed futures. Intensive screen of 20+ futures markets, researching price, volatility, and correlation at the market, sector and portfolio level. Discretion is used for risk management and diversification
Humans With Experience Discretionary faster reaction to change in markets. Trading experience in every major crisis of the last 15 years
Intense focus: Short-term, discretionary swing program on 20+ exchange-traded futures markets using well-researched patterns enabled by proprietary technology
Active diversification across retracement, reversion and breakout; we are agnostic to trend following, sector, long/short
Further diversification across 25+ markets, patterns, and timeframe Short-term less risk in market and more capital efficient; enables diversification Innovative trade management we believe the game is won not on knowing when to get into a trade or even its direction, but knowing when and how to get out we have extensive research and technology dedicated to this Full boat research on market behavior constant rededication to the craft
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trading futures involves substantial risk of loss, and is not suitable for all investors. This is not a solicitation. Material provided is for information purposes only.
10. Low volatility reduces both the number of opportunities as well as their probability of success; best to stand aside
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trading futures involves substantial risk of loss, and is not suitable for all investors. This is not a solicitation. Material provided is for information purposes only.
PROGRAM HIGHLIGHTS
Performance
Assets Under Management: 3 million USD 14.7% compounded average annual ROR over the life of trading program (April 2010 to September, 2011)
2.6% maximum monthly drawdown (from July, 2011 September, 2011) ; 10% - 15% has been modeled and actuals may be higher
1.9% annualized standard deviation of monthly returns, 2.2 Sharpe ratio (RFR = 0%) Low or negative correlation to major performance indices
Program Facts
Daily liquidity and transparency into positions Notional funding available Clients choice of FCM Management/Incentive Fee 2%/20% High Water Mark $250K Minimum Investment
Risk Management
Diversification across trading patterns, timeframes and 25+ exchange-traded markets Trade size targeted to ~0.25% - 0.5% and adjusted for correlation and todays risk-on / risk-off character Margin/Equity: Maximum of ~6 8% and ~<= 6 positions at any one time Stops in market at trade initiation
Program performance from April, 2010 May, 2011 reflects that of individually managed accounts which the Principals directed while employed with LBR Group, Inc., a registered CTA and not Orchard Grove Asset Management. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trading futures involves substantial risk of loss, and is not suitable for all investors.
PERFORMANCE
Orchard Groves Active Diversified Program has surpassed both the S&P 500 as well as key Barclays and NewEdge indices.
Orchard Grove Performance Comparison
VAMI 1300 1250 1200 1150 1100 1050 1000 950 900
VAMI 22.8%
CAGR 14.7%
850
Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11
Orchard Grove
Program performance from April, 2010 May, 2011 reflects that of individually managed accounts which the Principals directed while employed with LBR Group, Inc., a registered CTA and not Orchard Grove Asset Management. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. This is not a solicitation. Material provided is for information purposes only.
CORRELATION COMPARISON:
Orchard Groves Active Diversified Program has been Generally Uncorrelated with Equities and Managed Futures
Orchard Grove Correlation Study
April 2010 - September 2011
1 0.8 0.6
0.4
0.2 0 Orchard Grove -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -1
Program performance from April, 2010 May, 2011 reflects that of individually managed accounts which the Principals directed while employed with LBR Group, Inc., a registered CTA and not Orchard Grove Asset Management. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. This is not a solicitation. Material provided is for information purposes only.
CORRELATION COMPARISON:
Orchard Groves Active Diversified Program can be an Effective Overlay to Existing Managed Futures Allocations
Barclays Discretionary Index Correlation Study
April 2010 - September 2011
1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 -0.2 Barclays Discretionary Index Barclays CTA Index S&P 500 Index Orchard Grove NewEdge Short-Term Trading Index
-0.4
-0.6 -0.8 -1
Program performance from April, 2010 May, 2011 reflects that of individually managed accounts which the Principals directed while employed with LBR Group, Inc., a registered CTA and not Orchard Grove Asset Management. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. This is not a solicitation. Material provided is for information purposes only.
MARKET DIVERSIFICATION
Orchard Groves Active Diversified Program Trades Aims for Diversification by Trading more than 25 Markets Across 8 Sectors.
Currencies (8) Australian $ British Pound Canadian $ Dollar Index Euro Currency Japanese Yen Mexican Peso Swiss Franc Energy (2) Crude Oil Natural Gas Equities (4) S&P 500 Nasdaq-100 Russell 2000 Euro-Stoxx 50 Grains (4) Corn Soybeans Soybean Meal Wheat Meats (2) Lean Hogs Live Cattle Metals (3) Copper Gold Silver Rates (3) 10-Year Note 30-Year Bond Euro Bund Softs (3) Cocoa Coffee Sugar
Drivers of Market Selection: Pattern / Model Triggered Bounded / Normal Volatility Correlation adjusted Discretion: bias undertraded markets to further increase diversification
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trading futures involves substantial risk of loss, and is not suitable for all investors. This is not a solicitation. Material provided is for information purposes only.
TRADING PROCESS
Metals Energies
Rates Currencies
Indices
Softs Grains
PROGRAM
Behind the Scenes We assemble ... We review ...
Environmental Conditions
Volatility to assess suitability for a pattern Degree of correlation and risk-on / risk-off Lower risk for major, scheduled events (e.g., FOMC)
Risk Management
We breathe...
0.25 0.5% risk per trade Stops at initiation <= 6 trades at one time
Producing protection
Trade Management
We apply...
Cleary defined exit strategy per pattern Proprietary trailing stop technology 7 X 24 hour trade management for entry and exit
Producing efficiency...
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trading futures involves substantial risk of loss, and is not suitable for all investors.
Retracement Trade:
Purple bars highlight momentum. Red bars indicate first pullback to setup the buy signal. Target is retest at previous swing high at 1.0598 (black line) with a stop at 1.0432 (gray line) based on proprietary model Trade size is based on a stop level to ensure that we do not risk more than 0.25 0.50%
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The placement of stop orders may not necessarily limit losses to the intended amounts since it may not be possible to execute such orders. Trading futures involves substantial risk of loss, and is not suitable for all investors. This is not a solicitation.
Stop Level
Stop Level
Breakout Trade:
Market in 3 day coil (dash lines) indicating equilibrium and potential for a breakout. The breakdown point (sell signal) is found at the swing low level of 30.31 The target is set at 29.70 which is established from our proprietary model The stop level is established from the middle of the equilibrium pattern set at 31.10 Trade size is based on the stop level to ensure that we do not risk more than 0.25 0.50%
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trading futures involves substantial risk of loss, and is not suitable for all investors. The placement of stop orders may not necessarily limit losses to the intended amounts since it may not be possible to execute such orders.
Target Level
VFM486