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Department of Mathematics MAL 250 (Probability and Stochastic Process) Tutorial Sheet No.

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1. Items coming o a production line are marked defective (D) or non-defective (N). Items are observed and their condition noted. This is continued until two consecutive defectives are produced or four items have been checked, which ever occurs rst. Describe the sample space for this experiment. 2. During a 24-hour period, at sometime X, a switch is put into ON position.Subsequently, at some future time Y (still during that same 24-hour period) this switch is put into the OFF position. Assume that X and Y are measured in hours on the time axis with the beginning of the time period as the origin. The outcome of the experiment consists of the pair of numbers (X, Y ). (a) Describe the sample space. (b) Describe and sketch in the X Y plane the following events i. The circuit is ON for one hour or less. ii. The circuit is ON at time z, where z is some instant during the given 24-hours period. iii. The circuit is turned ON before time t1 and turned OFF after time t2 , where again t1 < t2 are two time instants during the specied period. iv. The circuit is ON twice as long as it is OFF. 3. The probability that a person stepping at a gas station will ask to have his tires checked is 0.12, the probability that he will ask to have his oil checked is 0.29, and the probability that he will ask to have both of them checked is .07. What is the probability that he will get (a) neither of the two checked (b) exactly one of the two checked? 4. Given P (A) = .35, P (B) = .73 and P (A B) = .14. Find P (A B), P (A B), P (A B). 5. Consider a randomly chosen group of n persons. What is the probability that at least two of them have the same birthdays? 6. Consider a lottery that sells N tickets and awards n prizes. If one buys n1 tickets, what is the probability of winning a prize? 7. Six persons among whom are A and B, are arranged at random (i) in a row (ii) on a circle. What is the probability that A and B will be seperated by one and only one person. 8. A lot contains n articles. It is known that r of the articles are defectives and the articles are inspected in a random order what is the probability that the kth article inspected will be the rst defective one in the lot. 9. In a meeting at the UNO 40 members from under-developed countries and 4 from developed ones sit in a row. What is the probability no two adjacent members are representatives of developed countries. 10. A person wrote n letters, sealed them in n envelopes and wrote the n dierent addresses randomly one on each of them. Find the probability that at least one of the letters reaches its correct destination. 11. 15 power plants are distributed at random among 4 states. What is the prbability that exactly 2 states will receive none. 12. The nine digits 1, 2, . . . , 9 are arranged in random order to form a nine digit number. Find the prbability that 1,2 and 3 appear as neighbours in the order mentioned. 13. Suppose there are n distinguishable particles, each of which is equally likely to be in any of N cells (N n). Find the probability that (a) there will be one particle in each of rst n cells (b) there will be one particle in each of n arbitrary cells. 14. Solve the problems in Excercise 13 if n particles are indistinguishable.

15. The probability that both of a pair of twins are boys equals 0.32 and the probability that both of them are girls equals 0.32. Find the conditional probability that (a) both twins are boys, given one of them is a boy. (b) the both of twins are girls, given one is a girl. 16. An electronic assembly consists of two subsystems, say A and B .From previous testing procedures, the following probabilities assumed to be known: P(A fails)=0.20, P(A and B both fail)=0.15, P(B fails alone)=0.15 Evaluate the following probabilities (a) P(A fails/B has failed) (b) P(A fails alone /A or B fail) 17. Suppose that in answering a question on a multiple choice test an examinee either knows the anwser or he guesses. Let p be the probability that he will know the answer, and let 1 p be the probability that he will guess. Assume that the probability of answering a question correctly is unity for an examinee who knows the 1 answer and m for an examinee who guesses where m is the number of multiple choice alternatives. Find the conditional probability that an examinee knew answer to a question, given that he has correctly answered it. 18. The probability that an airplane accident which is due to structural failure is diagnosed correctly is 0.85 and the probability that an airplane accident which is not due to structural failure is diagnosed as due to structural failure is 0.15. If 30% of all airplane accidents are due to structural failure, nd the probability that an airplane accident is due to structural failure, given that it has been diagnosed is being to structural failure. 19. Let a sample of size 4 be drawn (a) with replacement (b) without replacement from an urn containing 12 balls of which 8 are white. Find the probability that the ball drawn on the third draw is white given that the sample contains three white balls. 20. Consider families of three children, Assume the child is a boy or a girl with equal probability. Show that events A=(at most one girl) B=(both sexes are represented) are independent. Is it also true in case of families with four children ? 21. Manufactured articles come in two colours A and B. The proportion of these colours are respectively 0.6 and 0.4. The proportion of articles having colour A and being defective is 0.12 and that for B it is 0.08. Show that events C=(article has colour A), D=(article is defective) are independent. 22. Let A be independent of B C, B C, B be independent of A C and C of A B. Show that A, B, C are independent if P (A), P (B), P (C) = 0. 23. The rst generation of particles is the collection of o-springs of a given particle. The next generation is formed by the o-springs of these members. If the probability that a particle has k o springs (splits into k parts)is pk , where po = 0.4, p1 = 0.3, p2 = 0.3, nd the probability that there is no particle in second generation. Assume particles act independently and identically irrespective of the generation. 24. Two dice are thrown n times in succession. What is the probability of obtaining a double six at least once? 25. Let an urn contain R red and N R white balls. Suppose balls are drawn one by one without replacement from this urn. Find the probability that the ball drawn at the kth draw is red. 26. A batch of N transistors is despatched from a factory. To control the quality of the batch the following checking procedure is used ;a transistor is chosen at random from the batch, tested and placed on one side. This procedure is repeated until either a pre-set number n(n < N ) of transistors have passed the test (in which case the batch is accepted) or one transistor fails (in this case the batch is rejected). Suppose that the batch actually contains exactly D faulty transistors. Find the probability that the batch will be accepted.

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